The Yankees' season is on the line in the Bronx. The Rays lead 2-0 and can clinch on the same field where they celebrated the division title two weeks ago, and the Yankees give the ball to Max Fried to keep the series alive. I'm taking the Yankees because tonight is the first game of this series where the pitching matchup favors them. Rasmussen at his best, then Peralta and Seymour, held them to two runs in 18 innings. Tonight they face Nick Martinez, whose 3.10 ERA sits well below his 3.98 xERA. He leans fly ball (0.67 GO/AO), and lefties hit 13 of the 22 home runs he allowed. He comes in off a 2.2-inning, 4-run, 50-pitch start and nine full days off, and this is his first postseason start. Boone puts six lefties against him in a park with a 314-foot right-field line. Martinez throws his sinker more than any other pitch, and it has given up a .356 xwOBA. Rice (.377), Bellinger (.377) and García (.360) all hit sinkers well, and Rice has a .961 OPS against righties. Grisham and Bellinger did almost nothing at the Trop, and both are much better at home: Grisham .844 at home against .574 on the road, Bellinger .919 against .628. Fried has the stronger underlying profile of the two starters: a 2.51 xERA, a 2.4% barrel rate allowed, and a 1.81 ERA in 7 career starts against Tampa Bay. Against a lefty, the Rays lineup gets soft after the top five: Hicks has a .516 OPS against lefties, Palacios .478 and Walls .541. Over their last 30 games the Rays have a .633 OPS against left-handed starters. Caminero (.916 against lefties) can beat Fried, and Fried's last home start against this team, 6.2 innings with 4 earned runs, is a real warning. The Rays also have Baker and Booser rested, and a loss costs them little because Rasmussen pitches tomorrow anyway. But in an elimination game Boone has no reason to save any arm, and the gap between these two starters is the biggest edge in this game. I'm taking the home team to extend the series.
The Yankees' season is on the line in the Bronx. The Rays lead 2-0 and can clinch on the same field where they celebrated the division title two weeks ago, and the Yankees give the ball to Max Fried to keep the series alive. I'm taking the Yankees because tonight is the first game of this series where the pitching matchup favors them. Rasmussen at his best, then Peralta and Seymour, held them to two runs in 18 innings. Tonight they face Nick Martinez, whose 3.10 ERA sits well below his 3.98 xERA. He leans fly ball (0.67 GO/AO), and lefties hit 13 of the 22 home runs he allowed. He comes in off a 2.2-inning, 4-run, 50-pitch start and nine full days off, and this is his first postseason start.
Boone puts six lefties against him in a park with a 314-foot right-field line. Martinez throws his sinker more than any other pitch, and it has given up a .356 xwOBA. Rice (.377), Bellinger (.377) and García (.360) all hit sinkers well, and Rice has a .961 OPS against righties. Grisham and Bellinger did almost nothing at the Trop, and both are much better at home: Grisham .844 at home against .574 on the road, Bellinger .919 against .628.
Fried has the stronger underlying profile of the two starters: a 2.51 xERA, a 2.4% barrel rate allowed, and a 1.81 ERA in 7 career starts against Tampa Bay. Against a lefty, the Rays lineup gets soft after the top five: Hicks has a .516 OPS against lefties, Palacios .478 and Walls .541. Over their last 30 games the Rays have a .633 OPS against left-handed starters. Caminero (.916 against lefties) can beat Fried, and Fried's last home start against this team, 6.2 innings with 4 earned runs, is a real warning. The Rays also have Baker and Booser rested, and a loss costs them little because Rasmussen pitches tomorrow anyway. But in an elimination game Boone has no reason to save any arm, and the gap between these two starters is the biggest edge in this game. I'm taking the home team to extend the series.
Yankees Moneyline