Today's free sports picks

Chicago has the starting-pitching advantage, but I’m backing Pittsburgh to stay within the run line. Imanaga threw six scoreless innings in each of his two starts against the Pirates this season, yet the Cubs went 1-1 in those games. That captures the distinction here: a strong outing from Chicago’s starter does not necessarily produce the separation this ticket needs to lose. The Cubs’ offense makes that separation harder to trust. Today’s starting nine hit .229 over the last seven days. Their last-10 scoring average of 5.5 runs per game also includes a 17-run outburst; outside that game, they averaged 4.2. Pittsburgh’s pitching has been the stronger part of its recent run, with its bullpen posting a 2.35 ERA over the last seven days. Chicago’s late innings offer Pittsburgh another route to stay close: Webb surrendered a tying homer while protecting a ninth-inning lead against Milwaukee, and Zeferjahn allowed both inherited runners to score in the preceding game. The biggest risk is Pittsburgh’s pitching arrangement. Dotel is making his first MLB start, and Montgomery and Weaver have pitched on consecutive days. I’m not assuming another appearance from either. But Soto, Mlodzinski and Ramírez did not pitch yesterday, giving Pittsburgh alternatives behind Dotel. His .539 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is encouraging against Chicago’s left-handed and switch-hitting bats, although that rests on just 65 at-bats. Imanaga can control this matchup again, but his 4.23 home ERA and uneven recent starts leave room for Pittsburgh to score. With Chicago’s lineup struggling collectively and its late leads proving vulnerable, the extra run is the deciding factor. This is a measured play, not a bet that Pittsburgh’s winning streak simply continues.

Detroit’s route to separation runs through Colorado’s bullpen. Mason Adams has worked 4.0, 5.0 and 4.2 innings in his three major-league starts, leaving substantial innings behind him. Colorado’s relievers have allowed 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings over the last five days, and Zach Agnos threw 45 pitches yesterday. Adams can pitch competitively and still leave Detroit opportunities to extend a lead. Framber Valdez gives Detroit a stronger foundation for covering those innings. He has allowed six earned runs across his last three starts, totaling 19.0 innings, and completed seven scoreless innings last time out. Behind him, Detroit’s bullpen delivered 12.0 innings without an earned run against Minnesota before Thursday’s off day. That combination supports both building a lead and protecting it. The matchup also suits important Detroit bats. Riley Greene owns a .855 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Kevin McGonigle sits at .853. Adams has allowed four homers in 13.2 innings and a 61.1% hard-hit rate across 36 batted balls. His sample is small, but those contact results give Detroit an opening alongside the later bullpen matchup. The concern is separation: Comerica’s home-run suppression and the wind blowing in could help Adams, who has struck out 17 hitters, keep this close. Valdez’s 4.33 home ERA also argues against expecting another scoreless outing. I’m backing Detroit at +118 because its pitching depth and opportunities against Colorado’s relief staff give it a credible path to covering, even without an early offensive breakout.

The late innings are what put me on Los Angeles at this price. The Angels’ bullpen has allowed three earned runs in 15 innings over the last seven days; Washington’s has allowed 18 in 21 innings. Both teams had Thursday off, so this is primarily a question of execution. Washington has repeatedly handed away leads, and backing the Nationals requires trusting more than their starting pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi gives the Angels a credible route to reaching that bullpen matchup with the game competitive. His last two starts went seven innings with two earned runs and six innings without an earned run. His fastball’s xwOBA allowed has improved across his three starts since returning. That does not erase his uneven season, but it gives me a reason to take his recent improvement seriously. Cade Cavalli is the biggest threat to this bet. His breaking balls and strong results against right-handed hitters make this difficult for the Angels’ lineup. Washington also has favorable lefty splits from Brady House and Dylan Crews against Kikuchi. Those advantages keep my conviction modest. I’m backing Los Angeles because Kikuchi’s recent work makes the starting matchup more competitive than the season ERAs suggest, while the Angels have been considerably more dependable in relief. At +132, that combination is enough for me to take the underdog.

