Orioles at Blue Jays

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  MAX SCHERZERK'S UNDER 5.5

  MLBToronto Blue Jays· -140

  7:07 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Scherzer's strikeout numbers have fallen off a cliff and the line hasn't caught up. Over his last eight starts he has punched out 2, 10, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, and 4 hitters — one game over this total, and that one came against a Seattle lineup swinging out of its shoes in a start where he happened to go seven innings. Take that outlier away and he hasn't been within a strikeout of this number since June. His pitch counts explain why: 76, 97, 92, 73, 92, 84, 84, and 75 across that stretch, which caps him at four or five innings and somewhere around 20 to 24 hitters most nights. At his season rate of 26 strikeouts per 100 plate appearances, even a full workload barely clears 5.5, and he is not getting full workloads at 42 years old. The case against me is the lineup he's facing. Baltimore whiffs in bulk — Cowser is down on strikes more than a third of the time, Mayo is not far behind, and the group fans 9.26 times a game. If Scherzer is sharp early and Albernaz leaves his regulars in deep counts, this total is reachable. But reachable is different from likely against a pitcher who has cleared it once in eight tries and hasn't thrown more than 97 pitches in a start since April. I want the under.

  ×

  Max Scherzer
  K'S under 5.5

  -140 · 7:07 PM ET

  Toronto Blue Jays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Scherzer's strikeout numbers have fallen off a cliff and the line hasn't caught up. Over his last eight starts he has punched out 2, 10, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, and 4 hitters — one game over this total, and that one came against a Seattle lineup swinging out of its shoes in a start where he happened to go seven innings. Take that outlier away and he hasn't been within a strikeout of this number since June. His pitch counts explain why: 76, 97, 92, 73, 92, 84, 84, and 75 across that stretch, which caps him at four or five innings and somewhere around 20 to 24 hitters most nights. At his season rate of 26 strikeouts per 100 plate appearances, even a full workload barely clears 5.5, and he is not getting full workloads at 42 years old.

  The case against me is the lineup he's facing. Baltimore whiffs in bulk — Cowser is down on strikes more than a third of the time, Mayo is not far behind, and the group fans 9.26 times a game. If Scherzer is sharp early and Albernaz leaves his regulars in deep counts, this total is reachable. But reachable is different from likely against a pitcher who has cleared it once in eight tries and hasn't thrown more than 97 pitches in a start since April. I want the under.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  BRETT BATEMANSINGLES OVER 0.5

  MLBToronto Blue Jays· -150

  7:07 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Bateman leads off for Toronto hitting .327 on the season and .333 over his last fifteen days, and tonight he gets a pitcher with a real problem against hitters from his side of the plate. Bassitt has allowed a .902 OPS and 8 home runs in 202 at-bats to left-handed hitters this year, and his most-used pitch, the sinker he throws almost 38 percent of the time, is getting hit at a .336 clip. Bateman isn't trying to do damage — zero home runs in 113 at-bats — he's a contact bat who sprays singles, and he has recorded one in 10 of his last 15 games. That profile lines up well against a pitch Bassitt can't keep off barrels. There's a scheduling detail that helps too. Bassitt's ERA on the road this season is 6.43 against 3.55 at home, and tonight he's the visitor at Rogers Centre. He has thrown at least 5.1 innings in each of his last five starts, so he isn't getting an early hook — Bateman should see him multiple times. The risk is that a leadoff hitter's aggressive early-count approach sometimes turns a single into a long out instead, but with this average, this form, and this specific platoon weakness sitting across from him, I like the bat to find a hole.

  ×

  Brett Bateman
  Singles over 0.5

  -150 · 7:07 PM ET

  Toronto Blue Jays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Bateman leads off for Toronto hitting .327 on the season and .333 over his last fifteen days, and tonight he gets a pitcher with a real problem against hitters from his side of the plate. Bassitt has allowed a .902 OPS and 8 home runs in 202 at-bats to left-handed hitters this year, and his most-used pitch, the sinker he throws almost 38 percent of the time, is getting hit at a .336 clip. Bateman isn't trying to do damage — zero home runs in 113 at-bats — he's a contact bat who sprays singles, and he has recorded one in 10 of his last 15 games. That profile lines up well against a pitch Bassitt can't keep off barrels.

  There's a scheduling detail that helps too. Bassitt's ERA on the road this season is 6.43 against 3.55 at home, and tonight he's the visitor at Rogers Centre. He has thrown at least 5.1 innings in each of his last five starts, so he isn't getting an early hook — Bateman should see him multiple times. The risk is that a leadoff hitter's aggressive early-count approach sometimes turns a single into a long out instead, but with this average, this form, and this specific platoon weakness sitting across from him, I like the bat to find a hole.

• THE LONG SHOT

  

  PETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBBaltimore Orioles· +310

  7:07 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Alonso has 34 home runs this season and the split tells you where they came from — a .891 OPS and 25 of those 34 against right-handed pitching, roughly one every 15 at-bats when the arm on the mound throws from that side. Scherzer throws right-handed, and Scherzer has already given up 5 home runs in just 89 at-bats to right-handed hitters this year, a rate that outpaces most of the league. His ERA at Rogers Centre, tonight's park, is actually worse than his road number, 6.23 at home against 5.70 away, and his barrel rate allowed sits at 9.2 percent. When hitters connect against him, they are connecting well, and Alonso does his best connecting against exactly this kind of pitcher. The hesitation is recent form. Alonso is 9 for his last 48 with two homers over the past 15 days, a .657 OPS stretch that's cooler than his season line, and he's only 4 for 20 in his career against Scherzer with nothing to show for the power in that small sample. This isn't a hitter running hot into the matchup. But a home run prop doesn't need heat, it needs one mistake pitch in a hitter's zone, and the platoon math plus Scherzer's homer-prone history at this ballpark says the odds of that mistake finding Alonso's bat are live at this price.

  ×

  Pete Alonso
  HR over 0.5

  +310 · 7:07 PM ET

  Baltimore Orioles

  Read Gary’s Take

  Alonso has 34 home runs this season and the split tells you where they came from — a .891 OPS and 25 of those 34 against right-handed pitching, roughly one every 15 at-bats when the arm on the mound throws from that side. Scherzer throws right-handed, and Scherzer has already given up 5 home runs in just 89 at-bats to right-handed hitters this year, a rate that outpaces most of the league. His ERA at Rogers Centre, tonight's park, is actually worse than his road number, 6.23 at home against 5.70 away, and his barrel rate allowed sits at 9.2 percent. When hitters connect against him, they are connecting well, and Alonso does his best connecting against exactly this kind of pitcher.

  The hesitation is recent form. Alonso is 9 for his last 48 with two homers over the past 15 days, a .657 OPS stretch that's cooler than his season line, and he's only 4 for 20 in his career against Scherzer with nothing to show for the power in that small sample. This isn't a hitter running hot into the matchup. But a home run prop doesn't need heat, it needs one mistake pitch in a hitter's zone, and the platoon math plus Scherzer's homer-prone history at this ballpark says the odds of that mistake finding Alonso's bat are live at this price.