Reds at Brewers

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  ELLY DE LA CRUZHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBCincinnati Reds· -187

  7:40 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Elly De La Cruz has a hit in fourteen of his last fifteen games, and right now a bare single is about as safe a number as this board offers. He's hitting .500 with five home runs over the last week and .484 for the month of September, the kind of stretch that turns even a tough platoon matchup into an afterthought. Even on the weaker side of his split, the one he hits from against a right-hander tonight, he's still sitting on sixteen home runs and a .792 OPS for the year, and he comes to the plate more than anyone else in this lineup at close to five trips a night. The only way this misses is a completely empty night at the plate, and nothing from the last month says that's coming.

  ×

  Elly De La Cruz
  Hits over 0.5

  -187 · 7:40 PM ET

  Cincinnati Reds

  Read Gary’s Take

  Elly De La Cruz has a hit in fourteen of his last fifteen games, and right now a bare single is about as safe a number as this board offers. He's hitting .500 with five home runs over the last week and .484 for the month of September, the kind of stretch that turns even a tough platoon matchup into an afterthought. Even on the weaker side of his split, the one he hits from against a right-hander tonight, he's still sitting on sixteen home runs and a .792 OPS for the year, and he comes to the plate more than anyone else in this lineup at close to five trips a night.

  The only way this misses is a completely empty night at the plate, and nothing from the last month says that's coming.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  ANDREW ABBOTTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBCincinnati Reds· -133

  7:40 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Abbott has walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and it isn't noise — his control has genuinely eroded as the year has gone on, with a 2.4-walk-per-start rate over a full season's worth of turns. He leans on his four-seamer nearly half the time and it's getting hit to the tune of a .386 expected average, which means once he starts missing spots he tends to nibble rather than challenge, and Milwaukee has the lineup to make him pay for it. Turang and Bauers alone have drawn 167 walks between them this year, and neither one chases. The one recent clean outing came against this same Brewers team, when a long rain delay held him to four innings and he escaped without a walk. That was the weather doing the work, not sharper command. Under clear skies tonight he gets a normal turn, and a normal turn from this version of Abbott means at least two free passes.

  ×

  Andrew Abbott
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  -133 · 7:40 PM ET

  Cincinnati Reds

  Read Gary’s Take

  Abbott has walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and it isn't noise — his control has genuinely eroded as the year has gone on, with a 2.4-walk-per-start rate over a full season's worth of turns. He leans on his four-seamer nearly half the time and it's getting hit to the tune of a .386 expected average, which means once he starts missing spots he tends to nibble rather than challenge, and Milwaukee has the lineup to make him pay for it. Turang and Bauers alone have drawn 167 walks between them this year, and neither one chases.

  The one recent clean outing came against this same Brewers team, when a long rain delay held him to four innings and he escaped without a walk. That was the weather doing the work, not sharper command. Under clear skies tonight he gets a normal turn, and a normal turn from this version of Abbott means at least two free passes.

• THE LONG SHOT

  

  EUGENIO SUAREZHR OVER 0.5

  MLBCincinnati Reds· +660

  7:40 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Eugenio Suarez is built to hit this exact number — twenty-two home runs against a .208 average tells you the profile, all or nothing, and right now he's running hot on the power side. Four homers in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week alone with a 1.028 OPS to go with it. He also has a track record against tonight's starter specifically, five hits in eleven career at-bats against Dustin May with one clearing the fence, and May leans on a mid-90s four-seamer and cutter for roughly half his pitches, exactly the kind of velocity a right-handed pull hitter can turn around at American Family Field, one of the friendlier parks in the league for it. This is a long shot and it will miss more often than not, but a hot power stretch against a pitcher he's already hit for extra bases makes this the one worth taking off the board tonight.

  ×

  Eugenio Suarez
  HR over 0.5

  +660 · 7:40 PM ET

  Cincinnati Reds

  Read Gary’s Take

  Eugenio Suarez is built to hit this exact number — twenty-two home runs against a .208 average tells you the profile, all or nothing, and right now he's running hot on the power side. Four homers in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week alone with a 1.028 OPS to go with it. He also has a track record against tonight's starter specifically, five hits in eleven career at-bats against Dustin May with one clearing the fence, and May leans on a mid-90s four-seamer and cutter for roughly half his pitches, exactly the kind of velocity a right-handed pull hitter can turn around at American Family Field, one of the friendlier parks in the league for it.

  This is a long shot and it will miss more often than not, but a hot power stretch against a pitcher he's already hit for extra bases makes this the one worth taking off the board tonight.