Astros at Rays

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  CHANDLER SIMPSONSINGLES OVER 0.5

  MLBTampa Bay Rays· -154

  7:10 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Simpson doesn't hit for power, he hits for contact and then runs. Zero home runs on the season against a .308 average and 41 stolen bases tells you exactly what kind of night he's built for, and tonight's matchup plays right into it. Miguel Ullola is making the first start of his career, an opener by design because Houston has never let him pitch more than two innings as a big leaguer. Once he's done, Simpson sees a rebuilt Astros bullpen that already blew a lead two nights ago in Philadelphia, with arms carrying ERAs north of five. Tropicana's turf helps a hitter like this too, a sharp grounder with some topspin gets through the infield faster than it would on grass, and Simpson's speed turns close plays into hits more often than most. He's picked up a single in 10 of his last 15 games, and a lineup of unfamiliar arms behind Ullola is exactly the kind of night that streak keeps rolling.

  ×

  Chandler Simpson
  Singles over 0.5

  -154 · 7:10 PM ET

  Tampa Bay Rays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Simpson doesn't hit for power, he hits for contact and then runs. Zero home runs on the season against a .308 average and 41 stolen bases tells you exactly what kind of night he's built for, and tonight's matchup plays right into it. Miguel Ullola is making the first start of his career, an opener by design because Houston has never let him pitch more than two innings as a big leaguer. Once he's done, Simpson sees a rebuilt Astros bullpen that already blew a lead two nights ago in Philadelphia, with arms carrying ERAs north of five.

  Tropicana's turf helps a hitter like this too, a sharp grounder with some topspin gets through the infield faster than it would on grass, and Simpson's speed turns close plays into hits more often than most. He's picked up a single in 10 of his last 15 games, and a lineup of unfamiliar arms behind Ullola is exactly the kind of night that streak keeps rolling.

• THE LONG SHOT

  

  VICTOR MESA JR.HR OVER 0.5

  MLBTampa Bay Rays· +475

  7:10 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Mesa Jr. has gone deep in back-to-back games, off López on Wednesday and off Iglesias on Thursday, and he's posted an OPS over 1.000 across his last two weeks at the plate. Eleven of his twelve home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and tonight he draws a right-hander who has never made a big league start in his life. Miguel Ullola is being used as an opener specifically because Houston doesn't trust him past a couple of innings. Tropicana Field is a pitcher's park overall, and I won't pretend the dome does a hot bat any favors on a deep fly ball. But Mesa is running as hot as anyone in this lineup right now, he sees a starter with zero track record at this level, and the price on a hitter with his current form and matchup is too good to leave alone at plus money.

  ×

  Victor Mesa Jr.
  HR over 0.5

  +475 · 7:10 PM ET

  Tampa Bay Rays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Mesa Jr. has gone deep in back-to-back games, off López on Wednesday and off Iglesias on Thursday, and he's posted an OPS over 1.000 across his last two weeks at the plate. Eleven of his twelve home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and tonight he draws a right-hander who has never made a big league start in his life. Miguel Ullola is being used as an opener specifically because Houston doesn't trust him past a couple of innings.

  Tropicana Field is a pitcher's park overall, and I won't pretend the dome does a hot bat any favors on a deep fly ball. But Mesa is running as hot as anyone in this lineup right now, he sees a starter with zero track record at this level, and the price on a hitter with his current form and matchup is too good to leave alone at plus money.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  JEREMY PENAHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBHouston Astros· -200

  7:10 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Pena has a real history against Rasmussen, four hits in eight career at-bats, and that track record matters more to me tonight than his current cold spell. He's hitting .115 over his last week and .103 in September, exactly the kind of stretch that makes people scared off a hitter prop. But this is a bet on one hit, not a return to form, and Pena still bats near the top of a lineup that gives him four-plus trips to the plate. Even walking through this slump, he's found a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. Rasmussen is not an easy out for anybody right now, he's held right-handed hitters to a .178 average this season and has been pitching his best baseball of the year the last three starts. That's the honest case against this. But Pena's own numbers against this specific pitcher buck the pattern, and Houston's lineup will see Tampa's bullpen too before the night is over if Rasmussen's pitch count climbs in a game this big. One clean single clears the bar, and I like his track record against this arm to get him there.

  ×

  Jeremy Pena
  Hits over 0.5

  -200 · 7:10 PM ET

  Houston Astros

  Read Gary’s Take

  Pena has a real history against Rasmussen, four hits in eight career at-bats, and that track record matters more to me tonight than his current cold spell. He's hitting .115 over his last week and .103 in September, exactly the kind of stretch that makes people scared off a hitter prop. But this is a bet on one hit, not a return to form, and Pena still bats near the top of a lineup that gives him four-plus trips to the plate. Even walking through this slump, he's found a hit in 10 of his last 15 games.

  Rasmussen is not an easy out for anybody right now, he's held right-handed hitters to a .178 average this season and has been pitching his best baseball of the year the last three starts. That's the honest case against this. But Pena's own numbers against this specific pitcher buck the pattern, and Houston's lineup will see Tampa's bullpen too before the night is over if Rasmussen's pitch count climbs in a game this big. One clean single clears the bar, and I like his track record against this arm to get him there.