Today's free NBA picks

The winless Nets walk into TD Garden tonight against a Celtics team that just hung 134 on Chicago, and the books want Boston by 12.5. I expect Boston to win. I just don't trust them to win by that much. Boston has won by more than 12.5 once in three games, and that came against a 1-3 Bulls team missing Nic Claxton and Patrick Williams that turned it over 25 times. Take that 35-point win out and the Celtics are minus-4 combined against Detroit and New York. They also give leads back: up 13 at halftime in Detroit, they lost by 8, and their fourth quarters read minus-14, minus-6, plus-5. This is also Boston's second night of a back-to-back. The Celtics stay home and the starters played light Monday, so fatigue isn't the story. Minutes are. If Boston is up big after three, Tatum, George and company sit, and that's how a 12.5 gets beaten late. Brooklyn's 27-point loss to Indiana came on the second night of its own back-to-back, with Julius Randle playing 24 minutes and Michael Porter Jr. 21. On normal rest, the Nets lost by 7 and by 4. They keep scoring late, too: 41 in the fourth at Cleveland after trailing by 16, plus 25, 27 and 37 free-throw attempts in their three games. And they force turnovers, 21 and 23 in their first two games, against a Boston team that gave it away 25 times Monday. Six of those were Derrick White's, and White is probable tonight with right hip synovitis. This isn't a big play. Brooklyn allows 123.7 points a game on 50.6% shooting, and Boston is hitting 42.4% from three against a defense allowing 40.3%. The Nets also lost at home to a short-handed Charlotte, and if they turn it over 22 times like they did that night, this gets away early. Blending both teams' scoring puts Boston around 11.5 before any home edge, so the number is close. Still, a team that hasn't shown it can protect a lead has to win by 13 on a back-to-back where the starters will rest in a blowout. I'll take the points.

An 0-3 Kings team rolls into Frost Bank Center on one day of rest, and the market wants the 1-2 Spurs to win by 19. That's a lot to ask of a team that hasn't done it yet. San Antonio's best night was a 16-point win at Dallas. That Mavs team was missing Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving and coughed up 21 turnovers. Across three games the Spurs have scored 112.0 and allowed 112.0 a night, a net of zero. The shooting doesn't scream blowout either: they're 37-of-116 from three (31.9%) while taking 37 to 42 a game. Covering 18.5 probably takes a hot night from deep, not just the better roster. The bigger factor is the calendar. Tonight opens the Spurs' second back-to-back. If this is a 20-point game in the third quarter, Mitch Johnson has every reason to sit Wembanyama, Fox and Castle and hand it to Kornet, Bryant, Reed and Barnes. That's exactly where big spreads leak. Sacramento can score into that window. Zach LaVine has put up 28, 22 and 37 on 29-of-59 shooting. Domantas Sabonis is 21-of-26 from the field with 18, 19 and 15 rebounds. Two of the Kings' three losses were close: 8 to Portland and 11 to a 4-0 Memphis team. The Kings aren't good. They've allowed 124.0 a game, and a Clippers team without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and Max Strus beat them by 25. Opponents have made 43 threes to Sacramento's 26, and Darius Acuff Jr. is 4-of-27 from deep. With Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud out, only Precious Achiuwa and Jonathan Mogbo back up Sabonis against Wembanyama. Memphis just grabbed 18 offensive rebounds against them. On raw margins this line is fair. Sacramento is minus 14.7 a game and San Antonio is even, a 14.7-point gap before home court. My edge isn't about who's better. It's that the Spurs starters will likely sit before a 19-point lead is safe. Kings +18.5 at -105, small stake.

Madison Square Garden, Tuesday night: the 0-3 Knicks host a 3-0 Pistons team, and the book still has New York laying 4.5. The market is saying three games of results don't make a rating. When you open those games up, I agree. New York lost by 6, 4 and 9. They've been outscored 62-42 off turnovers, which accounts for the entire 19-point deficit. They've also made 36 threes to their opponents' 44, a 24-point gap. Mikal Bridges is 5-for-23 from the floor and 0-for-10 from deep, and Jalen Brunson is 4-for-15 from three. Those are slumps. The real part is Karl-Anthony Towns going 23-for-37 with 36 rebounds, and a Knicks team winning the offensive glass 38-26 with a 58-35 edge in second-chance points. Detroit's start has had help. The Pistons are shooting 42.0% from three, Duncan Robinson is 15-for-28, and opponents are hitting just 32.5% against them. Miami went 15-for-51. Philadelphia went 7-for-27 without Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe. Meanwhile Detroit has 54 turnovers and has given up 64 points off them while scoring 39. Cade Cunningham alone has 16. Hot shooting has covered that up. The matchup leans New York. Jalen Duren is out, leaving Paul Reed and John Collins against Towns. Even without Embiid, Philly put 52 in the paint on Detroit Sunday. Ausar Thompson, Detroit's best defensive wing when healthy, is questionable with an ankle sprain. Isaiah Joe is also questionable after leaving Sunday early. And it's Detroit's third road game in five days. The risks are real. The Knicks led Orlando 75-71 after three and lost the fourth 40-27. They're -20 in third quarters, and the bench is still unsettled. Cunningham has 8 assists in every game and can keep this close on his own. Detroit also already won by 13 in Philly without Duren or Thompson. Still, I'll take the Knicks to finally get one, and get it by five or more.

Two unbeaten teams meet at Crypto.com Arena tonight, and the Lakers are only laying a point and a half at home. That's close to a coin flip, so I'll take the side that gets the extra point. The mismatch is on the glass. The Lakers have given up 46 offensive rebounds in three games, including 20 at Utah that turned into 34 second-chance points. Portland has 29 offensive boards and 42 second-chance points in two games. With Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III, Portland has a real center on the floor almost all night. Behind Walker Kessler, the Lakers don't. Kevon Looney hasn't played a second half in either of the last two games, and Sandro Mamukelashvili has been filling those minutes. Every stretch Kessler sits is a chance for Portland, and Kessler is playing with a left finger splint. The Lakers have also been shooting hot. They're 45-of-107 from three as a team. Austin Reaves is 23-of-36 from the field, and Kessler started 22-of-26. Luka Dončić scoring 52 doesn't happen every night. Meanwhile the defense has slipped from 105 allowed to 117 to 123, and that 123 came against a Utah team that scored 47 in the first quarter. Rest favors Portland too. The Blazers have had three days off. The Lakers have had one, and tonight starts a back-to-back. The risks are real. Portland relies on threes, with 95 attempts in two games, and opponents are 34-of-108 from deep against the Lakers. Portland's defense has also been lucky: Phoenix and Sacramento combined to shoot 14-of-63 from three, so the 41-point Phoenix blowout isn't Portland's true level. The Lakers have forced 59 turnovers while committing 49, scored 80 points off them, and been to the line 90 times. Both teams have beaten weak, injury-hit opponents, so the records don't settle this. What does is the frontcourt: Portland has two real centers and the Lakers have one. Add the rest edge and some cooling from the Lakers' shooters, and I'll take Portland plus the point and a half.