White Sox at Cardinals
O/U 7.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 12 moves| Market | Opened Today 5:00 AM | Close Today 8:10 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | White Sox -1.5 (+147) | White Sox -1.5 (+158) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-102) | 7.5 (-117) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Cardinals -104 | Cardinals -114 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENToday 5:00 AM | White Sox -1.5 (+147) | 8.5 (-102) | Cardinals -104 · White Sox -115 |
| Today 8:00 AM | White Sox -1.5 (+148) | 8 (-117) | Cardinals -104 · White Sox -115 |
| Today 9:00 AM | White Sox -1.5 (+151) | 8 (-114) | Cardinals -106 · White Sox -114 |
| Today 3:14 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+149) | 8 (-106) | Cardinals -107 · White Sox -112 |
| Today 3:14 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+149) | 8 (-106) | Cardinals -107 · White Sox -112 |
| Today 3:14 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+149) | 8 (-106) | Cardinals -107 · White Sox -112 |
| Today 3:22 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+149) | 8 (-102) | Cardinals -107 · White Sox -112 |
| Today 4:30 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+153) | 7.5 (-117) | Cardinals -114 · White Sox -106 |
| Today 5:35 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+158) | 7.5 (-117) | Cardinals -114 · White Sox -106 |
| Today 5:35 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+158) | 7.5 (-117) | Cardinals -114 · White Sox -106 |
| Today 5:35 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+158) | 7.5 (-117) | Cardinals -114 · White Sox -106 |
| Today 5:56 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+157) | 7.5 (-117) | Cardinals -114 · White Sox -106 |
| CLOSEToday 8:10 PM | White Sox -1.5 (+158) | 7.5 (-117) | Cardinals -114 · White Sox -106 |
The read
Friday night under the arch at Busch Stadium, and both clubs walk in dragging three-game losing streaks with the book calling it a coin flip. The one specific thing on this board that I trust is the shape of the Cardinals' lineup against Anthony Kay. Right-handed hitters are batting .287 with an .868 OPS off Kay, and 18 of the 20 home runs he has allowed came from that side. Lefties are hitting .184 with a .511 OPS. Marmol is sending seven right-handed or switch bats at him, with only Burleson and Church hitting from the left. That is the lineup built to hurt Kay, and Kay has been getting hurt: a 6.84 ERA over his last five starts, five homers allowed, and three exits before the fifth inning.
Liberatore is the reason the Cardinals are only -110 at home, and I am fine paying that. He is 5-14 with a 5.57 ERA, and his last five carry a 7.46 ERA with one eight-run outing inside it. But the market is pricing the ugly surface number. His expected wOBA of .337 sits under the .353 he has actually allowed, and over his last 25 innings he has struck out 34 against 6 walks. That does not tell me he pitches well tonight. It tells me the price is not overpaying for him. Both starters project to be short, which turns this into a game decided by the lineups over nine innings, and the lineup with the sharper platoon edge is the home one. The White Sox are 32-40 on the road and 3-7 over their last ten.
The best argument against me is that Chicago is simply the better roster: 4.7 runs per game to 4.5, a 4.13 team ERA to 4.31, and a division lead to protect with sixteen games left while St. Louis plays out the string. Walker is hitting .200 over his last ten and Burleson .211, so the Cardinals' best bats are not exactly rolling. I take the Cardinals anyway because tonight's specific edge outweighs the season-long one. Kay's problem with righties is more severe than Liberatore's, it is aimed at a lineup that is almost entirely righties, and at -110 I am paying nothing for it.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Matthew Liberatore: 10.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
10.29Matthew Liberatore has allowed 16 earned runs in 14 innings across his last 3 starts, with a 10.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Those marks exceed his 5.57 season ERA and 1.47 WHIP entering CHW at STL.
Anthony Kay: 9.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
9.22Anthony Kay has a 9.22 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over 13.2 innings across his last 3 starts. Both exceed his 4.47 season ERA and 1.36 WHIP entering CHW at STL.
