Mets at Yankees

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  ANTHONY VOLPEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBNew York Yankees· -155

  7:05 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is about as easy as these boards get. Volpe delivered a three-hit, five-RBI night with a grand slam in his return from Triple-A on Thursday, and tonight's bar is just one hit, run, or RBI — he's cleared that in eleven of his last fifteen games. He's locked into an everyday role in the two-hole of a lineup that just put up ten runs on Colorado, hitting in front of Judge, Bellinger and García, and Boone made clear after Thursday's win that Volpe earned this chance rather than just inheriting it because Chisholm went down. I'll be straight about the matchup: McLean has been rough on left-handed bats this year but he's held righties like Volpe to a .511 OPS, so this isn't a favorable pitching matchup on paper. What sells me is the math around it — Volpe gets three or four trips to the plate, the Mets bullpen has allowed runs in bunches all series and is sitting on a 7.03 ERA over its last week, and it only takes one clean swing or one time around the bases against that relief mix to get this home. A hot bat getting everyday at-bats with a shaky pen waiting behind the starter is enough for me to lean into a number this short.

  ×

  Anthony Volpe
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -155 · 7:05 PM ET

  New York Yankees

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is about as easy as these boards get. Volpe delivered a three-hit, five-RBI night with a grand slam in his return from Triple-A on Thursday, and tonight's bar is just one hit, run, or RBI — he's cleared that in eleven of his last fifteen games.

  He's locked into an everyday role in the two-hole of a lineup that just put up ten runs on Colorado, hitting in front of Judge, Bellinger and García, and Boone made clear after Thursday's win that Volpe earned this chance rather than just inheriting it because Chisholm went down. I'll be straight about the matchup: McLean has been rough on left-handed bats this year but he's held righties like Volpe to a .511 OPS, so this isn't a favorable pitching matchup on paper.

  What sells me is the math around it — Volpe gets three or four trips to the plate, the Mets bullpen has allowed runs in bunches all series and is sitting on a 7.03 ERA over its last week, and it only takes one clean swing or one time around the bases against that relief mix to get this home. A hot bat getting everyday at-bats with a shaky pen waiting behind the starter is enough for me to lean into a number this short.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  NOLAN MCLEANPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

  MLBNew York Mets· -134

  7:05 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  McLean is in the best form of his season right now, and I'm backing him to keep the Yankees off the board. Over his last three starts he's allowed two earned runs across nineteen innings, a 0.95 ERA, and the under on this exact number has hit in seven of his last eight turns. He's also sitting on six days of rest after a career-high 105 pitches against the Giants, plenty of time to be sharp tonight. The counter here is real: Boone has stacked six left-handed bats into the lineup, and McLean has allowed a .699 OPS to lefties this season against a much tighter .511 mark to righties. But he manages contact well against everybody — a 6.3 percent barrel rate and 35.7 percent hard-hit rate allowed on the year — and he's averaging barely over seventeen outs a start, which caps his own exposure before the lineup can turn over twice. Yankee Stadium plays hitter-friendly and the wind is blowing out tonight, so this isn't a lock, but McLean has allowed more than two earned runs in a start exactly once in his last eight tries, and I need a much better reason than a short porch to bet against that kind of consistency.

  ×

  Nolan McLean
  Pitcher Earned Runs under 2.5

  -134 · 7:05 PM ET

  New York Mets

  Read Gary’s Take

  McLean is in the best form of his season right now, and I'm backing him to keep the Yankees off the board. Over his last three starts he's allowed two earned runs across nineteen innings, a 0.95 ERA, and the under on this exact number has hit in seven of his last eight turns.

  He's also sitting on six days of rest after a career-high 105 pitches against the Giants, plenty of time to be sharp tonight. The counter here is real: Boone has stacked six left-handed bats into the lineup, and McLean has allowed a .699 OPS to lefties this season against a much tighter .511 mark to righties.

  But he manages contact well against everybody — a 6.3 percent barrel rate and 35.7 percent hard-hit rate allowed on the year — and he's averaging barely over seventeen outs a start, which caps his own exposure before the lineup can turn over twice. Yankee Stadium plays hitter-friendly and the wind is blowing out tonight, so this isn't a lock, but McLean has allowed more than two earned runs in a start exactly once in his last eight tries, and I need a much better reason than a short porch to bet against that kind of consistency.

• THE LONG SHOT

  

  MARK VIENTOSHR OVER 0.5

  MLBNew York Mets· +475

  7:05 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Vientos is back in the lineup tonight for exactly this matchup after sitting the last three games, and the matchup is worth building a card around. He's hitting .286 with an .899 OPS against left-handers this season, and eight of his thirteen home runs have come against lefties in just 98 at-bats — a homer every twelve or so at-bats when a southpaw is on the mound. Rodón is a fly-ball arm, under a 0.60 groundout-to-flyout ratio, pitching into a wind blowing out to right field at seven miles an hour tonight in a park that already favors left-handed power with its short porch. Vientos has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games and he's 2-for-10 in his career against Rodón. He's a different, much quieter hitter against right-handers, so I'm not counting on him once the bullpen turns over, but the exposure that matters here is his first two or three looks at a fly-ball lefty in a ballpark built for exactly what he does. That's worth a shot at plus money.

  ×

  Mark Vientos
  HR over 0.5

  +475 · 7:05 PM ET

  New York Mets

  Read Gary’s Take

  Vientos is back in the lineup tonight for exactly this matchup after sitting the last three games, and the matchup is worth building a card around. He's hitting .286 with an .899 OPS against left-handers this season, and eight of his thirteen home runs have come against lefties in just 98 at-bats — a homer every twelve or so at-bats when a southpaw is on the mound.

  Rodón is a fly-ball arm, under a 0.60 groundout-to-flyout ratio, pitching into a wind blowing out to right field at seven miles an hour tonight in a park that already favors left-handed power with its short porch. Vientos has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games and he's 2-for-10 in his career against Rodón.

  He's a different, much quieter hitter against right-handers, so I'm not counting on him once the bullpen turns over, but the exposure that matters here is his first two or three looks at a fly-ball lefty in a ballpark built for exactly what he does. That's worth a shot at plus money.