Today's free player prop picks

This is a job-description bet. Bachar is opening his eighth game of the year for Pittsburgh, and the assignment has been consistent: two innings, sometimes a third, 28 to 52 pitches, then hand it off. Look at the outs column across his seven starts — 7, 6, 9, 4, 6, 9, 8. Six of seven clear this number, and the one miss was back on June 19, before the trade, before this role got defined. The last three times out he's gone 3.0, 2.0 and 2.1 innings and given up two earned runs total across 9.2 frames.

What pushes me further is the shape of Pittsburgh's staff today. Carmen Mlodzinski was the bulk arm behind Bachar in the last bullpen game, but he threw 30 pitches yesterday and has never once worked back-to-back days — 0 for 18 following outings of 25-plus pitches. He isn't coming in early. Wilber Dotel got recalled this morning specifically because somebody has to eat innings, and Dotel averages 32 pitches an outing. Nobody in that room is in a hurry to see Bachar hand it over after four outs. If anything, the length shortage argues he stretches.

His stuff also plays for a short burst. The curveball has a 36.6 percent whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA, the slider 31.9 percent, the sweeper 36.4. Lefties are hitting .212 off him and righties .167. And the lineup he's facing is thin behind Devers and Eldridge — Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats all year. That's a group that lets an opener churn through six outs without needing 40 pitches.

The honest risk: an opener who gets hit early can get yanked mid-second, and Devers has homered in three straight games. But two full innings is the plan, and openers almost always get their two. The price at -190 is steep and it caps how much I love it. The role is clear enough that I'll still pay it.

Fifteen outs. That's all this asks — five complete innings from Tidwell. And here's the thing about his season: he has reached exactly that mark in four of five starts. His innings line reads 5.0, 5.2, 4.1, 5.2, 5.0. Outs: 15, 17, 13, 17, 15. The only miss was the Colorado start where he walked five and got pulled in the fifth. Even in his career-worst outing — three home runs and six earned runs to Arizona last Friday — he was left out there for exactly five innings and 100 pitches. That tells you something about how this staff treats him. He's a 25-year-old they've publicly said is being developed for the 2027 rotation, and his pitch counts back it up: 100, 93, 63, 96, 100. They let him wear it.

The bullpen situation makes the leash even longer today. San Francisco burned five arms yesterday in a ten-inning game. Seymour has worked back-to-back days and thrown 34 pitches over two. Sanmartin, Walker, Foley and Smith all pitched Wednesday. Perdomo threw 58 pitches Tuesday in his major league debut, Roxby 31. Harris has never worked on consecutive days. This is a club with a game tomorrow in New York and a relief corps that has covered 31 innings in seven days. Vitello needs length, not a hook.

I'm not pretending Tidwell is good right now. His whiff rate has been 12 percent in two of the last three, left-handed hitters have a .893 OPS and four homers off him, and Pittsburgh runs five lefties plus two switch-hitters at him with the wind blowing out to left. That's the case against. But blowing up and getting fifteen outs are not mutually exclusive for this pitcher — he proved that against Arizona. The mechanism that beats this bet is a walk-fueled meltdown like the Rockies game, not simply giving up runs.

Five innings from a young starter whose team can't afford to go to the pen early. I'll take the outs.

Bateman has recorded a single in 10 of his last 15 games and averages one per game through his first 21 appearances. His profile fits this market: 21 of his 27 hits have been singles, and the leadoff spot should give him four or five opportunities against Tanner Bibee and the Cleveland bullpen. Bateman has cooled slightly in this series, but his contact-oriented approach gives me enough at this number.

Castillo has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, with only five strikeouts across his last three. He has also failed to complete five innings in three straight, shrinking his opportunity to reach five punchouts. Houston strikes out in only 20% of its plate appearances against right-handers, and every hitter in the confirmed lineup owns a season strikeout rate below Castillo's recent opponents collectively. The price is playable because both the matchup and his short-start trend point toward another limited strikeout total.

This is the long shot I want against a starter who has allowed 14 home runs over his last eight outings and multiple homers in six of those starts. Pena has gone deep four times in his last 15 games, owns 17 homers in 89 games and gets the maximum plate-appearance upside from the leadoff spot. He is also 7-for-23 against Castillo. The short left-field dimensions suit Pena's right-handed power, and +610 is enough return to take the swing.

Bennett has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts and averages 17.6 outs per start. He just handled the Yankees for six scoreless innings on only 83 pitches, and his 18 walks across 93.2 innings give him a strong chance to keep the pitch count under control. Baltimore's right-heavy lineup is the concern, but Bennett has held righties to a .656 OPS. I need only one out in the sixth from a starter Boston should ask to provide length.

Young has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight starts and averages 2.0 per outing. Boston's first five hitters all carry on-base percentages of .318 or better, with Roman Anthony, Mickey Gasper and Nick Sogard each above .360. That patience should give Young enough extended counts to issue the two walks this ticket needs.

Gasper has homered in six of his last 15 games, including a two-homer performance, and owns a .980 OPS with all seven of his season homers against right-handed pitching. Brandon Young has allowed 17 homers in 23 starts, with eight of the 13 scoring plays against him across his recent outings coming via the long ball. Batting second should give Gasper four opportunities, and +585 is enough return for his current power surge.

