Pirates at Cubs
O/U 14.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pirates +1.5 -126
- Published odds
- -126
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 2-12
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANDUEL · 7 moves| Market | Opened Sep 11 5:00 AM | Close Sep 11 1:50 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | Cubs -1.5 (+112) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-102) | 8.5 (-104) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Cubs -184 | Cubs -190 | −6 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 11 5:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | 8.5 (-102) | Cubs -184 · Pirates +154 |
| Sep 11 6:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+112) | 8.5 (+106) | Cubs -198 · Pirates +166 |
| Sep 11 7:15 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+115) | 8.5 (+108) | Cubs -198 · Pirates +166 |
| Sep 11 9:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+106) | 8.5 (+108) | Cubs -200 · Pirates +168 |
| Sep 11 11:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 8.5 (+100) | Cubs -190 · Pirates +160 |
| Sep 11 12:03 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+105) | 8.5 (+100) | Cubs -190 · Pirates +160 |
| Sep 11 12:14 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+106) | 8.5 (+100) | Cubs -190 · Pirates +160 |
| CLOSESep 11 1:50 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+112) | 8.5 (-104) | Cubs -190 · Pirates +160 |
The read
Chicago has the starting-pitching advantage, but I’m backing Pittsburgh to stay within the run line. Imanaga threw six scoreless innings in each of his two starts against the Pirates this season, yet the Cubs went 1-1 in those games. That captures the distinction here: a strong outing from Chicago’s starter does not necessarily produce the separation this ticket needs to lose.
The Cubs’ offense makes that separation harder to trust. Today’s starting nine hit .229 over the last seven days. Their last-10 scoring average of 5.5 runs per game also includes a 17-run outburst; outside that game, they averaged 4.2. Pittsburgh’s pitching has been the stronger part of its recent run, with its bullpen posting a 2.35 ERA over the last seven days. Chicago’s late innings offer Pittsburgh another route to stay close: Webb surrendered a tying homer while protecting a ninth-inning lead against Milwaukee, and Zeferjahn allowed both inherited runners to score in the preceding game.
The biggest risk is Pittsburgh’s pitching arrangement. Dotel is making his first MLB start, and Montgomery and Weaver have pitched on consecutive days. I’m not assuming another appearance from either. But Soto, Mlodzinski and Ramírez did not pitch yesterday, giving Pittsburgh alternatives behind Dotel. His .539 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is encouraging against Chicago’s left-handed and switch-hitting bats, although that rests on just 65 at-bats.
Imanaga can control this matchup again, but his 4.23 home ERA and uneven recent starts leave room for Pittsburgh to score. With Chicago’s lineup struggling collectively and its late leads proving vulnerable, the extra run is the deciding factor. This is a measured play, not a bet that Pittsburgh’s winning streak simply continues.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Alex Bregman: 1.007 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.007That 1.007 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 AB) against a .789 season baseline, a 0.218 swing. He has 24 home runs on the season. His hits line tonight: 3.5.
HR THREAT
Alex Bregman
+700Gary's Take This is the long shot, but Bregman is the Cubs hitter I want against Dotel. Bregman has five homers in his last 15 games, and Dotel is making his first major-league start after working primarily in relief.
TEAM RECORD
Cubs 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts
6-2The Cubs are 6-2 in Shota Imanaga’s last 8 starts this season. Imanaga starts tonight at home against Pittsburgh.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 11, 2026 at 12:13 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, draftkings, caesars, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKSHOTA IMANAGAK'S UNDER 6.5
Imanaga has cleared this number only once in his last eight starts, and he has averaged 5.4 strikeouts per start this season. Pittsburgh’s lineup does carry swing-and-miss risk, but Imanaga’s recent strikeout totals have stayed below this number even when he has worked deep. I’m asking for seven strikeouts from a pitcher whose recent results point more toward five or six.
- GARY'S PICKONEIL CRUZHITS OVER 0.5
Cruz is coming off a three-hit performance and has hit .301 against left-handed pitching this season. He is also seeing the ball well in September, batting .346 through his first 26 at-bats. Imanaga has handled Pittsburgh before, but Cruz’s combination of current form, left-handed matchup success and premium contact gives him a strong chance to find at least one hit.
- THE LONG SHOTALEX BREGMANHR OVER 0.5
This is the long shot, but Bregman is the Cubs hitter I want against Dotel. Bregman has five homers in his last 15 games, and Dotel is making his first major-league start after working primarily in relief. His fastball is lively, but his overall contact profile leaves room for a mistake, and Bregman has the approach to punish one. At seven-to-one, the price makes this worth the swing.
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