Player Props.

Everything about tonight pushes White's scoring down. He's on the injury report with right hip synovitis, it's the second night of a back-to-back, and Boston is laying twelve and a half to an 0-3 team that just got run off its own floor by Indiana. If this goes the way the number says, there's no reason to keep a guard with a sore hip on the floor in the fourth quarter. We saw that Monday: in an easy win over Chicago he played 18 minutes and scored 5. He also hasn't been the guy getting the shots. Tatum and George take the first looks, and Pritchard is hot again off a 28-point night against Chicago. White's job in this lineup has been running the offense and defending, and his scoring has come in under this number in two of his three games. He'd need a big shooting night in limited minutes to beat 14.5. Close to even money on the under is a price I'll take.

Tatum is playing tonight, and Boston made a point of saying it isn't resting him on the back-to-back. Playing is one thing, though. Heavy minutes are another. Monday was the preview: against a weak Chicago team at home, he played under 28 minutes and finished at 36 combined points, rebounds and assists. Brooklyn lost to Indiana by 27 two nights ago, gives up a lot of easy offense, and comes in on its third game in four nights. If Boston is up 20 after three quarters, Tatum sits and this line gets stranded. The only time he's cleared this number was the close game with New York, when he played nearly 37 minutes and scored 36. A spread this size doesn't set up that kind of night. With Pritchard hot and George, Hauser and González all producing, Boston can spread the offense around and still win comfortably. I like the under at this price.

Dustin May over 0.5 earned runs at -160. One earned run cashes this. May has been charged with earned runs in four of his last five starts. The clean one was a six-inning outing against Cincinnati in mid-September. His October work points the same way. His two short relief stints were scoreless. In both outings that reached three innings he allowed earned runs, including three runs in three innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS. When May gives up runs, they come fast. Most of the runs he allowed in his recent starts came on home runs, so one swing can do it. Lefties have done their best work against him all season, and the Rays start four left-handed bats plus Walls from both sides. Runners have gone 9 for 13 stealing off May this year, and an elimination team will want to force the action. If Pat Murphy pulls May with men on base, any of those runners who score land on May's line. There's a real case against. The Trop suppresses offense, the Rays scored once last night, and a short stint shrinks the window. William Contreras has shut down the Rays' running game all series. Milwaukee's high-leverage relievers are fresh, so Murphy can bring in a strong arm to strand anything May leaves behind. Junior Caminero is the one Rays hitter with real power, and he is 0 for 3 lifetime off May, too few at-bats to read either way. The -160 price is steep for a single run. Still, May is on two days' rest and has struggled to keep runs off the board for two months. He only needs one mistake to lose this. Over.

Dustin May over 2.5 hits allowed at -140. May starts Game 4 on two days' rest, coming off a 12-pitch relief inning in Game 2. I expect about three innings and somewhere around a dozen hitters. The outs line sits at 8.5, so the market sees it the same way. Three hits in that window is a fair ask against this lineup. The Rays are built on contact. Tonight's nine strike out less than the league does, and on the turf at Tropicana Field ground balls get through in a hurry. Kevin Cash starts four left-handed bats: Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson and Richie Palacios. He adds the switch-hitting Taylor Walls. Lefties have hit May harder than righties all season, with more power too. Aranda already doubled off him in Game 2. Simpson brings the kind of speed that turns soft contact into hits. May has also allowed a lot of hard contact this season. His last two outings that reached three innings, at San Diego in the NLDS and against St. Louis in September, each produced exactly three hits. The case against is real. Short rest could mean two innings instead of three, and at Philadelphia on Sept. 22 he went two innings and gave up one hit. The Rays have barely hit all series, and they managed one hit in six innings off Robert Gasser last night. The Trop holds offense down. The career matchups lean my way but are tiny. Yandy Diaz is 3 for 3 off May and Jonny DeLuca is 2 for 2. Five at-bats prove nothing on their own. At -140 I'll take a contact lineup with four lefties on turf against a pitcher who gives up hard contact. Over.

