Sports Picks Archive — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -126

Game 1 of a Camden Yards doubleheader with both seasons on the line, per Sportsnet's report that a loss eliminates either club. It's Max Scherzer against old friend Chris Bassitt: 1:35 first pitch, 62 degrees, wind blowing in from center. My pick rests on who has to cover the innings after the starters. Bassitt averages 5.7 innings per start and has thrown 88 to 99 pitches every time out since mid-August. Scherzer averages 4.5 innings and has come out at 73 to 83 pitches in his last three starts. That leaves roughly 12 outs for a Toronto bullpen that has been leaning on the same arms. Tyler Rogers pitched Sep 19, 20 and 21, and Louis Varland was reported unavailable for four outs on Monday, with no reason given. John Schneider also has no Game 2 starter, with Dylan Cease out. On Baltimore's side, Andrew Kittredge, Anthony Nunez, Josh Walker and Luis De Leon haven't pitched since Sep 18. The second reason is the lineups. Toronto plays without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (back) and Brett Bateman (hip), both new absences, and Alejandro Kirk is on the bench. Bassitt has held this club to one run over six innings in May and two runs over five-plus innings on Sep 11. For Baltimore, Pete Alonso has 40 homers and 108 RBI, including two home runs Monday. He carries a .919 OPS against right-handers and a .482 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs, the pitch Scherzer throws 47% of the time. This same lineup tagged Scherzer for six earned runs on Sep 11. The best argument against me is that Scherzer is better than his 6.07 ERA. His 4.35 xERA beats Bassitt's 4.95. A cool day with the wind blowing in also takes some bite out of his biggest problem as a fly-ball pitcher, the home run. But I read that gap as a pricing question, not a verdict. At -126, the market is not pricing Scherzer's 6.07 ERA at face value; it already treats the starters as close, so I'm not overpaying for a fragile number. Varland, with a 1.29 ERA, is Toronto's real trump card. But his status is unknown, and getting to him means covering four innings first on a doubleheader day. Baltimore has holes too. Samuel Basallo is out after a foul ball off his mask, and Coby Mayo bats cleanup with a .571 OPS against right-handers. Still, I'm taking the starter who goes deeper, the bullpen with more arms that haven't pitched since Sep 18, and the best bat on the field against a thinned Toronto lineup. Orioles on the moneyline.

The second reason is the lineups. Toronto plays without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (back) and Brett Bateman (hip), both new absences, and Alejandro Kirk is on the bench. Bassitt has held this club to one run over six innings in May and two runs over five-plus innings on Sep 11. For Baltimore, Pete Alonso has 40 homers and 108 RBI, including two home runs Monday. He carries a .919 OPS against right-handers and a .482 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs, the pitch Scherzer throws 47% of the time. This same lineup tagged Scherzer for six earned runs on Sep 11.

The best argument against me is that Scherzer is better than his 6.07 ERA. His 4.35 xERA beats Bassitt's 4.95. A cool day with the wind blowing in also takes some bite out of his biggest problem as a fly-ball pitcher, the home run. But I read that gap as a pricing question, not a verdict. At -126, the market is not pricing Scherzer's 6.07 ERA at face value; it already treats the starters as close, so I'm not overpaying for a fragile number. Varland, with a 1.29 ERA, is Toronto's real trump card. But his status is unknown, and getting to him means covering four innings first on a doubleheader day. Baltimore has holes too. Samuel Basallo is out after a foul ball off his mask, and Coby Mayo bats cleanup with a .571 OPS against right-handers. Still, I'm taking the starter who goes deeper, the bullpen with more arms that haven't pitched since Sep 18, and the best bat on the field against a thinned Toronto lineup. Orioles on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· +134

The Tigers and Nationals settle a 1-1 series at Comerica on a cool Wednesday afternoon, with the wind blowing in from left field. Detroit hands the ball to Framber Valdez. Washington opens with lefty Richard Lovelady and will likely turn to someone else early. The price assumes Detroit has a clear edge on the mound, and I'm not sure it does. Lovelady is an opener. None of his outings since June has gone past 23 pitches, so the real question is who follows him. Cade Cavalli last started Sep 18, and today is his normal turn in the rotation. Over his last five starts he has 38 strikeouts, 6 walks and a 2.00 ERA in 27 innings. Nothing official confirms he pitches today, and that is the risk I'm taking. But the rotation order points to him. If he covers the middle innings, the pitching is roughly even, and the Detroit price is paying for an edge that isn't there. Detroit's lineup today is thin. Torres and Valencia sit. Peck (.169/.286/.186) and McKinstry (.202/.286/.297) bat eighth and ninth. Detroit scored exactly 1 run in all five of its losses over the last 10 games, including yesterday against this staff, when it had 7 hits and 4 walks and still scored once. Add a 0.95 park factor, 62 degrees, wind blowing in and a 7.5 total, and this looks like a low-scoring game where one swing can decide it. That favors the underdog. Washington also has the better season offense, at 5.1 runs per game to Detroit's 4.5. The strongest case against me is Detroit's bullpen. Over the last two weeks Detroit's relievers have a 2.72 ERA to Washington's 4.44. Jansen, Waguespack and Holton have rest, while Washington's closer Tolman has pitched 3 of the last 4 days. If Cavalli doesn't pitch, Washington could end up leaning on Perales and his 11.45 ERA. Abrams also has only a .703 OPS against lefties. I'm taking Washington anyway because +134 only has to win about 42.7% of the time. Against a Valdez-led staff and a lineup that has gone quiet this often, a well-rested Cavalli behind the opener gets Washington past that. Wood also has a .429 xwOBA against sinkers over 103 plate appearances, and Valdez throws his sinker 44.5% of the time. I'm betting on the price, not on Washington being the better team.

The price assumes Detroit has a clear edge on the mound, and I'm not sure it does. Lovelady is an opener. None of his outings since June has gone past 23 pitches, so the real question is who follows him. Cade Cavalli last started Sep 18, and today is his normal turn in the rotation. Over his last five starts he has 38 strikeouts, 6 walks and a 2.00 ERA in 27 innings. Nothing official confirms he pitches today, and that is the risk I'm taking. But the rotation order points to him. If he covers the middle innings, the pitching is roughly even, and the Detroit price is paying for an edge that isn't there.

Detroit's lineup today is thin. Torres and Valencia sit. Peck (.169/.286/.186) and McKinstry (.202/.286/.297) bat eighth and ninth. Detroit scored exactly 1 run in all five of its losses over the last 10 games, including yesterday against this staff, when it had 7 hits and 4 walks and still scored once. Add a 0.95 park factor, 62 degrees, wind blowing in and a 7.5 total, and this looks like a low-scoring game where one swing can decide it. That favors the underdog. Washington also has the better season offense, at 5.1 runs per game to Detroit's 4.5.

The strongest case against me is Detroit's bullpen. Over the last two weeks Detroit's relievers have a 2.72 ERA to Washington's 4.44. Jansen, Waguespack and Holton have rest, while Washington's closer Tolman has pitched 3 of the last 4 days. If Cavalli doesn't pitch, Washington could end up leaning on Perales and his 11.45 ERA. Abrams also has only a .703 OPS against lefties. I'm taking Washington anyway because +134 only has to win about 42.7% of the time. Against a Valdez-led staff and a lineup that has gone quiet this often, a well-rested Cavalli behind the opener gets Washington past that. Wood also has a .429 xwOBA against sinkers over 103 plate appearances, and Valdez throws his sinker 44.5% of the time. I'm betting on the price, not on Washington being the better team.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -154

Rubber game by the Bay: two eliminated clubs split the first two games at Oracle Park, and it comes down to a pair of lefties on a calm 68-degree afternoon. My bet rests on which starter lasts longer and who has to pitch after him. Connor Prielipp strikes out 9.3 batters per nine innings, and his curveball has allowed a .168 xwOBA with a 36.4% whiff rate. Over their last three games, the Giants have missed on 31.0% of their swings. Cesar Perdomo gets few strikeouts and is getting hit hard: 5.6 per nine, 46.9% hard-hit contact allowed, and a four-seamer he throws 46.3% of the time that has allowed a .435 xwOBA. His ERA is 3.72 and his xERA is 4.92, so anyone backing San Francisco because of that ERA is paying for a fragile number. How deep each starter goes is what decides it for me. Perdomo's three MLB starts ended at 83, 74 and 83 pitches, and the last two lasted 4.2 innings each. If he does that again, the Giants' bullpen has to get about 13 outs. A Sep 17 report ranked that bullpen second-worst in MLB in strikeout-minus-walk rate, at 9.8%, and nearly all of it throws right-handed. Minnesota benched Walker Jenkins, Kody Clemens and Alan Roden against the lefty starter, so all three left-handed bats are available to pinch-hit late. Both Twins homers off Giants relievers this series came from left-handed hitters: Emmanuel Rodriguez off Jason Foley and Jenkins off Duncan Davitt. Prielipp went 7.0 innings on 92 pitches last time out. His one clear weakness is left-handed hitters (.808 OPS), and the Giants' lefty starters are Turner Hill, Marcelo Mayer and Bo Davidson, who is playing his third MLB game. The best argument against this is Minnesota's own bullpen. Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Andrew Morris and Kody Funderburk all pitched last night, and there is no report on whether any of them is available today. If Derek Shelton holds them back, the late innings could go to Yoendrys Gómez, who has a 9.82 ERA over the last 30 days. The Giants do have Trent Harris, who has allowed no earned runs in 14.0 innings over that same stretch. That bullpen risk is why I'm taking the moneyline instead of laying 1.5 runs. I still land on Minnesota. The gap between the starters is the most reliable edge in this game, and Perdomo's short outings push more innings onto the weaker bullpen. I'll pay -154.

How deep each starter goes is what decides it for me. Perdomo's three MLB starts ended at 83, 74 and 83 pitches, and the last two lasted 4.2 innings each. If he does that again, the Giants' bullpen has to get about 13 outs. A Sep 17 report ranked that bullpen second-worst in MLB in strikeout-minus-walk rate, at 9.8%, and nearly all of it throws right-handed. Minnesota benched Walker Jenkins, Kody Clemens and Alan Roden against the lefty starter, so all three left-handed bats are available to pinch-hit late. Both Twins homers off Giants relievers this series came from left-handed hitters: Emmanuel Rodriguez off Jason Foley and Jenkins off Duncan Davitt. Prielipp went 7.0 innings on 92 pitches last time out. His one clear weakness is left-handed hitters (.808 OPS), and the Giants' lefty starters are Turner Hill, Marcelo Mayer and Bo Davidson, who is playing his third MLB game.

The best argument against this is Minnesota's own bullpen. Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Andrew Morris and Kody Funderburk all pitched last night, and there is no report on whether any of them is available today. If Derek Shelton holds them back, the late innings could go to Yoendrys Gómez, who has a 9.82 ERA over the last 30 days. The Giants do have Trent Harris, who has allowed no earned runs in 14.0 innings over that same stretch. That bullpen risk is why I'm taking the moneyline instead of laying 1.5 runs. I still land on Minnesota. The gap between the starters is the most reliable edge in this game, and Perdomo's short outings push more innings onto the weaker bullpen. I'll pay -154.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -114

Chris Sale takes the Truist Park mound for his last regular-season start before October. The Reds, who shut Atlanta out last night, hand the ball to Andrew Abbott with a chance to win the series. I'll say it up front: I've bled red my whole life, and this isn't the card my heart wanted to write. The pick comes down to who pitches the middle innings. Sale has a 2.12 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.66 ERA at home. Abbott has a 9.15 ERA and 6 homers allowed in 19.2 innings over his last five, at 3.9 innings per start, and he walked 5 on 98 pitches last time out. That leaves a lot of outs for a Reds bullpen whose top three arms, Burke, Antone and Pagán, all pitched last night. Nobody has reported whether they're available tonight. After them, Pierce Johnson (6.48), Graham Ashcraft (10.13) and Luis Mey (9.75) have ugly 30-day ERAs. Atlanta's bullpen is in much better shape. Only Fuentes pitched last night, and closer Raisel Iglesias has had three full days off with a 0.90 ERA over the last 30 days. Sale's 2.18 ERA is well below his 3.06 xERA, so the market is paying a little for a fragile number. But Abbott's 5.02 xERA is worse than his 4.70 ERA, and even on expected stats these two starters are about two runs apart. The price is rich, not wrong. The case against Atlanta is real. Ronald Acuña Jr. fouled a ball off his left shin last night and isn't in the lineup. Ozzie Albies is 5-for-39 and Austin Riley is 7-for-36 over the last 10 games, and the bottom of the order includes Sean Murphy at .173 and Ha-Seong Kim at .116. This same lineup put 9 runners on last night and scored nothing. Sale is also coming off 11 full days between starts in what's been framed as a tune-up. And Elly De La Cruz has a 1.031 OPS against lefties, which makes him the Reds' best path to runs. Those holes could keep this game close, and that's why I'm taking the moneyline instead of laying the run line. But the two things that decide this game both point to Atlanta: the gap between the starters and which bullpen has to cover the middle innings. I'm following them.

Atlanta's bullpen is in much better shape. Only Fuentes pitched last night, and closer Raisel Iglesias has had three full days off with a 0.90 ERA over the last 30 days. Sale's 2.18 ERA is well below his 3.06 xERA, so the market is paying a little for a fragile number. But Abbott's 5.02 xERA is worse than his 4.70 ERA, and even on expected stats these two starters are about two runs apart. The price is rich, not wrong.

The case against Atlanta is real. Ronald Acuña Jr. fouled a ball off his left shin last night and isn't in the lineup. Ozzie Albies is 5-for-39 and Austin Riley is 7-for-36 over the last 10 games, and the bottom of the order includes Sean Murphy at .173 and Ha-Seong Kim at .116. This same lineup put 9 runners on last night and scored nothing. Sale is also coming off 11 full days between starts in what's been framed as a tune-up. And Elly De La Cruz has a 1.031 OPS against lefties, which makes him the Reds' best path to runs. Those holes could keep this game close, and that's why I'm taking the moneyline instead of laying the run line. But the two things that decide this game both point to Atlanta: the gap between the starters and which bullpen has to cover the middle innings. I'm following them.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -134

Game two at PNC Park. The wind is blowing in from center at 12 mph, and Pittsburgh hands the ball to Lake Bachar to open a bullpen game against Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore. My pick comes down to which pitching staff handles the middle and late innings better, and that starts with Liberatore. His 5.36 ERA isn't a shaky number the market is overreacting to. His 5.02 xERA and 41.9% hard-hit rate say he's earned most of it. In each of his last five starts he's gone between 4.0 and 6.0 innings, and he was pulled at 69 and 72 pitches in two of them. That leaves 12 to 15 outs for a St. Louis bullpen that has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in its recent relief work, with 26 walks in 44 innings. Setup man George Soriano has allowed 12 hits and 8 walks in 8 innings over the last 30 days. Pittsburgh's top relievers were reported available by name for tonight: - Mason Montgomery: no earned runs in 13.1 innings over the last 30 days - Yohan Ramirez: 14 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.2 innings in that span - Carmen Mlodzinski: 2.50 ERA - Brandon Eisert Bachar's 3.56 ERA sits on a 3.52 xERA, so his roughly two innings to open the game rest on something solid. The Pirates are also the better offense, with a .736 team OPS to the Cardinals' .695. St. Louis has scored 3.2 runs per game over its last five. Pittsburgh has run this setup before, going 5-2 in Bachar's seven openings with the club and allowing 3.0 runs per game, though that's a small sample. The best case against Pittsburgh is the middle of its bullpen game. The Pirates need roughly 21 outs from relievers, and the innings between Bachar and the late-inning arms likely go to a rookie like Antwone Kelly (5.02 ERA) or Khristian Curtis (8.68 ERA over the last 30 days). Luke Weaver and Gregory Soto both pitched last night, and nobody has reported whether they can go. Kirby Yates is back after 23 days off. With Paul Skenes starting a 12:35 PM game tomorrow, Pittsburgh has a reason to save arms, and Oneil Cruz is on the bench against the lefty. I'm taking Pittsburgh anyway. That weak stretch is about three innings, and Wilber Dotel (1.35 ERA over the last 30 days) is in that group too. The Cardinals' weak bottom of the order also has to produce in a pitcher's park with the wind blowing in. At -134 I'm paying a fair price, not getting a bargain. The market's total of 7 to 7.5 says this could be a tight game, so I'll take the moneyline rather than give 1.5 runs.

Pittsburgh's top relievers were reported available by name for tonight: - Mason Montgomery: no earned runs in 13.1 innings over the last 30 days - Yohan Ramirez: 14 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.2 innings in that span - Carmen Mlodzinski: 2.50 ERA - Brandon Eisert

Bachar's 3.56 ERA sits on a 3.52 xERA, so his roughly two innings to open the game rest on something solid. The Pirates are also the better offense, with a .736 team OPS to the Cardinals' .695. St. Louis has scored 3.2 runs per game over its last five. Pittsburgh has run this setup before, going 5-2 in Bachar's seven openings with the club and allowing 3.0 runs per game, though that's a small sample.

The best case against Pittsburgh is the middle of its bullpen game. The Pirates need roughly 21 outs from relievers, and the innings between Bachar and the late-inning arms likely go to a rookie like Antwone Kelly (5.02 ERA) or Khristian Curtis (8.68 ERA over the last 30 days). Luke Weaver and Gregory Soto both pitched last night, and nobody has reported whether they can go. Kirby Yates is back after 23 days off. With Paul Skenes starting a 12:35 PM game tomorrow, Pittsburgh has a reason to save arms, and Oneil Cruz is on the bench against the lefty. I'm taking Pittsburgh anyway. That weak stretch is about three innings, and Wilber Dotel (1.35 ERA over the last 30 days) is in that group too. The Cardinals' weak bottom of the order also has to produce in a pitcher's park with the wind blowing in. At -134 I'm paying a fair price, not getting a bargain. The market's total of 7 to 7.5 says this could be a tight game, so I'll take the moneyline rather than give 1.5 runs.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -116

Game 2 at Kauffman. The White Sox are one win and one Texas loss from clinching a playoff spot. The Royals are out of the race and playing their final homestand as spoilers. Bryan Hudson opens for Chicago against Seth Lugo, and the market barely favors the road side. My bet rests on two things. The first is Lugo against this lineup. Left-handed hitters have an .872 OPS and 14 HR against him in 410 AB, and Chicago starts six lefties plus a switch-hitter. His 5.06 ERA comes with a 5.09 xERA, so it isn't bad luck waiting to even out. His results match how he's pitching. He has given up 7 HR over his last five starts and hasn't gone past five innings in any of them. That leads to the second thing: Kansas City's bullpen will probably have to cover about four innings. That pen has a 5.04 season ERA, and its top two arms gave away late leads or ties three straight days in Pittsburgh. Pearson came in tied 5-5 on Sep 18, Cruz came in up 5-4 on Sep 19, and Pearson came in up 3-2 on Sep 20. Kansas City lost all three. The best argument against me is the ballpark. Kauffman plays at 0.94, the wind is 9 mph in from right, and that works directly against the lefty pull power I'm counting on. Lugo's season ERA is 4.07 at home against 6.10 on the road, and Chicago is 35-44 away from home. I also don't fully trust Fedde's recent run. His 5 earned runs in 28.2 innings rest on roughly a .230 BABIP, so I'm treating him as closer to his 3.90 season ERA. Still, Lugo's last three home starts produced 11 earned runs in 17.0 innings, so the home split hasn't protected him lately. Hudson (3.10 xERA) and Fedde should leave less of this game to Chicago's bullpen than Lugo leaves to Kansas City's. Hagen Smith (1.16 ERA) and Grant Taylor (2.45) both sat out last night, though no one has confirmed who is available. At -116 I'm paying close to a coin-flip price for the side with the better pitching matchup early and late, and the only team with something at stake tonight. I'm taking the moneyline over the run line because Kauffman keeps games close enough that I want the win, not the margin.

My bet rests on two things. The first is Lugo against this lineup. Left-handed hitters have an .872 OPS and 14 HR against him in 410 AB, and Chicago starts six lefties plus a switch-hitter. His 5.06 ERA comes with a 5.09 xERA, so it isn't bad luck waiting to even out. His results match how he's pitching. He has given up 7 HR over his last five starts and hasn't gone past five innings in any of them. That leads to the second thing: Kansas City's bullpen will probably have to cover about four innings. That pen has a 5.04 season ERA, and its top two arms gave away late leads or ties three straight days in Pittsburgh. Pearson came in tied 5-5 on Sep 18, Cruz came in up 5-4 on Sep 19, and Pearson came in up 3-2 on Sep 20. Kansas City lost all three.

The best argument against me is the ballpark. Kauffman plays at 0.94, the wind is 9 mph in from right, and that works directly against the lefty pull power I'm counting on. Lugo's season ERA is 4.07 at home against 6.10 on the road, and Chicago is 35-44 away from home. I also don't fully trust Fedde's recent run. His 5 earned runs in 28.2 innings rest on roughly a .230 BABIP, so I'm treating him as closer to his 3.90 season ERA. Still, Lugo's last three home starts produced 11 earned runs in 17.0 innings, so the home split hasn't protected him lately. Hudson (3.10 xERA) and Fedde should leave less of this game to Chicago's bullpen than Lugo leaves to Kansas City's. Hagen Smith (1.16 ERA) and Grant Taylor (2.45) both sat out last night, though no one has confirmed who is available.

At -116 I'm paying close to a coin-flip price for the side with the better pitching matchup early and late, and the only team with something at stake tonight. I'm taking the moneyline over the run line because Kauffman keeps games close enough that I want the win, not the margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· -126

Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park: the Phillies, up one in the series and two wins from clinching a playoff spot, send Aaron Nola against Logan Henderson and the Brewers, who have the best record in baseball. I'm taking Milwaukee because I trust Henderson more in these conditions and because of the state of the Philadelphia bullpen. Henderson has an xERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 0.81, and he has allowed three runs or fewer in every one of his 22 career starts. The xERA tells me his 2.51 ERA is earned, so the market isn't paying for a fragile number. He gives up a lot of fly balls (0.57 GO/AO), and his one weakness is those fly balls leaving the park. Tonight it's 64 degrees with a 15 mph wind blowing in from center field. That also hurts a Phillies lineup that scores mostly through homers, with Kyle Schwarber just 4-for-35 over his last 10 games. The late innings are where I think this is decided. Jhoan Duran threw 24 pitches last night. Alex McFarlane threw 21 and has pitched on back-to-back days only twice this season. Jose Alvarado pitched for the third time in four days. Philadelphia's relievers have a 5.36 ERA over the recent stretch. Milwaukee's top arms are rested: Trevor Megill has had two full days off, Abner Uribe three, and DL Hall has a 1.23 ERA over the last 30 days. Nola has struck out only 6.6 batters per nine over his last five starts, so he's relying on balls in play. He has also walked 49 left-handed hitters this season, and the Brewers start six lefties. A +202 run differential against +29 says the talent gap is bigger than a -126 price implies, so I think the market is undervaluing Milwaukee here. The best argument against Milwaukee is intent. The Brewers have clinched their bye, and last night they left a long reliever in a tied game in the eighth rather than use their top arms. Nola also comes in hot with a 2.10 ERA over his last 10 starts, Bryce Harper has a 1.003 OPS against righties, and Philadelphia is playing for something tonight. I'm still on Milwaukee. Even if Pat Murphy holds Megill back, his middle relievers are rested and have been better than Philadelphia's options behind the top three. The home run is the Phillies' main way to score, and the wind works against it. The Brewers don't rely on the long ball; their own manager says so. At this price I'll take the better pitcher and the better team.

The late innings are where I think this is decided. Jhoan Duran threw 24 pitches last night. Alex McFarlane threw 21 and has pitched on back-to-back days only twice this season. Jose Alvarado pitched for the third time in four days. Philadelphia's relievers have a 5.36 ERA over the recent stretch. Milwaukee's top arms are rested: Trevor Megill has had two full days off, Abner Uribe three, and DL Hall has a 1.23 ERA over the last 30 days. Nola has struck out only 6.6 batters per nine over his last five starts, so he's relying on balls in play. He has also walked 49 left-handed hitters this season, and the Brewers start six lefties. A +202 run differential against +29 says the talent gap is bigger than a -126 price implies, so I think the market is undervaluing Milwaukee here.

The best argument against Milwaukee is intent. The Brewers have clinched their bye, and last night they left a long reliever in a tied game in the eighth rather than use their top arms. Nola also comes in hot with a 2.10 ERA over his last 10 starts, Bryce Harper has a 1.003 OPS against righties, and Philadelphia is playing for something tonight. I'm still on Milwaukee. Even if Pat Murphy holds Megill back, his middle relievers are rested and have been better than Philadelphia's options behind the top three. The home run is the Phillies' main way to score, and the wind works against it. The Brewers don't rely on the long ball; their own manager says so. At this price I'll take the better pitcher and the better team.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· +114

Game 2 at Fenway on a 56-degree night, with a 13 mph wind blowing in from center. Cleveland is clinging to a one-game lead in the Central with Chicago holding the tiebreaker. Boston has already clinched and has dropped three straight. I'm taking Cleveland at plus money because of where I think this game gets decided. The market total is 6.5, so this sets up as a low-scoring game settled late, and Cleveland has the better arms late. Over the last two weeks Cleveland's bullpen has a 1.02 WHIP and a 21.1% K-BB%, compared with Boston's 1.40 WHIP and 11.1%. Cade Smith has thrown 13.1 innings over the last 30 days without an earned run and has 22 strikeouts. Boston gave last night's tied ninth to Erik Miller, who has a 7.56 ERA and 9 walks in 8.1 innings over the same stretch. The second reason is the lineup Boston is sending out. It stacks right-handed hitters against a lefty, but those righties are the weak part of the order. Jahmai Jones is hitting third at .205, and Trevor Story has a .278 OBP. Story, Caleb Durbin and Ceddanne Rafaela (.282 average against a .247 expected) are all getting results ahead of how hard they've been hitting the ball. Boston has scored 2.4 runs per game over its last five. Cleveland's left-handed hitters do well against right-handers: Travis Bazzana has an .834 OPS against them, Nathaniel Lowe .833 and Chase DeLauter .807. Sonny Gray has been steady, but his 2.82 ERA sits a full run under his 3.84 xERA, and he's walked 8 in his last three starts. At -134, the market is paying for an ERA that his underlying numbers don't fully support. The best argument against this pick is Foster Griffin. As a Guardian he has a 5.79 ERA and has averaged under five innings a start. That hands a big share of the game to a bullpen whose top five arms all pitched last night. It's a real concern, and it's why this isn't a bigger play. But one 8-run outing in Baltimore drives that number. Without it he's at 4.11, and he comes in on seven full days off. Cleveland has rested length behind him: Joey Cantillo threw 6 scoreless innings on Sep 18, and Matt Festa and Slade Cecconi are also rested. Its late-inning arms also pitch the day after often this season: Hunter Gaddis has 16 next-day returns and Smith 13. No one has confirmed their status for tonight. In a game this close, I'll take the better bullpen and the team that needs the win, at plus money.

The second reason is the lineup Boston is sending out. It stacks right-handed hitters against a lefty, but those righties are the weak part of the order. Jahmai Jones is hitting third at .205, and Trevor Story has a .278 OBP. Story, Caleb Durbin and Ceddanne Rafaela (.282 average against a .247 expected) are all getting results ahead of how hard they've been hitting the ball. Boston has scored 2.4 runs per game over its last five. Cleveland's left-handed hitters do well against right-handers: Travis Bazzana has an .834 OPS against them, Nathaniel Lowe .833 and Chase DeLauter .807. Sonny Gray has been steady, but his 2.82 ERA sits a full run under his 3.84 xERA, and he's walked 8 in his last three starts. At -134, the market is paying for an ERA that his underlying numbers don't fully support.

The best argument against this pick is Foster Griffin. As a Guardian he has a 5.79 ERA and has averaged under five innings a start. That hands a big share of the game to a bullpen whose top five arms all pitched last night. It's a real concern, and it's why this isn't a bigger play. But one 8-run outing in Baltimore drives that number. Without it he's at 4.11, and he comes in on seven full days off. Cleveland has rested length behind him: Joey Cantillo threw 6 scoreless innings on Sep 18, and Matt Festa and Slade Cecconi are also rested. Its late-inning arms also pitch the day after often this season: Hunter Gaddis has 16 next-day returns and Smith 13. No one has confirmed their status for tonight. In a game this close, I'll take the better bullpen and the team that needs the win, at plus money.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· -108

Under the closed roof in Arlington, a Rangers team clinging to a share of the AL West hands the ball to Cody Bradford against Nolan McLean and a Mets club playing out the string. My pick rests on two connected questions: how long each starter can stay in the game, and whose bullpen has to cover the rest. McLean has gone 6.0, 5.0, 6.0, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in his last five starts, and right-handed hitters have only a .515 OPS against him. Bradford has gone 4.0, 4.0, 5.2, 5.1 and 4.0 in his last five starts and has 20 strikeouts in 38.2 innings all season. His main pitch is an 88.5 mph four-seamer that he throws 53.5% of the time and that allows a .375 xwOBA. Soto (.424 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Benge (.398) are the bats built to punish that pitch. Bradford's 4.19 ERA sits on a 5.16 xERA, so a pick'em price is paying for a fragile number. Because Bradford doesn't go deep, Texas has to cover roughly half the game with its bullpen. Eovaldi, Junis, Garcia and Gray all pitched Tuesday, and there is no report on whether any of them is available tonight. Silseth is rested, but he has a 7.56 ERA over his last 30 days. Latz, Montgomery and Trevor Williams give Texas real options, but that is a lot of outs for a thin group. If McLean pitches his usual length, the Mets need fewer bullpen outs, and their relievers have an 18.72 strikeout-minus-walk rate in tracked games against 10.37 for Texas. Seager (.646 OPS over his last 10 games) and Nimmo (.626) are the lefties best placed to attack McLean's weaker side, and both come in cold. The best case against this is real. Texas is 44-35 at home with the division on the line, and McLean's control has slipped: he has walked 4.5 batters per nine innings over his last five starts. A patient Rangers lineup led by Jung and Langford could run up his pitch count and bring the Mets bullpen in early. I'm taking the Mets anyway. The price already gives Texas credit for home field and urgency. It doesn't give enough credit to a starting-pitching gap that gets bigger the longer the game goes. At -108, I'll back the better starter and the lighter bullpen load.

Because Bradford doesn't go deep, Texas has to cover roughly half the game with its bullpen. Eovaldi, Junis, Garcia and Gray all pitched Tuesday, and there is no report on whether any of them is available tonight. Silseth is rested, but he has a 7.56 ERA over his last 30 days. Latz, Montgomery and Trevor Williams give Texas real options, but that is a lot of outs for a thin group. If McLean pitches his usual length, the Mets need fewer bullpen outs, and their relievers have an 18.72 strikeout-minus-walk rate in tracked games against 10.37 for Texas. Seager (.646 OPS over his last 10 games) and Nimmo (.626) are the lefties best placed to attack McLean's weaker side, and both come in cold.

The best case against this is real. Texas is 44-35 at home with the division on the line, and McLean's control has slipped: he has walked 4.5 batters per nine innings over his last five starts. A patient Rangers lineup led by Jung and Langford could run up his pitch count and bring the Mets bullpen in early. I'm taking the Mets anyway. The price already gives Texas credit for home field and urgency. It doesn't give enough credit to a starting-pitching gap that gets bigger the longer the game goes. At -108, I'll back the better starter and the lighter bullpen load.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -158

Arizona comes into Coors Field with its elimination number down to 2 and sends Merrill Kelly out against Rockies rookie Mason Adams in the middle game of the series. I'm on the Diamondbacks moneyline. I'm not buying Kelly here. I'm buying what happens after the starters leave. Neither starter is likely to go deep. Adams hasn't gone past 5.0 innings in any of his five starts, and Lovullo has been pulling Kelly early in these must-win games. That makes this a bullpen game from the middle innings on, and that's where the gap between these teams is widest. Arizona's relievers have a 2.12 ERA in tracked games, and Colorado's have a 5.37. Brandyn Garcia (1.84 ERA), Jonathan Loáisiga (2.25) and Taylor Clarke (2.71) all last pitched Sep 20. None of them is confirmed available, but none pitched last night. Colorado used Zach Agnos for 53 pitches last night, and when it trails it has been giving the middle innings to Jimmy Herget (5.81), Jaden Hill (5.50) and Nick Frasso (6.41). Adams is also a poor fit for altitude. He has allowed 55.4% hard contact, leans fly-ball with a 0.70 GO/AO, and gave up 9 earned runs in 9.0 innings across his two Coors starts. Gabriel Moreno carries a .910 OPS against right-handers into that matchup. Arizona has more ways to score early and hold a lead late. The case against me is real, and it's Kelly. His 5.00 ERA looks fragile next to a 6.47 xERA, lefties have hit .864 OPS against him, and Colorado bats six hitters from the left side tonight. If the market is overpaying for a fragile number, it's Kelly's ERA, and that's exactly why this bet isn't about Kelly. At -158 I'm paying for Arizona's bullpen covering the innings that decide this game, against a Colorado bullpen that has Brennan Bernardino (2.51) and little proven help behind him. Arizona's +4 run differential says this is no juggernaut, and the price is close to fair, so this is a modest edge, not a hammer. With both starters probably gone by the middle innings, I trust the team with the better relievers to finish the game.

Neither starter is likely to go deep. Adams hasn't gone past 5.0 innings in any of his five starts, and Lovullo has been pulling Kelly early in these must-win games. That makes this a bullpen game from the middle innings on, and that's where the gap between these teams is widest. Arizona's relievers have a 2.12 ERA in tracked games, and Colorado's have a 5.37. Brandyn Garcia (1.84 ERA), Jonathan Loáisiga (2.25) and Taylor Clarke (2.71) all last pitched Sep 20. None of them is confirmed available, but none pitched last night. Colorado used Zach Agnos for 53 pitches last night, and when it trails it has been giving the middle innings to Jimmy Herget (5.81), Jaden Hill (5.50) and Nick Frasso (6.41). Adams is also a poor fit for altitude. He has allowed 55.4% hard contact, leans fly-ball with a 0.70 GO/AO, and gave up 9 earned runs in 9.0 innings across his two Coors starts. Gabriel Moreno carries a .910 OPS against right-handers into that matchup. Arizona has more ways to score early and hold a lead late.

