Sports picks for Thursday, September 10, 2026

154 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· -102

Martinez’s command is the deciding factor for me. He has walked 24 batters in 160.0 innings this season; Pérez has walked 54 in 124.2. Martinez’s last three starts produced 12 strikeouts against two walks, and he completed at least six innings in each. Against an Atlanta offense that has scored three runs across its last three games, that ability to avoid handing over baserunners gives Tampa Bay a credible starting advantage. Díaz, Vilade and Caminero give the Rays a productive top of the order against left-handed pitching, with respective OPS marks of .871, .839 and .954. Pérez’s recent control creates an opening for that group: he has issued nine walks across his last three starts. Tampa Bay needs to capitalize there because today’s lineup is different from the group responsible for much of the series damage. That lineup change keeps my confidence modest. Hicks, Aranda, Mesa and Palacios are on the bench, and Pérez has held right-handed hitters to a .655 OPS. Atlanta also has rested late-inning options. There is a legitimate path for the Braves to keep this close. But Tampa Bay’s principal relief options have room to work, too. Wells last pitched September 5; Baker and Kelly last pitched September 8. Martinez’s recent innings give the Rays a plausible bridge to those arms. At -102, I’m backing his command and Tampa Bay’s strongest bats against Pérez, with the lineup changes keeping this a measured play.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· +108

Wheeler’s recent recovery gives Philadelphia the starting-pitching advantage I want here. His last two starts each lasted six innings with one earned run allowed, following a reported adjustment to his front-arm position. Houston starts six right-handed hitters, and Wheeler has held righties to a .183 average and .558 OPS this season. Alvarez is the obvious danger, but this lineup gives Wheeler a favorable matchup around him. Philadelphia has a concrete route to damage against Javier’s primary pitch. Javier throws his four-seamer 49.8% of the time and has allowed a .373 xwOBA on it. Harper has slugged .678 against four-seamers, Schwarber .552. Javier’s effective sweeper and excellent last outing deserve respect, but I trust Philadelphia’s opportunities against his fastball enough to back the run line. The innings after Javier are another reason to take Philadelphia. He has worked four or five innings in each of his last four listed starts. Blubaugh pitched both preceding days, and Imai threw 43 pitches Wednesday. Philadelphia has distributed its relief work without anyone pitching on consecutive days across those games, giving it more flexibility if Wheeler hands over a lead. Houston can keep this tight: Hader and Abreu both sat Wednesday, and Philadelphia’s lower order has struggled recently. That keeps my confidence measured. Still, Wheeler’s matchup, Philadelphia’s power against Javier’s most-used pitch, and Houston’s potential middle-relief exposure give me enough reason to accept the two-run requirement at +108.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· +108

The late innings are a major reason I’m taking Texas. Jacob Latz owns a 1.85 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, and he, Jakob Junis and Chase Silseth have not pitched since September 6. Texas has allowed one earned run in seven bullpen innings this series. Seattle’s main finishing arms all worked yesterday; that doesn’t make them unavailable, but Texas has the clearer rest advantage among its late-game options. There’s an opportunity against Logan Gilbert before that. His last three starts produced a 7.36 ERA, and he surrendered four homers in his latest outing. The ten strikeouts in that game matter—his ability to miss bats hasn’t disappeared—but the damage on contact matters, too. Texas’s listed lineup has five homers in this series, with Corey Seager homering in both games. That gives the Rangers a credible way to capitalize if Gilbert makes more mistakes. Jacob deGrom’s road performance is the biggest objection: a 5.86 ERA across 63.0 innings deserves real weight. Still, his latest two starts were seven scoreless innings followed by six innings with two earned runs. His .636 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters also fits reasonably well against Seattle’s lineup, which includes five left-handed bats. Gilbert can rebound, and deGrom’s recent home outings don’t erase his road problems. This is a modest-confidence bet. At +108, I’m backing Texas’s recent power production and rested late-inning options to support deGrom.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -122

The pitching advantage gives New York a path to building a lead and protecting it. Max Fried has a 2.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, supported by a 1.6% barrel rate allowed. Ryan Feltner has surrendered 16 earned runs and 10 walks across his last three starts. His problems extend beyond that stretch: opponents have hit .344 against his four-seam fastball, while his slider has allowed a .423 xwOBA. Those are his two most-used pitches. Ben Rice and Luis García Jr. are the strongest reasons to expect this particular Yankees lineup to capitalize. Rice owns a .925 OPS against right-handed pitching; García owns a .902 OPS. Feltner has allowed left-handed hitters an .885 OPS, making those matchups appealing even with Aaron Judge on the bench. This is not an assumption that every Yankees lefty benefits equally—Spencer Jones has a .650 OPS against right-handers. The advantage continues after the starters leave. New York’s current bullpen arms have a 2.96 season ERA, compared with Colorado’s 4.81. David Bednar and Brent Headrick both sat yesterday after throwing three and 13 pitches, respectively, in the opener. That gives New York useful options to protect the margin, particularly if Fried does not pitch deep. Judge’s rest and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s fresh thumb injury make laying the run line less comfortable. Feltner also has an effective changeup, so another poor start is no certainty. But the combination of his command problems, Rice and García’s production against right-handers, and New York’s stronger relief pitching is enough for me to back the Yankees at this price.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -108

Jones gives Pittsburgh the better chance to get meaningful innings from its starter against an offense struggling to produce. He struck out nine with one walk over six scoreless innings in his last start, and his slider carries a 40.3% whiff rate this season. Chicago has scored 3.4 runs per game over its last ten, while tonight’s starting nine have hit .200 over the last seven days. Jones’ uneven August keeps me from treating that rebound as a guarantee, but this is a matchup where I favor his strikeout ability. Smith is a serious obstacle. His 0.56 ERA comes from just 16.0 relief innings, however, and his previous maximum is 48 pitches. His first MLB start introduces uncertainty about how much of the game he can cover. Pittsburgh has credible answers to a left-hander: Cruz and Reynolds each carry an .827 OPS against lefties. That matters more to me tonight than simply expecting the Pirates’ winning streak to continue. Chicago’s bullpen is the strongest argument against the ticket. Taylor last pitched September 6, while Pittsburgh used seven relievers yesterday. But Soto and Mason Montgomery threw 17 pitches apiece and have worked consecutive days this season; yesterday’s bullpen game does not automatically leave Pittsburgh without its late options. At this price, I favor Jones providing more length and Pittsburgh finding enough offense against Smith and the pitchers following him. It’s a modest edge, with Chicago’s rested late relief keeping the confidence measured.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFLvs 49ers· -112

