Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
O/U 55.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Rice Owls +44.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 0-52
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 33 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 12 12:16 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112) | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-118) | Price |
| TOTAL | 55.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-108) | −1 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 9 1:43 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-108) | 55.5 (+102) | — |
| Sep 9 2:44 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-122) | — |
| Sep 9 4:45 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-118) | 55.5 (-102) | — |
| Sep 10 10:01 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 10 11:01 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 10 11:32 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112) | 55.5 (+102) | — |
| Sep 10 2:03 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 10 4:33 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 10 5:03 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 10 5:26 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 10 6:56 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 10 8:57 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 10 9:28 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 10 10:28 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 10 11:59 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 11 12:29 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 11 12:59 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 11 12:02 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 55.5 (-102) | — |
| Sep 11 1:02 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 11 3:02 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 11 4:03 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 11 5:30 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 11 5:41 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 11 5:52 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 11 6:02 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 11 9:32 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-120) | 55.5 (-102) | — |
| Sep 12 9:52 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100) | 55.5 (-102) | — |
| Sep 12 10:02 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100) | 54.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 12 10:34 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100) | 55.5 (+100) | — |
| Sep 12 11:35 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (+100) | 54.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 12 11:55 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -45.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 12 12:05 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-108) | — |
| CLOSESep 12 12:16 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -44.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-108) | — |
The read
Notre Dame opens its home schedule Saturday afternoon with Rice bringing its shotgun option to South Bend. The Irish arrive after taking over against Wisconsin in the second half; the Owls arrive with an offense built around the ground game.
I’m backing Rice to sustain enough possessions to stay inside this number. Against Houston Christian, the Owls ran 69 times and controlled possession for 39:32. Their option makes the defense account for the inside handoff, quarterback and pitch, giving Rice different ways to keep a series moving. That production came against FCS opposition, so the jump in competition matters considerably. My judgment is that Rice can make that structure function in stretches and consume time even while Notre Dame controls the game.
Notre Dame’s strongest argument is its ability to turn defensive stops into sustained touchdown production. The Irish earned second-half touchdowns on drives covering 70, 75 and 88 yards against Wisconsin. But they also had three first-half three-and-outs and led only 13–10 at halftime. Their eventual separation included a pick-six and a touchdown following a recovered kickoff at Wisconsin’s 13. Those plays explain part of the opening result; I would not build this ticket around another set of scoring shortcuts. Rice extending even some possessions would make an uneven offensive start more consequential for Notre Dame at this spread.
The danger to Rice is clear: Notre Dame held Wisconsin to 67 rushing yards, while Rice produced only 35 passing yards in its opener. If the Irish repeatedly disrupt the option on early downs, Rice could struggle to sustain possessions at all. That is the strongest route to a Notre Dame cover. I expect enough successful option series to interrupt that sequence, with the Irish having to work through sustained drives for much of their scoring. That combination puts me on Rice +44.5.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
ND's passing game is +211 yards per game
211 YPGRICE is at 28 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ND is at 239 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHES
RICE is +354 rush yards per game
354 YPGRICE is at 465 rushing yards per game over 1 game; ND is at 111 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
ND's front holds runners to 81 fewer yards per game
81 YPGRICE is at 148 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ND is at 67 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPT
RICE holds the ball 7:56 longer per game
7:56 TOPRICE is at 39:32 time of possession per game over 1 game; ND is at 31:36 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERS
ND's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
1 TORICE is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; ND is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
COACHING
RICE's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
2 ATT/GRICE is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; ND is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCH
RICE's ground game against ND's — 465 rush yards a game to 111
465 VS 111The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — RICE 465, ND 111, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COVERAGE
RICE's secondary gives up 121 fewer passing yards per game
121 YPGRICE is at 96 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ND is at 217 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
RICE allows a third-down conversion rate 7.7 percentage points lower
7.7 PPRICE is at 30.8% third downs allowed over 1 game; ND is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENT
Quinton Jackson (RB) is out for RICE
OUTRice’s offense will be without RB Quinton Jackson against Notre Dame; he will travel but will not play after the significant undisclosed injury reported Sep. 10. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
Quincy Porter (WR) is out for ND
OUTNotre Dame’s offense will be without WR Quincy Porter against Rice after he was listed OUT with a left-knee injury on Sep. 10. The facts do not identify who will absorb his work.
Matty Augustine (OL) is out for ND
OUTHe was listed out for the Rice game with a right-foot injury. Per One Foot Down / Joshua Vowles, Sep 10.
Christopher Burgess Jr. (DL) is out for ND
OUTHe was listed out for the Rice game with a left-tibia injury. Per One Foot Down / Joshua Vowles, Sep 10.
SITUATIONAL
RICE's third-down conversion rate is 31.4 percentage points higher
31.4 PPRICE is at 64.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ND is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
RICE moves the chains 7 more times per game
7 FDRICE is at 27 first downs per game over 1 game; ND is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
Rice at No. 3 Notre Dame
#3 APNotre Dame is No. 3 in the AP poll at 1-0 with 1,512 points and four first-place votes, up one spot. Rice is unranked, so the poll draws a clear respect gap for Notre Dame at home.
AFTER GARY
RICE +44.5 → +44.5
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
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