Rays at Braves
O/U 4.5 · RL Braves -1.5 · Truist Park
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 9 moves| Market | Opened Thu 5:00 AM | Close Thu 2:40 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Braves -1.5 (+168) | Braves -1.5 (-780) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-103) | 4.5 (+442) | −4 |
| MONEYLINE | Braves -123 | Braves -3700 | −3577 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENThu 5:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+168) | 8.5 (-103) | Braves -123 · Rays +102 |
| Thu 6:00 AM | Braves +1.5 (-204) | 8.5 (-103) | Braves -120 · Rays -101 |
| Thu 6:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+168) | 8.5 (-103) | Braves -120 · Rays -101 |
| Thu 7:15 AM | Braves +1.5 (-203) | 8.5 (-103) | Braves -120 · Rays -101 |
| Thu 8:00 AM | Braves +1.5 (-204) | 8.5 (-103) | Braves -120 · Rays -101 |
| Thu 9:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+168) | 8.5 (-105) | Braves -120 · Rays -101 |
| Thu 9:51 AM | Braves -1.5 (+168) | 8.5 (-105) | Braves -120 · Rays +100 |
| Thu 10:03 AM | Braves -1.5 (+168) | 8.5 (-104) | Braves -120 · Rays +100 |
| Thu 10:21 AM | Braves -1.5 (+168) | 8.5 (-102) | Braves -127 · Rays +105 |
| CLOSEThu 2:40 PM | Braves -1.5 (-780) | 4.5 (+442) | Braves -3700 · Rays +1000 |
The read
Martinez’s command is the deciding factor for me. He has walked 24 batters in 160.0 innings this season; Pérez has walked 54 in 124.2. Martinez’s last three starts produced 12 strikeouts against two walks, and he completed at least six innings in each. Against an Atlanta offense that has scored three runs across its last three games, that ability to avoid handing over baserunners gives Tampa Bay a credible starting advantage.
Díaz, Vilade and Caminero give the Rays a productive top of the order against left-handed pitching, with respective OPS marks of .871, .839 and .954. Pérez’s recent control creates an opening for that group: he has issued nine walks across his last three starts. Tampa Bay needs to capitalize there because today’s lineup is different from the group responsible for much of the series damage.
That lineup change keeps my confidence modest. Hicks, Aranda, Mesa and Palacios are on the bench, and Pérez has held right-handed hitters to a .655 OPS. Atlanta also has rested late-inning options. There is a legitimate path for the Braves to keep this close.
But Tampa Bay’s principal relief options have room to work, too. Wells last pitched September 5; Baker and Kelly last pitched September 8. Martinez’s recent innings give the Rays a plausible bridge to those arms. At -102, I’m backing his command and Tampa Bay’s strongest bats against Pérez, with the lineup changes keeping this a measured play.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Dominic Smith (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
.729Dominic Smith has a .729 OPS in 229 AB vs. RHP, compared with .451 in 31 AB vs. LHP. The left-handed hitter bats sixth tonight against RHP Nick Martinez.
Drake Baldwin (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
.860Drake Baldwin leads off tonight against Tampa Bay RHP Nick Martinez. Baldwin has an .860 OPS in 300 AB vs. RHP, well above his .695 OPS in 182 AB vs. LHP.
HEAT CHECK
Sean Murphy: 1.118 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.118Sean Murphy has a 1.118 OPS over the last 15 days in 29 at-bats. That is 0.465 above his .653 season mark.
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.049 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.049Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 1.049 OPS over the last 15 days in 50 at-bats. That is 0.26 above his .789 season mark.
Ha-Seong Kim: .599 OPS in Last 15 Days
.599Ha-Seong Kim has a .599 OPS over the last 15 days in 24 AB. That represents a 0.281 increase from his .318 season OPS.
COOLING OFF
Matt Olson: .483 OPS in Last 15 Days
.483Matt Olson has a .483 OPS over the last 15 days in 54 at-bats. That is 0.346 below his .829 season mark.
Jonny DeLuca: .496 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Martin Perez
.496Jonny DeLuca has a .496 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 AB, down 0.209 from his .705 season mark. He draws LHP Martin Perez and has a .671 OPS vs. LHP across 123 AB.
HR THREAT
Drake Baldwin
+500Gary's Take Baldwin has already homered in this series and owns a .860 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Martinez has allowed seven home runs to right-handed hitters, and Baldwin is batting first, giving him a strong opportunity count.
RUNNING GAME
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 14%
14% CSTampa Bay attempts 1.4 steals per game, while Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin has thrown out 7 of 51 runners for a 14% caught-stealing rate this season. The figures describe the matchup but do not establish how tonight’s runs will score.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Rays are 2-0 vs Braves this season
2-0Tampa Bay is 2-0 against Atlanta across two meetings this season, most recently winning 7-2. With no pitching or venue breakdown, those two results offer little context for tonight.
REPLACEMENT
Jonny DeLuca (.671 vs LHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
.705Jonny DeLuca draws LHP Martin Perez from the 4th spot. He carries a .671 OPS vs LHP (123 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .705 season line. On the injury report for 15 days (Groin).
TEAM RECORD
Rays 6-2 in Nick Martinez's last 8 starts
6-2Tampa Bay is 6-2 in Nick Martinez’s last eight starts this season, with team wins in the last three. Martinez starts tonight at Atlanta.
REGRESSION
Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .259 xBA
.259Chandler Simpson is batting .309 against a .259 xBA over 557 plate appearances, with a .308 wOBA versus a .263 xwOBA. His results have run ahead of his contact quality entering TB @ ATL, but no matchup-specific comparison shows whether that gap will narrow tonight.
Jonny DeLuca: .258 AVG vs .234 xBA
.234Jonny DeLuca is batting .258 against a .234 xBA over 316 plate appearances, while his .307 wOBA tops his .265 xwOBA. Both expected marks trail his results entering TB @ ATL, but no matchup-specific comparison establishes which way the gap will move tonight.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKMARTIN PEREZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
Pérez has gone over this number in six of his last eight starts, and he has issued nine walks across his last three outings. Tampa Bay’s lineup is right-handed heavy today, with seven right-handed hitters scheduled, and that group can force Pérez to work through traffic. At plus money, I’m backing another two-walk performance.
- GARY'S PICKBREWER HICKLENH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Hicklen has produced at least two combined hits, runs or RBIs in five of his last 12 games and is hitting .364 with a .500 on-base percentage in his limited season sample. He gets a favorable lineup spot against Nick Martinez, whose recent home results have been uneven. The sample is small, but plus money makes the production threshold playable.
- THE LONG SHOTDRAKE BALDWINHR OVER 0.5
Baldwin has already homered in this series and owns a .860 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Martinez has allowed seven home runs to right-handed hitters, and Baldwin is batting first, giving him a strong opportunity count. This is a long shot, but the matchup and price are enough for one swing.
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