Brewers MoneylineThe Brewers walk into Tropicana Field tonight up 3-0 in the World Series, one win from a title. The Rays have no tomorrow if they lose. Milwaukee opens with Dustin May on two days' rest and a bullpen game planned behind May, and Tampa Bay counters with Griffin Jax. The bullpens decide this one. Milwaukee's best relievers are rested. Trevor Megill has 3 full days off, and Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, DL Hall and JoJo Romero each have 2. Ashby has thrown 15.2 postseason innings without allowing a run. Tampa Bay used Freddy Peralta for 87 pitches last night, then Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Garrett Cleavinger, Tyler Wells and Steven Matz, all now on 0 days off. That leaves Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, Ian Seymour and Nick Martinez as the fresh arms, and Drew Rasmussen is reportedly unlikely to pitch. That's a thin menu for an elimination game. Jax won't go deep. Over the last five starts, Jax topped out at 5.0 innings and 74 pitches. Lefties hit .248 with a .704 OPS and 10 HR against Jax this season, compared with .216 and .632 for righties, and Milwaukee starts six left-handed bats. The middle innings figure to land on Martinez and a tired pen. The Rays haven't hit. Their .614 OPS and 3.50 runs per game this postseason run into a Brewers staff allowing 2.55. Last night they managed one hit in six innings off Robert Gasser. Meanwhile William Contreras is 18 for 43 with 3 HR this October, and Jackson Chourio went 4 for 5 in Game 3. Then there's the feel of this team. The Brewers are 10-1 this postseason and swept the Dodgers 4-0. Close games or blowouts, they've found a way. The risk is real. May on short rest is an unknown, and in NLCS Game 4 May gave up 3 earned runs in 3 innings. If Pat Murphy has to go to the pen early, Milwaukee's edge shrinks late. Games 1 and 2 were one-run games, 3-2 and 5-4, and a rested Baker waits to close for a desperate home team. The -124 price says this is close. Still, I'll take the deeper, fresher bullpen. Brewers.
The Brewers walk into Tropicana Field tonight up 3-0 in the World Series, one win from a title. The Rays have no tomorrow if they lose. Milwaukee opens with Dustin May on two days' rest and a bullpen game planned behind May, and Tampa Bay counters with Griffin Jax.
The bullpens decide this one. Milwaukee's best relievers are rested. Trevor Megill has 3 full days off, and Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, DL Hall and JoJo Romero each have 2. Ashby has thrown 15.2 postseason innings without allowing a run. Tampa Bay used Freddy Peralta for 87 pitches last night, then Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Garrett Cleavinger, Tyler Wells and Steven Matz, all now on 0 days off. That leaves Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, Ian Seymour and Nick Martinez as the fresh arms, and Drew Rasmussen is reportedly unlikely to pitch. That's a thin menu for an elimination game.
Jax won't go deep. Over the last five starts, Jax topped out at 5.0 innings and 74 pitches. Lefties hit .248 with a .704 OPS and 10 HR against Jax this season, compared with .216 and .632 for righties, and Milwaukee starts six left-handed bats. The middle innings figure to land on Martinez and a tired pen.
The Rays haven't hit. Their .614 OPS and 3.50 runs per game this postseason run into a Brewers staff allowing 2.55. Last night they managed one hit in six innings off Robert Gasser. Meanwhile William Contreras is 18 for 43 with 3 HR this October, and Jackson Chourio went 4 for 5 in Game 3.
Then there's the feel of this team. The Brewers are 10-1 this postseason and swept the Dodgers 4-0. Close games or blowouts, they've found a way.
The risk is real. May on short rest is an unknown, and in NLCS Game 4 May gave up 3 earned runs in 3 innings. If Pat Murphy has to go to the pen early, Milwaukee's edge shrinks late. Games 1 and 2 were one-run games, 3-2 and 5-4, and a rested Baker waits to close for a desperate home team. The -124 price says this is close.
Still, I'll take the deeper, fresher bullpen. Brewers.