Sports picks for Friday, September 11, 2026

250 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· -126

Chicago has the starting-pitching advantage, but I’m backing Pittsburgh to stay within the run line. Imanaga threw six scoreless innings in each of his two starts against the Pirates this season, yet the Cubs went 1-1 in those games. That captures the distinction here: a strong outing from Chicago’s starter does not necessarily produce the separation this ticket needs to lose. The Cubs’ offense makes that separation harder to trust. Today’s starting nine hit .229 over the last seven days. Their last-10 scoring average of 5.5 runs per game also includes a 17-run outburst; outside that game, they averaged 4.2. Pittsburgh’s pitching has been the stronger part of its recent run, with its bullpen posting a 2.35 ERA over the last seven days. Chicago’s late innings offer Pittsburgh another route to stay close: Webb surrendered a tying homer while protecting a ninth-inning lead against Milwaukee, and Zeferjahn allowed both inherited runners to score in the preceding game. The biggest risk is Pittsburgh’s pitching arrangement. Dotel is making his first MLB start, and Montgomery and Weaver have pitched on consecutive days. I’m not assuming another appearance from either. But Soto, Mlodzinski and Ramírez did not pitch yesterday, giving Pittsburgh alternatives behind Dotel. His .539 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is encouraging against Chicago’s left-handed and switch-hitting bats, although that rests on just 65 at-bats. Imanaga can control this matchup again, but his 4.23 home ERA and uneven recent starts leave room for Pittsburgh to score. With Chicago’s lineup struggling collectively and its late leads proving vulnerable, the extra run is the deciding factor. This is a measured play, not a bet that Pittsburgh’s winning streak simply continues.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· +132

The late innings are what put me on Los Angeles at this price. The Angels’ bullpen has allowed three earned runs in 15 innings over the last seven days; Washington’s has allowed 18 in 21 innings. Both teams had Thursday off, so this is primarily a question of execution. Washington has repeatedly handed away leads, and backing the Nationals requires trusting more than their starting pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi gives the Angels a credible route to reaching that bullpen matchup with the game competitive. His last two starts went seven innings with two earned runs and six innings without an earned run. His fastball’s xwOBA allowed has improved across his three starts since returning. That does not erase his uneven season, but it gives me a reason to take his recent improvement seriously. Cade Cavalli is the biggest threat to this bet. His breaking balls and strong results against right-handed hitters make this difficult for the Angels’ lineup. Washington also has favorable lefty splits from Brady House and Dylan Crews against Kikuchi. Those advantages keep my conviction modest. I’m backing Los Angeles because Kikuchi’s recent work makes the starting matchup more competitive than the season ERAs suggest, while the Angels have been considerably more dependable in relief. At +132, that combination is enough for me to take the underdog.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· +102

The pitching advantage gives Boston a credible path to covering. Sonny Gray brings a 2.69 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and his latest start was seven scoreless innings. Seth Lugo has a 6.19 road ERA and has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three starts. His trouble extends beyond that short stretch: left-handed hitters have batted .303 with an .844 OPS against him this season. That creates an opening for Boston despite its recent offensive struggles. Mickey Gasper has a .964 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Adley Rutschman has a .789 OPS. Lugo’s sinker has allowed a .421 xwOBA and his four-seamer a .414 mark, giving me reason to expect opportunities beyond simply hoping Boston’s bats rebound. Boston also has the stronger bullpen to protect a lead. Garrett Whitlock owns a 1.88 ERA, Aroldis Chapman a 2.03 ERA, and Erik Miller a 2.15 ERA. None pitched in Boston’s last two games, and Thursday provided another day off. Kansas City also benefited from that off-day, so my edge here is Boston’s relief quality rather than assuming the Royals are exhausted. The hesitation is Boston’s offense: 3.6 runs per game over its last five makes the extra run a real hurdle. Carter Jensen’s recent power also gives Kansas City a threat against Gray. Still, Lugo’s contact vulnerability, Boston’s favorable hitting matchups, and its stronger late relief make laying the run and a half at +102 my bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· +118

Detroit’s route to separation runs through Colorado’s bullpen. Mason Adams has worked 4.0, 5.0 and 4.2 innings in his three major-league starts, leaving substantial innings behind him. Colorado’s relievers have allowed 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings over the last five days, and Zach Agnos threw 45 pitches yesterday. Adams can pitch competitively and still leave Detroit opportunities to extend a lead. Framber Valdez gives Detroit a stronger foundation for covering those innings. He has allowed six earned runs across his last three starts, totaling 19.0 innings, and completed seven scoreless innings last time out. Behind him, Detroit’s bullpen delivered 12.0 innings without an earned run against Minnesota before Thursday’s off day. That combination supports both building a lead and protecting it. The matchup also suits important Detroit bats. Riley Greene owns a .855 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Kevin McGonigle sits at .853. Adams has allowed four homers in 13.2 innings and a 61.1% hard-hit rate across 36 batted balls. His sample is small, but those contact results give Detroit an opening alongside the later bullpen matchup. The concern is separation: Comerica’s home-run suppression and the wind blowing in could help Adams, who has struck out 17 hitters, keep this close. Valdez’s 4.33 home ERA also argues against expecting another scoreless outing. I’m backing Detroit at +118 because its pitching depth and opportunities against Colorado’s relief staff give it a credible path to covering, even without an early offensive breakout.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Boston College Eagles· -122

Friday night in Chestnut Hill, red bandannas in the stands on the 25th anniversary of September 11, and two 0-1 teams whose coaches spent the week taking the blame. Boston College is home, Rutgers is a short bus ride down from New Jersey, and the number sits on the wrong side of a field goal. I am taking the points, and the first reason is the turnover count. Rutgers lost the opener with a minus-four margin, and every giveaway came from Dylan Lonergan, three interceptions and a lost fumble that UMass turned into 17 points. Lonergan is not starting tonight. AJ Surace is, and his relief sample was small but clean: 6 of 9 for 77 yards and an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. Four turnovers is the single noisiest stat in football, and Rutgers does not have to be good tonight, it only has to stop handing over the ball. Boston College forced nothing at Cincinnati and its secondary registered zero passes defended. The second reason is where each defense is broken. Boston College gave up 254 rushing yards at 5.5 a carry, and its own coordinator counted 126 yards after missed tackles, on a unit with only four players who had more than six career starts. It ranked 117th nationally in points allowed per scoring opportunity and 81st in explosiveness allowed. Rutgers' offense, for all its problems up front, ranked 10th in explosiveness, and KJ Duff is the best player on either roster, a 6-foot-6 receiver coming off 9 catches, 196 yards and three touchdowns including a 78-yarder. Antwan Raymond ran for 1,241 yards last season and was held to 42 on 14 carries by UMass. A run defense that could not tackle Cincinnati is the softest possible place to get him going again. Rutgers' defense is also bad, 126th in success rate allowed, and a mobile quarterback like Mason McKenzie is exactly what hurt it. That is the real risk here. But Rutgers ranked 32nd in explosiveness allowed, which means Boston College has to string together long drives with an offense that sat 95th in success rate and went scoreless for 41 minutes despite 388 yards and 24 first downs. Boston College moved the ball at Cincinnati and could not cash it: a missed 35-yard field goal, four false starts, a muffed punt, three burned first-half timeouts. That profile keeps games inside a field goal, and inside a field goal is what plus-3.5 pays for. The market agrees the number is uncomfortable. The line was first seen at Boston College minus 3 and the book will only hold minus 3.5 at even money. One power rating has Rutgers the better team on a neutral field, the other has Boston College, and Rutgers brings two extra days of rest. I do not need Rutgers to win. I need a first-time starter to protect the ball against a defense that has not shown it can take it away, and a run game to find lanes against a front that could not find the ball carrier last week. Give me the points.

I am taking the points, and the first reason is the turnover count. Rutgers lost the opener with a minus-four margin, and every giveaway came from Dylan Lonergan, three interceptions and a lost fumble that UMass turned into 17 points. Lonergan is not starting tonight. AJ Surace is, and his relief sample was small but clean: 6 of 9 for 77 yards and an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. Four turnovers is the single noisiest stat in football, and Rutgers does not have to be good tonight, it only has to stop handing over the ball. Boston College forced nothing at Cincinnati and its secondary registered zero passes defended.

The second reason is where each defense is broken. Boston College gave up 254 rushing yards at 5.5 a carry, and its own coordinator counted 126 yards after missed tackles, on a unit with only four players who had more than six career starts. It ranked 117th nationally in points allowed per scoring opportunity and 81st in explosiveness allowed. Rutgers' offense, for all its problems up front, ranked 10th in explosiveness, and KJ Duff is the best player on either roster, a 6-foot-6 receiver coming off 9 catches, 196 yards and three touchdowns including a 78-yarder. Antwan Raymond ran for 1,241 yards last season and was held to 42 on 14 carries by UMass. A run defense that could not tackle Cincinnati is the softest possible place to get him going again.

Rutgers' defense is also bad, 126th in success rate allowed, and a mobile quarterback like Mason McKenzie is exactly what hurt it. That is the real risk here. But Rutgers ranked 32nd in explosiveness allowed, which means Boston College has to string together long drives with an offense that sat 95th in success rate and went scoreless for 41 minutes despite 388 yards and 24 first downs. Boston College moved the ball at Cincinnati and could not cash it: a missed 35-yard field goal, four false starts, a muffed punt, three burned first-half timeouts. That profile keeps games inside a field goal, and inside a field goal is what plus-3.5 pays for.

The market agrees the number is uncomfortable. The line was first seen at Boston College minus 3 and the book will only hold minus 3.5 at even money. One power rating has Rutgers the better team on a neutral field, the other has Boston College, and Rutgers brings two extra days of rest. I do not need Rutgers to win. I need a first-time starter to protect the ball against a defense that has not shown it can take it away, and a run game to find lanes against a front that could not find the ball carrier last week. Give me the points.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Missouri Tigers· -110

Friday night in Lawrence, FOX cameras, and the Border War back on Kansas soil for the first time since 2005. Two new starting quarterbacks, two blowouts of FCS teams in the rearview, and a ranked Missouri side walking into the loudest building it will see before SEC play. The number says Missouri by a field goal and change. I'm taking the points, and the first reason is the price itself. The opponent-adjusted systems have this closer than the market does. SP+ rates Missouri 12.90 and Kansas 7.50, a gap of 5.4 points on a neutral field, and it calls the offenses even at 36th and 38th. FPI's gap is 6.2. This game is not on a neutral field. Kansas is at home, and a road favorite laying 4.5 here implies the market is grading Missouri above what either system supports, or crediting Lawrence with almost nothing. The line has already drifted from 5.5 at the opening book to 4.5 now, and I think the drift has further to go. The second reason is the matchup at the line of scrimmage, where the only 2026 evidence leans the home side. Kansas's rebuilt front was stuffed on 2.0 percent of its carries in the opener and Isaiah Marshall added 49 rushing yards on seven carries to his 14-of-19, 246-yard passing debut. Missouri's pass rush was the flagged concern coming out of its opener, one sack and six tackles for loss with front-seven havoc at 0.15. A mobile quarterback behind a line that stayed on schedule, against a front that has not yet shown it can get home, is a recipe for sustained drives. Flip it around and Kansas's defense generated eleven tackles for loss and three sacks with a 36.7 percent stuff rate, and it draws a Missouri ground game that lost another back to a season-ending injury this week and got 13 carries for 47 yards from Jamal Roberts in the opener. Eli Drinkwitz said out loud that he does not feel great about that room. If Kansas makes Missouri throw to move the ball, it is Austin Simmons in his second start, on the road, against a front that has already shown teeth. The obstacle is real and I am not hiding from it. Missouri's defense is the reason it is favored, ranked 21st in SP+ against a Kansas offense with five new linemen and a quarterback who had not played a full game in three years before last week. Simmons was 17-of-19 for 252 and four scores, and All-American tackle Cayden Green is trending back into the lineup, which makes Missouri's line better than anything its opener showed. Missouri also erased three deficits in Columbia last year and won by eleven. That is a legitimate path to a cover, and it is why this is a lean, not a pound. But last year's game also had Kansas up 21-6 and holding a lead in the fourth quarter on the road. Tonight the venue flips, the Missouri backfield is thinner, and the number gives the home team a full field goal and a hook against a spread the ratings do not fully support. In a rivalry game between two second-start quarterbacks, I want the side with the mobile passer, the front that got into the backfield, the crowd, and the points.

I'm taking the points, and the first reason is the price itself. The opponent-adjusted systems have this closer than the market does. SP+ rates Missouri 12.90 and Kansas 7.50, a gap of 5.4 points on a neutral field, and it calls the offenses even at 36th and 38th. FPI's gap is 6.2. This game is not on a neutral field. Kansas is at home, and a road favorite laying 4.5 here implies the market is grading Missouri above what either system supports, or crediting Lawrence with almost nothing. The line has already drifted from 5.5 at the opening book to 4.5 now, and I think the drift has further to go.

The second reason is the matchup at the line of scrimmage, where the only 2026 evidence leans the home side. Kansas's rebuilt front was stuffed on 2.0 percent of its carries in the opener and Isaiah Marshall added 49 rushing yards on seven carries to his 14-of-19, 246-yard passing debut. Missouri's pass rush was the flagged concern coming out of its opener, one sack and six tackles for loss with front-seven havoc at 0.15. A mobile quarterback behind a line that stayed on schedule, against a front that has not yet shown it can get home, is a recipe for sustained drives. Flip it around and Kansas's defense generated eleven tackles for loss and three sacks with a 36.7 percent stuff rate, and it draws a Missouri ground game that lost another back to a season-ending injury this week and got 13 carries for 47 yards from Jamal Roberts in the opener. Eli Drinkwitz said out loud that he does not feel great about that room. If Kansas makes Missouri throw to move the ball, it is Austin Simmons in his second start, on the road, against a front that has already shown teeth.

The obstacle is real and I am not hiding from it. Missouri's defense is the reason it is favored, ranked 21st in SP+ against a Kansas offense with five new linemen and a quarterback who had not played a full game in three years before last week. Simmons was 17-of-19 for 252 and four scores, and All-American tackle Cayden Green is trending back into the lineup, which makes Missouri's line better than anything its opener showed. Missouri also erased three deficits in Columbia last year and won by eleven. That is a legitimate path to a cover, and it is why this is a lean, not a pound.