Subway Series in the Bronx on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, and the two hottest arms in New York get the ball: Nolan McLean for the Mets, Carlos Rodón for the Yankees. I'm taking the Mets at plus money, and the reason is simple: the deeper starter is on the road side. McLean has gone at least six innings in all five of his last starts, 31 innings with a 1.16 ERA and one home run allowed. Rodón hasn't gotten past the fifth in any of his last five, and he's given up three homers in 22.2 innings while walking 12. That gap in innings decides who has to lean on middle relief tonight, and it's the Yankees. Bednar is elite, but he only matters if there's a lead to protect in the ninth, and the Mets get four innings of Yankee middle relief before that question comes up. The price is also paying for a fragile number. Rodón's opponents carry a .273 wOBA against a .305 expected, so the market is buying an ERA his contact quality doesn't support. He's a fly-ball pitcher at 0.58 grounders per flyout, and tonight the wind is blowing 7 mph out to right at 77 degrees toward the short porch. Lindor has 5 homers in his last 10 games and Soto has 3. The Mets' averages are down, but the power that beats a fly-ball lefty in this park is alive. On the other side, Judge is hitting .243 with one homer over his last ten, and Chisholm just went on the IL Thursday, which thins the middle of the lineup in a way the line has barely had a day to absorb. The best argument against me is real and I'm not hiding from it: McLean allows a .699 OPS to lefties, he's walked 17 in those 31 innings, and Boone stacked six left-handed bats around Judge to attack exactly that. Add a Mets bullpen without Devin Williams that's been allowing 5.8 runs a game over the last ten versus 3.2 for the Yankees, and you can see why the Yankees are favored. I take the Mets anyway because McLean's six innings shrink that bullpen problem to three, while Rodón's five expose the Yankees' for four. The Mets have won four straight, took two of three from this team in May, and at +110 I'm getting paid to back the better starter tonight.

Friday night at Rogers Centre, and Chris Bassitt walks back into the building he pitched in for three seasons, this time in Orioles gray, while Max Scherzer takes the ball for a Blue Jays club sitting one game out of the last wild card. Both teams are off a rest day, and the market has Toronto at -134. What carries this pick is the way the two lineups line up against the two arms. Scherzer has allowed a .819 OPS to left-handed hitters this year with 8 of his home runs coming in 152 at-bats against them, and he leans fly-ball at 0.56 grounders per flyout with a 9.2% barrel rate allowed. Baltimore runs six lefties at him tonight, Beavers, Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Kjerstad, and Cowser, with Alonso and his 34 homers anchoring from the right side. Flip it around. Bassitt's weakness is also lefties at a .902 OPS, but Toronto only has four in the order, and its best bats are righties. Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, and Okamoto all face a pitcher holding right-handers to a .654 OPS with one home run in 140 at-bats. Toronto's power is pointed at Bassitt's strength. Baltimore's power is pointed at Scherzer's weakness. Add that Bassitt has gone at least 5.1 innings in five straight starts with nothing worse than 5 earned, while Scherzer walked 12 in his last 26.2 innings, has a 4-inning, 7-run disaster in that stretch, and struck out two hitters last time out. He is 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA and I am being paid plus money to fade him. The best argument against me is the back end. Varland's 1.24 ERA is real, Toronto's bullpen is far better than Baltimore's, and five of Baltimore's seven losses in its last ten came by one or two runs. If this is a one-run game in the eighth, I am on the wrong side. I took Baltimore anyway because Toronto has scored 1, 5, 4, and 0 runs in its last four games, and that elite pen needs a lead to protect. Baltimore has outscored Toronto over the full season at 4.5 runs a game to 4.0, and just put up 20 runs in three games against Cleveland. The platoon math says the lefties get to Scherzer before Varland ever matters, and at +114 that is a number I want.