The case against me is real, and it's Kelly. His 5.00 ERA looks fragile next to a 6.47 xERA, lefties have hit .864 OPS against him, and Colorado bats six hitters from the left side tonight. If the market is overpaying for a fragile number, it's Kelly's ERA, and that's exactly why this bet isn't about Kelly. At -158 I'm paying for Arizona's bullpen covering the innings that decide this game, against a Colorado bullpen that has Brennan Bernardino (2.51) and little proven help behind him. Arizona's +4 run differential says this is no juggernaut, and the price is close to fair, so this is a modest edge, not a hammer. With both starters probably gone by the middle innings, I trust the team with the better relievers to finish the game.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· -144

It's Game 3 in the Bronx with the series tied 1-1, and for the first time all week neither club needs the win. The Rays celebrated their division title on this field last night, and the Yankees are counting down to a wild-card series. What carries this pick is the mound. Mason Englert hasn't thrown a big-league pitch in 67 days. He gave up five homers in 10.2 innings across his last two MLB starts, and 14.7% of the balls hit off him are barrels, against 8.6% for Gerrit Cole. His sinker, roughly one pitch in five, has been hit for a .451 xwOBA. Ben Rice gets to swing at it: 39 homers, a .937 OPS against righties, a .371 xwOBA against sinkers and .422 against four-seamers. A 314-foot porch sits in right, and a 15 mph wind blowing in from left does less to protect that side. Englert's 4.54 ERA sits well under his 5.77 xERA, so any Rays price built on that ERA is paying for a fragile number. The second factor is how Tampa Bay is handling tonight. The day after clinching, they called up a spot starter and sat Yandy Diaz, Taylor Walls and Chandler Simpson. Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser and Ty Johnson all pitched Tuesday. The bottom of the order Cole faces is thin: Palacios .232, Vilade .252, Mullins .202, Mateo .205. Junior Caminero, their best power bat, hits right-handed into that wind. Cole's recent damage came mostly in two starts. After working on his delivery, he answered with six innings, two runs and zero walks on 90 pitches at Arizona. His control never left: 2 walks in his last 28.2 innings. The case against is real. The Yankees' lineup is as thin as it has been all year. Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt are sitting, and Luis Garcia Jr. is 2-for-31 over his last eight games hitting third. Cole has also allowed 9 homers in those same 28.2 innings. Englert's changeup, with a .251 xwOBA allowed, is a legitimate weapon, and the Rays' bullpen has been the better unit lately, 2.55 ERA against 4.01. But that bullpen edge shrinks on a night when their top relievers all worked in the clinch. A team with nothing left to play for is starting the pitcher with the worse contact profile of the two. At -144, I'll take Cole and the home side.

The second factor is how Tampa Bay is handling tonight. The day after clinching, they called up a spot starter and sat Yandy Diaz, Taylor Walls and Chandler Simpson. Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser and Ty Johnson all pitched Tuesday. The bottom of the order Cole faces is thin: Palacios .232, Vilade .252, Mullins .202, Mateo .205. Junior Caminero, their best power bat, hits right-handed into that wind. Cole's recent damage came mostly in two starts. After working on his delivery, he answered with six innings, two runs and zero walks on 90 pitches at Arizona. His control never left: 2 walks in his last 28.2 innings.

The case against is real. The Yankees' lineup is as thin as it has been all year. Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt are sitting, and Luis Garcia Jr. is 2-for-31 over his last eight games hitting third. Cole has also allowed 9 homers in those same 28.2 innings. Englert's changeup, with a .251 xwOBA allowed, is a legitimate weapon, and the Rays' bullpen has been the better unit lately, 2.55 ERA against 4.01. But that bullpen edge shrinks on a night when their top relievers all worked in the clinch. A team with nothing left to play for is starting the pitcher with the worse contact profile of the two. At -144, I'll take Cole and the home side.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· -180

Game 2 at Wrigley on a cool 63-degree night, with a 12 mph wind blowing in from center. The Cubs can clinch a postseason berth, and the Marlins team that spoiled it last night is back. My pick rests on the middle innings. Ryan Gusto has thrown 4.1, 6.0, 4.2, 4.1 and 5.2 innings in his last five starts. He has a 1.68 WHIP over that stretch, with 18 strikeouts against 11 walks. The last time he faced the Cubs, they got 10 hits and 5 earned runs off him in 4.2 innings. His 4.14 ERA sits against a 4.95 xERA, so the market is paying for a fragile number on the Miami side. When he leaves, Miami's bullpen takes over the night after using eight relievers in a 12-inning game. Faucher and Petersen have been excellent, with 0.00 and 0.90 ERAs over the last 30 days. Behind them, Zuber is at 10.22 and Gibson at 6.35 over the same window. Miami's relievers have a 5.33 ERA over the last two weeks; the Cubs' have a 3.38. The other side of the matchup also favors Chicago. Kevin Gausman has a 4.01 xERA and 177 strikeouts in 172 innings, and he has thrown 94 to 103 pitches in each of his last five starts. That means the Cubs' bullpen should have fewer innings to cover. With the wind blowing in tonight, fly balls shouldn't carry, and home runs are how he's been hurt as a Cub. Balls kept in play meet a Cubs defense with 59 errors to Miami's 98. The lineup gap is real too: the Cubs score 5.3 runs a game to Miami's 4.5, and the Marlins are 32-47 on the road. The best argument against the Cubs is Gausman himself. As a Cub he has a 5.04 ERA and has allowed 10 home runs in 44.2 innings, with five or more earned runs in three of his eight starts. Last night Janson Junk and Miami's relievers held this lineup to two runs over 12 innings. Chicago is also without Bregman and has no settled closer, with Webb at a 10.29 ERA over 30 days. At -180, I'm not getting this cheap. I take it anyway because my edge doesn't need Gausman to be great. It rests on Gusto's short outings and on how thin Miami's pen is behind its top two arms. I'll take the moneyline rather than -1.5: with the wind in, a low total, and a home team that may not bat in the ninth, the margin could easily be one run.

The other side of the matchup also favors Chicago. Kevin Gausman has a 4.01 xERA and 177 strikeouts in 172 innings, and he has thrown 94 to 103 pitches in each of his last five starts. That means the Cubs' bullpen should have fewer innings to cover. With the wind blowing in tonight, fly balls shouldn't carry, and home runs are how he's been hurt as a Cub. Balls kept in play meet a Cubs defense with 59 errors to Miami's 98. The lineup gap is real too: the Cubs score 5.3 runs a game to Miami's 4.5, and the Marlins are 32-47 on the road.

The best argument against the Cubs is Gausman himself. As a Cub he has a 5.04 ERA and has allowed 10 home runs in 44.2 innings, with five or more earned runs in three of his eight starts. Last night Janson Junk and Miami's relievers held this lineup to two runs over 12 innings. Chicago is also without Bregman and has no settled closer, with Webb at a 10.29 ERA over 30 days. At -180, I'm not getting this cheap. I take it anyway because my edge doesn't need Gausman to be great. It rests on Gusto's short outings and on how thin Miami's pen is behind its top two arms. I'll take the moneyline rather than -1.5: with the wind in, a low total, and a home team that may not bat in the ninth, the margin could easily be one run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -120

The lights come on at Camden Yards for the nightcap, with a 15 mph wind blowing in from center and an Orioles club one loss from elimination facing a Blue Jays team that was officially eliminated this afternoon. For me this game comes down to the lineup card Toronto posted. Guerrero, Springer and Gimenez all played Game 1 and all sit tonight, and Bateman is out with a hip injury. That leaves Kirk and Okamoto as the only real threats. Keys (.196), Schneider (.145), Smith (.211) and Straw (.237) fill out most of the rest of the order. Toronto's contact over its last three games was a soft .295 xwOBA, and that was with the regulars playing. The lineup news came out today, and a price around 52% no-vig for Baltimore doesn't look like it has fully caught up. The other half is Van Eyk, making his first MLB start with 1 strikeout in 6.2 innings and a 5.92 xERA. A pitcher who doesn't miss bats is putting balls in play against Alonso, who has 41 homers, a .919 OPS against right-handers and three homers in this series already. Mayo's .571 OPS against righties means Baltimore leans on Alonso, but it only takes a couple of big swings in a game like this. Walker, Cano and Wolfram didn't pitch in Game 1, and all three have been sharp over the last 30 days: Walker has allowed 0 earned runs in 11 innings, Cano has a 1.17 ERA and Wolfram 1.54. With tomorrow off, Albernaz can use all of them, although nobody has confirmed their availability. The best argument against Baltimore is Gibson himself. His 7.36 ERA is backed by a 6.94 xERA, he walked 18 in 20.2 innings over his last five starts, and he hasn't started in the majors since June. Kittredge, Nunez and Garcia all pitched this afternoon, although on just 13, 14 and 7 pitches. Toronto also has Varland (1.29 ERA) and Miles (1.61) unused today. That's a real risk, and I don't expect Gibson to go deep. But walks cost the least against a lineup with no power behind Okamoto. I'll take the team still playing for something against a team resting its stars, at close to even money. Orioles on the moneyline.

The other half is Van Eyk, making his first MLB start with 1 strikeout in 6.2 innings and a 5.92 xERA. A pitcher who doesn't miss bats is putting balls in play against Alonso, who has 41 homers, a .919 OPS against right-handers and three homers in this series already. Mayo's .571 OPS against righties means Baltimore leans on Alonso, but it only takes a couple of big swings in a game like this. Walker, Cano and Wolfram didn't pitch in Game 1, and all three have been sharp over the last 30 days: Walker has allowed 0 earned runs in 11 innings, Cano has a 1.17 ERA and Wolfram 1.54. With tomorrow off, Albernaz can use all of them, although nobody has confirmed their availability.

The best argument against Baltimore is Gibson himself. His 7.36 ERA is backed by a 6.94 xERA, he walked 18 in 20.2 innings over his last five starts, and he hasn't started in the majors since June. Kittredge, Nunez and Garcia all pitched this afternoon, although on just 13, 14 and 7 pitches. Toronto also has Varland (1.29 ERA) and Miles (1.61) unused today. That's a real risk, and I don't expect Gibson to go deep. But walks cost the least against a lineup with no power behind Okamoto. I'll take the team still playing for something against a team resting its stars, at close to even money. Orioles on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -134

The Angels and Athletics close their two-game set at Sutter Health Park after Oakland’s comeback in the opener. Tonight, my money is on Los Angeles because Ureña’s recent control and longer outings give the Angels a credible way to build a lead while reducing their bullpen exposure. He has walked three hitters across his last four starts, completing at least six innings each time. Across the last five, his 2.56 ERA in 31⅔ innings compares with Springs’ 6.93 in 24⅔. That combination carries more weight for me than yesterday’s result: the Angels have a starter who has recently supplied both effective innings and length. The offensive matchup gives Los Angeles another reason to justify laying -134. Neto has an .870 OPS against left-handed pitching across 168 at-bats, and Trout has an .816 mark across 142. Springs has allowed an .820 OPS to righties and .936 to lefties, so this case rests on his actual results against both sides rather than an automatic bonus for the Angels’ right-handed lineup. Ureña has allowed .528 and .648, respectively. Springs’ 4.82 expected ERA versus 6.18 actual warns against overpricing his struggles, while Ureña’s 3.30 expected versus 2.74 actual tempers the apparent separation. Even after that price adjustment, I judge the starting matchup strong enough to support this modest favorite. The strongest argument against Los Angeles is the finish. Oakland’s bullpen has a 4.10 ERA across the tracked games against the Angels’ 5.79, and the Angels’ bottom of the order offers limited offensive support. I take those objections seriously. Joyce and Watson last appeared September 19, but those dates do not establish tonight’s availability; neither bullpen has confirmed clearance throughout. My read is that Ureña’s recent length makes a shorter relief assignment more plausible, while Springs’ shorter outings leave Oakland facing a potentially longer assignment after seven bullpen innings September 22. That remains a forecast. At this price, I trust the Angels’ starting matchup enough to accept the late-game risk.

The offensive matchup gives Los Angeles another reason to justify laying -134. Neto has an .870 OPS against left-handed pitching across 168 at-bats, and Trout has an .816 mark across 142. Springs has allowed an .820 OPS to righties and .936 to lefties, so this case rests on his actual results against both sides rather than an automatic bonus for the Angels’ right-handed lineup. Ureña has allowed .528 and .648, respectively. Springs’ 4.82 expected ERA versus 6.18 actual warns against overpricing his struggles, while Ureña’s 3.30 expected versus 2.74 actual tempers the apparent separation. Even after that price adjustment, I judge the starting matchup strong enough to support this modest favorite.

The strongest argument against Los Angeles is the finish. Oakland’s bullpen has a 4.10 ERA across the tracked games against the Angels’ 5.79, and the Angels’ bottom of the order offers limited offensive support. I take those objections seriously. Joyce and Watson last appeared September 19, but those dates do not establish tonight’s availability; neither bullpen has confirmed clearance throughout. My read is that Ureña’s recent length makes a shorter relief assignment more plausible, while Springs’ shorter outings leave Oakland facing a potentially longer assignment after seven bullpen innings September 22. That remains a forecast. At this price, I trust the Angels’ starting matchup enough to accept the late-game risk.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Padres· -102

The lights are on at Dodger Stadium for the middle game of Padres–Dodgers, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Robbie Ray. I’m taking Los Angeles because the combination of Yamamoto’s recent command and the Dodgers’ offensive production gives me the stronger route through this particular game. Yamamoto has completed seven innings in each of his last three starts, and his season splits show no obvious opening against either side: .517 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters and .573 against right-handers. His latest two starts came against Cincinnati, which tempers how far I carry those performances forward. Still, the broader evidence supports the same read. Ray’s latest six-inning outing at Colorado gives San Diego a legitimate counterargument. But it followed outings of five innings and 2⅓ innings, and his season WHIP is 1.33 against Yamamoto’s 0.87. Los Angeles also brings a .766 team OPS against San Diego’s .717. Those advantages are already visible in the price; my judgment is that their combination remains strong enough to justify backing the favorite tonight. Ohtani is confirmed at DH, so the Dodgers’ recent offensive results describe a different lineup from the one taking the field. I’m not assigning an automatic boost to his return, but I am evaluating tonight’s confirmed personnel. The strongest argument against my ticket is San Diego’s potential bullpen finish. Miller, Morejon, Rodriguez and Matsui did not pitch Tuesday, while Los Angeles used seven pitchers who remain on tonight’s roster. Their availability remains unknown, and an early Yamamoto exit would make that distinction more consequential. But Scott, Phillips and Bubic also avoided Tuesday’s game action, so the Dodgers’ bullpen game does not establish that their finishing options are exhausted. San Diego’s recent scoring surge deserves respect; it does not disappear because of one shutout. At -225, there is little room for error. I accept that price because I trust Los Angeles’ combination of starting pitching and offense to outweigh the Padres’ plausible late-game advantage.

Ray’s latest six-inning outing at Colorado gives San Diego a legitimate counterargument. But it followed outings of five innings and 2⅓ innings, and his season WHIP is 1.33 against Yamamoto’s 0.87. Los Angeles also brings a .766 team OPS against San Diego’s .717. Those advantages are already visible in the price; my judgment is that their combination remains strong enough to justify backing the favorite tonight. Ohtani is confirmed at DH, so the Dodgers’ recent offensive results describe a different lineup from the one taking the field. I’m not assigning an automatic boost to his return, but I am evaluating tonight’s confirmed personnel.

The strongest argument against my ticket is San Diego’s potential bullpen finish. Miller, Morejon, Rodriguez and Matsui did not pitch Tuesday, while Los Angeles used seven pitchers who remain on tonight’s roster. Their availability remains unknown, and an early Yamamoto exit would make that distinction more consequential. But Scott, Phillips and Bubic also avoided Tuesday’s game action, so the Dodgers’ bullpen game does not establish that their finishing options are exhausted. San Diego’s recent scoring surge deserves respect; it does not disappear because of one shutout. At -225, there is little room for error. I accept that price because I trust Los Angeles’ combination of starting pitching and offense to outweigh the Padres’ plausible late-game advantage.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -130

The Astros and Mariners meet for the last time this season on a cool night at T-Mobile Park. Houston is tied for the AL West lead and sends rookie Ethan Pecko to the mound. Seattle is one loss from elimination and answers with George Kirby. What decides it for me is how long each starter lasts. Kirby has a 6.21 ERA over his last seven starts, but that damage came on the road. His three home starts in that stretch cost 5 earned runs in 19.1 innings, and his season home ERA is 3.27. As a starter, Pecko has a 5.19 ERA with 10 walks in 17.1 innings, and he has never recorded more than 15 outs in a start. His 3.77 ERA against a 4.82 xERA is a fragile number, and the market is paying for it as the line has drifted toward Houston. That gap in length decides the middle innings. If Pecko lasts his usual four or five innings, Houston likely needs 12 to 15 relief outs before Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader. Three of the arms who covered for Houston last night threw real pitch counts: Bennett Sousa threw 40, Miguel Ullola 33 and Logan VanWey 25. Among the arms with rest, Bryan King has an 11.81 ERA over his last 30 days. Houston's lineup is also thin. Jeremy Peña was held out after being hit on the wrist, so Nick Allen and his .272 xSLG play shortstop, and Lucas Spence, hitting .162, plays center. Seattle needs Kirby to reach a bullpen that has had days off, including Seranthony Domínguez, who has a 0.83 WHIP over his last 30 days. The best argument against Seattle is real. Yordan Alvarez, with a 1.113 OPS against righties and 41 homers, gets several looks at Kirby. Houston's middle of the order is hot. If the Astros lead late, Abreu and Hader have rest, and Hader is 26-for-26 in saves with a 0.83 ERA. Seattle has been shut out 15 times, including last night, and closer Andrés Muñoz is day-to-day. I'm taking Seattle anyway. For Houston to win, its weakest relievers and a lineup missing its shortstop and both usual center fielders have to beat a pitcher at his best park. At -130, I'll pay for that.

That gap in length decides the middle innings. If Pecko lasts his usual four or five innings, Houston likely needs 12 to 15 relief outs before Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader. Three of the arms who covered for Houston last night threw real pitch counts: Bennett Sousa threw 40, Miguel Ullola 33 and Logan VanWey 25. Among the arms with rest, Bryan King has an 11.81 ERA over his last 30 days. Houston's lineup is also thin. Jeremy Peña was held out after being hit on the wrist, so Nick Allen and his .272 xSLG play shortstop, and Lucas Spence, hitting .162, plays center. Seattle needs Kirby to reach a bullpen that has had days off, including Seranthony Domínguez, who has a 0.83 WHIP over his last 30 days.

The best argument against Seattle is real. Yordan Alvarez, with a 1.113 OPS against righties and 41 homers, gets several looks at Kirby. Houston's middle of the order is hot. If the Astros lead late, Abreu and Hader have rest, and Hader is 26-for-26 in saves with a 0.83 ERA. Seattle has been shut out 15 times, including last night, and closer Andrés Muñoz is day-to-day. I'm taking Seattle anyway. For Houston to win, its weakest relievers and a lineup missing its shortstop and both usual center fielders have to beat a pitcher at his best park. At -130, I'll pay for that.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

MAX SCHERZERPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -136

I'm taking Max Scherzer over 14.5 outs at -136. He needs to get one out into the sixth or finish five full innings, and lately he has done that almost every time. His last eight starts, newest first, went 15, 15, 17, 21, 15, 12, 15 and 16 outs. That's seven of eight over this number. The one miss was the 7 run blowup at Tampa on August 19. The detail I like most is Sep 11 against this same Orioles lineup. He gave up six earned runs and still recorded 15 outs on 83 pitches. When Toronto is short on arms, John Schneider lets him wear a bad day. Toronto is short on arms today. Dylan Cease was scratched from his Wednesday start, so Game 2 of this doubleheader has no settled starter. On Monday the bullpen covered six innings after Trey Yesavage came back from the injured list and threw only 40 pitches. Tyler Rogers worked Sep 19, 20 and 21, and Chad Dallas threw 34 pitches Monday. Scherzer is on six days of rest and has been efficient. He recorded 15 outs on 73 pitches against Detroit last time out. The cool air and the wind blowing in from center also help a fly ball pitcher keep his pitch count down. The strongest case against me is how thin the margin is. Five of those eight starts ended at exactly 15 outs, so he has been living right at this line, and one out short loses the ticket. His season average is 13.6 outs, pulled down by early starts of 2.0, 2.1 and 2.1 innings. His first inning ERA is 9.56 across 16 innings, and in a game Toronto has to win, a crooked number early could bring a hook no matter who is available in the pen. I'll take the recent pattern and the doubleheader math over the season number.

GARY'S PICK

MAX SCHERZERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -145

I'm taking Max Scherzer over 1.5 earned runs at -145, so two earned runs cashes it. The price implies about 59 percent. He has gone over in five of his last eight starts, allowing 1, 6, 3, 0, 2, 7, 1 and 2 newest first, and he averages 3.1 earned runs per start this season. The split I'm leaning on is his platoon line. Left-handed hitters have a .851 OPS and 9 homers in 175 at bats against him. Right-handed hitters have a .584 OPS. Baltimore's top of the order has the left-handed bats that matter. Gunnar Henderson is 8 for 25 over the last week and 4 for 10 career against him. Colton Cowser is 3 for 7 with two homers off him, and Dylan Beavers is 2 for 4 with a homer. Those are tiny samples, so I weigh the platoon split more than the head to head numbers. On Sep 11, left-handed hitters went 6 for 14 with a homer against him in the six run start. The weather matters less than it looks. The wind blowing in hurts home runs, but 12 of the 15 recent scoring plays against him came without the ball leaving the park. They were singles and doubles strung together, which is how Baltimore scored five in the second inning on Sep 11. The case against me is real. This Orioles lineup is thin. Samuel Basallo is out after taking a foul tip off his mask, Carlos Narvaez catches with a .477 OPS, Jeremiah Jackson has a .611 OPS, Coby Mayo has a .571 OPS against right-handers, and Beavers is 1 for 18 over the last week. Pete Alonso is only 4 for 23 lifetime against Scherzer. Baltimore averaged 3.2 runs over its last five games and was shut out twice by Milwaukee. Toronto has also made seven errors in its last seven games, and any unearned run does nothing for this ticket. Scherzer's last start was one earned run over five innings. Still, a pitcher with a 5.25 ERA outside his worst start, working five or more innings against a lineup with those left-handed bats at the top, should give up two earned runs more often than this price implies.

GARY'S PICK

FRAMBER VALDEZK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -143

I'm taking Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeouts at -143. At that price I need the under to land about 59% of the time, and his recent starts clear that easily. Over his last eight starts he struck out 8, 2, 3, 5, 0, 5, 3 and 5. That's seven of eight at five or fewer. He averages 4.3 strikeouts a start across 30 starts this season. That comes to 129 strikeouts in 168.2 innings, so he isn't built to rack up strikeouts. His pitch mix explains why. He throws the sinker 44.5% of the time, and hitters swing and miss at it only 10.7% of the time. He uses it to get ground balls and early contact, with a 1.65 groundout-to-flyout ratio. The curveball is his put-away pitch, and he throws it about three times in ten. Even with a normal workload of 90 to 105 pitches, most plate appearances end with the ball in play. Washington's lineup also has contact hitters where it counts. Jacob Young has 76 strikeouts in 409 at-bats and bats eighth. Andres Chaparro and Yohandy Morales sit in the middle of the order, and neither is an extreme swing-and-miss bat. The case against me is real. His last start was the 8-strikeout game in Chicago, and his swinging-strike rate hit 42% that night. His curveball drew whiffs on 53% of swings in that outing. Washington's nine strikes out in about 24 of every 100 plate appearances, and James Wood, CJ Abrams and Brady House all strike out a lot. If that curveball is as sharp as it was last time, six is possible. Still, one strong start doesn't outweigh an eight-start pattern and a sinker-first approach. I'll take the under.

GARY'S PICK

AUSTIN MARTINH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -109

I'm taking Austin Martin under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -109. He has gone over this line in only 2 of his last 15 games, and one of those was a single eight-count night. In the other 14 he posted 0, 1 or 2 just once. He is 1 for 16 in September and hasn't played in any of the Twins' last three games, so he comes in cold. He's hitting .232 with 3 home runs in 298 at-bats, which gives him very little chance to cover the line with one swing. Much of his .343 on-base percentage comes from walks, and walks don't count here. He averages 1.3 per game over 103 games, but a few big nights pull that average up. His normal game ends at zero or one. The case for the over is the batting order and the matchup. He bats second today against a left-hander, which is his better side: a .751 OPS in 136 at-bats against lefties compared with .582 against righties. Cesar Perdomo's four-seamer has allowed a .435 xwOBA, and he has allowed 46.9% hard contact, although that comes from only three big-league starts. Josh Bell and Brooks Lee hit behind Martin, so one single could easily become a hit and a run. That is how he gets to two. I still see a cold part-time bat who will probably get three or four plate appearances in a pitcher's park on a getaway day. I'll take the under at close to even money.

GARY'S PICK

JUAN BRITOH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -168

I'm taking Juan Brito over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -168. He only needs one thing to happen: a hit, a run scored or a run driven in. At this price the book is saying that happens about 63 percent of the time. I think it's a little more likely than that. The case starts with where he's batting. Brito leads off tonight against a lefty. A leadoff man gets the most trips to the plate of anyone in the lineup, and Brito averages 3.7 of them a game. Right behind him are Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting .394 with a 1.262 OPS in September and .340 with a 1.031 OPS against lefties, and Sal Stewart, who has 110 RBIs. If Brito gets on base at all, one of those two can bring him home. That's what makes this combined prop work for him. He's also swinging well. He's hit .325 with an .874 OPS in 40 September at-bats, went 9 for 29 over the last 15 days, and has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games. As a switch hitter he bats right-handed against lefties, and he's hit .378 with a .968 OPS against them this year. That .378 comes from only 37 at-bats, so I'm treating it as a sign he's comfortable from that side, not as his real talent level. The main thing working against this bet is Chris Sale. He has a 2.18 ERA, and right-handed hitters are batting just .211 with a .566 OPS against him. Brito is 0 for 3 against him in his career, and he hasn't played either of the last two games. The Braves bullpen is also well rested behind Sale. There is one thing on Brito's side: Sale's outs line is set at 15.5, so the market expects him out after about five innings. That likely gives Brito at least one trip against a reliever. Getting four chances at one thing going right is worth the price.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW ABBOTTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -137

I'm taking Andrew Abbott over 1.5 walks at -137. He needs to walk two batters, and his season says that's his normal night. He has walked 75 batters in 159 innings, which is 2.4 per start. He has walked two or more in 6 of his last 8 starts, including five on 98 pitches against the Dodgers last time out. His September ERA is 7.59, and his whiff rate by start has swung between 5 percent and 31 percent. When a pitcher can't get swings and misses, he ends up working deep into counts, and deep counts turn into walks. The top of the Braves order is patient. Drake Baldwin has drawn 55 walks and Matt Olson 63, and Abbott could see each of them three times. Brewer Hicklen, down in the eighth spot, has 7 walks in only 33 at-bats. That's a small sample, but it fits what he does. On my math, Abbott should face about 22 batters, and that leaves the chance of two or more walks a little above the 58 percent this price implies. The real risk is how long he stays in the game. His outs line is only 14.5. In his last three starts he went 4.2, 2.0 and 4.0 innings, and in the 2.0 inning start he got hit so fast that he never walked anyone. The same thing could happen tonight. The Braves as a team also don't walk much. They average 2.88 walks a game, and tonight's nine walk just 7 times per 100 plate appearances. Ronald Acuña Jr. isn't in the lineup either. I'm betting that Abbott's own walk problem outweighs a lineup that doesn't walk much, and I'd rather take that side than pay extra for the opposite.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW LIBERATOREPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -175

I'm taking Matthew Liberatore over 1.5 earned runs at -175. That's an expensive price, and his record supports it. He has allowed two or more earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. Newest first, those starts went 1, 2, 5, 3, 8, 3, 2, 5. Across 30 starts he averages 3.0 earned runs with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Hitters make hard contact against him: a 41.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.2% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters have an .824 OPS and 20 home runs against him this season, and his first-inning ERA is 5.70 over 30 innings. Pittsburgh's lineup tonight is built to take advantage of that. Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and Jacob Gonzalez are all on the bench, which leaves four right-handed bats and three switch hitters. Konnor Griffin leads off with a .325 average and an .837 OPS against lefties. Rafael Flores Jr. hits second with a .917 OPS against lefties, and he is 9 for 17 over the last seven days. Bryan Reynolds is 6 for 18 with a home run in his career against Liberatore. The last time Liberatore saw this club, on August 30, he gave up 3 earned runs and 2 home runs in 5.2 innings. The short leash also helps the over. He has come out at 69 and 72 pitches in recent starts. If Marmol pulls him with runners on base, any of those runners who score are charged to Liberatore, and the Cardinals bullpen is near the bottom of the league at stranding runners. The strongest case against this bet is the Pirates' record against lefties. They are 18-32 against left-handed starters with a .700 OPS against lefties. PNC plays in the pitcher's favor, and the wind is blowing in from center at 12 mph. Pittsburgh scored only two runs last night. Liberatore's most recent start was his best in weeks: 6 innings and 1 earned run against the Giants. At -175 I need about 64% to break even. His run history against a right-handed lineup puts him closer to 68%, so the edge is real but small.

GARY'S PICK

NATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -178

I'm taking Nathan Church over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -178. He has cleared this line in 12 of his last 15 games and averages 1.6 per game this season across 127 games. He's also swinging a hot bat. He is hitting .333 with an .857 OPS over the last 15 days and .328 in September. He had the only hit off Jared Jones last night, a double to the opposite field that ended the perfect game in the sixth. The matchup comes from how Pittsburgh is covering this game. Lake Bachar opens and usually goes about two innings. Batting eighth, Church may face him once or not at all. Most of his plate appearances will likely come in the middle innings against rookie righties: Antwone Kelly with a 5.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, Khristian Curtis with 11 walks in 17.1 innings, or Wilber Dotel with a 4.58 ERA. Church is a left-handed hitter with a .256 average against righties, and 8 of his 10 home runs have come off them. Bachar himself allows a .696 OPS to lefties against .581 to righties. This line also pays on a run or an RBI, so a walk that comes around to score is enough. The risks are real. From the eighth spot he averages only 3.6 plate appearances, so there are fewer chances to cash. He is 0 for 4 in his career against Bachar. Against lefties he drops to .239 with a .627 OPS, and Pittsburgh can close with Mason Montgomery or Brandon Eisert, both left-handed. The Cardinals managed one hit last night and have scored 3.2 runs per game over their last five, and the wind in from center makes it harder for the whole lineup. At -178 I need about 64% to break even. His recent form and his likely matchups against right-handed middle relief put him near 67%, so this is a thin edge. I'm passing on Brandon Lowe's home run at +550. He faces a lefty tonight, and he has only 7 home runs in 185 at-bats against lefties this year. The wind is blowing in at PNC, so the price doesn't pay enough.

GARY'S PICK

SETH LUGOPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -150

I'm taking Seth Lugo over 4.5 hits allowed at -150. That price means I need him to give up five or more hits about 60 percent of the time. He has done it in all of his last eight starts: 8, 7, 8, 9, 6, 9, 7 and 5. His season average is 6.2 hits per start across 31 starts, so five hits is below what he normally allows. The matchup explains the number. Left-handed hitters are batting .307 with an .872 OPS against Lugo over 410 at-bats, and Chicago puts six lefties and a switch-hitter in front of him tonight. His pitches are getting hit hard across the board. The sinker carries a .430 xwOBA and the four-seamer a .408 xwOBA with a .424 batting average against it. Batters have a 42.8 percent hard-hit rate against him. He also isn't missing bats: he averages 4.2 strikeouts a start, so a lot of these at-bats end with the ball in play. Over the last five starts he has gone 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.2 and 5.0 innings and still allowed 7, 8, 8, 9 and 8 hits. Even a short outing has cleared this line. The risk is the Chicago lineup, which has gone cold everywhere except a couple of spots. Murakami is hitting .121 in September, Colson Montgomery .136 and Braden Montgomery .146. Kyle Teel, batting second, is 1 for 14 over the last week. Chicago hits .233 as a team against righties, and Kauffman is a pitcher's park with the wind blowing in from right tonight, which knocks down some of the hard contact from lefties. A very early hook could also leave him short. Still, his best recent home outing allowed eight hits in five innings, and his baseline is too far above 4.5 for me to pass at this price.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE TEELHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +146

I'm taking Kyle Teel under 0.5 hits at +146. At that price I need him to go hitless about 41 percent of the time. I think the real chance is higher. He has been held without a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. He is hitting .178 on the season and .173 against right-handers in 75 at-bats. He has 47 strikeouts in 107 at-bats. Over the last week he is 1 for 14, and last night he went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts. The lineup spot helps the under less than I'd like. Batting second gets him about 3.6 plate appearances a night. He also walks enough (17 in his short season, 0.5 per game) to take some of those away as chances for a hit. If you assume three to four real at-bats at his batting average against righties, a hitless night comes out in the mid-40s percent range. The price is paying me as though that were closer to 40. The strongest case against me is the opposing pitcher. Lugo allows a .307 average and an .872 OPS to left-handers, and that is a real problem for him. That split describes Lugo against lefties in general, though, and tells me nothing specific about Teel. Teel is 1 for 1 against Lugo in his career, which is too small a sample to count. He is also a rookie catcher with only 107 big league at-bats, so his true talent could be better than this line, and one blooper settles it. I'll take plus money on a hitter who fails to get a hit two out of three nights.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN HENDERSONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +128

I'm taking Logan Henderson under 14.5 outs at +128. At -168 the over is priced as if Milwaukee's starters were pitching a normal September. They aren't, and the Brewers have shown that for a week. They clinched the first-round bye on Tuesday. Jacob Misiorowski, their ace, was pulled after three innings and 44 pitches in Baltimore, and Pat Murphy said before the game that the short outing was planned. Dustin May lasted two innings last night before a long man took over. Today the club called up Lyon Richardson, who is expected to handle low-leverage innings while the Brewers manage starter workload. Henderson is their likely Game 2 starter in the Division Series. With the season ending Sunday, this is probably his last regular-season start, and his next outing that counts comes about eleven days from now. That's exactly the kind of start a club with the best record in baseball cuts short. His recent usage already sits right on this number. Across his last eight starts he recorded 15, 15, 21, 21, 18, 21, 19 and 18 outs, newest first. The two most recent were exactly five innings, at 87 and 95 pitches. He cleared both times, but only by getting the 15th out. One early hook, one long inning, or one decision to hand the sixth to a rested middle reliever cashes the under. Murphy has plenty of those relievers available, since Uribe, Ashby and Drohan have all been off for at least three days. The case against this is strong, and it's the reason my confidence stays modest. Henderson has gone over this line in eight straight starts. He's efficient, with 0.9 walks per start and a 1.06 first-inning ERA. At his usual pace he gets through six innings with room to spare if he's allowed around 90 pitches. Murphy has also said he wants Henderson fighting for outs rather than saving pitches, and Milwaukee still has the top overall seed to chase. If the plan is to let him stay sharp at full length, the over wins easily. I'm betting the plan is short, and at plus money I don't need to be right very often.