But last year's game also had Kansas up 21-6 and holding a lead in the fourth quarter on the road. Tonight the venue flips, the Missouri backfield is thinner, and the number gives the home team a full field goal and a hook against a spread the ratings do not fully support. In a rivalry game between two second-start quarterbacks, I want the side with the mobile passer, the front that got into the backfield, the crowd, and the points.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· +110

Under the dome at Tropicana Field, the AL East-leading Rays hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen while the Astros open this three-game set with a bullpen game behind rookie Miguel Ullola. First pitch is 7:10 ET, two division leaders, and a mound matchup that could not be more lopsided on paper. This pick rides on two things. First, the pitching gap. Rasmussen is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, and his last start was 7.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts and 0 walks. Over his last five starts he has 26 strikeouts against 5 walks in 29.0 innings. On the other side, Ullola has 7.0 innings all season and has never started a game. Houston is stitching nine innings together out of the pen. Second, the lineup Houston posted. Seven of nine hitters bat right-handed, and Rasmussen has held righties to a .178 average and .490 OPS across 225 at-bats this season. Yordan Alvarez, Houston's best bat at .310 with 38 homers, is not on tonight's card at all. Altuve is at DH. That is a lineup built to struggle against this exact pitcher, in a dome that gives hitters nothing extra. The strongest case against me is the price and the variance. Tampa at -200 on the moneyline is expensive, and the run line asks them to win by two. Rasmussen's fourth-most-recent start was 5.0 innings and 5 earned runs, so even his good stretch has a blowup in it. Houston has been playing tight games, winning 2-0, 3-1 and 2-1 within its last ten, and tight games keep an underdog inside a run and a half. I took the run line anyway because that is exactly why it pays plus money. Tampa is 47-25 at home, they scored seven runs in each of the two games before last night, and their lefty-heavy card gets a rookie opener and then whoever Houston has left in the pen. When the ace side also has the deeper lineup, the platoon edge and the home park, I would rather take +110 than lay two dollars to win one. Give me the Rays to win by more than a run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· +114

Friday night at Rogers Centre, and Chris Bassitt walks back into the building he pitched in for three seasons, this time in Orioles gray, while Max Scherzer takes the ball for a Blue Jays club sitting one game out of the last wild card. Both teams are off a rest day, and the market has Toronto at -134. What carries this pick is the way the two lineups line up against the two arms. Scherzer has allowed a .819 OPS to left-handed hitters this year with 8 of his home runs coming in 152 at-bats against them, and he leans fly-ball at 0.56 grounders per flyout with a 9.2% barrel rate allowed. Baltimore runs six lefties at him tonight, Beavers, Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Kjerstad, and Cowser, with Alonso and his 34 homers anchoring from the right side. Flip it around. Bassitt's weakness is also lefties at a .902 OPS, but Toronto only has four in the order, and its best bats are righties. Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, and Okamoto all face a pitcher holding right-handers to a .654 OPS with one home run in 140 at-bats. Toronto's power is pointed at Bassitt's strength. Baltimore's power is pointed at Scherzer's weakness. Add that Bassitt has gone at least 5.1 innings in five straight starts with nothing worse than 5 earned, while Scherzer walked 12 in his last 26.2 innings, has a 4-inning, 7-run disaster in that stretch, and struck out two hitters last time out. He is 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA and I am being paid plus money to fade him. The best argument against me is the back end. Varland's 1.24 ERA is real, Toronto's bullpen is far better than Baltimore's, and five of Baltimore's seven losses in its last ten came by one or two runs. If this is a one-run game in the eighth, I am on the wrong side. I took Baltimore anyway because Toronto has scored 1, 5, 4, and 0 runs in its last four games, and that elite pen needs a lead to protect. Baltimore has outscored Toronto over the full season at 4.5 runs a game to 4.0, and just put up 20 runs in three games against Cleveland. The platoon math says the lefties get to Scherzer before Varland ever matters, and at +114 that is a number I want.

What carries this pick is the way the two lineups line up against the two arms. Scherzer has allowed a .819 OPS to left-handed hitters this year with 8 of his home runs coming in 152 at-bats against them, and he leans fly-ball at 0.56 grounders per flyout with a 9.2% barrel rate allowed. Baltimore runs six lefties at him tonight, Beavers, Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Kjerstad, and Cowser, with Alonso and his 34 homers anchoring from the right side. Flip it around. Bassitt's weakness is also lefties at a .902 OPS, but Toronto only has four in the order, and its best bats are righties. Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, and Okamoto all face a pitcher holding right-handers to a .654 OPS with one home run in 140 at-bats. Toronto's power is pointed at Bassitt's strength. Baltimore's power is pointed at Scherzer's weakness. Add that Bassitt has gone at least 5.1 innings in five straight starts with nothing worse than 5 earned, while Scherzer walked 12 in his last 26.2 innings, has a 4-inning, 7-run disaster in that stretch, and struck out two hitters last time out. He is 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA and I am being paid plus money to fade him.

The best argument against me is the back end. Varland's 1.24 ERA is real, Toronto's bullpen is far better than Baltimore's, and five of Baltimore's seven losses in its last ten came by one or two runs. If this is a one-run game in the eighth, I am on the wrong side. I took Baltimore anyway because Toronto has scored 1, 5, 4, and 0 runs in its last four games, and that elite pen needs a lead to protect. Baltimore has outscored Toronto over the full season at 4.5 runs a game to 4.0, and just put up 20 runs in three games against Cleveland. The platoon math says the lefties get to Scherzer before Varland ever matters, and at +114 that is a number I want.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· +110

Subway Series in the Bronx on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, and the two hottest arms in New York get the ball: Nolan McLean for the Mets, Carlos Rodón for the Yankees. I'm taking the Mets at plus money, and the reason is simple: the deeper starter is on the road side. McLean has gone at least six innings in all five of his last starts, 31 innings with a 1.16 ERA and one home run allowed. Rodón hasn't gotten past the fifth in any of his last five, and he's given up three homers in 22.2 innings while walking 12. That gap in innings decides who has to lean on middle relief tonight, and it's the Yankees. Bednar is elite, but he only matters if there's a lead to protect in the ninth, and the Mets get four innings of Yankee middle relief before that question comes up. The price is also paying for a fragile number. Rodón's opponents carry a .273 wOBA against a .305 expected, so the market is buying an ERA his contact quality doesn't support. He's a fly-ball pitcher at 0.58 grounders per flyout, and tonight the wind is blowing 7 mph out to right at 77 degrees toward the short porch. Lindor has 5 homers in his last 10 games and Soto has 3. The Mets' averages are down, but the power that beats a fly-ball lefty in this park is alive. On the other side, Judge is hitting .243 with one homer over his last ten, and Chisholm just went on the IL Thursday, which thins the middle of the lineup in a way the line has barely had a day to absorb. The best argument against me is real and I'm not hiding from it: McLean allows a .699 OPS to lefties, he's walked 17 in those 31 innings, and Boone stacked six left-handed bats around Judge to attack exactly that. Add a Mets bullpen without Devin Williams that's been allowing 5.8 runs a game over the last ten versus 3.2 for the Yankees, and you can see why the Yankees are favored. I take the Mets anyway because McLean's six innings shrink that bullpen problem to three, while Rodón's five expose the Yankees' for four. The Mets have won four straight, took two of three from this team in May, and at +110 I'm getting paid to back the better starter tonight.

The price is also paying for a fragile number. Rodón's opponents carry a .273 wOBA against a .305 expected, so the market is buying an ERA his contact quality doesn't support. He's a fly-ball pitcher at 0.58 grounders per flyout, and tonight the wind is blowing 7 mph out to right at 77 degrees toward the short porch. Lindor has 5 homers in his last 10 games and Soto has 3. The Mets' averages are down, but the power that beats a fly-ball lefty in this park is alive. On the other side, Judge is hitting .243 with one homer over his last ten, and Chisholm just went on the IL Thursday, which thins the middle of the lineup in a way the line has barely had a day to absorb.

The best argument against me is real and I'm not hiding from it: McLean allows a .699 OPS to lefties, he's walked 17 in those 31 innings, and Boone stacked six left-handed bats around Judge to attack exactly that. Add a Mets bullpen without Devin Williams that's been allowing 5.8 runs a game over the last ten versus 3.2 for the Yankees, and you can see why the Yankees are favored. I take the Mets anyway because McLean's six innings shrink that bullpen problem to three, while Rodón's five expose the Yankees' for four. The Mets have won four straight, took two of three from this team in May, and at +110 I'm getting paid to back the better starter tonight.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -111

Friday night under the closed roof at loanDepot Park, and the red-hot Dodgers roll into Miami on a seven-game heater with Blake Snell on the mound against Ryan Gusto and a Marlins club that just got swept out of New York. The number that carries this pick is Snell's last five starts: 29 innings, 15 hits, 3 earned runs, 38 strikeouts, and not a single home run allowed. He is facing a lineup with one hitter over .300 in Otto Lopez and two left-handed bats, Kyle Stowers (.204 vs LHP) and Griffin Conine (.603 OPS vs LHP), who have been close to automatic outs against left-handed pitching all year. Miami's hitters whiff 25.6 percent of the time and chase 32.2 percent, which is exactly the profile a strikeout lefty feeds on. The second leg is the back half of the game. Gusto has not finished the 6th inning in any of his last five starts, allowed 29 hits in 23.1 innings over that stretch, and gave up 2 homers his last time out, and his season line is a 4.23 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 43.3 percent hard-hit rate allowed. That means Miami's bullpen, which threw 28 innings across its last three games, lost Anthony Bender to a shin shutdown yesterday, and hands the ninth to a closer in Pete Fairbanks carrying a 6.02 ERA fresh off the IL, has to cover four-plus innings against Betts, Tucker, Muncy, Smith, and Teoscar. The Dodgers' pen threw 6.33 innings over the same three games, and Tanner Scott (2.62 ERA), Vesia, and Dreyer are all rested. From the 6th inning on, this game tilts hard one direction, and that is where a one-run lead becomes a two-run cover. The honest case against me is that this Dodgers lineup is thin. Ohtani went on the IL Wednesday, Freeman is out again with the knee, and Josue De Paula is making his big-league debut at DH with Freeland and Enrique Hernández behind him. Snell has also walked 12 in those 29 innings, and the 7.5 total tells you the market expects a low-scoring game where one free baserunner and one hard-hit ball keeps Miami within a run. I took the run line anyway because the price already bakes in those absences at -198, the Marlins' 43-32 home record was not built against a left-hander pitching like this, and Gusto's early exits force the matchup I want most: a taxed, short-handed Miami pen against the Dodgers' top five for the final third of the game. At -108 that is the calculated risk worth taking.

The second leg is the back half of the game. Gusto has not finished the 6th inning in any of his last five starts, allowed 29 hits in 23.1 innings over that stretch, and gave up 2 homers his last time out, and his season line is a 4.23 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 43.3 percent hard-hit rate allowed. That means Miami's bullpen, which threw 28 innings across its last three games, lost Anthony Bender to a shin shutdown yesterday, and hands the ninth to a closer in Pete Fairbanks carrying a 6.02 ERA fresh off the IL, has to cover four-plus innings against Betts, Tucker, Muncy, Smith, and Teoscar. The Dodgers' pen threw 6.33 innings over the same three games, and Tanner Scott (2.62 ERA), Vesia, and Dreyer are all rested. From the 6th inning on, this game tilts hard one direction, and that is where a one-run lead becomes a two-run cover.

The honest case against me is that this Dodgers lineup is thin. Ohtani went on the IL Wednesday, Freeman is out again with the knee, and Josue De Paula is making his big-league debut at DH with Freeland and Enrique Hernández behind him. Snell has also walked 12 in those 29 innings, and the 7.5 total tells you the market expects a low-scoring game where one free baserunner and one hard-hit ball keeps Miami within a run. I took the run line anyway because the price already bakes in those absences at -198, the Marlins' 43-32 home record was not built against a left-hander pitching like this, and Gusto's early exits force the matchup I want most: a taxed, short-handed Miami pen against the Dodgers' top five for the final third of the game. At -108 that is the calculated risk worth taking.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· +110

Friday night in Milwaukee, and the Reds walk into American Family Field a week after taking the Brewers behind the woodshed at home, with Dustin May and Andrew Abbott squaring off in game one. I bleed Reds red, and I would love to tell you Elly De La Cruz, hitting .459 with five homers over the last ten, carries this team again. But the money goes where the bullpens point, and tonight that is Milwaukee, by more than a run. Here is the read. Neither starter is built to go deep right now. May has averaged 4.46 innings over his last five starts and Abbott 4.74, so this game lands in the relievers' hands by the fifth. Cincinnati played Thursday and burned six relievers in the Dodgers blowout, ending with a position player on the mound, and the arms left standing are Pagan at a 3.93 ERA and Santillan at 6.93. Milwaukee had Thursday off, and Megill and Uribe come in with light workloads and ERAs of 2.59 and 2.06. When the game is decided in the sixth or seventh, that gap is where a one-run lead becomes a three-run lead, and that is why I want the run line at plus money instead of laying two to one on the moneyline. The platoon math stacks on top. Right-handed hitters carry a .650 OPS against May, and Francona is running five righties, while Elly hits from the weaker left side tonight. Abbott's fastball, thrown nearly half the time, has been tagged for a .386 xwOBA, and Chourio already owns a 1.786 OPS against him in a small sample. The best argument against me is real. Milwaukee's staff has given up 6.4 runs a game over the last ten, the Reds hung 12 on them Sunday, and May has issued 37 walks to lefties in 292 at-bats, so a Reds offensive night is on the table and a one-run Brewers win loses this ticket. I take the chalk by the extra run anyway because the fatigue is on Cincinnati's side of the ledger, the home team is 50-25 in this building, and the late innings belong to the club that rested yesterday.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· +158

Friday night at Truist Park, the division on the line, and two aces who have been dealing: Chris Sale takes the ball for Atlanta against Aaron Nola and a Phillies club that has to win every game left in this series. The market has Atlanta at -188, and that is where I part ways with the market. The price is built on Nola's 4.76 ERA, and that number does not describe the pitcher showing up tonight. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, a 1.80 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 30 innings, and his season-long expected wOBA of .307 sits nearly forty points under his actual .345. That gap is a read on the price, not a promise about tonight, but it tells me the books are paying for a fragile number. On the other side of the ball, the Braves' offense has gone quiet at the wrong time. They are 4-6 over their last ten, held to three runs or fewer in six of those games, with Matt Olson at 4-for-36 and Michael Harris II at 5-for-34 in the heart of the order. Lane Thomas went on the IL today. Philadelphia already took a 1-0 game and a 4-2 game from this group last week, and every one of those four meetings finished within three runs. A team that scores three runs a night cannot be a two-to-one favorite against a starter who has been giving up one. The strongest argument against me is Sale himself. He is the best pitcher in this game, with 41 strikeouts against three walks over his last five starts, and he gets a right-handed heavy Phillies lineup that has been whiffing at 26.7 percent and chasing at 38.7 percent over its last three games. Righties hit .213 with a .568 OPS off him this year, and Brandon Marsh's foot bruise puts one more righty in the order. I respect all of it. But Sale still gave up eight hits in one of those five starts and three earned in another, and Bryce Harper at .314 and Luis Arraez at .333 over the last ten are the kind of contact bats that survive a lefty like him. This is a total-seven game between two hot starters and two cold offenses, which makes it closer to a coin flip than the number says. With the season riding on it for Philadelphia, I will take the plus money and the pitcher nobody is pricing correctly.