Friday night under the closed roof at loanDepot Park, and the red-hot Dodgers roll into Miami on a seven-game heater with Blake Snell on the mound against Ryan Gusto and a Marlins club that just got swept out of New York. The number that carries this pick is Snell's last five starts: 29 innings, 15 hits, 3 earned runs, 38 strikeouts, and not a single home run allowed. He is facing a lineup with one hitter over .300 in Otto Lopez and two left-handed bats, Kyle Stowers (.204 vs LHP) and Griffin Conine (.603 OPS vs LHP), who have been close to automatic outs against left-handed pitching all year. Miami's hitters whiff 25.6 percent of the time and chase 32.2 percent, which is exactly the profile a strikeout lefty feeds on. The second leg is the back half of the game. Gusto has not finished the 6th inning in any of his last five starts, allowed 29 hits in 23.1 innings over that stretch, and gave up 2 homers his last time out, and his season line is a 4.23 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 43.3 percent hard-hit rate allowed. That means Miami's bullpen, which threw 28 innings across its last three games, lost Anthony Bender to a shin shutdown yesterday, and hands the ninth to a closer in Pete Fairbanks carrying a 6.02 ERA fresh off the IL, has to cover four-plus innings against Betts, Tucker, Muncy, Smith, and Teoscar. The Dodgers' pen threw 6.33 innings over the same three games, and Tanner Scott (2.62 ERA), Vesia, and Dreyer are all rested. From the 6th inning on, this game tilts hard one direction, and that is where a one-run lead becomes a two-run cover. The honest case against me is that this Dodgers lineup is thin. Ohtani went on the IL Wednesday, Freeman is out again with the knee, and Josue De Paula is making his big-league debut at DH with Freeland and Enrique Hernández behind him. Snell has also walked 12 in those 29 innings, and the 7.5 total tells you the market expects a low-scoring game where one free baserunner and one hard-hit ball keeps Miami within a run. I took the run line anyway because the price already bakes in those absences at -198, the Marlins' 43-32 home record was not built against a left-hander pitching like this, and Gusto's early exits force the matchup I want most: a taxed, short-handed Miami pen against the Dodgers' top five for the final third of the game. At -108 that is the calculated risk worth taking.

The pitching advantage gives Boston a credible path to covering. Sonny Gray brings a 2.69 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and his latest start was seven scoreless innings. Seth Lugo has a 6.19 road ERA and has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three starts. His trouble extends beyond that short stretch: left-handed hitters have batted .303 with an .844 OPS against him this season. That creates an opening for Boston despite its recent offensive struggles. Mickey Gasper has a .964 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Adley Rutschman has a .789 OPS. Lugo’s sinker has allowed a .421 xwOBA and his four-seamer a .414 mark, giving me reason to expect opportunities beyond simply hoping Boston’s bats rebound. Boston also has the stronger bullpen to protect a lead. Garrett Whitlock owns a 1.88 ERA, Aroldis Chapman a 2.03 ERA, and Erik Miller a 2.15 ERA. None pitched in Boston’s last two games, and Thursday provided another day off. Kansas City also benefited from that off-day, so my edge here is Boston’s relief quality rather than assuming the Royals are exhausted. The hesitation is Boston’s offense: 3.6 runs per game over its last five makes the extra run a real hurdle. Carter Jensen’s recent power also gives Kansas City a threat against Gray. Still, Lugo’s contact vulnerability, Boston’s favorable hitting matchups, and its stronger late relief make laying the run and a half at +102 my bet.

Under the dome at Tropicana Field, the AL East-leading Rays hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen while the Astros open this three-game set with a bullpen game behind rookie Miguel Ullola. First pitch is 7:10 ET, two division leaders, and a mound matchup that could not be more lopsided on paper. This pick rides on two things. First, the pitching gap. Rasmussen is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, and his last start was 7.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts and 0 walks. Over his last five starts he has 26 strikeouts against 5 walks in 29.0 innings. On the other side, Ullola has 7.0 innings all season and has never started a game. Houston is stitching nine innings together out of the pen. Second, the lineup Houston posted. Seven of nine hitters bat right-handed, and Rasmussen has held righties to a .178 average and .490 OPS across 225 at-bats this season. Yordan Alvarez, Houston's best bat at .310 with 38 homers, is not on tonight's card at all. Altuve is at DH. That is a lineup built to struggle against this exact pitcher, in a dome that gives hitters nothing extra. The strongest case against me is the price and the variance. Tampa at -200 on the moneyline is expensive, and the run line asks them to win by two. Rasmussen's fourth-most-recent start was 5.0 innings and 5 earned runs, so even his good stretch has a blowup in it. Houston has been playing tight games, winning 2-0, 3-1 and 2-1 within its last ten, and tight games keep an underdog inside a run and a half. I took the run line anyway because that is exactly why it pays plus money. Tampa is 47-25 at home, they scored seven runs in each of the two games before last night, and their lefty-heavy card gets a rookie opener and then whoever Houston has left in the pen. When the ace side also has the deeper lineup, the platoon edge and the home park, I would rather take +110 than lay two dollars to win one. Give me the Rays to win by more than a run.