This number is set for a superstar who carries the scoring load every night, and that isn't how this Spurs team is built right now. Harper has scored 18, 20 and 22 in his first three games, Castle has been between 15 and 24, and Fox keeps putting up 19. That's a lot of shots going to guards before Wemby touches the ball. He's topped out at 25 so far, and the 12 point opener shows how low his floor can go when the jumper isn't falling. The game script helps too. San Antonio is laying 18.5 against a Kings team that has given up 121, 128 and 123 in three straight losses. If this goes the way the spread says, Wemby is on the bench for a big chunk of the fourth quarter. He only played 29 minutes in the comfortable win at Dallas. Tonight is also the first night of a back-to-back, so Mitch Johnson has every reason to protect his franchise player once the margin is safe. Sabonis has no answer for him in the post, which is the one risk here, but even an efficient night in 28 minutes probably lands in the low twenties. I'll take the under at a fair price.

Fox has set up teammates as well as anyone in this backcourt. He has 9, 9 and 7 assists so far, and he did it in modest minutes, including only 28 in the Dallas win when he still handed out nine. With Castle and Harper both looking to score, Fox has settled into the role of the guard who organizes the offense and gets the ball to Wembanyama, and that role produces assists whether he plays 28 minutes or 34. The opponent matters here. Sacramento's defense has been leaking points, with opponents scoring over 120 a night, and teams that give up that many baskets give up plenty of assists along with them. The Kings are also short on size with Murray, Raynaud and Cardwell all out, so Fox should have easy lanes to drive and kick or to find Wemby rolling to the rim. He's facing his old team, which usually means he's dialed in early, and early is when this game should be decided. Getting plus money on a line he has cleared every night this season is a price I'll take.

Brunson has finished with 4, 4 and 3 assists, and I'm getting plus money that he stays under six. The Knicks are 0-3 and he is trying to win games by himself. He took 28 shots against Orlando, and when the possession matters the ball stays in his hands until he shoots it. His assists also need teammates who are hitting shots, and that hasn't been happening. Bridges has gone 0 for 8, 2 for 8 and 3 for 7, and New York shot 9 for 38 from deep on Sunday. The rest of the playmaking is spread around. Kolek handed out nine assists in fifteen minutes off the bench, Hart brings the ball up often, and Anunoby had an eight assist game in Boston. Detroit is a long, active defense that has held its last two opponents to poor shooting from three. Brunson did say everything falls on him and that he wants to organize the offense better, so he could make a point of passing more tonight. Even so, his habits this season point to him shooting, so I'll take the under at this price.

Kessler has gone 9, 8 and 7 on the glass, and the 8 came in a 35 minute night against the Clippers. Even his best workload hasn't gotten him close to 11. The way this Lakers team plays caps his ceiling. They barely chase offensive boards, grabbing just 5 at Utah, so almost everything he gets has to come on the defensive end. He splits those with Luka, who pulls 7 or 8 a night himself, and with wings like Thybulle and Williams. Tonight he sees Donovan Clingan, a massive body who walls off the paint and lives on the glass. Portland crashes hard: 16 offensive boards against Phoenix and 13 at Sacramento. Every one of those Kessler loses is a rebound off his total. Add a splinted finger, the first night of a back-to-back, and Mamukelashvili already soaking up center minutes, and I see him finishing somewhere in the 7 to 9 range again. I'll lay the juice on the under.

Morant has handed out 8 assists in 23 minutes and 7 in 27, and he's barely turned it over doing it. He's been playing short nights. Phoenix was a blowout over by the third quarter, and Portland has a deep rotation with Holiday eating guard minutes. This one is lined as a toss-up, with the Lakers giving a point and a half, so a close game should push his minutes into the 30s for the first time this season. The matchup helps too. The Lakers have been loose with the ball, giving it away 21 times against the Clippers and 18 against Golden State, and Portland has been running every chance it gets. Camara and Lillard are hitting from outside, and Clingan finishes around the rim, so his passes are turning into points. Henderson is questionable with a sore ankle, and if he sits, even more of the ball handling falls to Ja. He's already over the number at his current pace in fewer minutes, so getting plus money on 7 assists is a price I'll take.