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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

O/U 55.5

GARY'S PICK
Rice +44.5
NCAAF@ Notre Dame· -105

Rice
+44.5

-105 · LOST · RICE 0 · ND 52

Notre Dame

The pick & result

Published pick
Rice Owls +44.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Lost
Final score
0-52

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

DRAFTKINGS · 33 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 9 10:49 AM
Close
Sep 12 12:16 PM
Move
SPREADNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-118)Price
TOTAL55.5 (-105)54.5 (-108)−1
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 9 10:49 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112)55.5 (-105)—
Sep 9 1:43 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-108)55.5 (+102)—
Sep 9 2:44 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112)54.5 (-122)—
Sep 9 4:45 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-118)55.5 (-102)—
Sep 10 10:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)54.5 (-120)—
Sep 10 11:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 10 11:32 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112)55.5 (+102)—
Sep 10 2:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 10 4:33 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-108)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 10 5:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 10 5:26 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 10 6:56 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-108)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 10 8:57 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 10 9:28 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 10 10:28 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110)54.5 (-120)—
Sep 10 11:59 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 11 12:29 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)54.5 (-115)—
Sep 11 12:59 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 11 12:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)55.5 (-102)—
Sep 11 1:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 11 3:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 11 4:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110)54.5 (-120)—
Sep 11 5:30 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 11 5:41 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)54.5 (-118)—
Sep 11 5:52 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 11 6:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)54.5 (-120)—
Sep 11 9:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-120)55.5 (-102)—
Sep 12 9:52 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100)55.5 (-102)—
Sep 12 10:02 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100)54.5 (-120)—
Sep 12 10:34 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 12 11:35 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100)54.5 (-108)—
Sep 12 11:55 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (-105)54.5 (-112)—
Sep 12 12:05 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115)54.5 (-108)—
CLOSESep 12 12:16 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-118)54.5 (-108)—

The read

Notre Dame opens its home schedule Saturday afternoon with Rice bringing its shotgun option to South Bend. The Irish arrive after taking over against Wisconsin in the second half; the Owls arrive with an offense built around the ground game.

I’m backing Rice to sustain enough possessions to stay inside this number. Against Houston Christian, the Owls ran 69 times and controlled possession for 39:32. Their option makes the defense account for the inside handoff, quarterback and pitch, giving Rice different ways to keep a series moving. That production came against FCS opposition, so the jump in competition matters considerably. My judgment is that Rice can make that structure function in stretches and consume time even while Notre Dame controls the game.

Notre Dame’s strongest argument is its ability to turn defensive stops into sustained touchdown production. The Irish earned second-half touchdowns on drives covering 70, 75 and 88 yards against Wisconsin. But they also had three first-half three-and-outs and led only 13–10 at halftime. Their eventual separation included a pick-six and a touchdown following a recovered kickoff at Wisconsin’s 13. Those plays explain part of the opening result; I would not build this ticket around another set of scoring shortcuts. Rice extending even some possessions would make an uneven offensive start more consequential for Notre Dame at this spread.

The danger to Rice is clear: Notre Dame held Wisconsin to 67 rushing yards, while Rice produced only 35 passing yards in its opener. If the Irish repeatedly disrupt the option on early downs, Rice could struggle to sustain possessions at all. That is the strongest route to a Notre Dame cover. I expect enough successful option series to interrupt that sequence, with the Irish having to work through sustained drives for much of their scoring. That combination puts me on Rice +44.5.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • ND's passing game is +211 yards per game

    211 YPG

    RICE is at 28 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ND is at 239 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

TRENCHES

  • RICE is +354 rush yards per game

    354 YPG

    RICE is at 465 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ND is at 111 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • ND's front holds runners to 81 fewer yards per game

    81 YPG

    RICE is at 148 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ND is at 67 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • RICE holds the ball 7:56 longer per game

    7:56 TOP

    RICE is at 39:32 time of possession per game over 1 game; ND is at 31:36 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

TURNOVERS

  • ND's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    RICE is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; ND is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

COACHING

  • RICE's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down

    2 ATT/G

    RICE is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; ND is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

MISMATCH

  • RICE's ground game against ND's — 465 rush yards a game to 111

    465 VS 111

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — RICE 465, ND 111, over 1 and 1 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • RICE's secondary gives up 121 fewer passing yards per game

    121 YPG

    RICE is at 96 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ND is at 217 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

  • RICE allows a third-down conversion rate 7.7 percentage points lower

    7.7 PP

    RICE is at 30.8% third downs allowed over 1 game; ND is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

REPLACEMENT

  • Quinton Jackson (RB) is out for RICE

    OUT

    Rice’s offense will be without RB Quinton Jackson against Notre Dame; he will travel but will not play after the significant undisclosed injury reported Sep. 10. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.

  • Quincy Porter (WR) is out for ND

    OUT

    Notre Dame’s offense will be without WR Quincy Porter against Rice after he was listed OUT with a left-knee injury on Sep. 10. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.

  • Matty Augustine (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    He was listed out for the Rice game with a right-foot injury. Per One Foot Down / Joshua Vowles, Sep 10.

  • Christopher Burgess Jr. (DL) is out for ND

    OUT

    He was listed out for the Rice game with a left-tibia injury. Per One Foot Down / Joshua Vowles, Sep 10.

SITUATIONAL

  • RICE's third-down conversion rate is 31.4 percentage points higher

    31.4 PP

    RICE is at 64.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ND is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • RICE moves the chains 7 more times per game

    7 FD

    RICE is at 27 first downs per game over 1 game; ND is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • Rice at No. 3 Notre Dame

    #3 AP

    Notre Dame is No. 3 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,512 points and four first-place votes, up one spot. Rice is unranked, so the poll draws a clear respect gap for Notre Dame at home.

AFTER GARY

  • RICE +44.5 → +44.5

    NO MOVE

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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