Sports Picks Archive — Saturday, September 12, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Kansas State· -110

Saturday morning in Manhattan brings together two new coaching staffs coming off very different debuts: Kansas State’s runaway opener and Washington State’s frustrating road loss. I’m taking the points because Washington State’s defensive performance gives it a credible way to keep this competitive while its offense finds enough footing. The Cougars held Washington to 10 points through three quarters and produced two fourth-down stops. That resistance mattered in a game where their offense failed to convert a third down and committed three turnovers. The defense gave them opportunities despite those problems. There is a specific offensive adjustment to build on. Moving the pocket and attacking the perimeter helped Caden Pinnick settle; he completed 12 of 16 passes for 103 yards after halftime. Daniel Blood supplied five catches for 57 yards. My judgment is that carrying those adjustments into the opening possessions gives Washington State a better chance to sustain drives and relieve its defense. Kansas State’s covering path is substantial. Rodney Fields Jr. rushed for 101 yards, Avery Johnson threw three touchdowns, and the offense converted 9 of 11 third downs against Nicholls. If that rushing and passing balance repeatedly leaves WSU chasing the game, the points can disappear. Washington State also allowed touchdown responses after both of its fourth-quarter scores last week, so defensive resistance alone will not carry this ticket. What tips me toward Washington State is its demonstrated ability to interrupt drives against Washington, paired with an identifiable offensive adjustment. Kansas State now faces a defensive front that generated documented edge pressure against FBS opposition. I expect that resistance to make sustained separation harder, and I’m backing Washington State to do enough offensively to stay inside this spread.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Oklahoma State· -105

Boone Pickens Stadium is sold out for Oklahoma State’s home opener, with Oregon arriving for an early kickoff in Stillwater. Both teams have an opener’s worth of mistakes to clean up. I’m laying the points because Oregon’s passing offense presents the clearest route to sustained separation. Dante Moore threw for 378 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against Boise State, and Oregon produced seven completions of at least 20 yards. Jeremiah McClellan and Dakorien Moore supplied explosive receiving production against a defense that Oregon repeatedly stretched. Oklahoma State now has to contain that attack after recording no sacks and allowing a 56-yard completion against Tulsa. My expectation is that Oregon can generate scoring opportunities without having to grind through repeated short-yardage situations. The opposite matchup makes those scores harder for Oklahoma State to answer. Drew Mestemaker completed 25 of 36 passes when kept clean against Tulsa, but went 4-of-13 under pressure and threw both interceptions in those situations. Oregon recorded three sacks in its opener. That does not guarantee another turnover-heavy afternoon, but it gives Oregon a specific way to disrupt the possessions Oklahoma State needs to stay inside this number. The Cowboys’ strongest argument is their ability to move the ball: 27 first downs against Tulsa, with Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young providing useful production. Better finishing could make this competitive against the spread. Oregon also outgained Boise State 497–274 and still won by only seven, so its penalties and failed fourth downs are a serious concern when laying 23.5. I give Oregon’s route more weight because it can create separation through explosive passing while attacking the protection problem that undermined Oklahoma State’s opener. The Cowboys need cleaner finishing and enough defensive containment to keep answering throughout the afternoon. I expect Oregon to interrupt that exchange often enough to cover.

Boone Pickens Stadium is sold out for Oklahoma State’s home opener, with Oregon arriving for an early kickoff in Stillwater. Both teams have an opener’s worth of mistakes to clean up.

I’m laying the points because Oregon’s passing offense presents the clearest route to sustained separation. Dante Moore threw for 378 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against Boise State, and Oregon produced seven completions of at least 20 yards. Jeremiah McClellan and Dakorien Moore supplied explosive receiving production against a defense that Oregon repeatedly stretched. Oklahoma State now has to contain that attack after recording no sacks and allowing a 56-yard completion against Tulsa. My expectation is that Oregon can generate scoring opportunities without having to grind through repeated short-yardage situations.

The opposite matchup makes those scores harder for Oklahoma State to answer. Drew Mestemaker completed 25 of 36 passes when kept clean against Tulsa, but went 4-of-13 under pressure and threw both interceptions in those situations. Oregon recorded three sacks in its opener. That does not guarantee another turnover-heavy afternoon, but it gives Oregon a specific way to disrupt the possessions Oklahoma State needs to stay inside this number.

The Cowboys’ strongest argument is their ability to move the ball: 27 first downs against Tulsa, with Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young providing useful production. Better finishing could make this competitive against the spread. Oregon also outgained Boise State 497–274 and still won by only seven, so its penalties and failed fourth downs are a serious concern when laying 23.5.

I give Oregon’s route more weight because it can create separation through explosive passing while attacking the protection problem that undermined Oklahoma State’s opener. The Cowboys need cleaner finishing and enough defensive containment to keep answering throughout the afternoon. I expect Oregon to interrupt that exchange often enough to cover.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Texas A&M· -110

Kyle Field gets a Saturday morning matchup between teams coming off emphatic opening wins. Now Arizona State takes its newly assembled offense on the road, while Texas A&M faces a different examination of its rebuilt offensive line. That protection matchup is where I land on the Sun Devils. A&M returned one offensive-line starter, allowed two early sacks against Missouri State and finished with a 28.6% offensive stuff rate. Arizona State generated pressure while blitzing only four times against Morgan State. Those performances came against different opponents, but the matchup presents a credible way for Arizona State to interrupt possessions without repeatedly committing extra defenders. I expect that disruption to make sustained separation difficult for A&M. Arizona State also has an offensive route to staying involved. Its quick throws and perimeter blocking helped produce 365 yards after the catch out of Cutter Boley’s 387 passing yards. Reed Harris and Omarion Miller give that approach identifiable targets. I expect A&M to reduce those explosive gains substantially, but Arizona State can still use that approach to move the ball without making extended pass protection the foundation of every possession. The strongest argument against this ticket is A&M’s defensive execution and Marcel Reed’s ability to escape pressure. The Aggies held Missouri State to 67 yards, then scored touchdowns on their first four second-half possessions. If Reed repeatedly turns disruption into positive plays and A&M defeats Arizona State’s perimeter blocks, the favorite has a clear path to covering. I’m backing Arizona State’s ability to interrupt enough drives and sustain enough offense to stay inside this number. Its opener does not prove it can outplay A&M across the game, which is why my bet is the points rather than the outright upset.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Temple· -120

Saturday at noon in Philadelphia, Penn State takes its new offense on the road for the first time. Temple stays at Lincoln Financial Field after an opener built around its running game and defensive touchdowns. I’m laying the points because Penn State’s defensive performance attacks the foundation of Temple’s offense. Keveun Mason ran for 158 yards against Rhode Island, but Penn State held Marshall to 44 rushing yards and recorded a 41.7% defensive stuff rate. Different opponents matter; those results do not guarantee the same outcome here. My judgment is that Penn State can interrupt Temple’s early-down rushing success often enough to make its passing game carry more responsibility. Neither Jaxon Smolik nor Ajani Sheppard secured the starting job in the opener. On the other side, Rocco Becht gives Penn State a demonstrated way to score without needing its running game to dominate. He threw for 271 yards and four touchdowns against Marshall, with Koby Howard supplying 161 receiving yards. Temple allowed downfield openings against Rhode Island, and its reported pass-rush lane mistakes give me another reason to favor Penn State’s passing execution in this matchup. Temple’s two interception-return touchdowns were valuable plays, but I would not build its defensive outlook around repeating them. Temple’s best cover argument is legitimate: extend possessions through Mason, exploit its return game, and make Penn State earn its separation through sustained drives. The Owls already delivered a 17-play touchdown possession, while Penn State averaged only 3.6 rushing yards per carry. That is the strongest obstacle to laying this number. I still favor Penn State because its combination of run disruption and passing production offers the more convincing four-quarter path. I expect Temple to struggle to sustain enough scoring possessions to keep pace, rather than Penn State needing another defensive shutout to cover.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Old Dominion· -114

Lane Stadium is sold out for a noon kickoff, and James Franklin’s Virginia Tech team gets its next examination against Old Dominion. Both won their openers; this matchup asks considerably more of each. I’m laying the points because Virginia Tech has the stronger route to controlling ordinary downs on both sides of the ball. The Hokies recorded a 70.1% standard-down success rate against VMI; Old Dominion managed 38.1% against Norfolk State. Neither opener establishes what happens today, but ODU’s rebuilt offensive line also conceded seven tackles for loss and two sacks. Against a Tech defense coming off 18 tackles for loss, my judgment is that those early-down problems will leave too much work for Quinn Henicle’s escapes and difficult passing conversions. Henicle’s legs and ODU’s explosive receptions are the threat to that read. The Monarchs also have a credible defensive answer: their disguised 3-3-5 pressures could disrupt Ethan Grunkemeyer’s protection decisions, and they held Norfolk State to a 26.2% offensive success rate. That is ODU’s strongest cover path—interrupt Tech’s possessions and manufacture enough scoring responses to stay attached. I favor Tech’s ability to sustain its offense through Jeffrey Overton Jr.’s running and Grunkemeyer’s short distribution to Que’Sean Brown. That approach fits the task of making ODU defend productive possessions repeatedly. Virginia Tech must clean up its 11 penalties and cannot budget for another pair of blocked punts. But ODU’s offensive dependence on rescuing difficult downs looks more vulnerable in this matchup than Tech’s ability to keep creating manageable ones. That is the separation I’m backing over four quarters, with measured confidence at this spread.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs South Florida· -102

Noon at Michie Stadium, with Army and South Florida opening conference play after very different opening wins. Army arrives with continuity on offense; the Bulls bring a rebuilt team into its first road test. I’m backing Army’s ability to sustain offense over four quarters. Eight returning offensive starters, including four offensive linemen, give its opening performance more substance than the blowout score alone. Against Bryant, Army’s offensive stuff rate was 5.3%, and it generated its scoring without forcing a turnover. I don’t expect that production to transfer intact against USF, but the combination of experienced blocking and multiple rushing options is the foundation of this bet. USF’s run defense is the strongest argument against laying the points. It held FIU to 80 rushing yards and produced a 25.0% defensive stuff rate. Its staff also brings familiarity with Army’s offense. If that front disrupts early downs and forces Cale Hellums into passing situations, the Bulls have a credible path to keeping this inside the number. The problem is what USF’s offense gives that defense between possessions. Against FIU, 24.3% of its runs were stopped at or behind the line, its passing-down success rate was 22.7%, and it never gained more than 14 yards on a play. All three takeaways led to scoring possessions. Those were valuable defensive plays, but another supply of short fields is a demanding requirement against an Army offense that committed no turnovers in its opener. South Florida can improve, and Bryant did not provide the defensive test Army faces here. My judgment is that Army’s offensive continuity will translate more reliably than USF’s takeaway-supported scoring. I expect the Bulls’ front to create resistance, but their offense to struggle to sustain enough possessions to relieve it. That gives Army a four-quarter path to separation, which is why I’m taking the spread at -102 rather than paying -164 simply to win.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Michigan· -114

A noon kickoff in Ann Arbor, a sold-out Maize Out, and Michigan’s first chance to answer an unsettling opener. Oklahoma arrives after a comfortable win, but this is the first road examination for its rebuilt offense. I’m backing Oklahoma because its offensive answers fit the problems Michigan showed. The Sooners used two-tight-end formations extensively against UTEP, with Rocky Beers contributing a 40-yard touchdown. Michigan’s defensive film documented linebackers losing assignments against play-action, misdirection and rollout passes. That gives Oklahoma a plausible way to create openings beyond simply asking Isaiah Sategna III to win outside. John Mateer’s passing-down success rate is a team statistic, not an individual one: Oklahoma succeeded on 46.2% of those downs, compared with Michigan’s 28.6%. It is only an opener for each, but Oklahoma demonstrated more ways to keep possessions alive. Michigan’s defense is the strongest argument against laying these points. It allowed no touchdowns against Western Michigan, and its 32.9% success rate allowed was comparable to Oklahoma’s 33.9%. Oklahoma’s shutout also benefited from three missed field goals. Michigan can keep this close if it limits long completions and makes the Sooners finish sustained drives. Mateer’s late-season interception problems are another credible obstacle; his clean opener does not erase them. My deciding concern is whether Michigan can support that defense throughout the game. Bryce Underwood’s offense stalled between its opening and closing touchdown drives, committed three turnovers, and relied on JJ Buchanan for 126 of its 170 passing yards. Oklahoma’s front offers a specific mechanism for those difficulties to persist: the opener’s disruption, backed by the reported ability to disguise where pressure comes from. I expect that matchup to interrupt Michigan’s possessions often enough for Oklahoma’s broader offensive options to create separation. That supports the spread ticket, with measured confidence given Michigan’s defensive resistance and the small current-season sample.

I’m backing Oklahoma because its offensive answers fit the problems Michigan showed. The Sooners used two-tight-end formations extensively against UTEP, with Rocky Beers contributing a 40-yard touchdown. Michigan’s defensive film documented linebackers losing assignments against play-action, misdirection and rollout passes. That gives Oklahoma a plausible way to create openings beyond simply asking Isaiah Sategna III to win outside. John Mateer’s passing-down success rate is a team statistic, not an individual one: Oklahoma succeeded on 46.2% of those downs, compared with Michigan’s 28.6%. It is only an opener for each, but Oklahoma demonstrated more ways to keep possessions alive.

Michigan’s defense is the strongest argument against laying these points. It allowed no touchdowns against Western Michigan, and its 32.9% success rate allowed was comparable to Oklahoma’s 33.9%. Oklahoma’s shutout also benefited from three missed field goals. Michigan can keep this close if it limits long completions and makes the Sooners finish sustained drives. Mateer’s late-season interception problems are another credible obstacle; his clean opener does not erase them.

My deciding concern is whether Michigan can support that defense throughout the game. Bryce Underwood’s offense stalled between its opening and closing touchdown drives, committed three turnovers, and relied on JJ Buchanan for 126 of its 170 passing yards. Oklahoma’s front offers a specific mechanism for those difficulties to persist: the opener’s disruption, backed by the reported ability to disguise where pressure comes from. I expect that matchup to interrupt Michigan’s possessions often enough for Oklahoma’s broader offensive options to create separation. That supports the spread ticket, with measured confidence given Michigan’s defensive resistance and the small current-season sample.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Purdue· -120

It’s a noon kickoff at Ross-Ade Stadium, with both teams coming off comfortable opening wins. Now Purdue and Wake Forest get a more demanding examination of what those performances actually established. The matchup that puts me on Wake is its explosive offense against Purdue’s coverage breakdowns. Purdue surrendered three completions of at least 40 yards against Indiana State, and some of its late trouble came with starters still playing. Wake showed an immediate ability to punish mistakes: Gio Lopez threw for 350 yards, Carlos Hernandez caught five passes for 165 yards, and Ty Clark III added 105 rushing yards. Those totals won’t automatically repeat, but the demonstrated ability to produce big gains lines up with Purdue’s clearest defensive vulnerability. Purdue has a legitimate answer. Its offensive success rate was 50.0%, compared with Wake’s 42.6%, and its opener showed stronger results near the line of scrimmage on both sides. Ryan Browne threw three touchdowns without an interception, just as Lopez did. If Purdue sustains possessions and disrupts Wake before those big plays develop, it can control this game. That is the strongest argument against this ticket. I give Wake the edge because Purdue’s offensive consistency still came with unfinished drives. Purdue averaged 3.700 points per scoring opportunity, compared with Wake’s 4.286; those opportunities include drives reaching the opponent’s 40. Wake’s defense allowed frequent successful plays against Akron but limited their damage. My read is that Purdue will have to execute through more extended possessions, while Wake has the better opportunity to bypass that work with substantial gains. Neither opener establishes a settled team identity, and Wake’s 11 penalties for 115 yards are a real obstacle. But I expect its explosive production to matter more here than Purdue’s advantage in opening-game consistency. I’m taking Wake -2.5: the case is for its scoring opportunities to create separation, rather than merely surviving a close finish.

The matchup that puts me on Wake is its explosive offense against Purdue’s coverage breakdowns. Purdue surrendered three completions of at least 40 yards against Indiana State, and some of its late trouble came with starters still playing. Wake showed an immediate ability to punish mistakes: Gio Lopez threw for 350 yards, Carlos Hernandez caught five passes for 165 yards, and Ty Clark III added 105 rushing yards. Those totals won’t automatically repeat, but the demonstrated ability to produce big gains lines up with Purdue’s clearest defensive vulnerability.

Purdue has a legitimate answer. Its offensive success rate was 50.0%, compared with Wake’s 42.6%, and its opener showed stronger results near the line of scrimmage on both sides. Ryan Browne threw three touchdowns without an interception, just as Lopez did. If Purdue sustains possessions and disrupts Wake before those big plays develop, it can control this game. That is the strongest argument against this ticket.

I give Wake the edge because Purdue’s offensive consistency still came with unfinished drives. Purdue averaged 3.700 points per scoring opportunity, compared with Wake’s 4.286; those opportunities include drives reaching the opponent’s 40. Wake’s defense allowed frequent successful plays against Akron but limited their damage. My read is that Purdue will have to execute through more extended possessions, while Wake has the better opportunity to bypass that work with substantial gains.

Neither opener establishes a settled team identity, and Wake’s 11 penalties for 115 yards are a real obstacle. But I expect its explosive production to matter more here than Purdue’s advantage in opening-game consistency. I’m taking Wake -2.5: the case is for its scoring opportunities to create separation, rather than merely surviving a close finish.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Western Kentucky· -106

A sold-out Sanford Stadium gets a Saturday afternoon whiteout, with Western Kentucky visiting Athens before Georgia begins SEC play. Georgia’s running game against this WKU front is where my case starts. The Hilltoppers allowed 323 rushing yards at Nevada, and their defensive problems extended beyond the long gains: opponents succeeded on 50.8% of plays. Georgia scored touchdowns on its first five possessions against Tennessee State, showing it could finish sustained possessions as well as strike quickly. The opponent matters, but the combination of consistent advancement and explosive gains fits the weaknesses WKU showed. The continuity up front strengthens that matchup. Georgia opened with four offensive linemen who had prior college starts; WKU returned only one starting offensive lineman. Gunner Stockton also brings established starting experience into an offense that distributed the ball effectively in its opener. I expect Georgia to create repeated scoring opportunities while making WKU work harder to sustain its own possessions. WKU’s offense provides the strongest argument against laying this number. It produced 367 yards and 23 first downs at Nevada, so there is evidence it can move the ball and extend possessions. Its problem was converting that movement into meaningful scoring. Rodney Tisdale Jr. needed 40 attempts for 203 passing yards, and the offense struggled in short-yardage situations. Its second touchdown came with only 1:18 remaining. My judgment is that those finishing problems persist against Georgia often enough to let the Bulldogs keep adding separation. At -40.5, the second half is central to the ticket. Georgia scored four second-half touchdowns after turning extensively to reserves last week, while its defense kept Tennessee State scoreless after halftime. That gives the favorite a demonstrated route to extending a lead through substitutions. Today’s rotation is not announced, and an overmatched FCS opponent limits how confidently that production transfers. WKU can cover by sustaining drives, protecting the ball and collecting points late. Georgia’s penalties in the opener also show how it could help those possessions along. I still favor Georgia’s four-quarter path: the Hilltoppers’ difficulty stopping drives and finishing their own creates opportunities for the margin to keep growing. I’m backing that matchup to carry Georgia through this substantial number.

A sold-out Sanford Stadium gets a Saturday afternoon whiteout, with Western Kentucky visiting Athens before Georgia begins SEC play.

Georgia’s running game against this WKU front is where my case starts. The Hilltoppers allowed 323 rushing yards at Nevada, and their defensive problems extended beyond the long gains: opponents succeeded on 50.8% of plays. Georgia scored touchdowns on its first five possessions against Tennessee State, showing it could finish sustained possessions as well as strike quickly. The opponent matters, but the combination of consistent advancement and explosive gains fits the weaknesses WKU showed.

The continuity up front strengthens that matchup. Georgia opened with four offensive linemen who had prior college starts; WKU returned only one starting offensive lineman. Gunner Stockton also brings established starting experience into an offense that distributed the ball effectively in its opener. I expect Georgia to create repeated scoring opportunities while making WKU work harder to sustain its own possessions.

WKU’s offense provides the strongest argument against laying this number. It produced 367 yards and 23 first downs at Nevada, so there is evidence it can move the ball and extend possessions. Its problem was converting that movement into meaningful scoring. Rodney Tisdale Jr. needed 40 attempts for 203 passing yards, and the offense struggled in short-yardage situations. Its second touchdown came with only 1:18 remaining. My judgment is that those finishing problems persist against Georgia often enough to let the Bulldogs keep adding separation.

At -40.5, the second half is central to the ticket. Georgia scored four second-half touchdowns after turning extensively to reserves last week, while its defense kept Tennessee State scoreless after halftime. That gives the favorite a demonstrated route to extending a lead through substitutions. Today’s rotation is not announced, and an overmatched FCS opponent limits how confidently that production transfers.