The price is built on Nola's 4.76 ERA, and that number does not describe the pitcher showing up tonight. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, a 1.80 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 30 innings, and his season-long expected wOBA of .307 sits nearly forty points under his actual .345. That gap is a read on the price, not a promise about tonight, but it tells me the books are paying for a fragile number. On the other side of the ball, the Braves' offense has gone quiet at the wrong time. They are 4-6 over their last ten, held to three runs or fewer in six of those games, with Matt Olson at 4-for-36 and Michael Harris II at 5-for-34 in the heart of the order. Lane Thomas went on the IL today. Philadelphia already took a 1-0 game and a 4-2 game from this group last week, and every one of those four meetings finished within three runs. A team that scores three runs a night cannot be a two-to-one favorite against a starter who has been giving up one.

The strongest argument against me is Sale himself. He is the best pitcher in this game, with 41 strikeouts against three walks over his last five starts, and he gets a right-handed heavy Phillies lineup that has been whiffing at 26.7 percent and chasing at 38.7 percent over its last three games. Righties hit .213 with a .568 OPS off him this year, and Brandon Marsh's foot bruise puts one more righty in the order. I respect all of it. But Sale still gave up eight hits in one of those five starts and three earned in another, and Bryce Harper at .314 and Luis Arraez at .333 over the last ten are the kind of contact bats that survive a lefty like him. This is a total-seven game between two hot starters and two cold offenses, which makes it closer to a coin flip than the number says. With the season riding on it for Philadelphia, I will take the plus money and the pitcher nobody is pricing correctly.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· -116

Friday night at Target Field, and the Guardians roll into Minneapolis with a wild card spot to protect while the Twins try to keep their own season from slipping away. Parker Messick against Taj Bradley, and the market has this one priced as a coin flip. I am on Cleveland, and the pick starts on the mound. Messick has gone at least 5.2 innings in every one of his last five starts with a 2.37 ERA, 37 strikeouts against 7 walks, and just 3 homers allowed in 30.1 innings. He holds right-handed hitters to a .194 average and a .571 OPS, and the Twins send seven right-handed at-bats to the plate against him with their two switch hitters. Bradley is the opposite story. He has walked 13 in his last 27.2 innings, allowed 6 homers in that span, and one of those five starts was a 4.0 inning, 5 run, 4 walk, 2 homer mess. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a 45.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 9.3 percent barrel rate, and tonight he faces seven left-handed at-bats in 81 degree air after giving up 17 homers to lefties in 350 at-bats this season. The Twins' L10 offense looks fine at 54 runs, but 26 of those came in two blowouts of Detroit. In the other eight games they scored 28. Both bullpens had Wednesday off, so this comes down to quality, and Cade Smith at 2.22 with 35 saves beats Yoendrys Gómez at 3.50 in any close ninth. The honest case against me is Cleveland's bat rack. This lineup scores 4.1 runs a game with a .687 team OPS, got shut out twice in its last ten, and Jose Ramirez is hitting .179 over that stretch. Bradley misses bats when he is right, the Twins are 6-4 against Cleveland this year, and a 19 mph wind blowing right to left may knock down some pulled fly balls from the lefties. I take Cleveland anyway because a weak offense against a pitcher walking nearly a batter every two innings is not the same as a weak offense against a good one, and DeLauter at 14-for-36 is the kind of bat that punishes free passes. The better starter, the better pen, and the cleaner platoon matchup for basically even money is the side I want.

I am on Cleveland, and the pick starts on the mound. Messick has gone at least 5.2 innings in every one of his last five starts with a 2.37 ERA, 37 strikeouts against 7 walks, and just 3 homers allowed in 30.1 innings. He holds right-handed hitters to a .194 average and a .571 OPS, and the Twins send seven right-handed at-bats to the plate against him with their two switch hitters. Bradley is the opposite story. He has walked 13 in his last 27.2 innings, allowed 6 homers in that span, and one of those five starts was a 4.0 inning, 5 run, 4 walk, 2 homer mess. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a 45.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 9.3 percent barrel rate, and tonight he faces seven left-handed at-bats in 81 degree air after giving up 17 homers to lefties in 350 at-bats this season. The Twins' L10 offense looks fine at 54 runs, but 26 of those came in two blowouts of Detroit. In the other eight games they scored 28. Both bullpens had Wednesday off, so this comes down to quality, and Cade Smith at 2.22 with 35 saves beats Yoendrys Gómez at 3.50 in any close ninth.

The honest case against me is Cleveland's bat rack. This lineup scores 4.1 runs a game with a .687 team OPS, got shut out twice in its last ten, and Jose Ramirez is hitting .179 over that stretch. Bradley misses bats when he is right, the Twins are 6-4 against Cleveland this year, and a 19 mph wind blowing right to left may knock down some pulled fly balls from the lefties. I take Cleveland anyway because a weak offense against a pitcher walking nearly a batter every two innings is not the same as a weak offense against a good one, and DeLauter at 14-for-36 is the kind of bat that punishes free passes. The better starter, the better pen, and the cleaner platoon matchup for basically even money is the side I want.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs White Sox· -110

Friday night under the arch at Busch Stadium, and both clubs walk in dragging three-game losing streaks with the book calling it a coin flip. The one specific thing on this board that I trust is the shape of the Cardinals' lineup against Anthony Kay. Right-handed hitters are batting .287 with an .868 OPS off Kay, and 18 of the 20 home runs he has allowed came from that side. Lefties are hitting .184 with a .511 OPS. Marmol is sending seven right-handed or switch bats at him, with only Burleson and Church hitting from the left. That is the lineup built to hurt Kay, and Kay has been getting hurt: a 6.84 ERA over his last five starts, five homers allowed, and three exits before the fifth inning. Liberatore is the reason the Cardinals are only -110 at home, and I am fine paying that. He is 5-14 with a 5.57 ERA, and his last five carry a 7.46 ERA with one eight-run outing inside it. But the market is pricing the ugly surface number. His expected wOBA of .337 sits under the .353 he has actually allowed, and over his last 25 innings he has struck out 34 against 6 walks. That does not tell me he pitches well tonight. It tells me the price is not overpaying for him. Both starters project to be short, which turns this into a game decided by the lineups over nine innings, and the lineup with the sharper platoon edge is the home one. The White Sox are 32-40 on the road and 3-7 over their last ten. The best argument against me is that Chicago is simply the better roster: 4.7 runs per game to 4.5, a 4.13 team ERA to 4.31, and a division lead to protect with sixteen games left while St. Louis plays out the string. Walker is hitting .200 over his last ten and Burleson .211, so the Cardinals' best bats are not exactly rolling. I take the Cardinals anyway because tonight's specific edge outweighs the season-long one. Kay's problem with righties is more severe than Liberatore's, it is aimed at a lineup that is almost entirely righties, and at -110 I am paying nothing for it.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -164

Warm night in West Sacramento, wind blowing out to center, and George Kirby takes the ball for Seattle against lefty Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics. The two things carrying this pick are the conditions and who is hitting the ball hard right now. Springs is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.69 GO/AO and a 9.2% barrel rate allowed, and he has given up 23 homers to right-handed hitters in 364 at-bats with an .841 OPS against them. Tonight he gets 86 degrees, a 12 mph wind out to center, a 1.07 park, and a Seattle lineup stacking Cal Raleigh (1.017 OPS vs LHP), Randy Arozarena (.871 vs LHP), Julio Rodriguez (2 HR in 14 AB vs Springs), and Taylor Ward from the right side. Over the last three games Seattle is producing a 40.3% hard-hit rate with a .328 xwOBA and a 116.1 mph max exit velocity. That contact profile against that pitcher in this air is the edge I'd put my own money on. The strongest argument against Seattle is real and I'm not hiding from it. Springs shut this exact lineup out six days ago, seven innings and two hits, and Kirby has a 6.59 ERA over his last five with three starts of 5 or more earned runs. Seattle's season line is a .229 average and a .683 OPS, J.P. Crawford is 1-for-13 against Springs, and Rodriguez is hitting .186 over the last ten. That is a legitimate case for the home dog at +138. But the shutout sits between starts of 7, 4, 2, and 2 earned runs, with 13 walks in 26 innings. I read that gem as the outlier, not the trend. Kirby's ugly results also sit on solid process. His .310 xwOBA allowed is well under his .336 actual, and his 6.9% barrel rate is elite. The market is not overpaying for something fragile here. It is pricing a starter whose surface numbers look worse than his contact suppression. The Athletics are averaging 84.2 mph off the bat with a 28.8% hard-hit rate over their last three games, which is exactly the offense a pitcher leaking hits wants to see. Add the deeper bullpen, with Gabe Speier at 2.61 and Andrés Muñoz rested, and Seattle has the better pitching from the first pitch to the last. Moneyline, not the run line. This series has played tight all year and I want the win, not the margin.

The strongest argument against Seattle is real and I'm not hiding from it. Springs shut this exact lineup out six days ago, seven innings and two hits, and Kirby has a 6.59 ERA over his last five with three starts of 5 or more earned runs. Seattle's season line is a .229 average and a .683 OPS, J.P. Crawford is 1-for-13 against Springs, and Rodriguez is hitting .186 over the last ten. That is a legitimate case for the home dog at +138. But the shutout sits between starts of 7, 4, 2, and 2 earned runs, with 13 walks in 26 innings. I read that gem as the outlier, not the trend.

Kirby's ugly results also sit on solid process. His .310 xwOBA allowed is well under his .336 actual, and his 6.9% barrel rate is elite. The market is not overpaying for something fragile here. It is pricing a starter whose surface numbers look worse than his contact suppression. The Athletics are averaging 84.2 mph off the bat with a 28.8% hard-hit rate over their last three games, which is exactly the offense a pitcher leaking hits wants to see. Add the deeper bullpen, with Gabe Speier at 2.61 and Andrés Muñoz rested, and Seattle has the better pitching from the first pitch to the last. Moneyline, not the run line. This series has played tight all year and I want the win, not the margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks· -102

Roof closed at Chase Field, 72 degrees and dead air, and the Rangers open a three-game set in the desert with MacKenzie Gore against Merrill Kelly. Both clubs are 5-5 over their last ten, both chasing a wild card, and the market has this priced close to a coin flip. My read is the pitcher-to-lineup fit, and it runs one direction. Kelly has allowed a .864 OPS and 18 home runs to left-handed hitters this season with an 11.8 percent barrel rate allowed, and his last two starts went 4 innings for 6 earned and 5 innings for 6 earned with two homers. Texas answers with five left-handed bats in the confirmed lineup: Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, and Lopez. This is also the hottest offense he has seen during the slide, scoring 5.6 runs per game over the last ten. On the other side, Arizona is scoring 2.5 runs per game over the same stretch, Corbin Carroll is 5-for-37, and the lineup hands Gore eight right-handed looks. Gore holds righties to a .708 OPS. He does not need to be great tonight. He needs to be ordinary. The best argument against Texas is the schedule. They played a doubleheader in Seattle on Wednesday, a night game Thursday, then flew to Phoenix while Arizona sat home on an off day. Gore has also been erratic, with 14 walks in 23.2 innings over his last five starts, and two of those outings blew up early. I took the Rangers anyway because Arizona has been surviving one-run games on pitching alone, and tonight they send out the one starter who has not been holding up his end. In his last two starts Kelly has walked more hitters than he has struck out. A tired lineup still hits that. At -102 I am getting the better starter by season and recent form, the hotter bats, and the handedness edge for essentially nothing. I stay on the moneyline rather than the run line because Gore's own volatility and Arizona's habit of keeping games tight make the extra run a coin flip I do not need.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

SHOTA IMANAGAK'S UNDER 6.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -140

Imanaga has cleared this number only once in his last eight starts, and he has averaged 5.4 strikeouts per start this season. Pittsburgh’s lineup does carry swing-and-miss risk, but Imanaga’s recent strikeout totals have stayed below this number even when he has worked deep. I’m asking for seven strikeouts from a pitcher whose recent results point more toward five or six.

GARY'S PICK

ONEIL CRUZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -140

Cruz is coming off a three-hit performance and has hit .301 against left-handed pitching this season. He is also seeing the ball well in September, batting .346 through his first 26 at-bats. Imanaga has handled Pittsburgh before, but Cruz’s combination of current form, left-handed matchup success and premium contact gives him a strong chance to find at least one hit.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEX BREGMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +700

This is the long shot, but Bregman is the Cubs hitter I want against Dotel. Bregman has five homers in his last 15 games, and Dotel is making his first major-league start after working primarily in relief. His fastball is lively, but his overall contact profile leaves room for a mistake, and Bregman has the approach to punish one. At seven-to-one, the price makes this worth the swing.

GARY'S PICK

YOHANDY MORALESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -157

Morales has already shown real impact in this lineup, with three hits and two home runs in his first seven games. He draws a lefty in Yusei Kikuchi, whose right-handed opponents have produced more traffic, and Morales bats sixth in front of a strong run-producing core. One hit, run, or RBI is a manageable target.

GARY'S PICK

JACOB YOUNGH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -164

Young is a good fit for this matchup because he hits right-handed pitching well and has been productive against lefties this season. Batting ninth can limit his opportunities, but his speed and contact give him multiple paths to cash: a single, a run scored ahead of the middle order, or an RBI if the bottom of the lineup turns the order over.

THE LONG SHOT

YOHANDY MORALESHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +670

This is the long shot I want. Morales has two homers in seven games, bats right-handed against Kikuchi, and has already shown the kind of immediate power that can change a game with one swing. The price is doing the heavy lifting, so this is a small-stake home run shot rather than a high-confidence play.