The NFL's first regular-season game in Australia kicks off at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on a cool, calm, overcast morning, with the 49ers a full week into their acclimation and the Rams landing a day before kickoff. Two NFC West contenders coming off deep January runs, Stafford's MVP season on one sideline and Shanahan's full-strength skill group on the other, and a Netflix audience watching a rivalry that has split its last six regular-season meetings. I land on the Rams because the widest gap on this field is first and second down, and that gap decides who gets to play their kind of game. The Rams' offense last season posted a +0.19 EPA per play on early downs with a 52.3% success rate, the best split in this matchup by a distance. The 49ers' defense allowed +0.09 per play and a 49.7% success rate on those same downs, the worst split in it. San Francisco's defense earned its keep on third down last year. The Rams' offense simply did not visit third down very often, and when an offense stays on schedule against a defense that needs third down to get off the field, the drives get long and the scoreboard moves. That is the shape the Rams built in November when they scored on their first three possessions in Santa Clara. The trench matchup points the same direction. The Rams' pass rush produced a 16.9% quarterback hit rate and a 6.6% sack rate last season, and that baseline was built without Aaron Donald and without Myles Garrett. Donald sitting tonight subtracts nothing from it. Garrett, acquired in June and cleared with no designation, adds to it. He and Byron Young line up across from a 49ers protection that allowed a 12.7% hit rate and a 4.3% sack rate last year and now starts a rookie at left guard with its interior depth on injured reserve. Trent Williams anchors the blind side, but the pressure is coming from both edges. On the other side, the 49ers' rush generated an 8.8% hit rate and a 3.3% sack rate against a Rams line that gave up a 3.9% sack rate. Bosa is back and that matters, but Stafford's protection was sound last year and the Rams' tackles are unchanged. The fresh news this week also leans to the Rams. Alfred Collins tore a patellar tendon in Tuesday's practice and is done for the year, Sam Okuayinonu is on injured reserve after breaking his foot, and Mykel Williams is on the physically unable to perform list. That is three interior bodies gone from a 49ers defense in the last few days, and it faces a Rams run game that averaged 4.6 yards per carry and converted 66.0% of short-yardage snaps. The Rams' red-zone defense allowed a 38.1% success rate against the 49ers' 49.4%, so when the field shrinks, the Rams have the better unit on both sides. The game-script numbers close the case. When trailing by more than a score last season, the Rams' offense posted +0.37 EPA per play. The 49ers' offense posted -0.04 in the same spot. If the Rams get ahead, the 49ers' 2025 offense did not play well from behind. If the 49ers get ahead, the Rams' offense was at its best chasing. And the Rams' defense forced 131 third-and-long situations last season and allowed a 24.4% success rate on them. The 49ers' third-and-long production, +0.42 per play on 89 snaps, is the thinnest sample in their profile and the piece most likely to come back toward the middle. What keeps this a measured ticket rather than a heavy one: the 49ers' kicking edge is real, Piñeiro at 91.7% against Karty at 78.6%, and that is a direct cover factor at a number above three. The Rams' turnover margin was built on 16 interceptions made and 8 thrown, both extremes that tend to fade, while the 49ers' 6 takeaways tend to rise. Purdy played only 9 of the 17 games in the 49ers' baseline, so the full-strength offense with McCaffrey and Kittle may be better than the blended numbers say. And the Rams' compressed trip has no recovery window if the flight goes badly. The hook over three belongs to San Francisco. I still think the early-down and pass-rush gaps are wider than three and a half points on a neutral field, and the interior losses the 49ers took this week are too fresh for the price to have fully absorbed them. Rams to win by more than a field goal.

I land on the Rams because the widest gap on this field is first and second down, and that gap decides who gets to play their kind of game. The Rams' offense last season posted a +0.19 EPA per play on early downs with a 52.3% success rate, the best split in this matchup by a distance. The 49ers' defense allowed +0.09 per play and a 49.7% success rate on those same downs, the worst split in it. San Francisco's defense earned its keep on third down last year. The Rams' offense simply did not visit third down very often, and when an offense stays on schedule against a defense that needs third down to get off the field, the drives get long and the scoreboard moves. That is the shape the Rams built in November when they scored on their first three possessions in Santa Clara.

The trench matchup points the same direction. The Rams' pass rush produced a 16.9% quarterback hit rate and a 6.6% sack rate last season, and that baseline was built without Aaron Donald and without Myles Garrett. Donald sitting tonight subtracts nothing from it. Garrett, acquired in June and cleared with no designation, adds to it. He and Byron Young line up across from a 49ers protection that allowed a 12.7% hit rate and a 4.3% sack rate last year and now starts a rookie at left guard with its interior depth on injured reserve. Trent Williams anchors the blind side, but the pressure is coming from both edges. On the other side, the 49ers' rush generated an 8.8% hit rate and a 3.3% sack rate against a Rams line that gave up a 3.9% sack rate. Bosa is back and that matters, but Stafford's protection was sound last year and the Rams' tackles are unchanged.

The fresh news this week also leans to the Rams. Alfred Collins tore a patellar tendon in Tuesday's practice and is done for the year, Sam Okuayinonu is on injured reserve after breaking his foot, and Mykel Williams is on the physically unable to perform list. That is three interior bodies gone from a 49ers defense in the last few days, and it faces a Rams run game that averaged 4.6 yards per carry and converted 66.0% of short-yardage snaps. The Rams' red-zone defense allowed a 38.1% success rate against the 49ers' 49.4%, so when the field shrinks, the Rams have the better unit on both sides.