WKU can cover by sustaining drives, protecting the ball and collecting points late. Georgia’s penalties in the opener also show how it could help those possessions along. I still favor Georgia’s four-quarter path: the Hilltoppers’ difficulty stopping drives and finishing their own creates opportunities for the margin to keep growing. I’m backing that matchup to carry Georgia through this substantial number.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· +142

Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park, and Colorado gets another shot at Detroit after dropping the series opener. I’m taking the Rockies at +142, with their starter’s road performance carrying the argument. His 5.40 season ERA looks vulnerable, but a 2.68 road ERA puts this assignment in a different light. That split does not guarantee another good outing, and those innings include different opponents and circumstances. It does give me a credible reason to question the pitching separation implied by Detroit’s -168 price. Colorado has a starting-pitching path to this game that the overall ERA understates. Detroit’s starter brings a 4.38 ERA across just 12⅓ major-league innings. That is a thin foundation for confidence about how he handles today’s lineup. Colorado’s confirmed third and fourth hitters carry season OPS marks of .826 and .840, providing established offensive production against that uncertainty. Their numbers include games at Coors, so I’m keeping the venue adjustment in mind. My read is that Colorado can establish an early lead while its starter keeps Detroit within reach. The wind blowing in from right field also offers potentially helpful conditions for a visiting starter whose home-run allowance is a legitimate concern. The strongest argument against Colorado is Detroit’s bullpen. Its principal relief options have better season run-prevention numbers, and the documented workload in the opener was lighter. I give Detroit the advantage if this becomes an even game decided by relief pitching. Colorado’s five-game losing streak adds no reassurance, either. I’m accepting those concerns because the road pitching split and Detroit’s limited starting-pitching sample leave a believable opening for the underdog before the bullpens take over. At +142, I’m willing to back that opening with measured conviction.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ BYU· +100

It’s an afternoon Big 12 opener in Provo, with No. 15 BYU hosting Arizona. Both teams arrive after comfortable opening wins, and both returning quarterbacks now face a more demanding examination. The matchup that puts me on Arizona is its defensive front against BYU’s ability to stay on schedule. Arizona produced five sacks and 11 tackles for loss against Northern Arizona, with disruption extending beyond the plays that ended in sacks. BYU’s opening offensive success rate was 69.4% on standard downs and 37.5% on passing downs. Those are opening-game samples against different opponents, but they identify a credible mechanism: Arizona can interrupt possessions by putting BYU into the situations where its offense was less effective. I expect enough of those interruptions to matter across four quarters. Fifita gives Arizona a way to answer when BYU does score. He completed 22 of 29 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the opener. The reported expansion of his protection adjustments and play-changing responsibilities matters against a BYU defense whose pressure was more substantial than its sack total suggests. The eligibility clearances for Ismail Mahdi and Max Harris also restore experienced backfield and linebacker options, although the case does not depend on either handling a particular workload. The opening scoreboards need careful interpretation. BYU earned its dominant win, but early takeaways supplied short fields and a kickoff return added another touchdown. Arizona’s defense allowed no offensive points; the touchdown it conceded on the scoreboard came from a backup quarterback’s interception. Arizona’s two lost fumbles remain a genuine concern. My expectation of a competitive game rests on its offense sustaining possessions and its front producing stops, rather than an assumed reversal in turnover fortunes. The strongest argument against this ticket is Arizona’s secondary. Its missed tackles and coverage errors allowed damaging plays even while the defense stopped possessions frequently. Bachmeier’s efficient passing and Legend Glasker’s scoring debut give BYU a demonstrated way to exploit those mistakes. If Arizona’s defensive breakdowns become touchdowns, its successful snaps elsewhere may not prevent BYU from covering. I give Arizona’s disruptive front and returning quarterback enough weight to take the points despite that risk. The Wildcats have a credible four-quarter path to staying close, but their secondary leaves more room for BYU to win than I want to accept on an outright ticket. Arizona +6.5 at +100 fits the read.

It’s an afternoon Big 12 opener in Provo, with No. 15 BYU hosting Arizona. Both teams arrive after comfortable opening wins, and both returning quarterbacks now face a more demanding examination.

The matchup that puts me on Arizona is its defensive front against BYU’s ability to stay on schedule. Arizona produced five sacks and 11 tackles for loss against Northern Arizona, with disruption extending beyond the plays that ended in sacks. BYU’s opening offensive success rate was 69.4% on standard downs and 37.5% on passing downs. Those are opening-game samples against different opponents, but they identify a credible mechanism: Arizona can interrupt possessions by putting BYU into the situations where its offense was less effective. I expect enough of those interruptions to matter across four quarters.

Fifita gives Arizona a way to answer when BYU does score. He completed 22 of 29 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the opener. The reported expansion of his protection adjustments and play-changing responsibilities matters against a BYU defense whose pressure was more substantial than its sack total suggests. The eligibility clearances for Ismail Mahdi and Max Harris also restore experienced backfield and linebacker options, although the case does not depend on either handling a particular workload.

The opening scoreboards need careful interpretation. BYU earned its dominant win, but early takeaways supplied short fields and a kickoff return added another touchdown. Arizona’s defense allowed no offensive points; the touchdown it conceded on the scoreboard came from a backup quarterback’s interception. Arizona’s two lost fumbles remain a genuine concern. My expectation of a competitive game rests on its offense sustaining possessions and its front producing stops, rather than an assumed reversal in turnover fortunes.

The strongest argument against this ticket is Arizona’s secondary. Its missed tackles and coverage errors allowed damaging plays even while the defense stopped possessions frequently. Bachmeier’s efficient passing and Legend Glasker’s scoring debut give BYU a demonstrated way to exploit those mistakes. If Arizona’s defensive breakdowns become touchdowns, its successful snaps elsewhere may not prevent BYU from covering.

I give Arizona’s disruptive front and returning quarterback enough weight to take the points despite that risk. The Wildcats have a credible four-quarter path to staying close, but their secondary leaves more room for BYU to win than I want to accept on an outright ticket. Arizona +6.5 at +100 fits the read.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Notre Dame· -105

Notre Dame opens its home schedule Saturday afternoon with Rice bringing its shotgun option to South Bend. The Irish arrive after taking over against Wisconsin in the second half; the Owls arrive with an offense built around the ground game. I’m backing Rice to sustain enough possessions to stay inside this number. Against Houston Christian, the Owls ran 69 times and controlled possession for 39:32. Their option makes the defense account for the inside handoff, quarterback and pitch, giving Rice different ways to keep a series moving. That production came against FCS opposition, so the jump in competition matters considerably. My judgment is that Rice can make that structure function in stretches and consume time even while Notre Dame controls the game. Notre Dame’s strongest argument is its ability to turn defensive stops into sustained touchdown production. The Irish earned second-half touchdowns on drives covering 70, 75 and 88 yards against Wisconsin. But they also had three first-half three-and-outs and led only 13–10 at halftime. Their eventual separation included a pick-six and a touchdown following a recovered kickoff at Wisconsin’s 13. Those plays explain part of the opening result; I would not build this ticket around another set of scoring shortcuts. Rice extending even some possessions would make an uneven offensive start more consequential for Notre Dame at this spread. The danger to Rice is clear: Notre Dame held Wisconsin to 67 rushing yards, while Rice produced only 35 passing yards in its opener. If the Irish repeatedly disrupt the option on early downs, Rice could struggle to sustain possessions at all. That is the strongest route to a Notre Dame cover. I expect enough successful option series to interrupt that sequence, with the Irish having to work through sustained drives for much of their scoring. That combination puts me on Rice +44.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs UCF· +100

Acrisure Stadium gets two teams coming off runaway opening wins, with rain in the afternoon forecast. Both now face a more demanding test of what those openers actually established. I’m backing Pitt’s passing offense to sustain the scoring pressure. Mason Heintschel carried the starting job forward from late last season, Pittsburgh returns four offensive-line starters, and the opener brought encouraging execution: one sack allowed and seven touchdown passes distributed among seven receivers. I don’t need another record-setting afternoon. The distribution matters because Pitt demonstrated several ways to finish possessions without depending on one receiver winning every matchup. The matchup that pushes me toward the spread is Pitt’s defensive front against UCF’s rebuilt offensive line. UCF returns only one full-season starter up front. Duke Watson’s 110 rushing yards showed the danger in that backfield, but the Knights also had protection breakdowns against Bethune-Cookman, and Alonza Barnett III missed downfield throws. Pitt shut down Miami (Ohio)’s running game in its opener. My expectation is that its run defense and aggressive pressure packages make UCF sustain more possessions through contested passing situations, where the Knights’ opening execution was less convincing. UCF’s strongest answer is legitimate: keep Watson productive, disrupt Heintschel and attack the explosive-pass vulnerability Pitt already showed. The Knights recorded nine tackles for loss in their opener, and Heintschel’s late-2025 difficulties against pressure make that a credible threat. Pittsburgh also conceded a 75-yard passing touchdown against Miami (Ohio). If those defensive lapses continue, UCF can keep answering scores and stay inside this number. I give Pitt the advantage because its passing distribution and opening protection offer a more convincing route to sustained scoring than UCF’s opener showed through the air. I expect Pitt to create enough difficult passing downs to interrupt the Knights’ scoring responses over four quarters. Rain adds an execution challenge for both teams; it does not supply my reason for choosing either side. This ticket rests on Pitt sustaining its offense while forcing UCF away from the comfortable rushing script that powered its debut.

Acrisure Stadium gets two teams coming off runaway opening wins, with rain in the afternoon forecast. Both now face a more demanding test of what those openers actually established.

I’m backing Pitt’s passing offense to sustain the scoring pressure. Mason Heintschel carried the starting job forward from late last season, Pittsburgh returns four offensive-line starters, and the opener brought encouraging execution: one sack allowed and seven touchdown passes distributed among seven receivers. I don’t need another record-setting afternoon. The distribution matters because Pitt demonstrated several ways to finish possessions without depending on one receiver winning every matchup.

The matchup that pushes me toward the spread is Pitt’s defensive front against UCF’s rebuilt offensive line. UCF returns only one full-season starter up front. Duke Watson’s 110 rushing yards showed the danger in that backfield, but the Knights also had protection breakdowns against Bethune-Cookman, and Alonza Barnett III missed downfield throws. Pitt shut down Miami (Ohio)’s running game in its opener. My expectation is that its run defense and aggressive pressure packages make UCF sustain more possessions through contested passing situations, where the Knights’ opening execution was less convincing.

UCF’s strongest answer is legitimate: keep Watson productive, disrupt Heintschel and attack the explosive-pass vulnerability Pitt already showed. The Knights recorded nine tackles for loss in their opener, and Heintschel’s late-2025 difficulties against pressure make that a credible threat. Pittsburgh also conceded a 75-yard passing touchdown against Miami (Ohio). If those defensive lapses continue, UCF can keep answering scores and stay inside this number.

I give Pitt the advantage because its passing distribution and opening protection offer a more convincing route to sustained scoring than UCF’s opener showed through the air. I expect Pitt to create enough difficult passing downs to interrupt the Knights’ scoring responses over four quarters. Rain adds an execution challenge for both teams; it does not supply my reason for choosing either side. This ticket rests on Pitt sustaining its offense while forcing UCF away from the comfortable rushing script that powered its debut.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs UTSA· -110

A hot afternoon in San Marcos sets the stage for the Battle for I-35. Texas State comes home after a bruising opener at Texas, while UTSA arrives with an opening victory and an offense that has already shown several ways to score. The matchup that brings me to Texas State is Brad Jackson against UTSA’s containment. The Roadrunners repeatedly disrupted the pocket against UTRGV but allowed quarterbacks to escape outside and extend plays. Jackson’s mobility makes that weakness relevant here: he produced a 32-yard run against Texas, and his established connection with Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. gives extended possessions a receiving threat behind them. My read is that UTSA will have trouble consistently ending those plays and getting off the field. Texas State moved the ball better than its seven points suggested, gaining 349 yards and converting 8 of 14 third downs. Three turnovers and two missed field goals wrecked the return on that movement. Those were real execution failures, and improvement is not automatic. But UTSA conceded 422 yards to UTRGV and committed 11 penalties for 115 yards. That combination of tackling problems, containment failures and penalties gives the Bobcats a credible route to keep creating opportunities even when a possession goes off schedule. UTSA’s strongest answer is substantial. Owen McCown completed 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns, while DJ Allen Jr., Will Henderson III and A’Marion Peterson demonstrated touchdown-producing explosiveness. Texas State’s coverage breakdowns make those weapons a serious obstacle to this ticket. Those offensive scores were earned. Still, UTSA also converted only three of nine third downs and went scoreless in the third quarter. Its comfortable opening margin included an interception-return touchdown created by an opponent mistake; that contribution should not be assumed again. I give more weight to Jackson’s specific matchup with UTSA’s containment and tackling than to the difference between the opening scores. Texas State has an established quarterback and receiving pair positioned to exploit that weakness repeatedly. Finishing remains the responsibility that comes with backing the Bobcats, but I expect their offensive movement to produce enough sustained scoring here to cover -2.5.

The matchup that brings me to Texas State is Brad Jackson against UTSA’s containment. The Roadrunners repeatedly disrupted the pocket against UTRGV but allowed quarterbacks to escape outside and extend plays. Jackson’s mobility makes that weakness relevant here: he produced a 32-yard run against Texas, and his established connection with Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. gives extended possessions a receiving threat behind them. My read is that UTSA will have trouble consistently ending those plays and getting off the field.

Texas State moved the ball better than its seven points suggested, gaining 349 yards and converting 8 of 14 third downs. Three turnovers and two missed field goals wrecked the return on that movement. Those were real execution failures, and improvement is not automatic. But UTSA conceded 422 yards to UTRGV and committed 11 penalties for 115 yards. That combination of tackling problems, containment failures and penalties gives the Bobcats a credible route to keep creating opportunities even when a possession goes off schedule.

UTSA’s strongest answer is substantial. Owen McCown completed 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns, while DJ Allen Jr., Will Henderson III and A’Marion Peterson demonstrated touchdown-producing explosiveness. Texas State’s coverage breakdowns make those weapons a serious obstacle to this ticket. Those offensive scores were earned. Still, UTSA also converted only three of nine third downs and went scoreless in the third quarter. Its comfortable opening margin included an interception-return touchdown created by an opponent mistake; that contribution should not be assumed again.

I give more weight to Jackson’s specific matchup with UTSA’s containment and tackling than to the difference between the opening scores. Texas State has an established quarterback and receiving pair positioned to exploit that weakness repeatedly. Finishing remains the responsibility that comes with backing the Bobcats, but I expect their offensive movement to produce enough sustained scoring here to cover -2.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs California· -108

California heads east to the JMA Wireless Dome for the ACC opener. Syracuse follows a dominant opening weekend; Cal follows a game that was tied before unraveling in the fourth quarter. The matchup I’m buying is Syracuse’s running game against Cal’s defensive front. Syracuse averaged 5.6 yards per carry in its opener. Cal allowed 277 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, and UCLA’s final three touchdown possessions consisted entirely of runs. The concern extends beyond those breakaways: Cal allowed a 56.6% offensive success rate and stopped only 3.5% of opposing carries at or behind the line. My expectation is that Syracuse can sustain drives against that front without needing the turnovers that helped inflate its opening victory. Cal has a credible answer through Adam Mohammed, who contributed 120 rushing yards and 46 receiving yards. Its offense produced both a quick scoring drive and a sustained touchdown march against UCLA, and its successful plays generated more value than Syracuse’s did in the opener. That is the strongest case for taking the points: Cal can threaten through more than one avenue, and Syracuse’s defensive dominance came against New Hampshire. This is a more demanding assignment. What puts me on Syracuse is the difference between Cal’s ability to produce good possessions and its ability to sustain them while getting stops. Cal’s offensive success rate was 33.7%, compared with Syracuse’s 52.6%. The opponent difference deserves substantial weight, but Cal’s problems were not confined to a tipped interception or a misleading final score. Its defensive front repeatedly failed when UCLA kept running. I expect that weakness to give Syracuse the more dependable offensive foundation across the game. Syracuse’s biggest obstacle is its own execution: 12 penalties for 125 yards and two failed extra-point attempts are meaningful concerns when laying more than a field goal. I’m accepting that risk because my read calls for separation through sustained offense, rather than merely a home victory. That makes the spread at -108 the ticket I want over the moneyline at -170.

California heads east to the JMA Wireless Dome for the ACC opener. Syracuse follows a dominant opening weekend; Cal follows a game that was tied before unraveling in the fourth quarter.

The matchup I’m buying is Syracuse’s running game against Cal’s defensive front. Syracuse averaged 5.6 yards per carry in its opener. Cal allowed 277 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, and UCLA’s final three touchdown possessions consisted entirely of runs. The concern extends beyond those breakaways: Cal allowed a 56.6% offensive success rate and stopped only 3.5% of opposing carries at or behind the line. My expectation is that Syracuse can sustain drives against that front without needing the turnovers that helped inflate its opening victory.

Cal has a credible answer through Adam Mohammed, who contributed 120 rushing yards and 46 receiving yards. Its offense produced both a quick scoring drive and a sustained touchdown march against UCLA, and its successful plays generated more value than Syracuse’s did in the opener. That is the strongest case for taking the points: Cal can threaten through more than one avenue, and Syracuse’s defensive dominance came against New Hampshire. This is a more demanding assignment.

What puts me on Syracuse is the difference between Cal’s ability to produce good possessions and its ability to sustain them while getting stops. Cal’s offensive success rate was 33.7%, compared with Syracuse’s 52.6%. The opponent difference deserves substantial weight, but Cal’s problems were not confined to a tipped interception or a misleading final score. Its defensive front repeatedly failed when UCLA kept running. I expect that weakness to give Syracuse the more dependable offensive foundation across the game.

Syracuse’s biggest obstacle is its own execution: 12 penalties for 125 yards and two failed extra-point attempts are meaningful concerns when laying more than a field goal. I’m accepting that risk because my read calls for separation through sustained offense, rather than merely a home victory. That makes the spread at -108 the ticket I want over the moneyline at -170.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs UL Monroe· -110

Saturday afternoon in Birmingham, UAB opens its home schedule against UL Monroe. Both teams arrive looking for their first win after road losses in their openers. I’m backing UAB’s ability to sustain offense against this particular defensive front. The Blazers rushed for 194 yards at Illinois, with Rod Robinson II and Bam McReynolds contributing 59 and 56. ULM surrendered 345 rushing yards at Mississippi State and allowed 4.13 line yards, a measure focused on the blocking contribution. That gives UAB a concrete path: establish productive runs, keep Ryder Burton in manageable situations, and make ULM defend repeated possessions. UAB’s offensive success rate was 43.0%, compared with ULM’s 29.6%. Those performances came against different opponents, so the gap is not a direct forecast. What matters here is how UAB’s demonstrated ability to sustain drives meets a defense that struggled to interrupt them. ULM allowed Mississippi State to score on its first eight possessions. That breakdown happened without ULM committing a turnover, so there is little support for explaining it away as an offense repeatedly putting its defense in trouble. The strongest argument for taking the points is UAB’s own defense and finishing. The Blazers allowed a 56.8% defensive success rate and converted only two of five red-zone visits into touchdowns. If those patterns continue, ULM can trade enough scores to stay inside the number. Possession and yardage alone will not cover this spread. I’m laying the points because UAB has the clearer combination of sustained offensive production and a rushing matchup that can help turn those stalled drives into touchdowns. ULM’s corresponding path requires its offense to extend possessions much more reliably after converting only 3 of 16 third downs. Both defenses have correction work ahead, but UAB has shown more of the offensive execution needed to exploit the opponent’s problems. That is the distinction I trust at -8.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Illinois· -105

It’s a sold-out afternoon in Champaign, with Duke visiting Illinois for this Big Ten–ACC meeting. The home crowd gets its first look at how Illinois’s rebuilt team handles a Power Four opponent. The matchup that brings me to Duke is its running game against Illinois’s defensive execution. Illinois allowed UAB to rush for 194 yards on 48 attempts, with reported problems fitting the interior gaps and finishing tackles. Nate Sheppard arrives after producing 227 yards on 35 carries against Tulane. Duke demonstrated that it could sustain touchdown drives and answer a fourth-quarter score by going back to the ground. I expect that approach to keep finding opportunities against the specific weakness Illinois showed. Illinois’s 42–23 opener also needs context. A pick-six, a Hail Mary and a touchdown following a long punt return helped create the separation, while UAB held possession for 41:03. Those impact plays count, but Illinois will need more consistent defensive stops to prevent Duke from keeping this game close. Duke supplies defensive support for that path: it allowed a 30.9% success rate in its opener, compared with Illinois’s 43.0%. My read is that Duke can make Illinois work through sustained possessions while its own running game keeps the offense involved. The strongest argument against this ticket is Illinois’s passing efficiency. Katin Houser completed 13 of 17 passes with three touchdowns, and Illinois’s offensive success rate was 56.8% against Duke’s 29.5%. Walker Eget’s 13-of-26 performance produced no passing touchdowns, and Duke scored only 17 points despite its rushing production. An Illinois lead that forces Duke to rely more heavily on Eget is the clearest threat to this bet. I’m taking the points because Duke’s demonstrated strength attacks an identifiable Illinois weakness, and its defensive opener supports a competitive game beyond simply controlling the clock. Illinois has the stronger passing performance coming in; I expect Duke’s running game to keep that advantage from becoming sustained separation. The conviction is in Duke covering this spread, so +5.5 fits the read better than the moneyline.

The matchup that brings me to Duke is its running game against Illinois’s defensive execution. Illinois allowed UAB to rush for 194 yards on 48 attempts, with reported problems fitting the interior gaps and finishing tackles. Nate Sheppard arrives after producing 227 yards on 35 carries against Tulane. Duke demonstrated that it could sustain touchdown drives and answer a fourth-quarter score by going back to the ground. I expect that approach to keep finding opportunities against the specific weakness Illinois showed.

Illinois’s 42–23 opener also needs context. A pick-six, a Hail Mary and a touchdown following a long punt return helped create the separation, while UAB held possession for 41:03. Those impact plays count, but Illinois will need more consistent defensive stops to prevent Duke from keeping this game close. Duke supplies defensive support for that path: it allowed a 30.9% success rate in its opener, compared with Illinois’s 43.0%. My read is that Duke can make Illinois work through sustained possessions while its own running game keeps the offense involved.

The strongest argument against this ticket is Illinois’s passing efficiency. Katin Houser completed 13 of 17 passes with three touchdowns, and Illinois’s offensive success rate was 56.8% against Duke’s 29.5%. Walker Eget’s 13-of-26 performance produced no passing touchdowns, and Duke scored only 17 points despite its rushing production. An Illinois lead that forces Duke to rely more heavily on Eget is the clearest threat to this bet.

I’m taking the points because Duke’s demonstrated strength attacks an identifiable Illinois weakness, and its defensive opener supports a competitive game beyond simply controlling the clock. Illinois has the stronger passing performance coming in; I expect Duke’s running game to keep that advantage from becoming sustained separation. The conviction is in Duke covering this spread, so +5.5 fits the read better than the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Minnesota· +100

Minnesota has a Gold Out at Huntington Bank Stadium, and both teams arrive after commanding opening wins. Their first meeting brings Mississippi State to Minneapolis for its first road appearance of the season. I’m backing Mississippi State because Kamario Taylor gives its offense multiple ways to sustain a threat. His opener produced 354 passing yards, four touchdown passes and 59 rushing yards, with Anthony Evans III and Marquis Johnson both contributing substantial receiving production. The rushing threat has evidence beyond ULM: Taylor ran for 173 yards in last season’s loss to Ole Miss. That does not establish how he performs against Minnesota, but it supports treating his mobility as a meaningful part of this matchup. The blocking comparison strengthens that case. Minnesota had 23.1% of its carries stopped at or behind the line in its opener, compared with Mississippi State’s 13.5%. Those performances came against different opponents, but Minnesota’s uneven run blocking is a concrete concern beneath its scoring total. My read is that Mississippi State can make Lindsey shoulder more of the offense, while Taylor’s running gives the Bulldogs another option when their passing game meets resistance. I also discount the scale of State’s rushing total: J.J. Hill’s 118 yards came entirely in the fourth quarter after the game was settled. Minnesota’s strongest answer is efficient possession football backed by defensive disruption. Drake Lindsey completed 19 of 24 passes in the opener, and Minnesota allowed successful offensive plays just 10.9% of the time. If that defense contains Taylor while Lindsey keeps moving the chains, the Gophers can win this game. That is the clearest threat to the ticket. Both opening opponents limit how far those performances can be projected, and Minnesota’s two punt-return touchdowns are another contribution that cannot simply be carried forward. I give Mississippi State the edge because its combination of quarterback mobility, receiving production and the better opening blocking performance offers the more convincing route to sustained scoring. That is enough for me to lay the short spread at even money.

