Rays at Yankees

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  GERRIT COLEPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5

  MLBNew York Yankees· -104

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 17

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm taking Cole over 16.5 outs at -104, so I need him to get 17 outs, or 5.2 innings. At this price that only has to happen about 51% of the time. He has gone over this number in 6 of his last 8 starts (18, 13, 21, 16, 18, 18, 18, 21, newest first) and averages 17.3 outs across 21 starts. One of the two misses was 16 outs, a single out short. The only start that really fell apart was the Mets game. He gets there by staying efficient, and he hasn't needed a big pitch count to do it. He threw 90 pitches for 18 outs at Arizona and 84 pitches for 21 outs at San Diego. He has walked 5 hitters in his last 8 starts and none in 4 of them, so he isn't wasting pitches on free passes. The lineup in front of him helps too. Tampa Bay sat Yandy Diaz, Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson and Nick Fortes the day after clinching. The bottom three tonight are Ryan Vilade (.699 OPS against righties), Cedric Mullins (.202) and Jorge Mateo (.100 in September). Junior Caminero and Jonny DeLuca are a combined 0-for-10 against him in their careers. It's a small sample, but it doesn't hurt. The bullpen also pushes Boone to let him work. David Bednar, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber and Michael Fulmer all pitched Tuesday. Yarbrough has never worked the day after a 25-pitch outing this year, and he threw 23 yesterday. Clarke Schmidt was pulled from warmups Sunday with biceps cramping. Boone has every reason to let Cole cover the middle innings. The biggest risk is that this is a tune-up. Boone has said Cole should expect a Wild Card start on normal rest, and he hasn't gone past 93 pitches in any of his last 8 starts. A short, planned outing is possible. The home run problem is also real: 9 homers allowed over his last 28.2 innings, a 3.93 ERA in the Bronx and a 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed. A crooked number in the fourth could end his night early, the way it did against the Mets. At a price this close to even, I'll back his length.

  ×

  Gerrit Cole
  Pitcher Outs over 16.5

  -104 · CASHED · ACTUAL 17

  New York Yankees

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm taking Cole over 16.5 outs at -104, so I need him to get 17 outs, or 5.2 innings. At this price that only has to happen about 51% of the time. He has gone over this number in 6 of his last 8 starts (18, 13, 21, 16, 18, 18, 18, 21, newest first) and averages 17.3 outs across 21 starts. One of the two misses was 16 outs, a single out short. The only start that really fell apart was the Mets game.

  He gets there by staying efficient, and he hasn't needed a big pitch count to do it. He threw 90 pitches for 18 outs at Arizona and 84 pitches for 21 outs at San Diego. He has walked 5 hitters in his last 8 starts and none in 4 of them, so he isn't wasting pitches on free passes. The lineup in front of him helps too. Tampa Bay sat Yandy Diaz, Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson and Nick Fortes the day after clinching. The bottom three tonight are Ryan Vilade (.699 OPS against righties), Cedric Mullins (.202) and Jorge Mateo (.100 in September). Junior Caminero and Jonny DeLuca are a combined 0-for-10 against him in their careers. It's a small sample, but it doesn't hurt.

  The bullpen also pushes Boone to let him work. David Bednar, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber and Michael Fulmer all pitched Tuesday. Yarbrough has never worked the day after a 25-pitch outing this year, and he threw 23 yesterday. Clarke Schmidt was pulled from warmups Sunday with biceps cramping. Boone has every reason to let Cole cover the middle innings.

  The biggest risk is that this is a tune-up. Boone has said Cole should expect a Wild Card start on normal rest, and he hasn't gone past 93 pitches in any of his last 8 starts. A short, planned outing is possible. The home run problem is also real: 9 homers allowed over his last 28.2 innings, a 3.93 ERA in the Bronx and a 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed. A crooked number in the fourth could end his night early, the way it did against the Mets. At a price this close to even, I'll back his length.

• GARY'S PICK

  JAZZ CHISHOLM JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

  MLBNew York Yankees· -137

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is Chisholm over 0.5 total bases at -137. I need one hit of any kind, and the price asks for about 58%. He bats sixth and averages 3.9 trips to the plate a game. He has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games and averages 1.4 total bases over 134 games. Against right-handers he hits .237 with a .742 OPS and 14 of his 19 homers. With three or four at-bats at that average, one hit lands a little more often than the price implies. The matchup is Mason Englert. He hasn't pitched in a big-league game since July 17 and was called up this morning for a spot start. Left-handed hitters have a .267 average and .820 OPS against him this season, with 4 homers in 60 at-bats. That line is Englert's record against lefties as a group, not anything specific to Chisholm. His 14.7% barrel rate allowed is high for a starter, and he gave up 5 home runs over 10.2 innings in his last two MLB starts. Two of those came from a left-handed hitter, Wilyer Abreu, both to right-center. The short 314-foot porch in right plays to Chisholm's pull side. The 15 mph wind blows in from left, so it does less to the right side. And he looked fine in his first game back Tuesday: a single, a walk and four trips to the plate. The case against is his contact rate. He has 154 strikeouts in 464 at-bats this year, and his .233 average leaves little margin on a single-hit ticket. He is 0-for-3 in his career against Englert. That's too small a sample to settle anything, and it's still not in my favor. Englert's changeup is a real pitch, with a .251 xwOBA allowed and a 56.9% chase rate. The late innings are a concern too. Tampa Bay's fresher arms include Steven Matz, and if Chisholm sees a lefty late, his .654 OPS against left-handers comes into play. He is also only one game back from the injured list, so his timing is unproven. I'm taking it because the starter matchup and the park give him enough edge over three trips against Englert to justify -137.

  ×

  Jazz Chisholm Jr.
  Total Bases over 0.5

  -137 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  New York Yankees

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is Chisholm over 0.5 total bases at -137. I need one hit of any kind, and the price asks for about 58%. He bats sixth and averages 3.9 trips to the plate a game. He has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games and averages 1.4 total bases over 134 games. Against right-handers he hits .237 with a .742 OPS and 14 of his 19 homers. With three or four at-bats at that average, one hit lands a little more often than the price implies.

  The matchup is Mason Englert. He hasn't pitched in a big-league game since July 17 and was called up this morning for a spot start. Left-handed hitters have a .267 average and .820 OPS against him this season, with 4 homers in 60 at-bats. That line is Englert's record against lefties as a group, not anything specific to Chisholm. His 14.7% barrel rate allowed is high for a starter, and he gave up 5 home runs over 10.2 innings in his last two MLB starts. Two of those came from a left-handed hitter, Wilyer Abreu, both to right-center. The short 314-foot porch in right plays to Chisholm's pull side. The 15 mph wind blows in from left, so it does less to the right side. And he looked fine in his first game back Tuesday: a single, a walk and four trips to the plate.

  The case against is his contact rate. He has 154 strikeouts in 464 at-bats this year, and his .233 average leaves little margin on a single-hit ticket. He is 0-for-3 in his career against Englert. That's too small a sample to settle anything, and it's still not in my favor. Englert's changeup is a real pitch, with a .251 xwOBA allowed and a 56.9% chase rate. The late innings are a concern too. Tampa Bay's fresher arms include Steven Matz, and if Chisholm sees a lefty late, his .654 OPS against left-handers comes into play. He is also only one game back from the injured list, so his timing is unproven. I'm taking it because the starter matchup and the park give him enough edge over three trips against Englert to justify -137.

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