The hub

2026-07-20

The angles Gary's research surfaced today — every board is graded against actual results the next morning.

41 OF 77 HIT YDAY

MLB

BALLPARK

Ballpark Shifts

4

Cristopher Sanchez owns a 0.86 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.97 everywhere else

Across 11 games (73 IP) at Citizens Bank Park, Cristopher Sanchez has a 0.86 ERA against 4.97 at his other parks (54.3 IP). Hitters bat .188 off him here.

LAD @ PHI

0.86
  1. 01

    At Wrigley Field, Jameson Taillon pitches to a 4.19 ERA

    DET @ CHC

    4.19
  2. 02

    Kyle Freeland owns a 6.38 ERA at Coors Field — 8.28 everywhere else

    WSH @ COL

    6.38
  3. 03

    Michael Wacha owns a 3.21 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 4.23 everywhere else

    SF @ KC

    3.21
REGRESSION

Regression Board

5

  • Nick Martinez: 2.65 ERA vs 4.71 xERA

    4.71

    Nick Martinez carries a 2.65 ERA against a 4.71 expected ERA (2.06 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .247 off him vs a .281 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

    TB @ TOR

  • Kyle Freeland: 7.36 ERA vs 5.59 xERA

    5.59

    Kyle Freeland carries a 7.36 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (1.77 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .319 off him vs a .295 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

    WSH @ COL

  • Kyle Leahy: 3.73 ERA vs 5.38 xERA

    5.38

    Kyle Leahy carries a 3.73 ERA against a 5.38 expected ERA (1.65 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .269 off him vs a .275 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

    STL @ LAA

  • Jeffrey Springs: 6.08 ERA vs 4.61 xERA

    4.61

    Jeffrey Springs carries a 6.08 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.47 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .264 off him vs a .245 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

    OAK @ ARI

  • Trevor McDonald: 5.02 ERA vs 3.91 xERA

    3.91

    Trevor McDonald carries a 5.02 ERA against a 3.91 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .254 off him vs a .246 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

    SF @ KC

SITUATIONAL

Rest & Fatigue

8
  1. 01

    ARI's pen has logged 15 innings across its last 3 games

    OAK @ ARI

    15
  2. 02

    14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD

    SD @ ATL

    14.7
  3. 03

    NYY's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games

    PIT @ NYY

    14
  4. 04

    BOS's pen has logged 13.7 innings across its last 3 games

    BAL @ BOS

    13.7
  5. 05

    13.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU

    MIA @ HOU

    13.3
  6. 06

    COL's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games

    WSH @ COL

    13
HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-Head

1

  • Rays are 6-2 vs Blue Jays this season

    Rays lead the season series 6-2 over Blue Jays. TOR took the last meeting 5-3 — a revenge spot.

    TB @ TOR

    6-2