I’m backing Mississippi State because Kamario Taylor gives its offense multiple ways to sustain a threat. His opener produced 354 passing yards, four touchdown passes and 59 rushing yards, with Anthony Evans III and Marquis Johnson both contributing substantial receiving production. The rushing threat has evidence beyond ULM: Taylor ran for 173 yards in last season’s loss to Ole Miss. That does not establish how he performs against Minnesota, but it supports treating his mobility as a meaningful part of this matchup.

The blocking comparison strengthens that case. Minnesota had 23.1% of its carries stopped at or behind the line in its opener, compared with Mississippi State’s 13.5%. Those performances came against different opponents, but Minnesota’s uneven run blocking is a concrete concern beneath its scoring total. My read is that Mississippi State can make Lindsey shoulder more of the offense, while Taylor’s running gives the Bulldogs another option when their passing game meets resistance. I also discount the scale of State’s rushing total: J.J. Hill’s 118 yards came entirely in the fourth quarter after the game was settled.

Minnesota’s strongest answer is efficient possession football backed by defensive disruption. Drake Lindsey completed 19 of 24 passes in the opener, and Minnesota allowed successful offensive plays just 10.9% of the time. If that defense contains Taylor while Lindsey keeps moving the chains, the Gophers can win this game. That is the clearest threat to the ticket. Both opening opponents limit how far those performances can be projected, and Minnesota’s two punt-return touchdowns are another contribution that cannot simply be carried forward.

I give Mississippi State the edge because its combination of quarterback mobility, receiving production and the better opening blocking performance offers the more convincing route to sustained scoring. That is enough for me to lay the short spread at even money.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Eastern Michigan· -106

Noah Kim returns to Spartan Stadium in Eastern Michigan colors for an in-state Saturday afternoon matchup. Michigan State stays home for its second game of the season. I’m laying the points because Eastern’s difficulty sustaining offense gives Michigan State a path to keep building its advantage throughout the game. Eastern has converted 8-of-31 third downs, and its passing-down success rate is 15.9%. Michigan State allowed successful plays on just 28.6% of defensive snaps against Toledo. That matchup puts pressure on Eastern to produce early in possessions; repeatedly needing its passing game to rescue stalled drives looks like a difficult way to keep answering scores. Michigan State’s passing game is the reason I expect those extra opportunities to produce better finishing. Alessio Milivojevic completed 26 of 34 passes in the opener, with Rodney Bullard Jr. and Chrishon McCray providing established connections. They now face an Eastern defense allowing 269 passing yards per game. Michigan State has a credible way to move the ball through the air if Cam Edwards encounters resistance on the ground. Turning more of those possessions into touchdowns is the decisive requirement for this ticket. Eastern’s strongest counterargument is its defensive front: a 29.4% stuff rate gives it a legitimate chance to interrupt Michigan State’s rushing possessions. The Spartans held the ball for 43:16 against Toledo and still scored only two touchdowns. Another afternoon of stalled drives would put this spread in trouble. Their defensive breakdowns also matter, with Amareon Blue’s documented long touchdown run showing that Eastern has a way to punish a missed assignment. I give Michigan State’s sustained-possession path more weight than Eastern’s combination of defensive stops and occasional big plays. Eastern scored 14 of its 21 points against San José State after takeaways, including a defensive touchdown, yet its final seven possessions produced only 45 yards. Those takeaways involved earned defensive plays, but Eastern needs considerably more ordinary offensive production to complement them. I expect Michigan State’s passing matchup to improve its finishing while Eastern’s stalled possessions make answering those scores difficult.

Noah Kim returns to Spartan Stadium in Eastern Michigan colors for an in-state Saturday afternoon matchup. Michigan State stays home for its second game of the season.

I’m laying the points because Eastern’s difficulty sustaining offense gives Michigan State a path to keep building its advantage throughout the game. Eastern has converted 8-of-31 third downs, and its passing-down success rate is 15.9%. Michigan State allowed successful plays on just 28.6% of defensive snaps against Toledo. That matchup puts pressure on Eastern to produce early in possessions; repeatedly needing its passing game to rescue stalled drives looks like a difficult way to keep answering scores.

Michigan State’s passing game is the reason I expect those extra opportunities to produce better finishing. Alessio Milivojevic completed 26 of 34 passes in the opener, with Rodney Bullard Jr. and Chrishon McCray providing established connections. They now face an Eastern defense allowing 269 passing yards per game. Michigan State has a credible way to move the ball through the air if Cam Edwards encounters resistance on the ground. Turning more of those possessions into touchdowns is the decisive requirement for this ticket.

Eastern’s strongest counterargument is its defensive front: a 29.4% stuff rate gives it a legitimate chance to interrupt Michigan State’s rushing possessions. The Spartans held the ball for 43:16 against Toledo and still scored only two touchdowns. Another afternoon of stalled drives would put this spread in trouble. Their defensive breakdowns also matter, with Amareon Blue’s documented long touchdown run showing that Eastern has a way to punish a missed assignment.

I give Michigan State’s sustained-possession path more weight than Eastern’s combination of defensive stops and occasional big plays. Eastern scored 14 of its 21 points against San José State after takeaways, including a defensive touchdown, yet its final seven possessions produced only 45 yards. Those takeaways involved earned defensive plays, but Eastern needs considerably more ordinary offensive production to complement them. I expect Michigan State’s passing matchup to improve its finishing while Eastern’s stalled possessions make answering those scores difficult.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· +104

It’s Saturday afternoon at Wrigley, and Pittsburgh gets another shot at Chicago after Friday’s 12–2 loss. I’m taking Pirates ML +104, with the starting pitcher’s strikeout production and Pittsburgh’s main late-inning options carrying my decision. Pittsburgh’s starter has 10.5 K/9 against Chicago’s 6.8, while their WHIPs are much closer at 1.15 and 1.12. Those strikeouts give Pittsburgh a concrete strength against the stronger season offense. Chicago owns the better starting ERA, but I see enough competitive substance beyond that number to give the underdog a serious chance. The bullpen helps complete that winning path. Pittsburgh’s principal closing options carry 2.77 and 3.08 ERAs, compared with Chicago’s closer at 3.36. Neither Pittsburgh option pitched Friday, and Chicago’s closer also sat out. Both teams therefore preserved important late-inning arms; my preference for Pittsburgh comes from the performance of its main finishing options. Friday’s damage came against other pitchers, which limits how much that result tells us about this afternoon’s pitching combination. If Pittsburgh hands those preferred relievers a lead, I’m comfortable backing that route to an outright win. The strongest argument against this pick is Chicago’s offense: a .771 OPS and 5.4 runs per game against Pittsburgh’s .733 and 4.8. Add Chicago’s starter’s 2.83 ERA, and the Cubs have a substantial case beyond yesterday’s result. His strong outings before the latest blowup also make a rebound entirely plausible. I respect that combination, and it keeps my confidence measured. Still, Pittsburgh’s strikeout advantage and available finishing arms give me enough reason to take +104. I’m backing a specific pitching combination to overcome Chicago’s offensive advantage, with the plus price making that tradeoff worth taking.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mets· -164

Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, and the Subway Series returns to Yankee Stadium. I’m backing the Yankees at -164, with their lineup’s handedness carrying the most weight. Six right-handed hitters are confirmed against a Mets starter who has allowed right-handers an .803 OPS in 166 at-bats, compared with .573 against left-handers. That gives this particular Yankees order a favorable opening. The sample warrants caution, and handedness alone cannot establish every hitter’s advantage, but the opposing pitcher’s measured results make this a matchup concern I’m willing to back. The Yankees also have the stronger starting-pitching profile: a 1.09 WHIP and 9.2 K/9, compared with 1.19 and 6.9 for the Mets’ starter. Recent results reinforce that distinction. The Yankees starter’s last five outings produced a 3.56 ERA; the Mets starter’s produced a 5.00 ERA, with 34 hits allowed in 27 innings despite just 3 walks. That combination matters to my decision: the Mets starter has recently allowed frequent hits, and today’s opposing lineup emphasizes the side against which he has struggled. Together, the pitching advantage and that specific offensive opportunity are enough for me to pay -164 with moderate conviction. The strongest argument against my pick is the Mets’ offense. Their recent results include several games scoring 10 or more runs, and the Yankees starter has surrendered 17 home runs in 111.0 innings. The Mets have a credible path to an early lead that changes the demands on both bullpens. I take that threat seriously. Still, the Yankees starter has allowed left-handed hitters a .636 OPS overall, so the Mets’ left-handed presence does not establish a broad advantage against him. My judgment is that the Yankees’ combination of starting pitching and a favorable opposing platoon split outweighs the Mets’ recent offensive surge. I’m taking the Yankees to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Maryland· -110

Saturday afternoon at Rentschler Field brings Maryland’s first road game and Jason Candle’s next test at UConn. Both teams arrive after overwhelming FCS opponents in their openers. Now the competition changes. Osborne’s ability to produce through the air and on the ground is the strongest reason I want these points. He passed for 265 yards and rushed for 90 against Lafayette, with Javon Brown supplying six catches for 92 yards. His running also carried into tougher circumstances in his previous bowl start against Louisville, when he rushed for 77 yards. That gives UConn a demonstrated way to extend possessions when the original passing opportunity disappears. My read is that his mobility will keep some Maryland defensive wins from becoming drive-ending stops. Maryland’s running game is the strongest argument against this ticket. Its offensive success rate was 59.5% in the opener against UConn’s 51.4%, and its defense allowed successful plays just 23.1% of the time against UConn’s 27.8%. Sustaining that advantage would let Maryland control possessions and build separation. But Washington’s uneven passing performance matters here: he averaged 6 yards per attempt against Hampton, while Osborne averaged 10.19 against Lafayette. Maryland also converted its passing-down situations into successful plays less frequently, 31.3% against UConn’s 40.0%. Those are opening-game descriptions, but they identify where I expect UConn to keep the matchup competitive when possessions become harder. UConn’s defense showed an ability to interrupt a promising drive with consecutive sacks against Lafayette. I expect enough interruptions today to make Washington carry meaningful possessions, and his inaccurate throws and forced attempts in the opener give me a concrete reason to question Maryland’s ability to finish every stretch of control with separation. UConn’s explosive passing and Osborne’s running give the Huskies ways to answer after Maryland scores. The risk is clear: Maryland recorded five sacks, and UConn committed two turnovers in its opener. If Maryland contains Osborne while disrupting his passing, those offensive answers can disappear. I’m backing Osborne’s ability to keep drives alive and create scoring opportunities through four quarters. That is the case for taking +11.5: Maryland can have the stronger stretches without pulling far enough away to cover.

Osborne’s ability to produce through the air and on the ground is the strongest reason I want these points. He passed for 265 yards and rushed for 90 against Lafayette, with Javon Brown supplying six catches for 92 yards. His running also carried into tougher circumstances in his previous bowl start against Louisville, when he rushed for 77 yards. That gives UConn a demonstrated way to extend possessions when the original passing opportunity disappears. My read is that his mobility will keep some Maryland defensive wins from becoming drive-ending stops.

Maryland’s running game is the strongest argument against this ticket. Its offensive success rate was 59.5% in the opener against UConn’s 51.4%, and its defense allowed successful plays just 23.1% of the time against UConn’s 27.8%. Sustaining that advantage would let Maryland control possessions and build separation. But Washington’s uneven passing performance matters here: he averaged 6 yards per attempt against Hampton, while Osborne averaged 10.19 against Lafayette. Maryland also converted its passing-down situations into successful plays less frequently, 31.3% against UConn’s 40.0%. Those are opening-game descriptions, but they identify where I expect UConn to keep the matchup competitive when possessions become harder.

UConn’s defense showed an ability to interrupt a promising drive with consecutive sacks against Lafayette. I expect enough interruptions today to make Washington carry meaningful possessions, and his inaccurate throws and forced attempts in the opener give me a concrete reason to question Maryland’s ability to finish every stretch of control with separation. UConn’s explosive passing and Osborne’s running give the Huskies ways to answer after Maryland scores.

The risk is clear: Maryland recorded five sacks, and UConn committed two turnovers in its opener. If Maryland contains Osborne while disrupting his passing, those offensive answers can disappear. I’m backing Osborne’s ability to keep drives alive and create scoring opportunities through four quarters. That is the case for taking +11.5: Maryland can have the stronger stretches without pulling far enough away to cover.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -126

Division rivals meet at Rogers Centre this afternoon, with Baltimore coming off a 7–4 win and Toronto looking to answer at home. I’m taking the Blue Jays at -126 because I trust their combination of baserunner prevention and late-inning pitching. Toronto’s starter carries a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP against Baltimore’s 3.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Both average 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The separation is in how successfully they have kept innings under control, and that matters when neither offense needs much help to turn a few opportunities into runs. The lineup construction gives Toronto additional support. Both confirmed orders contain five left-handed hitters, but Baltimore’s starter has allowed a .781 OPS to lefties compared with .673 for Toronto’s starter. Those splits describe different opponents across the season, so I’m treating them as supporting evidence rather than a direct forecast for these hitters. Toronto’s closer and primary setup arm also carry 1.24 and 1.78 ERAs. If the Blue Jays reach those arms with a lead, their strongest relief pitching gives this bet a credible finish. The strongest argument against Toronto is the stretch before those late innings. Baltimore scored nine and seven runs in its last two games, and Toronto’s starter worked between one and four innings in each of his last five appearances, including a 22-pitch relief outing on September 9. His season ERA includes relief work; I cannot price him as though it guarantees a conventional starter’s length today. That exposure keeps my confidence moderate. I still take Toronto because its starter’s baserunner prevention, the handedness matchup, and its strongest late relief collectively outweigh Baltimore’s recent offensive surge at this price. The moneyline fits that conviction.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

ADAEL AMADORH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -154

Amador has cleared this modest production line in 10 of his last 13 games and remains one of Colorado’s most dangerous current bats. He is hitting .333 with a 1.024 OPS overall, and his recent contact has translated into hits, runs and run-producing chances even while the Rockies’ offense has struggled around him. Andrew Sears is still working from a very small major-league sample, so I’m willing to trust Amador’s current form and lineup position at this price.

THE LONG SHOT

EDUARDO VALENCIAHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +440

Valencia is the long-shot swing I want in this matchup. He has legitimate impact against right-handed pitching, carrying a .313 average and .861 OPS in the split, and Tanner Gordon has allowed right-handed hitters a .836 OPS while giving up hard contact. Comerica trims the margin for error on home runs, but Valencia’s power profile and middle-of-the-order spot give him enough opportunity to justify the price.

GARY'S PICK

CLAY HOLMESPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -187

Holmes has issued at least two walks in seven of his last eight starts, and Pittsburgh’s lineup gives him nine walks per 100 plate appearances. His sinker-heavy approach can create traffic when the command is not precise, and the Pirates have enough left-handed bats to make him work. The price is steep, but two free passes remains the more likely outcome.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEX BREGMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +575

Bregman is seeing the ball well and just homered Friday, continuing a second-half surge that has restored his power production. He gets another look at a Pirates staff that had to burn through its pitching after losing its scheduled starter, while the wind is carrying toward right field. Paul Skenes is the obvious obstacle, but at this price Bregman’s current power form is worth the long-shot swing.

GARY'S PICK

GERRIT COLEPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -136

Cole has gone over this number in only three of his last eight starts, and the Mets lineup has just a 9% walk rate in the matchup data. His season average is 1.2 walks per start, and the Mets are not built to consistently extend at-bats against his fastball-slider combination. I’m backing Cole to finish with one walk or fewer.

GARY'S PICK

HELIOT RAMOSRBI UNDER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -200

Ramos is hitting fourth, but the RBI opportunity has not translated lately: he has driven in a run in only three of his last 15 games. He has also gone without an RBI in 12 of those 15. The lineup around him is dangerous, but that price is asking him to convert one of a limited number of chances, and I’m taking the under.

THE LONG SHOT

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDTHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +440

Goldschmidt is the home-run long shot I want. He draws a left-handed starter and owns a .315 average with a 1.012 OPS and 11 homers against lefties this season. He also leads off in Yankee Stadium, where the short right-field porch gives his pull power a little extra margin. The recent homer count is quiet, but this is the matchup on the board that gives him the clearest path to one swing.