His recent usage already sits right on this number. Across his last eight starts he recorded 15, 15, 21, 21, 18, 21, 19 and 18 outs, newest first. The two most recent were exactly five innings, at 87 and 95 pitches. He cleared both times, but only by getting the 15th out. One early hook, one long inning, or one decision to hand the sixth to a rested middle reliever cashes the under. Murphy has plenty of those relievers available, since Uribe, Ashby and Drohan have all been off for at least three days.

The case against this is strong, and it's the reason my confidence stays modest. Henderson has gone over this line in eight straight starts. He's efficient, with 0.9 walks per start and a 1.06 first-inning ERA. At his usual pace he gets through six innings with room to spare if he's allowed around 90 pitches. Murphy has also said he wants Henderson fighting for outs rather than saving pitches, and Milwaukee still has the top overall seed to chase. If the plan is to let him stay sharp at full length, the over wins easily. I'm betting the plan is short, and at plus money I don't need to be right very often.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON MARSHH+R+RBI UNDER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +102

I'm taking Brandon Marsh under 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at +102. The over at -132 is paying for last night's 6 total, when Marsh homered off May and doubled off a debuting long reliever. I'm looking at the whole month instead. Marsh is hitting .128 with a .282 OPS over 39 September at-bats and is 5-for-31 over the last 15 days. The 6 from last night sits at the top of a 15-game run with zeros in 8 of those games. He bats seventh and gets about 3.8 plate appearances a night, so he doesn't get many chances to fall into a run or an RBI. The matchup is also tougher tonight. Henderson has held left-handed hitters to .174 with a .578 OPS over 213 at-bats. His changeup gets a 38.5% whiff rate, and the Phillies have never seen him, because Marsh and most of this lineup have no career plate appearances against him. Those are Henderson's numbers against all lefties, and they say nothing about how Marsh in particular handles that pitch. Still, it's a difficult first look for a hitter who strikes out in roughly 27% of his at-bats. A 15 mph wind blowing in from center also takes away some of the carry Citizens Bank Park usually gives. The case for the over is real. Marsh has a .741 OPS and 14 homers against right-handers this season. Henderson has given up 10 home runs to lefties, and his only weakness is fly balls that leave the park. One swing like last night's covers this line by itself. Philadelphia is also playing to clinch a spot, so everyone in the order will be pressing. Even so, taking plus money against a slumping seventh hitter facing the pitcher with the best numbers on the field tonight is a price I'll bet. I'm passing on the home run board. Schwarber at +300 and Bauers at +540 both have to hit into that wind, and I don't need the long shot.

GARY'S PICK

SONNY GRAYPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -130

I'm on Sonny Gray over 17.5 outs at -130, which means he has to finish six full innings. He has done that in 7 of his last 8 starts, with outs of 19, 18, 21, 15, 18, 21, 18 and 18. His pitch counts over that stretch ran from 83 to 102, so Boston is letting him work deep. Tonight should also be a kind night for pitchers. It's 56 degrees with a 13 mph wind blowing in from center, and that takes some carry away from anything hit in the air. The matchup fits him. Cleveland starts five left-handed hitters and three switch hitters. Lefties have hit .229 with a .665 OPS against Gray this season, and Cleveland as a team has a .702 OPS against right-handers. His sweeper is the pitch that gets him deep. He throws it 20% of the time, and hitters have missed on 41.3% of their swings and chased it 63.2% of the time out of the zone, with a .138 xwOBA. He saw this club once this year and gave up one run in six innings on May 30. Boston's bullpen gives Chad Tracy another reason to stay with his starter. Aroldis Chapman hasn't pitched since September 13. Erik Miller took the loss last night and has an 8.53 ERA this month. Alec Gamboa, Jovani Morán and Miller all pitched last night, and Gamboa threw 29 pitches. The biggest risk is how close his recent starts have been to this line. Four of those eight overs landed on exactly 18 outs, so one extra baserunner in the sixth could flip this. He has also walked 8 in his last three starts. Cleveland left 15 runners on base last night, which shows how deep they push counts. Boston has already clinched, and Gray is 36, took a planned rest break in late August and threw a season-high 102 pitches last time out. Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert and Tyron Guerrero are all rested, so Tracy has the arms to pull him early if he wants to. At -130 I still think the recent pattern and the conditions carry this.

GARY'S PICK

FOSTER GRIFFINPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +152

The board lists the over at -178, but the value is on the other side: Foster Griffin under 14.5 outs at +152. At that price I need him to fall short about 40% of the time. In eight starts since Cleveland traded for him, his outs have gone 12, 15, 18, 15, 15, 18, 7 and 12. That's three unders, and three more starts landed on exactly 15 outs, one out from cashing this ticket. He hasn't gotten past the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, and his September ERA is 9.49 over 12.1 innings. His cutter is his most-used pitch at 33%, and the quality of contact against it has gotten worse in each of his last three starts: xwOBA of .368, then .470, then .503. The plan around Cleveland points to a short night. The word is that Stephen Vogt will go to his bullpen quickly if Griffin runs into trouble in the fifth, and in a game this tight, with the Central on the line, I expect he will. Vogt also has a clear alternative. Joey Cantillo threw six scoreless innings in bulk relief on September 18 and has had five days off, and Matt Festa and Slade Cecconi are rested too. Boston's lineup has five right-handed hitters, and righties have a .732 OPS against Griffin compared with .644 for lefties. Ceddanne Rafaela (.801 OPS against lefties in 140 at-bats) and Jahmai Jones (.763 in 125 at-bats) are both in there. The case against this is real. Cleveland's top five relievers all pitched last night, and that may push Vogt to leave Griffin in longer. The cold air and the wind blowing in help any pitcher. Boston has scored just 2.4 runs a game over its last five, and Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony are both cold. Griffin comes in on seven days of rest and has a 2.05 ERA in the first inning this season. He has cleared this number in 5 of his last 8 starts, so this is a price play on how short his leash is. At +152, a quick hook only has to happen a bit more than one time in three for this to pay off.

GARY'S PICK

NOLAN MCLEANPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBNew York Mets· -160

I'm taking Nolan McLean under 2.5 earned runs at -160. That price implies about a 61.5% chance he allows two or fewer. Over his full season, he has done it in 22 of 30 starts, which is 73%. In his last eight starts he allowed 1, 5, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 5 earned runs, and he averages 2.0 per start. The line is sitting above what he usually allows, and I'm happy to take the extra margin. The matchup helps. Texas is hitting .234 with a .694 OPS against right-handed pitching and is 51-59 against right-handed starters. Joc Pederson is out, and the bottom of tonight's order is thin against righties: Nicky Lopez has a .666 OPS against them, Danny Jansen .664 and Evan Carter .666. Right-handed hitters have a .515 OPS off McLean this season. Five of tonight's nine Rangers bat right-handed, including Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford and Jake Burger. McLean has 189 strikeouts in 172.2 innings and a 6.5% barrel rate allowed. His curveball has a .191 xwOBA and a 53% chase rate, so he can get himself out of a jam when runners reach. Workload is part of this too. This is his last regular season start on a team out of the race. The club has said it is managing his innings, and he threw 82 pitches last time out. A shorter night gives him fewer innings in which to give up runs. The strongest case against this is the left-handed bats and his walks. Lefties have a .730 OPS and 13 homers against him. Seager, Nimmo, Lopez and Carter all bat left, and Seager has an .840 OPS in September. McLean has walked at least three batters in five of his last eight starts, and his September ERA is 4.24 over 17 innings. His worst start of the month was 5 earned runs at Yankee Stadium. A few walks and one ball in the air against a Texas team fighting for the division could push this over. Still, over a 30 start sample he stays at two or fewer far more often than -160 suggests, and I'll take it.

GARY'S PICK

CODY BRADFORDPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -158

I'm taking Cody Bradford over 1.5 earned runs at -158. For this to cash, he has to be charged with two runs. He has done that in six of his seven starts this season. After four scoreless innings on Aug. 5, his starts went 3, 2, 2, 3, 5 and 3 earned runs. Seven starts is a small sample, but the pattern is consistent, and the underlying numbers explain it. He has struck out 20 batters in 38.2 innings with a 1.50 WHIP. Opponents have a 37% hard-hit rate against him, and his ground-out to air-out ratio is 0.61. Hitters make contact, and a lot of that contact is in the air. Across his recent starts he allowed 14 scoring plays and only 4 were home runs. He gives up runs by allowing baserunners in bunches, and that makes two runs a low bar. The Mets have right-handed hitters who handle lefties. Mark Vientos has an .859 OPS against lefties in 105 at bats, and Bo Bichette has a .786 OPS against them. Right-handed hitters have a .751 OPS off Bradford. The short leash also works in my favor in one way. Texas will go to the bullpen quickly, and any runner Bradford leaves on base still counts against him if he scores. The strongest case against this is the same short leash. The outs line is 12.5, and his last three starts ended after 12, 12 and 13 outs. Jacob Latz, Jordan Montgomery and Trevor Williams are all rested, and Skip Schumaker has a division race to manage. If Bradford is pulled at the first sign of trouble, he has fewer chances to reach two runs. The Mets are a poor lineup against left-handers, with a .682 OPS, and they are 19-26 against left-handed starters. Juan Soto is 0 for 4 against Bradford in his career. Bradford's last outing was his best of the year: 4.1 scoreless innings in bulk relief against Boston, with his changeup getting a 33% whiff rate. Even so, a pitcher who allows this much contact reaches two runs more often than the 61% that -158 implies, and I'm betting the over.

GARY'S PICK

KETEL MARTEHITS UNDER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -144

I'm taking Ketel Marte under 1.5 hits at -144. That price needs this to land about 59% of the time. To go over, Marte needs a multi-hit night, and his season and his recent form both say that's the less likely result. Marte is a switch hitter, and tonight he faces a right-hander, Mason Adams. That means he hits left-handed, which is his weaker side this year: .230 with a .688 OPS in 405 at-bats against righties. He's hitting .304 with a .925 OPS against lefties, but that doesn't help him tonight. He isn't hot either. He's 4-for-20 over the last week and 12-for-52 over the last 15 days, with no home runs in that stretch. He averages 1.0 hits per game over 136 games. In his last 15 games he had two or more hits three times. Last night at this park he went 1-for-5 and was out on the ground three times. Batting second, he should get four or five trips to the plate. For a .230 hitter against righties, that usually ends with one hit or none. The risk is the park and the pitcher. Coors Field adds hits because the outfield is so big, and the total is sitting around 11 runs, so a fifth plate appearance is realistic. Adams has allowed 55.4% hard contact, and left-handed batters have hit .341 with a 1.022 OPS against him. That split comes from only 44 at-bats, so it describes Adams more than it describes Marte, but it's still the main reason this could go wrong. Marte has never faced Adams. At -144 I'm paying for his season-long weakness against right-handers and a stretch where he hasn't been making good contact, and I'm fine taking the under.

GARY'S PICK

CORBIN CARROLLH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -135

I'm taking Corbin Carroll under 2.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -135, which needs to hit about 57% of the time. Carroll needs three combined for the over. He averages 2.0 per game over 152 games and has cleared 2.5 in five of his last 15. My case starts with the matchup and where he's hitting. Carroll bats left-handed, and he's been very different against the two kinds of pitchers this year: .313 with a .959 OPS against lefties, and .206 with a .729 OPS in 383 at-bats against righties. Adams is a right-hander. Carroll's September is weak too, at .200 with a .652 OPS in 55 at-bats. He's also batting seventh tonight, and hitting that low in the order takes plate appearances away over nine innings. Fewer trips to the plate means fewer chances to stack hits, runs and RBIs. Last night he doubled in a run in the first inning and then made three straight outs. The biggest risk is Carroll's power. He has 22 home runs, and a solo homer alone counts as a hit, a run and an RBI, which is enough to cash the over. Adams has given up six home runs in 23 innings. Lefties have hit .341 with a 1.022 OPS off him in 44 at-bats, a small sample about the pitcher. Arenado and Moreno hit ahead of Carroll and both are hot, which could give him RBI chances, and Coors Field makes big innings more likely. I think those risks are part of why the under is priced at -135. The bet is on his weak side against righties, a lower spot in the order and a quiet month.

GARY'S PICK

GERRIT COLEPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -104

I'm taking Cole over 16.5 outs at -104, so I need him to get 17 outs, or 5.2 innings. At this price that only has to happen about 51% of the time. He has gone over this number in 6 of his last 8 starts (18, 13, 21, 16, 18, 18, 18, 21, newest first) and averages 17.3 outs across 21 starts. One of the two misses was 16 outs, a single out short. The only start that really fell apart was the Mets game. He gets there by staying efficient, and he hasn't needed a big pitch count to do it. He threw 90 pitches for 18 outs at Arizona and 84 pitches for 21 outs at San Diego. He has walked 5 hitters in his last 8 starts and none in 4 of them, so he isn't wasting pitches on free passes. The lineup in front of him helps too. Tampa Bay sat Yandy Diaz, Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson and Nick Fortes the day after clinching. The bottom three tonight are Ryan Vilade (.699 OPS against righties), Cedric Mullins (.202) and Jorge Mateo (.100 in September). Junior Caminero and Jonny DeLuca are a combined 0-for-10 against him in their careers. It's a small sample, but it doesn't hurt. The bullpen also pushes Boone to let him work. David Bednar, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber and Michael Fulmer all pitched Tuesday. Yarbrough has never worked the day after a 25-pitch outing this year, and he threw 23 yesterday. Clarke Schmidt was pulled from warmups Sunday with biceps cramping. Boone has every reason to let Cole cover the middle innings. The biggest risk is that this is a tune-up. Boone has said Cole should expect a Wild Card start on normal rest, and he hasn't gone past 93 pitches in any of his last 8 starts. A short, planned outing is possible. The home run problem is also real: 9 homers allowed over his last 28.2 innings, a 3.93 ERA in the Bronx and a 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed. A crooked number in the fourth could end his night early, the way it did against the Mets. At a price this close to even, I'll back his length.

GARY'S PICK

JAZZ CHISHOLM JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -137

This is Chisholm over 0.5 total bases at -137. I need one hit of any kind, and the price asks for about 58%. He bats sixth and averages 3.9 trips to the plate a game. He has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games and averages 1.4 total bases over 134 games. Against right-handers he hits .237 with a .742 OPS and 14 of his 19 homers. With three or four at-bats at that average, one hit lands a little more often than the price implies. The matchup is Mason Englert. He hasn't pitched in a big-league game since July 17 and was called up this morning for a spot start. Left-handed hitters have a .267 average and .820 OPS against him this season, with 4 homers in 60 at-bats. That line is Englert's record against lefties as a group, not anything specific to Chisholm. His 14.7% barrel rate allowed is high for a starter, and he gave up 5 home runs over 10.2 innings in his last two MLB starts. Two of those came from a left-handed hitter, Wilyer Abreu, both to right-center. The short 314-foot porch in right plays to Chisholm's pull side. The 15 mph wind blows in from left, so it does less to the right side. And he looked fine in his first game back Tuesday: a single, a walk and four trips to the plate. The case against is his contact rate. He has 154 strikeouts in 464 at-bats this year, and his .233 average leaves little margin on a single-hit ticket. He is 0-for-3 in his career against Englert. That's too small a sample to settle anything, and it's still not in my favor. Englert's changeup is a real pitch, with a .251 xwOBA allowed and a 56.9% chase rate. The late innings are a concern too. Tampa Bay's fresher arms include Steven Matz, and if Chisholm sees a lefty late, his .654 OPS against left-handers comes into play. He is also only one game back from the injured list, so his timing is unproven. I'm taking it because the starter matchup and the park give him enough edge over three trips against Englert to justify -137.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN GUSTOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -160

I'm on Ryan Gusto under 15.5 outs at -160. To go over, he has to record 16 outs, which means getting an out in the sixth inning. He hasn't worked that way this year. In his last eight starts he recorded 13, 18, 14, 13, 17, 12, 14 and 12 outs, so he cleared 15.5 twice. Across 17 starts he averages 12.9 outs, about 4.1 innings, and his 82.2 innings over those starts work out to under five a start. Even in August, when his ERA was 1.88, he went 4.0, 5.2 and 4.1 innings. Miami has used him as a two-times-through arm, and his pitch counts in the last eight starts were 86, 89, 100, 69, 89, 62, 70 and 60. The matchup doesn't help him go longer. This lineup got 10 hits and 5 earned runs off him in 4.2 innings on September 5, and that start cost him 100 pitches. He also gave up 8 hits and 2 home runs in 4.1 innings at Arizona last time out. Chicago bats .247 with a .760 OPS against right-handers and scores 5.3 runs a game. Crow-Armstrong hits right-handers at a .979 OPS, so the top of the order will make him work. The strongest case against me is last night. Miami used eight relievers over 12 innings, and McCullough has reason to let Gusto go deep if he's efficient. The 12 mph wind blowing in could also keep a few fly balls in the park and save him pitches, and the Cubs are without Bregman. Still, no Miami reliever threw more than 21 pitches yesterday, and none has pitched both of the last two days, so the pen can cover the middle innings. A manager who uses a scheduled starter for an eighth-inning tie isn't going to stretch a fifth starter through the Cubs a third time to save his relievers. At -160 the price is steep. The under has cashed in six of his last eight starts, and I expect this to be the seventh.

GARY'S PICK

JAKOB MARSEEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -151

I'm taking Jakob Marsee over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -151. This cashes if he gets one hit, scores once or drives in one run. He's the hottest bat in this Miami lineup. He's hitting .369 with a 1.052 OPS in September, went 18 for 43 over the last 15 days and 7 for 16 over the last week. The over has hit in 11 of his last 15 games, and the misses were zeros rather than near misses. His scores in that stretch include a 5, two 6s and an 8. He came off the bench last night and still had a single, a run and an RBI in three at-bats. The matchup fits him. Kevin Gausman has a 6.75 ERA in 24 innings at Wrigley. Runners are 19 for 22 stealing against him, and Marsee has 23 steals this year, so any time he reaches first he has a real chance to score. Marsee is a left-handed hitter with a .348 OBP and 77 walks. That means a walk and a stolen base can still get him a run without a hit. The strongest evidence against me starts with where he bats. He's sixth tonight, which costs him a plate appearance compared with leading off, and he's only 1 for 5 in his career against Gausman. He also hits right-handers at a .721 OPS, below his current form, and Gausman's splitter gets a whiff on 41.6% of swings. With the wind blowing in, I also expect a lower-scoring game with fewer runs to go around. I passed on Heriberto Hernandez at -169 because he's hitting .216 with a .514 OPS over the last 15 days and is 0 for 3 against Gausman. Marsee has the better form and the cheaper price, so I'm betting that his current run carries into one more game.

GARY'S PICK

JOSH SMITHH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -148

Smith can finish with one combined hit, run and RBI and still cash this under. Two or more loses. He has stayed below this line in 11 of his last 15 games, including each of his last five, and enters tonight 1 for 17 over the last seven days. His larger split against right handed pitching is also modest: a .229 average and .699 OPS across 170 at bats. He is batting second, though his season role has produced only 3.2 plate appearances and 1.1 combined hits, runs and RBIs per game across 73 games. The strongest concern is Trey Gibson. Gibson owns a 7.36 ERA, a 1.91 WHIP and 25 walks in 33 innings, so Smith could reach base without hitting and benefit from traffic behind him. Gibson has also been especially vulnerable to left handed hitters, who have a .304 average against him across 79 at bats. Smith's lineup position gives him more opportunities than most Toronto hitters. I still prefer the established lack of production from Smith at this number, even against a volatile starter.

GARY'S PICK

COBY MAYOH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -136

Mayo can contribute one combined hit, run and RBI and still cash this under. He has stayed below the line in nine of his last 15 games and is 0 for 8 through the first two games of this series. The more useful matchup split covers 254 at bats against right handed pitching. Mayo has hit .177 with a .571 OPS in those opportunities, compared with a 1.097 OPS against left handed pitching. Toronto starts right hander CJ Van Eyk and has several rested right handed relievers available behind him. The strongest contrary evidence is Mayo's role and Van Eyk's limited major league record. Mayo bats cleanup, averages 3.6 plate appearances per game and has produced 24 home runs with 63 RBIs this season. Van Eyk has thrown only 6.2 major league innings this year, allowing a 1.95 WHIP with just one strikeout, so his current numbers provide very little certainty. Alonso and Henderson batting ahead of Mayo also create RBI chances. The price leaves a narrow edge, driven mainly by Mayo's substantial right handed pitching split and his recent lack of production.

GARY'S PICK

WALBERT URENAK'S OVER 4.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -130

I am taking Urena over 4.5 strikeouts at -130. He has cleared this line in five of his last eight starts, averaging 5.6 strikeouts in that span, and he has recorded 20 across 21 innings in his last three. Tonight's Athletics lineup has struck out in 21 percent of its season plate appearances. Urena also has enough swing and miss in his changeup and sweeper to finish hitters, with whiff rates of 38.2 percent and 34.5 percent, respectively. He is a confirmed starter with 26 starts this season, and he has completed at least six innings in each of his last four. The strongest concern is that Oakland's projected lineup does not carry an extreme strikeout rate, while Urena has averaged only 5.3 strikeouts per start across his full rookie season. He has finished with four or fewer in three of his last eight, and his 67 walks in 144 1/3 innings can still create inefficient outings. The recent combination of improved control, length and strikeout production gives me enough support to lay -130 on five or more.

GARY'S PICK

LAWRENCE BUTLERWALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -140

I am taking Butler under 0.5 walks at -140. He has gone without a walk in 11 of his last 15 games, and his season rate is 0.4 walks per game across 144 appearances. Urena has issued only three walks over his last four starts, a 28 inning stretch in which he has completed at least six innings every time. Butler is batting second and averages 3.6 plate appearances per game, so the opportunity count is clear, but his recent results and Urena's sharper control support a walkless night. The strongest contrary evidence is Urena's full season control record. He has issued 67 walks in 144 1/3 innings and averages 2.5 per start, including a five walk outing within his last eight. Butler also owns 60 walks in 451 at bats and has drawn at least one in four of his last 15 games, with two multiwalk performances in that sample. Those numbers keep my conviction modest at this price, though the under remains my preferred side based on Urena's current command.

GARY'S PICK

ANDY PAGESTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -165

I’m taking Andy Pages over 0.5 total bases at the offered price of minus 165. Pages has produced at least one total base in 10 of his last 15 games, and his season split against left handed pitching is the central matchup support. He is batting .289 with a .906 OPS and eight home runs across 142 at bats against lefties. Robbie Ray has a 4.36 road ERA, and he has allowed 13 earned runs with 10 walks across his last three starts. Pages bats seventh, but the strength of the Dodgers lineup still gives him a reasonable path to four plate appearances. The strongest contrary evidence is Pages’ fresh return from the injured list. He went hitless in two official at bats Tuesday, and his current post injury role has only one game of evidence despite a 128 game season sample. Ray has also held right handed hitters to a .213 average this season. The price demands a high success rate, but Pages’ established production against left handed pitching supports paying it for a one base line.

GARY'S PICK

DUSTIN HARRISTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -135

I’m taking Dustin Harris over 0.5 total bases at the offered price of minus 135. This requires one hit of any kind. Harris is batting second, which gives him a strong chance at four plate appearances, and he has recorded at least one total base in 11 of his last 14 games. He is batting .303 with a .756 OPS across 99 at bats against right handed pitching. His major league body of work is still limited to 38 games, so I am treating the recent production as encouraging rather than fully established. The strongest contrary evidence is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He has limited left handed hitters to a .171 average and a .517 OPS across 340 at bats, while allowing four hits total over his last two starts. Yamamoto also owns a 1.35 ERA in three starts against San Diego this season. Harris must solve the best starting pitcher on this board, but his lineup position and sustained contact production make the one base threshold playable at this price.

GARY'S PICK

GEORGE KIRBYPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -130

I'm taking George Kirby over 4.5 hits allowed at -130. Kirby has allowed five or more hits in seven of his last eight starts. Over 29 starts this season he averages 6.6 hits allowed. Left-handed hitters are batting .284 against him and right-handed hitters .288, so he gives up contact to both sides. The Astros in tonight's lineup also know him well. The eight with career at-bats against him are a combined 34-for-126 (.270), led by Isaac Paredes at 8-for-19 and Jose Altuve at 6-for-27. The top four in Houston's order are hot. Over the past week Altuve is 10-for-25, Yordan Alvarez 9-for-22, Paredes 7-for-20 and Yainer Diaz 8-for-22. His outs line is 17.5 with the over at -178, so the market expects about six innings. That should give the top of the order three trips each. The case against is his home park. Kirby has a 3.27 ERA in 15 home starts. Three of his last eight starts were at home, and he allowed 7, 6 and 4 hits in them, so one of the three stayed under this line. The bottom of Houston's order is weak tonight. Lucas Spence is hitting .162 in 37 at-bats, Cam Smith is 1-for-18 over the past week, and Nick Allen starts at shortstop with Jeremy Peña out. An early exit is also possible: he recorded fewer than 15 outs in three of his last eight starts. I still want five hits against a pitcher who has allowed at least that many in almost every recent start, and at -130 I'll pay it.

GARY'S PICK

LAZARO MONTESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -139

I'm taking Lazaro Montes over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -139. Montes is a left-handed rookie with 42 major league at-bats, and he bats eighth tonight. His results so far split by the pitcher's hand. Against right-handers he is 8-for-30 with a 1.053 OPS, and all four of his home runs came against them. Against lefties he is 0-for-12. Tonight he starts against right-hander Ethan Pecko, whose split runs the same way. Left-handed hitters have a .791 OPS and all five of his home runs allowed in 63 at-bats, while right-handed hitters have a .487 OPS. This prop pays on a hit, a run or an RBI. One swing like the ones he has already hit against right-handers covers it. So does a single followed by a hit from the top of Seattle's order. The evidence against him is heavy, and I'm pricing it in. He has cleared this line in only 6 of his last 15 games. He has 21 strikeouts in 42 at-bats, and he is 1-for-14 over the last week with six strikeouts in his last three games. Hitting eighth, he averages 2.7 plate appearances a game. Pecko is unlikely to pitch deep, so Houston's rested lefties, Josh Hader and Bryan King, could face him late. Seattle also has right-handed bench bats in Victor Robles and Taylor Ward if a lefty comes in. My conviction here is smaller, but he opens the game in the one matchup where he has produced.

