Phillies at Braves

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  KYLE SCHWARBERH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -167

  7:15 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Schwarber leads off and gets more trips to the plate than anyone else in this lineup, and he is doing it as the majors' home run leader. That combination makes 0.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs a number I like most nights, and he has cleared it in ten of his last fifteen games against a price that is not asking for that much more. The matchup adds to it. Schwarber is a left-handed hitter who has turned the platoon disadvantage upside down this season, .274 with a .930 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he already has five hits and two home runs in twenty-two career at-bats against Sale. He is running hot into this series, three home runs in his last week, including Wednesday's grand slam that blew the Astros game open, and he drew a leadoff walk in Thursday's loss even on a night without a hit. The hesitation is the price itself. Sale has been excellent, twenty-four strikeouts against one walk over his last three starts, and a punch-out from Schwarber's leadoff at-bat is always in play against a pitcher this sharp. But he gets four and a half plate appearances tonight against a pitcher he has already hit, in a role built for him to find one hit, one run, or one RBI, and I like the volume enough to lay the number.

  ×

  Kyle Schwarber
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -167 · 7:15 PM ET

  Philadelphia Phillies

  Read Gary’s Take

  Schwarber leads off and gets more trips to the plate than anyone else in this lineup, and he is doing it as the majors' home run leader. That combination makes 0.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs a number I like most nights, and he has cleared it in ten of his last fifteen games against a price that is not asking for that much more.

  The matchup adds to it. Schwarber is a left-handed hitter who has turned the platoon disadvantage upside down this season, .274 with a .930 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he already has five hits and two home runs in twenty-two career at-bats against Sale. He is running hot into this series, three home runs in his last week, including Wednesday's grand slam that blew the Astros game open, and he drew a leadoff walk in Thursday's loss even on a night without a hit.

  The hesitation is the price itself. Sale has been excellent, twenty-four strikeouts against one walk over his last three starts, and a punch-out from Schwarber's leadoff at-bat is always in play against a pitcher this sharp. But he gets four and a half plate appearances tonight against a pitcher he has already hit, in a role built for him to find one hit, one run, or one RBI, and I like the volume enough to lay the number.

• THE LONG SHOT

  

  MICHAEL HARRIS IIHR OVER 0.5

  MLBAtlanta Braves· +525

  7:15 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Harris has already gone deep three times in thirty-two career at-bats against Aaron Nola, and tonight he faces him again from the side of the plate that suits him best. He has sixteen home runs in three hundred thirty-nine at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, real power production against exactly the type of arm he sees tonight. Nola adds to the case. He has allowed a home run in four of his last six starts, leaning on a four-seamer and sinker that hitters are batting .328 and .336 against this year, and his hard-hit rate allowed sits above forty percent. A pitcher who has settled in over his last two outings can still be found for one mistake, and Harris has already shown he finds Nola's mistakes more than most. I will note the other side. Harris is 2-for-20 with no home runs over his last week, and tonight's forecast brings rain with a breeze in from right field, conditions that tend to work against fly-ball power more than for it. This is a bet on one swing, not a hot streak. But the plus price here is paying sixteen percent for an outcome his last fifteen games have produced at twenty percent, and a real history against tonight's starter plus a favorable platoon matchup make this the longshot I want on the board tonight.

  ×

  Michael Harris II
  HR over 0.5

  +525 · 7:15 PM ET

  Atlanta Braves

  Read Gary’s Take

  Harris has already gone deep three times in thirty-two career at-bats against Aaron Nola, and tonight he faces him again from the side of the plate that suits him best. He has sixteen home runs in three hundred thirty-nine at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, real power production against exactly the type of arm he sees tonight.

  Nola adds to the case. He has allowed a home run in four of his last six starts, leaning on a four-seamer and sinker that hitters are batting .328 and .336 against this year, and his hard-hit rate allowed sits above forty percent. A pitcher who has settled in over his last two outings can still be found for one mistake, and Harris has already shown he finds Nola's mistakes more than most.

  I will note the other side. Harris is 2-for-20 with no home runs over his last week, and tonight's forecast brings rain with a breeze in from right field, conditions that tend to work against fly-ball power more than for it. This is a bet on one swing, not a hot streak. But the plus price here is paying sixteen percent for an outcome his last fifteen games have produced at twenty percent, and a real history against tonight's starter plus a favorable platoon matchup make this the longshot I want on the board tonight.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  J.T. REALMUTOH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -138

  7:15 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  The number here is the lowest bar on the board: one hit, one run scored, or one RBI, with Realmuto getting close to four trips to the plate to find it. Over his last fifteen games he has cleared that bar eleven times. That gap over a minus-138 price is wide enough that I want to be on it even with the surrounding trend working against him. And that trend is real. He is 1-for-16 over the last week, hitting under .120 across his last fifteen days, and a career 2-for-16 against Chris Sale, who has struck out twenty-four hitters against a single walk over his last three starts. Sale has actually been harder on right-handed hitters than lefties this season, .213 with a .568 OPS, and Realmuto bats from the right side. This is a real bet working against a real cold streak. What holds me here is that the number does not need a base hit to cash. Realmuto catches every inning for a lineup that has to score to save its season, and a sacrifice fly, a fielder's choice RBI, or a run scored ahead of him all get this home the same as a single would. Eleven of fifteen over a stretch that already includes his coldest month of the year tells me the bar sits lower than his recent numbers suggest. This is a bet on volume and opportunity, not a call that Realmuto starts hitting again tonight.

  ×

  J.T. Realmuto
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -138 · 7:15 PM ET

  Philadelphia Phillies

  Read Gary’s Take

  The number here is the lowest bar on the board: one hit, one run scored, or one RBI, with Realmuto getting close to four trips to the plate to find it. Over his last fifteen games he has cleared that bar eleven times. That gap over a minus-138 price is wide enough that I want to be on it even with the surrounding trend working against him.

  And that trend is real. He is 1-for-16 over the last week, hitting under .120 across his last fifteen days, and a career 2-for-16 against Chris Sale, who has struck out twenty-four hitters against a single walk over his last three starts. Sale has actually been harder on right-handed hitters than lefties this season, .213 with a .568 OPS, and Realmuto bats from the right side. This is a real bet working against a real cold streak.

  What holds me here is that the number does not need a base hit to cash. Realmuto catches every inning for a lineup that has to score to save its season, and a sacrifice fly, a fielder's choice RBI, or a run scored ahead of him all get this home the same as a single would. Eleven of fifteen over a stretch that already includes his coldest month of the year tells me the bar sits lower than his recent numbers suggest. This is a bet on volume and opportunity, not a call that Realmuto starts hitting again tonight.