GARY'S PICK

SONNY GRAYPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -144

Gray has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, including his latest seven-scoreless-inning performance. Kansas City’s lineup is dangerous at the top, but Gray’s sweeper and curveball give him the swing-and-miss edge, and Boston’s rested bullpen protects him if he exits early.

GARY'S PICK

WILYER ABREURBI UNDER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -141

Abreu is a productive hitter, but the RBI price asks him to cash in tonight. He has gone over this number only twice in his last 15 games, and Boston’s recent offense has been inconsistent. Seth Lugo has been hittable, yet Abreu’s RBI chances depend heavily on traffic ahead of him and a clean conversion with runners in scoring position.

THE LONG SHOT

CARTER JENSENHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +550

Jensen is the Royals’ hottest power bat, with three homers in his last seven games and five in his last 15. He gets a right-handed starter in Sonny Gray, and Fenway’s short right-field line gives a left-handed hitter a favorable target. Gray is the better pitcher, but this price is long enough to back Jensen’s current power without needing Kansas City to win.

GARY'S PICK

ADAEL AMADORH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -167

Amador has been one of Colorado’s most productive bats since his call-up, and he has cleared this number in 9 of his last 12. The switch-hitter has handled left-handed pitching well, while Framber Valdez has been more vulnerable to right-handed hitters than his recent scoreless start suggests. Batting sixth gives Amador multiple chances to cash this through a hit, a run or an RBI.

THE LONG SHOT

RILEY GREENEHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +475

Greene is the home-run look I want from Detroit. He has three homers in his last seven days, carries an .855 OPS against right-handed pitching and draws Mason Adams, who has allowed four homers in only 13.2 major-league innings. Comerica suppresses cheap power, but Greene’s recent form and the matchup give this long price a real path.

GARY'S PICK

TROY JOHNSTONH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -172

Johnston has produced a hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15, and Colorado’s lineup is likely to see traffic against Valdez before Detroit’s strong bullpen takes over. The left-handed matchup is the concern, but Johnston owns a .283 season average and bats seventh, with McCarthy, Norby and Carrigg setting the table ahead of him. I’m willing to pay the price for one contribution.

GARY'S PICK

CHANDLER SIMPSONSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -154

Simpson doesn't hit for power, he hits for contact and then runs. Zero home runs on the season against a .308 average and 41 stolen bases tells you exactly what kind of night he's built for, and tonight's matchup plays right into it. Miguel Ullola is making the first start of his career, an opener by design because Houston has never let him pitch more than two innings as a big leaguer. Once he's done, Simpson sees a rebuilt Astros bullpen that already blew a lead two nights ago in Philadelphia, with arms carrying ERAs north of five. Tropicana's turf helps a hitter like this too, a sharp grounder with some topspin gets through the infield faster than it would on grass, and Simpson's speed turns close plays into hits more often than most. He's picked up a single in 10 of his last 15 games, and a lineup of unfamiliar arms behind Ullola is exactly the kind of night that streak keeps rolling.

THE LONG SHOT

VICTOR MESA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +475

Mesa Jr. has gone deep in back-to-back games, off López on Wednesday and off Iglesias on Thursday, and he's posted an OPS over 1.000 across his last two weeks at the plate. Eleven of his twelve home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and tonight he draws a right-hander who has never made a big league start in his life. Miguel Ullola is being used as an opener specifically because Houston doesn't trust him past a couple of innings. Tropicana Field is a pitcher's park overall, and I won't pretend the dome does a hot bat any favors on a deep fly ball. But Mesa is running as hot as anyone in this lineup right now, he sees a starter with zero track record at this level, and the price on a hitter with his current form and matchup is too good to leave alone at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

JEREMY PENAHITS OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· -200

Pena has a real history against Rasmussen, four hits in eight career at-bats, and that track record matters more to me tonight than his current cold spell. He's hitting .115 over his last week and .103 in September, exactly the kind of stretch that makes people scared off a hitter prop. But this is a bet on one hit, not a return to form, and Pena still bats near the top of a lineup that gives him four-plus trips to the plate. Even walking through this slump, he's found a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. Rasmussen is not an easy out for anybody right now, he's held right-handed hitters to a .178 average this season and has been pitching his best baseball of the year the last three starts. That's the honest case against this. But Pena's own numbers against this specific pitcher buck the pattern, and Houston's lineup will see Tampa's bullpen too before the night is over if Rasmussen's pitch count climbs in a game this big. One clean single clears the bar, and I like his track record against this arm to get him there.

GARY'S PICK

ANTHONY VOLPEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -155

This is about as easy as these boards get. Volpe delivered a three-hit, five-RBI night with a grand slam in his return from Triple-A on Thursday, and tonight's bar is just one hit, run, or RBI — he's cleared that in eleven of his last fifteen games. He's locked into an everyday role in the two-hole of a lineup that just put up ten runs on Colorado, hitting in front of Judge, Bellinger and García, and Boone made clear after Thursday's win that Volpe earned this chance rather than just inheriting it because Chisholm went down. I'll be straight about the matchup: McLean has been rough on left-handed bats this year but he's held righties like Volpe to a .511 OPS, so this isn't a favorable pitching matchup on paper. What sells me is the math around it — Volpe gets three or four trips to the plate, the Mets bullpen has allowed runs in bunches all series and is sitting on a 7.03 ERA over its last week, and it only takes one clean swing or one time around the bases against that relief mix to get this home. A hot bat getting everyday at-bats with a shaky pen waiting behind the starter is enough for me to lean into a number this short.

GARY'S PICK

NOLAN MCLEANPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBNew York Mets· -134

McLean is in the best form of his season right now, and I'm backing him to keep the Yankees off the board. Over his last three starts he's allowed two earned runs across nineteen innings, a 0.95 ERA, and the under on this exact number has hit in seven of his last eight turns. He's also sitting on six days of rest after a career-high 105 pitches against the Giants, plenty of time to be sharp tonight. The counter here is real: Boone has stacked six left-handed bats into the lineup, and McLean has allowed a .699 OPS to lefties this season against a much tighter .511 mark to righties. But he manages contact well against everybody — a 6.3 percent barrel rate and 35.7 percent hard-hit rate allowed on the year — and he's averaging barely over seventeen outs a start, which caps his own exposure before the lineup can turn over twice. Yankee Stadium plays hitter-friendly and the wind is blowing out tonight, so this isn't a lock, but McLean has allowed more than two earned runs in a start exactly once in his last eight tries, and I need a much better reason than a short porch to bet against that kind of consistency.

THE LONG SHOT

MARK VIENTOSHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +475

Vientos is back in the lineup tonight for exactly this matchup after sitting the last three games, and the matchup is worth building a card around. He's hitting .286 with an .899 OPS against left-handers this season, and eight of his thirteen home runs have come against lefties in just 98 at-bats — a homer every twelve or so at-bats when a southpaw is on the mound. Rodón is a fly-ball arm, under a 0.60 groundout-to-flyout ratio, pitching into a wind blowing out to right field at seven miles an hour tonight in a park that already favors left-handed power with its short porch. Vientos has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games and he's 2-for-10 in his career against Rodón. He's a different, much quieter hitter against right-handers, so I'm not counting on him once the bullpen turns over, but the exposure that matters here is his first two or three looks at a fly-ball lefty in a ballpark built for exactly what he does. That's worth a shot at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

MAX SCHERZERK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -140

Scherzer's strikeout numbers have fallen off a cliff and the line hasn't caught up. Over his last eight starts he has punched out 2, 10, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, and 4 hitters — one game over this total, and that one came against a Seattle lineup swinging out of its shoes in a start where he happened to go seven innings. Take that outlier away and he hasn't been within a strikeout of this number since June. His pitch counts explain why: 76, 97, 92, 73, 92, 84, 84, and 75 across that stretch, which caps him at four or five innings and somewhere around 20 to 24 hitters most nights. At his season rate of 26 strikeouts per 100 plate appearances, even a full workload barely clears 5.5, and he is not getting full workloads at 42 years old. The case against me is the lineup he's facing. Baltimore whiffs in bulk — Cowser is down on strikes more than a third of the time, Mayo is not far behind, and the group fans 9.26 times a game. If Scherzer is sharp early and Albernaz leaves his regulars in deep counts, this total is reachable. But reachable is different from likely against a pitcher who has cleared it once in eight tries and hasn't thrown more than 97 pitches in a start since April. I want the under.

GARY'S PICK

BRETT BATEMANSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -150

Bateman leads off for Toronto hitting .327 on the season and .333 over his last fifteen days, and tonight he gets a pitcher with a real problem against hitters from his side of the plate. Bassitt has allowed a .902 OPS and 8 home runs in 202 at-bats to left-handed hitters this year, and his most-used pitch, the sinker he throws almost 38 percent of the time, is getting hit at a .336 clip. Bateman isn't trying to do damage — zero home runs in 113 at-bats — he's a contact bat who sprays singles, and he has recorded one in 10 of his last 15 games. That profile lines up well against a pitch Bassitt can't keep off barrels. There's a scheduling detail that helps too. Bassitt's ERA on the road this season is 6.43 against 3.55 at home, and tonight he's the visitor at Rogers Centre. He has thrown at least 5.1 innings in each of his last five starts, so he isn't getting an early hook — Bateman should see him multiple times. The risk is that a leadoff hitter's aggressive early-count approach sometimes turns a single into a long out instead, but with this average, this form, and this specific platoon weakness sitting across from him, I like the bat to find a hole.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +310

Alonso has 34 home runs this season and the split tells you where they came from — a .891 OPS and 25 of those 34 against right-handed pitching, roughly one every 15 at-bats when the arm on the mound throws from that side. Scherzer throws right-handed, and Scherzer has already given up 5 home runs in just 89 at-bats to right-handed hitters this year, a rate that outpaces most of the league. His ERA at Rogers Centre, tonight's park, is actually worse than his road number, 6.23 at home against 5.70 away, and his barrel rate allowed sits at 9.2 percent. When hitters connect against him, they are connecting well, and Alonso does his best connecting against exactly this kind of pitcher. The hesitation is recent form. Alonso is 9 for his last 48 with two homers over the past 15 days, a .657 OPS stretch that's cooler than his season line, and he's only 4 for 20 in his career against Scherzer with nothing to show for the power in that small sample. This isn't a hitter running hot into the matchup. But a home run prop doesn't need heat, it needs one mistake pitch in a hitter's zone, and the platoon math plus Scherzer's homer-prone history at this ballpark says the odds of that mistake finding Alonso's bat are live at this price.

GARY'S PICK

OTTO LOPEZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -182

Otto Lopez has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games, and tonight's matchup plays right into his strength. He's hitting .331 with an .847 OPS against left-handers this season, actually a better mark than he carries against right-handers, and Snell is a lefty. Lopez doesn't give away at-bats either, 80 strikeouts across 571 at-bats over a full season is one of the lowest rates on this roster, and he's already 1-for-3 in his career against Snell. Hitting second means he's getting roughly four plate appearances no matter how the game unfolds. His two-week average has cooled to .255, but he's heated back up over the last week at .318, and a .303 hitter with a contact-first approach doesn't need to be locked in to poke one single through the infield. Snell has been excellent, but bat-to-ball feel is exactly the skill that keeps a hitter alive against a strikeout lefty, and that's the whole of Lopez's game.

THE LONG SHOT

MOOKIE BETTSHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +800

Betts is running the hottest bat on this roster right now. He's hitting .375 with a 1.224 OPS in September with three home runs in just 32 at-bats, and over his last 15 games he's 17-for-49 with three homers and a 1.061 OPS. He's actually done more damage this season against right-handed pitching than left, 14 of his 19 home runs have come against righties, and Gusto throws right-handed. He's also 1-for-3 in his own limited history against him. Gusto is walking into this one about as hittable as you can ask for if you're buying a home run price. Hitters are batting .241 off his four-seamer and .414 off his sinker, he's allowing a 43.3 percent hard-hit rate and an 8.6 percent barrel rate on the season, and he hasn't finished the sixth inning in six straight starts. Heriberto Hernandez has actually gone deep more often over his last 15 games, but he has to get through Blake Snell, who hasn't allowed a home run in six straight starts and is holding hitters to a 13.5 percent hard-hit rate. I'd rather have the hot bat facing the pitcher who's bleeding contact than the hot bat facing the one who just shut the power off completely. Eight-to-one on Betts is the longshot I want tonight.

GARY'S PICK

BLAKE SNELLK'S UNDER 7.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -130

Snell's stuff is missing bats, but this number sits above where he's actually living. Over his last six starts he's punched out 7, 10, 6, 5, 10, and 5 hitters, a 7.2 average, and only those two ten-strikeout nights have cleared 7.5. His most recent time out, six innings against Washington, ended at seven, one shy of the number. He's throwing on six days of rest, and his own manager has already said this month that Snell wasn't as efficient as he'd like with his pitch count, which points to a start managed for length and walks, not one built to chase a career strikeout night. Miami isn't a free-swinging lineup at the top of the order either. Otto Lopez is hitting .303 and doesn't expand the zone, and Javier Sanoja has run a .373 average over his last two weeks putting the bat on the ball. I like Snell to pitch well again tonight, I just think the total lands at seven, not eight.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -187

Elly De La Cruz has a hit in fourteen of his last fifteen games, and right now a bare single is about as safe a number as this board offers. He's hitting .500 with five home runs over the last week and .484 for the month of September, the kind of stretch that turns even a tough platoon matchup into an afterthought. Even on the weaker side of his split, the one he hits from against a right-hander tonight, he's still sitting on sixteen home runs and a .792 OPS for the year, and he comes to the plate more than anyone else in this lineup at close to five trips a night. The only way this misses is a completely empty night at the plate, and nothing from the last month says that's coming.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW ABBOTTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -133

Abbott has walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and it isn't noise — his control has genuinely eroded as the year has gone on, with a 2.4-walk-per-start rate over a full season's worth of turns. He leans on his four-seamer nearly half the time and it's getting hit to the tune of a .386 expected average, which means once he starts missing spots he tends to nibble rather than challenge, and Milwaukee has the lineup to make him pay for it. Turang and Bauers alone have drawn 167 walks between them this year, and neither one chases. The one recent clean outing came against this same Brewers team, when a long rain delay held him to four innings and he escaped without a walk. That was the weather doing the work, not sharper command. Under clear skies tonight he gets a normal turn, and a normal turn from this version of Abbott means at least two free passes.