Research

1000

FANTASY USAGEat IND
Dalton Schultz
CONSIDER ADD: Schultz is a conditional PPR tight-end add despite a much quieter Week 3 forecast Why now: Schultz has 22 targets, 16 receptions and 175 yards through two completed games, although he has not scored. The Week 3 provider estimate is more restrained at 5.8 targets and 9.5 PPR points, so the recent production supports a roster claim if available rather than an automatic lineup promotion. Who it fits: PPR or half-PPR managers needing a tight end or bench flex option, if he is available in their league. The risk: This is only a two-game sample, and the Week 3 estimate is just 5.3 points in standard scoring. A scheduled game does not confirm his playing time. Watch next: His Week 3 targets and receptions against Indianapolis; another heavily targeted game would strengthen the case for using him. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat PHI
Logan Henderson
START: Henderson's elite ratios carry a Philly test he's been passing Why now: Henderson owns a 2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 10.32 K/9 over 93.1 innings this season, and his last five starts were even sharper: 2.10 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 32 K in 30 innings. Philadelphia's order (from 9/22, today not yet posted) has real pop at the top with Schwarber (.861 OPS) and Harper (.870), but his recent run has held up against good lineups. Who it fits: Strikeout- and ratio-needy rosters in points or category leagues looking for a start that pairs high K upside with low walk/hit risk. The risk: Schwarber and Harper give Philadelphia legitimate power at the top of the order, and any five-start hot streak carries regression risk. Watch next: Confirmation of today's Phillies lineup, which has not posted yet. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 06:40 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs WSH
Framber Valdez
START: Valdez's rebound form lines up against a top-heavy Nationals order Why now: Valdez's season ERA sits at 4.06, but his last five starts show a 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 18 K over 30 innings. Today's Washington order (sourced from 9/22, not yet confirmed) is led by James Wood (.897 OPS) and CJ Abrams (.835) but includes lighter bats further down, such as Vivas (.662) and Nunez (.529). Who it fits: Rostered or streamed SPs in category and points formats looking for ratio help against a lineup with soft lower-order spots. The risk: Wood and Abrams can do damage at the top, and his season ERA still lags his recent form. Watch next: Whether Washington's confirmed lineup today keeps Wood and Abrams in the same spots. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 01:10 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Adonai Mitchell
CONSIDER ADD: Mitchell’s 15 early targets make him a conditional PPR bench addition Why now: Mitchell has drawn 15 targets in two games, including 12 in Week 2, while posting 123 yards without a touchdown. The provider projects 6.1 targets and 10.7 PPR points for Week 3; that target evidence is more actionable for a bench claim than his 25.1% aggregate roster rate is universal availability. Who it fits: PPR managers in three-receiver or deeper leagues who need a bench receiver or flex option. The risk: He has only nine catches on those 15 targets and no touchdown, and a team game does not establish that he will start. Watch next: Mitchell’s Week 3 target total against Detroit. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat BAL
Nathan Lukes
START: Lukes moves to leadoff today with a favorable handedness matchup Why now: Toronto's confirmed lineup has Lukes batting leadoff today, up from the 3-hole on 9/21, facing right-hander Chris Bassitt. His season splits show a real handedness gap: .752 OPS vs RHP versus .530 vs LHP. Who it fits: Runs- and average-driven rosters in standard or points leagues wanting extra plate appearances at the top of an order. The risk: Toronto has a second game today that has not posted a lineup yet, so this call only covers the first game; don't assume Lukes plays both ends of a doubleheader. Watch next: Whether the leadoff spot holds through first pitch and whether Lukes starts the nightcap once that lineup posts. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 01:35 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
C.J. Stroud
CONSIDER ADD: Stroud is a conditional Superflex add on sustained passing volume Why now: Stroud has attempted 93 passes and thrown for 627 yards in two games, with no interceptions, but only two passing touchdowns. The Week 3 provider estimate is 16.1 points, making him a depth-QB option rather than a reason to displace a proven one-quarterback starter. Who it fits: Two-QB and Superflex managers who need a usable second starter, if he is available. The risk: The sample is two games, and he lost two fumbles in Week 1. His scheduled Week 3 game does not confirm that he will start. Watch next: Confirmation of his Week 3 starting status and his touchdown production against Indianapolis. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSat PHI
William Contreras
WATCH: Contreras is riding a 17-RBI stretch into an unconfirmed Brewers lineup Why now: Over his last 10 games Contreras is 12-for-39 with 4 HR and 17 RBI, well above his .272/.341/.422 season line. Today's Milwaukee-Philadelphia lineup hasn't posted; he batted cleanup on 9/22. Opposing probable Aaron Nola has been sharp lately too, posting a 1.72 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last five starts. Who it fits: Category and points managers at catcher, where the position's shallow pool makes a hot streak more valuable than the same line at a deeper spot. The risk: Nola's recent form cuts against the matchup, and Milwaukee's lineup for today is not yet confirmed. Watch next: Milwaukee's posted lineup and batting order before first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 23, 06:40 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEvs CAR
Quinshon Judkins
HOLD: Keep Judkins through the low-efficiency start rather than reacting to the missing touchdowns Why now: Judkins has received exactly 12 carries in each of his first two games and added seven receptions, but has only 54 rushing yards and no touchdown. The Week 3 estimate still calls for 16.5 carries and 13.7 PPR points, which makes the workload worth retaining while the production catches up or fails to. Who it fits: Managers who roster Judkins and need running-back depth, especially in reception formats. The risk: The first two games produced only 27 rushing yards per game and no rushing touchdown, so the projected workload is not a guarantee of a rebound. Watch next: His Week 3 rushing attempts, receiving targets and red-zone results against Carolina. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs LV
Alvin Kamara
SIT: Keep Kamara on the bench if you have a stronger Week 3 RB or flex option Why now: Kamara’s only supplied 2026 game produced nine carries for 15 yards and five catches for seven yards. The Week 3 provider estimate is 7.6 standard, 8.6 half-PPR and 9.6 PPR points, leaving little evidence for a lineup bet before the September 27 kickoff. Who it fits: Managers choosing between Kamara and another viable running back or flex play this week. The risk: The current sample is only one game, and five targets provide some reception-format floor. Watch next: His Week 3 carry, target and yardage totals against Las Vegas. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 27, 04:25 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs STL
Brandon Lowe
WATCH: Lowe's power surge runs into a tough platoon matchup Why now: Lowe has 4 HR and 10 RBI over his last 10 games, but probable Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore throws left-handed, and Lowe carries just a .635 OPS against lefties this season versus .915 against righties. Today's Pittsburgh lineup hasn't posted; he batted second on 9/22. Who it fits: Power-category rosters deciding whether to trust a same-handed-disadvantage matchup against a struggling arm. The risk: Liberatore has been rough lately (7.03 ERA, 1.73 WHIP over his last five starts), which could offset the platoon disadvantage; today's lineup is unconfirmed. Watch next: Pittsburgh's confirmed lineup and batting order before first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 23, 06:40 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY PICKUPSat ATL
Andrew Abbott
SIT: Abbott has allowed a 9.15 ERA over his last five starts Why now: Abbott has given up 20 earned runs in 19.2 innings (9.15 ERA, 1.98 WHIP) across his last five outings, well below an already middling 4.70 season ERA. Atlanta's order (from 9/22, today not yet posted) is fronted by Acuna Jr. (.814 OPS), Baldwin (.817) and Olson (.828). Who it fits: Category and points rosters deciding whether to bench a rostered starter carrying real ratio risk tonight. The risk: The sample is just five starts, and one outing (9/11) was a 2-inning blowup that may be skewing the average more than his true form. Watch next: Whether Atlanta's confirmed lineup today keeps the same top-of-order bats. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 07:15 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat WSH
Sam Darnold
SIT: Do not start Darnold solely on the Week 3 projection Why now: Darnold’s only supplied 2026 appearance contains two pass attempts, one completion and 13 yards. Although the provider forecasts 15.8 points for Week 3, the scheduled Seattle game does not confirm he will start, making him too uncertain for a lineup before the September 27 kickoff. Who it fits: Managers considering Darnold as an emergency one-quarterback or Superflex streamer. The risk: The Week 3 forecast projects 246.9 passing yards and 1.65 passing touchdowns, so confirmed starting news would materially alter the call. Watch next: Official confirmation that Darnold will start against Washington before kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 27, 01:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat BUF
Oronde Gadsden
SIT: Gadsden’s touchdown is not enough volume to stream at tight end Why now: Gadsden has four targets, four receptions and 50 yards across two games; his Week 2 touchdown came on two targets. The Week 3 provider estimate is only 4.8 targets and 8.7 PPR points, and the scheduled Chargers game does not establish his role. Who it fits: Managers considering Gadsden as a tight-end streamer or desperation flex before the September 27 kickoff. The risk: A touchdown in Week 2 and a reception-format projection above standard scoring leave room for a useful result if his opportunity rises. Watch next: His Week 3 target total against Buffalo. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 27, 01:00 PM ET.
FANTASY PICKUPSvs TB
Gerrit Cole
HOLD: Cole's ratios are strong on paper but he's been homer-prone lately Why now: Cole's season line (3.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 123 K in 121.1 IP) is excellent, but his last five starts show 9 home runs allowed in 28.2 innings (5.34 ERA). Today's Tampa Bay order includes Junior Caminero (.886 OPS, 41 HR) and Yandy Diaz (.802 OPS). Who it fits: Ratio-sensitive category managers deciding whether to keep auto-starting him without checking recent contact quality. The risk: He remains a clear top-of-rotation arm by season numbers, and a five-start homer spike can be batted-ball luck rather than a real decline. Watch next: Whether the home run rate over his next couple of starts trends back toward his season mark. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET.
PASS RUSHHOU @ IND
IND: 1 sacks taken per game to HOU's 3.5
HOU is at 3.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 2.58 over 17 games and IND at 2.07 over 17 games.
RED ZONEARI @ SF
SF: 87.5% red-zone scoring rate to ARI's 50%
ARI is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; SF is at 87.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 54.1% over 17 games and SF at 65.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 9.5 yards per pass attempt to ARI's 5
ARI is at 5 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; SF is at 9.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 5.61 over 17 games and SF at 6.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DAL
DAL: 68.2% third-down conversion rate to BAL's 38.9%
BAL is at 38.9% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DAL is at 68.2% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 40.9% over 17 games and DAL at 41.1% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
MIN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to TB's 0%
MIN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; TB is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and TB at 44.8% over 17 games.
TRENCHESBAL @ DAL
BAL: 155 rushing yards per game to DAL's 67.5
Baltimore is running for 155 yards a game, almost identical to last year's 156.6, while Dallas's ground game has fallen from 125.6 last season to just 67.5 through two games. Baltimore looks like the same run-heavy team it's been for a full year, not a two game spike. Dallas's drop is the bigger story here, and whether it's a change in game plan or tough opponents faced early matters for how much it holds. If Dallas can't run consistently, Baltimore's ball control approach becomes a bigger factor in this one.
TRENCHESKC @ MIA
KC: 186 rushing yards per game to MIA's 88
Kansas City is running for 98 more yards a game than Miami right now, up from last season's 106.6 mark, while Miami's ground game has dropped from 120.2 to 88. Two games is a small sample for a rushing number, but Kansas City's jump matches an offense that struggled to run consistently a year ago. If Kansas City keeps this rushing success up, it opens up play action and keeps Miami's defense from selling out against the pass.
TRENCHESATL @ GB
ATL: 138.5 rushing yards per game to GB's 64.5
Atlanta is running for 74 more yards a game than Green Bay through two weeks, up from last season's 125.8 mark, while Green Bay's ground game has dropped from 119.8 to 64.5. That's two games each, too small to call it a full identity shift, though it fits a Packers team that leaned on the run heavily last year. If Atlanta keeps controlling the ground game, it can shorten the game and pin Green Bay into obvious passing downs.
RED ZONEKC @ MIA
KC: 60% red-zone scoring rate to MIA's 20%
KC is at 60% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; MIA is at 20% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 57.6% over 17 games and MIA at 56.3% over 17 games.
PASS RUSHKC @ MIA
KC: 2 sacks taken per game to MIA's 4.5
KC is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; MIA is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 2.94 over 17 games and MIA at 2.92 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHLV @ NO
LV: 2.5 sack yards lost per game to NO's 25.5
Vegas has barely been touched, giving up just 2.5 sack yards a game while New Orleans is bleeding 25.5, a flip from last season when Vegas allowed 29 and the Saints only 18.7. It is two games, so a leaky Saints line facing more pass rush could close that gap fast. If it holds, Vegas can dictate tempo by staying ahead of schedule while New Orleans scrambles in protection, which changes how comfortable each offense can play early downs.
PACE & SCRIPTMIN @ TB
MIN: 12.5 points allowed per game to TB's 28
MIN is at 12.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; TB is at 28 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 19.6 over 17 games and TB at 24.2 over 17 games.
TRENCHESPHI @ CHI
CHI: 212.5 rushing yards per game to PHI's 112.5
Chicago is running for 212.5 yards a game, way up from last season's 144.5, while Philadelphia sits at 112.5, close to its 116.9 mark from a year ago. Two games is early, but a jump that size suggests Chicago wants to build its offense around the run right now. If that continues, Philadelphia's front has to load the box, which can open lanes for Chicago's play action passing game.
PASS RUSHLV @ NO
LV: 1 sacks taken per game to NO's 4
New Orleans is getting sacked four times a game while Vegas has allowed just one, a reversal from last season when Vegas gave up four sacks a game and the Saints just three. It is only two games, thin enough to shift once defenses adjust. If it holds, expect New Orleans to lean on quick, short throws to avoid pressure while Vegas plays comfortable, clean pocket football.
RED ZONENE @ JAX
JAX: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 33.3%
Jacksonville is scoring on 75% of its red zone trips, up from 61.8% last season, while New England has dropped from 57.1% to just 33.3% through two games. Red zone rate swings hard on small samples since it's only a handful of trips each game. Jacksonville looks like it's in a hot stretch, New England in a slump, and both numbers are candidates to drift back toward last year's marks. Expect these gaps to narrow before trusting either extreme.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 57.1% third-down conversion rate to LAC's 31.8%
LAC is at 31.8% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; BUF is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 45.8% over 17 games and BUF at 44.8% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 271.5 team passing yards per game to MIA's 183.5
Kansas City is out throwing Miami by 88 yards a game, up from last season's 214.1 mark, while Miami's passing output is actually close to last year's 180.5 at 183.5. Two games is a short sample, and Kansas City's rise lines up with the rushing gap between these two teams as well. Since Miami's number hasn't moved much from last season, the bigger change here is on Kansas City's side of the ball, which points to a Chiefs offense finding more balance early.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 44.8% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 20%
Cincinnati is converting 44.8% of third downs, in line with last season's 43.4%, while Pittsburgh has cratered from 40% to 20% over two games. Third down rate is a swingy stat that moves fast on a small sample, and Pittsburgh's number is the one built on almost nothing. Cincinnati's mark looks stable and repeatable, Pittsburgh's early dip looks fragile. If Pittsburgh keeps stalling on third down, it should show up in time of possession and scoring too.
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ GB
GB: 21 points per game to ATL's 8
ATL is at 8 points per game over 2 games; GB is at 21 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 20.8 over 17 games and GB at 23 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 24 first downs per game to MIA's 13
KC is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; MIA is at 13 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 19.8 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSATL @ GB
GB: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to ATL's 2.5
ATL is at 2.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; GB is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 0.47 over 17 games and GB at 0.41 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU: 285.5 team passing yards per game to IND's 179.5
Houston is throwing for 106 more yards a game than Indianapolis right now, up from last season's 218.1 mark, while Indianapolis's passing offense has dropped from 227.8 to 179.5. That's two games for each team, and Houston's rise picks up where a productive passing attack left off last year. If Houston keeps throwing at this rate, it leans this matchup toward Houston controlling the game through the air rather than the ground.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 312.5 team passing yards per game to CLE's 204
Carolina is throwing for 312.5 yards a game, way up from last season's 179.3, while Cleveland's passing output is at 204, actually higher than its 165.2 mark from a year ago. Two games is a small sample, and Cleveland's own number moving up while still trailing by 108.5 yards suggests Carolina's rise is a bigger driver here than Cleveland getting worse. If Carolina keeps throwing this well, it changes how much a defense can lean on the run to slow this offense down.
RED ZONEMIN @ TB
MIN: 80% red-zone scoring rate to TB's 37.5%
Minnesota is scoring on 80% of its red zone trips, well above last season's 56.9%, while Tampa Bay has dropped from 54% to 37.5% through two games. Red zone rate is built on just a handful of trips a game, so a two game sample swings hard in either direction. Minnesota's number looks like an early hot streak more than a new identity, and some pullback toward last year's mark is likely. Tampa Bay's dip changes how a bettor should weigh point totals once the ball reaches the red zone.
RED ZONEHOU @ IND
IND: 83.3% red-zone scoring rate to HOU's 44.4%
Indianapolis is scoring on 83.3% of its red zone trips to Houston's 44.4%, a jump from last season's 65.2% for Indianapolis and roughly in line with Houston's 46.3% mark. Two games is a small sample for a rate like this, and an 83.3% red zone number rarely sustains over a full season. Houston's number sits close to its usual level, so the bigger swing to watch is whether Indianapolis keeps finishing drives at this rate as the schedule moves on.
TURNOVERSATL @ GB
GB: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to ATL's 3.5
ATL is at 3.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; GB is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 1.06 over 17 games and GB at 0.76 over 17 games.
RED ZONECAR @ CLE
CAR: 70% red-zone scoring rate to CLE's 20%
Carolina is scoring on 70% of its red zone trips to Cleveland's 20%, a 50 point gap that's much wider than last season when Carolina sat at 53.3% and Cleveland at 52.6%. Both marks come from two games, and red zone rate can swing hard on a handful of trips, so a jump this big and a drop this steep are both likely to move back toward last year's range. Until the sample grows, this is more about Carolina finishing drives well early than a defense that's suddenly broken in the red zone.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 283 team passing yards per game to LAC's 185
Buffalo is out passing the Chargers by 98 yards a game so far, up from last season's 216.6 mark, while LA's passing numbers have dropped from 212.2 to 185. Two games is a short look, and Buffalo scoring at a high rate can pad the pass yardage total. If Buffalo keeps pushing this much volume through the air, it favors game scripts where LA has to play catch up and throw more itself.
PACE & SCRIPTLAC @ BUF
BUF: 38.5 points per game to LAC's 14
LAC is at 14 points per game over 2 games; BUF is at 38.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 21.6 over 17 games and BUF at 28.3 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 7.2 yards per play to LAC's 5.15
Buffalo is gaining 7.2 yards a play to the Chargers' 5.15, a gap that lines up with last season too, when Buffalo sat at 5.94 and LA at 5.19. Buffalo's edge shows up in explosive plays, 7 gains of 20 plus yards in its last game including a 43-yard touchdown pass to Joshua Palmer and a 35-yard run from James Cook, while LA had just one explosive play, Justin Herbert's 53-yard completion to Tre' Harris. Two games is still a short sample, but this matches a real season-long trend rather than a one-game outlier. A bettor can weigh this as Buffalo's offense creating chunk plays at a level LA's defense hasn't limited, which matters for totals and pace.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 305.5 team passing yards per game to LV's 204
New Orleans is throwing for 305.5 yards a game, well above last year's 219.3, while Las Vegas has climbed from 167.7 to 204. Both offenses are throwing more than they did last season, and New Orleans's jump is the larger one over this two game stretch. A passing number this far above a team's own history usually cools some as opponents adjust and the sample grows. If New Orleans keeps leaning pass-heavy at this rate, it changes how a bettor should read pace and totals in its games.
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ CLE
CAR: 35.5 points per game to CLE's 16.5
CAR is at 35.5 points per game over 2 games; CLE is at 16.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 18.3 over 17 games and CLE at 16.4 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSARI @ SF
SF: 6.85 yards per play to ARI's 4.35
San Francisco is averaging 6.85 yards a play, up from 5.49 last season, while Arizona has fallen from 5.18 to 4.35 through two games. That's a two game window, and yards per play can swing depending on who's been faced early. San Francisco's climb lines up with a real per-play jump from last year, not just a one game outlier. If that efficiency gap holds, it points to San Francisco controlling tempo and field position in this matchup.
TURNOVERSMIN @ TB
MIN: 0 fumbles lost per game to TB's 2
MIN is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; TB is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 0.53 over 17 games and TB at 0.29 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSMIN @ TB
MIN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TB's 2.5
MIN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; TB is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 1.76 over 17 games and TB at 0.94 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NE's 2.5
NE is at 2.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; JAX is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 0.94 over 17 games and JAX at 1.06 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 15 points allowed per game to DET's 35.5
NYJ is at 15 points allowed per game over 2 games; DET is at 35.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 29.6 over 17 games and DET at 24.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 32 points per game to MIA's 13
KC is at 32 points per game over 2 games; MIA is at 13 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 21.3 over 17 games and MIA at 20.4 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTTEN @ NYG
NYG: 32:03 time of possession per game to TEN's 22:25
TEN is at 22:25 time of possession per game over 2 games; NYG is at 32:03 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 29:08 over 17 games and NYG at 30:58 over 17 games.
FANTASY PICKUPSat DET
Richard Lovelady
WATCH: Lovelady's 'probable start' looks like a bullpen-game opener Why now: Despite a probable-starter tag, Lovelady has made just 5 starts in 36 appearances this season, with 4 saves and 10 holds mixed in. His last three outings covered a combined 2.1 innings, and today's role is listed as an unconfirmed opener-or-bulk assignment. Who it fits: Saves/holds category rosters who already carry him for that role, and streamers who might mistake the probable tag for a full start. The risk: If he ends up throwing extended innings against Detroit's confirmed lineup (Greene, Dingler, Torkelson), the profile changes, but nothing in the listed plan confirms that. Watch next: Whether he throws beyond roughly 2 innings today, which would signal an actual bulk role rather than an opener look. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 01:10 PM ET.
PACE & SCRIPTCIN @ PIT
CIN: 26.5 points per game to PIT's 11.5
CIN is at 26.5 points per game over 2 games; PIT is at 11.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 24.4 over 17 games and PIT at 23.4 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 turnovers committed per game to LAC's 2.5
Buffalo has zero turnovers through two games while the Chargers have coughed it up 2.5 times a game, a wide split from last season when Buffalo was at 1.12 and LA at 1.24. Turnovers are one of the noisiest stats in football and a clean two game stretch rarely holds up over a full season. Betting on Buffalo staying at zero giveaways going forward is a stretch, but a Chargers offense already making mistakes is one more thing pushing this game in Buffalo's direction.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
GB: 244.5 team passing yards per game to ATL's 123.5
Green Bay is throwing for 121 more yards a game than Atlanta right now, up from last season's 212.8 mark, while Atlanta's passing output has dropped from 207.2 to 123.5. Atlanta is leaning on the run instead, and this is only two games of data for each team. If Green Bay keeps needing this much through the air, it could point to an offense playing from behind or missing its run game, a spot to track against a Falcons defense built to stop the run.
PACE & SCRIPTSEA @ WSH
SEA: 8.5 points allowed per game to WSH's 30.5
SEA is at 8.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; WSH is at 30.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 17.2 over 17 games and WSH at 26.5 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTARI @ SF
SF: 31 points per game to ARI's 16.5
ARI is at 16.5 points per game over 2 games; SF is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 20.9 over 17 games and SF at 25.7 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTARI @ SF
SF: 10 points allowed per game to ARI's 22.5
ARI is at 22.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; SF is at 10 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 28.7 over 17 games and SF at 21.8 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
IND: 29.5 penalty yards per game to HOU's 94.5
Houston has racked up 94.5 penalty yards a game to Indianapolis's 29.5, a 65 yard gap that's a real jump from last season when Houston averaged 58.2 and Indianapolis 51.2. That's only two games, and penalty numbers can swing a lot game to game depending on matchups and officiating crews. If Houston keeps giving up this many penalty yards, it's the kind of leak that turns manageable drives into stalled ones and short fields for the other side.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 63.2% third-down conversion rate to ARI's 34.6%
ARI is at 34.6% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; SF is at 63.2% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 41.5% over 17 games and SF at 49.8% over 17 games.
FANTASY USAGEvs CAR
Denzel Boston
WATCH: Boston’s early touchdowns warrant a watch, not a priority claim based on two games Why now: Boston has 154 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets through two games. The Week 3 estimate projects 6.6 targets and 11.3 PPR points, but the touchdown production is concentrated in a very small sample. Who it fits: Managers in deeper PPR leagues looking for a future receiver or flex addition rather than an immediate starter. The risk: His Week 2 line of five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown shows the production was not limited to one play. Watch next: Boston’s Week 3 targets and receiving role against Carolina, especially whether the volume rises beyond the current 5.5-target average. Evidence as of Sep 23, 10:05 AM ET.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Samson Ebukam (DE) is out for ATL
Atlanta's pass rush will be without Ebukam on Thursday in Green Bay because of a hamstring injury. The Falcons have officially listed him as out. The sheet does not name who replaces him at defensive end, so look at who is next on Atlanta's edge rotation before you price sacks or pressure on the Packers' quarterback.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Jayden Reed (WR) is out for GB
Green Bay will play Thursday night against Atlanta without Reed, who has a neck injury. The team has already ruled him out, so there is no game-time decision to wait on. The fact sheet does not say who takes his snaps, so check the Packers' receiver depth chart before betting any Green Bay passing props.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 27 first downs per game to LAC's 17
LAC is at 17 first downs per game over 2 games; BUF is at 27 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 19.5 over 17 games and BUF at 22 over 17 games.
MISMATCHATL @ GB
GB: 244.5 pass yards a game to ATL's 123.5
GB is throwing for 244.5 yards a game, up from 212.8 last season. ATL sits at just 123.5, down sharply from 207.2 a year ago, in two games. That kind of drop for a passing offense early in the year points to either a tough matchup or a team leaning on the run to protect the ball. Two games is a small sample, so the bigger question is whether Atlanta's air attack climbs back toward last year's pace or Green Bay keeps forcing them to abandon it.
COVERAGENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 131.5 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 310.5
NYJ is allowing just 131.5 passing yards a game, DET is giving up 310.5, a 179 yard gap over two games each. That's about as wide as these splits get this early, and DET's total could reflect whoever they lined up against those two weeks. NYJ's secondary travels to Detroit needing to hold that number up against a different look. Two games makes this a snapshot on both sides, not a settled read on either pass defense.
COVERAGENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 4 yards per play allowed to DET's 6
NYJ is allowing 4 yards a play, DET 6, over two games each. Six yards a play means a defense getting hit for chunks on early downs, and with only two games logged that number can still swing hard either direction. NYJ's mark is the steadier early sign of the two. It's a number to check against a different style of offense before calling it real for DET.
COVERAGENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 23.8% third downs allowed to DET's 58.6%
NYJ is at 23.8% third downs allowed over 2 games; DET is at 58.6% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
COVERAGEKC @ MIA
KC: 4.45 yards per play allowed to MIA's 6.05
KC is allowing 4.45 yards a play, MIA 6.05, a 1.6 yard gap over two games each. MIA's number is on the leaky side early, giving up more than six yards a snap on average. KC's mark looks like a defense playing well through two weeks, though the sample is short enough that one big offensive day resets it. The gap is real for now, whether it holds depends on what MIA's defense faces next.
COVERAGEKC @ MIA
KC: 29.2% third downs allowed to MIA's 50%
KC is allowing conversions on just 29.2% of third downs faced, MIA is letting offenses move the sticks half the time, both over two games. A 50% third down rate allowed is rough for a two game start. KC's number reads as the better early defense of the two. Whether that gap holds depends on what each unit faces the rest of the way.
COVERAGETEN @ NYG
TEN: 43.3% third downs allowed to NYG's 65%
TEN is allowing third down conversions at a 43.3% clip, NYG is letting offenses convert 65% of the time, both over two games. A 65% third down rate allowed is extreme, numbers that high almost never survive more games. TEN's figure is closer to a normal defensive rate this early. Whether NYG's number is schedule driven or a real issue up front is the open question two games can't answer yet.
COVERAGECIN @ PIT
PIT: 154.5 passing yards allowed per game to CIN's 253.5
PIT is allowing 154.5 passing yards a game, CIN is giving up 253.5, a 99 yard gap over two games each. CIN's number sits well above where most defenses land, and in a two game sample it could reflect one shootout as much as a real weakness. PIT's mark looks like the stronger unit early, though two games is still a small window to lock in either side. The gap is wide enough to matter now, it needs another game or two to hold up as a real signal.
COVERAGESEA @ WSH
SEA: 124.5 passing yards allowed per game to WSH's 224
SEA is allowing just 124.5 passing yards a game, WSH is giving up 224, close to a hundred yard gap over two games each. That's a strong early number for SEA's pass defense, though two games is still thin, and WSH's total could reflect whichever attack they've faced so far. Neither mark is proven over a real sample yet, but the gap is wide enough to factor into how this matchup is approached.
COVERAGESEA @ WSH
SEA: 3.65 yards per play allowed to WSH's 6.05
SEA is allowing 3.65 yards a play, WSH 6.05, a 2.4 yard gap over two games each. That's an extreme split for this point in a season, SEA's defense has been stingy across the board while WSH's has given up chunks consistently. Two games is still a small sample, but a gap this size in yards per play tends to reflect something real about each unit. WSH's defense is the one due for scrutiny until that number improves.
COVERAGESEA @ WSH
SEA: 28.6% third downs allowed to WSH's 52%
SEA is holding offenses to just 28.6% on third down, WSH is letting them convert 52% of the time, both over two games. A 52% conversion rate allowed is poor even accounting for a short sample. SEA's number lines up with a defense controlling series early. If WSH's third down defense doesn't tighten up, it keeps drives alive for whoever they face next.
COVERAGEBAL @ DAL
BAL: 44% third downs allowed to DAL's 68%
BAL is holding opponents to 44% on third down through two games, DAL is at 68%, a 24 point gap. Both marks are two game samples, where a handful of third down snaps either way can swing the percentage a lot. Baltimore's defense has been sharp on third down while Dallas's has let almost seven in ten conversions through. That gap points to Dallas's third down defense as the bigger swing factor in this game.
MISMATCHNE @ JAX
JAX: 0.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5
Jacksonville is taking care of the ball at 0.5 turnovers a game, down from 1.06 last season, while New England is giving it away 2.5 times a game, way up from 0.94 a year ago, both over two games. That's a sharp jump for New England, the kind of number that can come from a new offense or matchups against good defenses early. Two games is a small sample for a turnover rate, but if New England keeps giving Jacksonville short fields, it's a hard deficit to overcome.
MISMATCHMIN @ TB
MIN: 0.5 turnovers a game to TB's 2.5
Minnesota is at 0.5 turnovers a game, down from 1.76 last season, while Tampa Bay has jumped to 2.5 after finishing at just 0.94 a year ago, both through two games. That's a complete reversal for both teams from where they were last season. Two games is thin for a turnover number, but if Tampa Bay keeps giving the ball away at this rate, it hands Minnesota extra possessions no matter how the rest of the game plays out.
MISMATCHNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 15 points allowed a game to DET's 35.5
NYJ's defense has allowed just 15 points a game, down from 29.6 last season. DET's defense is giving up 35.5, well above its 24.3 mark a year ago, both through two games. Detroit's jump is the bigger swing of the two, and two games is a small sample before assuming it holds. If Detroit's defense keeps playing this loose, New York holding teams to 15 points becomes the bigger factor in how this game plays out.
MISMATCHSEA @ WSH
SEA: 8.5 points allowed a game to WSH's 30.5
Seattle's defense is allowing just 8.5 points a game, well down from 17.2 last season, while Washington's defense is giving up 30.5, up from 26.5 a year ago, both through two games. Washington was already the weaker defense last season and has gotten worse early, while Seattle has taken a real step forward. Two games is a small sample, but a gap this wide between a defense trending up and one trending down shapes how much this game can lean on points instead of a grind.
MISMATCHBAL @ DAL
DAL: 68.2% on third down to BAL's 38.9%
Dallas is converting 68.2% of its third downs, way up from 41.1% last season, while Baltimore has slipped to 38.9% after converting 40.9% a year ago, both over two games. Dallas's number is the outlier here, a huge jump from last year in a two game sample that's unlikely to hold at that pace. Baltimore's dip is smaller and closer to its usual range, so expect Dallas's rate to come back toward earth while Baltimore looks more like the team it was last season.
MISMATCHLV @ NO
LV: 1 sacks taken a game to NO's 4
Las Vegas is allowing just 1 sack a game, way down from 4 a year ago, while New Orleans is giving up 4 a game, up from 3.06 last season, both over two games. Las Vegas's protection has flipped from one of the league's worst marks last year to one of the best early on. Two games is a small sample for a sack rate, so both numbers have room to move back toward last season's pace, especially New Orleans if its line settles in.
MISMATCHPHI @ CHI
CHI: 212.5 rush yards a game to PHI's 112.5
Chicago is running for 212.5 yards a game, well up from 144.5 last season, while Philadelphia is down at 112.5 after averaging 116.9 a year ago, both through two games. Chicago's ground game has taken a real step up early, while Philadelphia's is basically flat with last season. Two games is a small sample for a rushing number this high, but if Chicago keeps running like this, Philadelphia's run defense has to prove it can slow down a ground game outpacing last year's version.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Dallas Goedert (TE) is doubtful for PHI
Goedert has a sprained MCL and is expected to miss a few weeks, so doubtful here effectively means out against Chicago. He's one of Philadelphia's main tight end targets, and his catches will spread to the receivers and the backup tight ends. Expect the absence to last beyond this game.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
CHI: 1.5 takeaways per game to PHI's 0
CHI is forcing 1.5 takeaways a game through two games, while PHI has zero, not a single takeaway in two games. That's just two games for both sides, but a defense with zero takeaways through two weeks stands out. Chicago's defense has been modestly opportunistic while Philadelphia's hasn't forced anything yet. Whether Philadelphia's number moves depends on whether that's a two game fluke or a defense that isn't generating extra possessions.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tyson Bagent (QB) is questionable for CHI
Bagent, Chicago's backup quarterback, is in the concussion protocol and won't practice Wednesday. He matters a lot more this week because Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury. If neither can go, the Bears are down to their third option against Philadelphia. Watch both practice reports before you bet on this Chicago offense.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Cobie Durant (CB) is out for DAL
Durant hurt his hamstring in Sunday's 37-20 win over Washington, and Schottenheimer said he could miss a few weeks. He's out against Baltimore. With Locke also out and Hooker doubtful, Dallas is short on bodies in the secondary. That makes a Ravens passing game more interesting this week, since the Cowboys will lean on depth players at several spots.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
James Thompson Jr. (DT) is doubtful for SF
Thompson suffered a high-ankle sprain during Sunday's 35-13 win over Miami, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Demarcus Robinson (WR) is out for SF
Robinson hurt his ankle in Sunday's 35-13 win over Miami, and it's a high-ankle sprain with a 3-to-6 week timeline. He's out against Arizona and likely for more games after that. San Francisco has to spread his targets around the rest of the receiver room. Expect his absence to last several weeks, so plan any receiver props around the players still active.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Sam Darnold (QB) is questionable for SEA
Darnold (glute) officially was a limited practice participant Wednesday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
TURNOVERSLV @ NO
LV: 2.5 takeaways per game to NO's 1
LV is forcing 2.5 takeaways a game through two games, NO just 1, a 1.5 gap. Both are two game numbers, so a pick six or a fumble recovery in either direction moves the rate by a full takeaway. Las Vegas's defense has been opportunistic early while New Orleans hasn't forced much. The Raiders' takeaway rate is an early trend that still needs to hold up over a longer stretch before it's a real defensive trait.
TURNOVERSMIN @ TB
MIN: 2 takeaways per game to TB's 0.5
MIN is forcing 2 takeaways a game through two games, TB just 0.5, a 1.5 per game gap. Both numbers come from only two games, where a single takeaway swings the rate hard. Minnesota's defense has been the disruptive side early while Tampa Bay's has barely forced anything. This is a two game snapshot for both units, not a proven trait, and a bettor leaning on Minnesota's edge is betting a small early sample keeps holding on the road at Tampa Bay.
TURNOVERSSEA @ WSH
SEA: 2 takeaways per game to WSH's 0
SEA is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TURNOVERSCAR @ CLE
CAR: 3 takeaways per game to CLE's 0.5
CAR's defense is forcing 3 takeaways a game, CLE's defense just 0.5, both over two games. Turnover numbers are streaky this early, a couple of tipped passes or bounces can build or erase a rate like this fast. CAR's takeaway pace runs into a CLE offense that hasn't turned it over much, while CLE's defense needs to show it can pressure the ball at all. Two games of takeaway data is closer to noise than a real level for either defense.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Nick Cross (S) is out for WSH
Cross will not play Sunday against Seattle, and the team has not said what the injury is. That leaves the Commanders one safety short. The sheet does not say who replaces him.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jayden Daniels (QB) is out for WSH
Washington will play Seattle on Sunday without Daniels, who hurt his left elbow. He has no clear timeline to return and is still getting more medical opinions, which makes this look like more than a one-week problem. The sheet does not name the backup quarterback, and he will be the one to evaluate for this game.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Joe Burrow (QB) is questionable for CIN
Burrow has a back injury and is listed as questionable, but the report says he should be good to go barring a setback. That report is from Sep 20 and was about last week's Texans game, so it tells you nothing firm about his status for Pittsburgh. Check the current injury report before betting Cincinnati.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Andrei Iosivas (WR) is out for CIN
Iosivas tore a ligament in his thumb and is going on injured reserve, Zac Taylor said Wednesday. That keeps him out against Pittsburgh and for at least the next few weeks. The Bengals now have one fewer receiver, and his snaps go to the depth players the sheet does not name.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jaxson Dart (QB) is out for NYG
The Giants have lost Dart for the rest of the regular season with a knee injury. John Harbaugh left open a return for the playoffs if New York gets there. The Giants will start a different quarterback against Tennessee and in every game after that, but the sheet does not name who it is.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Anthony Richardson Sr. (QB) is questionable for IND
Richardson has a groin injury and did not practice Wednesday. This report is from Sep 16, though, so it may be out of date for the Houston game. Look for his most recent practice status before you trust any Colts quarterback line.
PASS RUSHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to LAC's 1.5
BUF has 3.5 sacks a game to LAC's 1.5, both over just two games, a sample small enough that one big rush day swings the average either way. Sunday flips the matchup: LAC's line has to hold up against a defense getting home more than twice as often as LAC's own front has. Two games isn't enough to call BUF's pass rush elite or LAC's light, it's just where each sits right now.
PASS RUSHKC @ MIA
KC: 2 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0
KC is averaging 2 sacks a game, MIA has zero through two games. Zero sacks in two games stands out for a pass rush, though it's still a small sample where one strip sack changes the picture. KC's pressure has shown up early, MIA's front hasn't gotten home yet this season. That gap in pressure is already in place heading into this one.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Caleb Williams (QB) is doubtful for CHI
Williams, Chicago's starting quarterback, has a hamstring injury and won't practice Wednesday, and he's listed as doubtful for Philadelphia. That means he's very unlikely to play. Backup Bagent is also dealing with a concussion, so Chicago's quarterback room is in flux. Until you know who's taking snaps, stay away from Bears totals and passing props.
PASS RUSHMIN @ TB
MIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to TB's 1.5
MIN has recorded 4 sacks a game through two games, TB just 1.5, a 2.5 sack gap. That's a two game sample, and sack totals can spike off one big game against a shaky offensive line. Minnesota's pass rush has been the story early while Tampa Bay's has been quiet. Whether Minnesota's rate holds against Tampa Bay's line or was inflated by an early matchup is hard to say off two games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Alec Pierce (WR) is out for IND
Indianapolis is putting Pierce on injured reserve with a heel injury, and Shane Steichen gave no timeline for his return. Pierce misses the Houston game and at least the next few weeks after that. The Colts' other receivers pick up his targets, but the sheet does not say which one moves up.
PASS RUSHLV @ NO
LV: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2
LV has 4 sacks a game through two games, NO has 2, a 2 sack gap. Both come from a two game sample, so one big pass rush day can inflate the rate. Las Vegas's pass rush has been the more productive unit early on. Whether that gap holds depends on Las Vegas's rush staying hot or New Orleans's protection settling in, and two games isn't enough to know which.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Mason Taylor (TE) is doubtful for NYJ
Taylor is doubtful for the Jets' game in Detroit with a thumb injury, and Aaron Glenn said he would not practice Wednesday. A doubtful tag usually means he is unlikely to play. If he is out, the Jets have one fewer tight end target, so check who is active before betting any New York tight end props.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Malik Hooker (S) is doubtful for DAL
Hooker has a forearm injury and did not practice Wednesday. Doubtful means he's unlikely to face Baltimore. Add Locke and Durant being out, and Dallas could be missing three defensive backs. A back end this thin is a real concern for the Cowboys, so factor it into how you see Baltimore's passing game.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Dalvin Tomlinson (DT) is doubtful for LAC
Tomlinson is doubtful for Sunday in Buffalo with a hamstring injury, and he did not practice Wednesday. Doubtful usually means a player is unlikely to play. If he sits, the Chargers have one fewer body on the interior of their defensive line, which is worth keeping in mind for Bills rushing numbers.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Charlie Kolar (TE) is out for LAC
