Your game.
Gary’s take.

Chicago has the starting-pitching advantage, but I’m backing Pittsburgh to stay within the run line. Imanaga threw six scoreless innings in each of his two starts against the Pirates this season, yet the Cubs went 1-1 in those games. That captures the distinction here: a strong outing from Chicago’s starter does not necessarily produce the separation this ticket needs to lose. The Cubs’ offense makes that separation harder to trust. Today’s starting nine hit .229 over the last seven days. Their last-10 scoring average of 5.5 runs per game also includes a 17-run outburst; outside that game, they averaged 4.2. Pittsburgh’s pitching has been the stronger part of its recent run, with its bullpen posting a 2.35 ERA over the last seven days. Chicago’s late innings offer Pittsburgh another route to stay close: Webb surrendered a tying homer while protecting a ninth-inning lead against Milwaukee, and Zeferjahn allowed both inherited runners to score in the preceding game. The biggest risk is Pittsburgh’s pitching arrangement. Dotel is making his first MLB start, and Montgomery and Weaver have pitched on consecutive days. I’m not assuming another appearance from either. But Soto, Mlodzinski and Ramírez did not pitch yesterday, giving Pittsburgh alternatives behind Dotel. His .539 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is encouraging against Chicago’s left-handed and switch-hitting bats, although that rests on just 65 at-bats. Imanaga can control this matchup again, but his 4.23 home ERA and uneven recent starts leave room for Pittsburgh to score. With Chicago’s lineup struggling collectively and its late leads proving vulnerable, the extra run is the deciding factor. This is a measured play, not a bet that Pittsburgh’s winning streak simply continues.

The late innings are what put me on Los Angeles at this price. The Angels’ bullpen has allowed three earned runs in 15 innings over the last seven days; Washington’s has allowed 18 in 21 innings. Both teams had Thursday off, so this is primarily a question of execution. Washington has repeatedly handed away leads, and backing the Nationals requires trusting more than their starting pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi gives the Angels a credible route to reaching that bullpen matchup with the game competitive. His last two starts went seven innings with two earned runs and six innings without an earned run. His fastball’s xwOBA allowed has improved across his three starts since returning. That does not erase his uneven season, but it gives me a reason to take his recent improvement seriously. Cade Cavalli is the biggest threat to this bet. His breaking balls and strong results against right-handed hitters make this difficult for the Angels’ lineup. Washington also has favorable lefty splits from Brady House and Dylan Crews against Kikuchi. Those advantages keep my conviction modest. I’m backing Los Angeles because Kikuchi’s recent work makes the starting matchup more competitive than the season ERAs suggest, while the Angels have been considerably more dependable in relief. At +132, that combination is enough for me to take the underdog.

The pitching advantage gives Boston a credible path to covering. Sonny Gray brings a 2.69 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and his latest start was seven scoreless innings. Seth Lugo has a 6.19 road ERA and has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three starts. His trouble extends beyond that short stretch: left-handed hitters have batted .303 with an .844 OPS against him this season. That creates an opening for Boston despite its recent offensive struggles. Mickey Gasper has a .964 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Adley Rutschman has a .789 OPS. Lugo’s sinker has allowed a .421 xwOBA and his four-seamer a .414 mark, giving me reason to expect opportunities beyond simply hoping Boston’s bats rebound. Boston also has the stronger bullpen to protect a lead. Garrett Whitlock owns a 1.88 ERA, Aroldis Chapman a 2.03 ERA, and Erik Miller a 2.15 ERA. None pitched in Boston’s last two games, and Thursday provided another day off. Kansas City also benefited from that off-day, so my edge here is Boston’s relief quality rather than assuming the Royals are exhausted. The hesitation is Boston’s offense: 3.6 runs per game over its last five makes the extra run a real hurdle. Carter Jensen’s recent power also gives Kansas City a threat against Gray. Still, Lugo’s contact vulnerability, Boston’s favorable hitting matchups, and its stronger late relief make laying the run and a half at +102 my bet.