Gary AI model audit
PUBLIC LEDGERA recomputed view of the same results Gary publishes on the record: monthly performance, outcome calibration by confidence band, and the raw data behind both.
Monthly game-pick tape
Every decided game pick remains in its month. Units use flat one-unit stakes at the listed odds; pushes count as graded but not as decisions.
| Month | Record | Win % | Net | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 196-200 | 49% | -26.9u | 396 |
| July 2026 | 203-195 | 51% | -19.9u | 398 |
| June 2026 | 268-179 | 60% | +64.1u | 447 |
| May 2026 | 145-119 | 55% | +6.4u | 264 |
| April 2026 | 217-186 | 54% | +5.2u | 403 |
| March 2026 | 279-249-6 | 53% | +0.2u | 534 |
| February 2026 | 116-116-1 | 50% | -10.4u | 233 |
| January 2026 | 124-119-1 | 51% | -4.4u | 244 |
| December 2025 | 122-106 | 54% | +5.6u | 228 |
| June 2025 | 5-5 | 50% | -0.8u | 10 |
| May 2025 | 43-25 | 63% | +12.4u | 68 |
| April 2025 | 1-1 | 50% | -0.1u | 2 |
Confidence calibration
Confidence is Gary's ranking signal, not a promise of win probability. This table shows what actually happened inside each displayed band.
60–69% confidence
92-82
53% won · 174 graded · avg label 66%
70–79% confidence
53-37
59% won · 90 graded · avg label 75%
80–89% confidence
13-18
42% won · 31 graded · avg label 83%
90–100% confidence
1-1
50% won · 2 graded · avg label 92%
Player props
2528-3369 · 43% · -487.3u · 5897 graded
Some historical winning props have no recorded odds and use the disclosed 0.9-unit fallback in net-unit calculations. The raw export retains the original missing values.
Methodology, known corrections, and source policy are documented in the editorial standards, corrections process, and data-source policy.