Today's free MLB picks

I keep coming back to who's actually standing on the mound for San Francisco. Blade Tidwell has five starts on his record this season and his team has lost all five. Over his last three he's given up 12 earned runs in 15 innings with 8 walks, and his most recent outing was the worst of his career — three home runs and six earned to Arizona. His whiff rate has come in at 12% in two of his last three starts, and the sweeper he throws more than a third of the time got punished last time out. He puts the ball in the air more than he keeps it down, and today it's 83 degrees at PNC with the wind blowing out to left. The split is what seals it. Left-handed hitters have hit .292 with an .893 OPS and four homers off him; right-handers .182 with a .472 OPS. Pittsburgh's card today is Horwitz, Lowe, Cruz and Jacob Gonzalez from the left side plus Reynolds and Mangum switching. The Pirates are 54-42 against right-handed starters this season and 14-30 against lefties — this is the schedule slot they handle. Lowe carries a .900 OPS with 23 homers against righties, Gonzales .332 with an .830, Cruz an .842 OPS overall. And this specific nine is 25-for-69 in the series and 48-for-157 over the last week, with Gonzales, Cruz and Lowe all in the middle of hot stretches.

Yes, Pittsburgh is running a bullpen game, and normally I'd fade that. Not this one. Lake Bachar opens on his eighth such assignment and has allowed two earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, with a curveball generating a 36.6% whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA. Behind him, this relief corps has been the strength of the roster — a 3.12 ERA over the last ten days across 34.2 innings — with Yates, Soto, Weaver, Montgomery and Ramírez all having sat two to four days. Montgomery hasn't allowed a run since late July. Weaver sits at a 2.58 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Dotel was brought up this morning for length. More to the point, a parade of arms is exactly the right format against this Giants lineup. Devers is genuinely locked in and I'm not pretending otherwise — .421 over a 10-game hit streak, 32 homers, homers in three straight. But he never sees the same pitcher twice today, and Pittsburgh already showed last night it will just walk him with the game on the line. Behind Devers and Eldridge, San Francisco is running out Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats, and Gilbert leading off at 1-for-14 over the past week.

That's a lot of outs available. And the other bullpen is in worse shape, not better. San Francisco used five arms yesterday, Seymour on back-to-back days, with Perdomo having thrown 58 pitches Tuesday and Roxby 31. Their unit is at a 4.61 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP on the year and no set closer. Underneath it, the fundamentals line up the same direction: Pittsburgh at +26 run differential, San Francisco at -70. Pirates 22-17 in one-run games, Giants 12-25. Pittsburgh is 39-32 after a loss. Home team, day game, and the Giants are on the fourth game of a road trip with a flight to New York waiting. The Pirates offense outside that nine-run inning has been thin — 2.6 runs a game over the other nine of their last ten — and that's the honest risk here. But the price at -166 is asking for about 60% and I think the pitching matchup alone gets there. I'll lay it.

At an even price, I prefer Cleveland’s path from the starter through the late innings. Tanner Bibee has allowed six earned runs over 18.0 innings across his last three starts, all three of which lasted 6.0 innings. José Soriano has allowed 11 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last three, although his latest start—7.0 innings and three earned runs—shows this is only a modest starting-pitching edge.

Cleveland’s left- and switch-heavy lineup also gets the more favorable side of Soriano’s platoon split; he has allowed a .702 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .573 to right-handed hitters. Toronto can counter with six left-handed bats against Bibee, who has allowed a .736 OPS and 20 home runs to lefties, but the Blue Jays are sitting George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Kazuma Okamoto and Myles Straw. Cleveland is also resting Angel Martínez and Patrick Bailey, so I am not treating the lineup angle as overwhelming.

The separator is Cleveland’s pitching depth. Its active bullpen carries a 3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, compared with Toronto’s 4.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, and Cleveland’s principal late-inning arms are available. Toronto has rested leverage options of its own, but Bibee’s recent stability and the stronger overall bullpen give the Guardians the slightly cleaner route at the same price.

Hunter Brown is the separator I’m willing to pay for. His last three starts produced 17.1 innings, four earned runs and 19 strikeouts. Luis Castillo’s last three produced 11.1 innings, 11 earned runs and five strikeouts, and he failed to complete five innings in each one. Brown’s nine walks over that stretch are the concern, but his latest start brought 6.2 innings, one earned run, 10 strikeouts and one walk.

The matchup evidence supports that advantage. Castillo has a 10.00 ERA in two starts against Houston this season, while Yordan Alvarez is 11-for-21 with four home runs against him. Brown held Chicago scoreless in his provided start against the White Sox. Those samples are not decisive by themselves, but they point in the same direction as the pitchers’ current form.

Chicago’s bullpen is the primary risk to this bet, but Castillo’s recent lack of length could force it to cover substantial innings, and Sean Newcomb threw 41 pitches yesterday. Houston has Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Enyel De Los Santos available after none pitched since August 31, with Josh Hader carrying a 0.72 season ERA behind them. I’m laying the price because Houston has the better chance to control the game from Brown through its late-inning arms.

Jake Bennett is the separator. He enters off six scoreless innings against the Yankees with seven strikeouts and no walks, complementing a 3.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 3.02 road ERA. Baltimore has six right-handed hitters against the lefty, but Bennett has still limited righties to a .247 average and .656 OPS.

Boston also brings the hotter confirmed lineup: 43-for-151 (.285) over the last seven days, compared with Baltimore’s 36-for-175 (.206). The decisive situational edge is relief availability. Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Erik Miller are rested, while Baltimore used six relievers yesterday and Josh Walker has pitched three of the last four days.