Research

683

FANTASY USAGEvs CLE
Trevor Lawrence
START: Use Lawrence as the tiebreaker among the midrange Week 1 quarterbacks Why now: The provider projects Lawrence for 17.0 points, narrowly ahead of Kyler Murray at 16.4, C.J. Stroud at 16.2 and Bryce Young at 15.7. Lawrence also averaged 274.2 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns over his final five games of 2025, giving him the strongest supplied historical tiebreaker. Who it fits: Managers choosing among these midrange quarterbacks in a one-QB league. The risk: That five-game baseline is 251 days old, and the evidence contains no completed 2026 game for Lawrence. Watch next: Check for a confirmed starting designation before the September 13 kickoff at 17:00 UTC. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSat DET
Tanner Gordon
SIT: Protect ratios rather than chase this Detroit start Why now: Gordon is probable against a confirmed Detroit order, but his observed season marks are a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP [today, season]. His last five outings improved those figures to 4.15 and 1.27, yet produced only 6.23 K/9 [recent_pitcher]. The limited strikeout return does not justify the ratio exposure. Who it fits: Categories managers protecting ERA or WHIP, and points managers penalized heavily for hits and earned runs. The risk: Contact estimates are less pessimistic than his results: a .259 estimated average allowed versus .304 observed [expected_pitcher]. Watch next: Check whether the probable assignment holds and whether a future start combines better results with more strikeouts. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 01:10 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat DET
Adael Amador
WATCH: Do not chase the surface line until the contact catches up Why now: Amador has 3 homers and a 1.024 OPS through only 45 plate appearances, but his contact estimates are a .201 average and .323 slugging percentage versus observed marks of .333 and .615 [season, expected_hitter]. He is confirmed eighth today, reducing the immediate appeal despite the hot results [today]. Who it fits: Managers in deeper formats evaluating a speculative power bat rather than needing an immediate universal add. The risk: The production may continue: he has 11 hits and 2 homers across his last 10 observed games [recent_hitter]. Watch next: Check whether he remains in the lineup Sunday, where he bats, and whether subsequent contact results narrow the large expected-stat gap. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs BAL
Tyler Warren
START: Start Warren over Andrews when those are your Week 1 tight-end choices Why now: The provider estimates 6.9 targets and 12.2 PPR points for Warren, compared with 5.0 targets and 10.1 points for Mark Andrews. Warren also carries the advantage in half-PPR and standard projections. Who it fits: Managers deciding between Warren and Andrews at tight end in standard, half-PPR or PPR. The risk: Warren averaged only 26.6 receiving yards in his final five games of 2025, and there is no observed 2026 performance yet. Watch next: Check Warren's starting status before the September 13 kickoff at 17:00 UTC. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs NYM
Paul Goldschmidt
START: Use the confirmed leadoff assignment against a left-hander Why now: Goldschmidt is confirmed first against probable left-hander Zac Thornton [today]. His observed split against lefties is .315/.409/.603 with 11 homers in 146 at-bats, substantially stronger than his .568 OPS against righties [hand_splits_hitter]. This is a matchup-specific lineup call rather than a blanket endorsement. Who it fits: Managers seeking runs, average or power from first base, especially in daily categories or points lineups. The risk: Thornton has a 3.53 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while Goldschmidt's contact estimates trail his actual season production [opponent_pitchers, expected_hitter]. Watch next: Verify Thornton remains the opposing starter before the 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 01:35 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat CAR
Rome Odunze
START: Trust Odunze's projected volume in a PPR or half-PPR flex spot Why now: The provider estimates seven targets, 10.7 half-PPR points and 12.4 PPR points. His late-2025 sample also produced 34 targets across five games, so the projected opportunity is not disconnected from the historical baseline. Who it fits: Managers needing a receiver or flex in half-PPR or PPR, where the target estimate carries added value. The risk: He converted those 34 historical targets into only 13 catches and 188 yards, and no 2026 result is available to show improved efficiency. Watch next: Check for a confirmed starting designation before the September 13 kickoff at 17:00 UTC. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat MIN
MarShawn Lloyd
START: Prefer Lloyd to Brooks for the Green Bay backfield decision Why now: The provider estimates 14.8 carries and 11.1–12.7 fantasy points for Lloyd, versus 6.6 carries and 5.9–7.7 points for Chris Brooks. That projected workload gap makes Lloyd the more defensible RB2 or flex choice. Who it fits: Managers choosing between the supplied Green Bay running backs for an RB2 or flex slot. The risk: Neither player has a completed 2026 observation, and Lloyd's start is not confirmed. Watch next: Check any confirmed backfield starter or availability update before the September 13 kickoff at 20:25 UTC. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 04:25 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs PIT
Clay Holmes
START: Treat the eight-run blowup as one bad turn, not a reason to bench him Why now: Holmes allowed 8 earned runs last time out, but only 1 earned run across the preceding four observed starts [recent_pitcher]. His full-season 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP still support using him if the probable assignment holds [season, today]. Who it fits: Managers who need ERA, WHIP or a quality-start chance and can tolerate a below-average strikeout contribution. The risk: His contact estimates are materially worse than the observed results: .257 estimated average and .311 estimated wOBA versus .210 and .262 actual [expected_pitcher]. Watch next: Confirm the start and review Pittsburgh's posted batting order before first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 02:20 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat TOR
Kyle Bradish
SIT: Recent traffic makes this start too volatile for ratio protection Why now: Bradish has allowed 32 hits and 14 walks in 25 innings over his last five starts, producing a 5.04 ERA and 1.84 WHIP [recent_pitcher]. His season WHIP is also 1.42 [season]. Even with a probable assignment, that traffic makes the downside more important than the strikeout opportunity [today]. Who it fits: Categories managers defending ERA or WHIP, and points managers whose scoring punishes baserunners or short starts. The risk: Contact estimates are better than his actual season outcomes, including a .241 estimated average allowed versus .257 observed [expected_pitcher]. Watch next: Check whether the probable assignment holds and review Toronto's final batting order. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 03:07 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat LAC
Tyler Allgeier
SIT: Do not rely on Allgeier until Arizona's new backfield produces real evidence Why now: The provider estimates 8.6 carries and 6.2–7.5 fantasy points for Allgeier, below Jeremiyah Love's 11.6 carries and 10.2–13.9 points. Allgeier's five-game baseline came with Atlanta, so it does not establish his Arizona role. Who it fits: Managers with another viable running back or flex option, especially those also rostering Love. The risk: A rushing touchdown could overturn the modest projection; the provider assigns Allgeier 0.28 expected rushing touchdowns. Watch next: Check for a confirmed starter or materially clarified backfield order before the September 13 kickoff at 20:25 UTC. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 04:25 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSat WSH
Walbert Urena
CONSIDER ADD: Stream the Washington start if ratios matter and he is available Why now: Urena is probable at Washington after recording a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 29.2 innings over his last five starts [today, recent_pitcher]. His observed season baseline—2.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.50 K/9—supports this as a one-game stream, not merely a hot-week gamble [season]. Who it fits: Daily categories or points managers who can stream an available starter for ratios, strikeouts and a quality-start chance. The risk: He has issued 65 walks in 131.1 innings [season], and Washington had not posted today's batting order at collection time [today]. Watch next: Confirm Urena's assignment and inspect Washington's posted order before the 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 04:05 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs MIA
Michael Mayer
CONSIDER ADD: Mayer is the preferred speculative PPR tight-end add if he is available Why now: The provider estimates 5.3 targets and 9.3 PPR points for Mayer, versus 4.9 targets and 8.4 points for Dalton Schultz. Mayer also averaged 7.5 targets over his final two games of 2025, while Schultz averaged 4.0 over his final two. Who it fits: Managers seeking a PPR or half-PPR tight end and confirming Mayer is actually available in their league. The risk: The encouraging target sample is old and only two games; neither Mayer's current role nor a Week 1 start is confirmed. Watch next: After Week 1, check Mayer's actual targets and receptions before deciding whether he deserves a longer hold. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat SF
Michael King
START: Keep riding the run prevention despite modest recent strikeout volume Why now: King has allowed 5 earned runs across 31.2 innings in his last five starts, with three wins and a 1.14 WHIP [recent_pitcher]. His season workload adds a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 16 quality starts, supporting a start if his probable assignment holds [season, today]. Who it fits: Managers prioritizing ERA, WHIP, wins or quality starts over elite strikeout volume. The risk: His contact estimates are worse than his observed outcomes, including a .321 estimated wOBA versus .292 actual [expected_pitcher]. Watch next: Confirm the assignment and review San Francisco's posted batting order before first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 04:05 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Devaughn Vele
CONSIDER ADD: Vele offers the steadier historical profile among the low-rostered receiver fliers Why now: The provider estimates six targets and 9.3 PPR points for Vele. Tre Tucker has the higher immediate PPR estimate at 10.0, but Vele averaged 50.8 receiving yards over his final five games of 2025 compared with Tucker's 29.2, making Vele the more appealing bench evaluation if both are available. Who it fits: Managers in deeper PPR leagues seeking a bench receiver rather than an automatic Week 1 starter. The risk: Vele's baseline is 272 days old, and neither receiver has a completed 2026 game establishing current usage. Watch next: Compare Vele's and Tucker's actual Week 1 targets, receptions and receiving yards before making the longer-term choice. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET.
TRENCHESTTU @ ORST
TTU is +147 rush yards per game
TTU is at 173 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ORST is at 26 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUL @ USC
USC commits 1.5 fewer turnovers per game
UL is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; USC is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSSDSU @ UCLA
UCLA commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
SDSU is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; UCLA is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSBGSU @ NEB
NEB commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
BGSU is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; NEB is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUSU @ WASH
WASH commits 4 fewer turnovers per game
USU is at 4 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; WASH is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSMD @ CONN
MD commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
MD is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; CONN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSOU @ MICH
OU commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
OU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; MICH is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
MTSU is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSGAST @ KENN
GAST commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
GAST is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; KENN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSBUF @ FIU
BUF commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
BUF is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; FIU is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSWKU @ UGA
UGA commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
WKU is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; UGA is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSCAL @ SYR
SYR commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
CAL is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; SYR is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSNAVY @ FAU
NAVY commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
NAVY is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; FAU is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSMEM @ BOIS
BOIS commits 1.5 fewer turnovers per game
MEM is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUTSA @ TXST
UTSA commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
UTSA is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; TXST is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSARK @ UTAH
UTAH commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
ARK is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; UTAH is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSARIZ @ BYU
BYU commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
ARIZ is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; BYU is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSORE @ OKST
ORE commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
ORE is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; OKST is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSWSU @ KSU
KSU commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
Through 2026-09-11, KSU has committed 1 turnover per game to WSU’s 3, a two-turnover current-2026 gap. That separates their early possession outcomes, but one game per team is too little to define either side’s normal ball security.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
Mark Andrews
HOLD: Give Andrews one game before making a roster-level judgment Why now: The provider still estimates 10.1 PPR points for Andrews, but his final five games of 2025 averaged only 3.6 targets and 18 receiving yards with no touchdowns. With no completed 2026 evidence, holding through Week 1 preserves the chance to evaluate whether the forecast or the weak historical finish better reflects his role. Who it fits: Managers already rostering Andrews who can evaluate him for one game without depending on him as their only viable starter. The risk: Tyler Warren and Dallas Goedert carry higher supplied PPR projections at 12.2 and 10.9 points, respectively. Watch next: Check Andrews' Week 1 targets, receptions and receiving yards before deciding whether patience remains justified. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:03 PM ET.
TRENCHESUSM @ AUB
USM is +187 rush yards per game
USM is at 317 rushing yards per game over 1 game; AUB is at 130 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUL @ USC
UL is +91 rush yards per game
UL is at 243 rushing yards per game over 1 game; USC is at 152 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESBGSU @ NEB
NEB is +145 rush yards per game
BGSU is at 103 rushing yards per game over 1 game; NEB is at 248 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESMSST @ MINN
MSST is +198 rush yards per game
MSST is at 345 rushing yards per game over 1 game; MINN is at 147 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU is +152 rush yards per game
MTSU is at 196 rushing yards per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 44 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESDEL @ VAN
VAN is +122 rush yards per game
DEL is at 65 rushing yards per game over 1 game; VAN is at 187 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESWKU @ UGA
UGA is +108 rush yards per game
WKU is at 164 rushing yards per game over 1 game; UGA is at 272 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESGASO @ CLEM
GASO is +103 rush yards per game
GASO is at 143 rushing yards per game over 1 game; CLEM is at 40 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESTENN @ GT
TENN is +278 rush yards per game
TENN is at 329 rushing yards per game over 1 game; GT is at 51 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESDUKE @ ILL
DUKE is +100 rush yards per game
DUKE is at 250 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ILL is at 150 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESODU @ VT
VT is +86 rush yards per game
ODU is at 182 rushing yards per game over 1 game; VT is at 268 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESNAVY @ FAU
NAVY is +386 rush yards per game
NAVY is at 506 rushing yards per game over 1 game; FAU is at 120 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUSA @ TULN
USA is +187 rush yards per game
USA is at 241 rushing yards per game over 1 game; TULN is at 54 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESTLSA @ SHSU
TLSA is +96 rush yards per game
TLSA is at 134 rushing yards per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 38 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESMEM @ BOIS
MEM is +172 rush yards per game
MEM is at 265 rushing yards per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 93 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUTSA @ TXST
UTSA is +89 rush yards per game
UTSA is at 250 rushing yards per game over 1 game; TXST is at 161 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESRICE @ ND
RICE is +354 rush yards per game
RICE is at 465 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ND is at 111 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESAPP @ ECU
APP is +297 rush yards per game
APP is at 299 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ECU is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUSF @ ARMY
ARMY is +461 rush yards per game
USF is at 108 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ARMY is at 569 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESARK @ UTAH
UTAH is +216 rush yards per game
ARK is at 148 rushing yards per game over 1 game; UTAH is at 364 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESISU @ IOWA
IOWA is +181 rush yards per game
ISU is at 108 rushing yards per game over 1 game; IOWA is at 289 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESARIZ @ BYU
BYU is +102 rush yards per game
ARIZ is at 206 rushing yards per game over 1 game; BYU is at 308 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUCF @ PITT
UCF is +194 rush yards per game
UCF is at 360 rushing yards per game over 1 game; PITT is at 166 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESWSU @ KSU
KSU is +212 rush yards per game
Through 2026-09-11, KSU averages 312 rushing yards per game to WSU’s 100, a 212-YPG current-2026 gap. It suggests sharply different early rushing production, but one game per team cannot establish a durable identity.
SITUATIONALTLSA @ SHSU
TLSA's fourth-down conversion rate is 100 percentage points higher
TLSA is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; SHSU is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSM @ AUB
USM's fourth-down conversion rate is 100 percentage points higher
USM is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; AUB is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSU @ WASH
USU's third-down conversion rate is 26.7 percentage points higher
USU is at 60% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; WASH is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's third-down conversion rate is 33.8 percentage points higher
MTSU is at 42.9% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; MRSH is at 9.1% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALGASO @ CLEM
GASO moves the chains 14 more times per game
GASO is at 22 first downs per game over 1 game; CLEM is at 8 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALGASO @ CLEM
GASO's third-down conversion rate is 36.8 percentage points higher
GASO is at 44.4% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; CLEM is at 7.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWAKE @ PUR
WAKE's fourth-down conversion rate is 100 percentage points higher
WAKE is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; PUR is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALODU @ VT
VT moves the chains 14 more times per game
ODU is at 16 first downs per game over 1 game; VT is at 30 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALCLT @ MISS
CLT's third-down conversion rate is 25 percentage points higher
CLT is at 62.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; MISS is at 37.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSA @ TULN
USA moves the chains 17 more times per game
USA is at 27 first downs per game over 1 game; TULN is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALTLSA @ SHSU
SHSU's third-down conversion rate is 33.8 percentage points higher
TLSA is at 9.1% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; SHSU is at 42.9% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALULM @ UAB
UAB's third-down conversion rate is 33.9 percentage points higher
ULM is at 18.8% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; UAB is at 52.6% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALRICE @ ND
RICE's third-down conversion rate is 31.4 percentage points higher
RICE is at 64.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ND is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALAPP @ ECU
APP moves the chains 29 more times per game
APP is at 34 first downs per game over 1 game; ECU is at 5 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALAPP @ ECU
APP's third-down conversion rate is 28.6 percentage points higher
APP is at 28.6% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ECU is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSF @ ARMY
ARMY moves the chains 17 more times per game
USF is at 14 first downs per game over 1 game; ARMY is at 31 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSF @ ARMY
ARMY's third-down conversion rate is 28.2 percentage points higher
USF is at 38.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ARMY is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALPSU @ TEM
PSU's third-down conversion rate is 25 percentage points higher
PSU is at 50% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; TEM is at 25% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWSU @ KSU
KSU moves the chains 16 more times per game
WSU is at 18 first downs per game over 1 game; KSU is at 34 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWSU @ KSU
KSU's third-down conversion rate is 81.8 percentage points higher
WSU is at 0% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; KSU is at 81.8% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKUL @ USC
USC's passing game is +145.5 yards per game
UL is at 231 team passing yards per game over 1 game; USC is at 376.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKBUF @ FIU
FIU's passing game is +112 yards per game
BUF is at 189 team passing yards per game over 1 game; FIU is at 301 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKDEL @ VAN
DEL's passing game is +131 yards per game
DEL is at 340 team passing yards per game over 1 game; VAN is at 209 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKWKU @ UGA
UGA's passing game is +185 yards per game
WKU is at 203 team passing yards per game over 1 game; UGA is at 388 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKGASO @ CLEM
GASO's passing game is +176 yards per game
GASO is at 281 team passing yards per game over 1 game; CLEM is at 105 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKODU @ VT
VT's passing game is +214 yards per game
ODU is at 137 team passing yards per game over 1 game; VT is at 351 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKNAVY @ FAU
FAU's passing game is +255 yards per game
NAVY is at 21 team passing yards per game over 1 game; FAU is at 276 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKTLSA @ SHSU
SHSU's passing game is +108 yards per game
TLSA is at 227 team passing yards per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 335 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGTTU @ ORST
ORST's staff goes for it 4 more times per game on fourth down
TTU is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; ORST is at 5 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGARK @ UTAH
UTAH gives away 64 fewer penalty yards per game
ARK is at 74 penalty yards per game over 1 game; UTAH is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGUTSA @ TXST
TXST gives away 85 fewer penalty yards per game
UTSA is at 115 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TXST is at 30 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGTLSA @ SHSU
SHSU gives away 67 fewer penalty yards per game
TLSA is at 102 penalty yards per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 35 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGNAVY @ FAU
FAU's staff goes for it 4 more times per game on fourth down
NAVY is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; FAU is at 7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGCAL @ SYR
CAL gives away 66 fewer penalty yards per game
CAL is at 59 penalty yards per game over 1 game; SYR is at 125 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGBUF @ FIU
FIU gives away 69 fewer penalty yards per game
BUF is at 119 penalty yards per game over 1 game; FIU is at 50 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGMSST @ MINN
MINN gives away 68 fewer penalty yards per game
MSST is at 78 penalty yards per game over 1 game; MINN is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGMD @ CONN
MD gives away 64 fewer penalty yards per game
MD is at 70 penalty yards per game over 1 game; CONN is at 134 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKRICE @ ND
ND's passing game is +211 yards per game
RICE is at 28 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ND is at 239 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKAPP @ ECU
APP's passing game is +188 yards per game
APP is at 348 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ECU is at 160 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKPSU @ TEM
PSU's passing game is +182 yards per game
PSU is at 324 team passing yards per game over 1 game; TEM is at 142 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKUCF @ PITT
PITT's passing game is +280 yards per game
UCF is at 200 team passing yards per game over 1 game; PITT is at 480 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKORE @ OKST
ORE's passing game is +137 yards per game
ORE is at 378 team passing yards per game over 1 game; OKST is at 241 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKWSU @ KSU
KSU's passing game is +105 yards per game
KSU averaged 247 team passing yards per game to WSU’s 142, a +105 YPG gap over 1 game in current 2026 results through 2026-09-11. The early passing production favors KSU, but the one-game sample cannot show how firmly that reflects either side’s identity.
QUARTERBACKASU @ TA&M
ASU's passing game is +163 yards per game
ASU averaged 432 team passing yards per game to TA&M’s 269, a +163 YPG gap over 1 game in current 2026 results through 2026-09-11. That separates their passing output so far, but one game cannot establish which side dictates the matchup’s style.
PACE & SCRIPTLT @ LSU
LSU holds the ball 11:17 longer per game
LT is at 24:52 time of possession per game over 1 game; LSU is at 36:09 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTLT @ LSU
LT is scoring +29 points per game
LT is at 80 points per game over 1 game; LSU is at 51 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSM @ AUB
USM is scoring +32 points per game
USM is at 49 points per game over 1 game; AUB is at 17 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTBGSU @ NEB
NEB is scoring +36 points per game
BGSU is at 13 points per game over 1 game; NEB is at 49 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSU @ WASH
WASH's defense gives up 19 fewer points per game
USU is at 29 points allowed per game over 1 game; WASH is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTEMU @ MSU
MSU holds the ball 11:58 longer per game
EMU is at 31:18 time of possession per game over 2 games; MSU is at 43:16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTOU @ MICH
OU holds the ball 10:40 longer per game
OU is at 30:32 time of possession per game over 1 game; MICH is at 19:52 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTOU @ MICH
OU is scoring +38 points per game
OU is at 51 points per game over 1 game; MICH is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTNMSU @ HAW
NMSU is scoring +17.5 points per game
NMSU is at 34 points per game over 2 games; HAW is at 16.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's defense gives up 31 fewer points per game
MTSU is at 14 points allowed per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 45 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU is scoring +38 points per game
MTSU is at 38 points per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTJXST @ OHIO
JXST's defense gives up 29 fewer points per game
JXST is at 20 points allowed per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 49 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTDEL @ VAN
VAN holds the ball 15:04 longer per game
DEL is at 20:43 time of possession per game over 1 game; VAN is at 35:47 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTWKU @ UGA
UGA's defense gives up 46 fewer points per game
WKU is at 49 points allowed per game over 1 game; UGA is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTWKU @ UGA
UGA is scoring +49 points per game
WKU is at 14 points per game over 1 game; UGA is at 63 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTGASO @ CLEM
GASO's defense gives up 51 fewer points per game
GASO is at 0 points allowed per game over 1 game; CLEM is at 51 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTGASO @ CLEM
GASO is scoring +21 points per game
GASO is at 31 points per game over 1 game; CLEM is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTTENN @ GT
TENN is scoring +43 points per game
TENN is at 56 points per game over 1 game; GT is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTDUKE @ ILL
DUKE holds the ball 17:38 longer per game
DUKE is at 36:35 time of possession per game over 1 game; ILL is at 18:57 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTDUKE @ ILL
DUKE's defense gives up 20 fewer points per game
DUKE is at 3 points allowed per game over 1 game; ILL is at 23 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTDUKE @ ILL
ILL is scoring +25 points per game
DUKE is at 17 points per game over 1 game; ILL is at 42 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTCAL @ SYR
SYR is scoring +42 points per game
CAL is at 24 points per game over 1 game; SYR is at 66 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTODU @ VT
VT is scoring +42 points per game
ODU is at 31 points per game over 1 game; VT is at 73 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTNAVY @ FAU
NAVY holds the ball 11:26 longer per game
NAVY is at 39:50 time of possession per game over 1 game; FAU is at 28:24 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTNAVY @ FAU
NAVY's defense gives up 51 fewer points per game
NAVY is at 15 points allowed per game over 1 game; FAU is at 66 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTNAVY @ FAU
NAVY is scoring +21 points per game
NAVY is at 42 points per game over 1 game; FAU is at 21 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSA @ TULN
USA holds the ball 16:44 longer per game
USA is at 40:09 time of possession per game over 1 game; TULN is at 23:25 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSA @ TULN
USA is scoring +36 points per game
USA is at 39 points per game over 1 game; TULN is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUNLV @ UNT
UNLV's defense gives up 35.5 fewer points per game
UNLV is at 16.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; UNT is at 52 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTULM @ UAB
UAB's defense gives up 20 fewer points per game
ULM is at 62 points allowed per game over 1 game; UAB is at 42 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUTSA @ TXST
UTSA's defense gives up 43 fewer points per game
UTSA is at 16 points allowed per game over 1 game; TXST is at 59 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUTSA @ TXST
UTSA is scoring +38 points per game
UTSA is at 45 points per game over 1 game; TXST is at 7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTAPP @ ECU
APP holds the ball 12:02 longer per game
APP is at 33:09 time of possession per game over 1 game; ECU is at 21:07 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTAPP @ ECU
APP is scoring +45 points per game
APP is at 55 points per game over 1 game; ECU is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSF @ ARMY
ARMY is scoring +40 points per game
USF is at 19 points per game over 1 game; ARMY is at 59 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTARK @ UTAH
UTAH is scoring +35 points per game
ARK is at 31 points per game over 1 game; UTAH is at 66 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTISU @ IOWA
IOWA holds the ball 10:43 longer per game
ISU is at 23:08 time of possession per game over 1 game; IOWA is at 33:51 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTTTU @ ORST
TTU's defense gives up 23 fewer points per game
TTU is at 10 points allowed per game over 1 game; ORST is at 33 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTARIZ @ BYU
BYU is scoring +28 points per game
ARIZ is at 35 points per game over 1 game; BYU is at 63 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTORE @ OKST
ORE is scoring +24 points per game
ORE is at 34 points per game over 1 game; OKST is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTWSU @ KSU
KSU's defense gives up 21 fewer points per game
KSU allowed 3 points per game to WSU’s 24, a defensive gap of 21 PPG over 1 game in current 2026 results through 2026-09-11. That separates their defensive results so far, but one game does not establish which defense can dictate this matchup.
PACE & SCRIPTWSU @ KSU
KSU is scoring +61 points per game
KSU averaged 71 points per game to WSU’s 10, a +61 PPG gap over 1 game in current 2026 results through 2026-09-11. That is a wide early scoring separation, but one result cannot establish how their identities will collide.
PACE & SCRIPTASU @ TA&M
TA&M holds the ball 13:15 longer per game
TA&M averaged 43:03 time of possession per game to ASU’s 29:48, a 13:15 TOP advantage over 1 game in current 2026 results through 2026-09-11. That shows sharply different possession totals so far, not which team will control this matchup.
PACE & SCRIPTASU @ TA&M
ASU is scoring +20 points per game
ASU averaged 70 points per game to TA&M’s 50, a +20 PPG gap over 1 game in current 2026 results through 2026-09-11. The scoring difference is clear, but the one-game sample does not yet define either team’s identity.
FANTASY PICKUPSat MIA
Tyler Glasnow
START: The strikeout foundation outweighs three uneven recent starts Why now: Glasnow's observed season line is a 3.12 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 10.92 K/9 across 57.2 innings [season]. His last three starts carried a 4.00 ERA but still produced 21 strikeouts in 18 innings, so the recent earned runs have not erased his category-changing strikeout value [recent_pitcher]. Who it fits: Categories managers seeking strikeouts with ratio support and points managers rewarding innings and strikeouts. The risk: He allowed 4 earned runs and three walks in his latest start, while today's Miami order was not posted at collection time [recent_pitcher, today]. Watch next: Confirm Glasnow remains the starter and review Miami's posted order before the 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 04:10 PM ET.