Friday night at Truist Park, the division on the line, and two aces who have been dealing: Chris Sale takes the ball for Atlanta against Aaron Nola and a Phillies club that has to win every game left in this series. The market has Atlanta at -188, and that is where I part ways with the market. The price is built on Nola's 4.76 ERA, and that number does not describe the pitcher showing up tonight. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, a 1.80 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 30 innings, and his season-long expected wOBA of .307 sits nearly forty points under his actual .345. That gap is a read on the price, not a promise about tonight, but it tells me the books are paying for a fragile number. On the other side of the ball, the Braves' offense has gone quiet at the wrong time. They are 4-6 over their last ten, held to three runs or fewer in six of those games, with Matt Olson at 4-for-36 and Michael Harris II at 5-for-34 in the heart of the order. Lane Thomas went on the IL today. Philadelphia already took a 1-0 game and a 4-2 game from this group last week, and every one of those four meetings finished within three runs. A team that scores three runs a night cannot be a two-to-one favorite against a starter who has been giving up one. The strongest argument against me is Sale himself. He is the best pitcher in this game, with 41 strikeouts against three walks over his last five starts, and he gets a right-handed heavy Phillies lineup that has been whiffing at 26.7 percent and chasing at 38.7 percent over its last three games. Righties hit .213 with a .568 OPS off him this year, and Brandon Marsh's foot bruise puts one more righty in the order. I respect all of it. But Sale still gave up eight hits in one of those five starts and three earned in another, and Bryce Harper at .314 and Luis Arraez at .333 over the last ten are the kind of contact bats that survive a lefty like him. This is a total-seven game between two hot starters and two cold offenses, which makes it closer to a coin flip than the number says. With the season riding on it for Philadelphia, I will take the plus money and the pitcher nobody is pricing correctly.

Friday night in Milwaukee, and the Reds walk into American Family Field a week after taking the Brewers behind the woodshed at home, with Dustin May and Andrew Abbott squaring off in game one. I bleed Reds red, and I would love to tell you Elly De La Cruz, hitting .459 with five homers over the last ten, carries this team again. But the money goes where the bullpens point, and tonight that is Milwaukee, by more than a run. Here is the read. Neither starter is built to go deep right now. May has averaged 4.46 innings over his last five starts and Abbott 4.74, so this game lands in the relievers' hands by the fifth. Cincinnati played Thursday and burned six relievers in the Dodgers blowout, ending with a position player on the mound, and the arms left standing are Pagan at a 3.93 ERA and Santillan at 6.93. Milwaukee had Thursday off, and Megill and Uribe come in with light workloads and ERAs of 2.59 and 2.06. When the game is decided in the sixth or seventh, that gap is where a one-run lead becomes a three-run lead, and that is why I want the run line at plus money instead of laying two to one on the moneyline. The platoon math stacks on top. Right-handed hitters carry a .650 OPS against May, and Francona is running five righties, while Elly hits from the weaker left side tonight. Abbott's fastball, thrown nearly half the time, has been tagged for a .386 xwOBA, and Chourio already owns a 1.786 OPS against him in a small sample. The best argument against me is real. Milwaukee's staff has given up 6.4 runs a game over the last ten, the Reds hung 12 on them Sunday, and May has issued 37 walks to lefties in 292 at-bats, so a Reds offensive night is on the table and a one-run Brewers win loses this ticket. I take the chalk by the extra run anyway because the fatigue is on Cincinnati's side of the ledger, the home team is 50-25 in this building, and the late innings belong to the club that rested yesterday.

