Rockies at Yankees
O/U 9.5 · RL Yankees -3.5 · Yankee Stadium
The line
BETMGM · 13 moves| Market | Opened Thu 5:00 AM | Close Thu 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -2.5 (+105) | Yankees -3.5 (-130) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-120) | 9.5 (-105) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -325 | Yankees -800 | −475 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENThu 5:00 AM | Yankees -2.5 (+105) | 8.5 (-120) | Yankees -325 · Rockies +260 |
| Thu 6:00 AM | Yankees -2.5 (+105) | 9 (+105) | Yankees -350 · Rockies +275 |
| Thu 7:15 AM | Yankees -2.5 (+115) | 9 (+105) | Yankees -325 · Rockies +260 |
| Thu 8:00 AM | Yankees -2.5 (+115) | 9 (+100) | Yankees -325 · Rockies +260 |
| Thu 10:21 AM | Yankees -2.5 (+115) | 8.5 (-102) | Yankees -325 · Rockies +260 |
| Thu 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (-135) | 8 (-120) | Yankees -300 · Rockies +240 |
| Thu 2:40 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-130) | 8.5 (-105) | Yankees -300 · Rockies +240 |
| Thu 3:55 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-130) | 8.5 (-102) | Yankees -295 · Rockies +230 |
| Thu 4:12 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-135) | 8.5 (-102) | Yankees -295 · Rockies +230 |
| Thu 4:22 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-135) | 8.5 (-102) | Yankees -300 · Rockies +240 |
| Thu 4:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-140) | 8.5 (+100) | Yankees -300 · Rockies +240 |
| Thu 5:10 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-135) | 8.5 (+100) | Yankees -295 · Rockies +230 |
| Thu 7:10 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-135) | 8.5 (-102) | Yankees -300 · Rockies +240 |
| CLOSEThu 7:30 PM | Yankees -3.5 (-130) | 9.5 (-105) | Yankees -800 · Rockies +500 |
The read
The pitching advantage gives New York a path to building a lead and protecting it. Max Fried has a 2.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, supported by a 1.6% barrel rate allowed. Ryan Feltner has surrendered 16 earned runs and 10 walks across his last three starts. His problems extend beyond that stretch: opponents have hit .344 against his four-seam fastball, while his slider has allowed a .423 xwOBA. Those are his two most-used pitches.
Ben Rice and Luis García Jr. are the strongest reasons to expect this particular Yankees lineup to capitalize. Rice owns a .925 OPS against right-handed pitching; García owns a .902 OPS. Feltner has allowed left-handed hitters an .885 OPS, making those matchups appealing even with Aaron Judge on the bench. This is not an assumption that every Yankees lefty benefits equally—Spencer Jones has a .650 OPS against right-handers.
The advantage continues after the starters leave. New York’s current bullpen arms have a 2.96 season ERA, compared with Colorado’s 4.81. David Bednar and Brent Headrick both sat yesterday after throwing three and 13 pitches, respectively, in the opener. That gives New York useful options to protect the margin, particularly if Fried does not pitch deep.
Judge’s rest and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s fresh thumb injury make laying the run line less comfortable. Feltner also has an effective changeup, so another poor start is no certainty. But the combination of his command problems, Rice and García’s production against right-handers, and New York’s stronger relief pitching is enough for me to back the Yankees at this price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Ryan Feltner: 9.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
9.19Ryan Feltner has allowed 16 earned runs and 21 hits in 15.2 innings over his last three starts. His 9.19 ERA in that span is 3.29 above his 5.91 season ERA entering COL at NYY.
PLATOON EDGE
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
.902Luis Garcia Jr. has a .902 OPS in 387 AB vs. RHP, compared with .652 in 78 AB vs. LHP. The left-handed hitter bats fourth tonight against RHP Ryan Feltner.
HEAT CHECK
TJ Rumfield: 1.243 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.243TJ Rumfield has a 1.243 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 at-bats. That is 0.393 above his .850 season mark.
COOLING OFF
Mickey Moniak: .428 OPS in Last 15 Days
.428Mickey Moniak has a .428 OPS over the last 15 days in 44 at-bats. That is 0.355 below his .783 season mark.
George Lombard Jr.: .459 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Feltner
.459George Lombard Jr. has a .459 OPS over the last 15 days in 33 AB, below his .674 season mark. He faces RHP Ryan Feltner tonight and has a .632 OPS vs. RHP across 77 AB.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of COL @ NYY
NRFIA run was scored by either team in the first inning in 3 of 10 sampled NYY games and 3 of 10 sampled COL games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Max Fried: 3.71 ERA, .220 opponent AVG across 17.0 IP, 1 HR; Ryan Feltner: 5.14 ERA, .275 opponent AVG across 21.0 IP, 5 HR.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Yankees are 2-0 vs Rockies this season
2-0The Yankees are 2-0 against Colorado across two meetings this season, including a 6-1 win in the latest game. The results do not show whether pitching, venue or another repeatable factor shaped them.
TEAM RECORD
Rockies 2-6 in Ryan Feltner's last 8 starts
2-6Colorado is 2-6 in Ryan Feltner’s last eight starts this season, with team losses in the last three. Feltner starts tonight at the Yankees.
REGRESSION
TJ Rumfield: .297 AVG vs .261 xBA
.261TJ Rumfield has a .297 average versus a .261 xBA over 573 plate appearances, while his .374 wOBA exceeds his .335 xwOBA. His results have run ahead of the contact-quality marks entering COL at NYY, but the data does not establish tonight’s direction.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, draftkings, fanduel, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKRYAN MCMAHONWALKS UNDER 0.5
McMahon has gone over this number just three times in his last 15 games, and he is facing Ryan Feltner with a lineup spot that does not guarantee a large plate-appearance total. McMahon has also drawn only 26 walks in 296 at-bats this season. At this price, I’m backing the under.
- GARY'S PICKAUSTIN WELLSH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Wells has cleared this number only four times in his last 15 games and has produced just two hits, runs or RBIs across his last five. He is hitting .182 with a .581 OPS for the season, and Max Fried has been particularly effective against left-handed hitters. Batting eighth also limits his chances to pile up production. I’ll take the under.
- THE LONG SHOTLUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5
Garcia is the home-run swing I want from this board. He has 29 homers, has already gone deep in this series, and owns a .902 OPS against right-handed pitching. Ryan Feltner has allowed a .344 average and a .374 expected wOBA on his four-seam fastball, while Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch is a natural fit for Garcia’s left-handed power. The price is long, but the matchup gives him a real path to another homer.
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