Brewers at Rays

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The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  DUSTIN MAYPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 0.5

  MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -160

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Dustin May over 0.5 earned runs at -160. One earned run cashes this. May has been charged with earned runs in four of his last five starts. The clean one was a six-inning outing against Cincinnati in mid-September. His October work points the same way. His two short relief stints were scoreless. In both outings that reached three innings he allowed earned runs, including three runs in three innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS. When May gives up runs, they come fast. Most of the runs he allowed in his recent starts came on home runs, so one swing can do it. Lefties have done their best work against him all season, and the Rays start four left-handed bats plus Walls from both sides. Runners have gone 9 for 13 stealing off May this year, and an elimination team will want to force the action. If Pat Murphy pulls May with men on base, any of those runners who score land on May's line. There's a real case against. The Trop suppresses offense, the Rays scored once last night, and a short stint shrinks the window. William Contreras has shut down the Rays' running game all series. Milwaukee's high-leverage relievers are fresh, so Murphy can bring in a strong arm to strand anything May leaves behind. Junior Caminero is the one Rays hitter with real power, and he is 0 for 3 lifetime off May, too few at-bats to read either way. The -160 price is steep for a single run. Still, May is on two days' rest and has struggled to keep runs off the board for two months. He only needs one mistake to lose this. Over.

  ×

  Dustin May
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 0.5

  -160 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Milwaukee Brewers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Dustin May over 0.5 earned runs at -160.

  One earned run cashes this. May has been charged with earned runs in four of his last five starts. The clean one was a six-inning outing against Cincinnati in mid-September. His October work points the same way. His two short relief stints were scoreless. In both outings that reached three innings he allowed earned runs, including three runs in three innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS.

  When May gives up runs, they come fast. Most of the runs he allowed in his recent starts came on home runs, so one swing can do it. Lefties have done their best work against him all season, and the Rays start four left-handed bats plus Walls from both sides. Runners have gone 9 for 13 stealing off May this year, and an elimination team will want to force the action. If Pat Murphy pulls May with men on base, any of those runners who score land on May's line.

  There's a real case against. The Trop suppresses offense, the Rays scored once last night, and a short stint shrinks the window. William Contreras has shut down the Rays' running game all series. Milwaukee's high-leverage relievers are fresh, so Murphy can bring in a strong arm to strand anything May leaves behind. Junior Caminero is the one Rays hitter with real power, and he is 0 for 3 lifetime off May, too few at-bats to read either way. The -160 price is steep for a single run.

  Still, May is on two days' rest and has struggled to keep runs off the board for two months. He only needs one mistake to lose this. Over.

• GARY'S PICK

  DUSTIN MAYPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 2.5

  MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -140

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  GARY'S TAKE

  Dustin May over 2.5 hits allowed at -140. May starts Game 4 on two days' rest, coming off a 12-pitch relief inning in Game 2. I expect about three innings and somewhere around a dozen hitters. The outs line sits at 8.5, so the market sees it the same way. Three hits in that window is a fair ask against this lineup. The Rays are built on contact. Tonight's nine strike out less than the league does, and on the turf at Tropicana Field ground balls get through in a hurry. Kevin Cash starts four left-handed bats: Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson and Richie Palacios. He adds the switch-hitting Taylor Walls. Lefties have hit May harder than righties all season, with more power too. Aranda already doubled off him in Game 2. Simpson brings the kind of speed that turns soft contact into hits. May has also allowed a lot of hard contact this season. His last two outings that reached three innings, at San Diego in the NLDS and against St. Louis in September, each produced exactly three hits. The case against is real. Short rest could mean two innings instead of three, and at Philadelphia on Sept. 22 he went two innings and gave up one hit. The Rays have barely hit all series, and they managed one hit in six innings off Robert Gasser last night. The Trop holds offense down. The career matchups lean my way but are tiny. Yandy Diaz is 3 for 3 off May and Jonny DeLuca is 2 for 2. Five at-bats prove nothing on their own. At -140 I'll take a contact lineup with four lefties on turf against a pitcher who gives up hard contact. Over.

  ×

  Dustin May
  Pitcher Hits Allowed over 2.5

  -140 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  Milwaukee Brewers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Dustin May over 2.5 hits allowed at -140.

  May starts Game 4 on two days' rest, coming off a 12-pitch relief inning in Game 2. I expect about three innings and somewhere around a dozen hitters. The outs line sits at 8.5, so the market sees it the same way. Three hits in that window is a fair ask against this lineup.

  The Rays are built on contact. Tonight's nine strike out less than the league does, and on the turf at Tropicana Field ground balls get through in a hurry. Kevin Cash starts four left-handed bats: Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson and Richie Palacios. He adds the switch-hitting Taylor Walls. Lefties have hit May harder than righties all season, with more power too. Aranda already doubled off him in Game 2. Simpson brings the kind of speed that turns soft contact into hits. May has also allowed a lot of hard contact this season. His last two outings that reached three innings, at San Diego in the NLDS and against St. Louis in September, each produced exactly three hits.

  The case against is real. Short rest could mean two innings instead of three, and at Philadelphia on Sept. 22 he went two innings and gave up one hit. The Rays have barely hit all series, and they managed one hit in six innings off Robert Gasser last night. The Trop holds offense down. The career matchups lean my way but are tiny. Yandy Diaz is 3 for 3 off May and Jonny DeLuca is 2 for 2. Five at-bats prove nothing on their own.

  At -140 I'll take a contact lineup with four lefties on turf against a pitcher who gives up hard contact. Over.

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