Yankees at Padres
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Petco Park
The line
FANATICS · 14 moves| Market | Opened Sep 4 5:00 AM | Close Sep 4 7:59 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -125 | Yankees -115 | +10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 4 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | — | Yankees -125 · Padres +105 |
| Sep 4 6:35 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+130) | — | Yankees -125 · Padres +105 |
| Sep 4 7:44 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | — | Yankees -125 · Padres +105 |
| Sep 4 8:32 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+130) | — | Yankees -130 · Padres +110 |
| Sep 4 11:10 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+145) | — | Yankees -120 · Padres +100 |
| Sep 4 11:28 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | — | Yankees -120 · Padres +100 |
| Sep 4 3:41 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 4:14 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+145) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 5:17 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 5:29 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+145) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 6:16 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 7:49 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+145) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 7:59 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| Sep 4 7:59 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
| CLOSESep 4 7:59 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Yankees -115 · Padres -105 |
The read
Rice and García give New York the matchup I want at this price. They carry respective OPS figures of .917 and .908 against right-handed pitching, and Buehler has allowed a .762 OPS to left-handed hitters. New York’s lineup brings eight left-handed bats. That alignment matters most through Rice and García; I expect them to provide the offensive advantage, rather than assuming every left-handed hitter benefits equally.
The planned Fried–Warren pairing supports the other half of the bet. San Diego starts seven right-handed hitters, but Fried has held righties to a .574 OPS. His expected abbreviated outing limits that advantage, while Warren provides a planned bridge behind him. Warren allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings in his latest start, although his 4.62 ERA over his last five starts keeps me from treating that performance as his guaranteed level. Blackburn, Headrick and Bednar are available behind the tandem.
San Diego’s strongest answer is Buehler’s improvement and its available late-inning pitching. His August ERA was 3.16, and Miller, Morejon, Matsui and Rodriguez are available after Thursday’s off-day. That gives the Padres a credible route to containing New York throughout the game. Buehler’s latest 3% whiff rate raises a relevant question against this lineup, but one outing does not establish that his improvement has disappeared. Those competing facts make this a modest edge.
My judgment is that New York’s leading bats generate enough offense against Buehler to justify -116, while the tandem supplies effective innings before the late relievers take over. The assumption is that Warren performs adequately in the follow role and the planned arrangement goes ahead. The unresolved detail most capable of changing this decision is the tandem’s actual workload allowance: a tighter restriction that substantially reduces its expected coverage would make me reassess the price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
BATTER VS ARM
Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Max Fried: .500
.500Tatis owns a .500 career average against Fried and comes into the matchup swinging well. That combination makes him one of the strongest hitter looks on the board.
HEAT CHECK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 1.063 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.063Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s 1.063 OPS fits his established power profile, so I buy the surge more than I question it. San Diego is a tougher setting, but over 0.5 total bases only asks his hot bat for one hit.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of NYY @ SD
NRFII’m leaning NRFI at Petco. Both lineups may need to string together quality contact, so Under 0.5 in the first has the better setup.
BALLPARK
At Petco Park, Walker Buehler pitches to a 4.15 ERA
4.15Petco gives Buehler a friendlier environment, but a 4.15 home ERA is hardly shutdown work. New York still has a path to apply pressure once the lineup turns over.
STREAK
NYY games have gone OVER 5 straight
O5Five straight Yankees games have gone over, with the scoring comfortably beating expectations. San Diego gets a similarly low threshold tonight, so the streak remains actionable.
REGRESSION
Samad Taylor: .333 AVG vs .275 xBA
.275Samad Taylor’s .333 average has outrun a .275 expected mark, pointing toward cooling production. I favor a quieter night in San Diego, particularly on any offensive over.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 4, 2026 at 11:23 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, fanatics, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKMAX FRIEDK'S OVER 3.5
I’m backing Fried to reach four strikeouts even with his workload restricted. He has cleared this line in seven of his last eight starts, including four strikeouts on only 63 pitches in his return from the injured list.
San Diego’s confirmed lineup carries swing-and-miss from top to bottom, and Fried can finish hitters with a cutter and curveball that each produce a whiff rate above 36%. Seven Padres bat right-handed, but Fried has held righties to a .574 OPS. The abbreviated assignment makes the price uncomfortable, but the low line gives him a realistic path in four innings.
- THE LONG SHOTLUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5
Garcia is my long-shot swing. He has 25 home runs against right-handed pitching and a .908 OPS in that split, and he enters with four homers in his last 15 games. Batting third gives him the best combination of plate appearances and RBI traffic among the available prices.
Buehler has been vulnerable when his four-seamer or changeup catches too much of the plate, with those pitches carrying respective xwOBA marks of .387 and .403. Petco suppresses power, so this needs a clean barrel, but Garcia’s production against righties makes +550 worth taking.
- GARY'S PICKGEORGE LOMBARD JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5
One hit, run or RBI gets this home, and Lombard has produced at least one in 11 of his last 15 games. Batting seventh should still give him three or four opportunities against Buehler and a bullpen that allowed five earned runs in the Cincinnati series.
Buehler generated only a 3% whiff rate in his latest start, while his four-seamer has allowed a .387 xwOBA and a .354 batting average this season. Lombard is the lone right-handed bat in New York’s lineup, but I’m betting on contact and multiple paths to the result rather than a platoon advantage.
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