TURNOVERSUSM @ AUB
USM commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
USM is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; AUB is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALOU @ MICH
OU's third-down conversion rate is 24.5 percentage points higher
OU is at 54.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; MICH is at 30% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESOSU @ TEX
OSU is +81 rush yards per game
OSU is at 237 rushing yards per game over 1 game; TEX is at 156 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTMEM @ BOIS
Jacob Tracy (OL) is out for the season for BOIS
Jacob Tracy suffered an unspecified season-ending injury before Week 1, as reported Sep. 7. This is a season-long loss for Boise State’s offensive line, not a late game-status decision; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTDEL @ VAN
Cole Spence (TE) is out for VAN
Cole Spence was ruled out against Delaware with a lower-body injury and remained week-to-week as of Sep. 10. Vanderbilt loses a tight end from its offense for this game, but no replacement or workload split was supplied.
REPLACEMENTMSST @ MINN
Ryan Estrada (RB) is out for the season for MINN
Estrada suffered a knee injury against Eastern Illinois and will miss the remainder of the season. Per Minnesota Star Tribune, Sep 7.
REPLACEMENTDUKE @ ILL
Tanner Hollinger (TE) is out for the season for ILL
Illinois’ offense will be without TE Tanner Hollinger against Duke and beyond after he was reported OUT FOR SEASON with an undisclosed injury on Sep. 8. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
REPLACEMENTDUKE @ ILL
BJ Thurman (TE) is out for the season for ILL
Illinois’ offense will be without TE BJ Thurman against Duke and beyond after he was reported OUT FOR SEASON following foot surgery on Sep. 8. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
REPLACEMENTDUKE @ ILL
Jayshon Platt (WR) is out for ILL
Illinois’ offense will be without WR Jayshon Platt against Duke; Bret Bielema confirmed on Sep. 10 that Platt would not play while recovering from an undisclosed soft-tissue injury. No replacement workload is supplied.
REPLACEMENTRICE @ ND
Quinton Jackson (RB) is out for RICE
Rice’s offense will be without RB Quinton Jackson against Notre Dame; he will travel but will not play after the significant undisclosed injury reported Sep. 10. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
COVERAGEWSU @ KSU
KSU's secondary gives up 238 fewer passing yards per game
Through 2026-09-11, KSU allowed 30 passing yards per game over 1 game, 238 fewer than WSU’s 268, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. One game without opponent or passing-volume context cannot separate secondary quality from schedule and script.
COVERAGEUCF @ PITT
UCF's secondary gives up 187 fewer passing yards per game
Through 2026-09-11, UCF allowed 74 passing yards per game over 1 game, 187 fewer than PITT’s 261, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. Opponent quality and offensive approach are not supplied, limiting what the one-game comparison says about either secondary.
COVERAGETTU @ ORST
TTU's secondary gives up 186 fewer passing yards per game
Through 2026-09-11, TTU allowed 119 passing yards per game over 1 game, 186 fewer than ORST’s 305, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. The facts do not supply opponent quality or how those offenses attacked, so the one-game gap cannot isolate secondary strength.
COVERAGEUSF @ ARMY
ARMY's secondary gives up 203 fewer passing yards per game
Through 2026-09-11, ARMY allowed 98 passing yards per game over 1 game, 203 fewer than USF’s 301, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. Without opponent quality or passing-volume context, the one-game gap cannot distinguish secondary strength from schedule and script.
COVERAGERICE @ ND
RICE's secondary gives up 121 fewer passing yards per game
RICE is at 96 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ND is at 217 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEULM @ UAB
UAB's secondary gives up 235 fewer passing yards per game
ULM is at 417 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; UAB is at 182 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUSA @ TULN
USA allows a third-down conversion rate 44.4 percentage points lower
USA is at 0% third downs allowed over 1 game; TULN is at 44.4% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGENAVY @ FAU
NAVY's secondary gives up 136 fewer passing yards per game
NAVY is at 207 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; FAU is at 343 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGENAVY @ FAU
NAVY allows a third-down conversion rate 30.6 percentage points lower
NAVY is at 25% third downs allowed over 1 game; FAU is at 55.6% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGECLT @ MISS
CLT's secondary gives up 188 fewer passing yards per game
CLT is at 119 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MISS is at 307 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEGASO @ CLEM
GASO's secondary gives up 300 fewer passing yards per game
GASO is at 35 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; CLEM is at 335 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEGASO @ CLEM
GASO allows a third-down conversion rate 52.1 percentage points lower
GASO is at 16.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; CLEM is at 68.8% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEJXST @ OHIO
JXST's secondary gives up 148 fewer passing yards per game
JXST is at 127 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 275 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEGAST @ KENN
KENN allows a third-down conversion rate 28.6 percentage points lower
GAST is at 28.6% third downs allowed over 1 game; KENN is at 0% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's secondary gives up 179 fewer passing yards per game
MTSU is at 145 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 324 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEOU @ MICH
OU allows a third-down conversion rate 29.1 percentage points lower
OU is at 15.4% third downs allowed over 1 game; MICH is at 44.4% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUSU @ WASH
WASH allows a third-down conversion rate 33.3 percentage points lower
USU is at 33.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; WASH is at 0% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEOSU @ TEX
OSU allows a third-down conversion rate 35.7 percentage points lower
OSU is at 21.4% third downs allowed over 1 game; TEX is at 57.1% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUSM @ AUB
USM's secondary gives up 214 fewer passing yards per game
USM is at 119 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; AUB is at 333 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSASU @ TA&M
TA&M's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
Through 2026-09-11, TA&M averaged 2 takeaways over 1 game, 2 more per game than ASU’s 0 over 1 game, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. With no opponent-quality or offensive-style context supplied, the early gap cannot show whether schedule or script protected either defense.
TRENCHESMSST @ MINN
MINN's front holds runners to 87 fewer yards per game
MSST is at 138 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MINN is at 51 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEALA @ UK
ALA allows a third-down conversion rate 53.3 percentage points lower
ALA is at 0% third downs allowed over 1 game; UK is at 53.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTMD @ CONN
Zahir Mathis (LB) is out for the season for MD
Mathis remains out for the 2026 season with a leg injury suffered during fall camp. Per Punt & Rally, Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTMD @ CONN
Josiah Teasley (WR) is out for MD
Teasley continues to practice but will not play while his legal matter proceeds. Per Inside the Black and Gold, Sep 9.
TURNOVERSUL @ USC
UL's defense takes the ball away 3 more times per game
UL is at 4 takeaways per game over 1 game; USC is at 1 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTNAVY @ FAU
Brooks Johnson (TE) is out for FAU
FAU ruled TE Brooks Johnson out against Navy with an undisclosed injury and no definite return timeline. The absence affects the offense, but the supplied facts do not identify who takes his work.
TURNOVERSOSU @ TEX
TEX's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
OSU is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; TEX is at 3 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTISU @ IOWA
L.J. Phillips Jr. (RB) is out for IOWA
Iowa ruled RB L.J. Phillips Jr. out against Iowa State after a high ankle sprain versus Northern Illinois. The absence falls on the offense, but the supplied facts do not identify who absorbs his workload.
REPLACEMENTTTU @ ORST
Jeremiah Ioane (LB) is out for the season for ORST
Jeremiah Ioane was confirmed out for the season with an unspecified injury, as reported Sep. 7. Oregon State’s defense loses a linebacker for the season, but the supplied facts do not identify who absorbs his work.
REPLACEMENTTTU @ ORST
T'Andre Waverly (TE) is out for the season for ORST
T’Andre Waverly was confirmed out for the season with a leg injury, as reported Sep. 7. Oregon State’s offense loses a tight end for the season, but no replacement or workload distribution was supplied.
TURNOVERSGAST @ KENN
KENN's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
GAST is at 0 takeaways per game over 1 game; KENN is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTTENN @ GT
Jaedon Harmon (LB) is out for the season for TENN
Jaedon Harmon tore the ACL in his right knee during an August practice and was reported Sep. 7 as out for the 2026 season. Tennessee’s defense loses a linebacker for the full season, with no replacement identified.
REPLACEMENTTENN @ GT
Joakim Dodson (WR) is out for the season for TENN
Joakim Dodson suffered a season-ending leg injury on a kickoff return against Furman, as reported Sep. 7. Tennessee loses a wide receiver for the season; the facts do not identify who takes his offensive or return work.
REPLACEMENTUSA @ TULN
Jamauri McClure (RB) is out for TULN
Jamauri McClure was reported out Sep. 11 with a foot injury sustained during fall camp. Tulane’s offense will be without a running back against South Alabama, but no replacement or workload split was supplied.
REPLACEMENTASU @ TA&M
Madden Williams (WR) is out for the season for TA&M
Madden Williams will undergo surgery for a lower-body injury and miss the rest of the season, Mike Elko said Sep. 6. The season-long absence affects Texas A&M’s receiving corps against Arizona State; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTORE @ OKST
Dillon Gresham (WR) is out for ORE
Dillon Gresham remained out Sep. 9 with the neck injury that ended his 2025 season, and his football future is uncertain. Oregon’s receiving corps will be without him at Oklahoma State; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTORE @ OKST
Jalen Lott (WR) is out for ORE
Jalen Lott will not play at Oklahoma State after minor corrective hand surgery, Chris Hansen reported Sep. 9. The confirmed absence affects Oregon’s receiving corps, but the report did not identify who takes his work.
REPLACEMENTORE @ OKST
Simeon Price (RB) is out for ORE
Simeon Price was still listed out Sep. 9 after not dressing against Boise State, with no reason disclosed. Oregon’s backfield will be without him at Oklahoma State, but the report does not identify who absorbs his work.
REPLACEMENTORE @ OKST
Jacob Sexton (OL) is out for the season for OKST
Jacob Sexton broke his lower right leg against Tulsa and will miss the rest of the season, Matt Postins reported Sep. 9. The season-long absence affects Oklahoma State’s offensive line against Oregon; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTWAKE @ PUR
Kylan Fox (TE) is out for the season for PUR
Kylan Fox remained out for the entire 2026 season with a knee injury suffered in fall camp, Punt & Rally reported Sep. 10. Purdue’s offense will be without the tight end against Wake Forest; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTWAKE @ PUR
Raderrion Daniels (DB) is out for the season for PUR
Raderrion Daniels remained out for the entire 2026 season with a knee injury suffered in fall camp, Punt & Rally reported Sep. 10. Purdue’s defense will be without the defensive back against Wake Forest; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTOU @ MICH
Ace Hamilton (OL) is out for the season for MICH
Ace Hamilton was reported Sep. 10 as out for the 2026 season with a lower-leg injury suffered during fall camp. The season-long absence affects Michigan’s offensive line against Oklahoma; no replacement was identified.
REPLACEMENTWKU @ UGA
Dante Dowdell (RB) is out for UGA
Dowdell was reported out while recovering from serious injuries sustained in an offseason ATV accident. Per University of Georgia Athletics, Sep 8.
TURNOVERSTLSA @ SHSU
TLSA's defense takes the ball away 4 more times per game
TLSA is at 4 takeaways per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTARIZ @ BYU
Sione Moa (RB) is out for the season for BYU
He was reported lost for the season after tearing the MCL and PCL in his knee against Utah Tech. Per Jackson Payne, Deseret News, Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTARIZ @ BYU
Jovesa Damuni (RB) is out for BYU
BYU's availability report listed him out against Arizona with no injury disclosed. Per Jackson Payne, Deseret News, Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTARIZ @ BYU
Jacob Nye (TE) is out for BYU
BYU's availability report listed him out against Arizona with no injury disclosed. Per Jackson Payne, Deseret News, Sep 9.
TURNOVERSDEL @ VAN
DEL's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
DEL is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; VAN is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALTENN @ GT
TENN moves the chains 12 more times per game
TENN is at 29 first downs per game over 1 game; GT is at 17 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUTSA @ TXST
TXST's third-down conversion rate is 23.8 percentage points higher
UTSA is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; TXST is at 57.1% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTRICE @ ND
Quincy Porter (WR) is out for ND
Notre Dame’s offense will be without WR Quincy Porter against Rice after he was listed OUT with a left-knee injury on Sep. 10. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
REPLACEMENTJXST @ OHIO
Mac Sanders (LB) is out for the season for JXST
A second MRI confirmed Mac Sanders’ upper-body injury was season-ending, as reported Sep. 8. Jacksonville State’s defense loses a linebacker for the season, but the supplied facts do not identify who absorbs his work.
REPLACEMENTCAL @ SYR
Nate Edwards (WR) is out for SYR
Syracuse’s offense will be without WR Nate Edwards against California after the Sep. 10 availability report listed him OUT with an undisclosed injury. No replacement workload is supplied.
REPLACEMENTGASO @ CLEM
Peyton Streko (RB) is out for the season for CLEM
Clemson RB Peyton Streko was reported out for the remainder of the season on Sep. 12 with an undisclosed injury. That removes him from the offense beyond the Georgia Southern matchup; no replacement workload is supplied.
TURNOVERSUSF @ ARMY
USF's defense takes the ball away 3 more times per game
USF is at 3 takeaways per game over 1 game; ARMY is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSODU @ VT
ODU's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
ODU is at 3 takeaways per game over 1 game; VT is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHLT @ LSU
LSU's clock control — 36:09 of possession a game to LT's 24:52
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — LT 24:52, LSU 36:09, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUSM @ AUB
USM's ground game against AUB's — 317 rush yards a game to 130
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — USM 317, AUB 130, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUL @ USC
USC's passing attack against UL's — 376.5 pass yards a game to 231
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — UL 231, USC 376.5, over 1 and 2 game samples.
MISMATCHOSU @ TEX
TEX on the money downs — 73.3% on third down to OSU's 45.5%
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: 3rd down % — OSU 45.5, TEX 73.3, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHSDSU @ UCLA
UCLA's ball security against SDSU's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to UCLA's 1
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — SDSU 3, UCLA 1, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHBGSU @ NEB
NEB's ground game against BGSU's — 248 rush yards a game to 103
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — BGSU 103, NEB 248, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUSU @ WASH
WASH's ball security against USU's giveaways — 4 turnovers a game to WASH's 0
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — USU 4, WASH 0, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHMD @ CONN
MD's ball security against CONN's giveaways — 2 turnovers a game to MD's 0
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — MD 0, CONN 2, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHEMU @ MSU
MSU's clock control — 43:16 of possession a game to EMU's 31:18
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — EMU 31:18, MSU 43:16, over 2 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHMSST @ MINN
MSST's ground game against MINN's — 345 rush yards a game to 147
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — MSST 345, MINN 147, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHOU @ MICH
OU's ball security against MICH's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to OU's 1
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — OU 1, MICH 3, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's defense against MRSH's — MTSU allows 14 a game, MRSH 45
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — MTSU 14, MRSH 45, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHGAST @ KENN
GAST's ball security against KENN's giveaways — 2 turnovers a game to GAST's 0
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — GAST 0, KENN 2, over 1 and 1 game samples.
REPLACEMENTDUKE @ ILL
Alex Perry (WR) is out for the season for ILL
Illinois’ offense will be without WR Alex Perry against Duke and beyond after he was reported OUT FOR SEASON with a shoulder injury on Sep. 8. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
COVERAGEUTSA @ TXST
UTSA allows a third-down conversion rate 34.4 percentage points lower
UTSA is at 38.9% third downs allowed over 1 game; TXST is at 73.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHJXST @ OHIO
JXST's defense against OHIO's — JXST allows 20 a game, OHIO 49
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — JXST 20, OHIO 49, over 2 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHBUF @ FIU
BUF's ball security against FIU's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to BUF's 1
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — BUF 1, FIU 3, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHDEL @ VAN
VAN's ground game against DEL's — 187 rush yards a game to 65
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — DEL 65, VAN 187, over 1 and 1 game samples.
QUARTERBACKARIZ @ BYU
ARIZ's passing game is +101 yards per game
ARIZ is at 314 team passing yards per game over 1 game; BYU is at 213 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEBGSU @ NEB
BGSU allows a third-down conversion rate 30 percentage points lower
BGSU is at 10% third downs allowed over 1 game; NEB is at 40% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHWKU @ UGA
UGA's defense against WKU's — UGA allows 3 a game, WKU 49
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — WKU 49, UGA 3, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHGASO @ CLEM
GASO's defense against CLEM's — GASO allows 0 a game, CLEM 51
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — GASO 0, CLEM 51, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COVERAGEPSU @ TEM
PSU allows a third-down conversion rate 33.8 percentage points lower
Through 2026-09-11, PSU allowed a 9.1% third-down rate over 1 game, getting off the field 33.8% more often than TEM at 42.9%, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. Down-and-distance and opponent-quality context are not supplied, limiting the one-game comparison.
MISMATCHTENN @ GT
TENN's ground game against GT's — 329 rush yards a game to 51
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — TENN 329, GT 51, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COVERAGEDUKE @ ILL
DUKE allows a third-down conversion rate 31.2 percentage points lower
DUKE is at 21.4% third downs allowed over 1 game; ILL is at 52.6% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHDUKE @ ILL
DUKE's clock control — 36:35 of possession a game to ILL's 18:57
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — DUKE 36:35, ILL 18:57, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COVERAGEJXST @ OHIO
JXST allows a third-down conversion rate 32.3 percentage points lower
JXST is at 32% third downs allowed over 2 games; OHIO is at 64.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHCAL @ SYR
SYR's defense against CAL's — SYR allows 3 a game, CAL 45
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — CAL 45, SYR 3, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHODU @ VT
VT's passing attack against ODU's — 351 pass yards a game to 137
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — ODU 137, VT 351, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHNAVY @ FAU
NAVY's ground game against FAU's — 506 rush yards a game to 120
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — NAVY 506, FAU 120, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUSA @ TULN
USA's ground game against TULN's — 241 rush yards a game to 54
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — USA 241, TULN 54, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHTLSA @ SHSU
SHSU on the money downs — 42.9% on third down to TLSA's 9.1%
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: 3rd down % — TLSA 9.1, SHSU 42.9, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHMEM @ BOIS
MEM's ground game against BOIS's — 265 rush yards a game to 93
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — MEM 265, BOIS 93, over 2 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUNLV @ UNT
UNLV's defense against UNT's — UNLV allows 16.5 a game, UNT 52
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — UNLV 16.5, UNT 52, over 2 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHULM @ UAB
UAB on the money downs — 52.6% on third down to ULM's 18.8%
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: 3rd down % — ULM 18.8, UAB 52.6, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUTSA @ TXST
UTSA's defense against TXST's — UTSA allows 16 a game, TXST 59
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — UTSA 16, TXST 59, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COACHINGLT @ LSU
LT gives away 60 fewer penalty yards per game
LT is at 15 penalty yards per game over 1 game; LSU is at 75 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHRICE @ ND
RICE's ground game against ND's — 465 rush yards a game to 111
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — RICE 465, ND 111, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHAPP @ ECU
APP's ground game against ECU's — 299 rush yards a game to 2
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — APP 299, ECU 2, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHUSF @ ARMY
ARMY's ground game against USF's — 569 rush yards a game to 108
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — USF 108, ARMY 569, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHPSU @ TEM
PSU's passing attack against TEM's — 324 pass yards a game to 142
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — PSU 324, TEM 142, over 1 and 1 game samples.
MISMATCHARK @ UTAH
UTAH's ground game against ARK's — 364 rush yards a game to 148
UTAH averaged 364 rushing yards over one game, while ARK averaged 148 over one game. The ground-game contrast could define the matchup, but no defensive rushing figures show how ARK can contain it.
MISMATCHISU @ IOWA
IOWA's ground game against ISU's — 289 rush yards a game to 108
IOWA averaged 289 rushing yards over one game, compared with ISU’s 108 over one game. The ground game is the clearest early contrast, though no defensive rushing figures show how ISU matches it.
MISMATCHTTU @ ORST
TTU's ground game against ORST's — 173 rush yards a game to 26
TTU averaged 173 rushing yards over one game, while ORST averaged 26 over one game. The ground-game contrast could shape possession and pace, but no defensive rushing figures are supplied.
PACE & SCRIPTUTSA @ TXST
UTSA @ TXST carries a 66.5 market total
UTSA @ TXST’s current FanDuel total is 66.5, 12 points above the 54.5 median across 43 games with posted totals on this slate, setting an unusually high scoring expectation. That view would crack if scoring finishes closer to the slate median.
PACE & SCRIPTISU @ IOWA
ISU @ IOWA carries a 41.5 market total
ISU @ IOWA’s current FanDuel total is 41.5, 13 points below the 54.5 median across 43 games with posted totals on this slate, signaling unusually limited scoring. That expectation would crack if scoring lands closer to the slate median.
MISMATCHARIZ @ BYU
BYU's ball security against ARIZ's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to BYU's 0
BYU committed 0 turnovers over one game, compared with ARIZ’s 3 over one game. Protecting possessions is the clearest early divide, though both figures come from one-game samples.
MISMATCHUCF @ PITT
PITT's passing attack against UCF's — 480 pass yards a game to 200
PITT averaged 480 passing yards over one game, while UCF averaged 200 over one game. The matchup turns toward whether UCF can limit PITT’s passing production or keep pace with it.
MISMATCHORE @ OKST
ORE's ball security against OKST's giveaways — 4 turnovers a game to ORE's 1
ORE committed 1 turnover over one game, compared with OKST’s 4 over one game. Possession security is the sharpest early contrast, though neither offense has more than a one-game sample.
REPLACEMENTUSU @ WASH
Quaid Carr (RB) is out for WASH
Carr will undergo surgery for a hand injury and is expected to be sidelined for a while. Per Cameron Van Til, Seattle Sports, Sep 8.
REPLACEMENTUSU @ WASH
Jayden Limar (RB) is out for WASH
Limar suffered an elbow injury and is expected to be sidelined for a while. Per Cameron Van Til, Seattle Sports, Sep 8.
MISMATCHWSU @ KSU
KSU on the money downs — 81.8% on third down to WSU's 0%
KSU converted 81.8% of third downs over one game, while WSU converted 0% over one game. Sustaining and ending drives on third down is the clearest early collision.
MISMATCHASU @ TA&M
ASU's passing attack against TA&M's — 432 pass yards a game to 269
ASU averaged 432 passing yards over one game, compared with TA&M’s 269 over one game. That contrast centers the matchup on whether TA&M can keep pace through the air.
REPLACEMENTOSU @ TEX
Derrek Cooper (RB) is out for TEX
Texas ruled RB Derrek Cooper out against Ohio State after he injured his right foot or ankle versus Texas State. The absence falls on the offense, but the supplied facts do not identify who absorbs his workload.
REPLACEMENTGASO @ CLEM
Hevin Brown-Shuler (DT) is out for the season for CLEM
Clemson DT Hevin Brown-Shuler was reported out for the 2026 season on Sep. 6 while undergoing treatment following a Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosis. That removes him from the defense for the Georgia Southern matchup and the rest of the season; no replacement is identified.
REPLACEMENTGASO @ CLEM
Markus Strong (DT) is out for the season for CLEM
Clemson DT Markus Strong was listed out for the season after a lower-leg injury against LSU, though the Sep. 7 report described him as likely out for the season. The defense absorbs the absence, but no replacement is identified.
REPLACEMENTGASO @ CLEM
Cole Turner (WR) is out for CLEM
Clemson WR Cole Turner remains away from the program for personal reasons and is out against Georgia Southern, with no definitive return timetable. The absence affects the offense, but no replacement workload is supplied.
REPLACEMENTUSU @ WASH
Jordan Washington (RB) is out for WASH
Washington remains uncleared for contact while recovering from a neck injury, although the team is optimistic he could return later this season. Per Roman Tomashoff, Huskies Wire, Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTCAL @ SYR
Terrell Wilfong (WR) is out for SYR
Syracuse’s offense will be without WR Terrell Wilfong against California after the Sep. 10 availability report listed him OUT following a broken collarbone. No replacement workload is supplied.
REPLACEMENTALA @ UK
Noah Rogers (WR) is out for ALA
He was listed out with a knee injury on the Friday availability report. Per Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, Hunter De Siver, Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTALA @ UK
AK Dear (RB) is out for ALA
He was recovering from an ankle injury and was downgraded from questionable to out Friday. Per Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, Hunter De Siver, Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTALA @ UK
Jeremiah Beaman (DL) is out for the season for ALA
He suffered a season-ending ACL tear and was listed out for the Kentucky game. Per Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, Hunter De Siver, Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTUNLV @ UNT
Cohen Fuller (DL) is out for the season for UNLV
Fuller is unavailable for the season after his eligibility injunction was denied. Per Punt & Rally, Sep 10.
TRENCHESLT @ LSU
LSU is +77 rush yards per game
LT is at 232 rushing yards per game over 1 game; LSU is at 309 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's passing game is +97 yards per game
MTSU is at 200 team passing yards per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 103 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHCLT @ MISS
CLT on the money downs — 62.5% on third down to MISS's 37.5%
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: 3rd down % — CLT 62.5, MISS 37.5, over 1 and 1 game samples.
REPLACEMENTALA @ UK
Michael Carroll (OL) is out for ALA
He suffered a concussion during practice this week and was downgraded from doubtful to out Friday. Per Tuscaloosa Thread, Wyatt Fulton, Sep 11.
PLATOON EDGENYM @ NYY
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt has a 1.012 OPS in 146 AB vs. lefties, compared with .568 in 180 AB vs. righties. He leads off tonight against LHP Zac Thornton, aligning the 1st spot with his stronger measured split.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
COACHINGUSA @ TULN
USA gives away 57 fewer penalty yards per game
USA is at 47 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TULN is at 104 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGORE @ OKST
OKST's staff goes for it 3 more times per game on fourth down
ORE is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; OKST is at 6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGASU @ TA&M
ASU's staff goes for it 3 more times per game on fourth down
ASU is at 5 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; TA&M is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUTSA @ TXST
UTSA's secondary gives up 115 fewer passing yards per game
UTSA is at 245 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TXST is at 360 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTRICE @ ND
Matty Augustine (OL) is out for ND
He was listed out for the Rice game with a right-foot injury. Per One Foot Down / Joshua Vowles, Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTRICE @ ND
Christopher Burgess Jr. (DL) is out for ND
He was listed out for the Rice game with a left-tibia injury. Per One Foot Down / Joshua Vowles, Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTCAL @ SYR
D'Joni Scatliffe (OL) is out for SYR
He was listed out against California with an undisclosed injury. Per ACC availability report via Jake Curtis, California Golden Bears On SI, Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTCAL @ SYR
Jackson Iak (OL) is out for SYR
He was listed out against California with an undisclosed injury. Per ACC availability report via Jake Curtis, California Golden Bears On SI, Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTUNLV @ UNT
Austin Boyd (OL) is out for UNLV
Boyd has a leg injury, and Dan Mullen said he is expected to remain out for a couple more weeks. Per Mike Cooper, The Scarlet Standard, Sep 8.
REPLACEMENTARIZ @ BYU
Ezra Funa (DL) is out for ARIZ
The availability report listed him out against BYU with no injury disclosed. Per Mitch Harper, KSL Sports, Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTPSU @ TEM
LaVar Arrington II (DE) is out for PSU
He underwent cleanup surgery after a late-camp injury and was given a four-to-six-week recovery timetable. Per Penn State Athletics, Sep 8.
REPLACEMENTPSU @ TEM
Giakoby Hills (OL) is out for TEM
He was injured against Rhode Island and was confirmed to be sidelined for at least six weeks. Per The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sep 7.
REPLACEMENTPSU @ TEM
Luke Watson (OL) is out for TEM
He was confirmed unavailable for Saturday amid Temple's offensive-line injuries. Per The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTDEL @ VAN
Jaylin Lackey (CB) is out for VAN
Lackey was ruled out against Delaware with a soft-tissue injury. Per Vanderbilt Commodores On SI, Graham Baakko, Sep 10.
PACE & SCRIPTOU @ MICH
OU @ MICH carries a 43.5 market total
OU @ MICH’s current FanDuel total is 43.5, 11 points below the 54.5 median across 43 games with posted totals on this slate, pointing to restrained scoring. That expectation would crack if scoring reaches closer to the slate median.
TRENCHESCAL @ SYR
SYR is +75 rush yards per game
CAL is at 119 rushing yards per game over 1 game; SYR is at 194 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESWAKE @ PUR
PUR's front holds runners to 83 fewer yards per game
WAKE is at 149 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; PUR is at 66 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSJXST @ OHIO
JXST's defense takes the ball away 1.5 more times per game
JXST is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGSDSU @ UCLA
SDSU gives away 55 fewer penalty yards per game
SDSU is at 55 penalty yards per game over 1 game; UCLA is at 110 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESRICE @ ND
ND's front holds runners to 81 fewer yards per game
RICE is at 148 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ND is at 67 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMSST @ MINN
MSST moves the chains 11 more times per game
MSST is at 35 first downs per game over 1 game; MINN is at 24 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSA @ TULN
USA's third-down conversion rate is 22.3 percentage points higher
USA is at 43.8% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; TULN is at 21.4% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTULM @ UAB
UAB holds the ball 9:16 longer per game
ULM is at 31:47 time of possession per game over 1 game; UAB is at 41:03 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ MIL
Brewers are 8-3 vs Reds this season
Milwaukee is 8-3 against Cincinnati across 11 meetings this season, including a 20-0 win in the last meeting. Without pitcher, venue or other game details, the record alone does not explain tonight’s matchup in Milwaukee.
TRENCHESUCF @ PITT
PITT's front holds runners to 79 fewer yards per game
UCF is at 107 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; PITT is at 28 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFPHI @ ATL
Matt Olson: .332 OPS in Last 15 Days
Matt Olson has a .332 OPS over the last 15 days across 52 AB, compared with a .825 season baseline. That is a 0.493 drop.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
TRENCHESBUF @ FIU
BUF is +71 rush yards per game
BUF is at 151 rushing yards per game over 1 game; FIU is at 80 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ ATL
Braves are 8-3 vs Phillies this season
Atlanta is 8-3 against Philadelphia across 11 meetings this season, including a 6-5 win in the last meeting. No pitcher, venue or other results were supplied to show what drove that record or applies tonight in Atlanta.
REPLACEMENTTTU @ ORST
Jesse Myers (DT) is out for ORST
Coach JaMarcus Shephard said an unspecified injury would keep him out until at least October and possibly late November. Per James Crepea, The Oregonian/OregonLive, Sep 7.
QUARTERBACKMD @ CONN
CONN's passing game is +89 yards per game