Kolar will miss Sunday's game in Buffalo with a forearm injury, Jim Harbaugh says. He is expected to stay off injured reserve, which makes this a short absence. The Chargers will have one fewer tight end against the Bills, and the sheet does not say who takes his snaps.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) is questionable for ATL
Tagovailoa (ankle) was estimated as a limited participant in Monday's walk-through practice, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) is questionable for ATL
Penix is listed as questionable with a knee injury, but the Falcons have already named him their starter for Thursday in Green Bay. For this game, the questionable tag matters less than the team's announcement that he is starting. That report came out Sep 21, so check for any late change before kickoff, especially if you are betting his passing props.
TRENCHESLAR @ DEN
LAR: 142.5 rushing yards per game to DEN's 82.5
The Rams are running for 142.5 yards a game, up from 126.6 last season, while Denver has dropped to 82.5 after averaging 118.7 a year ago. That is a two game sample, but a drop that sharp for Denver usually points to game script, trailing and abandoning the run, or a banged up line. If the Rams keep controlling the ground game, they can lean on play action and keep Denver's defense on its heels. That kind of gap tends to matter most on early downs and in short yardage.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
P.J. Locke (S) is out for DAL
Locke hurt his foot and left Sunday's 37-20 win over Washington, and he could need a few weeks. He's out against Baltimore. With Durant also out and Hooker doubtful, Dallas could start backups at both safety and corner. Deep shots and coverage busts become more likely against a patched-together secondary.
TRENCHESBAL @ DAL
BAL: 83.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 173.5
BAL is allowing just 83.5 rushing yards a game through two games while DAL is giving up 173.5, a 90 yard gap between the two defenses. Both are two game numbers, so one heavy rushing day can swing them fast. Baltimore's front has held up early and Dallas's hasn't, which sets up a spot where Baltimore's own run game could lean on a Cowboys defense that's already leaking yards on the ground. The bigger question is whether Dallas tightens up at home or keeps bleeding rushing yards like it has through two games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Aaron Banks (G) is out for GB
Banks will miss Thursday night against Atlanta with a toe injury. Green Bay has also lost tackle Zach Bako-Bewele for the season, so the Packers' offensive line is thinner on a short week. The sheet does not say who starts at guard, so confirm the lineup before betting on how well Green Bay protects its quarterback or runs the ball.
TRENCHESHOU @ IND
HOU: 85.5 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 177
HOU is holding teams to 85.5 rushing yards a game, IND is giving up 177, a wide gap even in a two game sample. IND's number is high enough to point at real issues up front, though two games against good rushing attacks could explain it too, there's no way to separate those from the number alone. HOU's front has looked stout early, but two games is still short to call that a strength that travels. IND's run defense is the number most likely to move as the sample grows.
TRENCHESNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 65.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DET's 147
NYJ is allowing just 65.5 rushing yards a game, DET is giving up 147, both over two games. That's an early plus for NYJ's front, but two games is a thin base, one strong outing from a good back changes it fast. DET's defense hasn't slowed anyone on the ground yet through two weeks. That number needs a longer look before it's a real trend.
TRENCHESCAR @ CLE
CLE: 131.5 rushing yards allowed per game to CAR's 224
CLE is holding teams to 131.5 rushing yards a game, CAR is giving up 224, a 92.5 yard gap over two games apiece. That's a thin sample for both sides, and CAR's number could reflect the two run games they've faced as much as anything structural. Sunday puts it to the test directly: CAR's run defense against CLE's offense. Two games is enough to notice the trend, not enough to call CAR's run defense broken yet.
RED ZONECAR @ CLE
CLE: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to CAR's 100%
CLE has held opponents to scoring on half their red zone trips, CAR has let every single one in, both over two games. A 100% clip is about as extreme as this number gets and rarely survives a bigger sample. CLE's 50% looks like the more believable level of the two early on. Whether CAR finally gets a red zone stop this week is the real test of whether that number was a two game fluke.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Warren Brinson (DT) is out for GB
Green Bay has ruled out defensive tackle Brinson for Thursday night against Atlanta because of a calf injury. The sheet gives no depth chart, so it does not say who takes his snaps inside. If you are looking at Falcons rushing numbers, count him as one less body on the Packers' interior line.
RED ZONEARI @ SF
SF: 20% red-zone scoring allowed to ARI's 62.5%
SF has allowed touchdowns on just 20% of red zone trips through two games, far below ARI's 62.5% allowed, but both are two game samples and red zone rates tend to swing back toward the middle. Arizona's offense is the one that's actually finishing drives this year, so this game tests whether SF's number is earned. A bettor banking on SF holding here is trusting two games of red zone defense against an offense that already scores in the red zone nearly two thirds of the time.
MISMATCHHOU @ IND
HOU: 285.5 pass yards a game to IND's 179.5
Houston is throwing for 285.5 yards a game, up from 218.1 last season, while Indianapolis has dropped to 179.5 after averaging 227.8 a year ago, both over two games. That's a real reversal for Indianapolis, from the better passing team last season to the weaker one so far. Two games is a small sample, so the number could climb back toward last year's pace. If it doesn't, Houston has more room to operate through the air while Indianapolis leans on the run to keep pace.
MISMATCHKC @ MIA
KC: 186 rush yards a game to MIA's 88
KC is running for 186 yards a game, way up from 106.6 last season, while Miami is down to 88 after averaging 120.2 a year ago, both through two games. That's a full reversal from last season, when Miami actually ran the ball better than Kansas City did. Two games is a small sample for a run game number to swing this hard, but if it holds, Kansas City can lean on the ground game and control the clock against a Miami run defense that has to prove it can hold up.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is out for GB
Bako-Bewele's season is over. He says he completely tore his right patellar tendon in Sunday's 20-17 overtime win over the Jets, and he has surgery scheduled for Thursday. That is the same day Green Bay hosts Atlanta, so the Packers go into a short week with one fewer tackle. On top of that, guard Aaron Banks is also out, so check who fills out the Packers' offensive line.
MISMATCHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 turnovers a game to LAC's 2.5
Buffalo hasn't turned the ball over yet through two games, while the Chargers are giving it away 2.5 times a game, way up from 1.24 last season. That's a small sample for both sides, but a turnover rate that far off last year's number points to sloppy quarterback play or shaky ball security early for LA. If Los Angeles keeps giving Buffalo extra possessions, that field position edge can be the difference in a game decided by a score.
MISMATCHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 312.5 pass yards a game to CLE's 204
Carolina is throwing for 312.5 yards a game, nearly double last season's 179.3 mark, while Cleveland sits at 204, only slightly above its 165.2 a year ago, both through two games. Carolina's early jump in passing volume looks like a real shift in how they're playing on offense, not just matchup noise. Two games isn't much to go on, but if Carolina keeps throwing at this rate, Cleveland's defense has to prove it can slow down a passing game outpacing anything it did last season.
MISMATCHTEN @ NYG
NYG: 32:03 of possession a game to TEN's 22:25
NYG is holding the ball 32:03 a game, up from 30:58 last season, while Tennessee has dropped to 22:25 after averaging 29:08 a year ago, both over two games. That's a big drop for Tennessee's time of possession, the kind of number that usually means short drives, quick punts, or a defense stuck on the field. Two games is thin, but if the Giants keep controlling the clock like this, Tennessee's defense will be worn down by the fourth quarter.
MISMATCHCIN @ PIT
CIN: 44.8% on third down to PIT's 20%
Cincinnati is converting 44.8% of its third downs, right in line with last season's 43.4%, while Pittsburgh has fallen to 20% after converting 40% a year ago, both over two games. Pittsburgh's number is the one that stands out, a huge drop from last season in a small two game sample. If that keeps up, Pittsburgh's offense will keep stalling out and handing the ball back to Cincinnati, whose third down rate looks steady and repeatable by comparison.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
ATL: 67.5 penalty yards per game to GB's 115.5
ATL is at 67.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; GB is at 115.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 48.2 over 17 games and GB at 48.1 over 17 games.
MISMATCHARI @ SF
SF: 6.85 yards a snap to ARI's 4.35
San Francisco is averaging 6.85 yards a snap on offense, up from 5.49 last season, while Arizona has dropped to 4.35 after averaging 5.18 a year ago, both over two games. That's a big early gap in offensive efficiency between the two teams. Two games is a small sample, but San Francisco moving the ball this easily while Arizona's offense slows down points to a wide efficiency edge if both trends hold.
PASS RUSHHOU @ IND
IND: 8.5 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 28
HOU is at 28 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; IND is at 8.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and IND at 15.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 8.9 yards per pass attempt to LAC's 6.15
LAC is at 6.15 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; BUF is at 8.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 5.87 over 17 games and BUF at 6.88 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 72.5 offensive plays per game to MIA's 53
KC is at 72.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; MIA is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 62.4 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Aidan O'Connell (QB) is questionable for LV
O'Connell is questionable for the Raiders' trip to New Orleans, and the report gives no injury or practice details. Wait for the practice participation reports later in the week before you assume anything about the Las Vegas quarterback situation.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 35:21 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:40
KC is at 35:21 time of possession per game over 2 games; MIA is at 27:40 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 30:09 over 17 games and MIA at 28:57 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to NE's 2
New England is throwing two interceptions a game, way up from 0.47 a year ago, while Jacksonville has cut its turnovers to 0.5 a game after 0.71 last season. Two games is a small sample for a quarterback stat like this, and interception rates are usually the first thing to regress. If New England keeps giving the ball away, Jacksonville's defense gets short fields and extra possessions, tilting the game toward field position and takeaways rather than a clean drive by drive fight.
MISMATCHLAR @ DEN
LAR: 142.5 rush yards a game to DEN's 82.5
LA Rams are running for 142.5 yards a game, up from 126.6 last season, while Denver has dropped to 82.5 after averaging 118.7 a year ago, both over two games. That's a real step back for Denver's run game from where it was last season. Two games is thin, but if Denver keeps struggling to run the ball, it puts more pressure on their passing game to keep pace with a Rams offense already ahead of last year's rushing pace.
PASS RUSHBAL @ DAL
DAL: 6.5 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 25.5
Baltimore's offense is losing 25.5 sack yards a game, up from 17.2 last season, while Dallas has cut its own number to 6.5 after giving up 16 a year ago. It is just two games, so a line that clean for Dallas or that shaky for Baltimore can shift once the schedule turns. If Baltimore keeps getting hit like this, it disrupts the deep shots that offense wants to take, while Dallas gets to operate from a cleaner pocket.
HEAD-TO-HEADHOU @ SEA
Mariners are 9-3 vs Astros this season
Nine wins in twelve meetings is a real season sample, not a fluke born of a couple of games, so Seattle's edge here carries weight. The most recent matchup went the other way though, a 7-0 shutout for Houston. There's nothing here tying the trend to a specific starter or park, so it reads as a genuine season-long edge that one big pitching performance can interrupt on any given night.
TEAM RECORDSTL @ PIT
Cardinals 1-7 in Matthew Liberatore's last 8 starts
One win in Matthew Liberatore's last eight starts is a team number, covering the offense and bullpen as much as him. Eight starts is a thin sample, and run support can swing fast from one game to the next. Facing Pittsburgh tonight, the smarter angle is how St. Louis's bats and bullpen have performed behind him rather than treating 1-7 as a verdict on his pitching.
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 interceptions thrown per game to LAC's 1.5
LAC is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 0.82 over 17 games and BUF at 0.59 over 17 games.
COVERAGEMIN @ TB
MIN: 29.6% third downs allowed to TB's 48.1%
MIN is holding opponents to 29.6% on third down through two games, TB is at 48.1%, an 18.5 point gap. Both are two game numbers, so a handful of third down snaps either way can swing the rate a lot. Minnesota's defense has been tough on third down while Tampa Bay's has let opponents move the chains nearly half the time. Two games is thin evidence, so the real test is whether Minnesota keeps that rate up against a Buccaneers offense converting at a much higher clip.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
DET: 31 points per game to NYJ's 20
NYJ is at 20 points per game over 2 games; DET is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 17.6 over 17 games and DET at 28.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 20 points allowed per game to MIA's 31
KC is at 20 points allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB) is questionable for ATL
Robinson was listed as a limited participant in Monday's walkthrough practice due to an ankle injury, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 21.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ LAD
Dodgers are 8-3 vs Padres this season
Eight wins in eleven meetings shows the Dodgers have handled San Diego more often than not this season. Their last meeting was a lopsided 7-0 shutout rather than a close game. There's no pitching or park detail explaining the gap, so this looks like a genuine season trend for now, the kind a single dominant start can still flip.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ KC
White Sox are 8-3 vs Royals this season
Eight wins in eleven meetings is a solid season sample, and Chicago has controlled most of this series. The last one was a 14-11 slugfest the White Sox won, pointing to these games trending toward offense over tight pitching. Nothing on the sheet explains the split beyond that wild score, so this reads as a real pattern built on scoring rather than dominant arms.
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Jackson Merrill: 1.230 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.230 OPS over his last 55 at bats is nearly half a point above his .750 season mark, a real two week surge. He already has 26 home runs this year, so the power fueling it isn't new. Fifty five at bats rarely holds at that level and tends to drift back toward the season line. With the total bases number at 1.5 tonight against the Dodgers, he's hot, but the season mark is the safer anchor for how often he actually gets there.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ BAL
Josh Smith (bats L) draws Chris Bassitt (RHP), batting 2nd
Smith hits much better against right-handers, and tonight he gets one in Bassitt. His .237 against lefties comes from just 29 at-bats, while the .699 rests on 170, so the split against righties is the number to trust. Batting 2nd adds trips to the plate, so price his props from the .699.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ BAL
Josh Smith (bats L) draws Trey Gibson (RHP), batting 2nd
Josh Smith has a .699 OPS against right-handers in 170 at-bats against .237 in 29 at-bats the other way, so the platoon split rests on the larger slice. He bats second against right-hander Trey Gibson. The 29 at-bats on the weak side is the part to discount.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TRENCHESPHI @ CHI
CHI: 5.9 yards per rush attempt to PHI's 4.1
Chicago is averaging 5.9 yards every time it runs, up from 4.75 last season, while Philadelphia is at 4.1, close to last year's 4.14. Two games is early for a per carry number, and it tends to drop once defenses start stacking the box. Paired with how often Chicago is already running it, this points to a team built to control the game on the ground rather than lean on the pass.
RED ZONEATL @ GB
ATL: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 85.7%
ATL is allowing red zone touchdowns on 50% of trips through two games, GB is at 85.7%, a 35.7 point gap. Both are two game samples, and red zone rates move fast with so few trips to draw from. Atlanta's defense has been the tighter of the two while Green Bay has let almost every red zone trip end in a touchdown. Green Bay's number is the bigger question in this game, since letting 85.7% of trips score is hard to sustain.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ BAL
Orioles 1-6 in Trey Gibson's last 7 starts
Baltimore has won once in Trey Gibson's last 7 starts and has dropped the last 5 straight. Seven games is small, and that record also carries the lineup and bullpen. He faces Toronto at home tonight. Backing the Orioles here means betting the skid ends, so check whether the price already assumes it keeps going.
TEAM RECORDNYM @ TEX
Rangers 1-6 in Cody Bradford's last 7 starts
Texas has lost the last 6 games Bradford started, and the one win came before that streak. A team record in a pitcher's starts also depends on the lineup and the bullpen, and 7 starts is a small sample. A skid this long is usually built into the line against the Mets already, so check whether his own pitching explains it before you lean on it.
RED ZONECAR @ CLE
CAR: 5 red-zone trips per game to CLE's 2.5
CAR is at 5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; CLE is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 2.65 over 17 games and CLE at 2.24 over 17 games.
RED ZONEKC @ MIA
KC: 5 red-zone trips per game to MIA's 2.5
KC is at 5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; MIA is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 3.47 over 17 games and MIA at 2.82 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCAR @ CLE
CAR: 6.7 yards per play to CLE's 5.25
Carolina is averaging 6.7 yards a play, up from 4.92 last season, and Cleveland is at 5.25, up from 4.33. Both numbers lean on chunk plays: Carolina had five 20 plus yard gains in its last game, led by a 55 yard Bryce Young pass to Xavier Legette, while Cleveland's best was a 55 yard touchdown pass to Denzel Boston. That's a one game explosive play sample sitting on a two game season, so it can shift fast.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Tony Pollard (RB) is questionable for TEN
Pollard has an ankle injury and did not practice Wednesday. Spears, the other Titans back, sat out with an ankle injury too. When two backs miss midweek practice, the Giants game carries real backfield risk for Tennessee. Wait for both players' Friday status before you bet any Titans rushing prop or back a run-heavy script.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Tyjae Spears (RB) is questionable for TEN
Spears did not practice Wednesday because of an ankle injury, and Pollard also sat with an ankle problem. That puts both of Tennessee's listed backs in doubt for the Giants game. If only one plays, he could get most of the carries. If neither plays, the Titans are down to whoever is next on the depth chart. Friday's report decides it.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Malik Nabers (WR) is questionable for NYG
Nabers has a shoulder injury, and Pat Leonard reported seeing him practice Wednesday. That's a good sign for a questionable player this early in the week. He's the Giants' top receiver, so his status against Tennessee matters for any New York passing number. Being on the field Wednesday points toward him playing, so check the final report for any limits on his snaps.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Samaje Perine (RB) is questionable for CIN
Perine has a knee injury and was a non-participant at practice on Thursday, Sep 17, which makes him questionable. This report is from last week, so check his practice status this week before the Pittsburgh game. Nothing on the sheet gives his workload, so the impact on the Bengals' backfield is unclear.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Josh Johnson (QB) is inactive for CIN
Johnson was inactive for the Texans game as a coach's decision, with no injury listed. That report was about last week, so it doesn't tell you anything about the Pittsburgh game. A backup quarterback being inactive rarely changes how you bet a game.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Drew Allar (QB) is inactive for PIT
Allar was inactive for the Patriots game as a coach's decision, Teresa Varley reported, with no injury listed. That report was about last week, and a backup quarterback being inactive doesn't change Pittsburgh's plan against Cincinnati.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Will Howard (QB) is inactive for PIT
Howard is a healthy scratch, and he is the Steelers' emergency third quarterback, so he only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. The report was filed Sep 20 and names the Patriots as the opponent, while the listed matchup is Bengals at Steelers, so check which game it covers. For betting, this changes nothing about the Pittsburgh offense.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) is questionable for PIT
Pittman (foot) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Rico Dowdle (RB) is questionable for PIT
Dowdle (toe) was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Jaylen Warren (RB) is questionable for PIT
Warren (shoulder) was listed as a limited participant at Wednesday's practice, Alan Saunders of Pittsburgh Sports Now reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Cooper Kupp (WR) is questionable for SEA
Kupp has a back injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice. Limited means he did part of the work, which is a better sign than sitting out. Questionable means his chances of playing at Washington are roughly a coin flip or better. How he practices Thursday and Friday matters most, so wait for the final injury report before betting his receiving props.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jadarian Price (RB) is questionable for SEA
Price is questionable with a shoulder injury, and Mike Macdonald said Wednesday that he will practice this week. When the head coach says a player will practice, that usually means he is trending toward playing. Seattle's other running back, George Holani, is also questionable with a knee injury, so check the late-week reports on both before betting on how the carries will split against Washington.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
George Holani (RB) is questionable for SEA
Holani has a knee injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice, so he did some of the work. Jadarian Price is also questionable, with a shoulder injury, which leaves Seattle's backfield uncertain heading to Washington. Before betting on who gets the rushing work, wait to see which of them practices fully later in the week.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) is inactive for WSH
Kaliakmanis (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Commanders' emergency third quarterback against the Cowboys on Sunday. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jaylin Lane (WR) is questionable for WSH
Lane returned six kickoffs for 120 yards and one punt for 14 yards in Sunday's 37-20 loss to the Cowboys. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Behren Morton (QB) is inactive for NE
Morton is inactive by coach's decision and will be the Patriots' emergency third quarterback, so he only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him get hurt. The report says the opponent is the Steelers, while the listed matchup is Patriots at Jaguars, so confirm which game it covers. This does not affect any New England bet.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Quinn Ewers (QB) is inactive for JAX
Ewers is inactive by coach's decision. For a backup quarterback, that is routine roster management, not an injury. The report names the Broncos as the opponent, which does not match the listed Patriots at Jaguars game, so check the date. It has no real effect on how Jacksonville's offense projects.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR) is questionable for JAX
Thomas has a shoulder injury and was limited in Thursday's practice, so he did part of the work. This report is from Sep 17, which makes it about a week old for the game against New England. Look for a newer practice report before trusting his status. With Jakobi Meyers also questionable, the Jaguars' receiver group is less certain than usual.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
LeQuint Allen Jr. (RB) is questionable for JAX
Allen has a hip injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice, so he did part of the work. That is a normal early-week step for a player who ends up playing. Questionable means there is real doubt about Sunday against New England. Wait for Friday's report before betting on how Jacksonville splits its running back carries.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jakobi Meyers (WR) is questionable for JAX
Meyers has a thumb injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice. Receivers often play through thumb injuries, but how well he can catch the ball is the concern. Brian Thomas Jr. is also questionable, with a shoulder injury, so Jacksonville may be short at receiver against New England. Check the Friday injury report before betting on any Jaguars receiver.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Carson Beck (QB) is inactive for ARI
Beck (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback against the Seahawks on Sunday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kurtis Rourke (QB) is inactive for SF
Rourke (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Dolphins but will serve as the emergency third quarterback. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kaelon Black (RB) is questionable for SF
Black is listed as questionable with a groin injury, but the Sep 20 report says he is on track to play against Miami. When a report says on track, questionable is usually a precaution, and he is likely to play. That report is from before the listed Cardinals game, so check this week's practice reports before assuming he will get his usual share of carries.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Mike Evans (WR) is questionable for SF
Evans (hip) won't practice Wednesday, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Kyler Murray (QB) is inactive for MIN
Murray was ruled out against the Bears with a concussion. He is expected to clear the concussion protocol next week and is on track to play Sep 27 at Tampa Bay. On track is encouraging, but he still has to pass the protocol before he plays. If he does, Minnesota gets its starter back, so check his final status before betting on the Vikings' passing game.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Aaron Jones Sr. (RB) is questionable for MIN
Jones will not practice Wednesday, and the team has not said what the injury is. When the injury is undisclosed, it is harder to judge how likely he is to play. DeeJay Dallas is also questionable, with a toe injury, so Minnesota's backfield is uncertain going into Tampa Bay. Wait to see whether Jones practices later in the week before betting on the Vikings' running game.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
DeeJay Dallas (RB) is questionable for MIN
Dallas has a toe injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice, so he did part of the work. Aaron Jones Sr. is also questionable and missed Wednesday's practice, which could give Dallas more carries against Tampa Bay if Jones sits. His value depends mostly on what happens with Jones, so watch both players' practice reports.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jalen McMillan (WR) is questionable for TB
McMillan's knee held him back, and the Sep 20 report from Adam Schefter said he was set to play the Browns but would not have a full-time role yet. The questionable tag matters less than his snap count here, because a receiver on a limited plan can be active and still barely play. Until Tampa Bay shows he's back to a full workload, count on other Bucs receivers getting most of the targets.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Joe Fagnano (QB) is inactive for BAL
Fagnano was a coach's decision, not an injury. He was inactive for the Saints game but was Baltimore's emergency third quarterback, which means he could only play if the two quarterbacks ahead of him both went down. Nothing about this changes the Ravens' outlook for this game.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Zay Flowers (WR) is questionable for BAL
Flowers has a hamstring issue and did not practice on Wednesday, Sep 23, Jamison Hensley reports. A missed Wednesday practice with a hamstring puts his questionable tag in real doubt, and hamstrings can linger or come back. Look at Thursday and Friday practice reports before you trust any Flowers number, and if he's limited or out, think about who else in Baltimore's passing game gets his targets.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Dareke Young (WR) is questionable for LV
Young hurt his hamstring during the Chargers game on Sep 20 and was questionable to come back in. An injury during a game with no update after it leaves his status for this week unclear. Wait for the Raiders' practice reports before you count on him being available.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Zach Wilson (QB) is inactive for NO
Wilson was a coach's decision and served as the Saints' emergency third quarterback against the Ravens. That means he only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him get hurt. It has no real effect on how New Orleans plays or how this game should be priced.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Chris Olave (WR) is questionable for NO
Olave carried a questionable tag with a hamstring issue for the Ravens game, but Adam Schefter reported on Sep 20 that he was on track to play. When a questionable player is expected to suit up, the tag is mostly a caution flag. With a hamstring, the risk is that he's on the field but held back, so look at how much he played last week before you treat him as fully healthy.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is questionable for NO
Head coach Kellen Moore said Etienne was a limited practice participant Wednesday due to a hamstring injury, Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Ty Simpson (QB) is inactive for LAR
Simpson was a coach's decision and served as the Rams' emergency third quarterback for Monday's game against the Giants. He only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. He doesn't affect how this game should be priced.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Puka Nacua (WR) is questionable for LAR
Nacua is dealing with a groin injury and sat out practice Wednesday, but Sean McVay said he could practice later this week. The key detail is that McVay expects him back on the field during the week, and his practice status Thursday and Friday will decide it. If Nacua practices by Friday, the questionable tag means little, and if he doesn't, the Rams' passing game looks a lot less settled.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Jordan Whittington (WR) is questionable for LAR
Whittington has a quadriceps injury and did not practice Wednesday, according to Nate Atkins. If he misses more practice, a questionable tag often ends with the player sitting. Watch the rest of the week's reports before counting on him for this game.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) is questionable for DEN
Mims was limited in Wednesday's practice with a foot injury. Taking part at all is a good sign early in the week, so the questionable tag looks more like caution than a player about to miss. Look for a full practice later in the week to confirm he's ready for his usual role against the Rams.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
RJ Harvey (RB) is questionable for DEN
Harvey was limited Wednesday with a hamstring injury, and so was J.K. Dobbins with a hip issue. That leaves Denver with two banged-up running backs heading into the Rams game. If either one sits, the other probably takes on more of the work, so follow both practice reports together before you judge the Broncos' run game.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
J.K. Dobbins (RB) is questionable for DEN
Dobbins (hip) was limited at practice Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Jonah Coleman (RB) is questionable for DEN
Coleman (ankle) didn't practice Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tanner McKee (QB) is inactive for PHI
McKee was inactive as the Eagles' emergency third quarterback against the Titans, a coach's decision. He only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him get hurt. It doesn't change anything about Philadelphia for this game.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Cole Payton (QB) is inactive for PHI
Payton was inactive against the Titans because of a coach's decision, not an injury. That's a depth move and it doesn't affect how the Eagles line up or how this game should be priced.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Saquon Barkley (RB) is questionable for PHI
Barkley suffered a stinger, a neck and shoulder injury, during the Titans game on Sep 20, and the Eagles listed him as questionable to return. Stingers can clear up quickly or keep coming back, so how he practices this week will tell you whether he's close to a normal workload. Until his status is clear, be careful with any Eagles bet that depends on Barkley getting a lot of carries.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Kyle Monangai (RB) is questionable for CHI
Monangai (undisclosed) was not present during the portion of Wednesday's practice open to the media, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
D'Andre Swift (RB) is questionable for CHI
Swift (ankle/knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Case Keenum (QB) is inactive for CHI
Keenum (coach's decision) is inactive but serving as the Bears' emergency third quarterback against the Vikings on Sunday. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Bo Melton (WR) is questionable for GB
Melton is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Jets due to a stinger. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ladd McConkey (WR) is questionable for LAC
McConkey is dealing with a rib injury and was reported as trending in the right direction ahead of kickoff. Questionable with positive news usually leans toward playing. Rib injuries can limit a receiver's snaps even when he suits up, so be careful with his yardage props until he's confirmed active.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Brenen Thompson (WR) is questionable for LAC
Thompson has a quadriceps injury and did not practice Wednesday. Questionable after a full sit-out makes his status against Buffalo uncertain. Check Thursday and Friday before you count on him in the Chargers' receiver rotation.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
DJ Moore (WR) is questionable for BUF
Moore has a shoulder injury but got in a limited practice Wednesday and said he felt great afterward. That's an encouraging sign for his availability against the Chargers. With Coleman also missing practice, Moore's status matters more to Buffalo's receiver group this week.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Keon Coleman (WR) is questionable for BUF
Coleman missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury, so questionable carries some real doubt for the Chargers game. Moore is also limited with a shoulder injury, so Buffalo's receiver depth is worth tracking through the rest of the week.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Haynes King (QB) is inactive for CAR
King is inactive by coach's decision and is healthy. He's Carolina's emergency third quarterback, so he only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. This has no real effect on the game unless something goes badly wrong at the position.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Jalen Coker (WR) is questionable for CAR
Coker has an ankle injury and was limited Wednesday, so he's practicing in some form ahead of the Cleveland game. Questionable with limited work usually leans toward playing, but a later practice upgrade would firm that up.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Taylen Green (QB) is inactive for CLE
Green is Cleveland's emergency third quarterback, and the Sep 20 note calls his inactive tag a coach's decision, with no injury listed. That note was about the Buccaneers game, so it doesn't tell you anything about Carolina yet. Third quarterbacks rarely play, so this changes nothing about the Browns' starting passer or the betting line.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Kene Nwangwu (RB) is questionable for NYJ
Nwangwu has a back injury and did not practice Wednesday, so he goes into the week as questionable. The fact sheet gives no workload, so there's no way to know how much of the Jets' backfield he handles. Thursday and Friday practice will tell you more than the tag does. If he stays out of practice, expect the carries to go to the other Jets backs.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Nico Collins (WR) is questionable for HOU
Collins is Houston's main receiver, and a hamstring injury kept him out of Wednesday's practice. Hamstrings can linger, and a player who can't practice midweek is a real risk to miss the game or play limited. If he sits or is limited against the Colts, the targets have to go somewhere else. Wait for his late-week practice status before you bet Texans passing props or the total.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Riley Leonard (QB) is inactive for IND
Leonard is Indianapolis's emergency third quarterback, and his inactive tag is a coach's decision, with no injury listed. The Sep 20 note was about the Kansas City game, so it tells you nothing about Houston yet. A third quarterback almost never plays, so this doesn't move anything for bettors.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Ashton Dulin (WR) is questionable for IND
Dulin has an ankle injury and did not practice Wednesday, which makes him questionable against Houston. The fact sheet gives no role or production for him, so losing him mostly matters for depth and special teams. Look for him back at practice later in the week before you count him in.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Brady Cook (QB) is inactive for MIA
Cook is Miami's emergency third quarterback, and his inactive tag was a coach's decision for the 49ers game, with no injury listed. It doesn't change the Dolphins' quarterback plan against Kansas City, and third quarterbacks rarely see the field.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jaylen Wright (RB) is questionable for MIA
Wright has a stinger and a foot injury but was limited at practice Wednesday. Getting any practice in midweek is a better sign than sitting out. He's questionable against Kansas City, and the question is how much work he gets if he plays. A limited practice fits a player who suits up with a lighter load, so keep that in mind for Miami rushing props.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Caleb Douglas (WR) is questionable for MIA
Douglas has an ankle injury, and Jeff Hafley said he won't practice Wednesday, so he's questionable against Kansas City. Missing midweek practice raises the chance he sits. If he misses Friday too, count him out and expect his snaps to go to the other Miami receivers.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chris Bell (WR) is questionable for MIA
Bell got one target in the Week 2 loss to San Francisco and didn't catch it. That's a small role, so whether he plays against Kansas City barely changes Miami's passing game. The fact sheet doesn't list an injury.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Ryan Miller (WR) is questionable for MIA
Miller has hip and back injuries and was limited at practice Wednesday, so he's questionable against Kansas City. A limited session midweek means he has a real shot to play. With Douglas also questionable, Miami's receiver depth is thin, and Miami's late-week injury report will tell you who is left.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSLAR @ DEN
LAR: 6.55 yards per play to DEN's 5.15
The Rams are averaging 6.55 yards a play, up from 6.15 last season, while Denver is at 5.15, down slightly from 5.32. Two games keep this noisy, but the Rams already ran an efficient offense last year and look to be building on it rather than starting from nothing. Combined with their rushing numbers, this points to a Rams offense that can control tempo and stay ahead of the sticks against Denver's defense.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
HOU: 75.5 offensive plays per game to IND's 58
HOU is at 75.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; IND is at 58 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and IND at 59.9 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLV @ NO
LV: 13.5 points allowed per game to NO's 24
LV is at 13.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 25.4 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.
COVERAGENE @ JAX
NE: 4.7 yards per play allowed to JAX's 6.1
NE is allowing 4.7 yards per play through two games, JAX is at 6.1, a 1.4 yard gap. Both are two game numbers, so a few explosive plays either way can move the per play average quickly. New England's defense has been tighter overall while Jacksonville's has given up more per snap. That gap is a broad early signal more than a settled trait.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 59.5 penalty yards per game to NYJ's 102
The Jets are averaging 102 penalty yards a game, almost double last season's 53.5, while Detroit is at 59.5, also up from 42.2 a year ago. Two games of penalty data moves around a lot, but a number that high for the Jets suggests a team playing out of control or overmatched up front. If that continues, it hands Detroit extra yardage and fresh sets of downs without needing to earn them on the field.
STREAKHOU @ SEA
HOU games have gone UNDER 9 straight
The under has cashed 9 straight in Houston games, with 7.9 combined runs a game against lines averaging 9.2. Tonight's number sits at 7.5, so the market has already pulled it down. Nine straight unders is a long run, and the price now reflects it.
P final total 11 vs 7.5
STREAKLAA @ OAK
OAK have lost 6 straight
Oakland has lost 6 straight and been outscored by 20 runs, with a 3-7 mark over its last 10. The run margin is the meaningful part, since blowouts hurt more than close losses. Six games is a small sample for a team-level claim.
P team won 3-7
STREAKCLE @ BOS
CLE have won 6 straight
Cleveland has won 6 straight with a plus-14 run margin and sits 8-2 over its last 10. The margin says these wins were not all one-run coin flips. Six games is short enough that the streak alone is weak grounds for laying a price.
P team lost 0-1
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Kyle Tucker: 1.303 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.303 OPS over his last 41 at bats sits well above his .727 season mark, one of the bigger jumps in this stretch. He has 17 home runs this season, so there's real power behind the surge. Forty one at bats is a short sample that tends to fade back toward the season number. With tonight's total bases line at 1.5 against the Dodgers, the .727 he's hit all year matters more here than the hot two weeks.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TRENCHESBAL @ DAL
BAL: 5.2 yards per rush attempt to DAL's 3.45
BAL is at 5.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 3.45 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 5.28 over 17 games and DAL at 4.59 over 17 games.
COVERAGEHOU @ IND
HOU: 252.5 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 337.5
HOU is allowing 252.5 passing yards a game through two games, IND is at 337.5, an 85 yard gap. Both marks are two game samples, so one big passing day skews the average. Houston's pass defense has held up better early while Indianapolis has been the softer unit through the air. That's a meaningful early split, but 85 yards over two games can shrink or grow fast once both defenses see more competitive passing attacks.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 246 team passing yards per game to ARI's 179
ARI is at 179 team passing yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 246 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 232.6 over 17 games and SF at 244.5 over 17 games.
STARTER FORMCLE @ BOS
Foster Griffin: 9.49 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty hits and 13 earned runs in just 12.1 innings over his last three starts pushed Foster Griffin's ERA to 9.49. That's three bad outings in a row, and the jump from his 3.67 season ERA, over five runs higher, is too wide to dismiss as noise. The short outings show he isn't finishing innings clean right now. In CLE @ BOS, recent form should carry more weight here than hoping the season number reasserts itself soon.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSBAL @ DAL
BAL: 6.75 yards per play to DAL's 5.4
Baltimore is averaging 6.75 yards a play, up from 5.92 last season, while Dallas is at 5.4, down from 5.96. Two games is thin for an efficiency stat, but Baltimore already ran an efficient offense last year, so this looks more like continuation than a fluke. If it holds, Baltimore can move the ball in bigger chunks, forcing Dallas to speed up its own offense to keep pace.
TRENCHESKC @ MIA
KC: 5.5 yards per rush attempt to MIA's 3.8
KC is at 5.5 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; MIA is at 3.8 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 4.29 over 17 games and MIA at 4.64 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
SEA: 7.65 yards per pass attempt to WSH's 5.3
Seattle is averaging 7.65 yards per pass attempt, down a bit from last season's 8.01, while Washington has dropped more, to 5.3 from 6.41. Two games is a small window for a passing efficiency number, but the direction for both teams is the same, down from a year ago. If Washington's number stays this low, it suggests real trouble protecting the quarterback or getting open, which would let Seattle's defense sit back and dare them to earn it.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
ATL: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to GB's 0%
ATL is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; GB is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 50% over 17 games and GB at 56% over 17 games.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BOS
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Sonny Gray (RHP), batting 6th
Lowe's .833 against righties comes from 329 AB, so it is close to who he is. His .271 against lefties comes from only 42 AB and says little. Sonny Gray is a right-hander, which puts Lowe on his good side from the 6th spot. Judge him on the .833 and set the thin lefty number aside.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
PHI: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 50%
Philadelphia has converted every fourth down try this season, well above last year's 52.4 percent, while Chicago is at 50, close to its 51.7 mark a year ago. Two games means Philadelphia's number is likely just a handful of conversions, so it is more small sample noise than a real jump in ability. Chicago's steady number across both seasons is the more reliable read of the two teams' fourth down tendencies.
HEAT CHECKARI @ COL
Nolan Arenado: 1.299 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.299 OPS over his last 42 at bats is more than half a point above his .777 season mark. He has 27 home runs this year, so real power sits behind this stretch. A gain like that over 42 at bats is still a short sample and usually settles back toward the season line. Tonight's 1.5 total bases number against Arizona is a spot where the hot streak and the season long form are pulling in different directions.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ PIT
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Lake Bachar (RHP)
Burleson hits right-handers hard and drops to .552 against lefties. The .934 comes from 398 AB, a large sample, so the split is stable. Lake Bachar is a righty, so Burleson has the edge from the 3rd spot early. A lefty reliever late takes it away, so his first trips against Bachar carry the most value.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to SEA's 50%
Washington has converted every fourth down try this season while Seattle is at 50 percent, and both teams were already solid on fourth down last year, Washington at 61.5 percent and Seattle at 58.3. It's just two games of attempts, so a perfect rate is more small sample noise than a new identity for Washington. Both teams' history says they'll keep going for it in these spots, so watch how often each team pulls the trigger, not just whether they convert.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 38:13 time of possession per game to DET's 31:33
NYJ is at 38:13 time of possession per game over 2 games; DET is at 31:33 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 28:15 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 50% third-down conversion rate to LV's 33.3%