Friday night at Target Field, and the Guardians roll into Minneapolis with a wild card spot to protect while the Twins try to keep their own season from slipping away. Parker Messick against Taj Bradley, and the market has this one priced as a coin flip. I am on Cleveland, and the pick starts on the mound. Messick has gone at least 5.2 innings in every one of his last five starts with a 2.37 ERA, 37 strikeouts against 7 walks, and just 3 homers allowed in 30.1 innings. He holds right-handed hitters to a .194 average and a .571 OPS, and the Twins send seven right-handed at-bats to the plate against him with their two switch hitters. Bradley is the opposite story. He has walked 13 in his last 27.2 innings, allowed 6 homers in that span, and one of those five starts was a 4.0 inning, 5 run, 4 walk, 2 homer mess. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a 45.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 9.3 percent barrel rate, and tonight he faces seven left-handed at-bats in 81 degree air after giving up 17 homers to lefties in 350 at-bats this season. The Twins' L10 offense looks fine at 54 runs, but 26 of those came in two blowouts of Detroit. In the other eight games they scored 28. Both bullpens had Wednesday off, so this comes down to quality, and Cade Smith at 2.22 with 35 saves beats Yoendrys Gómez at 3.50 in any close ninth. The honest case against me is Cleveland's bat rack. This lineup scores 4.1 runs a game with a .687 team OPS, got shut out twice in its last ten, and Jose Ramirez is hitting .179 over that stretch. Bradley misses bats when he is right, the Twins are 6-4 against Cleveland this year, and a 19 mph wind blowing right to left may knock down some pulled fly balls from the lefties. I take Cleveland anyway because a weak offense against a pitcher walking nearly a batter every two innings is not the same as a weak offense against a good one, and DeLauter at 14-for-36 is the kind of bat that punishes free passes. The better starter, the better pen, and the cleaner platoon matchup for basically even money is the side I want.

Friday night under the arch at Busch Stadium, and both clubs walk in dragging three-game losing streaks with the book calling it a coin flip. The one specific thing on this board that I trust is the shape of the Cardinals' lineup against Anthony Kay. Right-handed hitters are batting .287 with an .868 OPS off Kay, and 18 of the 20 home runs he has allowed came from that side. Lefties are hitting .184 with a .511 OPS. Marmol is sending seven right-handed or switch bats at him, with only Burleson and Church hitting from the left. That is the lineup built to hurt Kay, and Kay has been getting hurt: a 6.84 ERA over his last five starts, five homers allowed, and three exits before the fifth inning. Liberatore is the reason the Cardinals are only -110 at home, and I am fine paying that. He is 5-14 with a 5.57 ERA, and his last five carry a 7.46 ERA with one eight-run outing inside it. But the market is pricing the ugly surface number. His expected wOBA of .337 sits under the .353 he has actually allowed, and over his last 25 innings he has struck out 34 against 6 walks. That does not tell me he pitches well tonight. It tells me the price is not overpaying for him. Both starters project to be short, which turns this into a game decided by the lineups over nine innings, and the lineup with the sharper platoon edge is the home one. The White Sox are 32-40 on the road and 3-7 over their last ten. The best argument against me is that Chicago is simply the better roster: 4.7 runs per game to 4.5, a 4.13 team ERA to 4.31, and a division lead to protect with sixteen games left while St. Louis plays out the string. Walker is hitting .200 over his last ten and Burleson .211, so the Cardinals' best bats are not exactly rolling. I take the Cardinals anyway because tonight's specific edge outweighs the season-long one. Kay's problem with righties is more severe than Liberatore's, it is aimed at a lineup that is almost entirely righties, and at -110 I am paying nothing for it.