PLATOON EDGE
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
.982Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.982 OPS, 141 AB) sits well above his .664 mark the other way (78 AB). Tonight's starter Matthew Liberatore throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
Chase Meidroth (bats R) hits 1st against Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
.912Over 136 AB vs. Left, Chase Meidroth owns a .912 OPS versus .671 in 374 AB the other way. He sees LHP Matthew Liberatore tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
HEAT CHECK
Thomas Saggese: 1.361 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.361Thomas Saggese has a 1.361 OPS over the last 15 days and 33 at-bats. The supplied swing from his .766 season baseline is 0.596.
COOLING OFF
Munetaka Murakami: .459 OPS in Last 15 Days
.459Munetaka Murakami has a .459 OPS over the last 15 days and 48 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.369 drop from his .828 season OPS.
Alec Burleson: .570 OPS in Last 15 Days
.570Alec Burleson has a .570 OPS over the last 15 days and 55 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.246 drop from his .816 season OPS.
HR THREAT
Joshua Baez
+600Gary's Take Seven home runs in 84 at-bats this season, and five of those seven have come in just 35 at-bats against left-handed pitching — a 1.059 OPS split that's about as extreme as this roster offers. Kay throws left-handed, and Kay is precisely the pitcher a right-handed slugger wants to see: righties are hitting .287 with an .868 OPS against him, and 18 of the 20 homers he's allowed this season have come from that side of the plate.
FIRST INNING
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10STL scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Matthew Liberatore: 5.79 ERA, .280 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 6 HR; Anthony Kay: 3.33 ERA, .257 opponent AVG across 27.0 IP, 3 HR.
TEAM RECORD
Cardinals 1-7 in Matthew Liberatore's last 8 starts
1-7The Cardinals are 1-7 in Matthew Liberatore’s last 8 starts this season, including 6 straight losses. Liberatore starts tonight at home against the White Sox.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 11, 2026 at 12:13 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, caesars, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKANTHONY KAYPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5
Eight starts, eight overs. Kay has allowed 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 6, 7, and 5 hits across his last eight outings, and his full-season average sits at exactly 5.0 hits allowed per start — comfortably clear of tonight's 4.5. The matchup does nothing to slow that trend.
St. Louis rolls out a lineup that's mostly right-handed and switch bats, and right-handed hitters have hit .287 with an .868 OPS off Kay this season, accounting for 18 of the 20 home runs he has allowed. His last three starts have gone 13.2 innings for 14 earned runs, and he hasn't finished the fifth in either of his last two turns.
He's also been the worse pitcher on the road all year — a 5.25 ERA away from home compared to 3.86 at home — and tonight he's the visitor at Busch. A 39.6 percent hard-hit rate against him says the contact keeps coming loud. I don't need a disaster start for this to land, just more of what's already happened in every start since the calendar turned to August.
- GARY'S PICKNATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
This is about as low a bar as the board sets. Combined hits, runs, and RBIs at half a run has landed for Church in 14 of his last 15 games, four of them multi-contribution nights, and his season rate on this exact number is 1.6 per game — more than triple what's needed tonight.
The one mark against him is the platoon: he's a .217 hitter with a .568 OPS against left-handers, and Kay throws left-handed. But this number isn't demanding a base hit specifically.
A run scored from the bottom of the order ahead of Fermín and Herrera, a productive out with a man on third, any one of three separate ways to get there — that's the version of Church that shows up almost every night regardless of who's on the mound. He's an everyday center fielder getting his usual look at the plate, and I like the volume of paths to a number this small.
- THE LONG SHOTJOSHUA BAEZHR OVER 0.5
Seven home runs in 84 at-bats this season, and five of those seven have come in just 35 at-bats against left-handed pitching — a 1.059 OPS split that's about as extreme as this roster offers. Kay throws left-handed, and Kay is precisely the pitcher a right-handed slugger wants to see: righties are hitting .287 with an .868 OPS against him, and 18 of the 20 homers he's allowed this season have come from that side of the plate. Baez is locked in right now too, hitting .326 with a 1.021 OPS over his last 15 games with two homers already in September. Plus-600 for a hitter with this exact a platoon lineup and a pitcher who's proven he'll give up the ball to righties is the kind of number worth a swing.
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