The game-script numbers close the case. When trailing by more than a score last season, the Rams' offense posted +0.37 EPA per play. The 49ers' offense posted -0.04 in the same spot. If the Rams get ahead, the 49ers' 2025 offense did not play well from behind. If the 49ers get ahead, the Rams' offense was at its best chasing. And the Rams' defense forced 131 third-and-long situations last season and allowed a 24.4% success rate on them. The 49ers' third-and-long production, +0.42 per play on 89 snaps, is the thinnest sample in their profile and the piece most likely to come back toward the middle.

What keeps this a measured ticket rather than a heavy one: the 49ers' kicking edge is real, Piñeiro at 91.7% against Karty at 78.6%, and that is a direct cover factor at a number above three. The Rams' turnover margin was built on 16 interceptions made and 8 thrown, both extremes that tend to fade, while the 49ers' 6 takeaways tend to rise. Purdy played only 9 of the 17 games in the 49ers' baseline, so the full-strength offense with McCaffrey and Kittle may be better than the blended numbers say. And the Rams' compressed trip has no recovery window if the flight goes badly. The hook over three belongs to San Francisco. I still think the early-down and pass-rush gaps are wider than three and a half points on a neutral field, and the interior losses the 49ers took this week are too fresh for the price to have fully absorbed them. Rams to win by more than a field goal.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

MARTIN PEREZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +104

Pérez has gone over this number in six of his last eight starts, and he has issued nine walks across his last three outings. Tampa Bay’s lineup is right-handed heavy today, with seven right-handed hitters scheduled, and that group can force Pérez to work through traffic. At plus money, I’m backing another two-walk performance.

GARY'S PICK

BREWER HICKLENH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +135

Hicklen has produced at least two combined hits, runs or RBIs in five of his last 12 games and is hitting .364 with a .500 on-base percentage in his limited season sample. He gets a favorable lineup spot against Nick Martinez, whose recent home results have been uneven. The sample is small, but plus money makes the production threshold playable.

THE LONG SHOT

DRAKE BALDWINHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +500

Baldwin has already homered in this series and owns a .860 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Martinez has allowed seven home runs to right-handed hitters, and Baldwin is batting first, giving him a strong opportunity count. This is a long shot, but the matchup and price are enough for one swing.

GARY'S PICK

JEREMY PENAHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +147

Wheeler has been far tougher on right-handed hitters than lefties, and Peña is only 1-for-9 against him. Peña also enters this afternoon in a prolonged slump, hitting .115 over his last seven games. The price gives me enough room to fade the matchup and recent contact.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON MARSHHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -133

Marsh draws a right-handed starter who has allowed left-handed hitters a .277 average, and Marsh is 5-for-10 against Javier in his career. His recent numbers are quiet, but the matchup and his place in Philadelphia's lineup give him a strong chance to find one hit.

THE LONG SHOT

CHRISTIAN WALKERHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +700

Walker is the home-run swing I want at this number. He has gone deep 25 times this season, owns a 9-for-21 career line against Wheeler, and gets a favorable right-handed power environment at Citizens Bank Park. Wheeler is the better starter, but Walker's history in this matchup makes +700 worth the long-shot shot.

GARY'S PICK

COLE YOUNGH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -175

Young has already driven in two runs in this series and is 3-for-7 against Texas. He draws Jacob deGrom, whose road results remain the clear weakness in this matchup, and Seattle has been putting Young in productive spots near the bottom of the order. One hit, run, or RBI is a reasonable bar at this price.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY AROZARENAHITS OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -145

Arozarena is 10-for-15 on this market recently and has reached base consistently even while this series has been quiet for him. He has the contact quality and lineup position to see four or more trips, and deGrom's road profile gives Seattle's top half a chance to create traffic. I need one hit, and I’m willing to pay for it.

THE LONG SHOT

JAKE BURGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +450

Burger has homered twice in his last three games and already took Logan Gilbert deep in this series. Gilbert’s recent starts have been damaged by the long ball, especially against right-handed power, while Burger remains Texas’ most dangerous home-run threat in the middle innings. The price is doing enough work for me to take the swing.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW STAFFORDPASSING TDS OVER 1.5

NFLLos Angeles Rams· -146

Stafford is coming off a 46-touchdown season and cleared this number in all 10 games in the recent sample. The Rams have the receiving depth to keep pressure on San Francisco’s secondary, and Stafford remains the clear finisher in this offense. Two touchdown passes is the right side, even at the price.

THE LONG SHOT

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREYANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

NFLSan Francisco 49ers· -140

McCaffrey remains the 49ers’ most trusted player near the goal line and finished last season with 17 touchdowns. Even if the Rams focus on him, San Francisco consistently manufactures touches for him as both a runner and receiver. His workload gives him the best touchdown case on the 49ers’ side.

THE LONG SHOT

KYREN WILLIAMSANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

NFLLos Angeles Rams· -125

Williams owns the Rams’ primary scoring role and has surpassed 1,100 rushing yards in three straight seasons. Los Angeles should create opportunities for him inside the 10, particularly with Corum sharing the broader workload but not the same established finishing role. One touchdown is a fair expectation in this matchup.

GARY'S PICK

KYREN WILLIAMSRUSHING YARDS OVER 55.5

NFLLos Angeles Rams· -113

Williams topped this number in nine of his last 10 games and averaged 78 rushing yards across that stretch. The Rams should use him to keep the offense balanced after the long trip, while San Francisco’s recent defensive profile showed vulnerability to strong downhill rushing. His workload and goal-line role give him a reliable path past this number.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN MCMAHONWALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -184

McMahon has gone over this number just three times in his last 15 games, and he is facing Ryan Feltner with a lineup spot that does not guarantee a large plate-appearance total. McMahon has also drawn only 26 walks in 296 at-bats this season. At this price, I’m backing the under.