LV is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; NO is at 50% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 33.8% over 17 games and NO at 39.5% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
TEN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NYG's 50%
TEN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; NYG is at 50% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 45.7% over 17 games and NYG at 46.2% over 17 games.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ DET
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Brady House has a .973 OPS against lefties and .575 against righties. Framber Valdez is a lefty, so House hits 3rd in his best matchup. The lefty number comes from 95 AB, fewer than his 212 against righties, so it can move more. For House props, the lefty starter is the whole case, and it weakens once Detroit goes to right-handed relief.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Chig Okonkwo (TE) is questionable for WSH
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn implied that Okonkwo (hamstring) will be a non-participant for Wednesday's practice, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. Reported Sep 23.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ OAK
Athletics 2-6 in Jeffrey Springs's last 8 starts
Two wins in Jeffrey Springs's last eight starts usually points to thin run support and bullpen letdowns as much as anything he's done wrong on the mound. Eight starts is a small sample to draw firm conclusions from. Hosting the Angels tonight, that mark says more about Oakland's overall play in his starts than about him individually.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ SEA
Mariners 2-6 in George Kirby's last 8 starts
Two wins in George Kirby's last eight starts is a rough stretch for a pitcher usually seen as one of Seattle's better arms. A record like that often points to inconsistent offense or bullpen support around him rather than a drop in his own performance. Eight starts is still a small sample within the season. Hosting Houston tonight, separate how Kirby has actually pitched from how often Seattle has actually won those games.
TEAM RECORDMIL @ PHI
Brewers 6-2 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Six wins in Logan Henderson's last eight starts is one of the better stretches on Milwaukee's staff. A record that strong usually means the offense has backed him and the bullpen has protected leads, not just that Henderson has been dominant himself. Eight starts is still a small sample, so some pullback toward average is normal. Against Philadelphia tonight, that mark says as much about how Milwaukee has played around him as about his own stuff.
STARTER FORMSD @ LAD
Robbie Ray: 8.78 ERA over his last 3 starts
Thirteen earned runs in 13.1 innings across his last three starts is what pushed Robbie Ray's ERA to 8.78, well above his 3.60 season mark. His WHIP has climbed too, 1.65 in that stretch against a 1.33 season number, so hitters are reaching base more often, not just landing a few lucky hits. Three starts is a small sample against a full season of 3.60 ball. Against San Diego, that's a pitcher in a real rough patch, not just unlucky results on the same stuff.
P 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
PLATOON EDGEARI @ COL
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Nootbaar has a .762 OPS against right-handers in 226 at-bats against .450 in 40 at-bats the other way. He leads off against right-hander Mason Adams. The platoon gap is wide, and the 40 at-bats on the weak side is the thin half.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ DAL
BAL @ DAL carries a 52.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 52.5, 9 points above the 43.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Oscar Delp (TE) is questionable for NO
Delp (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice for the second straight day Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Brock Bowers (TE) is questionable for LV
Bowers has a knee injury and was limited at Wednesday's practice, per the Sep 23 report. Questionable puts him in doubt for the trip to New Orleans. A knee on a tight end is worth tracking through the week, because even if he suits up, his snap count could be managed. Hold off on any Bowers receiving props until you see Friday's practice status.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
George Kittle (TE) is questionable for SF
Kittle (Achilles) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Eli Raridon (TE) is questionable for NE
Raridon (thigh) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Nick Muse (TE) is questionable for ATL
Muse (shoulder) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Mookie Betts: 1.212 OPS in Last 15 Days
Betts's 1.212 OPS over the last 15 days spans 46 at-bats, 0.432 above his .780 season baseline. His total-bases line is 1.5, so two bases cash it. Forty-six at-bats is a two-week sample, useful context and not a new baseline.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Colby Parkinson (TE) is questionable for LAR
Parkinson didn't participate in Wednesday's walkthrough due to a knee injury, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Terrance Ferguson (TE) is questionable for LAR
Ferguson was limited at Wednesday's walkthrough due to an ankle injury, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Juwan Johnson (TE) is questionable for NO
Johnson (illness) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 17.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper's 1.003 against righties over 339 AB is elite, and he falls to .668 against lefties over 215 AB. Both samples are solid, so the split is real. Logan Henderson is a righty, giving Harper the edge from the 3rd spot. His best at-bats come early, before Milwaukee can bring in a lefty.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIA @ CHC
Jakob Marsee: 1.151 OPS in Last 15 Days
Marsee's 1.151 OPS over the last 15 days covers 43 at-bats, 0.444 above his .707 season baseline. His total-bases line is 0.5, so one base cashes it. A 43 at-bat run like this happens to plenty of hitters.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 80% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 33.3%
KC is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 75% over 17 games and MIA at 47.8% over 17 games.
PLATOON EDGETB @ NYY
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Liam Hicks has an .889 OPS against right-handers in 362 at-bats against .504 in 100 at-bats the other way, and he bats fourth against right-hander Gerrit Cole. The 362 at-bats is a solid base for the strong side. Cole is the complication.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCIN @ PIT
CIN: 5.05 yards per play to PIT's 3.8
Cincinnati is averaging a yard and a quarter more per play than Pittsburgh through two games, built on explosive plays. The Bengals had four 20-plus yard gains last game, Chase's 32-yard score and two 23-yard catches from Higgins, while Pittsburgh managed only one, a 26-yard Rodgers throw to Warren. Last season both offenses were nearly even, 5.23 to 5.22, so this split leans heavily on a two-game sample and could close. A game like this can turn on whether Cincinnati keeps hitting chunk plays or Pittsburgh's offense starts finding its own explosive plays.
RED ZONENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 90%
NYJ is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DET is at 90% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
COOLING OFFTB @ NYY
Yandy Diaz: .406 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .406 OPS across 45 at bats over the last 15 days is a steep drop from his .802 season mark. Fifteen days is more than one bad game, but 45 at bats is still a short sample that a few loud swings could turn around fast. Facing the Yankees next, the season mark remains the better guide to who he actually is at the plate until the recent number climbs back.
COOLING OFFNYM @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran: .356 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .356 OPS across 45 at bats over the last 15 days is well under his .755 season mark. Fifteen days is a short window, so this reads as a slump rather than a new level for him, one that could flip with a single strong week. With the Mets visiting Texas next, .755 remains the more reliable read on what he brings to the lineup until the recent number moves closer to it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TRENCHESCIN @ PIT
CIN: 74.5 rushing yards allowed per game to PIT's 128
CIN is allowing just 74.5 rushing yards a game through two games, PIT is at 128, a 53.5 yard gap. Both are two game numbers, so one strong rushing day can swing the average by itself. Cincinnati's run defense has been stingy early while Pittsburgh's has given up much more on the ground. That split is real through two games, but it takes more than two games for a run defense number like this to be trusted as a season baseline.
STREAKSTL @ PIT
PIT have won 5 straight
Pittsburgh has won 5 straight with a plus-10 run margin and sits 6-4 over its last 10. The margin is modest for a 5-game streak, which fits a run of close games. Five games is short, so the streak is context and not a rating.
P team lost 5-1
STREAKCHW @ KC
KC have lost 5 straight
Kansas City has lost 5 straight, outscored by 12 runs, with a 2-8 mark over its last 10. The 10-game record is the broader signal here. Five games alone would be noise.
P team won 4-5
STREAKSD @ LAD
SD have won 5 straight
San Diego has won 5 straight with a plus-24 run differential over the run and a 9-1 mark over its last 10. The margin and the 10-game record point the same way: this is a team playing well. Five games alone would mean less than the 9-1 does.
P team won 5-1
COVERAGEPHI @ CHI
PHI: 166 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 240
PHI has allowed 166 passing yards a game through two contests, well ahead of the 240 CHI's defense has given up. Two games is a small sample for any defense, so the gap could shrink once tougher opponents arrive. Chicago's defense has been the softer one through the air, which matters more for Philadelphia's offense than for grading PHI's own unit. Wait for a real passing attack before pricing this number as settled.
COVERAGEPHI @ CHI
PHI: 5.05 yards per play allowed to CHI's 6.25
PHI is allowing 5.05 yards per play through two games, a full 1.2 yards better than the 6.25 CHI's defense has given up. That's a strong start, but two games can't separate scheme from schedule. CHI's defense has been the leakier one in this matchup by a wide margin, so Philadelphia's offense may have the easier path to yards. A tougher opponent will tell bettors more about PHI's defense than these first two games have.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG: 20 first downs per game to TEN's 12.5
New York is picking up almost eight more first downs a game than Tennessee, a gap built on sustaining drives rather than one big play. New York's number is close to who they've been, 20.4 a game last season versus 20 now, while Tennessee has fallen from 15.4 last season to 12.5 through two games. That drop for the Titans is real early, but it is only two games. A gap this wide points to New York controlling time of possession and field position if it holds up.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Billy Bowman Jr. (CB) is questionable for ATL
Bowman (Achilles) is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game at Green Bay, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Jawaan Taylor (OT) is questionable for ATL
Taylor (ribs) was listed as limited on the Falcons' estimated injury report Monday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Lukas Van Ness (DE) is questionable for GB
Van Ness (concussion) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Wes Hodkiewicz reports. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Elijah Molden (CB) is questionable for LAC
Molden (hamstring) did not participate at practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Derius Davis (WR) is questionable for LAC
Davis (undisclosed) is day-to-day with an injury he suffered during Sunday's 26-14 loss to the Cardinals. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Kayode Awosika (G) is doubtful for LAC
LAC lists Kayode Awosika as doubtful on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Elgton Jenkins (C) is questionable for CLE
Jenkins (back) was a limited participant in practice Thursday, Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Tyson Campbell (CB) is questionable for CLE
Campbell (ankle/hip) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Joseph Ossai (DE) is questionable for NYJ
Ossai has a foot injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice, per the Sep 23 report. Questionable puts his status for the Detroit game in doubt. A limited session means he is practicing in some form, and Friday's report is the one to watch. If he misses the game, the Jets have one fewer edge rusher to throw at Detroit's quarterback.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Will McDonald IV (DE) is questionable for NYJ
This ankle report is from Sep 18 and refers to a game against the Packers, which means it covers an earlier week and not the Detroit game. McDonald was limited that Friday and listed questionable. Look for a fresh practice report this week before you assume anything about his status or how much the Jets can pressure the quarterback.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Charvarius Ward (CB) is questionable for IND
Ward has a groin injury and did not practice Wednesday, per the Sep 23 report. Missing practice entirely is a worse sign than a limited session, so this questionable tag leans more toward concern for the Houston game. If he can't go, Houston's passing game gets a softer matchup on the outside. Watch whether he returns to practice later in the week.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Garrett Nussmeier (QB) is inactive for KC
This is a Sep 14 note from an earlier Monday night game against the Broncos. Nussmeier was inactive as a coach's decision and served as the emergency third quarterback. It says nothing about injury, and it has no effect on Kansas City's plans at quarterback for the Miami game.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Mansoor Delane (CB) is questionable for KC
Delane (shoulder) is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus the Colts, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Robert Beal Jr. (DE) is questionable for MIA
Beal (hamstring) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Cor'Dale Flott (CB) is questionable for TEN
Flott has a quadriceps injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice, per the Sep 24 report. Questionable means he is uncertain for the Giants game. A limited practice early in the week leaves room for him to play. If he sits, Tennessee has to plug a hole in the secondary, so keep an eye on Giants passing props.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB) is questionable for NYG
Harbaugh said Tracy was dealing with an illness, per a report from Sep 16. That note is a week old, and illnesses usually clear up within days, so go by this week's practice reports for the Tennessee game. If he is still limited, carries in the Giants backfield could be split more than usual.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable for NYG
Banks (calf) was estimated as a limited participant for the Giants' walkthrough practice Wednesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Francis Mauigoa (OT) is questionable for NYG
Mauigoa was a limited participant in Friday's practice due to a shoulder injury, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Greg Newsome II (CB) is questionable for NYG
Newsome (ribs) was a limited participant at practice Thursday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Andrew Thomas (OT) is questionable for NYG
Thomas (groin) is questionable to return to Monday's game against the Rams, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Joey Porter Jr. (CB) is questionable for PIT
Porter (undisclosed) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Troy Fautanu (OT) is questionable for PIT
Fautanu (ankle) is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game at New England, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Jamel Dean (CB) is questionable for PIT
Dean (ankle) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) is questionable for NE
Head coach Mike Vrabel said Henderson (ankle) will "do some more" at Wednesday's practice, Mark Daniels of MassLive.com reports. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Dre'Mont Jones (DE) is questionable for NE
Jones (shoulder) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Garrett Williams (CB) is questionable for ARI
Williams (Achilles) was a limited participant at the Cardinals' practice Wednesday, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Max Melton (CB) is questionable for ARI
Melton (toe) did not participate at the Cardinals' practice Wednesday, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Romello Height (DE) is questionable for SF
Height will undergo hand surgery Tuesday, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reported Monday. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jack Jones (CB) is questionable for SF
Jones (foot) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
J.J. McCarthy (QB) is inactive for MIN
This is a Sep 13 note from an earlier game against the Packers. McCarthy was inactive as a coach's decision and served as the emergency third quarterback. It is a roster move, not an injury, and it does not tell you anything about Minnesota's starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay game.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (DE) is questionable for MIN
Ingram-Dawkins hurt his hip in Week 2 at Chicago, and O'Connell called him day-to-day on Monday, per the Sep 22 report. Day-to-day plus questionable means he has a real chance to play against Tampa Bay, but the practice reports this week will settle it. If he sits, Minnesota loses a body from its defensive line rotation.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Ronnie Stanley (OT) is questionable for BAL
Stanley, Baltimore's left tackle, has a toe injury and did not practice Wednesday, per the Sep 24 report. A left tackle protects the quarterback's blind side, so his status matters for the Dallas game. Sitting out practice early in the week is a real concern, and if he misses the game, a backup will be blocking Dallas's pass rushers. Wait for Friday's report.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Darien Porter (CB) is questionable for LV
Porter (foot) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Cameron Jordan (DE) is questionable for NO
Jordan (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Chase Young (DE) is questionable for NO
Young (calf) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable for NO
Coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Emerson is "day-to-day" after injuring his shoulder in Week 2 at Baltimore, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Sam Ehlinger (QB) is inactive for DEN
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Broncos' emergency third quarterback against the Chiefs on Monday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Cooper DeJean (CB) is questionable for PHI
Dejean (calf) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Miller Moss (QB) is inactive for CHI
The Bears signed Moss to the practice squad and elevated him to the active roster Saturday. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB) is questionable for CHI
Stevenson suffered a hamstring injury during Sunday's 9-3 loss to the Vikings. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 43.5% third-down conversion rate to CLE's 28.6%
CAR is at 43.5% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; CLE is at 28.6% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 36.1% over 17 games and CLE at 33.6% over 17 games.
RED ZONELAR @ DEN
LAR: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to DEN's 42.9%
LA Rams are scoring touchdowns on two of every three red zone trips this year, Denver only about four in ten, a real gap in cashing in scoring chances. The Rams' rate lines up with last season's 63.2%, so that looks like their normal level, while Denver has fallen from 57.9% a year ago to 42.9% through two games. That is a two-game sample built on a handful of trips, so it can swing fast either way. If Denver keeps settling for field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone, that is points left on the board that can decide a close spread.
RED ZONESEA @ WSH
WSH: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to SEA's 42.9%
SEA is at 42.9% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; WSH is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 54.2% over 17 games and WSH at 65.2% over 17 games.
PASS RUSHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 2 sacks taken per game to CLE's 3.5
CAR is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; CLE is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 2.19 over 17 games and CLE at 3 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHLAR @ DEN
LAR: 0.5 sacks taken per game to DEN's 2
LAR is at 0.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and DEN at 1.77 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHBAL @ DAL
DAL: 1 sacks taken per game to BAL's 2.5
BAL is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DAL is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 2.65 over 17 games and DAL at 2.38 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHARI @ SF
SF: 0 sacks taken per game to ARI's 1.5
ARI is at 1.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; SF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 3.69 over 17 games and SF at 1.8 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHNE @ JAX
JAX: 1.5 sacks taken per game to NE's 3
NE is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 3 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHBAL @ DAL
BAL: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1
BAL has 2.5 sacks a game through two games, DAL has 1, a 1.5 gap. Both are two game samples, so a single sack changes the per game rate noticeably. Baltimore's pass rush has been more productive early while Dallas's has generated less pressure. That's a modest early edge for Baltimore, and it should be weighed as an early read rather than settled form.
PASS RUSHHOU @ IND
HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to IND's 2
HOU has 3.5 sacks a game through two games, IND has 2, a 1.5 gap. Both come from a two game sample, where one big rush day can inflate the number. Houston's pass rush has been the more productive unit early. That gap is a two game trend and nothing more until it holds up over a longer stretch.
PASS RUSHATL @ GB
GB: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to ATL's 2
GB has 3.5 sacks a game through two games, ATL has 2, a 1.5 gap. Both are two game numbers, so one big pass rush day skews the rate. Green Bay's pass rush has been the more productive of the two early on. Whether that edge holds against Atlanta's offense is still an open question with only two games of evidence.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
HOU: 28 points allowed per game to IND's 37
HOU is at 28 points allowed per game over 2 games; IND is at 37 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and IND at 24.2 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSKC @ MIA
KC: 6.3 yards per play to MIA's 5.15
Kansas City is gaining better than a yard more per snap than Miami through two games, built on explosive plays: five gains of 20-plus last game, Mahomes hitting Tyquan Thornton for 45 and Rashee Rice twice for 31 and 30. Miami has had its own chunk plays too, a 77-yard touchdown from Malik Willis to Ryan Miller, but its overall rate has slipped from 5.4 last season to 5.15 now. Kansas City's jump from 5.05 a year ago rests on just two games, so some pullback toward that old number is possible. Both offenses have shown they can strike for big plays early, which puts real weight on which defense limits the other's shots this week.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DAL
BAL: 8.65 yards per pass attempt to DAL's 6.6
BAL is at 8.65 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 6.6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and DAL at 7 over 17 games.
RED ZONENE @ JAX
NE: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to JAX's 28.6%
NE is at 0% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; JAX is at 28.6% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
RED ZONETEN @ NYG
TEN: 71.4% red-zone scoring allowed to NYG's 100%
TEN is at 71.4% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; NYG is at 100% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
RED ZONEKC @ MIA
KC: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 88.9%
KC is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; MIA is at 88.9% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TRENCHESCAR @ CLE
CAR: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to CLE's 2.95
CAR is at 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; CLE is at 2.95 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 4.16 over 17 games and CLE at 3.9 over 17 games.
COOLING OFFSD @ LAD
Freddie Freeman: .393 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .393 OPS in 41 at bats over the last 15 days is a sizable dip from his .806 season mark. That's a notable slide for a hitter with his track record, though 41 at bats is a small sample that can turn quickly once a few more balls start landing. With the Dodgers hosting San Diego next, the gap to his season number makes climbing back toward .806 the more likely path than staying this low.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 fumbles lost per game to LAC's 1
LAC is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 0.41 over 17 games and BUF at 0.53 over 17 games.
PARK WEATHERTB @ NYY
Wind blowing in 15 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
The wind comes in from left at 15 mph, the side where Yankee Stadium usually gives up cheap homers to right-handed pull hitters. Cloudy skies and 63° keep the air heavy. That takes away easy power for Tampa Bay and New York, so runs need strings of hits. A total of 6.5 already prices in a low-scoring game, which leaves little edge on the under.
P final total 11 vs 6.5 (under lean)
PARK WEATHERMIL @ PHI
Wind blowing in 15 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight
A 15 mph wind straight in from center turns long fly balls into warning-track outs, and 64° air gives the ball no help. Milwaukee and Philadelphia will need line drives and balls on the ground to score. The total of 7 already assumes a quiet game, so it comes down to whether the wind holds all night.
P final total 5 vs 7 (under lean)
TURNOVERSCIN @ PIT
CIN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to PIT's 1.5
CIN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 1.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.88 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCIN @ PIT
CIN: 0 fumbles lost per game to PIT's 1
CIN is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 0.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
PHI: 0 fumbles lost per game to CHI's 1
PHI is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 0.47 over 17 games and CHI at 0.24 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Kaytron Allen (RB) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Kaytron Allen as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Leo Chenal (LB) is questionable for WSH
Chenal (chest) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jeremy Reaves (S) is questionable for WSH
Reaves (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Craig Woodson (S) is questionable for NE
Woodson (shoulder) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Foyesade Oluokun (LB) is questionable for JAX
Oluokun (wrist) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
DaVon Hamilton (DT) is questionable for JAX
Hamilton (back) was a limited participant at the Jaguars' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S) is questionable for ARI
Taylor-Demerson (back) did not participate at the Cardinals' practice Wednesday, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jauan Jennings (WR) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Jauan Jennings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Miles Killebrew (S) is questionable for TB
Killebrew (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Rueben Bain Jr. (LB) is questionable for TB
Bain (groin) was a non-participant at the Buccaneers' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Josiah Trotter (LB) is questionable for TB
Trotter (shoulder) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Chris Moore (WR) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Chris Moore as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
DeMarvion Overshown (LB) is questionable for DAL
Overshown (hamstring) did not participate at practice Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Treydan Stukes (S) is questionable for LV
Stukes (concussion) did not participate at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Nakobe Dean (LB) is questionable for LV
Dean (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Christen Miller (DT) is questionable for NO
Miller (toe) did not participate in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Barion Brown (WR) is questionable for NO
NO lists Barion Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Jonas Sanker (S) is questionable for NO
Sanker (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Nate Landman (LB) is questionable for LAR
Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant in Wednesday's estimated practice, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Omar Speights (LB) is questionable for LAR
Speights (hip) was a limited participant at practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Kamren Kinchens (S) is questionable for LAR
Kinchens (hamstring) did not participate in Wednesday's estimated practice session, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jalen Carter (DT) is questionable for PHI
Carter (wrist) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Andrew Mukuba (S) is questionable for PHI
Mukuba (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Tennessee. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Kiko Mauigoa (LB) is questionable for NYJ
This quadriceps note is from Sep 20, when Mauigoa was questionable to return to a game against the Packers. He got hurt during that game. This week's practice reports will tell you whether he is available for Detroit.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Micah McFadden (LB) is questionable for NYG
McFadden (neck) is inactive for Monday's game against the Rams, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Brian Burns (LB) is questionable for NYG
Burns (ankle) was estimated as a non-participant for the Giants' walkthrough practice Wednesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN (2-0) at PIT (1-1), a division game
CIN is 2-0 and plus-20 on the season, PIT is 1-1 and minus-10, a 30-point gap in scoring margin inside the same division. CIN already has a road win at 1-0 and PIT has held its own house at 1-0, so both marks are unbeaten in their one sample. Two games each is thin, and division games have a way of playing closer than the numbers suggest.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
ARI (1-1) at SF (2-0), a division game
SF is 2-0 and plus-42, ARI is 1-1 and minus-12 after its only loss, a 54-point swing in scoring margin between division rivals. Both have taken care of business so far, SF 1-0 at home and ARI 1-0 on the road. Two games apiece is a small sample, but the gap in how each team has actually played is wide early.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Tyler Nubin (S) is questionable for NYG
Nubin (calf) was estimated as a limited participant for the Giants' walkthrough practice Wednesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Jonathan Allen (DT) is questionable for CIN
Allen (knee) did not participate at practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Nick Emmanwori (S) is questionable for SEA
Emmanwori (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Ty Okada (S) is questionable for SEA
Okada (hamstring) did not participate at the Seahawks' practice Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Brandon Pili (DT) is questionable for SEA
Pili (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Ernest Jones IV (LB) is questionable for SEA
Jones (neck) was a limited participant at the Seahawks' practice Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Frankie Luvu (LB) is questionable for WSH
Luvu (groin) did not participate in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Javon Kinlaw (DT) is questionable for WSH
Kinlaw (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday, John Keim of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) is questionable for NYJ
Fitzpatrick has a groin injury and did not practice Wednesday, per the Sep 24 report. He is a veteran safety at the back of the Jets defense, and missing practice early in the week puts his status for the Detroit game in real doubt. If he sits, a less experienced player takes over deep coverage against Detroit's passing game.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Jaelan Phillips (LB) is questionable for CAR
Phillips (back) did not practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Devin Lloyd (LB) is questionable for CAR
Lloyd (calf) did not participate at the Panthers' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Trevis Gipson (LB) is questionable for CAR
Gipson is being evaluated for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Claudin Cherelus (LB) is questionable for CAR
Cherelus (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons, Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Nick Scott (S) is questionable for CAR
Scott has a rib injury and did not practice Wednesday, per the Sep 23 report. A full day off makes him a true question mark for the Cleveland game. If he can't go, Carolina has to fill a hole at safety. Whether he practices later in the week is the sign to look for.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ed Oliver (DT) is questionable for BUF
Oliver (hip) did not participate in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
T.J. Sanders (DT) is questionable for BUF
Sanders (appendix) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ty Johnson (RB) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists Ty Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Derwin James Jr. (S) is questionable for LAC
James (finger) did not participate at practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is questionable for GB
Cooper (shoulder) was listed as a limited participant on the Packers' estimated injury report Monday. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Javon Hargrave (DT) is questionable for GB
Hargrave (concussion/knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reported Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ NYY
Rays are 7-4 vs Yankees this season
Seven wins in eleven meetings shows Tampa Bay has come out ahead of New York this season, and the last one wasn't close, a 6-1 win for the Rays. Nothing on the sheet points to a specific pitcher or park effect behind it, so this looks like a real trend built over a decent sample. A single game can always flip a series like this one.
HEAD-TO-HEADARI @ COL
Diamondbacks are 7-4 vs Rockies this season
Seven wins in eleven meetings shows Arizona has been the better team against Colorado this season, and the most recent one wasn't close either, a 7-2 win. There's no detail here on which pitchers or parks produced that gap, so it looks like a real trend built over a decent sample rather than a one game story. A series edge like this can still turn fast if a lineup gets hot for a night.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ PHI
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Turang has an .889 OPS against righties over 389 AB and drops to .603 against lefties. Aaron Nola is a right-hander, so Turang hits 3rd with the platoon edge. Nola is a quality starter, so the split helps Turang without making this an easy matchup.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
PACE & SCRIPTNE @ JAX
JAX: 23.5 points per game to NE's 15
NE is at 15 points per game over 2 games; JAX is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 28.8 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.
TRENCHESARI @ SF
SF: 134.5 rushing yards per game to ARI's 93
ARI is at 93 rushing yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 134.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 93.1 over 17 games and SF at 106.9 over 17 games.
COOLING OFFMIN @ SF
Ryan Jeffers: .361 OPS in L15, draws LHP Cesar Perdomo
Jeffers is at .361 over only 31 AB, far below his .812 season mark, and a few hits would change that fast. Cesar Perdomo is a lefty, and Jeffers has an .802 OPS against lefties over 111 AB, close to his season number. His full season is the better guide tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
RED ZONELAC @ BUF
LAC: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to BUF's 77.8%
LAC has held opponents to scores on half their red zone trips through two games, while BUF has let teams in 77.8% of the time. That gap is notable early, though Buffalo's high number could also reflect facing offenses that reached the red zone more often. Two games is still a small window for either rate to be trusted fully. Buffalo looks like the softer unit once teams get close, which matters more here than LAC's own number.
COVERAGEHOU @ IND
HOU: 6.2 yards per play allowed to IND's 7.3
HOU is at 6.2 yards per play allowed over 2 games; IND is at 7.3 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
COVERAGETEN @ NYG
TEN: 5.25 yards per play allowed to NYG's 6.35
TEN is allowing 5.25 yards per play through two games, better than the 6.35 NYG's defense has given up in the same stretch. Both numbers come from just two games, so the gap could tighten as the season goes on. New York's defense has been the more exploitable of the two on a per play basis so far. That's thin enough evidence that it says more about early struggles than which defense is actually better.
COVERAGENE @ JAX
NE: 166 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 236.5
NE has given up just 166 passing yards a game through two contests, well under the 236.5 JAX's defense has allowed. That's a wide early gap, but two games is a small sample for judging a secondary. Jacksonville's pass defense has been the far more attackable of the two, which could matter more for this game than how good New England's number really is. A tougher passing attack will say more about both defenses than these first two weeks have.
COVERAGEBAL @ DAL
BAL: 4.7 yards per play allowed to DAL's 5.8
BAL is at 4.7 yards per play allowed over 2 games; DAL is at 5.8 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Anthony Campbell (DT) is questionable for GB
Campbell (ankle) was listed as a non-participant in Monday's estimated practice report, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Brandon Dorlus (DT) is questionable for ATL
Dorlus (thumb) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Divine Deablo (LB) is questionable for ATL
Deablo was added to the Falcons' injury report and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers due to an illness, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
TB: 184.5 team passing yards per game to MIN's 129.5
MIN is at 129.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; TB is at 184.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 166.7 over 17 games and TB at 205.9 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
DJ Giddens (RB) is questionable for IND
IND lists DJ Giddens as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chop Robinson (LB) is questionable for MIA
Robinson (concussion) was a full participant at practice Wednesday, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Cedric Gray (LB) is questionable for TEN
Gray (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice but is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
COOLING OFFSTL @ PIT
Jordan Walker: .390 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .390 OPS over his last 38 at bats is down sharply from his .802 season mark. That gap over just 15 days points to a cold stretch rather than a change in who he is as a hitter, and 38 at bats can move fast with a couple of good games. Facing Pittsburgh next, the season number remains the more trustworthy read until the recent stretch starts closing the gap.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFSD @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .340 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .340 OPS across 43 at bats over the last 15 days is down from .704 for the season, a steep two week drop. Forty three at bats is a small sample that a few extra base hits could turn around fast. With the Dodgers hosting San Diego next, the last two weeks describe how he's actually hitting right now more accurately than the season line does.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COOLING OFFWSH @ DET
James Wood: .592 OPS in L15, draws LHP Framber Valdez
Wood is at .592 over 43 AB against an .897 season mark, and 43 AB is short for a hitter this good. Framber Valdez is a lefty, and Wood has an .814 OPS against lefties over 185 AB, below his overall mark but solid. His season numbers are the better guide tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COVERAGEATL @ GB
ATL: 33.3% third downs allowed to GB's 47.1%
ATL has held opponents to a 33.3% third down rate through two games, notably better than the 47.1% GB has allowed. Green Bay's defense has been letting offenses move the chains at a high clip early on. Two games is a short runway for either number, so both could look different a month from now. Atlanta's third down defense is the sharper of the two right now, which matters for how this game's third downs are likely to go.
PASS RUSHSEA @ WSH
WSH: 0.5 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 14
SEA is at 14 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 14.3 over 17 games and WSH at 12.5 over 17 games.
COOLING OFFMIA @ CHC
Kyle Stowers: .451 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .451 OPS across 47 at bats over the last 15 days is down from .773 for the season. That's a real dip, but 47 at bats is still a short window that a good week could erase. With Miami at Chicago next, the season mark is the more useful number for gauging what he can do at the plate until this stretch corrects.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
GB: 6 yards per pass attempt to ATL's 4.1
ATL is at 4.1 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; GB is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 6.21 over 17 games and GB at 6.85 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ DAL
BAL: 31:18 time of possession per game to DAL's 25:56
BAL is at 31:18 time of possession per game over 2 games; DAL is at 25:56 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 29:11 over 17 games and DAL at 30:48 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 45.5% third-down conversion rate to NE's 32.1%
NE is at 32.1% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; JAX is at 45.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 42.9% over 17 games and JAX at 39.2% over 17 games.
PASS RUSHKC @ MIA
KC: 11.5 sack yards lost per game to MIA's 25
KC is at 11.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; MIA is at 25 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and MIA at 19.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
TEN: 35 penalty yards per game to NYG's 67
TEN is at 35 penalty yards per game over 2 games; NYG is at 67 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 59.5 over 17 games and NYG at 63.2 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 5.95 yards per pass attempt to PIT's 4.05
CIN is at 5.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; PIT is at 4.05 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 5.81 over 17 games and PIT at 5.99 over 17 games.
TRENCHESLAC @ BUF
BUF: 144.5 rushing yards per game to LAC's 104
LAC is at 104 rushing yards per game over 2 games; BUF is at 144.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 121.6 over 17 games and BUF at 159.6 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
IND: 26.5 points per game to HOU's 18.5
HOU is at 18.5 points per game over 2 games; IND is at 26.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and IND at 27.4 over 17 games.
HEAT CHECKTB @ NYY
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.226 OPS in Last 15 Days
Victor Mesa Jr. has a 1.226 OPS over the last 15 days in 37 at-bats, up 0.404 on his .822 season mark. His total-bases line is 0.5, so one base cashes it. Thirty-seven at-bats is a short window to be paying a premium for.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Isaac Seumalo (G) is questionable for ARI
Seumalo (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) is reserve-dnr for SF
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Sunday that he's not viewing Aiyuk as an option for the 49ers while the club contends with multiple injuries at receiver, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jordan Watkins (WR) is inactive for SF
Watkins (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Dolphins. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Eddy Pineiro (PK) is questionable for SF
Pineiro (illness) is expected to be active Sunday against the Dolphins, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Tyler Goodson (RB) is inactive for DAL
Goodson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Commanders, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Kendre Miller (RB) is inactive for NO
Miller (coach's decision) is listed as inactive Sunday in Baltimore. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Davis Allen (TE) is questionable for LAR
Allen is getting examined for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Thursday's matchup with the 49ers. Reported Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Elijah Moore (WR) is inactive for PHI
Moore (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans. Reported Sep 20.
QUARTERBACKSEA @ WSH
Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA
In his first 2026 game, Sam Darnold threw for 13 passing yards, completed 50% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in. Sam Darnold is also listed q for this matchup.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ CHI
Caleb Williams is the projected starting quarterback for CHI
Through 2 games in 2026, Caleb Williams threw for 407 passing yards, completed 65.5% of his passes and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3942 yards, completed 58.1% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 27-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in. Caleb Williams is also listed d for this matchup.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Skyler Bell (WR) is inactive for BUF
Bell (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game versus Detroit. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Donovan Jennings (G) is questionable for GB
Jennings (hand) did not participate in Monday's estimated practice, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Josh Whyle (TE) is questionable for GB
Whyle (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 13.
COOLING OFFTOR @ BAL
Ernie Clement: .319 OPS in Last 15 Days
Clement has barely hit over 42 at-bats, 0.341 below his .660 season mark. That is too few at-bats to call it a new level, and a return to .660 still isn't much production. In Baltimore, the season line is the fair expectation, and it gives no reason to bet on a breakout.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 23 first downs per game to ARI's 16.5
ARI is at 16.5 first downs per game over 2 games; SF is at 23 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 19.5 over 17 games and SF at 22.3 over 17 games.
COVERAGEATL @ GB
GB: 175 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 239
ATL is at 239 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; GB is at 175 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 38.9% third-down conversion rate to DEN's 26.1%
LAR is at 38.9% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 26.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 39.6% over 17 games and DEN at 41.2% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
CJ Williams (WR) is inactive for JAX
Williams (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Broncos, John Oehser of the Jaguars' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
PARK WEATHERWSH @ DET
Wind blowing in 14 mph at Comerica Park tonight
A 14 mph wind in from left on a 62-degree night should keep fly balls in the park at Comerica. Washington and Detroit will need strings of hits to score. The 7.5 total already expects a quiet night, so any under case depends on the wind holding, and you should check it again near first pitch.
P final total 6 vs 7.5 (under lean)
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Reggie Gilliam (FB) is questionable for NE
Gilliam (knee) was a limited participant at the Patriots' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Sam Cosmi (G) is questionable for WSH
Cosmi suffered a concussion in Sunday's 37-20 loss to the Cowboys, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 22.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ BOS
Angel Martinez: 1.182 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.182 OPS over his last 33 at bats is well above his .753 season mark, a swing of better than four tenths of a point. That comes with 17 home runs on the season, so there's real pop behind the stretch. Thirty three at bats is a small sample, and a gain this size rarely holds at that level. With the total bases line at just 0.5 tonight against Boston, that's a low bar even for a hitter running this hot off a short sample.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ ATL
Elly De La Cruz: 1.195 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.195 OPS over his last 46 at bats is up from an already high .881 season mark, a smaller jump than most in this group since he was already hitting well. He has 28 home runs this year, the most here, backing up the power. Forty six at bats is a real two week sample, enough to mean something without being the whole season. With the total bases line at 1.5 tonight against Atlanta, this hot stretch sits closer to his season form than most others do.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 21 first downs per game to CLE's 14.5
