Rangers at Diamondbacks

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  MERRILL KELLYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -169

  9:40 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Merrill Kelly's walk problem has an address, and Texas is bringing five of them tonight. Over his last five starts, twelve of his fourteen walks have gone to left-handed hitters — a pattern that shows up as a two-walk game, a four-walk game, and another four-walk game whenever the lineup across from him skews left. Texas puts five lefty bats in the order: Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, and Lopez. That is exactly the shape that has been getting to him. He is also working at Chase Field, where his own numbers are worse than they are on the road — a 6.10 ERA at home against 4.36 away — and he is coming off six days of rest, longer than his usual turn between starts. His season rate of 2.5 walks per start already clears this number on its own, and he has gone over it in six of his last eight outings. Stack a lefty-heavy lineup on top of a pitcher who already nibbles against left-handed hitters, and I do not need a bad Kelly start tonight, just a normal one.

  ×

  Merrill Kelly
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  -169 · 9:40 PM ET

  Arizona Diamondbacks

  Read Gary’s Take

  Merrill Kelly's walk problem has an address, and Texas is bringing five of them tonight. Over his last five starts, twelve of his fourteen walks have gone to left-handed hitters — a pattern that shows up as a two-walk game, a four-walk game, and another four-walk game whenever the lineup across from him skews left. Texas puts five lefty bats in the order: Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, and Lopez. That is exactly the shape that has been getting to him.

  He is also working at Chase Field, where his own numbers are worse than they are on the road — a 6.10 ERA at home against 4.36 away — and he is coming off six days of rest, longer than his usual turn between starts. His season rate of 2.5 walks per start already clears this number on its own, and he has gone over it in six of his last eight outings. Stack a lefty-heavy lineup on top of a pitcher who already nibbles against left-handed hitters, and I do not need a bad Kelly start tonight, just a normal one.

• GARY'S PICK

  

  EVAN CARTERWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· -190

  9:40 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Evan Carter is not walking his way on tonight, not with the way he is swinging the bat right now. He is hitting .195 with a strikeout in nearly three of every ten at-bats this season, the look of a hitter trying to swing his way out of a slump rather than working counts. Over his last fifteen games he has drawn exactly three walks. Over his last three games, one walk in eleven plate appearances. He sits sixth tonight against a right-hander, a lineup spot without the kind of protection that forces a pitcher to be careful, and a .293 on-base mark that reflects a hitter more likely to put a bad pitch in play than take it for a ball. Nothing about tonight's matchup gives him a reason to change that approach.

  ×

  Evan Carter
  Walks under 0.5

  -190 · 9:40 PM ET

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Evan Carter is not walking his way on tonight, not with the way he is swinging the bat right now. He is hitting .195 with a strikeout in nearly three of every ten at-bats this season, the look of a hitter trying to swing his way out of a slump rather than working counts. Over his last fifteen games he has drawn exactly three walks. Over his last three games, one walk in eleven plate appearances.

  He sits sixth tonight against a right-hander, a lineup spot without the kind of protection that forces a pitcher to be careful, and a .293 on-base mark that reflects a hitter more likely to put a bad pitch in play than take it for a ball. Nothing about tonight's matchup gives him a reason to change that approach.

• THE LONG SHOT

  

  JOC PEDERSONHR OVER 0.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· +420

  9:40 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  Joc Pederson does not hit right-handers, he hunts them. Twenty-five of his twenty-six home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and he is running hot again in September at a 1.020 OPS with two homers in his last fifteen at-bats. He is also 8-for-28 against Merrill Kelly for his career, a real sample against this specific arm. Kelly is the other half of the case. He has allowed twenty-seven home runs in twenty-six starts this season, and left-handed hitters own an .864 OPS with eighteen homers against him. He has even been worse at his own ballpark than on the road, a 6.10 ERA at Chase Field against 4.36 away, so home cooking has not been protecting him either. A red-hot left-handed leadoff hitter with real history against this pitcher, in a park that already plays hitter-friendly, makes one home run at plus-money a price I want.

  ×

  Joc Pederson
  HR over 0.5

  +420 · 9:40 PM ET

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Joc Pederson does not hit right-handers, he hunts them. Twenty-five of his twenty-six home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and he is running hot again in September at a 1.020 OPS with two homers in his last fifteen at-bats. He is also 8-for-28 against Merrill Kelly for his career, a real sample against this specific arm.

  Kelly is the other half of the case. He has allowed twenty-seven home runs in twenty-six starts this season, and left-handed hitters own an .864 OPS with eighteen homers against him. He has even been worse at his own ballpark than on the road, a 6.10 ERA at Chase Field against 4.36 away, so home cooking has not been protecting him either. A red-hot left-handed leadoff hitter with real history against this pitcher, in a park that already plays hitter-friendly, makes one home run at plus-money a price I want.