GARY'S PICK

AUSTIN WELLSH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -145

Wells has cleared this number only four times in his last 15 games and has produced just two hits, runs or RBIs across his last five. He is hitting .182 with a .581 OPS for the season, and Max Fried has been particularly effective against left-handed hitters. Batting eighth also limits his chances to pile up production. I’ll take the under.

THE LONG SHOT

LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +370

Garcia is the home-run swing I want from this board. He has 29 homers, has already gone deep in this series, and owns a .902 OPS against right-handed pitching. Ryan Feltner has allowed a .344 average and a .374 expected wOBA on his four-seam fastball, while Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch is a natural fit for Garcia’s left-handed power. The price is long, but the matchup gives him a real path to another homer.

GARY'S PICK

ONEIL CRUZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -152

Cruz is seeing the ball well in Chicago, going 4-for-9 through the first two games of this series. He also hits left-handed pitching well, carrying a .301 average against lefties. Hagen Smith has been excellent in relief, but this is his first major-league start, and Pittsburgh's best contact bat is the matchup I trust most.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON LOWEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -146

Lowe has been one of Pittsburgh's most consistent bats in this series, collecting four hits in his first eight at-bats. The recent hitless stretch is the concern, but he owns a strong season-long contact profile and will be near the top of the order against a pitcher making his first start. I’m backing his plate-appearance volume and current look at Rate Field.

THE LONG SHOT

COLSON MONTGOMERYHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +390

This is the long shot I’m willing to take. Montgomery has already hit four homers over his last 15 games, and Jared Jones has allowed five home runs across his last six starts. Montgomery has been badly quiet in this series, but his power remains the reason to take a shot at this number.

