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NCAAF · Fri, Sep 11 · 8:00 PM

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks

O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Missouri Tigers -4.5

GARY'S PICK
NCAAFvs Missouri Tigers· -110

Kansas Jayhawks
+4.5

-110 · 8:00 PM ET

Missouri Tigers

The line

DRAFTKINGS · 48 moves
MarketOpened
Wed 10:49 AM
Close
Today 8:01 PM
Move
SPREADMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -4 (-112)−1½
TOTAL50.5 (-115)51.5 (-115)+1
MONEYLINEMissouri Tigers -218Missouri Tigers -198+20
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENWed 10:49 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Wed 6:46 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Wed 10:16 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Thu 12:02 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-115)51.5 (-102)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Thu 12:32 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 2:33 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 3:33 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 4:03 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-110)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 4:33 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-110)51.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 5:03 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 5:26 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-112)51.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -230 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Thu 5:56 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 6:26 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 6:56 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 7:27 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 9:28 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Thu 9:58 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 10:28 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Thu 10:58 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -198 · Kansas Jayhawks +164
Thu 11:30 PMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Today 5:00 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 7:30 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 8:00 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 10:31 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-108)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 11:00 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 11:31 AMMissouri Tigers -5.5 (-105)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -218 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Today 12:02 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Today 12:32 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-112)51.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Today 1:02 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-112)51.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Today 4:00 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Today 4:30 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -198 · Kansas Jayhawks +164
Today 4:40 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -198 · Kansas Jayhawks +164
Today 4:50 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-110)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 5:00 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 5:10 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 5:30 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 5:41 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 6:02 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-115)51.5 (-118)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 6:12 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-112)51.5 (-118)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 6:22 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-110)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 6:32 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-115)51.5 (-118)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 6:42 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-112)51.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 7:12 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-112)51.5 (-118)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 7:22 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-110)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 7:30 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-112)51.5 (-118)Missouri Tigers -198 · Kansas Jayhawks +164
Today 7:42 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-102)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -192 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Today 7:50 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-115)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -205 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
CLOSEToday 8:01 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-112)51.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -198 · Kansas Jayhawks +164

The read

Friday night in Lawrence, FOX cameras, and the Border War back on Kansas soil for the first time since 2005. Two new starting quarterbacks, two blowouts of FCS teams in the rearview, and a ranked Missouri side walking into the loudest building it will see before SEC play. The number says Missouri by a field goal and change.

I'm taking the points, and the first reason is the price itself. The opponent-adjusted systems have this closer than the market does. SP+ rates Missouri 12.90 and Kansas 7.50, a gap of 5.4 points on a neutral field, and it calls the offenses even at 36th and 38th. FPI's gap is 6.2. This game is not on a neutral field. Kansas is at home, and a road favorite laying 4.5 here implies the market is grading Missouri above what either system supports, or crediting Lawrence with almost nothing. The line has already drifted from 5.5 at the opening book to 4.5 now, and I think the drift has further to go.

The second reason is the matchup at the line of scrimmage, where the only 2026 evidence leans the home side. Kansas's rebuilt front was stuffed on 2.0 percent of its carries in the opener and Isaiah Marshall added 49 rushing yards on seven carries to his 14-of-19, 246-yard passing debut. Missouri's pass rush was the flagged concern coming out of its opener, one sack and six tackles for loss with front-seven havoc at 0.15. A mobile quarterback behind a line that stayed on schedule, against a front that has not yet shown it can get home, is a recipe for sustained drives. Flip it around and Kansas's defense generated eleven tackles for loss and three sacks with a 36.7 percent stuff rate, and it draws a Missouri ground game that lost another back to a season-ending injury this week and got 13 carries for 47 yards from Jamal Roberts in the opener. Eli Drinkwitz said out loud that he does not feel great about that room. If Kansas makes Missouri throw to move the ball, it is Austin Simmons in his second start, on the road, against a front that has already shown teeth.

The obstacle is real and I am not hiding from it. Missouri's defense is the reason it is favored, ranked 21st in SP+ against a Kansas offense with five new linemen and a quarterback who had not played a full game in three years before last week. Simmons was 17-of-19 for 252 and four scores, and All-American tackle Cayden Green is trending back into the lineup, which makes Missouri's line better than anything its opener showed. Missouri also erased three deficits in Columbia last year and won by eleven. That is a legitimate path to a cover, and it is why this is a lean, not a pound.

But last year's game also had Kansas up 21-6 and holding a lead in the fourth quarter on the road. Tonight the venue flips, the Missouri backfield is thinner, and the number gives the home team a full field goal and a hook against a spread the ratings do not fully support. In a rivalry game between two second-start quarterbacks, I want the side with the mobile passer, the front that got into the backfield, the crowd, and the points.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Austin Simmons leads MIZ's passing this season

    13.26 Y/A

    Austin Simmons has produced 252 passing yards at 13.26 yards per attempt for Missouri in 2026, completing 89.5% with a 4-0 TD-INT line over 1 game. That opening line combines efficiency with ball security; no Kansas defensive comparison is supplied.