MD is at 281 team passing yards per game over 1 game; CONN is at 370 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTMD @ CONN
Dontay Joyner (DB) is out for MD
Joyner is practicing but remains unavailable for games while university conduct requirements related to his legal case are resolved. Per Inside the Black and Gold, Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTISU @ IOWA
Tyler Brown (DB) is out for IOWA
Iowa ruled DB Tyler Brown out against Iowa State while he remains sidelined by an undisclosed injury. The absence affects the defense, but the supplied facts do not identify who takes his work.
PACE & SCRIPTUCF @ PITT
UCF is scoring +14 points per game
UCF is at 73 points per game over 1 game; PITT is at 59 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTPSU @ TEM
PSU's defense gives up 14 fewer points per game
PSU is at 0 points allowed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTTLSA @ SHSU
TLSA's defense gives up 14 fewer points per game
TLSA is at 10 points allowed per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 24 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTDEL @ VAN
DEL is scoring +14 points per game
DEL is at 42 points per game over 1 game; VAN is at 28 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTALA @ UK
ALA holds the ball 8:49 longer per game
ALA is at 38:41 time of possession per game over 1 game; UK is at 29:52 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMSST @ MINN
MINN's third-down conversion rate is 21.2 percentage points higher
MSST is at 45.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; MINN is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKUTSA @ TXST
UTSA's passing game is +87 yards per game
UTSA is at 275 team passing yards per game over 1 game; TXST is at 188 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
STREAKKC @ BOS
KC games have gone UNDER 6 straight
KC’s six straight unders have produced 7.2 runs per game against totals around 8.9. Tonight’s KC-BOS total is 8.5, but no matchup-specific scoring comparison is supplied.
P final total 6 vs 8.5
STREAKLAD @ MIA
LAD have won 8 straight
LAD has a +27 run differential during its eight-game winning streak and is 8-2 over its last 10. No MIA-specific comparison is supplied to show how tonight’s matchup relates to that form.
P team lost 3-4
COVERAGEBUF @ FIU
FIU's secondary gives up 104 fewer passing yards per game
BUF is at 204 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; FIU is at 100 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGASU @ TA&M
ASU gives away 53 fewer penalty yards per game
ASU is at 22 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TA&M is at 75 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAT CHECKCIN @ MIL
Elly De La Cruz: 1.435 OPS in Last 15 Days
Elly De La Cruz has a 1.435 OPS over the last 15 days across 44 AB. His season baseline is .873.
P 2-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKKC @ BOS
Carter Jensen: 1.277 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carter Jensen has a 1.277 OPS over the last 15 days across 44 AB. His season mark is .761.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
COVERAGEUL @ USC
USC allows a third-down conversion rate 20.5 percentage points lower
UL is at 53.8% third downs allowed over 1 game; USC is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
HEAT CHECKSD @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.323 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rafael Devers has a 1.323 OPS over the last 15 days across 50 AB. His season OPS is .858.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
SITUATIONALOSU @ TEX
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas
Ohio State is No. 1 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,684 points and 46 first-place votes; Texas is No. 4 at 1-0 with 1,462 points and two first-place votes. Texas rose one spot, while Ohio State’s ranking was unchanged.
MISMATCHALA @ UK
ALA's clock control — 38:41 of possession a game to UK's 29:52
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — ALA 38:41, UK 29:52, over 1 and 1 game samples.
SITUATIONALULM @ UAB
UAB moves the chains 10 more times per game
ULM is at 14 first downs per game over 1 game; UAB is at 24 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALTTU @ ORST
TTU's fourth-down conversion rate is 60 percentage points higher
TTU is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; ORST is at 40% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGDUKE @ ILL
ILL gives away 49 fewer penalty yards per game
DUKE is at 53 penalty yards per game over 1 game; ILL is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFLAA @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .378 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams has a .378 OPS over the last 15 days across 47 AB, compared with a .826 season baseline. That is a 0.448 drop.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
PACE & SCRIPTTTU @ ORST
TTU is scoring +13 points per game
TTU is at 33 points per game over 1 game; ORST is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU moves the chains 10 more times per game
MTSU is at 21 first downs per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 11 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTMSST @ MINN
MINN holds the ball 8:08 longer per game
MSST is at 28:13 time of possession per game over 1 game; MINN is at 36:21 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSM @ AUB
USM's defense gives up 13 fewer points per game
USM is at 3 points allowed per game over 1 game; AUB is at 16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU allows a third-down conversion rate 20 percentage points lower
MTSU is at 30% third downs allowed over 1 game; MRSH is at 50% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGOU @ MICH
OU gives away 50 fewer penalty yards per game
OU is at 30 penalty yards per game over 1 game; MICH is at 80 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ WSH
Nationals 2-6 in Andrew Alvarez's last 8 starts
The Nationals are 2-6 in Andrew Alvarez’s last 8 starts this season, including 5 straight losses. He starts tonight against the Angels.
TEAM RECORDTEX @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
The Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight against the Rangers.
REPLACEMENTMD @ CONN
Jake Merklinger (QB) is questionable for CONN
Merklinger did not dress against Lafayette because of an undisclosed injury and was listed as questionable against Maryland. Per Edge Labs, Sep 9.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ TB
Rays 2-6 in Ian Seymour's last 8 starts
The Rays are 2-6 in Ian Seymour’s last 8 starts this season, including 4 straight losses. He starts tonight against the Astros.
TEAM RECORDCIN @ MIL
Reds 2-6 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
The Reds are 2-6 in Brady Singer’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at Milwaukee.
TEAM RECORDKC @ BOS
Red Sox 6-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 8 starts
The Red Sox are 6-2 in Ranger Suarez’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight against the Royals.
REPLACEMENTEMU @ MSU
Nick Kinsey (QB) is questionable for EMU
He has an undisclosed injury and was listed as questionable against Michigan State. Per Covers, Sep 5.
QUARTERBACKULM @ UAB
UAB's passing game is +79 yards per game
ULM is at 140 team passing yards per game over 1 game; UAB is at 219 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTWSU @ KSU
Dillon Duff (QB) is questionable for KSU
Duff has an undisclosed injury and his availability against Washington State is uncertain. Per Covers, Sep 6.
TRENCHESOU @ MICH
OU is +64 rush yards per game
OU is at 170 rushing yards per game over 1 game; MICH is at 106 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESMD @ CONN
MD is +64 rush yards per game
MD is at 365 rushing yards per game over 1 game; CONN is at 301 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTWKU @ UGA
Brock Glenn (QB) is questionable for WKU
Glenn is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and his availability against Georgia was reported as uncertain. Per Covers, Sep 6.
TRENCHESPSU @ TEM
TEM is +64 rush yards per game
PSU is at 163 rushing yards per game over 1 game; TEM is at 227 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGDEL @ VAN
DEL gives away 48 fewer penalty yards per game
DEL is at 25 penalty yards per game over 1 game; VAN is at 73 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTSDSU @ UCLA
Ty Dieffenbach (QB) is questionable for UCLA
He is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and his availability against San Diego State was reported as uncertain. Per Covers, Sep 6.
PACE & SCRIPTRICE @ ND
RICE holds the ball 7:56 longer per game
RICE is at 39:32 time of possession per game over 1 game; ND is at 31:36 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTWAKE @ PUR
PUR holds the ball 7:58 longer per game
WAKE is at 29:24 time of possession per game over 1 game; PUR is at 37:22 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTUSF @ ARMY
USF @ ARMY carries a 45.5 market total
USF @ ARMY’s current FanDuel total is 45.5, 9 points below the 54.5 median across 43 games with posted totals on this slate, placing it firmly on the lower-scoring side. That expectation would crack if scoring moves closer to the slate median.
TEAM RECORDLAD @ MIA
Dodgers 6-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 8 starts
The Dodgers are 6-2 in Tyler Glasnow’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at Miami.
COVERAGECAL @ SYR
SYR allows a third-down conversion rate 18.8 percentage points lower
CAL is at 54.5% third downs allowed over 1 game; SYR is at 35.7% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGUSU @ WASH
USU gives away 47 fewer penalty yards per game
USU is at 83 penalty yards per game over 1 game; WASH is at 130 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKTTU @ ORST
ORST's passing game is +78 yards per game
TTU is at 298 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ORST is at 376 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGOSU @ TEX
TEX gives away 46 fewer penalty yards per game
OSU is at 81 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TEX is at 35 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESEMU @ MSU
MSU is +62 rush yards per game
EMU is at 88 rushing yards per game over 2 games; MSU is at 150 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHWAKE @ PUR
PUR's clock control — 37:22 of possession a game to WAKE's 29:24
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — WAKE 29:24, PUR 37:22, over 1 and 1 game samples.
PLATOON EDGENYM @ NYY
Spencer Jones (bats L) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Spencer Jones has a 1.186 OPS in 41 AB vs. lefties, compared with .687 in 167 AB vs. righties. He bats 6th tonight against LHP Zac Thornton, though the smaller left-handed sample limits the comparison.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKLAD @ MIA
Teoscar Hernandez: 1.169 OPS in Last 15 Days
Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.169 OPS over the last 15 days across 47 AB. His season mark is .761.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COVERAGEPSU @ TEM
PSU's secondary gives up 92 fewer passing yards per game
PSU is at 103 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 195 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTCAL @ SYR
CAL holds the ball 7:41 longer per game
CAL is at 34:49 time of possession per game over 1 game; SYR is at 27:08 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESCLT @ MISS
MISS's front holds runners to 69 fewer yards per game
CLT is at 231 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MISS is at 162 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALBUF @ FIU
BUF's third-down conversion rate is 18.2 percentage points higher
BUF is at 47.6% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; FIU is at 29.4% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCHNMSU @ HAW
NMSU's ground game against HAW's — 141 rush yards a game to 82
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — NMSU 141, HAW 82, over 2 and 2 game samples.
SITUATIONALBGSU @ NEB
NEB's third-down conversion rate is 18.1 percentage points higher
BGSU is at 46.2% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; NEB is at 64.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ FIU
BUF is scoring +12 points per game
BUF is at 21 points per game over 1 game; FIU is at 9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKOSU @ TEX
OSU's passing game is +74 yards per game
OSU is at 434 team passing yards per game over 1 game; TEX is at 360 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALODU @ VT
ODU's third-down conversion rate is 18.1 percentage points higher
ODU is at 55.6% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; VT is at 37.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALEMU @ MSU
MSU moves the chains 9 more times per game
EMU is at 17 first downs per game over 2 games; MSU is at 26 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTGAST @ KENN
GAST is scoring +12 points per game
GAST is at 59 points per game over 1 game; KENN is at 47 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESASU @ TA&M
TA&M's front holds runners to 65 fewer yards per game
ASU is at 102 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TA&M is at 37 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTOU @ MICH
OU's defense gives up 12 fewer points per game
OU is at 0 points allowed per game over 1 game; MICH is at 12 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESARK @ UTAH
ARK's front holds runners to 66 fewer yards per game
ARK is at 40 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; UTAH is at 106 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESNMSU @ HAW
NMSU is +59 rush yards per game
NMSU is at 141 rushing yards per game over 2 games; HAW is at 82 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
STREAKCOL @ DET
COL have lost 5 straight
Colorado has been outscored by 20 runs during its five-game losing streak and is 3-7 over its last 10. No Detroit-specific comparison is supplied to frame tonight’s matchup.
P team lost 7-11
SITUATIONALUSU @ WASH
USU moves the chains 9 more times per game
USU is at 29 first downs per game over 1 game; WASH is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAT CHECKCHW @ STL
Thomas Saggese: 1.266 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thomas Saggese has a 1.266 OPS over the last 15 days across 36 AB. His season baseline is .766.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TURNOVERSDUKE @ ILL
ILL commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
DUKE is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; ILL is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSEMU @ MSU
MSU commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
EMU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; MSU is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUCF @ PITT
PITT commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
UCF is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; PITT is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSDEL @ VAN
VAN commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
DEL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; VAN is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKTENN @ GT
TENN's passing game is +72 yards per game
TENN is at 309 team passing yards per game over 1 game; GT is at 237 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSALA @ UK
UK commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
ALA is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; UK is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUNLV @ UNT
UNLV commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
UNLV is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; UNT is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSULM @ UAB
ULM commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
ULM is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; UAB is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSPSU @ TEM
PSU commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
PSU is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSMSST @ MINN
MSST commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
MSST is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; MINN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEALA @ UK
ALA's secondary gives up 86 fewer passing yards per game
ALA is at 160 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; UK is at 246 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEORE @ OKST
OKST allows a third-down conversion rate 17.6 percentage points lower
ORE is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; OKST is at 9.1% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
HEAT CHECKPIT @ CHC
Alex Bregman: 1.139 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman has a 1.139 OPS over the last 15 days across 51 AB. His season baseline is .800.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
TURNOVERSTTU @ ORST
ORST commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
TTU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; ORST is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTMEM @ BOIS
MEM's defense gives up 11.5 fewer points per game
MEM is at 22.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 34 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFCOL @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .338 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dillon Dingler has a .338 OPS over the last 15 days across 40 AB, versus .762 for the season. That is 0.424 below his norm.
TURNOVERSTENN @ GT
GT commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
TENN is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; GT is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSLT @ LSU
LT commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
LT is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; LSU is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUSA @ TULN
USA commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
USA is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; TULN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTOU @ MICH
Michael Fasusi (OL) is doubtful for OU
Fasusi aggravated a preseason shoulder injury against UTEP, was limited to rehabilitation work Monday, and could be rested against Michigan. Per John Hoover, Oklahoma Sooners On SI, Sep 8.
MARKET RANGEMSST @ MINN
MSST @ MINN books span 2.5 points
The current home spread ranges from -1 to +1.5 across 6 sportsbooks. That is book disagreement, not a public-bet or sharp-money signal.
SITUATIONALODU @ VT
VT's fourth-down conversion rate is 50 percentage points higher
ODU is at 0% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; VT is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's fourth-down conversion rate is 50 percentage points higher
MTSU is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; MRSH is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWKU @ UGA
WKU's fourth-down conversion rate is 50 percentage points higher
WKU is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; UGA is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUNLV @ UNT
UNLV allows a third-down conversion rate 16.8 percentage points lower
UNLV is at 38.7% third downs allowed over 2 games; UNT is at 55.6% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUNLV @ UNT
UNLV is +56.5 rush yards per game
UNLV is at 208.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; UNT is at 152 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALGAST @ KENN
GAST's fourth-down conversion rate is 50 percentage points higher
GAST is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; KENN is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSA @ TULN
USA's fourth-down conversion rate is 50 percentage points higher
USA is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; TULN is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
STARTER FORMCLE @ MIN
Connor Prielipp: 9.37 ERA over his last 3 starts
Connor Prielipp has a 9.37 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last 16.1 innings, versus a 5.25 season ERA and 1.36 season WHIP. No Cleveland lineup measurements were supplied for tonight’s CLE-MIN matchup.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
TRENCHESULM @ UAB
UAB is +56 rush yards per game
ULM is at 138 rushing yards per game over 1 game; UAB is at 194 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGECAL @ SYR
SYR's secondary gives up 85 fewer passing yards per game
CAL is at 184 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; SYR is at 99 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ SF
Padres are 7-4 vs Giants this season
San Diego is 7-4 against San Francisco across 11 meetings this season and won the last one 7-5. No pitcher, venue or other game details were supplied to show what carries into tonight in San Francisco.
PACE & SCRIPTARK @ UTAH
ARK holds the ball 7:05 longer per game
ARK is at 41:25 time of possession per game over 1 game; UTAH is at 34:20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALDEL @ VAN
DEL's third-down conversion rate is 16.7 percentage points higher
DEL is at 50% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; VAN is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKMSST @ MINN
MSST's passing game is +69 yards per game
MSST is at 417 team passing yards per game over 1 game; MINN is at 348 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAT CHECKSEA @ OAK
Cal Raleigh: 1.036 OPS in Last 15 Days
Cal Raleigh has a 1.036 OPS over the last 15 days across 44 AB. His season OPS is .671.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 2 BB
TRENCHESCLT @ MISS
CLT is +53 rush yards per game
CLT is at 195 rushing yards per game over 1 game; MISS is at 142 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGETENN @ GT
TENN's secondary gives up 81 fewer passing yards per game
TENN is at 43 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; GT is at 124 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEMSST @ MINN
MINN's secondary gives up 81 fewer passing yards per game
MSST is at 140 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MINN is at 59 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFCOL @ DET
Hunter Goodman: .507 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hunter Goodman has a .507 OPS over the last 15 days across 47 AB. That is down 0.326 from his .833 season mark.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
COACHINGALA @ UK
ALA gives away 40 fewer penalty yards per game
ALA is at 30 penalty yards per game over 1 game; UK is at 70 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGWSU @ KSU
KSU gives away 40 fewer penalty yards per game
WSU is at 50 penalty yards per game over 1 game; KSU is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFTEX @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .422 OPS in Last 15 Days
Corbin Carroll has a .422 OPS over the last 15 days across 41 AB, versus .800 for the season. That is 0.378 below his norm.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
SITUATIONALUSM @ AUB
USM moves the chains 8 more times per game
USM is at 32 first downs per game over 1 game; AUB is at 24 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWAKE @ PUR
PUR moves the chains 8 more times per game
WAKE is at 20 first downs per game over 1 game; PUR is at 28 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAT CHECKLAD @ MIA
Mookie Betts: 1.061 OPS in Last 15 Days
Mookie Betts has a 1.061 OPS over the last 15 days across 49 AB. His season baseline is .742.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALALA @ UK
ALA's third-down conversion rate is 15.8 percentage points higher
ALA is at 53.3% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; UK is at 37.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ FIU
BUF @ FIU carries a 47.5 market total
BUF @ FIU’s current FanDuel total is 47.5, 7 points below the 54.5 median across 43 games with posted totals on this slate, setting a below-median scoring expectation. A scoring result closer to the slate median would challenge it.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ DET
Kevin McGonigle (bats L) hits 1st against Tanner Gordon (RHP)
Kevin McGonigle has an .856 OPS in 377 AB vs. righties, compared with .649 in 166 AB vs. lefties. He leads off tonight against RHP Tanner Gordon, putting his stronger measured split atop Detroit’s order.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB, 1 BB
COVERAGESDSU @ UCLA
SDSU allows a third-down conversion rate 15.5 percentage points lower
SDSU is at 36.8% third downs allowed over 1 game; UCLA is at 52.4% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPTODU @ VT
ODU @ VT carries a 47.5 market total
ODU @ VT’s current FanDuel total is 47.5, 7 points below the 54.5 median across 43 games with posted totals on this slate, setting a below-median scoring expectation. A scoring result closer to the slate median would challenge it.
STREAKSD @ SF
SD have won 4 straight
San Diego has a +10 run margin during its four-game winning streak and is 6-4 over its last 10. No San Francisco-specific comparison is supplied to show how tonight’s matchup fits the run.
P team won 7-6
COVERAGEODU @ VT
VT allows a third-down conversion rate 14.9 percentage points lower
ODU is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; VT is at 11.8% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSPSU @ TEM
TEM's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
PSU is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; TEM is at 3 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSAPP @ ECU
APP's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
APP is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; ECU is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSRICE @ ND
ND's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
RICE is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; ND is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSMEM @ BOIS
MEM's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
MEM is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSNAVY @ FAU
FAU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
NAVY is at 0 takeaways per game over 1 game; FAU is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSWKU @ UGA
WKU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
WKU is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; UGA is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSEMU @ MSU
EMU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
EMU is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; MSU is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESARIZ @ BYU
ARIZ's front holds runners to 56 fewer yards per game
ARIZ is at -7 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; BYU is at 49 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGUTSA @ TXST
TXST's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
UTSA is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; TXST is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGUSU @ WASH
USU's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
USU is at 4 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; WASH is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
STREAKLAD @ MIA
MIA have lost 4 straight
Miami has been outscored by 12 runs during its four-game losing streak and is 3-7 over its last 10. No Dodgers-specific comparison is supplied for tonight’s matchup.
P team won 3-4
COACHINGUSA @ TULN
USA's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
USA is at 4 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; TULN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEASU @ TA&M
TA&M allows a third-down conversion rate 15 percentage points lower
ASU is at 25% third downs allowed over 1 game; TA&M is at 10% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGETLSA @ SHSU
SHSU's secondary gives up 76 fewer passing yards per game
TLSA is at 241 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 165 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEWKU @ UGA
UGA allows a third-down conversion rate 14.7 percentage points lower
WKU is at 50% third downs allowed over 1 game; UGA is at 35.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEDEL @ VAN
VAN allows a third-down conversion rate 15 percentage points lower
DEL is at 25% third downs allowed over 1 game; VAN is at 10% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
STREAKNYM @ NYY
NYY have won 4 straight
The Yankees have outscored opponents by 16 runs during their four-game winning streak and are 7-3 over their last 10. No Mets-specific comparison is supplied for tonight’s matchup.
P team lost 12-2
SITUATIONALTTU @ ORST
TTU's third-down conversion rate is 15 percentage points higher
TTU is at 41.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ORST is at 26.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSORE @ OKST
OKST's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
ORE is at 0 takeaways per game over 1 game; OKST is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSUCF @ PITT
UCF's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
UCF is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; PITT is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSISU @ IOWA
ISU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
ISU is at 3 takeaways per game over 1 game; IOWA is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGDEL @ VAN
VAN's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
DEL is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; VAN is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGDUKE @ ILL
DUKE's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
DUKE is at 4 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; ILL is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGCAL @ SYR
CAL's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
CAL is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; SYR is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGRICE @ ND
RICE's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
RICE is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; ND is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGELT @ LSU
LSU allows a third-down conversion rate 14.5 percentage points lower
LT is at 22.2% third downs allowed over 1 game; LSU is at 7.7% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGETENN @ GT
TENN allows a third-down conversion rate 14.5 percentage points lower
TENN is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; GT is at 41.2% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEEMU @ MSU
MSU allows a third-down conversion rate 14.2 percentage points lower
EMU is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 2 games; MSU is at 12.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEEMU @ MSU
MSU's secondary gives up 72.5 fewer passing yards per game
EMU is at 268.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MSU is at 196 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKOU @ MICH
OU's passing game is +61 yards per game
OU is at 231 team passing yards per game over 1 game; MICH is at 170 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGMTSU @ MRSH
MRSH gives away 36 fewer penalty yards per game
MTSU is at 81 penalty yards per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 45 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESPSU @ TEM
PSU's front holds runners to 53 fewer yards per game
PSU is at 44 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 97 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALNAVY @ FAU
NAVY's fourth-down conversion rate is 42.9 percentage points higher
NAVY is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; FAU is at 57.1% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALCAL @ SYR
SYR's third-down conversion rate is 14.3 percentage points higher
CAL is at 52.4% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; SYR is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALNMSU @ HAW
NMSU's third-down conversion rate is 14.6 percentage points higher
NMSU is at 56.7% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; HAW is at 42.1% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGETTU @ ORST
TTU allows a third-down conversion rate 13.8 percentage points lower
TTU is at 40% third downs allowed over 1 game; ORST is at 53.8% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESDEL @ VAN
DEL's front holds runners to 50 fewer yards per game
DEL is at 12 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; VAN is at 62 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSM @ AUB
AUB's third-down conversion rate is 13.9 percentage points higher
USM is at 41.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; AUB is at 55.6% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFCHW @ STL
Miguel Vargas: .584 OPS in Last 15 Days
Miguel Vargas has a .584 OPS over the last 15 days across 50 AB. That is down 0.251 from his .835 season mark.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ ARI
Wyatt Langford: .490 OPS in Last 15 Days
Wyatt Langford has a .490 OPS over the last 15 days across 44 AB, compared with a .765 season baseline. That is a 0.275 drop.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
COVERAGEMEM @ BOIS
MEM's secondary gives up 70 fewer passing yards per game
MEM is at 308 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 378 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFNYM @ NYY
Carson Benge: .501 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carson Benge has a .501 OPS over the last 15 days across 50 AB, versus .744 for the season. That is 0.243 below his norm.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
QUARTERBACKNMSU @ HAW
NMSU's passing game is +57.5 yards per game
NMSU is at 283.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; HAW is at 226 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEOSU @ TEX
OSU's secondary gives up 68 fewer passing yards per game
OSU is at 120 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEX is at 188 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEMD @ CONN
MD's secondary gives up 70 fewer passing yards per game
MD is at 75 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; CONN is at 145 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALBGSU @ NEB
NEB moves the chains 7 more times per game
BGSU is at 21 first downs per game over 1 game; NEB is at 28 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUCF @ PITT
PITT moves the chains 7 more times per game
UCF is at 26 first downs per game over 1 game; PITT is at 33 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALRICE @ ND
RICE moves the chains 7 more times per game
RICE is at 27 first downs per game over 1 game; ND is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALTLSA @ SHSU
SHSU moves the chains 7 more times per game
TLSA is at 15 first downs per game over 1 game; SHSU is at 22 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALEMU @ MSU
MSU's fourth-down conversion rate is 41.7 percentage points higher
EMU is at 25% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; MSU is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COOLING OFFBAL @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .429 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ernie Clement has a .429 OPS over the last 15 days in 45 AB. That is 0.253 below his .682 season OPS.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTAPP @ ECU
Brock Spalding (WR) is questionable for ECU
Spalding is dealing with a back injury that kept him out of the opener, and his availability remained uncertain. Per Stephen Igoe, 247Sports, Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTODU @ VT
Shamarius Peterkin (WR) is questionable for VT
Peterkin has a foot injury and was reported as uncertain to play against Old Dominion. Per Covers, Sep 6.
COOLING OFFCHW @ STL
Alec Burleson: .584 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alec Burleson has a .584 OPS over the last 15 days in 49 AB. That is 0.235 below his .819 season OPS.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMPHI @ ATL
Tyler Mahle: 1.02 ERA over his last 3 starts
Tyler Mahle has allowed 2 earned runs over his last 17.2 innings, posting a 1.02 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Both are below his 4.05 season ERA and 1.27 season WHIP entering PHI at ATL.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
COVERAGEAPP @ ECU
APP allows a third-down conversion rate 13.3 percentage points lower
APP is at 40% third downs allowed over 1 game; ECU is at 53.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTUCF @ PITT
Duane Thomas Jr. (WR) is questionable for UCF
Thomas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and his availability against Pittsburgh was reported as unclear. Per Covers, Sep 5.
REPLACEMENTAPP @ ECU