Hub research

114

FANTASY USAGEvs CLE
Trevor Lawrence
START: Start Lawrence over Murray, Stroud or Young when those are your Week 1 choices Why now: The provider projects Lawrence for 17.0 points, narrowly ahead of Murray's 16.4, Stroud's 16.2 and Young's 15.7. Lawrence also averaged 274.2 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns across his final five observed 2025 games, although that is an old baseline rather than current form. Who it fits: Managers choosing among these quarterbacks in a one-QB lineup; reception scoring does not affect the comparison. The risk: The projected advantage is small, there are no completed 2026 observations, and Lawrence is not a confirmed starter in the supplied evidence. Watch next: Check his pregame status before kickoff; any indication that his starting assignment has changed would overturn the call. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
THE SWEATSF @ LAR
THE NUMBER
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -112
FANTASY USAGEat LAC
Jeremiyah Love
START: Use Love over Montgomery or Tuten when receptions score Why now: The provider forecasts Love for 14.7 PPR and 12.8 half-PPR points, compared with 12.7 and 11.7 for Montgomery and 12.8 and 11.8 for Tuten. That edge comes from Love's projected 3.7 receptions alongside 12.9 rushing attempts, making him my preferred RB/flex of the three when catches count. Who it fits: Half-PPR or PPR managers choosing an RB2 or flex among Love, Montgomery and Tuten. The risk: Love is a rookie with no completed 2026 sample, and the supplied schedule confirms only Arizona's game—not his starting role or workload. Watch next: Check pregame role and status reports before kickoff; evidence that he will not handle the projected rushing-and-receiving workload would change the ranking. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEat CAR
Rome Odunze
START: Prefer Odunze over Pittman or Tate, with the clearest edge in standard scoring Why now: The provider projects Odunze for 8.9 standard points, ahead of Tate's 7.7 and Pittman's 7.2; the PPR estimates are nearly tied at 12.4, 12.0 and 12.3. I would therefore use Odunze as the tiebreaker, not treat the tiny PPR margin as a major separation. Who it fits: Managers choosing a receiver or flex among Odunze, Pittman and Tate, particularly in standard or half-PPR scoring. The risk: Odunze averaged only 2.6 catches and 37.6 yards in the five supplied 2025 games, and there is no completed 2026 evidence confirming improved conversion of his projected seven targets. Watch next: Check his pregame status before kickoff; after Week 1, compare actual targets and catches with the provider's projected workload. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
Mark Andrews
SIT: Sit Andrews if Warren or Goedert is available for your PPR tight-end slot Why now: The provider projects Andrews for 10.1 PPR points, below Warren's 12.2 and Goedert's 10.9. That ordering matters because Andrews' last five observed 2025 games produced only 2.2 catches and 18 yards per game with no receiving touchdowns. Who it fits: PPR managers who can start Tyler Warren, Dallas Goedert or a comparable alternative at tight end. The risk: The same forecast gives Andrews 0.42 receiving touchdowns, so touchdown variance could erase the projected gap despite his weak prior-season finish. Watch next: Check pregame status and role reports before kickoff; a concrete indication of expanded receiving involvement would justify revisiting the sit. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEvs MIA
Michael Mayer
CONSIDER ADD: If available, Mayer is the best PPR tight-end add among the lower-rostered options here Why now: The provider forecasts Mayer for 9.3 PPR points, ahead of Schultz's 8.4 and Sadiq's 5.1. Mayer's final two observed 2025 games averaged six catches on 7.5 targets, a promising but dated finish that supports giving him the first audition. Who it fits: Managers needing a PPR or half-PPR tight-end streamer or bench option, conditional on Mayer actually being available in their league. The risk: There are no completed 2026 observations, his starting role is unconfirmed, and the late-2025 increase does not establish his current usage. Watch next: Check pregame role news, then evaluate his actual Week 1 targets and receptions before treating the projected workload as established. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Devaughn Vele
CONSIDER ADD: Favor Vele over Tucker for a longer PPR bench audition, not for the stronger Week 1 projection Why now: Vele averaged four catches, 5.8 targets and 50.8 yards over the five supplied 2025 games; Tucker averaged 2.6 catches, five targets and 29.2 yards. That observed baseline makes Vele my preferred bench test, although the current provider forecast favors Tucker 10.0 to 9.3 in PPR for Week 1. Who it fits: Deep PPR managers seeking receiver depth, provided Vele is actually available and the roster can absorb a patient bench evaluation. The risk: The comparison relies partly on old five-game samples, and Vele has no completed 2026 evidence confirming the same role. Watch next: Compare Vele's and Tucker's actual Week 1 targets, receptions and receiving yards before deciding whether the historical advantage remains relevant. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs CLE
Bhayshul Tuten
HOLD: Give Tuten one game to reveal his role before reassessing the roster spot Why now: Tuten averaged only 4.6 rushing attempts in the five supplied 2025 games, but the Week 1 provider forecast jumps to 15 attempts and 2.9 receiving targets. That conflict is a reason for patience: the first 2026 game can show whether the projected workload reflects a real change. Who it fits: Managers who already roster Tuten and can wait through one game for evidence about his rushing and receiving involvement. The risk: The forecast is only an estimate, Tuten is not a confirmed starter, and no completed 2026 performance supports the projected increase yet. Watch next: After Week 1, check his actual rushing attempts and receiving targets; those observations should carry more weight than either the old baseline or preseason projection. Evidence as of Sep 10, 11:00 PM ET.
REPLACEMENTSF @ LAR
Aaron Donald (DT) is out for LAR
Head coach Sean McVay said that Donald won't travel to Melbourne, Australia and will be inactive Thursday for the Rams' season opener versus the 49ers, Stu Jackson of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 8.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
TEAM RECORDPIT @ CHW
Pirates 1-7 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts
Pittsburgh is 1-7 in Jared Jones’s last eight starts this season. Jones starts tonight at the White Sox.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ PHI
Astros 1-7 in Cristian Javier's last 8 starts
Houston is 1-7 in Cristian Javier’s last eight starts this season. Javier starts tonight at Philadelphia.
THE SWEATSF @ LAR
BALL SECURITY
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -112
THE SWEATSF @ LAR
GROUND
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -112
THE SWEATSF @ LAR
AIR
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -112
REPLACEMENTSF @ LAR
Matthew Caldwell (QB) is on injured reserve for LAR
The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Aug 29.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
TEAM RECORDTB @ ATL
Rays 6-2 in Nick Martinez's last 8 starts
Tampa Bay is 6-2 in Nick Martinez’s last eight starts this season, with team wins in the last three. Martinez starts tonight at Atlanta.
HEAT CHECKTEX @ SEA
Cal Raleigh: 1.141 OPS in Last 15 Days
Cal Raleigh has a 1.141 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 at-bats. That is 0.469 above his .672 season mark.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Alfred Collins
Knee · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side won; final 27-7
HEAD-TO-HEADTEX @ SEA
Rangers are 8-4 vs Mariners this season
Texas is 8-4 against Seattle through 12 meetings this season, though Seattle won the latest game 3-2. The results do not identify the pitchers, venues or how Texas built its series lead.
TEAM RECORDCOL @ NYY
Rockies 2-6 in Ryan Feltner's last 8 starts
Colorado is 2-6 in Ryan Feltner’s last eight starts this season, with team losses in the last three. Feltner starts tonight at the Yankees.
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Aaron Donald
Not injury related - resting player · Did not practice · Out
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper bats third tonight against Houston RHP Cristian Javier. Harper has a 1.016 OPS in 314 AB vs. RHP, well above his .675 OPS in 195 AB vs. LHP.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COOLING OFFTB @ ATL
Matt Olson: .483 OPS in Last 15 Days
Matt Olson has a .483 OPS over the last 15 days in 54 at-bats. That is 0.346 below his .829 season mark.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ SEA
Julio Rodriguez: .375 OPS in Last 15 Days
Julio Rodriguez has a .375 OPS over the last 15 days in 55 at-bats. That is 0.313 below his .688 season mark.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
COOLING OFFPIT @ CHW
Munetaka Murakami: .459 OPS in Last 15 Days
Munetaka Murakami has a .459 OPS over the last 15 days in 48 at-bats. That is 0.362 below his .821 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ NYY
TJ Rumfield: 1.243 OPS in Last 15 Days
TJ Rumfield has a 1.243 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 at-bats. That is 0.393 above his .850 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTSF @ LAR
James Thompson Jr. (DT) is questionable for SF
questionable Reported Sep 8.
P Edge side won; final 27-7
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ PHI
Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Yordan Alvarez bats second tonight against Philadelphia RHP Zack Wheeler. Alvarez has a 1.093 OPS in 367 AB vs. RHP, compared with .835 in 147 AB vs. LHP.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFCOL @ NYY
Mickey Moniak: .428 OPS in Last 15 Days
Mickey Moniak has a .428 OPS over the last 15 days in 44 at-bats. That is 0.355 below his .783 season mark.