CAR is at 21 first downs per game over 2 games; CLE is at 14.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 18 over 17 games and CLE at 15.8 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Brandon Coleman (G) is questionable for WSH
Coach Dan Quinn said Monday that "all signs look good to go" regarding Coleman's (finger) odds of being available in Week 3, JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Luke McCaffrey (WR) is inactive for WSH
McCaffrey (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Cowboys. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA
Head coach Mike Macdonald said Wednesday that the Seahawks won't open Charbonnet's (knee) practice window this week, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Chris Lindstrom (G) is questionable for ATL
Lindstrom (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
PACE & SCRIPTLAC @ BUF
LAC @ BUF carries a 50.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 50.5, 7 points above the 43.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.
PLATOON EDGETB @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Garcia's .884 against righties comes from 421 AB, a large sample, while his .629 against lefties comes from just 81. Mason Englert is a right-hander, so Garcia hits 3rd on his strong side. Most of his at-bats come against righties, so the .884 is a fair picture of what to expect.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFTOR @ BAL
Ernie Clement: .319 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .319 OPS over his last 42 at bats is down from a .660 season mark that wasn't high to begin with. That's a real slide over 15 days, though 42 at bats is still a thin sample that can move fast with a couple of hot games. With Toronto playing Baltimore next, there's little cushion in this matchup until his bat comes back to life given how modest the season baseline already is.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TRENCHESMIN @ TB
TB: 5 yards per rush attempt to MIN's 3.7
MIN is at 3.7 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; TB is at 5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 4.46 over 17 games and TB at 4.05 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Fernando Carmona (G) is questionable for TEN
Carmona suffered a shoulder injury during Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Eagles, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
COOLING OFFMIN @ SF
Royce Lewis: .355 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .355 OPS over his last 47 at bats is down from .670 for the season. Forty seven at bats is enough to notice but still a short window, so this reads as a cold two weeks rather than a permanent step down. With Minnesota playing San Francisco next, the recent stretch should carry more weight in this matchup until his numbers climb back toward .670.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 24 first downs per game to LV's 17.5
LV is at 17.5 first downs per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 15.1 over 17 games and NO at 18.8 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jalen Tolbert (WR) is inactive for MIA
Tolbert (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the 49ers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Isaiah Adams (G) is questionable for ARI
Adams (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Reggie Virgil (WR) is inactive for ARI
Virgil (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Seahawks. Reported Sep 20.
PASS RUSHTEN @ NYG
NYG: 1 sack yards lost per game to TEN's 13.5
TEN is at 13.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 26.1 over 17 games and NYG at 13.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
MIN: 20 penalty yards per game to TB's 50.5
MIN is at 20 penalty yards per game over 2 games; TB is at 50.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 52.1 over 17 games and TB at 43.4 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU: 3 fourth-down attempts per game to IND's 1.5
HOU is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and IND at 1.59 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to IND's 1
HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and IND at 0.82 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 49.5 penalty yards per game to ARI's 79.5
ARI is at 79.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 49.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 49.5 over 17 games and SF at 38.3 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
CHI: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to PHI's 0.5
PHI is at 0.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; CHI is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 1.24 over 17 games and CHI at 1.71 over 17 games.
COOLING OFFCHW @ KC
Colson Montgomery: .406 OPS in L15, draws RHP Seth Lugo
Colson Montgomery's .406 OPS over the last 15 days covers 41 at-bats, down 0.299 from his .705 season mark. He draws right-hander Seth Lugo, the side listed as his weaker one at .660 across 381 at-bats. The season split has volume; the cold spell does not.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RED ZONECIN @ PIT
PIT: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to CIN's 25%
PIT hasn't allowed a red zone touchdown in two games, a perfect mark that's still just a two-game sample. CIN has been solid too, allowing scores on a quarter of its red zone trips. A 0% rate this early usually has more to do with limited red zone chances than a defense that can't be scored on. If Pittsburgh holds up again here, it will say more about the trend than these first two games alone can.
TRENCHESLAR @ DEN
LAR: 113 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 157.5
LAR is allowing 113 rushing yards a game through two games, well under the 157.5 DEN's defense has given up. Denver's run defense has clearly been the softer of the two early on. Two games is a limited sample for run defense numbers, which can swing hard depending on which offenses a team has faced. The real test for LA comes against an offense that can consistently run the ball.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BOS
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 5th against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Bazzana has an .834 OPS against righties over 296 AB and .545 against lefties over 131 AB, enough to trust the split. Sonny Gray is a righty, so Bazzana hits 5th on his good side. His value peaks while Gray is in the game and drops if a lefty reliever comes in late.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
COVERAGECIN @ PIT
PIT: 25% third downs allowed to CIN's 37%
CIN is at 37% third downs allowed over 2 games; PIT is at 25% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
HEAT CHECKWSH @ DET
Spencer Torkelson: 1.085 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.085 OPS over his last 40 at bats is well above his .753 season mark. He's hit 25 home runs this year, so the surge fits a hitter with real power in his profile. Forty at bats is a short window, and a jump of this size usually fades back toward the season line over time. The total bases number sits at just 0.5 tonight against Washington, a low bar even before factoring in how hot he's been.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Malik Muhammad II (CB) is questionable for CHI
Muhammad (ankle) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
PASS RUSHCIN @ PIT
CIN: 17 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 29
CIN is at 17 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; PIT is at 29 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 14.1 over 17 games and PIT at 14.8 over 17 games.
COVERAGEATL @ GB
GB: 3.95 yards per play allowed to ATL's 4.9
ATL is at 4.9 yards per play allowed over 2 games; GB is at 3.95 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Graham Mertz (QB) is on injured reserve for HOU
Knee - ACL
COVERAGEKC @ MIA
KC: 162.5 passing yards allowed per game to MIA's 223.5
KC is at 162.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 223.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
RED ZONEBAL @ DAL
DAL: 85.7% red-zone scoring rate to BAL's 66.7%
BAL is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DAL is at 85.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 47.5% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.
TEAM RECORDARI @ SF
NFC WEST game: ARI 0-1, SF 1-0 in the division
SF is 1-0 in the NFC West and ARI is 0-1, but each mark is just one division game this early in the season. A single result this early doesn't reveal much about how either team handles conference play, and division games tend to run tighter than the raw record shows since both sides know each other well. Heading into ARI at SF, that split is a small early data point rather than a settled trend.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ DET
Max Clark (bats L) hits 6th against Richard Lovelady (LHP)
Clark hits lefties better than righties, which is unusual for a left-handed batter. The .998 against lefties comes from 52 at-bats, half his 108 against righties, so it will probably come down. Tonight's matchup with Lovelady favors him, but the .689 is the steadier guide to how good he is.
P 1-for-2, 2 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
D.J. Reed (CB) is questionable for DET
Reed (foot) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against Buffalo. Reported Sep 16.
HEAT CHECKMIL @ PHI
Brice Turang: 1.162 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.162 OPS over his last 37 at bats is well above his .801 season mark, a solid two week run. He has 19 home runs this season, so there's more than just singles behind the number. Thirty seven at bats is still a short sample, and surges like this tend to settle back toward the season level. With the total bases line at just 0.5 tonight against Philadelphia, that's a low bar set against a hitter who's been running hot.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
COVERAGELV @ NO
LV: 29.2% third downs allowed to NO's 40.9%
LV has held opponents to a 29.2% third down rate through two games, better than the 40.9% NO has allowed. That gap is notable this early, though two games isn't enough to call either defense's identity settled. New Orleans has been the more exploitable defense on third down so far. Las Vegas's number is the one due for a real test once tougher offenses show up on the schedule.
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ CHI
CHI: 31 points per game to PHI's 24
PHI is at 24 points per game over 2 games; CHI is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and CHI at 25.9 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLV @ NO
NO: 75 offensive plays per game to LV's 63.5
LV is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NO is at 75 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 55.8 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ BOS
Travis Bazzana: 1.062 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.062 OPS over his last 38 at bats is well above his .746 season mark. He has 15 home runs this season, the fewest in this group, so the recent surge is doing more work than his power profile alone would suggest. Thirty eight at bats is a short sample, and a jump like this usually cools back toward the season number. The total bases line sits at 1.5 tonight against Boston, a number leaning more on this hot stretch holding than on his season long form.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
PACE & SCRIPTNE @ JAX
NE: 8 points allowed per game to JAX's 15
NE is at 8 points allowed per game over 2 games; JAX is at 15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.
PARK WEATHERMIA @ CHC
Wind blowing in 13 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Wrigley Field has wind at 13 mph in from right field, partly cloudy and 63 degrees, with the total at 6.5. A 13 mph wind blowing in knocks down anything hit in the air. The low total says the market has priced the conditions.
P final total 5 vs 6.5 (under lean)
PACE & SCRIPTTEN @ NYG
NYG: 61.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 50
TEN is at 50 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NYG is at 61.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and NYG at 63.8 over 17 games.
STARTER FORMMIL @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 1.33 ERA over his last 3 starts
A 1.33 ERA over his last three starts comes with 20.1 innings, three earned runs, and 12 strikeouts, real length and real results rather than a short outing propping up the number. That mark sits over three runs below his 4.49 season ERA, a big swing given how deep he's working into games. Three starts is still a small sample against a full season, so some drift back toward his season number is reasonable to expect. For MIL @ PHI, he's currently outperforming his season line without any guarantee that pace simply repeats.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSATL @ GB
GB: 5.15 yards per play to ATL's 4.25
Green Bay has a modest edge in yards per play over Atlanta through two games, but both offenses are down from last season, Atlanta from 5.38 to 4.25, Green Bay from 5.61 to 5.15. Atlanta had only one play of 20-plus yards in its last game, while Green Bay had three, part of why the Packers' number sits a bit higher right now. With both teams below where they finished a year ago, two games is a small window to call this a real gap. Expect this one to lean on field position and short drives more than one side pulling away through the air.
RED ZONEMIN @ TB
MIN: 14.3% red-zone scoring allowed to TB's 37.5%
MIN is at 14.3% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; TB is at 37.5% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PARK WEATHERCLE @ BOS
Wind blowing in 13 mph at Fenway Park tonight
At 56° with a 13 mph wind in from center, fly balls to center and the gaps will die. The Green Monster is still reachable on a line, so hard doubles off the wall count for more than fly balls. The total of 6.5 says the market already expects heavy air, so check how each lineup makes contact before leaning under.
P final total 1 vs 6.5 (under lean)
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 44.8% third-down conversion rate to SEA's 33.3%
SEA is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; WSH is at 44.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 39.8% over 17 games and WSH at 37.6% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Tanner Arkin (TE) is inactive for NE
Arkin (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Robert Spillane (LB) is questionable for NE
Spillane (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable for NE
NE lists Carlton Davis III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Dametrious Crownover (OT) is questionable for NE
NE lists Dametrious Crownover as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
TRENCHESATL @ GB
ATL: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to GB's 3.3
ATL is at 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; GB is at 3.3 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 4.39 over 17 games and GB at 4.21 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Odafe Oweh (LB) is questionable for WSH
Oweh (calf) was a limited participant at the Commanders' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Charles Omenihu (DE) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Charles Omenihu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Dorance Armstrong (DE) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Dorance Armstrong as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ BAL
Colton Cowser (bats L) hits 6th against Max Scherzer (RHP)
Cowser's .725 against right-handers comes from 275 at-bats, a sample you can trust, while his .452 against lefties rests on just 56. Scherzer puts him on his good side. From the 6th spot he gets fewer trips to the plate, so any prop depends on how many times he bats as much as on the matchup.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jalen Milroe (QB) is inactive for SEA
Milroe (coach's decision) will be the emergency third quarterback for the Wednesday night matchup with the Patriots. Reported Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Tory Horton (WR) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Tory Horton as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Chauncey Golston (DE) is questionable for NYG
NYG lists Chauncey Golston as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Kylen Granson (TE) is inactive for TEN
Granson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against Philadelphia. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
JuJu Brents (CB) is questionable for MIA
MIA lists JuJu Brents as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
L'Jarius Sneed (CB) is questionable for KC
KC lists L'Jarius Sneed as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Felix Anudike-Uzomah (DE) is questionable for KC
KC lists Felix Anudike-Uzomah as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Logan Hall (DE) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Logan Hall as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
TRENCHESLAR @ DEN
LAR: 5 yards per rush attempt to DEN's 3.9
LAR is at 5 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 3.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 4.69 over 17 games and DEN at 4.45 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Trent Brown (OT) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Trent Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Jadeveon Clowney (DE) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Jadeveon Clowney as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
BATTER VS ARMSD @ LAD
Xander Bogaerts vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .462
Bogaerts is 6-for-13 with one walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 13 career at-bats, a 1.346 OPS. He comes in hot at a .965 OPS over the last 15 days. Thirteen at-bats is a small base, and the head-to-head is the kind of note that gets remembered.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Blake Miller (OT) is questionable for DET
DET lists Blake Miller as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
HEAT CHECKSTL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe: 1.096 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lowe's run over 41 AB sits on an .819 season mark, and his 33 home runs are the most in this group, so the power is part of who he is. Expect a mild pullback toward .819. His total-bases line at PIT is 0.5, so one hit clears it, a modest bar for his profile.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Ahmed Hassanein (DE) is questionable for DET
DET lists Ahmed Hassanein as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
HEAT CHECKSTL @ PIT
Rafael Flores Jr.: 1.194 OPS in Last 15 Days
Flores has done this over 39 AB on top of an excellent .895 season, so the floor is high. His 10 home runs show less pop than the OPS suggests. His total-bases line at PIT is 1.5, which needs extra bases or two hits, and the modest power makes that tougher than it looks.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Jamien Sherwood (LB) is questionable for NYJ
Sherwood was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice due to a knee injury. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Tytus Howard (OT) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Tytus Howard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAA @ OAK
Athletics are 7-5 vs Angels this season
Seven wins in twelve meetings gives Oakland the edge in this season series, though at 7-5 it's closer to even than dominant. The last game was a 9-7 slugfest the A's won, another sign these two have played close, high scoring games. With margins this tight, this looks more like two evenly matched teams than a real edge for either side.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Noah Igbinoghene (CB) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Noah Igbinoghene as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE) is inactive for CAR
Sanders (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Jordan Hancock (CB) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists Jordan Hancock as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Cole Bishop (S) is questionable for BUF
Bishop (groin) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Lions. Reported Sep 16.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
IND: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to HOU's 33.3%
HOU is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; IND is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 57.9% over 17 games and IND at 66.7% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Rashawn Slater (OT) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Rashawn Slater as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Rodney Shelley (CB) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Rodney Shelley as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Trey Pipkins III (OT) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Trey Pipkins III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Deane Leonard (CB) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Deane Leonard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Anthony Belton (OT) is questionable for GB
GB lists Anthony Belton as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Benjamin St-Juste (CB) is questionable for GB
GB lists Benjamin St-Juste as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Devonte Wyatt (DT) is questionable for GB
Wyatt (ankle) was a limited participant at the Packers' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 16.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 7.7 yards per pass attempt to NE's 6.15
NE is at 6.15 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; JAX is at 7.7 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 7.99 over 17 games and JAX at 6.42 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to LV's 66.7%
LV is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; NO is at 100% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 40.6% over 17 games and NO at 41.2% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Terrel Bernard (LB) is questionable for BUF
Bernard (calf) was a limited participant in Tuesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NYJ's 66.7%
NYJ is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; DET is at 100% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 43.9% over 17 games and DET at 58.1% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Brandon Cisse (CB) is questionable for GB
GB lists Brandon Cisse as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate to DEN's 0%
LAR is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and DEN at 50% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Xavier Woods (S) is questionable for CHI
Woods (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice session. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Marcus Epps (S) is questionable for PHI
Epps (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Commanders. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Alaric Jackson (OT) is questionable for LAR
LAR lists Alaric Jackson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Kam Curl (S) is questionable for LAR
Curl (ankle) is questionable to return to Thursday's game against the 49ers, Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times reports. Reported Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Alvin Kamara (RB) is questionable for NO
NO lists Alvin Kamara as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Devontez Walker (WR) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Devontez Walker as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jacob Parrish (CB) is questionable for TB
TB lists Jacob Parrish as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Sean Tucker (RB) is questionable for TB
TB lists Sean Tucker as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 25
BDL lists 3 covered college games on the next college slate. All 3 kickoff times are confirmed.
STARTER FORMNYM @ TEX
Cody Bradford: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
Bradford has allowed 11 earned runs in 13.2 innings, and his 1.83 WHIP is up from an already high 1.50 for the season. Traffic has been a problem for a while and has gotten worse. His 4.19 season ERA is a fairer baseline, but that WHIP leaves less room for a rebound. Against the Mets, expect men on base and a short outing.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Andrew Van Ginkel (LB) is questionable for MIN
Van Ginkel (chest) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Brian O'Neill (OT) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Brian O'Neill as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Blake Cashman (LB) is questionable for MIN
Cashman (wrist) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Nick Samac (C) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Nick Samac as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Hjalte Froholdt (C) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Hjalte Froholdt as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jack Gibbens (LB) is questionable for ARI
Gibbens (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Robert Hainsey (C) is questionable for JAX
JAX lists Robert Hainsey as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Cole Van Lanen (OT) is questionable for JAX
JAX lists Cole Van Lanen as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Tanner Koziol (TE) is inactive for JAX
Koziol (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Broncos, John Oehser of the Jaguars' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Morgan Moses (OT) is questionable for NE
NE lists Morgan Moses as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSMIN @ TB
TB: 5.2 yards per play to MIN's 4.35
Tampa Bay is out-gaining Minnesota by close to a yard a play through two games. Tampa's number is right in line with last season's 5.12, so that looks like their normal level, while Minnesota has dipped from 4.82 a year ago to 4.35 now. That is only two games for the Vikings, so it could firm up as the season goes. If Minnesota keeps struggling to move the ball efficiently, this is a spot where their defense and field position matter more than their offense pulling ahead.
RED ZONELAC @ BUF
BUF: 4 red-zone trips per game to LAC's 2.5
LAC is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; BUF is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 3.35 over 17 games and BUF at 3.82 over 17 games.
RED ZONENYJ @ DET
DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3
NYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; DET is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.
RED ZONECIN @ PIT
CIN: 50% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 33.3%
CIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; PIT is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 66.7% over 17 games and PIT at 58.8% over 17 games.
RED ZONECIN @ PIT
CIN: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 1.5
CIN is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 3.18 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.
RED ZONEMIN @ TB
TB: 4 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2.5
MIN is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; TB is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and TB at 2.94 over 17 games.
RED ZONEHOU @ IND
HOU: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to IND's 3
HOU is at 4.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; IND is at 3 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 3.18 over 17 games and IND at 3.88 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 46.7% third-down conversion rate to MIA's 36%
KC is at 46.7% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 36% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 37.4% over 17 games and MIA at 34.9% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 243 team passing yards per game to DEN's 201.5
LAR is at 243 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DEN is at 201.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and DEN at 223.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 7.95 yards per pass attempt to DEN's 6.45
LAR is at 7.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 6.45 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and DEN at 5.99 over 17 games.
TRENCHESCAR @ CLE
CAR: 96.5 rushing yards per game to CLE's 65.5
CAR is at 96.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; CLE is at 65.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 116.3 over 17 games and CLE at 97 over 17 games.
TRENCHESTEN @ NYG
TEN: 4.55 yards per rush attempt to NYG's 3.5
TEN is at 4.55 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; NYG is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 4.19 over 17 games and NYG at 4.31 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Ozzy Trapilo (OT) is inactive for CHI
Trapilo (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
David Bailey (LB) is questionable for NYJ
NYJ lists David Bailey as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Thomas Harper (S) is questionable for DET
DET lists Thomas Harper as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Jake Hummel (LB) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Jake Hummel as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chris Jones (DT) is questionable for KC
KC lists Chris Jones as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Nicholas Singleton (RB) is inactive for TEN
Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Jets. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
James Williams Sr. (LB) is questionable for TEN
TEN lists James Williams Sr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Solomon Thomas (DT) is questionable for TEN
TEN lists Solomon Thomas as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Najee Harris (RB) is inactive for NYG
Harris (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Shelby Harris (DT) is questionable for NYG
NYG lists Shelby Harris as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
B.J. Hill (DT) is questionable for CIN
CIN lists B.J. Hill as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Treylon Burks (WR) is inactive for WSH
Burks (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Eagles. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Tyler Owens (S) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Tyler Owens as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Percy Butler (S) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Percy Butler as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Quintayvious Hutchins (LB) is questionable for NE
NE lists Quintayvious Hutchins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Andrew Billings (DT) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Andrew Billings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
MIN (2-0) at TB (0-2)
MIN is 2-0 and plus-23, with a road win already banked at 1-0. TB is 0-2 and minus-10, including a loss at home at 0-1, so its trouble isn't limited to being away from home this year. The 33-point scoring margin gap is real, but it's still built on two games apiece.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
SEA (2-0) at WSH (0-2)
SEA is 2-0 and plus-27, already 1-0 on the road, while WSH is 0-2 and minus-19 without a home game played yet this season. That's a 46-point gap in scoring margin between the two through two weeks. WSH's home number is simply unproven, so there's no read yet on whether the losing skid looks different in front of its own crowd.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC (2-0) at MIA (0-2)
KC is 2-0 and plus-24, MIA is 0-2 and minus-36, a 60-point gap in scoring margin, the widest split on the board this week. Neither team has a logged home or road game yet this season, so there's no split to lean on there. Two games each is still a short sample, but the difference between a team rolling and one getting outscored is about as clear as it gets this early.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR (1-1) at CLE (1-1)
CAR and CLE both sit at 1-1 with a win last time out, but the scoring margins tell different stories, CAR at plus-9 and CLE at minus-20. CAR already banked a road win at 1-0, while CLE hasn't played at home yet this season, leaving that number untested. The matching records hide a real gap in how each team has actually played through two games.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
LAC (0-2) at BUF (2-0)
BUF is 2-0 and plus-15, LAC is 0-2 and minus-24, a 39-point gap in scoring margin through two weeks each. BUF has already taken care of business at home at 1-0, while LAC hasn't played on the road yet this season. Two games each is still a short sample, but the early split favors BUF clearly so far.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
ATL (0-2) at GB (1-1)
ATL is 0-2 and minus-38, well off the pace in scoring margin, and already 0-1 on the road. GB sits a game better at 1-1 and minus-14, having won its last game after opening 0-1, though GB hasn't played at home yet this season so that number is untested. ATL's minus-38 through two games points to a rough start more than a fixed identity this early.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Roy Lopez (DT) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Roy Lopez as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jordan James (RB) is inactive for SF
James (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 10.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET has 3 more days of rest
Detroit has three extra days on this one, six days of rest compared to the Jets' three. New York is playing on a short week, which usually cuts into practice reps and time to install a full game plan. That extra rest for Detroit can mean a healthier, more prepared roster heading in. Short weeks tend to show up early, so keep an eye on how the Jets look out of the gate.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF has 3 more days of rest
Buffalo gets three extra days to prepare, six days of rest against the Chargers' three. LA is working a short week, which usually means less practice time and a quicker turnaround on the game plan. Extra rest tends to help with health and preparation for a specific opponent. Watch how the Chargers handle the compressed schedule early in the game.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
De'Zhaun Stribling (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Demond Claiborne (RB) is inactive for MIN
Claiborne (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Packers, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jake Golday (LB) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Jake Golday as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jalen Redmond (DT) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Jalen Redmond as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Anthony Nelson (LB) is questionable for TB
TB lists Anthony Nelson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jonathan Greenard (LB) is questionable for PHI
PHI lists Jonathan Greenard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
PASS RUSHTEN @ NYG
TEN: 1.5 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 0.5
TEN is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; NYG is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PASS RUSHLAR @ DEN
DEN: 2 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1
LAR is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Teddye Buchanan (LB) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Teddye Buchanan as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Nnamdi Madubuike (DT) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Nnamdi Madubuike as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Elijah Sarratt (WR) is inactive for BAL
Sarratt (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Trey Hendrickson (LB) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Trey Hendrickson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Malaki Starks (S) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Malaki Starks as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Zion Young (LB) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Zion Young as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Tyler Badie (RB) is inactive for DEN
Badie (coach's decision) is inactive for Monday's game against the Chiefs, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Folorunso Fatukasi (DT) is questionable for LV
LV lists Folorunso Fatukasi as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Isaiah Stalbird (LB) is questionable for NO
NO lists Isaiah Stalbird as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Nathan Shepherd (DT) is questionable for NO
NO lists Nathan Shepherd as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Tutu Atwell (WR) is inactive for LAR
Atwell (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's tilt against the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR
The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
PASS RUSHPHI @ CHI
CHI: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1.5
PHI is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; CHI is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PASS RUSHSEA @ WSH
WSH: 0.5 sacks taken per game to SEA's 1.5
SEA is at 1.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 2.08 over 17 games and WSH at 2.31 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 2 sacks taken per game to LAC's 3
LAC is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; BUF is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 3.75 over 17 games and BUF at 2.86 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
HOU: 32:44 time of possession per game to IND's 28:50
HOU is at 32:44 time of possession per game over 2 games; IND is at 28:50 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and IND at 29:37 over 17 games.
PARK WEATHERSTL @ PIT
Wind blowing in 12 mph at PNC Park tonight
PNC Park already plays big to left-center, and a 12 mph wind in from center at 63° makes long fly balls even less likely to leave. Hitters who drive the ball up the middle lose the most. The total is 7.5, a half run above the other wind-in games, so the market is giving this one room. That gap is the angle if the wind decides the scoring.
P final total 6 vs 7.5 (under lean)
PARK WEATHERTOR @ BAL
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight
A 12 mph wind straight in from center on a 62-degree night should knock down the deep fly balls that usually leave Camden Yards. Scoring will have to come from singles, walks and doubles in the gaps. The 7.5 total already expects that, so check the wind again before first pitch.
P final total 6 vs 7.5 (under lean)
PARK WEATHERTOR @ BAL
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight
A 12 mph wind in from center at 62 degrees makes Camden Yards play big, so deep drives to center should stay in. At 8, this total is a bit higher than the air suggests, which gives the under some room if the wind holds. The wind is the whole case, so confirm it near first pitch.
P final total 6 vs 8 (under lean)
BALLPARKMIA @ CHC
Kevin Gausman's ERA jumps to 6.75 at Wrigley Field
A 6.75 ERA at Wrigley comes from just five starts and 24 innings, with hitters batting .300 off him there, well off the 4.20 he's run over 148 innings everywhere else. That's too few outings to call a real park effect, more like a couple of bad nights inflating the number. He starts at Wrigley tonight, the exact spot on the sheet, but the much larger road sample says his true form is closer to 4.20 than 6.75.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
TRENCHESLV @ NO
LV: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 136.5
LV is at 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 136.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
CHI: 21.5 first downs per game to PHI's 16.5
PHI is at 16.5 first downs per game over 2 games; CHI is at 21.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 18 over 17 games and CHI at 21.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 22 first downs per game to NE's 17
NE is at 17 first downs per game over 2 games; JAX is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 21.2 over 17 games and JAX at 20.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 25 first downs per game to NYJ's 20
NYJ is at 20 first downs per game over 2 games; DET is at 25 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 16 over 17 games and DET at 20.4 over 17 games.
COVERAGELAR @ DEN
LAR: 4.6 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.4
LAR is allowing 4.6 yards per play through two games, tighter than the 5.4 DEN's defense has given up. Denver's defense has been the leakier of the two on a per snap basis early in the season. Both numbers come from just two games, so there's still plenty of room for either to move. Los Angeles looks like the stronger unit right now, for whatever two games are worth.
COVERAGELAR @ DEN
LAR: 38.5% third downs allowed to DEN's 48.3%
LAR has allowed a 38.5% third down rate through two games, better than the 48.3% DEN's defense has given up. Denver has struggled more to get off the field on third down early this season. Two games is a small sample, so this gap deserves a second look rather than full trust. LA's third down defense currently looks like the sturdier side of this matchup.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Kendal Daniels (LB) is questionable for ATL
ATL lists Kendal Daniels as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
J. Michael Sturdivant (WR) is inactive for GB
Sturdivant (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Tuli Tuipulotu (LB) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Tuli Tuipulotu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Patrick Jones II (LB) is questionable for CAR
CAR lists Patrick Jones II as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
John Metchie III (WR) is inactive for CAR
Metchie (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's regular-season opener against the Bears, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Bobby Brown III (DT) is questionable for CAR
CAR lists Bobby Brown III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Jonathon Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for CAR
Brooks is expected to undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a core-muscle injury and is likely to miss at least six weeks, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Grant Delpit (S) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Grant Delpit as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Mason Graham (DT) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Mason Graham as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Quincy Williams (LB) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Quincy Williams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
D'Angelo Ponds (CB) is inactive for NYJ
Ponds (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Omar Cooper Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 19.
REGRESSIONMIN @ SF
Jonah Cox: .272 AVG vs .216 xBA
Cox is getting better results than his contact has earned: a .320 wOBA when the quality of his batted balls points to .265. It's only 153 plate appearances, so a few bloop hits and seeing-eye grounders can inflate a line like this. Gaps this size tend to shrink as the at-bats pile up, so his current line probably makes him look like a better hitter than he is. For tonight's MIN @ SF game, value him by the .216 xBA and .265 xwOBA more than by the .272 average when you look at his hit or on-base numbers.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 213.5 team passing yards per game to PIT's 175
CIN is at 213.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; PIT is at 175 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 235.6 over 17 games and PIT at 202.4 over 17 games.
TRENCHESNYJ @ DET
DET: 4.15 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.2
NYJ is at 3.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DET is at 4.15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 4.53 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ GB
ATL: 30:48 time of possession per game to GB's 27:00
ATL is at 30:48 time of possession per game over 2 games; GB is at 27:00 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ATL was at 30:00 over 17 games and GB at 29:48 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTSEA @ WSH
WSH: 67 offensive plays per game to SEA's 57.5
SEA is at 57.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; WSH is at 67 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 59.7 over 17 games and WSH at 58.2 over 17 games.
STARTER FORMWSH @ DET
Framber Valdez: 1.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Eighteen innings, three earned runs, and 13 strikeouts over his last three starts is what built Framber Valdez's 1.50 ERA, a real workload behind the number, not a short outing. That mark sits 2.56 runs under his 4.06 season ERA. Three starts is a small sample against a full season, so some regression back toward that season number is reasonable. For WSH @ DET, that's a pitcher currently working well beyond his usual level.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Tucker Addington (LS) is questionable for MIA
MIA lists Tucker Addington as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Teven Jenkins (G) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Teven Jenkins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Tyrel Dodson (LB) is inactive for CAR
Dodson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Ke'Shawn Williams (WR) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Ke'Shawn Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Montorie Foster Jr. (WR) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Montorie Foster Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Brady Russell (FB) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Brady Russell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
John Simpson (G) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists John Simpson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Camden Brown (WR) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Camden Brown as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
CJ Daniels (WR) is inactive for LAR
LAR lists CJ Daniels as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Shemar Turner (DT) is pup-r for CHI
The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSPHI @ CHI
CHI: 6.05 yards per play to PHI's 5.35
Chicago is averaging seven tenths of a yard more per play than Philadelphia through two games. Both offenses are actually up slightly from last season, Philadelphia from 5.27 to 5.35, Chicago from 5.71 to 6.05, so neither side is falling off, Chicago has just taken a bigger step early. Two games is a small sample to lean on for either offense. If Chicago's efficiency holds against a stouter Eagles defense, that is the bigger test of whether this gap is real.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSSEA @ WSH
SEA: 5.8 yards per play to WSH's 5.1
Seattle's per-play edge over Washington is one of the smaller gaps on the board, and both offenses are hitting explosive plays early. Seattle sits close to last season's 5.98, led by Drew Lock's 82-yard touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while Washington has dipped from 5.53 a year ago to 5.1 despite four 20-plus yard plays last game to Seattle's three, split between Marcus Mariota and Jayden Daniels both finding Terry McLaurin. Two games and a gap under a yard is not much separation, this looks like two offenses that can both strike quickly rather than a real style mismatch, a factor for anyone eyeing the total.
COVERAGENE @ JAX
NE: 17.4% third downs allowed to JAX's 26.3%
NE is at 17.4% third downs allowed over 2 games; JAX is at 26.3% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
RED ZONEPHI @ CHI
PHI: 71.4% red-zone scoring rate to CHI's 57.1%
PHI is at 71.4% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; CHI is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 70.5% over 17 games and CHI at 58.2% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI
The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Cole Strange (G) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Cole Strange as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists Ar'maj Reed-Adams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
TRENCHESLAC @ BUF
BUF: 4.85 yards per rush attempt to LAC's 3.95
LAC is at 3.95 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; BUF is at 4.85 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 4.58 over 17 games and BUF at 4.97 over 17 games.
TRENCHESSEA @ WSH
WSH: 157 rushing yards per game to SEA's 129.5
SEA is at 129.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; WSH is at 157 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 123.3 over 17 games and WSH at 134.7 over 17 games.
TRENCHESARI @ SF
SF: 4.65 yards per rush attempt to ARI's 3.75
ARI is at 3.75 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; SF is at 4.65 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 4.25 over 17 games and SF at 3.81 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Ed Ingram (G) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Ed Ingram as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
PACE & SCRIPTLAR @ DEN
LAR: 16.5 points allowed per game to DEN's 22
LAR is at 16.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 20.4 over 17 games and DEN at 18.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ CLE
CAR: 61 offensive plays per game to CLE's 52
CAR is at 61 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CLE is at 52 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 59.5 over 17 games and CLE at 60.6 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
M.J. Stewart (S) is pup-r for HOU
The Texans designated Stewart (quadriceps) for return from their reserve/PUP list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Tate Ratledge (G) is questionable for DET
DET lists Tate Ratledge as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Ben Bartch (G) is questionable for DET
DET lists Ben Bartch as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Seydou Traore (TE) is questionable for MIA
MIA lists Seydou Traore as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Christian Mahogany (G) is questionable for DET