Meliq Mcgowan (RB) is questionable for ECU
McGowan has an undisclosed injury and was listed as questionable for the App State game. Per Covers, Sep 5.
COACHINGJXST @ OHIO
OHIO gives away 32.5 fewer penalty yards per game
JXST is at 62.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 30 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMEM @ BOIS
MEM's third-down conversion rate is 13.3 percentage points higher
MEM is at 40% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; BOIS is at 26.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGNAVY @ FAU
NAVY gives away 33 fewer penalty yards per game
NAVY is at 55 penalty yards per game over 1 game; FAU is at 88 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTAPP @ ECU
Ja'Keith Hamilton (WR) is questionable for ECU
Hamilton has an undisclosed injury and was listed as questionable for the App State game. Per Covers, Sep 5.
QUARTERBACKJXST @ OHIO
JXST's passing game is +54.5 yards per game
JXST is at 218.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 164 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENTODU @ VT
Takye Heath (WR) is questionable for VT
Heath has an undisclosed injury and was reported as uncertain to play against Old Dominion. Per Covers, Sep 6.
REPLACEMENTUSF @ ARMY
Tobi Olawole (WR) is questionable for ARMY
He is dealing with an undisclosed injury and was reported as uncertain to play against South Florida. Per Covers, Sep 6.
REPLACEMENTUSF @ ARMY
Cameron Seldon (WR) is questionable for USF
He is dealing with an undisclosed injury and was reported as uncertain to play against Army. Per Covers, Sep 6.
COVERAGEARK @ UTAH
ARK allows a third-down conversion rate 13.1 percentage points lower
ARK is at 10% third downs allowed over 1 game; UTAH is at 23.1% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ BOS
Red Sox are 3-1 vs Royals this season
Boston is 3-1 against Kansas City across four meetings this season, but Kansas City won the last meeting 3-2. Without pitcher, venue or game-by-game context, the small sample does not establish what carries into tonight in Boston.
HR THREATRockies @ Tigers
Eduardo Valencia
Gary's Take Valencia is the long-shot swing I want in this matchup. He has legitimate impact against right-handed pitching, carrying a .313 average and .861 OPS in the split, and Tanner Gordon has allowed right-handed hitters a .836 OPS while giving up hard contact.
P 0 HR — 3-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTODU @ VT
Bill Davis (RB) is questionable for VT
Davis has an undisclosed injury and was reported as uncertain to play against Old Dominion. Per Covers, Sep 6.
COACHINGMEM @ BOIS
BOIS gives away 32.5 fewer penalty yards per game
MEM is at 57.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 25 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
UPCOMING GAMESNFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 13
BDL lists 13 NFL games on the next slate. All 13 kickoff times are confirmed.
STARTER FORMSD @ SF
Michael King: 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Michael King has allowed no earned runs over his last 3 starts, posting a 0.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 16 strikeouts across 19 IP. His season marks are a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP entering SD at SF.
P 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
REPLACEMENTODU @ VT
Luke Stuewe (WR) is questionable for VT
Stuewe has an undisclosed injury and was reported as uncertain to play against Old Dominion. Per Covers, Sep 5.
COVERAGEARIZ @ BYU
BYU's secondary gives up 65 fewer passing yards per game
ARIZ is at 200 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; BYU is at 135 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGAPP @ ECU
APP gives away 31 fewer penalty yards per game
APP is at 30 penalty yards per game over 1 game; ECU is at 61 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGORE @ OKST
OKST gives away 31 fewer penalty yards per game
ORE is at 90 penalty yards per game over 1 game; OKST is at 59 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEWKU @ UGA
UGA's secondary gives up 64 fewer passing yards per game
WKU is at 163 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; UGA is at 99 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEWAKE @ PUR
PUR allows a third-down conversion rate 12.8 percentage points lower
WAKE is at 46.2% third downs allowed over 1 game; PUR is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALJXST @ OHIO
JXST's third-down conversion rate is 12.4 percentage points higher
JXST is at 52.4% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; OHIO is at 40% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEWAKE @ PUR
WAKE's secondary gives up 62 fewer passing yards per game
WAKE is at 156 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; PUR is at 218 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
STARTER FORMCIN @ MIL
Brady Singer: 7.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
Brady Singer has allowed 13 earned runs and 20 hits in 15 innings across his last 3 starts, producing a 7.80 ERA. That is 2.77 above his 5.03 season ERA entering CIN at MIL.
P 4 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
COVERAGELT @ LSU
LT's secondary gives up 62 fewer passing yards per game
LT is at 43 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; LSU is at 105 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESJXST @ OHIO
JXST's front holds runners to 46 fewer yards per game
JXST is at 202 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 248 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALOU @ MICH
OU moves the chains 6 more times per game
OU is at 18 first downs per game over 1 game; MICH is at 12 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGWAKE @ PUR
PUR gives away 30 fewer penalty yards per game
WAKE is at 115 penalty yards per game over 1 game; PUR is at 85 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKDUKE @ ILL
ILL's passing game is +51 yards per game
DUKE is at 131 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ILL is at 182 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKUSA @ TULN
TULN's passing game is +50 yards per game
USA is at 154 team passing yards per game over 1 game; TULN is at 204 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALPSU @ TEM
PSU moves the chains 6 more times per game
PSU is at 25 first downs per game over 1 game; TEM is at 19 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESSDSU @ UCLA
UCLA is +40 rush yards per game
SDSU is at 237 rushing yards per game over 1 game; UCLA is at 277 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
AFTER GARYPSU @ TEM
PSU -23.5 → -24.5
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SITUATIONALTTU @ ORST
TTU moves the chains 6 more times per game
TTU is at 26 first downs per game over 1 game; ORST is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALOSU @ TEX
OSU moves the chains 6 more times per game
OSU is at 32 first downs per game over 1 game; TEX is at 26 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEBUF @ FIU
BUF allows a third-down conversion rate 12.1 percentage points lower
BUF is at 26.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; FIU is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEISU @ IOWA
IOWA allows a third-down conversion rate 11.3 percentage points lower
ISU is at 31.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; IOWA is at 20% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee (bats R) draws Tanner Gordon (RHP), batting 2nd
Hao-Yu Lee has a .783 OPS in 148 AB vs. righties, compared with .629 in 122 AB vs. lefties. Batting 2nd tonight against RHP Tanner Gordon places his stronger measured split near the top of Detroit’s order.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALJXST @ OHIO
OHIO's fourth-down conversion rate is 33.3 percentage points higher
JXST is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; OHIO is at 100% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESORE @ OKST
ORE's front holds runners to 41 fewer yards per game
ORE is at 93 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; OKST is at 134 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
STARTER FORMKC @ BOS
Randy Dobnak: 5.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Randy Dobnak has a 5.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across his last 3 starts and 18 innings. Entering KC at BOS, the ERA is above his 2.54 season mark while the WHIP is below his 1.32 season mark.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
COACHINGODU @ VT
ODU gives away 28 fewer penalty yards per game
ODU is at 65 penalty yards per game over 1 game; VT is at 93 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUTSA @ TXST
TXST's fourth-down conversion rate is 33.3 percentage points higher
UTSA is at 0% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; TXST is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEASU @ TA&M
TA&M's secondary gives up 56 fewer passing yards per game
ASU is at 86 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TA&M is at 30 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKALA @ UK
UK's passing game is +48 yards per game
ALA is at 253 team passing yards per game over 1 game; UK is at 301 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALDEL @ VAN
DEL's fourth-down conversion rate is 33.3 percentage points higher
DEL is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; VAN is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEAPP @ ECU
APP's secondary gives up 55 fewer passing yards per game
APP is at 198 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ECU is at 253 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUSA @ TULN
TULN's secondary gives up 55 fewer passing yards per game
USA is at 186 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TULN is at 131 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUTSA @ TXST
UTSA moves the chains 5 more times per game
UTSA is at 23 first downs per game over 1 game; TXST is at 18 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALNAVY @ FAU
NAVY moves the chains 5 more times per game
NAVY is at 30 first downs per game over 1 game; FAU is at 25 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
AFTER GARYORE @ OKST
ORE -23.5 → -23.5
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STARTER FORMBAL @ TOR
Kyle Bradish: 6.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
Kyle Bradish has a 6.08 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over his last 13.1 innings. Both exceed his 3.91 season ERA and 1.42 season WHIP entering BAL at TOR.
P 3 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
PARK WEATHERCOL @ DET
Wind blowing in 11 mph at Comerica Park tonight
Comerica Park is 79° and partly cloudy tonight, with an 11 mph wind blowing in from right field. The COL-DET total is 8.5, but no measured park-effect comparison is supplied.
P final total 18 vs 8.5 (under lean)
COACHINGNMSU @ HAW
HAW gives away 25 fewer penalty yards per game
NMSU is at 70 penalty yards per game over 2 games; HAW is at 45 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGWKU @ UGA
WKU gives away 26 fewer penalty yards per game
WKU is at 59 penalty yards per game over 1 game; UGA is at 85 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGCLT @ MISS
CLT gives away 25 fewer penalty yards per game
CLT is at 35 penalty yards per game over 1 game; MISS is at 60 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGPSU @ TEM
TEM gives away 25 fewer penalty yards per game
PSU is at 45 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TEM is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALCAL @ SYR
SYR moves the chains 5 more times per game
CAL is at 23 first downs per game over 1 game; SYR is at 28 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKCLT @ MISS
MISS's passing game is +43 yards per game
CLT is at 293 team passing yards per game over 1 game; MISS is at 336 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
AFTER GARYODU @ VT
VT -18.5 → -18.5
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QUARTERBACKLT @ LSU
LSU's passing game is +39 yards per game
LT is at 296 team passing yards per game over 1 game; LSU is at 335 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEARIZ @ BYU
ARIZ allows a third-down conversion rate 9.9 percentage points lower
ARIZ is at 28.6% third downs allowed over 1 game; BYU is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESGAST @ KENN
KENN's front holds runners to 35 fewer yards per game
GAST is at 84 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; KENN is at 49 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGUSM @ AUB
USM gives away 22 fewer penalty yards per game
USM is at 25 penalty yards per game over 1 game; AUB is at 47 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGETLSA @ SHSU
TLSA allows a third-down conversion rate 8.8 percentage points lower
TLSA is at 31.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; SHSU is at 40% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKGAST @ KENN
GAST's passing game is +38 yards per game
GAST is at 279 team passing yards per game over 1 game; KENN is at 241 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEORE @ OKST
ORE's secondary gives up 46 fewer passing yards per game
ORE is at 181 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; OKST is at 227 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
BALLPARKPIT @ CHC
Clay Holmes: 0.50 ERA in 3 games at Wrigley Field — 3.44 everywhere else
Clay Holmes has a 0.50 ERA in 3 games and 18.0 IP at Wrigley Field, versus 3.44 over 68.0 IP everywhere else; hitters bat .190 off him at Wrigley. The split does not separate a park effect from Holmes’s performance.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
COVERAGEWSU @ KSU
KSU allows a third-down conversion rate 8.3 percentage points lower
WSU is at 33.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; KSU is at 25% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEBGSU @ NEB
NEB's secondary gives up 42 fewer passing yards per game
BGSU is at 206 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; NEB is at 164 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
BALLPARKCLE @ MIN
At Target Field, Connor Prielipp pitches to a 4.42 ERA
Connor Prielipp has a 4.42 ERA in 11 games and 59.0 IP at Target Field, versus 6.24 over 49.0 IP elsewhere; hitters bat .220 off him at Target Field. The split shows better home results, not that the park caused them.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
AFTER GARYWKU @ UGA
UGA -40.5 → -40.5
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SITUATIONALDUKE @ ILL
ILL's fourth-down conversion rate is 25 percentage points higher
DUKE is at 25% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; ILL is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALGAST @ KENN
GAST's third-down conversion rate is 8.3 percentage points higher
GAST is at 58.3% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; KENN is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALNMSU @ HAW
HAW's fourth-down conversion rate is 25 percentage points higher
NMSU is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; HAW is at 75% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUSU @ WASH
USU's fourth-down conversion rate is 25 percentage points higher
USU is at 25% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; WASH is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALNAVY @ FAU
NAVY's third-down conversion rate is 8.3 percentage points higher
NAVY is at 58.3% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; FAU is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUSU @ WASH
USU is +28 rush yards per game
USU is at 162 rushing yards per game over 1 game; WASH is at 134 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
PARK WEATHERNYM @ NYY
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
Yankee Stadium is 78° and partly cloudy tonight, with a 10 mph wind blowing in from right field. The NYM-NYY total is 8, but no measured park-effect comparison is supplied.
P final total 14 vs 8 (under lean)
TURNOVERSJXST @ OHIO
OHIO commits 0.5 fewer turnovers per game
JXST is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERSNMSU @ HAW
NMSU commits 0.5 fewer turnovers per game
NMSU is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; HAW is at 1 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
AFTER GARYUSF @ ARMY
ARMY -3.5 → -3.5
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SITUATIONALUCF @ PITT
PITT's third-down conversion rate is 7.5 percentage points higher
UCF is at 62.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; PITT is at 70% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKUSM @ AUB
AUB's passing game is +33 yards per game
USM is at 226 team passing yards per game over 1 game; AUB is at 259 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMEM @ BOIS
MEM moves the chains 4 more times per game
MEM is at 22 first downs per game over 2 games; BOIS is at 18 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESWAKE @ PUR
WAKE is +26 rush yards per game
WAKE is at 203 rushing yards per game over 1 game; PUR is at 177 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWKU @ UGA
Western Kentucky at No. 2 Georgia
Georgia is No. 2 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,532 points and has risen one spot. Western Kentucky is unranked, leaving Georgia with the poll standing to protect at home.
COVERAGERICE @ ND
RICE allows a third-down conversion rate 7.7 percentage points lower
RICE is at 30.8% third downs allowed over 1 game; ND is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUSF @ ARMY
ARMY allows a third-down conversion rate 8 percentage points lower
USF is at 29.4% third downs allowed over 1 game; ARMY is at 21.4% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGODU @ VT
VT's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
ODU is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; VT is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGULM @ UAB
UAB's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
ULM is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; UAB is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGEMU @ MSU
MSU's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
EMU is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; MSU is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGWKU @ UGA
WKU's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
WKU is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; UGA is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALEMU @ MSU
MSU's third-down conversion rate is 7.5 percentage points higher
EMU is at 25.8% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; MSU is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ MIN
Twins are 6-5 vs Guardians this season
Minnesota is 6-5 against Cleveland across 11 meetings this season, while Cleveland won the last meeting 5-2. Without pitcher, venue or game-by-game context, the nearly even record does not explain tonight in Minnesota.
COACHINGISU @ IOWA
ISU gives away 20 fewer penalty yards per game
ISU is at 40 penalty yards per game over 1 game; IOWA is at 60 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALWAKE @ PUR
PUR's third-down conversion rate is 7.9 percentage points higher
WAKE is at 46.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; PUR is at 54.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ CHC
Cubs are 6-5 vs Pirates this season
Chicago is 6-5 against Pittsburgh across 11 meetings this season and won the last one 12-2. No pitcher, venue or game-by-game breakdown shows whether the narrow series edge or lopsided last result reflects tonight in Chicago.
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ DET
Tigers are 1-0 vs Rockies this season
Detroit is 1-0 against Colorado this season after winning their only meeting 6-2. One game, without pitcher or prior-venue context, offers little basis for explaining tonight’s matchup in Detroit.
COACHINGWAKE @ PUR
WAKE's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
WAKE is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; PUR is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGUSM @ AUB
USM's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
USM is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; AUB is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAA @ WSH
Nationals are 1-0 vs Angels this season
Washington is 1-0 against the Angels this season after winning their only meeting 4-3. With one game and no pitcher or prior-venue context, the series offers little evidence about tonight in Washington.
COACHINGGAST @ KENN
KENN's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
GAST is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; KENN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGMTSU @ MRSH
MTSU's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
MTSU is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; MRSH is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALTENN @ GT
TENN's third-down conversion rate is 7 percentage points higher
TENN is at 45.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; GT is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
AFTER GARYASU @ TA&M
ASU +14.5 → +14.5
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AFTER GARYOU @ MICH
OU -4.5 → -4.5
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AFTER GARYWAKE @ PUR
WAKE -2.5 → -2.5
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AFTER GARYARIZ @ BYU
ARIZ +6.5 → +6.5
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AFTER GARYRICE @ ND
RICE +44.5 → +44.5
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AFTER GARYUCF @ PITT
PITT -7.5 → -7.5
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AFTER GARYUTSA @ TXST
TXST -2.5 → -2.5
FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
AFTER GARYCAL @ SYR
SYR -3.5 → -3.5
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AFTER GARYWSU @ KSU
WSU +17.5 → +17.5
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REGRESSIONCOL @ DET
TJ Rumfield: .295 AVG vs .259 xBA
TJ Rumfield is batting .295 against a .259 xBA over 578 plate appearances, while his .372 wOBA is above a .334 xwOBA. Both contact-quality measures trail his results, leaving room for those results to cool, but the facts provide no Detroit pitching comparison.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
AFTER GARYULM @ UAB
UAB -8.5 → -8.5
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AFTER GARYDUKE @ ILL
DUKE +5.5 → +5.5
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AFTER GARYMSST @ MINN
MSST -1.5 → -1.5
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AFTER GARYEMU @ MSU
MSU -17.5 → -17.5
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AFTER GARYMD @ CONN
CONN +11.5 → +11.5
FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
REPLACEMENTAPP @ ECU
Landon Sides (WR) is probable for ECU
Sides returned to practice after a hamstring injury and was trending toward playing against App State. Per Stephen Igoe, 247Sports, Sep 10.
FIRST INNINGLAA @ WSH
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of LAA @ WSH
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 3 of 10 sampled WSH games and 2 of 10 sampled LAA games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Andrew Alvarez: 0.00 ERA, .106 opponent AVG across 14.0 IP, 0 HR; Walbert Ureña: 0.75 ERA, .136 opponent AVG across 24.0 IP, 1 HR.
P 1st inning: 0-1 (1 run)
FIRST INNINGCIN @ MIL
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CIN @ MIL
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 7 of 10 sampled MIL games and 8 of 10 sampled CIN games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Brady Singer: 4.18 ERA, .234 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 4 HR.
P 1st inning: 0-4 (4 runs)
COACHINGTTU @ ORST
ORST gives away 18 fewer penalty yards per game
TTU is at 60 penalty yards per game over 1 game; ORST is at 42 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMD @ CONN
MD's third-down conversion rate is 7.1 percentage points higher
MD is at 57.1% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; CONN is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALRICE @ ND
Rice at No. 3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame is No. 3 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,512 points and four first-place votes, up one spot. Rice is unranked, so the poll draws a clear respect gap for Notre Dame at home.
COACHINGUCF @ PITT
PITT gives away 17 fewer penalty yards per game
UCF is at 55 penalty yards per game over 1 game; PITT is at 38 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGARIZ @ BYU
ARIZ gives away 16 fewer penalty yards per game
ARIZ is at 30 penalty yards per game over 1 game; BYU is at 46 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
QUARTERBACKSDSU @ UCLA
UCLA's passing game is +27 yards per game
SDSU is at 157 team passing yards per game over 1 game; UCLA is at 184 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESALA @ UK
ALA is +22 rush yards per game
ALA is at 227 rushing yards per game over 1 game; UK is at 205 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEUNLV @ UNT
UNLV's secondary gives up 31.5 fewer passing yards per game
UNLV is at 199.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; UNT is at 231 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEMD @ CONN
MD allows a third-down conversion rate 6.7 percentage points lower
MD is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; CONN is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALUNLV @ UNT
UNT's third-down conversion rate is 6.7 percentage points higher
UNLV is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; UNT is at 40% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESSDSU @ UCLA
SDSU's front holds runners to 24 fewer yards per game
SDSU is at 95 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; UCLA is at 119 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHINGGAST @ KENN
GAST gives away 15 fewer penalty yards per game
GAST is at 50 penalty yards per game over 1 game; KENN is at 65 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALGAST @ KENN
KENN moves the chains 3 more times per game
GAST is at 28 first downs per game over 1 game; KENN is at 31 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALJXST @ OHIO
JXST moves the chains 3 more times per game
JXST is at 20 first downs per game over 2 games; OHIO is at 17 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALDUKE @ ILL
DUKE moves the chains 3 more times per game
DUKE is at 20 first downs per game over 1 game; ILL is at 17 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHESUNLV @ UNT
UNT's front holds runners to 22.5 fewer yards per game
UNLV is at 156.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; UNT is at 134 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALMSST @ MINN
MINN has 2 more days of rest
MINN enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while MSST has had 7 days since its last game. That creates a 2-day spacing gap.
SITUATIONALBUF @ FIU
BUF has 2 more days of rest
BUF enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while FIU has had 7 days since its last game. That gives BUF a 2-day spacing edge.
SITUATIONALDEL @ VAN
DEL has 2 more days of rest
DEL enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while VAN has had 7 days since its last game. That gives DEL a 2-day spacing edge.
SITUATIONALTENN @ GT
GT has 2 more days of rest
GT enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while TENN has had 7 days since its last game. That creates a 2-day spacing gap.
SITUATIONALDUKE @ ILL
ILL has 2 more days of rest
ILL enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while DUKE has had 7 days since its last game. That creates a 2-day spacing gap.
SITUATIONALULM @ UAB
UAB has 2 more days of rest
UAB enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while ULM has had 7 days since its last game. That creates a 2-day spacing gap.
SITUATIONALARK @ UTAH
UTAH has 2 more days of rest
UTAH enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while ARK has had 7 days since its last game. That creates a 2-day spacing gap.
SITUATIONALUCF @ PITT
UCF has 2 more days of rest
UCF enters on 9 days of rest with a bye behind it, while PITT has had 7 days since its last game. That gives UCF a 2-day spacing edge.
COVERAGECLT @ MISS
MISS allows a third-down conversion rate 6.3 percentage points lower
CLT is at 50% third downs allowed over 1 game; MISS is at 43.8% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COVERAGEDEL @ VAN
DEL's secondary gives up 30 fewer passing yards per game
DEL is at 86 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; VAN is at 116 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
SITUATIONALORE @ OKST
No. 6 Oregon at Oklahoma State
Oregon is No. 6 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,422 points and three first-place votes, but has fallen four spots. Oklahoma State is unranked, leaving Oregon’s poll standing exposed on the road.
BALLPARKCIN @ MIL
Brady Singer owns a 4.50 ERA at American Family Field — 5.67 everywhere else
Brady Singer has a 4.50 ERA in 15 games and 80.0 IP at American Family Field, versus 5.67 over 66.2 IP elsewhere; hitters bat .260 off him at this venue. His ERA has been lower there, though the split cannot establish why.
P 4 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
BALLPARKKC @ BOS
Ranger Suarez's ERA jumps to 4.14 at Fenway Park
Ranger Suarez has a 4.14 ERA in 11 games and 54.1 IP at Fenway Park, versus 2.95 over 76.1 IP everywhere else; hitters bat .235 off him at Fenway. The split shows worse Fenway results but cannot isolate the venue as the cause.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
SITUATIONALLT @ LSU
Louisiana Tech at No. 8 LSU
LSU is No. 8 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,315 points and five first-place votes, up three spots. Louisiana Tech is unranked, so LSU carries both the higher standing and the recent poll gain into its home game.
BALLPARKHOU @ TB
Ian Seymour's ERA drops to 3.82 at Tropicana Field
Ian Seymour has a 3.82 ERA in 23 games and 63.2 IP at Tropicana Field, versus 4.96 over 52.2 IP elsewhere; hitters bat .206 off him at Tropicana Field. The split shows better home results without establishing the cause.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ DET
Detroit Tigers are 14-27 in one-run games (.341 win rate)
Detroit Tigers are 14-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (41 completed games). They are 54-52 in their other 106 completed games.
SITUATIONALCLT @ MISS
Charlotte at No. 9 Ole Miss
Ole Miss is No. 9 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,154 points, and its ranking is unchanged. Charlotte is unranked, leaving Ole Miss with the poll standing to protect at home.
FIRST INNINGTEX @ ARI
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
ARI scored in the first inning in 0 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Brandon Pfaadt: 2.25 ERA, .186 opponent AVG across 16.0 IP, 2 HR; Kumar Rocker: 8.63 ERA, .346 opponent AVG across 24.0 IP, 4 HR.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BALLPARKCHW @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Kyle Leahy pitches to a 2.91 ERA
Kyle Leahy has a 2.91 ERA in 14 games and 68.0 IP at Busch Stadium, versus 3.94 over 64.0 IP elsewhere; hitters bat .266 off him at Busch Stadium. His home ERA is lower, but the results do not identify the park as the cause.
P 3 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
SITUATIONALASU @ TA&M
Arizona State at No. 10 Texas A&M
Texas A&M is No. 10 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,079 points, but has fallen two spots. Arizona State is unranked, leaving Texas A&M’s top-10 standing exposed at home.
SITUATIONALWAKE @ PUR
WAKE comes off a bye
WAKE comes in on 9 days of rest — a bye behind it; PUR on 8 days since its last game.
SITUATIONALOU @ MICH
No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan
Oklahoma is No. 11 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,039 points, down one spot. Michigan is unranked, leaving Oklahoma as the only side bringing a poll position into the road matchup.
SITUATIONALGAST @ KENN
KENN comes off a bye
GAST comes in on 8 days since its last game; KENN on 9 days of rest — a bye behind it.
SITUATIONALALA @ UK
No. 12 Alabama at Kentucky
Alabama is No. 12 in the AP poll at 1-0 (910 points, trend +1). Kentucky is unranked.
SITUATIONALTTU @ ORST
No. 13 Texas Tech at Oregon State
Texas Tech is No. 13 in the AP poll at 1-0 (900 points, trend -1). Oregon State is unranked.
SITUATIONALUL @ USC
Louisiana at No. 14 USC
Louisiana is unranked. USC is No. 14 in the AP poll at 2-0 (861 points, trend -).
SITUATIONALARIZ @ BYU
Arizona at No. 15 BYU
Arizona is unranked. BYU is No. 15 in the AP poll at 1-0 (840 points, trend -1).
SITUATIONALISU @ IOWA
Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa
Iowa State is unranked. Iowa is No. 21 in the AP poll at 1-0 (369 points, trend +1).
SITUATIONALARK @ UTAH
Arkansas at No. 20 Utah
Arkansas is unranked. Utah is No. 20 in the AP poll at 1-0 (381 points, trend +1).
SITUATIONALPSU @ TEM
No. 16 Penn State at Temple
Penn State is No. 16 in the AP poll at 1-0 (621 points, trend +2). Temple is unranked.
SITUATIONALTENN @ GT
No. 18 Tennessee at Georgia Tech
Tennessee is No. 18 in the AP poll at 1-0 (491 points, trend +2). Georgia Tech is unranked.
SITUATIONALUSU @ WASH
Utah State at No. 19 Washington
Utah State is unranked. Washington is No. 19 in the AP poll at 1-0 (489 points, trend -2).
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/18
Gavin Stone
Gavin Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His listed return is September 18, six days away, but that’s a roster listing—not a promise—and there’s no season line to lean on. Stash only in a deep league with a free IL spot; otherwise move on.
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 9/21
Ryan Mountcastle
Ryan Mountcastle is on Baltimore’s 60-day IL with an oblique injury. His listed return is September 21, nine days away, and his season line sits at a .690 OPS. Not enough here to justify a stash outside deeper formats.
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/21
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. His listed return is September 21, nine days away, and he carries a 5.16 ERA. Leave him on the wire; the stash case isn’t strong enough.
HEAD-TO-HEADISU @ IOWA
ISU lead the series with IOWA since 2025
ISU leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after beating IOWA 16-13 at home on Sep. 6, 2025. The only recent meeting was close; this matchup shifts to IOWA.
HEAD-TO-HEADMTSU @ MRSH
MRSH lead the series with MTSU since 2025
MRSH has taken 1 of the last 1. Sep 20, 2025: MRSH 42 at MTSU 28.
HEAD-TO-HEADUTSA @ TXST
TXST lead the series with UTSA since 2025
TXST leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after winning 43-36 at UTSA on Sep. 6, 2025. The only recent meeting was close; this matchup shifts to TXST.
HEAD-TO-HEADUSA @ TULN
TULN lead the series with USA since 2025
TULN leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after winning 33-31 at USA on Sep. 6, 2025. The only recent meeting was close; this matchup shifts to TULN.
HEAD-TO-HEADNAVY @ FAU
NAVY lead the series with FAU since 2025
NAVY leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after beating FAU 42-32 at home on Oct. 25, 2025. This matchup shifts to FAU; no other changes since that meeting were supplied.
HEAD-TO-HEADODU @ VT
ODU lead the series with VT since 2025
ODU leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after winning 45-26 at VT on Sep. 13, 2025. The only recent meeting was one-way, and this matchup is again at VT.
HEAD-TO-HEADDUKE @ ILL
ILL lead the series with DUKE since 2025
ILL has taken 1 of the last 1. Sep 6, 2025: ILL 45 at DUKE 19.
HEAD-TO-HEADOU @ MICH
OU lead the series with MICH since 2025
OU has taken 1 of the last 1. Sep 6, 2025: MICH 13 at OU 24.
HEAD-TO-HEADLT @ LSU
LSU lead the series with LT since 2025
LSU has taken 1 of the last 1. Sep 6, 2025: LT 7 at LSU 23.
HEAD-TO-HEADOSU @ TEX
OSU lead the series with TEX since 2025
OSU has taken 1 of the last 1. Aug 30, 2025: TEX 7 at OSU 14.
HEAD-TO-HEADARIZ @ BYU
BYU lead the series with ARIZ since 2025
BYU leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after winning 33-27 at ARIZ on Oct. 11, 2025. The only recent meeting was close; this matchup shifts to BYU.
HEAD-TO-HEADORE @ OKST
ORE lead the series with OKST since 2025
ORE leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after beating OKST 69-3 at home on Sep. 6, 2025. The only recent meeting was one-way; this matchup shifts to OKST.
HEAD-TO-HEADTTU @ ORST
TTU lead the series with ORST since 2025
TTU leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after beating ORST 45-14 at home on Sep. 13, 2025. The only recent meeting was one-way; this matchup shifts to ORST.