THE LONG SHOT

EUGENIO SUAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +660

Eugenio Suarez is built to hit this exact number — twenty-two home runs against a .208 average tells you the profile, all or nothing, and right now he's running hot on the power side. Four homers in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week alone with a 1.028 OPS to go with it. He also has a track record against tonight's starter specifically, five hits in eleven career at-bats against Dustin May with one clearing the fence, and May leans on a mid-90s four-seamer and cutter for roughly half his pitches, exactly the kind of velocity a right-handed pull hitter can turn around at American Family Field, one of the friendlier parks in the league for it. This is a long shot and it will miss more often than not, but a hot power stretch against a pitcher he's already hit for extra bases makes this the one worth taking off the board tonight.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE SCHWARBERH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -167

Schwarber leads off and gets more trips to the plate than anyone else in this lineup, and he is doing it as the majors' home run leader. That combination makes 0.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs a number I like most nights, and he has cleared it in ten of his last fifteen games against a price that is not asking for that much more. The matchup adds to it. Schwarber is a left-handed hitter who has turned the platoon disadvantage upside down this season, .274 with a .930 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he already has five hits and two home runs in twenty-two career at-bats against Sale. He is running hot into this series, three home runs in his last week, including Wednesday's grand slam that blew the Astros game open, and he drew a leadoff walk in Thursday's loss even on a night without a hit. The hesitation is the price itself. Sale has been excellent, twenty-four strikeouts against one walk over his last three starts, and a punch-out from Schwarber's leadoff at-bat is always in play against a pitcher this sharp. But he gets four and a half plate appearances tonight against a pitcher he has already hit, in a role built for him to find one hit, one run, or one RBI, and I like the volume enough to lay the number.

THE LONG SHOT

MICHAEL HARRIS IIHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +525

Harris has already gone deep three times in thirty-two career at-bats against Aaron Nola, and tonight he faces him again from the side of the plate that suits him best. He has sixteen home runs in three hundred thirty-nine at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, real power production against exactly the type of arm he sees tonight. Nola adds to the case. He has allowed a home run in four of his last six starts, leaning on a four-seamer and sinker that hitters are batting .328 and .336 against this year, and his hard-hit rate allowed sits above forty percent. A pitcher who has settled in over his last two outings can still be found for one mistake, and Harris has already shown he finds Nola's mistakes more than most. I will note the other side. Harris is 2-for-20 with no home runs over his last week, and tonight's forecast brings rain with a breeze in from right field, conditions that tend to work against fly-ball power more than for it. This is a bet on one swing, not a hot streak. But the plus price here is paying sixteen percent for an outcome his last fifteen games have produced at twenty percent, and a real history against tonight's starter plus a favorable platoon matchup make this the longshot I want on the board tonight.

GARY'S PICK

J.T. REALMUTOH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -138

The number here is the lowest bar on the board: one hit, one run scored, or one RBI, with Realmuto getting close to four trips to the plate to find it. Over his last fifteen games he has cleared that bar eleven times. That gap over a minus-138 price is wide enough that I want to be on it even with the surrounding trend working against him. And that trend is real. He is 1-for-16 over the last week, hitting under .120 across his last fifteen days, and a career 2-for-16 against Chris Sale, who has struck out twenty-four hitters against a single walk over his last three starts. Sale has actually been harder on right-handed hitters than lefties this season, .213 with a .568 OPS, and Realmuto bats from the right side. This is a real bet working against a real cold streak. What holds me here is that the number does not need a base hit to cash. Realmuto catches every inning for a lineup that has to score to save its season, and a sacrifice fly, a fielder's choice RBI, or a run scored ahead of him all get this home the same as a single would. Eleven of fifteen over a stretch that already includes his coldest month of the year tells me the bar sits lower than his recent numbers suggest. This is a bet on volume and opportunity, not a call that Realmuto starts hitting again tonight.

GARY'S PICK

PARKER MESSICKPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -173

Messick has kept his earned runs under 2.5 in seven of his last eight starts, and the one miss was a 3-run, 12-strikeout night against Detroit that still lasted six innings. His season ERA sits at 2.53, and this specific matchup has already gone his way twice: in two starts against Minnesota this year he worked 5.2 innings both times and allowed exactly one earned run both times. The bigger issue for the Twins tonight is handedness. Right-handed bats are hitting just .194 with a .571 OPS against him this season, and Minnesota sends seven effective right-handed looks to the plate against a lefty once you count switch-hitters Bell and Lee, with only Clemens and Jenkins batting as true lefties. His changeup is the separator, drawing a 55.6 percent chase rate and holding hitters to a .216 average when they do put it in play. He's worked into the sixth inning or deeper in each of his last six starts and thrown at least 91 pitches in every one of his last eight, so this isn't a short-outing under, it's a shutdown-the-lineup under. This matchup has already played out exactly this way twice this season, and I like it to happen a third time at -173.

GARY'S PICK

TAJ BRADLEYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -135

Bradley has walked at least two hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and I don't need to dress that up much further. He walked four against the Phillies, three against Atlanta, three against Detroit, and two in his last outing at Chicago, with a one-walk night against Oakland the only real outlier in that stretch. That's a season-long pattern, not a blip: he's averaging 2.4 walks a start across 28 turns. His four-seamer is the pitch he leans on almost half the time, and it draws a chase just 23.6 percent of the time, which tells you hitters are laying off it and making him work deep counts to finish innings. Cleveland's lineup is built to make him pay for that approach, with Kwan and Ramírez both carrying real walk totals at the top of the order. Both clubs are fighting for their season this weekend and both bullpens are sitting fully rested, so I don't expect either dugout to rush Bradley into grooving pitches just to shorten at-bats. Seven of eight is the number I'm betting, and -135 doesn't scare me off it.

THE LONG SHOT

KODY CLEMENSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +555

Clemens has gone deep in five of his last fifteen games, and this is not an old hot streak I'm chasing. He's hitting .286 with a 1.019 OPS in September, three home runs in just 28 at-bats this month, and he took Detroit pitching deep in back-to-back games on September 8th and September 9th. The platoon numbers say he prefers right-handers, but he still has five home runs in 127 at-bats against lefties, one every twenty-five swings, which is plenty live for a plus-money swing. Messick is walking into this start off a night where a left-handed bat, Riley Greene, took him deep twice, and the exit-quality numbers on his fastball have climbed in each of his last three outings even as the whiff rate has too. Clemens gets four plate appearances from the five-hole tonight, and he's squaring the ball up as well as anyone in that lineup right now. At plus five-fifty, I want the bat that's actually hot over the ones that are merely live.

GARY'S PICK

ANTHONY KAYPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -151

Eight starts, eight overs. Kay has allowed 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 6, 7, and 5 hits across his last eight outings, and his full-season average sits at exactly 5.0 hits allowed per start — comfortably clear of tonight's 4.5. The matchup does nothing to slow that trend. St. Louis rolls out a lineup that's mostly right-handed and switch bats, and right-handed hitters have hit .287 with an .868 OPS off Kay this season, accounting for 18 of the 20 home runs he has allowed. His last three starts have gone 13.2 innings for 14 earned runs, and he hasn't finished the fifth in either of his last two turns. He's also been the worse pitcher on the road all year — a 5.25 ERA away from home compared to 3.86 at home — and tonight he's the visitor at Busch. A 39.6 percent hard-hit rate against him says the contact keeps coming loud. I don't need a disaster start for this to land, just more of what's already happened in every start since the calendar turned to August.

GARY'S PICK

NATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -162

This is about as low a bar as the board sets. Combined hits, runs, and RBIs at half a run has landed for Church in 14 of his last 15 games, four of them multi-contribution nights, and his season rate on this exact number is 1.6 per game — more than triple what's needed tonight. The one mark against him is the platoon: he's a .217 hitter with a .568 OPS against left-handers, and Kay throws left-handed. But this number isn't demanding a base hit specifically. A run scored from the bottom of the order ahead of Fermín and Herrera, a productive out with a man on third, any one of three separate ways to get there — that's the version of Church that shows up almost every night regardless of who's on the mound. He's an everyday center fielder getting his usual look at the plate, and I like the volume of paths to a number this small.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSHUA BAEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +600

Seven home runs in 84 at-bats this season, and five of those seven have come in just 35 at-bats against left-handed pitching — a 1.059 OPS split that's about as extreme as this roster offers. Kay throws left-handed, and Kay is precisely the pitcher a right-handed slugger wants to see: righties are hitting .287 with an .868 OPS against him, and 18 of the 20 homers he's allowed this season have come from that side of the plate. Baez is locked in right now too, hitting .326 with a 1.021 OPS over his last 15 games with two homers already in September. Plus-600 for a hitter with this exact a platoon lineup and a pitcher who's proven he'll give up the ball to righties is the kind of number worth a swing.

GARY'S PICK

JOSH NAYLORRBI UNDER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -190

Josh Naylor bats sixth for Seattle, but the RBI production hasn't matched the lineup spot. He's driven in 49 runs across 137 games this season, a shade under half a run a night, and he's cleared this number in just three of his last fifteen outings. He hasn't left the yard in his last fifteen games, and even against left-handers like Jeffrey Springs tonight, his home run rate is modest at three in 179 at-bats on the year — the profile is more ground-ball, opposite-field contact than pull-side power. He's also 1-for-9 in his career against Springs. Over his last fifteen days he's hitting .212 with a .476 OPS, and a hitter who's mostly collecting quiet singles right now, in a matchup where he hasn't had success, is exactly the kind of bat that stays off the board even when the team scores. I don't need Seattle's offense to go cold for this one to land, just for Naylor to keep doing what he's already been doing without the extra-base or two-out knock that drives in a run.

THE LONG SHOT

RANDY AROZARENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +360

Randy Arozarena is a right-handed bat with real pop against left-handed pitching — a .871 OPS and seven home runs in 144 at-bats this season — and tonight he gets a small park with the wind blowing out to center at twelve miles an hour and the temperature sitting at 86 degrees. Jeffrey Springs is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.69 groundout-to-airout ratio and a 9.2 percent barrel rate allowed, and he's already given up twenty-three home runs to right-handed hitters this season. Arozarena has gone deep twice in his last fifteen games and already has a home run in sixteen career at-bats against Springs. This is a long shot because every home run bet is, but it's the right shape of one — a power bat with the platoon edge, facing a homer-prone lefty, in a ballpark and wind built to turn a fly ball into a souvenir.

GARY'S PICK

DOMINIC CANZONEH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -140

Dominic Canzone has gone cold at the wrong time. He's hitting .231 with a .500 OPS over his last seven games, and stretched to fifteen days it's .236 with a .712 OPS — both below a season line that already averages out to 1.7 combined hits, runs, and RBI a night, short of the three he needs to clear tonight's number. He's also 0-for-5 in his career against Jeffrey Springs. Springs has gotten hit hard by both sides of the plate this season, so I'm not counting on Seattle's offense to go quiet, but stacking a hit, a run, and an RBI into the same game is a tall order for a hitter in the middle of a two-week slump, and I'd rather let that damage come from somewhere else in the order tonight.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDRIDGEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -168

Eldridge has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games and is hitting near .380 over the last two weeks — this has been a hot month, not a hot week. He's actually a better hitter against lefties than righties this season, and Robbie Ray has allowed a higher average to left-handed bats than right-handed ones all year even though his home run trouble skews the other way. A pitcher who's been missing the zone gives a rookie riding a long on-base streak plenty to work with. One hit is about as low a bar as this board offers, and Eldridge has been clearing it all season.

GARY'S PICK

ROBBIE RAYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -184

Ray has fought his control all year — 2.8 walks a start on the season, and he's gone over a walk and a half in seven of his last eight outings. Last time out against the Yankees he was pulled after two innings having already issued four free passes. Now he's walking into Oracle Park for the first time since the Giants shipped him to San Diego at the deadline, against the lineup and the dugout that knows him best. Pitchers with control issues don't usually clean it up in an emotional spot like this — if anything the extra adrenaline of a revenge start makes it worse. I just need two walks from a guy who's been handing them out all season.

THE LONG SHOT

RAFAEL DEVERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +600

Devers is running as hot as anyone in the sport right now — six homers in his last fifteen games, five of them this month alone, with an OPS over 1.4 across his last two weeks. He sat out the finale against St. Louis for his first rest day after 309 straight games, so he should be fresh tonight. He's a far better hitter against right-handers than lefties this year, but he's already gone deep off Ray in their limited history together, and Ray has allowed twenty home runs in twenty-seven starts this season — his fastball in particular gets hit hard. The wind is blowing out to center tonight too, which only helps a swing built to do damage in the air. At plus money, I just need this power surge to show up one more time.

GARY'S PICK

MERRILL KELLYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -169

Merrill Kelly's walk problem has an address, and Texas is bringing five of them tonight. Over his last five starts, twelve of his fourteen walks have gone to left-handed hitters — a pattern that shows up as a two-walk game, a four-walk game, and another four-walk game whenever the lineup across from him skews left. Texas puts five lefty bats in the order: Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, and Lopez. That is exactly the shape that has been getting to him. He is also working at Chase Field, where his own numbers are worse than they are on the road — a 6.10 ERA at home against 4.36 away — and he is coming off six days of rest, longer than his usual turn between starts. His season rate of 2.5 walks per start already clears this number on its own, and he has gone over it in six of his last eight outings. Stack a lefty-heavy lineup on top of a pitcher who already nibbles against left-handed hitters, and I do not need a bad Kelly start tonight, just a normal one.

GARY'S PICK

EVAN CARTERWALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -190

Evan Carter is not walking his way on tonight, not with the way he is swinging the bat right now. He is hitting .195 with a strikeout in nearly three of every ten at-bats this season, the look of a hitter trying to swing his way out of a slump rather than working counts. Over his last fifteen games he has drawn exactly three walks. Over his last three games, one walk in eleven plate appearances. He sits sixth tonight against a right-hander, a lineup spot without the kind of protection that forces a pitcher to be careful, and a .293 on-base mark that reflects a hitter more likely to put a bad pitch in play than take it for a ball. Nothing about tonight's matchup gives him a reason to change that approach.

THE LONG SHOT

JOC PEDERSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +420

Joc Pederson does not hit right-handers, he hunts them. Twenty-five of his twenty-six home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and he is running hot again in September at a 1.020 OPS with two homers in his last fifteen at-bats. He is also 8-for-28 against Merrill Kelly for his career, a real sample against this specific arm. Kelly is the other half of the case. He has allowed twenty-seven home runs in twenty-six starts this season, and left-handed hitters own an .864 OPS with eighteen homers against him. He has even been worse at his own ballpark than on the road, a 6.10 ERA at Chase Field against 4.36 away, so home cooking has not been protecting him either. A red-hot left-handed leadoff hitter with real history against this pitcher, in a park that already plays hitter-friendly, makes one home run at plus-money a price I want.