Boston’s bullpen allowing 28 earned runs in 27.0 innings over the last five days keeps this at modest confidence. Brandon Young is coming off seven innings of one-run ball, and Coby Mayo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand own 1.144 and 1.069 OPS marks against lefties. Still, Bennett’s form and Boston’s better-positioned late-inning arms are enough for me to lay -122.

Logan Henderson is the separator. He has allowed three earned runs over his last 20.0 innings and completed at least six innings in five consecutive starts. That length matters because JoJo Romero, Antonio Senzatela, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby all worked the last two days.

Milwaukee also has the better late-game foundation. Its bullpen owns a 3.10 ERA over the last 10 days and delivered five scoreless innings Wednesday; Chicago’s bullpen has a 7.58 ERA over that span, with Jacob Webb’s fresh right-forearm contusion adding uncertainty. The Brewers’ confirmed nine are batting .342 in this series and .323 over the last seven days, giving them a credible matchup against a volatile Kevin Gausman.

Chicago’s dangerous power and Milwaukee’s recent bullpen usage keep this from being a high-confidence play. Still, the 9 mph wind in from right field helps contain the Cubs’ clearest offensive weapon, and Henderson provides the best route to protecting Milwaukee’s relievers. At -122, I’ll back the stronger starter and more dependable bullpen.

This is a bet on Michael Wacha’s matchup, not on Kansas City being “due.” Wacha has allowed five earned runs across his last 20 innings with 19 strikeouts and one walk. He also owns a 3.04 home ERA and has limited left-handed hitters to a .216 average and .606 OPS. That is a strong fit against a Miami lineup starting five left-handed bats.

Sandy Alcantara remains a formidable opponent, but his 4.22 road ERA contrasts with Wacha’s home work. Kansas City’s confirmed nine has hit .291 with 15 home runs over the last 15 days, and Michael Massey returned Wednesday with two hits and a double. The Royals have enough current offense to support the starting-pitching edge I see.

Kansas City’s bullpen is the primary risk. However, Wacha has completed seven and eight innings in his last two starts, Steven Cruz has not pitched in six days, and Craig Kimbrel and Nate Pearson threw only nine and 14 pitches yesterday. At a modest -116, Wacha’s recent command, home performance and handedness advantage are enough for me to back Kansas City.

Quantrill is the fulcrum. Over his last three starts, he has worked 19.0 innings with 3 ER, 19 K and 0 BB, and his five home starts have produced a 1.20 ERA over 30.0 innings. McClanahan is a quality opponent, but he has a 3.86 ERA over his last three starts, a 3.91 road ERA, and has not completed six innings in any of his last six starts.

That creates a real chance for Texas to get to Tampa Bay’s bullpen earlier. The confirmed Rangers lineup also sends seven right-handed hitters at McClanahan. Duran owns an .862 OPS against lefties, Foscue .989 and Burger .863; even the left-handed Nimmo is at .875.

Collectively, these nine are 44-for-157 (.280) with 6 HR over the last 7 days. Texas’ recent bullpen performance is the main danger, but Latz last pitched two days ago and Junis and Alexander last pitched four days ago, while Baker, Matz, Booser and Rodríguez all worked yesterday for Tampa Bay. The Rays have the better overall relief profile, but at +112 I’m taking Quantrill, Texas’ handedness setup and the more attractive price.

I’m paying for the run because Seattle’s pitching advantage may not last deep enough into this game. Kade Anderson has completed only 10 innings across two MLB starts, issued five walks and is working under an 80-pitch threshold. That likely exposes a Seattle bullpen that has allowed 18 earned runs in 21.1 innings over the last seven days. José A. Ferrer has pitched on consecutive days, Seranthony Domínguez has worked three of the last four, and Michael Rucker threw 36 pitches yesterday.

Oakland’s listed nine are hitting .288 with eight home runs over the last seven days. Henry Bolte, Zack Gelof, Jonah Heim and Alika Williams also carry OPS marks of .785 or better against left-handed pitching. Behind them, the Athletics’ bullpen has allowed 11 earned runs in 25.2 innings over the last seven days and has the well-rested Elvis Alvarado available.

Jack Perkins is the obvious danger after allowing 12 earned runs in his last 13 innings, but he did limit Baltimore to one earned run over five innings in his latest start. In a pitcher-friendly park, Oakland does not need him to outpitch Anderson; it needs him to prevent an early separation before Anderson’s pitch limit brings Seattle’s bullpen into play. The extra run also has added value against a home team that may not bat in the ninth when leading. I make the Athletics more likely to stay within one run or win than the -126 price requires.

I’m laying the run and a half because tonight’s matchup is materially different from the first two games. Tarik Skubal has held right-handed hitters to a .189 average and .549 OPS across 350 at-bats, and St. Louis is starting seven right-handed hitters, one left-handed hitter and one switch-hitter. Skubal also enters off three starts covering 19.0 innings with five earned runs, 25 strikeouts and three walks.

Quinn Mathews has made only four MLB starts and has not completed six innings. He owns a 6.43 road ERA over 14.0 innings, while right-handed hitters have batted .297 with a .756 OPS against him. Los Angeles counters with six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, and its current nine are batting .340 in this series and .290 over the last seven days.

The bullpen bridge is the separator. St. Louis played an eight-pitcher game Wednesday, Graceffo threw 48 pitches, and Fernandez, Gastelum and Bruihl all worked for a second consecutive day. That matters behind a starter whose four outings have lasted between 4.0 and 5.2 innings. Los Angeles used only three relievers Wednesday, none worked both of the last two days, and its current bullpen owns a 3.37 season ERA compared with St. Louis’ 3.75.

Ohtani and Muncy sitting—and the expensive -130 price—keep me from making this a high-confidence play. But Skubal’s specific matchup against this lineup, Mathews’ road uncertainty and the Cardinals’ relief workload give Los Angeles enough paths to create the required separation.