Warm night in West Sacramento, wind blowing out to center, and George Kirby takes the ball for Seattle against lefty Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics. The two things carrying this pick are the conditions and who is hitting the ball hard right now. Springs is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.69 GO/AO and a 9.2% barrel rate allowed, and he has given up 23 homers to right-handed hitters in 364 at-bats with an .841 OPS against them. Tonight he gets 86 degrees, a 12 mph wind out to center, a 1.07 park, and a Seattle lineup stacking Cal Raleigh (1.017 OPS vs LHP), Randy Arozarena (.871 vs LHP), Julio Rodriguez (2 HR in 14 AB vs Springs), and Taylor Ward from the right side. Over the last three games Seattle is producing a 40.3% hard-hit rate with a .328 xwOBA and a 116.1 mph max exit velocity. That contact profile against that pitcher in this air is the edge I'd put my own money on. The strongest argument against Seattle is real and I'm not hiding from it. Springs shut this exact lineup out six days ago, seven innings and two hits, and Kirby has a 6.59 ERA over his last five with three starts of 5 or more earned runs. Seattle's season line is a .229 average and a .683 OPS, J.P. Crawford is 1-for-13 against Springs, and Rodriguez is hitting .186 over the last ten. That is a legitimate case for the home dog at +138. But the shutout sits between starts of 7, 4, 2, and 2 earned runs, with 13 walks in 26 innings. I read that gem as the outlier, not the trend. Kirby's ugly results also sit on solid process. His .310 xwOBA allowed is well under his .336 actual, and his 6.9% barrel rate is elite. The market is not overpaying for something fragile here. It is pricing a starter whose surface numbers look worse than his contact suppression. The Athletics are averaging 84.2 mph off the bat with a 28.8% hard-hit rate over their last three games, which is exactly the offense a pitcher leaking hits wants to see. Add the deeper bullpen, with Gabe Speier at 2.61 and Andrés Muñoz rested, and Seattle has the better pitching from the first pitch to the last. Moneyline, not the run line. This series has played tight all year and I want the win, not the margin.

Roof closed at Chase Field, 72 degrees and dead air, and the Rangers open a three-game set in the desert with MacKenzie Gore against Merrill Kelly. Both clubs are 5-5 over their last ten, both chasing a wild card, and the market has this priced close to a coin flip. My read is the pitcher-to-lineup fit, and it runs one direction. Kelly has allowed a .864 OPS and 18 home runs to left-handed hitters this season with an 11.8 percent barrel rate allowed, and his last two starts went 4 innings for 6 earned and 5 innings for 6 earned with two homers. Texas answers with five left-handed bats in the confirmed lineup: Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, and Lopez. This is also the hottest offense he has seen during the slide, scoring 5.6 runs per game over the last ten. On the other side, Arizona is scoring 2.5 runs per game over the same stretch, Corbin Carroll is 5-for-37, and the lineup hands Gore eight right-handed looks. Gore holds righties to a .708 OPS. He does not need to be great tonight. He needs to be ordinary. The best argument against Texas is the schedule. They played a doubleheader in Seattle on Wednesday, a night game Thursday, then flew to Phoenix while Arizona sat home on an off day. Gore has also been erratic, with 14 walks in 23.2 innings over his last five starts, and two of those outings blew up early. I took the Rangers anyway because Arizona has been surviving one-run games on pitching alone, and tonight they send out the one starter who has not been holding up his end. In his last two starts Kelly has walked more hitters than he has struck out. A tired lineup still hits that. At -102 I am getting the better starter by season and recent form, the hotter bats, and the handedness edge for essentially nothing. I stay on the moneyline rather than the run line because Gore's own volatility and Arizona's habit of keeping games tight make the extra run a coin flip I do not need.