PLATOON EDGETEX @ SEA
Joc Pederson (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Joc Pederson has an .828 OPS in 332 AB vs. RHP, compared with .616 in 31 AB vs. LHP. The left-handed hitter leads off tonight against RHP Logan Gilbert.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
James Thompson Jr.
Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
P Edge side won; final 27-7
STARTER FORMTEX @ SEA
Logan Gilbert: 7.36 ERA over his last 3 starts
Logan Gilbert has allowed 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings across his last three starts, producing a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He entered TEX at SEA with a 3.71 season ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
P 7 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
PLATOON EDGETEX @ SEA
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Evan Carter has a .678 OPS in 294 AB vs. RHP, compared with .328 in 61 AB vs. LHP. The left-handed hitter bats sixth tonight against RHP Logan Gilbert.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKPIT @ CHW
Tristan Peters: 1.137 OPS in Last 15 Days
Tristan Peters has a 1.137 OPS over the last 15 days in 42 at-bats. That is a 0.321 swing from his .816 season baseline.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMHOU @ PHI
Christian Walker vs Zack Wheeler: .385
Christian Walker is 10-for-26 (.385) with one home run in 26 career at-bats against Zack Wheeler. They meet again tonight, with Walker carrying a .599 OPS over his last 15 games.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ SEA
Taylor Ward: .218 OPS in Last 15 Days
Taylor Ward has a .218 OPS over the last 15 days in 30 at-bats. That is 0.454 below his .672 season mark.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKTB @ ATL
Sean Murphy: 1.118 OPS in Last 15 Days
Sean Murphy has a 1.118 OPS over the last 15 days in 29 at-bats. That is 0.465 above his .653 season mark.
COOLING OFFPIT @ CHW
Spencer Horwitz: .465 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Hagen Smith
Spencer Horwitz's .465 OPS over the last 15 days (45 AB) trails his .714 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws LHP Hagen Smith — his weaker side: a .571 OPS vs LHP across 68 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTSF @ LAR
Ricky Pearsall (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
Knee - PCL
P Edge side won; final 27-7
STARTER FORMCOL @ NYY
Ryan Feltner: 9.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Feltner has allowed 16 earned runs and 21 hits in 15.2 innings over his last three starts. His 9.19 ERA in that span is 3.29 above his 5.91 season ERA entering COL at NYY.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
COOLING OFFHOU @ PHI
Yordan Alvarez: .767 OPS in Last 15 Days
Yordan Alvarez has a .767 OPS over the last 15 days in 51 at-bats. That is 0.255 below his 1.022 season mark.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Luis Garcia Jr. has a .902 OPS in 387 AB vs. RHP, compared with .652 in 78 AB vs. LHP. The left-handed hitter bats fourth tonight against RHP Ryan Feltner.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKTB @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.049 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 1.049 OPS over the last 15 days in 50 at-bats. That is 0.26 above his .789 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKHOU @ PHI
Yainer Diaz: 1.061 OPS in Last 15 Days
Yainer Diaz has a 1.061 OPS over the last 15 days in 36 at-bats. That is up 0.339 from his .722 season mark.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ ATL
Dominic Smith (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Dominic Smith has a .729 OPS in 229 AB vs. RHP, compared with .451 in 31 AB vs. LHP. The left-handed hitter bats sixth tonight against RHP Nick Martinez.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ CHW
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Jared Jones (RHP)
Sam Antonacci has a .794 OPS in 342 AB vs. RHP, compared with .614 in 84 AB the other way. The left-handed hitter leads off tonight against RHP Jared Jones.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HR THREATRangers @ Mariners
Jake Burger
Gary's Take Burger has homered twice in his last three games and already took Logan Gilbert deep in this series. Gilbert’s recent starts have been damaged by the long ball, especially against right-handed power, while Burger remains Texas’ most dangerous home-run threat in the middle innings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
NEXT SLATENCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 11
BDL lists 2 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 2 kickoff times are confirmed.
HR THREATAstros @ Phillies
Christian Walker
Gary's Take Walker is the home-run swing I want at this number. He has gone deep 25 times this season, owns a 9-for-21 career line against Wheeler, and gets a favorable right-handed power environment at Citizens Bank Park.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
MISMATCHSF @ LAR
SF on the money downs — 49.8% on third down to LAR's 39.6% (2025 season)
SF converted 49.8% of third downs in 17 games during the 2025 regular season, while LAR converted 39.6% over 17 games. That is the widest supplied matchup gap, though the facts do not show how either side created or defended those situations.
P Edge side won; final 27-7
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ ATL
Rays are 2-0 vs Braves this season
Tampa Bay is 2-0 against Atlanta across two meetings this season, most recently winning 7-2. With no pitching or venue breakdown, those two results offer little context for tonight.
COOLING OFFPIT @ CHW
Esmerlyn Valdez: .464 OPS in Last 15 Days
Esmerlyn Valdez has a .464 OPS over the last 15 days in 31 at-bats. That is 0.385 below his .849 season mark.
PLATOON EDGETB @ ATL
Drake Baldwin (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Drake Baldwin leads off tonight against Tampa Bay RHP Nick Martinez. Baldwin has an .860 OPS in 300 AB vs. RHP, well above his .695 OPS in 182 AB vs. LHP.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ NYY
Yankees are 2-0 vs Rockies this season
The Yankees are 2-0 against Colorado across two meetings this season, including a 6-1 win in the latest game. The results do not show whether pitching, venue or another repeatable factor shaped them.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ CHW
Pirates are 2-0 vs White Sox this season
Pittsburgh is 2-0 against the White Sox across two meetings this season, most recently winning 4-2. Without the pitchers, venues or paths to those wins, the small series offers limited context for tonight.
HR THREATRays @ Braves
Drake Baldwin
Gary's Take Baldwin has already homered in this series and owns a .860 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Martinez has allowed seven home runs to right-handed hitters, and Baldwin is batting first, giving him a strong opportunity count.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ SEA
Josh Naylor: .505 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jacob deGrom
Josh Naylor has a .505 OPS over the last 15 days in 49 AB, below his .685 season mark. He faces RHP Jacob deGrom tonight and has a .669 OPS vs. RHP across 354 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
SITUATIONALSF @ LAR
SF converts third downs at a +10.2% clip (2025 season)
SF converted 49.8% of third downs over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, 10.2 percentage points above LAR’s 39.6%. That makes possession-extension the clearest measured contrast, but neither club has a 2026 final yet.
P Edge side won; final 27-7
COOLING OFFHOU @ PHI
Luis Arraez: .563 OPS in Last 15 Days
Luis Arraez has a .563 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 at-bats. That is 0.213 below his .776 season mark.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTB @ ATL
Jonny DeLuca: .496 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Martin Perez
Jonny DeLuca has a .496 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 AB, down 0.209 from his .705 season mark. He draws LHP Martin Perez and has a .671 OPS vs. LHP across 123 AB.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKTEX @ SEA
Justin Foscue: 1.127 OPS in Last 15 Days
Justin Foscue has a 1.127 OPS over the last 15 days in 33 at-bats. That is 0.289 above his .838 season mark.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
STARTER FORMHOU @ PHI
Zack Wheeler: 5.63 ERA over his last 3 starts
Zack Wheeler has a 5.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over 16 innings in his last three starts. He entered HOU at PHI with a 3.23 season ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
TRENCHESSF @ LAR
LAR gets +0.88 more yards a carry (2025 season)
LAR averaged 4.69 yards per rush attempt over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, 0.88 more than SF’s 3.81. That gap distinguishes the teams’ rushing efficiency, though neither has a 2026 final yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
HEAT CHECKTEX @ SEA
Danny Jansen: .988 OPS in Last 15 Days
Danny Jansen has a .988 OPS over the last 15 days in 25 AB. That is up 0.371 from his .617 season mark.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ ATL
Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .259 xBA
Chandler Simpson is batting .309 against a .259 xBA over 557 plate appearances, with a .308 wOBA versus a .263 xwOBA. His results have run ahead of his contact quality entering TB @ ATL, but no matchup-specific comparison shows whether that gap will narrow tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFCOL @ NYY
George Lombard Jr.: .459 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Feltner
George Lombard Jr. has a .459 OPS over the last 15 days in 33 AB, below his .674 season mark. He faces RHP Ryan Feltner tonight and has a .632 OPS vs. RHP across 77 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
QUARTERBACKSF @ LAR
Brock Purdy starts at quarterback for SF
Purdy's 2025 season line: 2167 passing yards, 69.4% completions, 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 TD-INT over 9 games.
P Edge side won; final 27-7
