Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies
O/U 52.5 · SPREAD Maryland Terrapins -11.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- UConn Huskies +11.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 38-14
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 23 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 12 12:05 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | −1 |
| TOTAL | 52.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Maryland Terrapins -475 | Maryland Terrapins -450 | +25 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 9 11:52 AM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 9 1:43 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 9 2:44 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 9 6:46 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 9 8:16 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 10 6:00 AM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 10 11:32 AM | Maryland Terrapins -13 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 10 1:03 PM | Maryland Terrapins -13 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -500 · UConn Huskies +380 |
| Sep 10 3:33 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 10 4:03 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 10 5:03 PM | Maryland Terrapins -12 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 10 6:26 PM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 10 6:56 PM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +350 |
| Sep 11 5:01 AM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 11 8:31 AM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 11 9:00 AM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 11 11:31 AM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +360 |
| Sep 11 12:02 PM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -475 · UConn Huskies +375 |
| Sep 11 1:02 PM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +350 |
| Sep 11 4:30 PM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-115) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +350 |
| Sep 12 9:11 AM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +350 |
| Sep 12 9:31 AM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-112) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +350 |
| CLOSESep 12 12:05 PM | Maryland Terrapins -11.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Maryland Terrapins -450 · UConn Huskies +350 |
The read
Saturday afternoon at Rentschler Field brings Maryland’s first road game and Jason Candle’s next test at UConn. Both teams arrive after overwhelming FCS opponents in their openers. Now the competition changes.
Osborne’s ability to produce through the air and on the ground is the strongest reason I want these points. He passed for 265 yards and rushed for 90 against Lafayette, with Javon Brown supplying six catches for 92 yards. His running also carried into tougher circumstances in his previous bowl start against Louisville, when he rushed for 77 yards. That gives UConn a demonstrated way to extend possessions when the original passing opportunity disappears. My read is that his mobility will keep some Maryland defensive wins from becoming drive-ending stops.
Maryland’s running game is the strongest argument against this ticket. Its offensive success rate was 59.5% in the opener against UConn’s 51.4%, and its defense allowed successful plays just 23.1% of the time against UConn’s 27.8%. Sustaining that advantage would let Maryland control possessions and build separation. But Washington’s uneven passing performance matters here: he averaged 6 yards per attempt against Hampton, while Osborne averaged 10.19 against Lafayette. Maryland also converted its passing-down situations into successful plays less frequently, 31.3% against UConn’s 40.0%. Those are opening-game descriptions, but they identify where I expect UConn to keep the matchup competitive when possessions become harder.
UConn’s defense showed an ability to interrupt a promising drive with consecutive sacks against Lafayette. I expect enough interruptions today to make Washington carry meaningful possessions, and his inaccurate throws and forced attempts in the opener give me a concrete reason to question Maryland’s ability to finish every stretch of control with separation. UConn’s explosive passing and Osborne’s running give the Huskies ways to answer after Maryland scores.
The risk is clear: Maryland recorded five sacks, and UConn committed two turnovers in its opener. If Maryland contains Osborne while disrupting his passing, those offensive answers can disappear. I’m backing Osborne’s ability to keep drives alive and create scoring opportunities through four quarters. That is the case for taking +11.5: Maryland can have the stronger stretches without pulling far enough away to cover.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
CONN's passing game is +89 yards per game
89 YPGMD is at 281 team passing yards per game over 1 game; CONN is at 370 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TRENCHES
MD is +64 rush yards per game
64 YPGMD is at 365 rushing yards per game over 1 game; CONN is at 301 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
TURNOVERS
MD commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
2 TOMD is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; CONN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
COACHING
MD gives away 64 fewer penalty yards per game
64 YDSMD is at 70 penalty yards per game over 1 game; CONN is at 134 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
MISMATCH
MD's ball security against CONN's giveaways — 2 turnovers a game to MD's 0
0 VS 2The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — MD 0, CONN 2, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COVERAGE
MD's secondary gives up 70 fewer passing yards per game
70 YPGMD is at 75 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; CONN is at 145 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
MD allows a third-down conversion rate 6.7 percentage points lower
6.7 PPMD is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; CONN is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-11.
REPLACEMENT
Zahir Mathis (LB) is out for the season for MD
OUT FOR SEASONMathis remains out for the 2026 season with a leg injury suffered during fall camp. Per Punt & Rally, Sep 10.
Josiah Teasley (WR) is out for MD
OUTTeasley continues to practice but will not play while his legal matter proceeds. Per Inside the Black and Gold, Sep 9.
Dontay Joyner (DB) is out for MD
OUTJoyner is practicing but remains unavailable for games while university conduct requirements related to his legal case are resolved. Per Inside the Black and Gold, Sep 9.
Jake Merklinger (QB) is questionable for CONN
QUESTIONABLEMerklinger did not dress against Lafayette because of an undisclosed injury and was listed as questionable against Maryland. Per Edge Labs, Sep 9.
SITUATIONAL
MD's third-down conversion rate is 7.1 percentage points higher
7.1 PPMD is at 57.1% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; CONN is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-11.
AFTER GARY
CONN +11.5 → +11.5
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 12, 2026 at 8:10 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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