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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers

O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5

GARY'S PICK
Wake Forest -2.5
NCAAF@ Purdue· -120

Wake Forest
-2.5

-120 · LOST · WAKE 38 · PUR 36

Purdue

The pick & result

Published pick
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Lost
Final score
38-36

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

DRAFTKINGS · 32 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 9 10:49 AM
Close
Sep 12 11:55 AM
Move
SPREADWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (+102)Price
TOTAL49.5 (-112)51.5 (-102)+2
MONEYLINEWake Forest Demon Deacons -148Wake Forest Demon Deacons -142+6
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 9 10:49 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 9 11:52 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 9 3:44 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 10 12:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)49.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 10 5:56 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)49.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 4:40 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)49.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 5:41 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 6:32 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)50.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 6:42 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 7:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 7:12 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)50.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 7:50 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 8:01 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 8:31 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)50.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 11 9:01 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 9:32 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)49.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 10:03 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)50.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 10:33 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)49.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 11:03 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)49.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 11 11:33 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)49.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 12 5:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)50.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 12 6:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)50.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 12 7:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)50.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 12 8:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-112)50.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 12 8:22 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-110)50.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -155 · Purdue Boilermakers +130
Sep 12 9:42 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)50.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 12 10:24 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-108)50.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 12 10:44 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-105)50.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 12 11:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-105)50.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 12 11:15 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (-102)51.5 (-102)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 12 11:35 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (+102)51.5 (-102)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 · Purdue Boilermakers +124
Sep 12 11:45 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (+102)51.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -142 · Purdue Boilermakers +120
CLOSESep 12 11:55 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -3 (+102)51.5 (-102)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -142 · Purdue Boilermakers +120

The read

It’s a noon kickoff at Ross-Ade Stadium, with both teams coming off comfortable opening wins. Now Purdue and Wake Forest get a more demanding examination of what those performances actually established.

The matchup that puts me on Wake is its explosive offense against Purdue’s coverage breakdowns. Purdue surrendered three completions of at least 40 yards against Indiana State, and some of its late trouble came with starters still playing. Wake showed an immediate ability to punish mistakes: Gio Lopez threw for 350 yards, Carlos Hernandez caught five passes for 165 yards, and Ty Clark III added 105 rushing yards. Those totals won’t automatically repeat, but the demonstrated ability to produce big gains lines up with Purdue’s clearest defensive vulnerability.

Purdue has a legitimate answer. Its offensive success rate was 50.0%, compared with Wake’s 42.6%, and its opener showed stronger results near the line of scrimmage on both sides. Ryan Browne threw three touchdowns without an interception, just as Lopez did. If Purdue sustains possessions and disrupts Wake before those big plays develop, it can control this game. That is the strongest argument against this ticket.

I give Wake the edge because Purdue’s offensive consistency still came with unfinished drives. Purdue averaged 3.700 points per scoring opportunity, compared with Wake’s 4.286; those opportunities include drives reaching the opponent’s 40. Wake’s defense allowed frequent successful plays against Akron but limited their damage. My read is that Purdue will have to execute through more extended possessions, while Wake has the better opportunity to bypass that work with substantial gains.

Neither opener establishes a settled team identity, and Wake’s 11 penalties for 115 yards are a real obstacle. But I expect its explosive production to matter more here than Purdue’s advantage in opening-game consistency. I’m taking Wake -2.5: the case is for its scoring opportunities to create separation, rather than merely surviving a close finish.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

TRENCHES

  • PUR's front holds runners to 83 fewer yards per game

    83 YPG

    WAKE is at 149 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; PUR is at 66 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

  • WAKE is +26 rush yards per game

    26 YPG

    WAKE is at 203 rushing yards per game over 1 game; PUR is at 177 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • PUR holds the ball 7:58 longer per game

    7:58 TOP

    WAKE is at 29:24 time of possession per game over 1 game; PUR is at 37:22 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

COACHING

  • PUR gives away 30 fewer penalty yards per game

    30 YDS

    WAKE is at 115 penalty yards per game over 1 game; PUR is at 85 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • WAKE's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down

    1 ATT/G

    WAKE is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; PUR is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

MISMATCH

  • PUR's clock control — 37:22 of possession a game to WAKE's 29:24

    37:22 VS 29:24

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — WAKE 29:24, PUR 37:22, over 1 and 1 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • PUR allows a third-down conversion rate 12.8 percentage points lower

    12.8 PP

    WAKE is at 46.2% third downs allowed over 1 game; PUR is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

  • WAKE's secondary gives up 62 fewer passing yards per game

    62 YPG

    WAKE is at 156 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; PUR is at 218 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kylan Fox (TE) is out for the season for PUR

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Kylan Fox remained out for the entire 2026 season with a knee injury suffered in fall camp, Punt & Rally reported Sep. 10. Purdue’s offense will be without the tight end against Wake Forest; no replacement was identified.

  • Raderrion Daniels (DB) is out for the season for PUR

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Raderrion Daniels remained out for the entire 2026 season with a knee injury suffered in fall camp, Punt & Rally reported Sep. 10. Purdue’s defense will be without the defensive back against Wake Forest; no replacement was identified.

SITUATIONAL

  • WAKE's fourth-down conversion rate is 100 percentage points higher

    100 PP

    WAKE is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; PUR is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • PUR moves the chains 8 more times per game

    8 FD

    WAKE is at 20 first downs per game over 1 game; PUR is at 28 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • PUR's third-down conversion rate is 7.9 percentage points higher

    7.9 PP

    WAKE is at 46.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; PUR is at 54.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.

  • WAKE comes off a bye

    9d vs 8d

    WAKE comes in on 9 days of rest — a bye behind it; PUR on 8 days since its last game.

AFTER GARY

  • WAKE -2.5 → -2.5

    NO MOVE

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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