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSSF @ LAR
LAR owns a +0.65 yards-per-play gap (2025 season)
LAR averaged 6.15 yards per play over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, holding a 0.65-yard gap over SF’s 5.49. That separates their overall offensive efficiency, though neither club has a 2026 final yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
BATTER VS ARMTEX @ SEA
Julio Rodriguez vs Jacob deGrom: .455
Julio Rodriguez is 5-for-11 (.455) with one HR in 11 career at-bats against Jacob deGrom. They meet tonight in TEX at SEA, with Rodriguez carrying a .375 OPS over his last 15 games.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
QUARTERBACKSF @ LAR
Matthew Stafford starts at quarterback for LAR
Stafford's 2025 season line: 4707 passing yards, 65% completions, 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 TD-INT over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PACE & SCRIPTSF @ LAR
LAR is scoring +4.8 points per game (2025 season)
SF is at 25.7 points per game over 17 games; LAR is at 30.5 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
BATTER VS ARMTEX @ SEA
Logan Gilbert vs Evan Carter: 1-for-12, 7 K
Evan Carter is 1-for-12 (.083) with seven strikeouts in 12 career at-bats against Logan Gilbert. They meet again tonight in TEX at SEA; no recent-form comparison was supplied.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTTB @ ATL
Jonny DeLuca (.671 vs LHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Jonny DeLuca draws LHP Martin Perez from the 4th spot. He carries a .671 OPS vs LHP (123 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .705 season line. On the injury report for 15 days (Groin).
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTHOU @ PHI
Bryce Harper (1.016 vs RHP) replaces Adolis Garcia at RF tonight
Bryce Harper inherits RF from Adolis Garcia and bats third tonight against RHP Cristian Javier. Harper has a 1.016 OPS vs. RHP in 314 AB, compared with his .884 season OPS.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTHOU @ PHI
Jeremy Pena (.807 vs RHP) replaces Carlos Correa at SS tonight
Jeremy Pena inherits SS from Carlos Correa and bats first tonight against RHP Zack Wheeler. Pena has an .807 OPS vs. RHP in 296 AB, compared with his .781 season OPS.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTTEX @ SEA
Evan Carter (.678 vs RHP) replaces Michael Helman at CF tonight
Evan Carter, listed on the injury report for 83 days with a hand issue, replaces Michael Helman in CF and bats sixth tonight against RHP Logan Gilbert. Carter has a .678 OPS vs. RHP in 294 AB, compared with his .616 season OPS.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on the 60-day IL with a rib injury, carrying a 3.18 ERA and a listed return date of September 11. That date is a roster listing, not a promise. I’d stash him only in a deep league with an open IL spot; otherwise, watch. DEEP-LEAGUE IL STASH
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/11
Jake Fraley
Listed back 9/11 (60-Day-IL, groin) — 0.690 OPS this season.
STARTER FORMHOU @ PHI
Cristian Javier: 4.15 ERA over his last 3 starts
Cristian Javier has allowed six earned runs in 13 innings across his last three starts, producing a 4.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He entered HOU at PHI with a 5.98 season ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/11
Lucas Giolito
Listed back 9/11 (60-Day-IL, elbow) — 5.16 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/11
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury, with a 4.97 ERA and a listed return date of September 11. That date is a roster listing, not a promise. I’m not using a season-long stash spot here unless the league is exceptionally deep. DO NOT STASH
HEAT CHECKTB @ ATL
Ha-Seong Kim: .599 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ha-Seong Kim has a .599 OPS over the last 15 days in 24 AB. That represents a 0.281 increase from his .318 season OPS.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
TRENCHESSF @ LAR
LAR is +19.7 rush yards per game (2025 season)
LAR averaged 126.6 rushing yards per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, 19.7 more than SF’s 106.9. The gap points to a larger rushing output in that sample, but neither club has a 2026 final yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Dre Greenlaw
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
REGRESSIONCOL @ NYY
TJ Rumfield: .297 AVG vs .261 xBA
TJ Rumfield has a .297 average versus a .261 xBA over 573 plate appearances, while his .374 wOBA exceeds his .335 xwOBA. His results have run ahead of the contact-quality marks entering COL at NYY, but the data does not establish tonight’s direction.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Kyle Juszczyk
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
George Kittle
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Nick Bosa
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Romello Height
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
TURNOVERSSF @ LAR
LAR commits 0.41 fewer turnovers per game (2025 season)
LAR committed 0.88 turnovers per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, 0.41 fewer than SF’s 1.29. Ball security separated their offensive profiles in that sample, but neither club has a 2026 final yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Renardo Green
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Gracen Halton
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
TURNOVERSSF @ LAR
LAR throws 0.47 fewer picks per game (2025 season)
LAR threw 0.47 interceptions per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, 0.47 fewer than SF’s 0.94. That gives LAR the cleaner passing-possession profile in the sample; neither club has a 2026 final yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Luke Gifford
Limited practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
HEAT CHECKPIT @ CHW
Bryan Reynolds: .937 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bryan Reynolds has a .937 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 at-bats. That is up 0.132 from his .805 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
AFTER GARYSF @ LAR
LAR -3.5 → -3.5
FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
QUARTERBACKSF @ LAR
LAR's passing game is +23.5 yards per game (2025 season)
SF is at 244.5 team passing yards per game over 17 games; LAR is at 268.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
STARTER FORMTEX @ SEA
Jacob deGrom: 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jacob deGrom has allowed 10 earned runs in 16.2 innings across his last three starts, producing a 5.40 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His season marks entering TEX at SEA are a 3.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
RUNNING GAMETB @ ATL
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 14%
Tampa Bay attempts 1.4 steals per game, while Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin has thrown out 7 of 51 runners for a 14% caught-stealing rate this season. The figures describe the matchup but do not establish how tonight’s runs will score.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGCOL @ NYY
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of COL @ NYY
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 3 of 10 sampled NYY games and 3 of 10 sampled COL games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Max Fried: 3.71 ERA, .220 opponent AVG across 17.0 IP, 1 HR; Ryan Feltner: 5.14 ERA, .275 opponent AVG across 21.0 IP, 5 HR.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
REGRESSIONTB @ ATL
Jonny DeLuca: .258 AVG vs .234 xBA
Jonny DeLuca is batting .258 against a .234 xBA over 316 plate appearances, while his .307 wOBA tops his .265 xwOBA. Both expected marks trail his results entering TB @ ATL, but no matchup-specific comparison establishes which way the gap will move tonight.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTPIT @ CHW
Chase Meidroth (.671 vs RHP) replaces Tanner Murray at 2B tonight
Chase Meidroth, listed on the injury report for 125 days with a shoulder issue, replaces Tanner Murray at 2B and bats seventh tonight against RHP Jared Jones. His .671 OPS vs. RHP in 374 AB is below his .734 season OPS.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONHOU @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
Philadelphia Phillies are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 57-50 in their other 107 completed games.
RUNNING GAMETEX @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Danny Jansen has caught just 15%
Danny Jansen has a 15% caught-stealing rate this season, throwing out six of 40 runners. Seattle attempts 0.9 steals per game.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
HEAD-TO-HEADSF @ LAR
SF and LAR are even since 2025
SF and LAR are 1-1 across the last two seasons. SF won 26-23 at LAR on Oct. 2, 2025, before LAR answered with a more one-sided 42-26 win at SF on Nov. 9, 2025.
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
HEAD-TO-HEADHOU @ PHI
Phillies and Astros are square at 1-1 this season
Philadelphia and Houston are 1-1 across two meetings this season, with the Phillies winning the latest game 11-7. The split shows no season-series edge, and no pitching or venue breakdown connects it to tonight.
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Myles Garrett
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Grant Stuard
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Tyler Higbee
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Byron Young
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Jaylen Watson
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Upton Stout
Full practice
P Edge side won; final 27-7
PRACTICE REPORTSF @ LAR
Alaric Jackson
Full practice
P Edge side lost; final 27-7
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/18
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and a listed return date of September 18. There’s no season line available, and that date is a roster listing, not a promise. I’d keep him on the watchlist rather than commit a stash spot. WATCHLIST

