Rays at Yankees
O/U 6.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +128
- Published odds
- +128
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 4-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 6:35 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | Price |
| TOTAL | 6.5 (-115) | 6 (-102) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -155 | Yankees -150 | +5 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6.5 (-115) | Yankees -155 · Rays +125 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6 (-118) | Yankees -155 · Rays +125 |
| Sep 24 10:34 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6 (-115) | Yankees -155 · Rays +125 |
| Sep 24 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6 (-115) | Yankees -155 · Rays +130 |
| Sep 24 11:40 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6 (-115) | Yankees -150 · Rays +125 |
| Sep 24 4:56 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6 (-110) | Yankees -145 · Rays +118 |
| Sep 24 5:35 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6 (-102) | Yankees -145 · Rays +118 |
| Sep 24 5:50 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6 (-105) | Yankees -145 · Rays +118 |
| Sep 24 6:15 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6 (-110) | Yankees -145 · Rays +120 |
| Sep 24 6:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6 (-105) | Yankees -145 · Rays +118 |
| CLOSESep 24 6:35 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6 (-102) | Yankees -150 · Rays +125 |
The read
The AL East champs close out their Bronx stay against a Yankees club already tuning up for October. Cy Young frontrunner Cam Schlittler takes the ball against lefty Ian Seymour on a cool night with the wind blowing in. Everyone sees Schlittler's name and lays the chalk. I'm taking the dog.
Two things carry this pick: the Yankees' lineup card and their bullpen. With four left-handed regulars resting, New York sends six right-handed bats at a lefty who has been better against righties (.700 OPS allowed) than lefties (.817). The 13 mph wind in from left also cuts into right-handed pull power. The bottom of that order includes Anthony Volpe at .335 SLG and Austin Wells hitting .185. The late innings flip hard too. David Bednar has pitched two straight days, and he has pitched the day after back-to-back outings 0 of 11 times this season. Aaron Boone says he'll be "very selective" with Bednar, Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick. Tampa Bay's Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly and Cam Booser all had yesterday off. They anchor a pen with a 2.53 ERA over the recent stretch, against the Yankees' 3.98. If Schlittler hands the ball over after six in a tune-up game, the final innings belong to the Rays.
The case against me is real. Schlittler is the best arm in this game by a wide margin. Seymour's fly-ball profile (0.65 GO/AO, 10.4% barrels allowed) is exactly what Ben Rice, sitting on 41 homers, wants to see with the short porch in right. One swing can flip this. Even so, the market is overpaying for a fragile number. The ERAs read 1.94 against 4.38, but the xERAs read 2.85 against 3.65, so the gap the price assumes is bigger than the one on the field. Schlittler has also been more hittable at home, with a 2.98 ERA. With a total of 6, this sets up as a tight, low-scoring game that one late inning can decide. I want the rested bullpen and the plus money at +128.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.226 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.226Mesa has a 1.226 OPS over 37 AB in the last 15 days, 0.404 above his .822 season mark. At 37 AB, a couple of big games can move that a lot. His .822 OPS and 14 home runs are solid on their own. The total-bases line against the Yankees is 0.5, so any hit clears it, which leans on his contact more than on the hot streak.
COOLING OFF
Luis Garcia Jr.: .562 OPS in Last 15 Days
.562Garcia has a .562 OPS over 48 AB in the last 15 days against .832 for the season, 0.27 below his norm. It is a modest cool spell relative to his year. Forty-eight at-bats is enough to notice and too few to redefine him. In Rays at Yankees, his season level is the better baseline, and a market that overreacted to the dip could leave value.
Junior Caminero: .648 OPS in Last 15 Days
.648Caminero's dip covers 52 AB and sits 0.238 below his .886 season OPS. Even the cold version is close to a league-average bat, and his season line puts him among the more dangerous hitters around. Expect his numbers to drift back up, and don't overreact to the dip against New York.
BALLPARK
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 2.98 ERA
2.98Schlittler's 2.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium is the worse half of his split: he sits at 1.16 over 109.0 innings away. Hitters bat only .224 off him at home, and the home number covers 81.2 innings in 15 games, so both halves carry real weight. Against Tampa, he is a pitcher who limits contact, and the home park only takes a little off that.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Rays are 7-5 vs Yankees this season
7-5Tampa Bay leads the season series 7-5, but the Yankees won the last meeting 9-2. Across 12 games that split is close to even, and the sheet doesn't show the pitchers or parks behind it. With tonight in New York, the head-to-head adds little, and the starters should drive how you see it.
REGRESSION
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
25-14Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 71-48 in their other 119 completed games.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKIAN SEYMOURPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 3.5
I'm on Ian Seymour over 3.5 hits allowed at -143. I like the Rays tonight, and I can still see this lefty giving up four knocks while doing it. His last eight starts read 7, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 7 in hits allowed, so he hasn't gone under this number since midsummer. He averages 4.8 hits per start over 15 starts, and that figure is dragged down by a two-inning debut in May. He also allows plenty of loud contact, with a 37.3% hard-hit rate and 10.4% barrels. He's a fly-ball arm at 0.65 GO/AO, and he's pitching in a hitter-friendly park.
The Yankees' card has thinned out, but the top of it still hits lefties. Paul Goldschmidt leads off with a .307/.990 line against lefties over 153 at-bats. Heliot Ramos sits at .281/.867 against lefties, and Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger are both in the top four. Those four should get about eight looks at Seymour before he turns the order over twice. The pitcher_outs line sits at 14.5, with the over priced at -192, so the market expects around five innings and roughly 18 to 20 batters faced. At his season rates, four hits fits that workload without needing anything special from New York.
The case against me is real. Righties hit only .222 off Seymour, and six of tonight's nine bat right-handed. The bottom of the order is weak: Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells at .185 and Jose Caballero. He strikes out more than a batter an inning, 155 K in 127.1 IP, which leaves fewer balls in play. The wind blowing in from left also takes some carry off right-handed fly balls. The biggest risk is a short leash. The Rays have clinched and already pushed this start back a day, so if Cash pulls him after four innings, the fourth hit gets much harder. I'm laying the juice anyway because eight straight starts have landed on the over, and the price doesn't fully reflect that.
- GARY'S PICKGEORGE LOMBARD JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm on George Lombard Jr. over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -160. That price implies about 61.5%, and I think he clears it more often than that. He has cashed this number in 12 of his last 15 games and averages 1.9 combined per game across his 40 big-league games. He is also swinging a warm bat right now. He's 7 for 24 with three homers over the last week, and 3 for 12 with a homer in this series, including a run-scoring single off Kevin Kelly on Tuesday night. He bats sixth tonight and should get about four trips to the plate. At his .236 average, he gets a hit about two thirds of the time over four at-bats, and a walk that turns into a run or a sac fly adds a bit more.
His split against lefties helps too, at .286/.884, though that's only 21 at-bats and I'm treating it as a lean. The bigger point is that this market settles on one event, so his low on-base rate matters less here than it would on a total bases or walks ticket.
The risks are clear. Seymour has been tougher on righties, holding them to .222/.700, and Lombard is a free swinger. He has 42 strikeouts in 144 at-bats and struck out four times on Wednesday. Hitting sixth behind Amed Rosario, who is 1 for 9 over the past two weeks, limits his RBI chances. Volpe and Wells behind him limit his chances to score. Once Seymour exits, he may face a rested Rays bullpen in Baker, Kelly and Booser. His last 15 games also include a run of three straight blanks, so the floor is real. I'll still pay -160 on a hot rookie who reaches this number four out of five nights.
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