Mets at Yankees
O/U 8.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees ML -164
- Published odds
- -164
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 12-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 9 moves| Market | Opened Sep 12 5:00 AM | Close Sep 12 12:22 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+114) | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (-114) | 8 (-114) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -187 | Yankees -170 | +17 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 12 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+114) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -187 · Mets +154 |
| Sep 12 7:15 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+119) | 8 (-113) | Yankees -186 · Mets +153 |
| Sep 12 8:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+119) | 8 (-113) | Yankees -191 · Mets +157 |
| Sep 12 9:44 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -174 · Mets +143 |
| Sep 12 10:23 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+129) | 8 (-117) | Yankees -168 · Mets +139 |
| Sep 12 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+129) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -165 · Mets +136 |
| Sep 12 12:04 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -170 · Mets +141 |
| Sep 12 12:04 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -170 · Mets +141 |
| Sep 12 12:13 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -171 · Mets +141 |
| CLOSESep 12 12:22 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 8 (-114) | Yankees -170 · Mets +141 |
The read
Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, and the Subway Series returns to Yankee Stadium. I’m backing the Yankees at -164, with their lineup’s handedness carrying the most weight. Six right-handed hitters are confirmed against a Mets starter who has allowed right-handers an .803 OPS in 166 at-bats, compared with .573 against left-handers. That gives this particular Yankees order a favorable opening. The sample warrants caution, and handedness alone cannot establish every hitter’s advantage, but the opposing pitcher’s measured results make this a matchup concern I’m willing to back.
The Yankees also have the stronger starting-pitching profile: a 1.09 WHIP and 9.2 K/9, compared with 1.19 and 6.9 for the Mets’ starter. Recent results reinforce that distinction. The Yankees starter’s last five outings produced a 3.56 ERA; the Mets starter’s produced a 5.00 ERA, with 34 hits allowed in 27 innings despite just 3 walks. That combination matters to my decision: the Mets starter has recently allowed frequent hits, and today’s opposing lineup emphasizes the side against which he has struggled. Together, the pitching advantage and that specific offensive opportunity are enough for me to pay -164 with moderate conviction.
The strongest argument against my pick is the Mets’ offense. Their recent results include several games scoring 10 or more runs, and the Yankees starter has surrendered 17 home runs in 111.0 innings. The Mets have a credible path to an early lead that changes the demands on both bullpens. I take that threat seriously. Still, the Yankees starter has allowed left-handed hitters a .636 OPS overall, so the Mets’ left-handed presence does not establish a broad advantage against him. My judgment is that the Yankees’ combination of starting pitching and a favorable opposing platoon split outweighs the Mets’ recent offensive surge. I’m taking the Yankees to win outright.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
1.012Paul Goldschmidt has a 1.012 OPS in 146 AB vs. lefties, compared with .568 in 180 AB vs. righties. He leads off tonight against LHP Zac Thornton, aligning the 1st spot with his stronger measured split.
Spencer Jones (bats L) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
1.186Spencer Jones has a 1.186 OPS in 41 AB vs. lefties, compared with .687 in 167 AB vs. righties. He bats 6th tonight against LHP Zac Thornton, though the smaller left-handed sample limits the comparison.
COOLING OFF
Carson Benge: .501 OPS in Last 15 Days
.501Carson Benge has a .501 OPS over the last 15 days across 50 AB, versus .744 for the season. That is 0.243 below his norm.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
IN 10Yankee Stadium is 78° and partly cloudy tonight, with a 10 mph wind blowing in from right field. The NYM-NYY total is 8, but no measured park-effect comparison is supplied.
STREAK
NYY have won 4 straight
W4The Yankees have outscored opponents by 16 runs during their four-game winning streak and are 7-3 over their last 10. No Mets-specific comparison is supplied for tonight’s matchup.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Paul Goldschmidt
STARTSTART: Use the confirmed leadoff assignment against a left-hander Why now: Goldschmidt is confirmed first against probable left-hander Zac Thornton [today]. His observed split against lefties is .315/.409/.603 with 11 homers in 146 at-bats, substantially stronger than his .568 OPS against righties [hand_splits_hitter]. This is a matchup-specific lineup call rather than a blanket endorsement. Who it fits: Managers seeking runs, average or power from first base, especially in daily categories or points lineups. The risk: Thornton has a 3.53 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while Goldschmidt's contact estimates trail his actual season production [opponent_pitchers, expected_hitter]. Watch next: Verify Thornton remains the opposing starter before the 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 12, 01:35 PM ET.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKGERRIT COLEPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5
Cole has gone over this number in only three of his last eight starts, and the Mets lineup has just a 9% walk rate in the matchup data. His season average is 1.2 walks per start, and the Mets are not built to consistently extend at-bats against his fastball-slider combination. I’m backing Cole to finish with one walk or fewer.
- GARY'S PICKHELIOT RAMOSRBI UNDER 0.5
Ramos is hitting fourth, but the RBI opportunity has not translated lately: he has driven in a run in only three of his last 15 games. He has also gone without an RBI in 12 of those 15. The lineup around him is dangerous, but that price is asking him to convert one of a limited number of chances, and I’m taking the under.
- THE LONG SHOTPAUL GOLDSCHMIDTHR OVER 0.5
Goldschmidt is the home-run long shot I want. He draws a left-handed starter and owns a .315 average with a 1.012 OPS and 11 homers against lefties this season. He also leads off in Yankee Stadium, where the short right-field porch gives his pull power a little extra margin. The recent homer count is quiet, but this is the matchup on the board that gives him the clearest path to one swing.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day