Friday night in Chestnut Hill, red bandannas in the stands on the 25th anniversary of September 11, and two 0-1 teams whose coaches spent the week taking the blame. Boston College is home, Rutgers is a short bus ride down from New Jersey, and the number sits on the wrong side of a field goal. I am taking the points, and the first reason is the turnover count. Rutgers lost the opener with a minus-four margin, and every giveaway came from Dylan Lonergan, three interceptions and a lost fumble that UMass turned into 17 points. Lonergan is not starting tonight. AJ Surace is, and his relief sample was small but clean: 6 of 9 for 77 yards and an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. Four turnovers is the single noisiest stat in football, and Rutgers does not have to be good tonight, it only has to stop handing over the ball. Boston College forced nothing at Cincinnati and its secondary registered zero passes defended. The second reason is where each defense is broken. Boston College gave up 254 rushing yards at 5.5 a carry, and its own coordinator counted 126 yards after missed tackles, on a unit with only four players who had more than six career starts. It ranked 117th nationally in points allowed per scoring opportunity and 81st in explosiveness allowed. Rutgers' offense, for all its problems up front, ranked 10th in explosiveness, and KJ Duff is the best player on either roster, a 6-foot-6 receiver coming off 9 catches, 196 yards and three touchdowns including a 78-yarder. Antwan Raymond ran for 1,241 yards last season and was held to 42 on 14 carries by UMass. A run defense that could not tackle Cincinnati is the softest possible place to get him going again. Rutgers' defense is also bad, 126th in success rate allowed, and a mobile quarterback like Mason McKenzie is exactly what hurt it. That is the real risk here. But Rutgers ranked 32nd in explosiveness allowed, which means Boston College has to string together long drives with an offense that sat 95th in success rate and went scoreless for 41 minutes despite 388 yards and 24 first downs. Boston College moved the ball at Cincinnati and could not cash it: a missed 35-yard field goal, four false starts, a muffed punt, three burned first-half timeouts. That profile keeps games inside a field goal, and inside a field goal is what plus-3.5 pays for. The market agrees the number is uncomfortable. The line was first seen at Boston College minus 3 and the book will only hold minus 3.5 at even money. One power rating has Rutgers the better team on a neutral field, the other has Boston College, and Rutgers brings two extra days of rest. I do not need Rutgers to win. I need a first-time starter to protect the ball against a defense that has not shown it can take it away, and a run game to find lanes against a front that could not find the ball carrier last week. Give me the points.

Friday night in Lawrence, FOX cameras, and the Border War back on Kansas soil for the first time since 2005. Two new starting quarterbacks, two blowouts of FCS teams in the rearview, and a ranked Missouri side walking into the loudest building it will see before SEC play. The number says Missouri by a field goal and change. I'm taking the points, and the first reason is the price itself. The opponent-adjusted systems have this closer than the market does. SP+ rates Missouri 12.90 and Kansas 7.50, a gap of 5.4 points on a neutral field, and it calls the offenses even at 36th and 38th. FPI's gap is 6.2. This game is not on a neutral field. Kansas is at home, and a road favorite laying 4.5 here implies the market is grading Missouri above what either system supports, or crediting Lawrence with almost nothing. The line has already drifted from 5.5 at the opening book to 4.5 now, and I think the drift has further to go. The second reason is the matchup at the line of scrimmage, where the only 2026 evidence leans the home side. Kansas's rebuilt front was stuffed on 2.0 percent of its carries in the opener and Isaiah Marshall added 49 rushing yards on seven carries to his 14-of-19, 246-yard passing debut. Missouri's pass rush was the flagged concern coming out of its opener, one sack and six tackles for loss with front-seven havoc at 0.15. A mobile quarterback behind a line that stayed on schedule, against a front that has not yet shown it can get home, is a recipe for sustained drives. Flip it around and Kansas's defense generated eleven tackles for loss and three sacks with a 36.7 percent stuff rate, and it draws a Missouri ground game that lost another back to a season-ending injury this week and got 13 carries for 47 yards from Jamal Roberts in the opener. Eli Drinkwitz said out loud that he does not feel great about that room. If Kansas makes Missouri throw to move the ball, it is Austin Simmons in his second start, on the road, against a front that has already shown teeth. The obstacle is real and I am not hiding from it. Missouri's defense is the reason it is favored, ranked 21st in SP+ against a Kansas offense with five new linemen and a quarterback who had not played a full game in three years before last week. Simmons was 17-of-19 for 252 and four scores, and All-American tackle Cayden Green is trending back into the lineup, which makes Missouri's line better than anything its opener showed. Missouri also erased three deficits in Columbia last year and won by eleven. That is a legitimate path to a cover, and it is why this is a lean, not a pound. But last year's game also had Kansas up 21-6 and holding a lead in the fourth quarter on the road. Tonight the venue flips, the Missouri backfield is thinner, and the number gives the home team a full field goal and a hook against a spread the ratings do not fully support. In a rivalry game between two second-start quarterbacks, I want the side with the mobile passer, the front that got into the backfield, the crowd, and the points.