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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Penn State Nittany Lions -23.5

GARY'S PICK
Penn State -23.5
NCAAF@ Temple· -120

Penn State
-23.5

-120 · LOST · PSU 27 · TEM 9

Temple

The pick & result

Published pick
Penn State Nittany Lions -23.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Lost
Final score
27-9

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

DRAFTKINGS · 42 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 9 10:49 AM
Close
Sep 12 11:55 AM
Move
SPREADPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)Holds
TOTAL49.5 (-112)49.5 (-112)Holds
MONEYLINEPenn State Nittany Lions -3200Penn State Nittany Lions -3200Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 9 10:49 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)49.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 9 5:45 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-115)49.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 10 11:32 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-115)49.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 10 1:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-115)49.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 10 7:57 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 10 8:57 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 3:02 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 4:03 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 4:30 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-105)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 4:40 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 4:50 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-120)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 5:10 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-115)50.5 (-120)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 5:30 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-120)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 5:41 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 6:22 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 6:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 6:42 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 7:12 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 7:22 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 7:50 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 8:01 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 8:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 9:01 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 9:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (+100)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 10:03 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 10:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-105)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 11 11:03 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-120)51.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 11 11:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (+100)51.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 12 12:03 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)51.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 12 5:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2400 · Temple Owls +1200
Sep 12 6:30 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 12 8:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 12 8:30 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 12 9:21 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 12 10:02 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 12 10:24 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)51.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 12 10:44 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-120)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 12 11:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 12 11:15 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-118)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
Sep 12 11:25 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 12 11:35 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -2800 · Temple Owls +1300
Sep 12 11:45 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -23.5 (-120)50.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400
CLOSESep 12 11:55 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -24.5 (-102)49.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -3200 · Temple Owls +1400

The read

Saturday at noon in Philadelphia, Penn State takes its new offense on the road for the first time. Temple stays at Lincoln Financial Field after an opener built around its running game and defensive touchdowns.

I’m laying the points because Penn State’s defensive performance attacks the foundation of Temple’s offense. Keveun Mason ran for 158 yards against Rhode Island, but Penn State held Marshall to 44 rushing yards and recorded a 41.7% defensive stuff rate. Different opponents matter; those results do not guarantee the same outcome here. My judgment is that Penn State can interrupt Temple’s early-down rushing success often enough to make its passing game carry more responsibility. Neither Jaxon Smolik nor Ajani Sheppard secured the starting job in the opener.

On the other side, Rocco Becht gives Penn State a demonstrated way to score without needing its running game to dominate. He threw for 271 yards and four touchdowns against Marshall, with Koby Howard supplying 161 receiving yards. Temple allowed downfield openings against Rhode Island, and its reported pass-rush lane mistakes give me another reason to favor Penn State’s passing execution in this matchup. Temple’s two interception-return touchdowns were valuable plays, but I would not build its defensive outlook around repeating them.

Temple’s best cover argument is legitimate: extend possessions through Mason, exploit its return game, and make Penn State earn its separation through sustained drives. The Owls already delivered a 17-play touchdown possession, while Penn State averaged only 3.6 rushing yards per carry. That is the strongest obstacle to laying this number. I still favor Penn State because its combination of run disruption and passing production offers the more convincing four-quarter path. I expect Temple to struggle to sustain enough scoring possessions to keep pace, rather than Penn State needing another defensive shutout to cover.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • PSU's passing game is +182 yards per game

    182 YPG

    PSU is at 324 team passing yards per game over 1 game; TEM is at 142 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

TRENCHES

  • TEM is +64 rush yards per game

    64 YPG

    PSU is at 163 rushing yards per game over 1 game; TEM is at 227 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • PSU's front holds runners to 53 fewer yards per game

    53 YPG

    PSU is at 44 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 97 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • PSU's defense gives up 14 fewer points per game

    14 PPG

    PSU is at 0 points allowed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

TURNOVERS

  • PSU commits 1 fewer turnovers per game

    1 TO

    PSU is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • TEM's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    PSU is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; TEM is at 3 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

COACHING

  • TEM gives away 25 fewer penalty yards per game

    25 YDS

    PSU is at 45 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TEM is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

MISMATCH

  • PSU's passing attack against TEM's — 324 pass yards a game to 142

    324 VS 142

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — PSU 324, TEM 142, over 1 and 1 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • PSU allows a third-down conversion rate 33.8 percentage points lower

    33.8 PP

    Through 2026-09-11, PSU allowed a 9.1% third-down rate over 1 game, getting off the field 33.8% more often than TEM at 42.9%, based on opposing team boxes this 2026 season. Down-and-distance and opponent-quality context are not supplied, limiting the one-game comparison.

  • PSU's secondary gives up 92 fewer passing yards per game

    92 YPG

    PSU is at 103 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEM is at 195 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

REPLACEMENT

  • LaVar Arrington II (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    He underwent cleanup surgery after a late-camp injury and was given a four-to-six-week recovery timetable. Per Penn State Athletics, Sep 8.

  • Giakoby Hills (OL) is out for TEM

    OUT

    He was injured against Rhode Island and was confirmed to be sidelined for at least six weeks. Per The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sep 7.

  • Luke Watson (OL) is out for TEM

    OUT

    He was confirmed unavailable for Saturday amid Temple's offensive-line injuries. Per The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sep 11.

SITUATIONAL

  • PSU's third-down conversion rate is 25 percentage points higher

    25 PP

    PSU is at 50% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; TEM is at 25% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • PSU moves the chains 6 more times per game

    6 FD

    PSU is at 25 first downs per game over 1 game; TEM is at 19 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • No. 16 Penn State at Temple

    #16 AP

    Penn State is No. 16 in the AP poll at 1-0 (621 points, trend +2). Temple is unranked.

AFTER GARY

  • PSU -23.5 → -24.5

    GARY +1

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About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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