Graded results

Games

L
Yankees ML -164
MLB · 12-2
L
Rockies ML +142
MLB · 7-11
L
Pirates ML +104
MLB · 3-4
L
Arizona State Sun Devils +14.5 -110
NCAAF · 20-48
W
Virginia Tech Hokies -18.5 -114
NCAAF · 21-44
L
Washington State Cougars +17.5 -110
NCAAF · 7-34
L
Army Black Knights -3.5 -102
NCAAF · 28-24
L
Oklahoma Sooners -4.5 -114
NCAAF · 10-17
L
Penn State Nittany Lions -23.5 -120
NCAAF · 27-9
L
Texas State Bobcats -2.5 -110
NCAAF · 31-26
L
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5 -120
NCAAF · 38-36
L
Arizona Wildcats +6.5 +100
NCAAF · 17-28
L
Syracuse Orange -3.5 -108
NCAAF · 21-18
L
Rice Owls +44.5 -105
NCAAF · 0-52
W
Mississippi State Bulldogs -1.5 +100
NCAAF · 38-13
L
Pittsburgh Panthers -7.5 +100
NCAAF · 7-12
L
UAB Blazers -8.5 -110
NCAAF · 20-26
W
Duke Blue Devils +5.5 -105
NCAAF · 31-27
L
Oregon Ducks -23.5 -105
NCAAF · 31-39
L
UConn Huskies +11.5 -110
NCAAF · 38-14
W
Georgia Bulldogs -40.5 -106
NCAAF · 20-70
W
Toronto Blue Jays ML -126
MLB · 3-7
W
Michigan State Spartans -17.5 -106
NCAAF · 7-35

Props

W
Adael Amador · over
Rockies @ Tigers · Actual 3
L
Alex Bregman · over
Pirates @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Clay Holmes · over
Pirates @ Cubs · Actual 4
L
Eduardo Valencia · over
Rockies @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Gerrit Cole · under
Mets @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Heliot Ramos · under
Mets @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Mets @ Yankees · Actual 0

Sports picks for Saturday, September 12, 2026

Game picks

Washington State
+17.5

Oregon
-23.5

Arizona State
+14.5

Penn State
-23.5

Virginia Tech
-18.5

Army
-3.5

Oklahoma
-4.5

Wake Forest
-2.5

Georgia
-40.5

Rockies
Moneyline

Arizona
+6.5

Rice
+44.5

Pittsburgh
-7.5

Texas State
-2.5

Syracuse
-3.5

UAB
-8.5

Duke
+5.5

Mississippi State
-1.5

Michigan State
-17.5

Pirates
Moneyline

Yankees
Moneyline

UConn
+11.5

Blue Jays
Moneyline

Player props

Adael Amador
H+R+RBI over 0.5

Eduardo Valencia
HR over 0.5

Clay Holmes
Pitcher Walks over 1.5

Alex Bregman
HR over 0.5

Gerrit Cole
Pitcher Walks under 1.5

Heliot Ramos
RBI under 0.5

Paul Goldschmidt
HR over 0.5

Research

Graded results

Games

Props