Hub research

158

FANTASY PICKUPSvs PIT
Shota Imanaga
START: Start Imanaga for strikeouts, but account for his recent home-run volatility Why now: Imanaga is probable against a confirmed Pittsburgh order that has accumulated plenty of strikeouts. His season line stands at a 3.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 156.1 innings. His last five starts produced 27 strikeouts in 23.2 innings but also eight home runs and a 5.70 ERA, making this a useful but volatile start. Who it fits: Managers pursuing strikeouts, wins or quality starts who can tolerate more ratio risk than Imanaga's full-season numbers imply. The risk: The eight home runs and 15 earned runs allowed over his last five starts make another damaging outing plausible despite the favorable strikeout opportunity. Watch next: Confirm that Imanaga remains the listed pitcher and check for any workload update before the 18:20 first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 11, 02:20 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs BUF
C.J. Stroud
SIT: Prefer Trevor Lawrence to Stroud when choosing a Week 1 quarterback Why now: The provider projects Lawrence for 17.0 points and Stroud for 16.2. Lawrence also averaged 274.2 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns over his final five 2025 games, compared with Stroud's 212.6 yards and 1.6 touchdowns. Who it fits: Managers choosing between Stroud and Lawrence in a one-quarterback lineup. The risk: The forecast gap is only 0.8 points, and both five-game baselines are historical rather than evidence of 2026 form. Watch next: Confirm both players' starting status before their September 13 kickoffs. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
THE SWEATRUTG @ BC
THE NUMBER
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 -122
FANTASY PICKUPSat CHC
Rafael Flores Jr.
START: Use Flores as a cleanup power play in today's confirmed lineup Why now: Flores is confirmed batting fourth against probable left-hander Shota Imanaga after hitting sixth yesterday. His eight home runs in 107 at-bats are supported by nearly identical observed and contact-estimated slugging marks of .505 and .503, and he has two homers in his last 10 games. Who it fits: Managers choosing among fringe bats who need home runs or RBI and can prioritize cleanup volume over batting-average safety. The risk: Imanaga owns a 3.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, while Flores has hit .224 with 16 strikeouts in 49 at-bats against left-handers. Watch next: Check for a late lineup change or a switch from the probable pitcher before the 18:20 first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 11, 02:20 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
Mark Andrews
SIT: Use Warren or Goedert over Andrews if that is your tight-end choice Why now: The provider projects Andrews below Warren and Goedert in every listed format. Andrews' final five-game 2025 baseline was also quieter at 3.6 targets and 18 receiving yards per game, versus 6.8 targets for Warren and 6.0 for Goedert. Who it fits: Managers who can start Tyler Warren or Dallas Goedert instead of Andrews. The risk: Those historical samples do not establish current roles, and Andrews still carries an estimated 0.42 receiving touchdowns for Week 1. Watch next: Check confirmed participation and starting status before the September 13 kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
THE SWEATMIZ @ KU
THE NUMBER
Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 -110
FANTASY USAGEat LAC
Jeremiyah Love
START: Use Love over Tuten when receptions count Why now: The provider estimates 4.8 targets and 14.7 PPR points for Love, versus 2.9 targets and 12.8 points for Tuten. That receiving estimate is the clearest separator between two backs without 2026 regular-season observations. Who it fits: Half-PPR or PPR managers choosing between Love and Tuten for an RB or flex slot. The risk: Neither player has a completed 2026 sample or a confirmed start, so both workload estimates remain untested. Watch next: Check official participation and starting information before their September 13 kickoffs. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs LAA
Cade Cavalli
START: Start Cavalli while the dominant five-start run and season foundation agree Why now: Cavalli is probable at home after recording a 1.20 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 44 strikeouts across his last 30 innings. That run sits atop a season with a 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.49 K/9 and 17 quality starts, so the decision does not depend only on a short hot streak. Who it fits: Managers seeking strikeouts, ratios, wins or quality starts in either categories or points formats. The risk: The Angels' batting order has not been posted, and five starts remain a small sample even when supported by strong season results. Watch next: Verify Cavalli's probable assignment and review the posted Angels order before the 22:45 first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 11, 06:45 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs MIA
Michael Mayer
CONSIDER ADD: If Mayer is available, prioritize him over Schultz for a reception-based TE need Why now: Mayer's forecast carries 5.3 targets and 9.3 PPR points, ahead of Schultz's 4.9 targets and 8.4 points. Mayer also averaged 7.5 targets over his final two 2025 games, although that small historical finish does not prove his current role. Who it fits: Managers needing a Week 1 tight end in half-PPR or PPR, conditional on Mayer actually being available. The risk: There are no completed 2026 observations, and Mayer is not confirmed to start. Watch next: Verify his active and starting status before the September 13 kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs KC
Sonny Gray
START: Keep Gray active against Kansas City despite the missing confirmed order Why now: Gray is probable after a five-start stretch with a 2.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 29 strikeouts in 31 innings. His larger season sample is similarly strong: a 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 17 wins and 17 quality starts in 26 starts. Who it fits: Managers protecting ratios while still needing a credible chance at innings, strikeouts, a win or a quality start. The risk: Kansas City's lineup is not confirmed, so the available opponent analysis comes from its previous completed-game order rather than today's hitters. Watch next: Confirm Gray's assignment and inspect the posted Kansas City lineup before the 23:10 first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 11, 07:10 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs HOU
Drew Rasmussen
START: Trust Rasmussen's ratio foundation even with Houston's middle-order threat Why now: Rasmussen is probable with a season-long 2.88 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.16 K/9 and 16 quality starts. He has maintained a 0.90 WHIP over his last five starts, so the observed workload and ratio performance justify using him despite the opponent. Who it fits: Managers prioritizing ERA and WHIP who also need strikeouts or quality-start potential. The risk: Houston's order is unconfirmed, but its prior lineup included Yordan Alvarez with a 1.017 OPS, presenting meaningful damage risk if that core returns. Watch next: Review Houston's posted order and confirm Rasmussen's assignment before the 23:10 first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 11, 07:10 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Devaughn Vele
CONSIDER ADD: Vele is the steadier deep PPR bench candidate, while Tucker owns the better Week 1 forecast Why now: Vele averaged 4.0 catches and 50.8 yards across his five-game 2025 baseline, compared with Tucker's 2.6 catches and 29.2 yards. Tucker's current PPR projection is slightly higher, 10.0 to 9.3, so Vele is the longer-view bench choice rather than the stronger immediate estimate. Who it fits: Deep half-PPR or PPR leagues needing receiver depth, if Vele is available on the specific wire. The risk: Both baselines are old, neither player has a 2026 observation, and Tucker could validate the provider's higher forecast. Watch next: Compare Vele's and Tucker's Week 1 targets, catches and receiving yards. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat BOS
Seth Lugo
SIT: Sit Lugo until the run prevention and strikeouts recover Why now: Lugo is probable at Boston with a 5.04 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 6.74 K/9 for the season. His last five starts have been substantially worse—an 8.51 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and only 15 strikeouts in 24.1 innings—leaving too little category benefit for the ratio exposure. Who it fits: Managers able to bench pitchers and protect ERA or WHIP; the weak strikeout return also limits the appeal in points formats. The risk: Boston's lineup is not posted, and Lugo's contact estimates are slightly better than his observed season results, leaving some rebound possibility. Watch next: Look for improved innings, hits allowed and strikeout output in his next appearance before reconsidering him as a stream. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 11, 07:10 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs BUF
David Montgomery
HOLD: Hold through Montgomery's team change, but do not assume his old role followed him Why now: The Week 1 estimate assigns Montgomery 13.3 carries and 11.7 half-PPR points for Houston. His five-game 2025 baseline came with Detroit and averaged only 7.0 carries, so the forecast describes a possible new role rather than continuity managers can treat as observed. Who it fits: Managers already rostering Montgomery who need running-back or flex depth. The risk: Houston has no completed 2026 sample for him, and his starting role is unconfirmed. Watch next: Use his first Houston game to evaluate carries and targets before reassessing the hold. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs LAD
Heriberto Hernandez
CONSIDER ADD: Consider Hernandez as a short-series power-speed add if he is available and starting Why now: Hernandez has produced 24 home runs and 11 steals in 115 games, a useful category combination for the remaining series. His contact estimates of a .248 average and .494 slugging percentage exceed his observed .225 and .459 marks, suggesting the poor average does not erase the broader power case. Who it fits: Deeper categories leagues where Hernandez is available and the immediate need is home runs with some stolen-base contribution. The risk: His 118 strikeouts in 386 at-bats create average risk, and tonight's lineup has not been posted despite his previous appearance in the second spot. Watch next: Check tonight's batting order and whether he continues starting Saturday and Sunday; placement near the top would preserve the volume case. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ TB
Rays 8-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 8 starts
The Rays are 8-0 in Drew Rasmussen’s last 8 starts this season, winning all 8 in a row. Rasmussen starts tonight at home against Houston.
FANTASY USAGEat MIN
Chris Brooks
WATCH: Brooks leads this deep PPR running-back watchlist, but his role needs confirmation Why now: Brooks' 7.6-point PPR estimate edges Justice Hill's 7.2 and Mike Washington Jr.'s 7.1, helped by a projected 2.5 targets. His 2025 usage was volatile, ranging from 13 carries in the latest game to minimal work in the preceding four. Who it fits: Deep PPR managers monitoring inexpensive running-back depth rather than seeking an immediate starter. The risk: The projection is modest, there is no 2026 sample, and a scheduled game does not confirm playing time. Watch next: Track Brooks' Week 1 carries and targets alongside Hill's and Washington's. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET.
TURNOVERSRUTG @ BC
BC commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
BC committed 1 turnover to RUTG’s 4, a 3-TO-per-game edge over 1 current-2026 game through 2026-09-10. That possession gap could shape how each side plays, but the single-game sample does not show a stable ball-security pattern.
COACHINGRUTG @ BC
RUTG's staff goes for it 4 more times per game on fourth down
RUTG attempted fourth down 5 times to BC’s 1, a 4-attempt-per-game gap over 1 current-2026 game through 2026-09-10. It is a clear early contrast in fourth-down decision-making, though one game may reflect circumstance rather than established staff identity.
FANTASY PICKUPSat DET
Adael Amador
WATCH: Do not chase Amador's 12-game line until the lineup and contact evidence become clearer Why now: Amador's observed start is loud—three home runs, 10 runs and 10 RBI in 12 games—but it covers only 41 plate appearances. His contact estimates are far lower than the results, with a .205 estimated average and .337 estimated slugging percentage versus .333 and .639 observed, while today's probable-pitcher feeds also conflict. Who it fits: Managers considering a speculative bat but able to wait for clearer playing-time and contact evidence. The risk: He has still gone 11-for-34 with two home runs and seven runs across his last 10 observed games, so waiting could miss continued short-term production. Watch next: Check the posted batting order and resolution of the conflicting Framber Valdez and Mason Adams probable-pitcher listings, then monitor the next contact sample. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET.
QUARTERBACKRUTG @ BC
RUTG's passing game is +199 yards per game
RUTG is at 319 team passing yards per game over 1 game; BC is at 120 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
FANTASY USAGEvs NYJ
Carnell Tate
WATCH: Treat Tate's PPR projection as a Week 1 test, not proof of an immediate flex role Why now: Tate's provider estimate of 12.0 PPR points sits close to Odunze's 12.4 and Pittman's 12.3. Unlike those veterans, the rookie has no supplied regular-season baseline or completed 2026 observation, so the comparable projection is not comparable evidence of an established role. Who it fits: PPR managers rostering Tate who have an established receiver available for Week 1. The risk: The estimated 6.9 targets could prove accurate and make a conservative bench decision costly. Watch next: Check Tate's actual Week 1 targets, receptions and receiving yards before making the next lineup call. Evidence as of Sep 11, 03:03 PM ET.
PARK WEATHERSD @ SF
Wind blowing out 19 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Oracle Park — Clear, 61°, wind 19 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 7.5.
REPLACEMENTMIZ @ KU
Malae Fonoti (RB) is out for the season for MIZ
Missouri’s offense lost RB Malae Fonoti for the remainder of the 2026 season after he tore his ACL in the season opener, per the Associated Press on Sep. 8. The report did not identify who absorbs his work.
MISMATCHRUTG @ BC
BC's ball security against RUTG's giveaways — 4 turnovers a game to BC's 1
BC averaged 1 turnover to Rutgers’ 4, the matchup’s widest per-game gap, though each figure comes from one game. That makes ball security a clear contrast, but the sample does not show how BC can force Rutgers’ mistakes.
REPLACEMENTMIZ @ KU
Ahmad Hardy (RB) is out for MIZ
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy remained weeks away and had not returned to practice while recovering from a gunshot wound, per the Associated Press on Sep. 8. His OUT designation affects the offense, but no replacement workload was supplied.
REPLACEMENTRUTG @ BC
Kaelan Chudzinski (TE) is out for the season for BC
BC’s offense will be without TE Kaelan Chudzinski for the 2026 season after an Achilles injury during spring practice, per VSiN on Sep. 10. No replacement or workload split was identified.
TRENCHESRUTG @ BC
BC is +80 rush yards per game
BC averaged 110 rushing yards to RUTG’s 30, an +80 YPG gap over 1 current-2026 game through 2026-09-10. BC brought substantially more ground production into this matchup, but the one-game window cannot show whether that contrast will define the style.
COVERAGERUTG @ BC
BC's secondary gives up 129 fewer passing yards per game
Through 2026-09-10, BC allowed 68 passing yards per game over 1 game, 129 fewer than RUTG’s 197 over 1 game. The facts do not identify the opponents or how often they attacked through the air.
TEAM RECORDCHW @ STL
Cardinals 1-7 in Matthew Liberatore's last 8 starts
The Cardinals are 1-7 in Matthew Liberatore’s last 8 starts this season, including 6 straight losses. Liberatore starts tonight at home against the White Sox.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ WSH
Angels 1-7 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 8 starts
The Angels are 1-7 in Yusei Kikuchi’s last 8 starts this season. Kikuchi starts tonight at Washington.
THE SWEATMIZ @ KU
AIR
Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 -110
THE SWEATRUTG @ BC
GROUND
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 -122
THE SWEATRUTG @ BC
AIR
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 -122
THE SWEATRUTG @ BC
BALL SECURITY
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 -122
THE SWEATMIZ @ KU
GROUND
Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 -110
STREAKLAA @ WSH
WSH have lost 7 straight
WSH have lost 7 straight and been outscored by 23 over the run. Last 10: 2-8.
HEAT CHECKCIN @ MIL
Elly De La Cruz: 1.338 OPS in Last 15 Days
Elly De La Cruz has a 1.338 OPS over the last 15 days and 51 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.465 increase from his .873 season baseline.
COOLING OFFLAA @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .350 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams has a .350 OPS over the last 15 days and 51 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.476 drop from his .826 season OPS.
STREAKLAD @ MIA
LAD have won 7 straight
7 wins in a row for LAD, a +23 run margin across the streak — they come in 8-2 over their last 10.
MISMATCHMIZ @ KU
KU's ground game against MIZ's — 277 rush yards a game to 205
Kansas averaged 277 rushing yards to Missouri’s 205, the matchup’s widest per-game gap, with each based on one game. The comparison favors KU’s ground production, but no Missouri run-defense split shows how that attack matches up.
HEAT CHECKSD @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.323 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 AB: a 1.323 OPS versus .858 for the season, 0.465 above his norm. He has 35 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
PLATOON EDGECIN @ MIL
Hector Rodriguez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Hector Rodriguez's vs. Right line (.880 OPS, 66 AB) sits well above his .536 mark the other way (28 AB). Tonight's starter Dustin May throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ MIN
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Taj Bradley (RHP), batting 6th
Nathaniel Lowe carries a .848 OPS vs. Right (311 AB) against .288 the other way (40 AB), and faces RHP Taj Bradley from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
TEAM RECORDSEA @ OAK
Athletics 2-6 in Jeffrey Springs's last 8 starts
Athletics are 2-6 in Jeffrey Springs's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HEAT CHECKKC @ BOS
Carter Jensen: 1.193 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carter Jensen has a 1.193 OPS over the last 15 days and 48 at-bats. That is 0.432 above his .761 season mark.
HEAT CHECKCHW @ STL
Thomas Saggese: 1.361 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thomas Saggese has a 1.361 OPS over the last 15 days and 33 at-bats. The supplied swing from his .766 season baseline is 0.596.
HEAT CHECKSEA @ OAK
Cal Raleigh: 1.141 OPS in Last 15 Days
Cal Raleigh has a 1.141 OPS over the last 15 days and 43 at-bats. That is 0.47 above his .671 season OPS.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ WSH
Nationals 6-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 8 starts
The Nationals are 6-2 in Cade Cavalli’s last 8 starts this season. Cavalli starts tonight at home against the Angels.
TEAM RECORDNYM @ NYY
Yankees 6-2 in Carlos Rodon's last 8 starts
The Yankees are 6-2 in Carlos Rodon’s last 8 starts this season. Rodon starts tonight at home against the Mets.
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ ATL
Braves are 7-3 vs Phillies this season
Atlanta is 7-3 against Philadelphia across 10 meetings this season, though Philadelphia won the last one 1-0. The prior venues and pitchers are not supplied, limiting what the series says about tonight in Atlanta.
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ MIL
Brewers are 7-3 vs Reds this season
Milwaukee is 7-3 against Cincinnati across 10 meetings this season, though Cincinnati won the last one 12-8. The prior venues and pitchers are not supplied, limiting what the series says about tonight in Milwaukee.
REPLACEMENTRUTG @ BC
Dylan Lonergan (QB) is questionable for RUTG
Rutgers QB Dylan Lonergan had not practiced this week after an unspecified injury against UMass, per NJ Advance Media on Sep. 8. QUESTIONABLE may overstate his likely role against Boston College because the report said he might dress only for an emergency.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ WSH
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Brady House's vs. Left line (.951 OPS, 85 AB) sits well above his .594 mark the other way (200 AB). Tonight's starter Yusei Kikuchi throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
TEAM RECORDPIT @ CHC
Cubs 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts
The Cubs are 6-2 in Shota Imanaga’s last 8 starts this season. Imanaga starts tonight at home against Pittsburgh.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ STL
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.982 OPS, 141 AB) sits well above his .664 mark the other way (78 AB). Tonight's starter Matthew Liberatore throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAT CHECKLAD @ MIA
Teoscar Hernandez: 1.177 OPS in Last 15 Days
Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.177 OPS over the last 15 days and 47 at-bats. That is 0.416 above his .761 season mark.
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ TB
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Miguel Ullola (RHP)
Over 347 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .897 OPS versus .503 in 95 AB the other way. He sees RHP Miguel Ullola tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ NYY
Mark Vientos (bats R) hits 4th against Carlos Rodon (LHP)
Over 98 AB vs. Left, Mark Vientos owns a .899 OPS versus .520 in 151 AB the other way. He sees LHP Carlos Rodon tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ WSH
Wade Meckler (bats L) hits 3rd against Cade Cavalli (RHP)
Over 209 AB vs. Right, Wade Meckler owns a .805 OPS versus .482 in 33 AB the other way. He sees RHP Cade Cavalli tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
COOLING OFFCHW @ STL
Munetaka Murakami: .459 OPS in Last 15 Days
Munetaka Murakami has a .459 OPS over the last 15 days and 48 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.369 drop from his .828 season OPS.
STREAKKC @ BOS
KC games have gone UNDER 5 straight
The under has cashed 5 in a row in KC games: 7.6 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
HEAT CHECKLAA @ WSH
Daylen Lile: 1.136 OPS in Last 15 Days
Daylen Lile has a 1.136 OPS over the last 15 days and 46 at-bats. The supplied swing from his .737 season baseline is 0.399.
COOLING OFFCOL @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .356 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dillon Dingler has a .356 OPS over the last 15 days and 44 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.406 decline from his .762 season OPS.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
COOLING OFFPHI @ ATL
Matt Olson: .483 OPS in Last 15 Days
Matt Olson has a .483 OPS over the last 15 days and 54 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.342 drop from his .825 season OPS.
STARTER FORMCHW @ STL
