Rockies at Tigers
O/U 5.5 · RL Tigers -1.5 · Comerica Park
The line
BETRIVERS · 24 moves| Market | Opened Today 5:00 AM | Close Today 8:10 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Tigers -1.5 (+110) | Tigers -1.5 (+175) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (-120) | 5.5 (+115) | −2½ |
| MONEYLINE | Tigers -190 | Tigers -230 | −40 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENToday 5:00 AM | Tigers -1.5 (+110) | 8 (-120) | Tigers -190 · Rockies +155 |
| Today 6:00 AM | Tigers -1.5 (+112) | 8 (-127) | Tigers -182 · Rockies +150 |
| Today 7:15 AM | Tigers -1.5 (+108) | 8.5 (-105) | Tigers -190 · Rockies +160 |
| Today 11:00 AM | Tigers -1.5 (+110) | 8 (-118) | Tigers -190 · Rockies +160 |
| Today 12:03 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+106) | 8 (-125) | Tigers -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Today 3:14 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+107) | 7.5 (-120) | Tigers -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Today 3:14 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+107) | 7.5 (-120) | Tigers -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Today 3:14 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+107) | 7.5 (-120) | Tigers -200 · Rockies +163 |
| Today 5:35 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-118) | Tigers -175 · Rockies +145 |
| Today 5:35 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-118) | Tigers -175 · Rockies +145 |
| Today 5:35 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-118) | Tigers -175 · Rockies +145 |
| Today 5:56 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-125) | Tigers -175 · Rockies +140 |
| Today 6:31 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+112) | 8 (-125) | Tigers -186 · Rockies +155 |
| Today 6:42 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+102) | 8.5 (-103) | Tigers -215 · Rockies +148 |
| Today 6:47 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-118) | Tigers -182 · Rockies +128 |
| Today 6:57 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+110) | 6.5 (-141) | Tigers -215 · Rockies +145 |
| Today 7:08 PM | Tigers -1.5 (-107) | 6.5 (-143) | Tigers -250 · Rockies +175 |
| Today 7:16 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+114) | 6.5 (-109) | Tigers -225 · Rockies +155 |
| Today 7:21 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+114) | 5.5 (-130) | Tigers -230 · Rockies +160 |
| Today 7:24 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+140) | 5.5 (-108) | Tigers -190 · Rockies +130 |
| Today 7:28 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+143) | 5.5 (-107) | Tigers -190 · Rockies +130 |
| Today 7:30 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+123) | 5.5 (+112) | Tigers -230 · Rockies +155 |
| Today 7:43 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+175) | 4.5 (-136) | Tigers -159 · Rockies +112 |
| Today 7:50 PM | Tigers +1.5 (-286) | 5.5 (+114) | Tigers -114 · Rockies -122 |
| CLOSEToday 8:10 PM | Tigers -1.5 (+175) | 5.5 (+115) | Tigers -230 · Rockies +160 |
The read
Detroit’s route to separation runs through Colorado’s bullpen. Mason Adams has worked 4.0, 5.0 and 4.2 innings in his three major-league starts, leaving substantial innings behind him. Colorado’s relievers have allowed 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings over the last five days, and Zach Agnos threw 45 pitches yesterday. Adams can pitch competitively and still leave Detroit opportunities to extend a lead.
Framber Valdez gives Detroit a stronger foundation for covering those innings. He has allowed six earned runs across his last three starts, totaling 19.0 innings, and completed seven scoreless innings last time out. Behind him, Detroit’s bullpen delivered 12.0 innings without an earned run against Minnesota before Thursday’s off day. That combination supports both building a lead and protecting it.
The matchup also suits important Detroit bats. Riley Greene owns a .855 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Kevin McGonigle sits at .853. Adams has allowed four homers in 13.2 innings and a 61.1% hard-hit rate across 36 batted balls. His sample is small, but those contact results give Detroit an opening alongside the later bullpen matchup.
The concern is separation: Comerica’s home-run suppression and the wind blowing in could help Adams, who has struck out 17 hitters, keep this close. Valdez’s 4.33 home ERA also argues against expecting another scoreless outing. I’m backing Detroit at +118 because its pitching depth and opportunities against Colorado’s relief staff give it a credible path to covering, even without an early offensive breakout.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
TJ Rumfield: 1.243 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.243TJ Rumfield has a 1.243 OPS over the last 15 days and 43 at-bats. That is 0.397 above his .846 season OPS.
COOLING OFF
Dillon Dingler: .356 OPS in Last 15 Days
.356Dillon Dingler has a .356 OPS over the last 15 days and 44 at-bats. That is a supplied 0.406 decline from his .762 season OPS.
Hunter Goodman: .507 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Framber Valdez
.507Hunter Goodman's .507 OPS over the last 15 days (47 AB) trails his .833 season mark, down 0.326. Tonight he draws LHP Framber Valdez — his stronger side: a .856 OPS vs LHP across 152 AB.
HR THREAT
Riley Greene
+475Gary's Take Greene is the home-run look I want from Detroit. He has three homers in his last seven days, carries an .855 OPS against right-handed pitching and draws Mason Adams, who has allowed four homers in only 13.2 major-league innings.
STREAK
COL have lost 4 straight
L4Colorado Rockies have dropped 4 straight, outscored by 16 runs over the skid; 3-7 across their last 10.
REGRESSION
Detroit Tigers are 14-27 in one-run games (.341 win rate)
14-27Detroit Tigers are 14-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (41 completed games). They are 53-52 in their other 105 completed games.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Adael Amador
WATCHWATCH: Do not chase Amador's 12-game line until the lineup and contact evidence become clearer Why now: Amador's observed start is loud—three home runs, 10 runs and 10 RBI in 12 games—but it covers only 41 plate appearances. His contact estimates are far lower than the results, with a .205 estimated average and .337 estimated slugging percentage versus .333 and .639 observed, while today's probable-pitcher feeds also conflict. Who it fits: Managers considering a speculative bat but able to wait for clearer playing-time and contact evidence. The risk: He has still gone 11-for-34 with two home runs and seven runs across his last 10 observed games, so waiting could miss continued short-term production. Watch next: Check the posted batting order and resolution of the conflicting Framber Valdez and Mason Adams probable-pitcher listings, then monitor the next contact sample. Evidence as of Sep 11, 02:00 PM ET.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 11, 2026 at 12:13 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKADAEL AMADORH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Amador has been one of Colorado’s most productive bats since his call-up, and he has cleared this number in 9 of his last 12. The switch-hitter has handled left-handed pitching well, while Framber Valdez has been more vulnerable to right-handed hitters than his recent scoreless start suggests. Batting sixth gives Amador multiple chances to cash this through a hit, a run or an RBI.
- THE LONG SHOTRILEY GREENEHR OVER 0.5
Greene is the home-run look I want from Detroit. He has three homers in his last seven days, carries an .855 OPS against right-handed pitching and draws Mason Adams, who has allowed four homers in only 13.2 major-league innings. Comerica suppresses cheap power, but Greene’s recent form and the matchup give this long price a real path.
- GARY'S PICKTROY JOHNSTONH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Johnston has produced a hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15, and Colorado’s lineup is likely to see traffic against Valdez before Detroit’s strong bullpen takes over. The left-handed matchup is the concern, but Johnston owns a .283 season average and bats seventh, with McCarthy, Norby and Carrigg setting the table ahead of him. I’m willing to pay the price for one contribution.
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