Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars
O/U 48.5 · SPREAD BYU Cougars -7.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Arizona Wildcats +6.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 17-28
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 21 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 12 11:30 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -7 (-110) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 47.5 (-112) | 48.5 (-110) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | BYU Cougars -295 | BYU Cougars -275 | +20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-112) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 9 12:42 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -285 · Arizona Wildcats +230 |
| Sep 9 2:44 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +250 |
| Sep 9 7:46 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-112) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 12:32 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-108) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 1:03 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 1:33 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 2:03 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 4:03 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 7:57 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-115) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 10 8:27 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-105) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 11 4:30 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 11 6:02 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 11 6:22 PM | — | — | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 11 6:32 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | BYU Cougars -300 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 11 7:50 PM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 12 6:30 AM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-112) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 12 7:00 AM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 12 9:11 AM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-112) | BYU Cougars -295 · Arizona Wildcats +240 |
| Sep 12 9:21 AM | BYU Cougars -7.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-112) | BYU Cougars -285 · Arizona Wildcats +230 |
| Sep 12 9:42 AM | BYU Cougars -7 (-112) | 48.5 (-112) | BYU Cougars -275 · Arizona Wildcats +225 |
| CLOSESep 12 11:30 AM | BYU Cougars -7 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | BYU Cougars -275 · Arizona Wildcats +220 |
The read
It’s an afternoon Big 12 opener in Provo, with No. 15 BYU hosting Arizona. Both teams arrive after comfortable opening wins, and both returning quarterbacks now face a more demanding examination.
The matchup that puts me on Arizona is its defensive front against BYU’s ability to stay on schedule. Arizona produced five sacks and 11 tackles for loss against Northern Arizona, with disruption extending beyond the plays that ended in sacks. BYU’s opening offensive success rate was 69.4% on standard downs and 37.5% on passing downs. Those are opening-game samples against different opponents, but they identify a credible mechanism: Arizona can interrupt possessions by putting BYU into the situations where its offense was less effective. I expect enough of those interruptions to matter across four quarters.
Fifita gives Arizona a way to answer when BYU does score. He completed 22 of 29 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the opener. The reported expansion of his protection adjustments and play-changing responsibilities matters against a BYU defense whose pressure was more substantial than its sack total suggests. The eligibility clearances for Ismail Mahdi and Max Harris also restore experienced backfield and linebacker options, although the case does not depend on either handling a particular workload.
The opening scoreboards need careful interpretation. BYU earned its dominant win, but early takeaways supplied short fields and a kickoff return added another touchdown. Arizona’s defense allowed no offensive points; the touchdown it conceded on the scoreboard came from a backup quarterback’s interception. Arizona’s two lost fumbles remain a genuine concern. My expectation of a competitive game rests on its offense sustaining possessions and its front producing stops, rather than an assumed reversal in turnover fortunes.
The strongest argument against this ticket is Arizona’s secondary. Its missed tackles and coverage errors allowed damaging plays even while the defense stopped possessions frequently. Bachmeier’s efficient passing and Legend Glasker’s scoring debut give BYU a demonstrated way to exploit those mistakes. If Arizona’s defensive breakdowns become touchdowns, its successful snaps elsewhere may not prevent BYU from covering.
I give Arizona’s disruptive front and returning quarterback enough weight to take the points despite that risk. The Wildcats have a credible four-quarter path to staying close, but their secondary leaves more room for BYU to win than I want to accept on an outright ticket. Arizona +6.5 at +100 fits the read.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
ARIZ's passing game is +101 yards per game
101 YPGARIZ is at 314 team passing yards per game over 1 game; BYU is at 213 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHES
BYU is +102 rush yards per game
102 YPGARIZ is at 206 rushing yards per game over 1 game; BYU is at 308 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
ARIZ's front holds runners to 56 fewer yards per game
56 YPGARIZ is at -7 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; BYU is at 49 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
PACE & SCRIPT
BYU is scoring +28 points per game
28 PPGARIZ is at 35 points per game over 1 game; BYU is at 63 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERS
BYU commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
3 TOARIZ is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; BYU is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHING
ARIZ gives away 16 fewer penalty yards per game
16 YDSARIZ is at 30 penalty yards per game over 1 game; BYU is at 46 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCH
BYU's ball security against ARIZ's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to BYU's 0
0 VS 3BYU committed 0 turnovers over one game, compared with ARIZ’s 3 over one game. Protecting possessions is the clearest early divide, though both figures come from one-game samples.
COVERAGE
BYU's secondary gives up 65 fewer passing yards per game
65 YPGARIZ is at 200 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; BYU is at 135 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
ARIZ allows a third-down conversion rate 9.9 percentage points lower
9.9 PPARIZ is at 28.6% third downs allowed over 1 game; BYU is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
BYU lead the series with ARIZ since 2025
1-0 SERIESBYU leads the series since 2025, 1-0, after winning 33-27 at ARIZ on Oct. 11, 2025. The only recent meeting was close; this matchup shifts to BYU.
REPLACEMENT
Sione Moa (RB) is out for the season for BYU
OUT FOR SEASONHe was reported lost for the season after tearing the MCL and PCL in his knee against Utah Tech. Per Jackson Payne, Deseret News, Sep 11.
Jovesa Damuni (RB) is out for BYU
OUTBYU's availability report listed him out against Arizona with no injury disclosed. Per Jackson Payne, Deseret News, Sep 9.
Jacob Nye (TE) is out for BYU
OUTBYU's availability report listed him out against Arizona with no injury disclosed. Per Jackson Payne, Deseret News, Sep 9.
Ezra Funa (DL) is out for ARIZ
OUTThe availability report listed him out against BYU with no injury disclosed. Per Mitch Harper, KSL Sports, Sep 9.
SITUATIONAL
Arizona at No. 15 BYU
#15 APArizona is unranked. BYU is No. 15 in the AP poll at 1-0 (840 points, trend -1).
AFTER GARY
ARIZ +6.5 → +6.5
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics, caesars.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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