Matthew Liberatore: 10.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
Matthew Liberatore has allowed 16 earned runs in 14 innings across his last 3 starts, with a 10.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Those marks exceed his 5.57 season ERA and 1.47 WHIP entering CHW at STL.
STARTER FORMCHW @ STL
Anthony Kay: 9.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
Anthony Kay has a 9.22 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over 13.2 innings across his last 3 starts. Both exceed his 4.47 season ERA and 1.36 WHIP entering CHW at STL.
COOLING OFFSEA @ OAK
Julio Rodriguez: .375 OPS in Last 15 Days
Julio Rodriguez has a .375 OPS over the last 15 days and 55 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.318 decline from his .693 season OPS.
HEAT CHECKCOL @ DET
TJ Rumfield: 1.243 OPS in Last 15 Days
TJ Rumfield has a 1.243 OPS over the last 15 days and 43 at-bats. That is 0.397 above his .846 season OPS.
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ BOS
Red Sox are 3-0 vs Royals this season
Boston is 3-0 against Kansas City across three meetings this season and won the latest 4-3. No prior venues or pitchers are supplied, so the small sample does not explain tonight’s matchup in Boston.
COOLING OFFLAA @ WSH
Jose Siri: .131 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jose Siri has a .131 OPS over the last 15 days and 29 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.546 drop from his .677 season OPS.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ STL
Chase Meidroth (bats R) hits 1st against Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
Over 136 AB vs. Left, Chase Meidroth owns a .912 OPS versus .671 in 374 AB the other way. He sees LHP Matthew Liberatore tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
PLATOON EDGEKC @ BOS
Roman Anthony (bats L) draws Seth Lugo (RHP), batting 1st
Roman Anthony carries a .787 OPS vs. Right (106 AB) against .547 the other way (46 AB), and faces RHP Seth Lugo from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
HEAT CHECKLAD @ MIA
Mookie Betts: 1.061 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.061 OPS spans the last 15 days (49 AB) against a .742 season baseline, a 0.319 swing. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
STARTER FORMCIN @ MIL
Andrew Abbott: 8.31 ERA over his last 3 starts
Andrew Abbott has an 8.31 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over 13 innings across his last 3 starts. Both exceed his 4.43 season ERA and 1.42 WHIP entering CIN at MIL.
COOLING OFFBAL @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .380 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ernie Clement has a .380 OPS over the last 15 days and 49 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.302 drop from his .682 season OPS.
HR THREATDodgers @ Marlins
Mookie Betts
Gary's Take Betts is running the hottest bat on this roster right now. He's hitting .375 with a 1.224 OPS in September with three home runs in just 32 at-bats, and over his last 15 games he's 17-for-49 with three homers and a 1.061 OPS.
COOLING OFFTEX @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .422 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
Corbin Carroll's .422 OPS over the last 15 days (41 AB) trails his .800 season mark, down 0.378. Tonight he draws LHP MacKenzie Gore — his stronger side: a .942 OPS vs LHP across 168 AB.
COOLING OFFCOL @ DET
Hunter Goodman: .507 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Framber Valdez
Hunter Goodman's .507 OPS over the last 15 days (47 AB) trails his .833 season mark, down 0.326. Tonight he draws LHP Framber Valdez — his stronger side: a .856 OPS vs LHP across 152 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKCOL @ DET
COL have lost 4 straight
Colorado Rockies have dropped 4 straight, outscored by 16 runs over the skid; 3-7 across their last 10.
P team lost 2-6
STARTER FORMKC @ BOS
Seth Lugo: 8.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
Seth Lugo has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.2 innings across his last 3 starts, producing an 8.56 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. Those marks exceed his 5.04 season ERA and 1.44 WHIP entering KC at BOS.
TRENCHESMIZ @ KU
KU's front holds runners to 54 fewer yards per game
Through 2026-09-10, KU allowed 35 rushing yards per game over 1 game, 54 fewer than MIZ’s 89 over 1 game. Opponent identity and rushing approach are not supplied, limiting any schedule-adjusted comparison.
TURNOVERSMIZ @ KU
KU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
Through 2026-09-10, KU recorded 1 takeaway per game over 1 game, while MIZ recorded 0 over 1 game. With no opponent or game-script context supplied, the difference cannot establish either defense’s underlying quality.
STARTER FORMBAL @ TOR
Max Scherzer: 2.55 ERA over his last 3 starts
Max Scherzer has a 2.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in 17.2 innings across his last 3 starts. His recent ERA and WHIP are below his 6.03 season ERA and 1.36 season WHIP entering BAL at TOR.
COOLING OFFCHW @ STL
Alec Burleson: .570 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alec Burleson has a .570 OPS over the last 15 days and 55 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.246 drop from his .816 season OPS.
STREAKNYM @ NYY
NYM have won 4 straight
NYM have taken 4 straight and own a +10 run differential over the run. Last 10: 7-3.
STREAKCLE @ MIN
MIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for MIN — their games are producing only 8.5 runs against numbers around 9.3. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
HEAT CHECKPHI @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.049 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 1.049 OPS over the last 15 days and 50 at-bats. That is 0.269 above his .780 season OPS.
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Cardinals
Joshua Baez
Gary's Take Seven home runs in 84 at-bats this season, and five of those seven have come in just 35 at-bats against left-handed pitching — a 1.059 OPS split that's about as extreme as this roster offers. Kay throws left-handed, and Kay is precisely the pitcher a right-handed slugger wants to see: righties are hitting .287 with an .868 OPS against him, and 18 of the 20 homers he's allowed this season have come from that side of the plate.
REGRESSIONSD @ SF
Jonah Cox: .277 AVG vs .197 xBA
Jonah Cox is hitting .277 against a .197 expected average (xBA) over 104 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .338 against a .256 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
COOLING OFFNYM @ NYY
Carson Benge: .501 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Carlos Rodon
Carson Benge's .501 OPS over the last 15 days (50 AB) trails his .744 season mark, down 0.243. Tonight he draws LHP Carlos Rodon — his weaker side: a .722 OPS vs LHP across 141 AB.
HEAT CHECKKC @ BOS
Mickey Gasper: 1.247 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (33 AB) he is at a 1.247 OPS, up 0.392 on his .855 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
HR THREATAstros @ Rays
Victor Mesa Jr.
Gary's Take Mesa Jr. has gone deep in back-to-back games, off López on Wednesday and off Iglesias on Thursday, and he's posted an OPS over 1.000 across his last two weeks at the plate.
P 1 HR — 1-for-2, 4 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATRockies @ Tigers
Riley Greene
Gary's Take Greene is the home-run look I want from Detroit. He has three homers in his last seven days, carries an .855 OPS against right-handed pitching and draws Mason Adams, who has allowed four homers in only 13.2 major-league innings.
P 0 HR — 3-for-4, 6 TB
COVERAGERUTG @ BC
RUTG gets off the field on third down 13.6% more often
Through 2026-09-10, RUTG allowed a 36.4% third-down rate over 1 game, compared with BC’s 50% over 1 game. The opponents and third-down situations are not supplied, so the 13.6-point gap is not schedule-adjusted.
HEAT CHECKPIT @ CHC
Alex Bregman: 1.007 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.007 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 AB) against a .789 season baseline, a 0.218 swing. He has 24 home runs on the season. His hits line tonight: 3.5.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
HR THREATRoyals @ Red Sox
Carter Jensen
Gary's Take Jensen is the Royals’ hottest power bat, with three homers in his last seven games and five in his last 15. He gets a right-handed starter in Sonny Gray, and Fenway’s short right-field line gives a left-handed hitter a favorable target.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ MIN
Twins are 6-4 vs Guardians this season
Minnesota is 6-4 against Cleveland across 10 meetings this season and won the latest 3-1. The prior venues and pitchers are not supplied, limiting what the record says about tonight in Minnesota.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ SF
Padres are 6-4 vs Giants this season
San Diego is 6-4 against San Francisco across 10 meetings this season and won the latest 5-4. The prior venues and pitchers are not supplied, limiting what the record says about tonight in San Francisco.
REPLACEMENTRUTG @ BC
Will Graves III (WR) is questionable for BC
BC WR Will Graves III was listed QUESTIONABLE for Rutgers with an undisclosed injury, per VSiN on Sep. 10. The designation puts an offensive player in doubt, but the report gives no practice detail or replacement plan.
REPLACEMENTRUTG @ BC
Bryce Dopson (WR) is questionable for BC
BC WR Bryce Dopson was listed QUESTIONABLE for Rutgers with an undisclosed injury, per VSiN on Sep. 10. The designation puts an offensive player in doubt, but the report gives no practice detail or replacement plan.
REPLACEMENTMIZ @ KU
Cam Pickett (WR) is questionable for KU
Kansas WR Cam Pickett was a game-time decision with a leg injury after missing the LIU game, per ESPN/Pete Thamel on Sep. 9. His QUESTIONABLE status leaves an offensive role unresolved close to the Missouri matchup, with no replacement identified.
NEXT SLATENFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 13
BDL lists 13 NFL games on the next slate. All 13 kickoff times are confirmed.
BATTER VS ARMPHI @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr. vs Aaron Nola: .328
Ronald Acuna Jr.'s career line off Aaron Nola is 19-for-58, a .328 average over 58 at-bats with 4 home runs — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.049 OPS, L15).
COOLING OFFPHI @ ATL
Luis Arraez: .563 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Chris Sale
Luis Arraez's .563 OPS over the last 15 days (46 AB) trails his .780 season mark, down 0.217. Tonight he draws LHP Chris Sale — his weaker side: a .757 OPS vs LHP across 165 AB.
STARTER FORMTEX @ ARI
MacKenzie Gore: 7.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12 IP) he has been tagged for 10 earned runs — a 7.50 ERA with a 2.58 WHIP (1.33 season) against a 4.51 season mark.
HR THREATPirates @ Cubs
Alex Bregman
Gary's Take This is the long shot, but Bregman is the Cubs hitter I want against Dotel. Bregman has five homers in his last 15 games, and Dotel is making his first major-league start after working primarily in relief.
P 1 HR — 3-for-4, 7 TB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ MIL
Hector Rodriguez: .960 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 53 AB: a .960 OPS versus .750 for the season, 0.21 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
SITUATIONALRUTG @ BC
BC converts third downs at a +12.7% clip
BC converted 40% of third downs to RUTG’s 27.3%, a +12.7% gap over 1 current-2026 game through 2026-09-10. BC sustained third downs at the better rate, but the number of attempts is not supplied and one game can make conversion rates volatile.
STARTER FORMPHI @ ATL
Aaron Nola: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Aaron Nola has allowed 4 earned runs with 16 strikeouts in 18 innings across his last 3 starts. His 2.00 ERA in that span is 2.76 runs below his 4.76 season ERA entering PHI at ATL.
BATTER VS ARMPHI @ ATL
Matt Olson vs Aaron Nola: .257
In 35 career at-bats against Aaron Nola, Matt Olson is 9-for-35 for a 1.022 OPS (9 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters cold (.483 OPS, L15).
REGRESSIONBAL @ TOR
Brett Bateman: .327 AVG vs .266 xBA
Brett Bateman's .327 average comes against a .266 expected (xBA) on 129 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .351 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
AFTER GARYRUTG @ BC
RUTG +3.5 → +2.5
FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
PACE & SCRIPTMIZ @ KU
KU's defense gives up 8 fewer points per game
MIZ is at 14 points allowed per game over 1 game; KU is at 6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
SITUATIONALMIZ @ KU
MIZ converts fourth downs at a +33.3% clip
MIZ converted 100% of fourth downs to KU’s 66.7%, a +33.3% gap over 1 current-2026 game through 2026-09-10. Attempt totals are not supplied, so the percentages show execution in that game without establishing a dependable fourth-down identity.
QUARTERBACKMIZ @ KU
Austin Simmons leads MIZ's passing this season
Austin Simmons has produced 252 passing yards at 13.26 yards per attempt for Missouri in 2026, completing 89.5% with a 4-0 TD-INT line over 1 game. That opening line combines efficiency with ball security; no Kansas defensive comparison is supplied.
QUARTERBACKMIZ @ KU
Isaiah Marshall leads KU's passing this season
Isaiah Marshall has 246 passing yards at 12.95 yards per attempt for Kansas in 2026, completing 73.7% with a 2-0 TD-INT line over 1 game. That opening line shows efficiency without an interception; no Missouri defensive comparison is supplied.
COACHINGMIZ @ KU
MIZ gives away 25 fewer penalty yards per game
MIZ is at 35 penalty yards per game over 1 game; KU is at 60 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
REGRESSIONHOU @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .259 xBA
Chandler Simpson is hitting .308 against a .259 expected average (xBA) over 561 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .307 against a .264 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/11
Jake Fraley
Fraley is on Tampa Bay’s 60-day IL with a groin injury. His listed return date is today, but managers shouldn’t treat that as a promise. A .690 OPS isn’t enough for me to reserve a late-season roster spot. LEAVE ON THE WIRE
FIRST INNINGLAA @ WSH
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of LAA @ WSH
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 2 of 10 sampled WSH games and 2 of 10 sampled LAA games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Cade Cavalli: 2.10 ERA, .225 opponent AVG across 30.0 IP, 1 HR; Yusei Kikuchi: 2.70 ERA, .194 opponent AVG across 10.0 IP, 1 HR.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a rib injury. His listed return date is today, but that’s a roster listing, not a guarantee. The 3.18 ERA keeps him interesting, though a reliever needs a clear fantasy role to justify precious September space. WATCH, DON’T STASH
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/11
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is on Arizona’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. He’s listed for today, but that doesn’t promise activation. With a 4.97 ERA, I’m not holding a season-long roster spot while waiting. LEAVE ON THE WIRE
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/11
Lucas Giolito
Giolito is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. Today is only his listed return date, not a confirmed return. A 5.16 ERA gives me no reason to absorb the uncertainty. DO NOT STASH
PACE & SCRIPTRUTG @ BC
RUTG is scoring +6 points per game
RUTG is at 21 points per game over 1 game; BC is at 15 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
BALLPARKCLE @ MIN
At Target Field, Taj Bradley pitches to a 2.84 ERA
Taj Bradley has a 2.84 ERA over 69.2 innings in 11 games at Target Field, where hitters have batted .190 against him, versus a 4.82 ERA across 89.2 innings elsewhere. No park-wide comparison is supplied to isolate the venue’s effect.
REGRESSIONCIN @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn: .309 AVG vs .265 xBA
Across 317 plate appearances, Andrew Vaughn carries a .309 average versus a .265 xBA. His wOBA sits at .373 against a .332 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
PARK WEATHERCIN @ MIL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at American Family Field tonight
Conditions at American Family Field: Clear, 73°, wind 10 mph, In From CF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 8.
SITUATIONALRUTG @ BC
RUTG moves the chains 4 more times per game
RUTG is at 18 first downs per game over 1 game; BC is at 14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
AFTER GARYMIZ @ KU
KU +4.5 → +4.5
FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
BALLPARKTEX @ ARI
Merrill Kelly owns a 6.10 ERA at Chase Field — 4.36 everywhere else
Across 11 games (59.0 IP) at Chase Field, Merrill Kelly has a 6.10 ERA against 4.36 at his other parks (88.2 IP). Hitters bat .287 off him here.
REGRESSIONLAA @ WSH
Wade Meckler: .298 AVG vs .261 xBA
Across 273 plate appearances, Wade Meckler carries a .298 average versus a .261 xBA. His wOBA sits at .342 against a .315 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
REGRESSIONPHI @ ATL
Edmundo Sosa: .238 AVG vs .277 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .238 average comes against a .277 expected (xBA) on 233 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .294 against a .330 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
HEAD-TO-HEADHOU @ TB
Astros are 2-1 vs Rays this season
Houston is 2-1 against Tampa Bay across three meetings this season and won the latest 2-0. No prior venues or pitchers are supplied, so the small sample offers little explanation for tonight in Tampa Bay.
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ TOR
Blue Jays are 4-3 vs Orioles this season
Toronto is 4-3 against Baltimore across seven meetings this season and won the latest 6-4. No prior venues or pitchers are supplied, so the narrow series edge does not explain tonight in Toronto.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYM @ NYY
Mets are 2-1 vs Yankees this season
The Mets are 2-1 against the Yankees across three meetings this season, including a 7-6 win last time. The prior venues and pitchers are not supplied, so the small sample does not explain tonight at the Yankees.
COVERAGEMIZ @ KU
KU gets off the field on third down 7.7% more often
Through 2026-09-10, KU allowed a 15.4% third-down rate over 1 game, compared with MIZ’s 23.1% over 1 game. The opponents and third-down situations are not supplied, so the 7.7-point gap remains a one-game comparison.
COACHINGMIZ @ KU
KU's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
MIZ is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; KU is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
SITUATIONALMIZ @ KU
MIZ moves the chains 4 more times per game
MIZ is at 33 first downs per game over 1 game; KU is at 29 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
FIRST INNINGCIN @ MIL
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CIN @ MIL
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 7 of 10 sampled MIL games and 8 of 10 sampled CIN games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Dustin May: 6.10 ERA, .231 opponent AVG across 20.2 IP, 3 HR; Andrew Abbott: 6.83 ERA, .284 opponent AVG across 29.0 IP, 8 HR.
SITUATIONALRUTG @ BC
BC converts fourth downs at a +20% clip
RUTG is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; BC is at 100% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ OAK
Julio Rodriguez vs Jeffrey Springs: .286
Julio Rodriguez's career line off Jeffrey Springs is 4-for-14, a .286 average over 14 at-bats with 2 home runs — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.474 OPS, L15).
REGRESSIONLAD @ MIA
Will Smith: .240 AVG vs .271 xBA
Across 230 plate appearances, Will Smith carries a .240 average versus a .271 xBA. His wOBA sits at .320 against a .382 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
SITUATIONALLAD @ MIA
No off day for LAD in 9 days
The Dodgers enter tonight at Miami without an off day in 9 days. Miami had yesterday off, giving the teams different rest schedules for this matchup.
RUNNING GAMECLE @ MIN
Green light: Cleveland Guardians run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 13%
Cleveland Guardians steal 0.9 bags a game (133 on the season) and Ryan Jeffers has thrown out 7 of 55 runners (13%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
REGRESSIONCOL @ DET
Detroit Tigers are 14-27 in one-run games (.341 win rate)
Detroit Tigers are 14-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (41 completed games). They are 53-52 in their other 105 completed games.
REGRESSIONLAD @ MIA
Javier Sanoja: .292 AVG vs .270 xBA
Javier Sanoja's .292 average comes against a .270 expected (xBA) on 427 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .336 against a .292 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ BOS
Kansas City Royals like to run — Adley Rutschman (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Adley Rutschman owns a 35% caught-stealing rate (18 of 52) and Kansas City Royals run anyway — 0.8 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ BOS
Boston Red Sox like to run — Carter Jensen (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 35% caught-stealing rate (17 of 48) and Boston Red Sox run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
REPLACEMENTMIZ @ KU
Cayden Green (OL) is probable for MIZ
Missouri OL Cayden Green returned to practice after an undisclosed injury and was expected to play against Kansas, per On3/Pete Nakos on Sep. 9. His PROBABLE designation therefore points toward the offensive lineman being available.
FIRST INNINGTEX @ ARI
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
ARI scored in the first inning in 0 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Merrill Kelly: 4.50 ERA, .287 opponent AVG across 26.0 IP, 3 HR; MacKenzie Gore: 3.90 ERA, .230 opponent AVG across 30.0 IP, 5 HR.
RUNNING GAMECIN @ MIL
Cincinnati Reds like to run — William Contreras (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (23 of 69) and Cincinnati Reds run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
SITUATIONALRUTG @ BC
RUTG has 2 more days of rest
RUTG enters with 8 days since its last game, compared with 6 days for BC. That gives RUTG a 2-day rest advantage in the matchup at BC.
FIRST INNINGCHW @ STL
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
STL scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Matthew Liberatore: 5.79 ERA, .280 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 6 HR; Anthony Kay: 3.33 ERA, .257 opponent AVG across 27.0 IP, 3 HR.
SITUATIONALMIZ @ KU
No. 23 Missouri at Kansas
Missouri enters at No. 23 in the AP poll with a 1-0 record, 182 points and a two-place rise, while Kansas is unranked. That establishes the poll’s respect gap, but the supplied facts do not show whether Missouri’s ranking was earned this season or inherited.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/18
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and a listed return date seven days away. There’s no season line to weigh, and the date alone guarantees nothing. I’d keep him on the watchlist instead of spending a roster spot. WATCHLIST ONLY
HEAD-TO-HEADMIZ @ KU
MIZ lead the series with KU since 2025
MIZ leads the series with KU since 2025 at 1-0, taking the only meeting 42-31 at home on Sep. 6, 2025. This matchup shifts to KU, but no facts were supplied on what has changed for either side.
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 9/21
Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle is on Baltimore’s 60-day IL with an oblique injury. His listed return date is 10 days away, not a promised activation. With a .690 OPS, he’s only worth holding if your IL spot costs you nothing. IL-ONLY STASH