  • Isaiah Marshall leads KU's passing this season

    12.95 Y/A

    Isaiah Marshall has 246 passing yards at 12.95 yards per attempt for Kansas in 2026, completing 73.7% with a 2-0 TD-INT line over 1 game. That opening line shows efficiency without an interception; no Missouri defensive comparison is supplied.

TRENCHES

  • KU's front holds runners to 54 fewer yards per game

    54 YPG

    Through 2026-09-10, KU allowed 35 rushing yards per game over 1 game, 54 fewer than MIZ’s 89 over 1 game. Opponent identity and rushing approach are not supplied, limiting any schedule-adjusted comparison.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • KU's defense gives up 8 fewer points per game

    8 PPG

    MIZ is at 14 points allowed per game over 1 game; KU is at 6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.

TURNOVERS

  • KU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    Through 2026-09-10, KU recorded 1 takeaway per game over 1 game, while MIZ recorded 0 over 1 game. With no opponent or game-script context supplied, the difference cannot establish either defense’s underlying quality.

COACHING

  • MIZ gives away 25 fewer penalty yards per game

    25 YDS

    MIZ is at 35 penalty yards per game over 1 game; KU is at 60 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.

  • KU's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down

    1 GOES

    MIZ is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; KU is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.

MISMATCH

  • KU's ground game against MIZ's — 277 rush yards a game to 205

    277 VS 205

    Kansas averaged 277 rushing yards to Missouri’s 205, the matchup’s widest per-game gap, with each based on one game. The comparison favors KU’s ground production, but no Missouri run-defense split shows how that attack matches up.

COVERAGE

  • KU gets off the field on third down 7.7% more often

    7.7%

    Through 2026-09-10, KU allowed a 15.4% third-down rate over 1 game, compared with MIZ’s 23.1% over 1 game. The opponents and third-down situations are not supplied, so the 7.7-point gap remains a one-game comparison.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • MIZ lead the series with KU since 2025

    1-0 SERIES

    MIZ leads the series with KU since 2025 at 1-0, taking the only meeting 42-31 at home on Sep. 6, 2025. This matchup shifts to KU, but no facts were supplied on what has changed for either side.

REPLACEMENT

  • Malae Fonoti (RB) is out for the season for MIZ

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Missouri’s offense lost RB Malae Fonoti for the remainder of the 2026 season after he tore his ACL in the season opener, per the Associated Press on Sep. 8. The report did not identify who absorbs his work.

  • Ahmad Hardy (RB) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy remained weeks away and had not returned to practice while recovering from a gunshot wound, per the Associated Press on Sep. 8. His OUT designation affects the offense, but no replacement workload was supplied.

  • Cam Pickett (WR) is questionable for KU

    QUESTIONABLE

    Kansas WR Cam Pickett was a game-time decision with a leg injury after missing the LIU game, per ESPN/Pete Thamel on Sep. 9. His QUESTIONABLE status leaves an offensive role unresolved close to the Missouri matchup, with no replacement identified.

  • Cayden Green (OL) is probable for MIZ

    PROBABLE

    Missouri OL Cayden Green returned to practice after an undisclosed injury and was expected to play against Kansas, per On3/Pete Nakos on Sep. 9. His PROBABLE designation therefore points toward the offensive lineman being available.

SITUATIONAL

  • MIZ converts fourth downs at a +33.3% clip

    33.3%

    MIZ converted 100% of fourth downs to KU’s 66.7%, a +33.3% gap over 1 current-2026 game through 2026-09-10. Attempt totals are not supplied, so the percentages show execution in that game without establishing a dependable fourth-down identity.

  • MIZ moves the chains 4 more times per game

    4 FD

    MIZ is at 33 first downs per game over 1 game; KU is at 29 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-10.

  • No. 23 Missouri at Kansas

    #23 AP

    Missouri enters at No. 23 in the AP poll with a 1-0 record, 182 points and a two-place rise, while Kansas is unranked. That establishes the poll’s respect gap, but the supplied facts do not show whether Missouri’s ranking was earned this season or inherited.

THE SWEAT

  • THE NUMBER

    KU 0–0

    Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 -110

  • GROUND

    5 · 2

    Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 -110

  • AIR

    32 · 75

    Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 -110

AFTER GARY

  • KU +4.5 → +4.5

    GARY +0.45PP

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About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Board stored September 11, 2026 at 12:13 PM ET.
Odds record
The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: betrivers, fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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