Gausman has allowed at least five hits in six of his last eight starts, and Milwaukee has collected 26 hits while scoring 18 runs over the last two games. His splitter remains a legitimate out pitch, but opponents are batting .294 against the four-seamer he throws more than half the time. With five left-handed hitters and several hot bats in the confirmed Milwaukee lineup, I expect the Brewers to reach five hits before Chicago's vulnerable bullpen takes over.

This is a price play on the hottest power hitter in the matchup. Bregman has eight home runs over his last 15 games and four in this series, including one against Milwaukee's ace Wednesday. Henderson has been excellent, but he has surrendered 11 homers in 14 starts, and six of the seven scoring plays against him across his last five outings have come via the long ball. The wind coming from right field is less troublesome for Bregman's pull power toward left, and +640 is enough compensation for the difficult matchup.

Isbel is batting ninth after going 0-for-7 in this series, and he has produced no hits, runs or RBIs in four of his past six games. Now he draws Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed a low 5.1% barrel rate while holding left-handed hitters to a .680 OPS. Isbel likely needs either multiple hits or involvement in a scoring play to beat this number, and the bottom-of-the-order placement limits his opportunities.

This price is worth taking on Alcantara recording one out in the seventh. He has completed at least six innings in eight straight starts and cleared 18.5 outs in five of those eight. His slider has held hitters to a .114 xwOBA, his overall barrel rate is only 5.1%, and Kansas City has a modest .722 OPS against right-handed pitching. Miami also has an incentive to ride its ace after using five relievers Wednesday.

Hernandez is my choice from the home-run board because he owns 22 homers and has gone deep four times in his past 15 games. Michael Wacha has allowed 22 home runs in 27 starts, with 14 coming against right-handed hitters, and he has surrendered a homer in six of his past eight outings. Hernandez leads off, giving him the best chance on this board to receive five plate appearances, and the 12 mph wind blowing toward left field is favorable for his right-handed power.

Quantrill has issued one walk or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including zero in each of his last three. His command is peaking at the right time, and Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup has only three hitters with a season walk rate above ten percent. I trust him to attack the zone and make the Rays earn their traffic.

Freeman has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 12 of his last 15 games and owns a .333 average with an .890 OPS against left-handed pitching. McClanahan has been substantially tougher on lefties than righties, giving Freeman the preferred side of the split. One single cashes this, and Freeman has recorded a hit in 11 of those 15 games.

Foscue is the long-shot swing I want against McClanahan. He has eight home runs in 115 at-bats against lefties with a .989 OPS, and four of his last 15 games have included a homer. Batting fifth should give him multiple chances with traffic ahead of him, while McClanahan's four-seamer has allowed a .364 expected wOBA. At this price, Foscue's lefty-mashing power is worth the shot.

Williams has cleared this in 11 of his last 15 games, and his .307 average with an .851 OPS against left-handers makes him a strong fit against Kade Anderson. He also enters off a homer and a double Wednesday. The eighth lineup spot limits his opportunities, but one hit, run or RBI is a low enough bar against a rookie expected to work no more than about 80 pitches.

Stefanic has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in four of his last six games and owns six hits in 16 at-bats this season. Batting sixth gives him a better opportunity than the other bottom-order options, while Anderson has issued five walks in 10 major-league innings. The sample on Stefanic is small, but this market gives him three paths to cash before Seattle turns to a bullpen that has allowed 18 earned runs over its last 21.1 innings.

Arozarena gets the best combination of price and opportunity on the home-run board. He has four homers in his last 15 games, an .820 OPS against right-handed pitching and two career homers in four at-bats against Jack Perkins. That tiny matchup history is supporting evidence, not the foundation: Perkins has a 6.42 ERA, has allowed 18 homers, and his heavily used four-seamer carries a .396 xwOBA. The pitcher-friendly park is the restraint, but a hot leadoff hitter likely to receive four or five chances is worth the swing at +500.

Church has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games and is 3-for-8 through the first two games of this series. One hit settles the over, but the combined market also gives me paths through a run or RBI.

The left-on-left matchup does not scare me here. Left-handed hitters own a .278 average and .758 OPS against Skubal, noticeably better than his results against righties. Church's eighth-place lineup spot limits the ceiling, but -140 is reasonable for three ways to cash.

This is effectively a one-hit bet, and the total-bases price is five cents cheaper than Walker's hits market. He has recorded at least one total base in 11 of his last 15 games, is 4-for-10 with three extra-base hits in this series and owns a .293 average with a .920 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Skubal has dominated right-handed hitters, so I am keeping the confidence below my usual level for this price. Walker is still the Cardinals hitter I trust most to handle premium velocity, and batting third should give him four opportunities unless Skubal completely controls the game.

This is a price play on Báez's specific strength. Five of his six major-league home runs have come in only 29 at-bats against left-handed pitching, producing a 1.206 OPS in the split. He also enters 3-for-5 in this series with a homer and two doubles, and batting cleanup maximizes his chances of seeing Skubal more than twice.

Skubal's changeup makes this a difficult assignment, and the Dodger Stadium night conditions reduce the margin further. Báez is an all-or-nothing hitter, though, and +650 properly rewards that risk while giving me the most appealing power-versus-price combination on the home run board.