Graded results

Games

L
Pirates +1.5 -126
MLB · 2-12
W
Tigers -1.5 +118
MLB · 2-6
W
Rays -1.5 +110
MLB · 1-3
L
Angels ML +132
MLB · 3-4
L
Red Sox -1.5 +102
MLB · 3-2
L
Mets ML +110
MLB · 4-6
W
Dodgers -1.5 -108
MLB · 6-2
W
Orioles ML +114
MLB · 7-4

Props

W
Adael Amador · over
Rockies @ Tigers · Actual 2
W
Alex Bregman · over
Pirates @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Anthony Volpe · over
Mets @ Yankees · Actual 2
L
Blake Snell · under
Dodgers @ Marlins · Actual 8
W
Brett Bateman · over
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 2
L
Carter Jensen · over
Royals @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Chandler Simpson · over
Astros @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Jacob Young · over
Angels @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Jeremy Pena · over
Astros @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Mark Vientos · over
Mets @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Max Scherzer · under
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 3
L
Mookie Betts · over
Dodgers @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Nolan McLean · under
Mets @ Yankees · Actual 5
W
Oneil Cruz · over
Pirates @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Otto Lopez · over
Dodgers @ Marlins · Actual 4
L
Pete Alonso · over
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Riley Greene · over
Rockies @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Shota Imanaga · under
Pirates @ Cubs · Actual 4
L
Sonny Gray · under
Royals @ Red Sox · Actual 3
W
Troy Johnston · over
Rockies @ Tigers · Actual 1
W
Victor Mesa Jr. · over
Astros @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Wilyer Abreu · under
Royals @ Red Sox · Actual 1
L
Yohandy Morales · over
Angels @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Yohandy Morales · over
Angels @ Nationals · Actual 1