Graded results

Games

L
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -112
NFL · 27-7
L
Phillies -1.5 +108
MLB · 2-1
L
Rays ML -102
MLB · 1-3
L
Rangers ML +108
MLB · 3-4
W
Pirates ML -108
MLB · 2-0
W
Yankees -1.5 -122
MLB · 3-10

Props

L
Austin Wells · under
Rockies @ Yankees · Actual 2
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Brandon Marsh · over
Astros @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Brewer Hicklen · over
Rays @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Christian McCaffrey · over
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Actual 0
L
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Cole Young · over
Rangers @ Mariners · Actual 1
L
Colson Montgomery · over
Pirates @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Rays @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Jake Burger · over
Rangers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Jeremy Pena · under
Astros @ Phillies · Actual 1
L
Kyren Williams · over
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Actual 41
W
Kyren Williams · over
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Actual 1
W
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Rockies @ Yankees · Actual 1
W
Martin Perez · over
Rays @ Braves · Actual 2
L
Matthew Stafford · over
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Actual 0
W
Oneil Cruz · over
Pirates @ White Sox · Actual 3
L
Randy Arozarena · over
Rangers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Ryan McMahon · under
Rockies @ Yankees · Actual 1

Sports picks for Thursday, September 10, 2026

Game picks

Rays
Moneyline

Phillies
-1.5

Rangers
Moneyline

Yankees
-1.5

Pirates
Moneyline

Rams
-3.5

Player props

Martin Perez
Pitcher Walks over 1.5

Brewer Hicklen
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Drake Baldwin
HR over 0.5

Jeremy Pena
Hits under 0.5

Brandon Marsh
Hits over 0.5

Christian Walker
HR over 0.5

Cole Young
H+R+RBI over 0.5

Randy Arozarena
Hits over 0.5

Jake Burger
HR over 0.5

Matthew Stafford
Passing Tds over 1.5

Christian McCaffrey
Anytime TD over 0.5

Kyren Williams
Anytime TD over 0.5

Kyren Williams
Rushing Yards over 55.5

Ryan McMahon
Walks under 0.5

Austin Wells
H+R+RBI under 1.5

Luis Garcia Jr.
HR over 0.5

Oneil Cruz
Hits over 0.5

Brandon Lowe
Hits over 0.5

Colson Montgomery
HR over 0.5

Hub research

Graded results

Games

Props