DET lists Christian Mahogany as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
PACE & SCRIPTTEN @ NYG
TEN @ NYG carries a 39.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 39.5, 4 points below the 43.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
SEA: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to WSH's 1
SEA is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; WSH is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 0.71 over 17 games and WSH at 1.53 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game to MIA's 1.5
KC is at 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 1.88 over 17 games and MIA at 1.35 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
LAC: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to BUF's 0.5
LAC is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 1.24 over 17 games and BUF at 1.88 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLAC @ BUF
LAC: 26 points allowed per game to BUF's 31
LAC is at 26 points allowed per game over 2 games; BUF is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 20 over 17 games and BUF at 21.5 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
NYJ @ DET carries a 47.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 47.5, 4 points above the 43.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.
BATTER VS ARMSD @ LAD
Manny Machado vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .333
Machado is 4-for-12 with one walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 12 career at-bats, a 1.218 OPS. He comes in cold at a .529 OPS over the last 15 days. Twelve at-bats is a small base, and the current form points the other way.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
PACE & SCRIPTARI @ SF
ARI @ SF carries a 47.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 47.5, 4 points above the 43.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 41.5 penalty yards per game to SEA's 62
SEA is at 62 penalty yards per game over 2 games; WSH is at 41.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 46.6 over 17 games and WSH at 53.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
PHI: 37.5 penalty yards per game to CHI's 57.5
PHI is at 37.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; CHI is at 57.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 63.1 over 17 games and CHI at 57.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to DEN's 0.5
LAR is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 1.76 over 17 games and DEN at 1.18 over 17 games.
RED ZONELAR @ DEN
LAR: 40% red-zone scoring allowed to DEN's 57.1%
LAR is at 40% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DEN is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
RED ZONEHOU @ IND
HOU: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to IND's 66.7%
HOU is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; IND is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DAL
BAL: 254 team passing yards per game to DAL's 220.5
BAL is at 254 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DAL is at 220.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 175.6 over 17 games and DAL at 266.3 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKLV @ NO
Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV
Through 2 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 413 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKTEN @ NYG
Jameis Winston is the projected starting quarterback for NYG
In his first 2026 game, Jameis Winston threw for 111 passing yards, completed 40.7% of his passes and averaged 4.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 567 yards, completed 56.1% and averaged 8.59 yards per attempt, 2-2 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.
QUARTERBACKCIN @ PIT
Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN
Through 2 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 461 passing yards, completed 68.2% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKKC @ MIA
Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA
Through 2 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 417 passing yards, completed 58% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLAC @ BUF
Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC
Through 2 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 401 passing yards, completed 59.3% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKATL @ GB
Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB
Through 2 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 532 passing yards, completed 52.1% of his passes and averaged 7.49 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
BALLPARKCHW @ KC
Seth Lugo's ERA drops to 4.07 at Kauffman Stadium
A 4.07 ERA at Kauffman across 15 starts and 86.1 innings is a big improvement on the 6.10 he's run everywhere else over 82.2 innings, with hitters at .269 off him at home. Fifteen starts is a real sample, not a one game blip, so this looks like a legitimate home comfort rather than noise. He starts at Kauffman tonight, right in his good split, giving him a real edge on paper against the White Sox lineup he'll actually face.
P 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Max Klare (TE) is inactive for LAR
Klare (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's season-opener versus San Francisco in Melbourne, Australia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Dayo Odeyingbo (DE) is questionable for CHI
CHI lists Dayo Odeyingbo as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
QUARTERBACKLV @ NO
Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO
Through 2 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 662 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.36 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLAR @ DEN
Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR
Through 2 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 482 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 8.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKATL @ GB
Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL
In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 1982 passing yards, completed 60.1% of his passes and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt. His 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line puts that prior-season passing production in the context of his ball security over the same sample.
QUARTERBACKNYJ @ DET
Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET
Through 2 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 533 passing yards, completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 6.92 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKTEN @ NYG
Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN
Through 2 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 323 passing yards, completed 61.5% of his passes and averaged 6.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKNYJ @ DET
Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ
Through 2 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 462 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 7.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKCIN @ PIT
Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT
Through 2 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 408 passing yards, completed 59.5% of his passes and averaged 5.17 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKSEA @ WSH
Marcus Mariota is the projected starting quarterback for WSH
In his first 2026 game, Marcus Mariota threw for 111 passing yards, completed 68.8% of his passes and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 1695 yards, completed 61.2% and averaged 7.47 yards per attempt, 10-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.
TRENCHESHOU @ IND
IND: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.6
HOU is at 3.6 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; IND is at 4.4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and IND at 4.44 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKKC @ MIA
Patrick Mahomes is the projected starting quarterback for KC
Through 2 games in 2026, Patrick Mahomes threw for 566 passing yards, completed 63.5% of his passes and averaged 7.65 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3587 yards, completed 62.7% and averaged 7.14 yards per attempt, 22-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKHOU @ IND
Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND
Through 2 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 376 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 6.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ CHI
Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI
Through 2 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 467 passing yards, completed 64.5% of his passes and averaged 7.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
LV (2-0) at NO (1-1)
LV is 2-0 and plus-26, already with a road win at 1-0. NO is a game back at 1-1 but still positive at plus-6, having won its last game after an 0-1 start, and hasn't played at home yet this season. The 20-point scoring margin gap favors LV, but NO's own number is solid, a team that started slow and has since turned it around.
QUARTERBACKHOU @ IND
C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU
Through 2 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 627 passing yards, completed 60.2% of his passes and averaged 6.74 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Jack Endries (TE) is inactive for CIN
Endries (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's matchup with the Bucs. Reported Sep 13.
QUARTERBACKLAR @ DEN
Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN
Through 2 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 419 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKNE @ JAX
Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE
Through 2 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 386 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 7.02 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKNE @ JAX
Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX
Through 2 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 434 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 8.35 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
RETURN WATCHTEX · return listed 9/23
Carter Baumler
Carter Baumler is back TODAY. The Rangers' reliever checked in this season with a 3.18 ERA—that's the kind of arm you want in your pen when October baseball matters. Ribs heal fast once you're cleared to play. Add now, not stash—he's live today.
QUARTERBACKARI @ SF
Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI
Through 2 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 372 passing yards, completed 67.7% of his passes and averaged 5.72 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKARI @ SF
Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF
Through 2 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 492 passing yards, completed 80.4% of his passes and averaged 8.79 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Ben Brown (C) is questionable for NE
NE lists Ben Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Khalid Kareem (DE) is questionable for SF
SF lists Khalid Kareem as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Barryn Sorrell (DE) is questionable for GB
GB lists Barryn Sorrell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 22 first downs per game to SEA's 18
SEA is at 18 first downs per game over 2 games; WSH is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 20 over 17 games and WSH at 19 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG: 48% third-down conversion rate to TEN's 40%
TEN is at 40% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; NYG is at 48% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 31.9% over 17 games and NYG at 40.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG: 179.5 team passing yards per game to TEN's 148
TEN is at 148 team passing yards per game over 2 games; NYG is at 179.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 166.1 over 17 games and NYG at 204.4 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKCAR @ CLE
Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE
Through 2 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 443 passing yards, completed 76.9% of his passes and averaged 8.52 yards per attempt. His 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Shemar Stewart (DE) is questionable for CIN
CIN lists Shemar Stewart as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Dawand Jones (OT) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Dawand Jones as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
QUARTERBACKMIN @ TB
Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN
In his first 2026 game, Kyler Murray threw for 18 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Keion White (DE) is questionable for SF
SF lists Keion White as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
STARTER FORMTB @ NYY
Gerrit Cole: 5.71 ERA over his last 3 starts
Gerrit Cole's ERA has climbed to 5.71 over his last three starts, 17.1 innings, well above his 3.63 season mark. His WHIP, though, is exactly 1.10, matching his season number, so he isn't walking hitters or allowing extra baserunners, the runs are landing in bad spots. That split, ERA up while WHIP holds steady, points to a rough patch rather than a real decline in his stuff. For TB @ NYY, the steady WHIP is the more telling number here than the inflated ERA, especially off just three starts.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Josh Simmons (OT) is questionable for KC
KC lists Josh Simmons as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Blake Grupe (PK) is inactive for NYJ
Grupe (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Brett Thorson (P) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Brett Thorson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Justin Skule (OT) is questionable for TB
TB lists Justin Skule as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
QUARTERBACKMIN @ TB
Baker Mayfield is the projected starting quarterback for TB
Through 2 games in 2026, Baker Mayfield threw for 398 passing yards, completed 71% of his passes and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3693 yards, completed 63.2% and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, 26-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
David Njoku (TE) is on injured reserve for LAC
The Chargers placed Njoku (fibula) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Darnell Wright (OT) is questionable for CHI
CHI lists Darnell Wright as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
QUARTERBACKCAR @ CLE
Bryce Young is the projected starting quarterback for CAR
Through 2 games in 2026, Bryce Young threw for 648 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 8.88 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3011 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, 23-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLAC @ BUF
Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF
Through 2 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 582 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 9.7 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Matthew Caldwell (QB) is on injured reserve for LAR
The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Aug 29.
QUARTERBACKBAL @ DAL
Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL
Through 2 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 559 passing yards, completed 67.9% of his passes and averaged 9.98 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKBAL @ DAL
Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL
Through 2 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 454 passing yards, completed 73.8% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REGRESSIONSD @ LAD
Ty France: .299 AVG vs .255 xBA
Across 478 plate appearances, Ty France carries a .299 average versus a .255 xBA. His wOBA sits at .378 against a .333 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ CLE
CLE: 26.5 points allowed per game to CAR's 31
CAR is at 31 points allowed per game over 2 games; CLE is at 26.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 22.4 over 17 games and CLE at 22.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ CHI
CHI: 70 offensive plays per game to PHI's 62.5
PHI is at 62.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CHI is at 70 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 59.4 over 17 games and CHI at 64.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 8 yards per pass attempt to CLE's 6.95
CAR is at 8 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; CLE is at 6.95 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 5.47 over 17 games and CLE at 4.78 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 8 sack yards lost per game to LAC's 15.5
LAC is at 15.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; BUF is at 8 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAC was at 21.6 over 17 games and BUF at 21.3 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTWSH @ DET
Ben Malgeri (.602 vs LHP) replaces Wenceel Perez at RF tonight
With Perez out 12 days with an orbital injury, Malgeri plays right field and bats third against the lefty Lovelady. His .602 against lefties is well under his .748 season line, but it comes from only 65 at-bats. Batting third puts him in RBI spots, but this matchup works against him, so weigh the split alongside his season line.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
REPLACEMENTTOR @ BAL
Nathan Lukes (.752 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
With Barger out 58 days with an elbow injury, Lukes plays right field and leads off against the right-hander Bassitt. His .752 against righties over 321 at-bats is a sample you can trust, and it beats his .711 overall. Leading off gives him the most trips to the plate, so start his props from the split.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
NYJ (1-1) at DET (1-1)
NYJ and DET are both 1-1 coming off a loss, but NYJ is plus-10 on the season while DET is minus-9, a 19-point difference the matching records don't show. NYJ already has a road win at 1-0, and DET has held its home game at 1-0. Two games each is a small sample, but the margin gap says NYJ has played better so far despite the identical record.
REPLACEMENTSD @ LAD
Dustin Harris (.756 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Dustin Harris bats second against right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto with a .756 OPS against right-handers in 99 at-bats against a .740 season line. He has been on the injury report 11 days with a hip issue. Ninety-nine at-bats is a modest base and the platoon gain is small.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COVERAGEPHI @ CHI
CHI: 31.8% third downs allowed to PHI's 39.3%
PHI is at 39.3% third downs allowed over 2 games; CHI is at 31.8% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
MIA: 55.5 penalty yards per game to KC's 73
KC is at 73 penalty yards per game over 2 games; MIA is at 55.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 59.4 over 17 games and MIA at 47.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 246.5 team passing yards per game to NYJ's 216.5
NYJ is at 216.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DET is at 246.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 140.3 over 17 games and DET at 253.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU: 24 first downs per game to IND's 20.5
HOU is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; IND is at 20.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and IND at 20.7 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Neville Gallimore (DT) is questionable for CHI
CHI lists Neville Gallimore as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR
Garrett (knee) was placed on injured reserve Thursday and will miss at least four games, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints placed Banks (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Audric Estime (RB) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Malik Davis (RB) is on injured reserve for DAL
The Cowboys placed Davis (hip) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Keondre Jackson (S) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Keondre Jackson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL
Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
T.J. Tampa (CB) is on injured reserve for BAL
The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Ricky Pearsall (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
Knee - PCL
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Will Johnson (CB) is on injured reserve for ARI
The Cardinals placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Cody Simon (LB) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Cody Simon as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE
Brown, who was officially placed on injured reserve Saturday, is expected to miss about six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Daron Payne (DT) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Daron Payne as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
K'Lavon Chaisson (LB) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists K'Lavon Chaisson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Paulson Adebo (CB) is on injured reserve for NYG
The Giants placed Adebo (knee) on injured reserve Friday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Thomas Fidone II (TE) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Thomas Fidone II as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jaylon Jones (CB) is inactive for TEN
Coach's Decision
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Justin Joly (TE) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Justin Joly as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chamarri Conner (S) is questionable for KC
KC lists Chamarri Conner as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Micheal Clemons (DE) is on injured reserve for IND
Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Brevin Jordan (TE) is inactive for HOU
HOU lists Brevin Jordan as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Avonte Maddox (CB) is on injured reserve for DET
The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Christian Izien (S) is questionable for DET
DET lists Christian Izien as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Isiah Pacheco (RB) is on injured reserve for DET
Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Kendrick Law (WR) is on injured reserve for DET
Knee - ACL
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Tim Patrick (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
The Jets placed Patrick (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Maliek Collins (DT) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Maliek Collins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Dylan Sampson (RB) is on injured reserve for CLE
Sampson (knee) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Dillon Gabriel (QB) is ir-r for CLE
CLE lists Dillon Gabriel as ir-r on the injury report. Reported Sep 8.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Teair Tart (DT) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Teair Tart as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for LAC
The Chargers placed Lambert-Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Ty'Ron Hopper (LB) is questionable for GB
GB lists Ty'Ron Hopper as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB) is on injured reserve for ATL
The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
TURNOVERSLAR @ DEN
DEN: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to LAR's 2
LAR is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 0.88 over 17 games and DEN at 1 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSBAL @ DAL
DAL: 0 fumbles lost per game to BAL's 0.5
BAL is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 0.71 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSBAL @ DAL
DAL: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to BAL's 1
BAL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 1.35 over 17 games and DAL at 1.24 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSTEN @ NYG
TEN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NYG's 1
TEN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 1.12 over 17 games and NYG at 1 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
HOU: 1 turnovers committed per game to IND's 1.5
HOU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and IND at 1.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 0 fumbles lost per game to DET's 0.5
NYJ is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 0.59 over 17 games and DET at 0.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 0 turnovers committed per game to DET's 0.5
NYJ is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCAR @ CLE
CLE: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to CAR's 1
CAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CLE is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 0.65 over 17 games and CLE at 0.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCAR @ CLE
CLE: 1 turnovers committed per game to CAR's 1.5
CAR is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CLE is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 1.35 over 17 games and CLE at 1.47 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSARI @ SF
ARI: 1.5 takeaways per game to SF's 1
ARI has forced 1.5 takeaways a game through two games, a bit ahead of the 1 per game SF has managed. Takeaways are one of the most volatile numbers in football, and a half takeaway per game gap over two games can vanish overnight. Neither defense has done enough yet to call itself a real turnover unit. This is a number to note, not one to build much confidence around this early.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 1.5 takeaways per game to NE's 1
NE is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TURNOVERSTEN @ NYG
NYG: 1.5 takeaways per game to TEN's 1
TEN is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TURNOVERSKC @ MIA
KC: 1.5 takeaways per game to MIA's 1
KC is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
IND: 0.5 takeaways per game to HOU's 0
HOU is at 0 takeaways per game over 2 games; IND is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TURNOVERSNYJ @ DET
DET: 1.5 takeaways per game to NYJ's 1
NYJ is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; DET is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 1 takeaways per game to LAC's 0.5
BUF is forcing 1 takeaway a game through two games, double the 0.5 per game LAC has managed. Takeaway rates swing more than almost any other defensive number, and two games barely says anything about either team's ball-hawking ability. Buffalo's edge here could flip in either direction from week to week. It's a number to know, not one to lean on heavily this early.
TURNOVERSLV @ NO
LV: 0 fumbles lost per game to NO's 0.5
LV is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; NO is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 0.24 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 0 fumbles lost per game to NE's 0.5
NE is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; JAX is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 0.47 over 17 games and JAX at 0.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSKC @ MIA
KC: 0 fumbles lost per game to MIA's 0.5
KC is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; MIA is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 0.18 over 17 games and MIA at 0.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSKC @ MIA
KC: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to MIA's 1
KC is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season KC was at 0.88 over 17 games and MIA at 1.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
IND: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to HOU's 1
HOU is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; IND is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 0.18 over 17 games and IND at 0.53 over 17 games.
TRENCHESMIN @ TB
TB: 75 rushing yards allowed per game to MIN's 100
MIN is at 100 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; TB is at 75 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
STARTER FORMMIN @ SF
Connor Prielipp: 3.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
Six earned runs over his last three starts, 17.2 innings, is what built Connor Prielipp's 3.06 ERA, with his WHIP down to 0.91 compared with a 1.30 season mark. Both numbers moving the same direction, fewer runs and fewer baserunners, reads more like real improvement than a lucky stretch. It's only three starts against a 4.94 season ERA, so the sample stays small even with the signs pointing the same way. For MIN @ SF, he's sharper right now than his season line suggests, though three starts hasn't erased the full season track record.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
TRENCHESCIN @ PIT
CIN: 95.5 rushing yards per game to PIT's 74.5
CIN is at 95.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; PIT is at 74.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 93.6 over 17 games and PIT at 103.3 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 19 first downs per game to DEN's 15.5
LAR is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; DEN is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 23.3 over 17 games and DEN at 19.6 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 19 first downs per game to PIT's 15.5
CIN is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; PIT is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CIN was at 20.7 over 17 games and PIT at 17.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
TB: 46.2% third-down conversion rate to MIN's 39.3%
MIN is at 39.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; TB is at 46.2% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 31.8% over 17 games and TB at 41.2% over 17 games.
RED ZONENYJ @ DET
DET: 77.8% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 66.7%
NYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DET is at 77.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and DET at 62.5% over 17 games.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
PHI: 1 turnovers committed per game to CHI's 1.5
PHI is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 0.88 over 17 games and CHI at 0.65 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSLAR @ DEN
DEN: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to LAR's 1
LAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 0.41 over 17 games and DEN at 0.35 over 17 games.
RED ZONEARI @ SF
SF: 4 red-zone trips per game to ARI's 3
ARI is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; SF is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 3.59 over 17 games and SF at 3.88 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHARI @ SF
SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to ARI's 7
ARI is at 7 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; SF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season ARI was at 24.9 over 17 games and SF at 10.7 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ DAL
BAL: 60 offensive plays per game to DAL's 53
BAL is at 60 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DAL is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season BAL was at 57.3 over 17 games and DAL at 65.9 over 17 games.
TRENCHESATL @ GB
ATL: 63 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 87
ATL is at 63 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; GB is at 87 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TRENCHESKC @ MIA
KC: 90 rushing yards allowed per game to MIA's 112.5
KC is at 90 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 112.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSNE @ JAX
JAX: 5.65 yards per play to NE's 5.15
Jacksonville has the per-play edge over New England early, even though the numbers say more about consistency than firepower. New England actually had six plays of 20-plus yards last game, Drake Maye's 63-yarder to Romeo Doubs and TreVeyon Henderson's 39-yard touchdown run among them, yet the Patriots' overall rate has dropped from 6.23 last season to 5.15, meaning a lot of empty snaps around those flashes. Jacksonville's climb from 5.27 to 5.65 came with Trevor Lawrence spreading completions to three different receivers, Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brian Thomas Jr. Two games in, New England looks boom or bust, capable of one big strike but also stalling between them, which matters for anyone pricing drive efficiency over explosive-play upside.
HEAD-TO-HEADSTL @ PIT
Cardinals are 6-5 vs Pirates this season
The Cardinals are 6-5 against Pittsburgh and lost the last meeting 2-0. Eleven games is a real sample for a one-game edge. Pittsburgh took the most recent meeting, which is the part that sticks with bettors.
TRENCHESSEA @ WSH
WSH: 4.9 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 4.25
SEA is at 4.25 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; WSH is at 4.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season SEA was at 4.17 over 17 games and WSH at 4.81 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSNYJ @ DET
DET: 5.4 yards per play to NYJ's 4.9
Detroit still has the per-play edge over the Jets, but the gap has shrunk from last season, Detroit down from 5.97 to 5.4, New York up from 4.36 to 4.9. Detroit's explosive plays lean heavily on one man, three of its five 20-plus yard gains last game involved Amon-Ra St. Brown, including a 27-yard touchdown. That is two games of data with both numbers moving toward the middle, early movement rather than a settled gap. If St. Brown keeps drawing the target on chunk plays, Detroit's efficiency likely holds even as the raw gap narrows.
TURNOVERSLV @ NO
NO: 1 interceptions thrown per game to LV's 1.5
LV is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NO is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 1.12 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSTEN @ NYG
TEN: 0 interceptions thrown per game to NYG's 0.5
TEN is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NYG is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 0.47 over 17 games and NYG at 0.59 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
CHI: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to PHI's 1
PHI is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; CHI is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season PHI was at 0.41 over 17 games and CHI at 0.41 over 17 games.
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ BAL
Blue Jays are 6-5 vs Orioles this season
At 6-5, Toronto's edge in this series is basically a coin flip, and the last meeting went to Baltimore, 4-3. Nothing here points to a clear driver, no hot arm or park effect, just two clubs trading close games all year. A series this even doesn't say much about who wins tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ BAL
Blue Jays are 6-5 vs Orioles this season
Toronto sits at 6-5 in this series, about as even as a season series gets, and Baltimore took the last meeting 4-3. There's nothing on the sheet pointing to a clear cause, just two teams that have traded close games all season. A matchup this balanced doesn't carry much signal for tonight.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 6.9 yards per pass attempt to DET's 6
NYJ is at 6.9 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DET is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 4.28 over 17 games and DET at 7.09 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Decamerion Richardson (CB) is inactive for NO
NO lists Decamerion Richardson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
TB: 18 first downs per game to MIN's 15
MIN is at 15 first downs per game over 2 games; TB is at 18 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 17.2 over 17 games and TB at 19.5 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
David Sills V (WR) is ir-r for TB
Sills (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Sunday with a designation to return, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR (1-1) at DEN (1-1)
LAR and DEN both arrive at 1-1 off a win last time out, but LAR is barely positive at plus-2 while DEN is minus-14, a 16-point gap between two teams with the same record. DEN has protected its house at 1-0, while LAR hasn't played on the road yet this season. Two games each keeps this early, but the margin split says LAR has been the better team on paper so far.
RETURN WATCHLAD · return listed 9/23
Gavin Stone
Gavin Stone returns today, but the Dodgers held him out all season with shoulder work. No ERA to show for it means real ramp-up time ahead. As a starter, you need innings and command back before you trust him in October. Wait one start—see the rehab outing first.
RETURN WATCHBAL · return listed 9/25
Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle's been parked on the 60-day with that oblique all year, and the roster says he's two days from eligible. A .690 OPS is what you were getting before he got hurt, so this isn't a stash for impact, it's a stash for a warm body at first base if your league's that shallow. Cut in shallow/medium leagues. Deep AL-only or CI-needy teams can hold two more days to see if the return date holds, but don't expect the bat to matter.
TRENCHESHOU @ IND
IND: 110.5 rushing yards per game to HOU's 92
HOU is at 92 rushing yards per game over 2 games; IND is at 110.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season HOU was at 108.9 over 17 games and IND at 118.1 over 17 games.
REGRESSIONARI @ COL
TJ Rumfield: .298 AVG vs .262 xBA
Rumfield is one of the better hitters on this list by contact alone: a .334 xwOBA is a solid mark, even though his actual .371 wOBA is higher. Over 617 plate appearances, the .298 average against a .262 xBA suggests some of his hits came on softer contact. Hitting in Colorado helps that kind of profile, since the big outfield turns more balls in play into hits. For ARI @ COL, the park works in his favor tonight, so expect his results to stay above what his contact says more than they would elsewhere.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCLE @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .282 AVG vs .247 xBA
Rafaela is hitting .282, but the contact behind it looks more like a .247 hitter, and his .330 wOBA sits above a .282 expected. That gap has held up over 569 plate appearances, a full season's worth, so it can't be written off as a hot week. Expected numbers still suggest some of those hits were lucky placement, and his results could slip closer to the contact. In CLE @ BOS, lean on the .247 xBA over the batting average when you size up his hit props.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Mason Murphy (OT) is inactive for NO
NO lists Mason Murphy as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Jordyn Tyson (WR) is ir-r for NO
Tyson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by New Orleans on Sunday. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Mason Tipton (WR) is pup-r for NO
Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Ajani Cornelius (OT) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Ajani Cornelius as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Caelen Carson (CB) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Caelen Carson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Israel Abanikanda (RB) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Israel Abanikanda as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Adam Randall (RB) is ir-r for BAL
Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Ayden Garnes (CB) is inactive for TB
TB lists Ayden Garnes as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
FIRST INNINGWSH @ DET
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of WSH @ DET
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 7 of 10 sampled DET games and 8 of 10 sampled WSH games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Framber Valdez: 6.98 ERA, .325 opponent AVG across 29.2 IP, 4 HR; Richard Lovelady: 1.80 ERA, .263 opponent AVG across 5.0 IP, 1 HR.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Malcolm DeWalt IV (CB) is inactive for ATL
ATL lists Malcolm DeWalt IV as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Ethan Onianwa (OT) is inactive for ATL
ATL lists Ethan Onianwa as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Travis Glover (OT) is inactive for GB
GB lists Travis Glover as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Isas Waxter (CB) is inactive for LAC
LAC lists Isas Waxter as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Jude Bowry (OT) is inactive for BUF
BUF lists Jude Bowry as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Albert Reese IV (OT) is inactive for CAR
CAR lists Albert Reese IV as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Chau Smith-Wade (CB) is inactive for CAR
CAR lists Chau Smith-Wade as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Parker Brailsford (C) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Parker Brailsford as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Toriano Pride Jr. (CB) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Toriano Pride Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ
Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB) is inactive for DET
DET lists Ennis Rakestraw Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Zemaiah Vaughn (CB) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Zemaiah Vaughn as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Caleb Tiernan (OT) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Caleb Tiernan as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jeshaun Jones (WR) is reserve-sus for MIN
The NFL suspended Jones three games Tuesday for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Aug 26.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
C.J. West (DT) is on injured reserve for SF
The 49ers placed West (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kyle Juszczyk (FB) is questionable for SF
SF lists Kyle Juszczyk as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Ephesians Prysock (CB) is inactive for SF
SF lists Ephesians Prysock as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Juice Scruggs (G) is questionable for DET
DET lists Juice Scruggs as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Elijah Williams (DE) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Elijah Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Enrique Cruz Jr. (OT) is inactive for SF
SF lists Enrique Cruz Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Christian Kirk (WR) is ir-r for SF
Kirk (calf) was placed on injured reserve by the 49ers on Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Isaac Guerendo (RB) is pup-r for SF
Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Josh Fryar (OT) is inactive for ARI
ARI lists Josh Fryar as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
James Conner (RB) is ir-r for ARI
The Cardinals are placing Conner (foot) on injured reserve with a designation to return, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Wesley Williams (DE) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Wesley Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Dell Pettus (S) is on injured reserve for NE
The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Walter Rouse (OL) is inactive for NE
NE lists Walter Rouse as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Efton Chism III (WR) is inactive for NE
Chism (coach's decision) is inactive for Wednesday's game against the Seahawks. Reported Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Isaac Yiadom (CB) is inactive for WSH
WSH lists Isaac Yiadom as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jeremy McNichols (RB) is ir-r for WSH
The Commanders placed McNichols (quadriceps) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Josh Jones (G) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Josh Jones as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Mike Morris (DE) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Mike Morris as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Irv Charles (WR) is ir-r for SEA
Charles (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Seahawks on Sunday with a designation to return, John Boyle of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Gabriel Rubio (DE) is inactive for PIT
PIT lists Gabriel Rubio as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Josh Newton (CB) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Josh Newton as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Connor Lew (C) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Connor Lew as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Myles Hinton (OT) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Myles Hinton as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
J.C. Davis (OT) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists J.C. Davis as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Dalen Cambre (WR) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Dalen Cambre as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
PASS RUSHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 11.5 sack yards lost per game to CLE's 17.5
CAR is at 11.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; CLE is at 17.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season CAR was at 16 over 17 games and CLE at 20.3 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson (OT) is inactive for TEN
TEN lists Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Beaux Collins (WR) is ir-r for ATL
The Falcons placed Collins (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return during the season, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Marcellas Dial Jr. (CB) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Marcellas Dial Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA
The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chukwuebuka Godrick (OT) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Chukwuebuka Godrick as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Nate Thomas (OT) is inactive for HOU
HOU lists Nate Thomas as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Collin Wright (CB) is inactive for HOU
HOU lists Collin Wright as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU
Dell (knee) agreed to take a pay cut from the Texans on Friday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Sep 4.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Keith Abney II (CB) is inactive for DET
DET lists Keith Abney II as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jamree Kromah (DE) is inactive for CHI
CHI lists Jamree Kromah as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 203.5 team passing yards per game to NE's 179.5
NE is at 179.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; JAX is at 203.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NE was at 250.5 over 17 games and JAX at 222.3 over 17 games.
BALLPARKMIL @ PHI
Aaron Nola owns a 5.30 ERA at Citizens Bank Park and 3.84 everywhere else
Nola's ERA at home is 5.30 across 14 starts and 74.2 innings, well behind the 3.84 he carries on the road over 93.2 innings, with hitters batting .288 off him at Citizens Bank Park. Fourteen home starts is a real sample, not a one off, so this looks like an actual split rather than noise. He's pitching at home tonight against Milwaukee, the same park that has given him trouble all year, which matters more here than his stronger road numbers.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
STARTER FORMLAA @ OAK
Jeffrey Springs: 4.70 ERA over his last 3 starts
Three starts is a small sample. In that span he has allowed 8 earned runs over 15.1 innings with a 1.24 WHIP, well ahead of his 6.18 season ERA and 1.47 WHIP. The season line is what the price leans on, so the recent stretch is the part to weigh tonight against the Angels.
P 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
COVERAGECAR @ CLE
CLE: 46.2% third downs allowed to CAR's 51.9%
CAR is at 51.9% third downs allowed over 2 games; CLE is at 46.2% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
RED ZONELV @ NO
LV: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 71.4%
LV is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; NO is at 71.4% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
COVERAGEARI @ SF
SF: 175 passing yards allowed per game to ARI's 203
SF has allowed 175 passing yards a game through two games, tighter than the 203 ARI's defense has given up. That's a modest early edge for San Francisco's secondary. Two games is still a short sample, so the gap could close or widen depending on who each defense faces next. Arizona's pass defense has been the more attackable of the two so far, which matters for how this game's passing production could play out.
COVERAGEBAL @ DAL
BAL: 191 passing yards allowed per game to DAL's 218
BAL is at 191 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 218 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PACE & SCRIPTLAR @ DEN
LAR: 58.5 offensive plays per game to DEN's 53
LAR is at 58.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DEN is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LAR was at 63.9 over 17 games and DEN at 64.2 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 14.5 sack yards lost per game to DET's 20
NYJ is at 14.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 20 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 24.9 over 17 games and DET at 20.3 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHTEN @ NYG
NYG: 2 sacks taken per game to TEN's 2.5
TEN is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; NYG is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season TEN was at 3.5 over 17 games and NYG at 2.82 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Jalon Kilgore (S) is inactive for BUF
BUF lists Jalon Kilgore as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Justin Jefferson (LB) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Justin Jefferson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Daniel Thomas (S) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Daniel Thomas as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Trevin Wallace (LB) is inactive for NYJ
NYJ lists Trevin Wallace as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Jimmy Rolder (LB) is inactive for DET
DET lists Jimmy Rolder as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Mekhi Wingo (DT) is inactive for DET
DET lists Mekhi Wingo as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Austin Ajiake (LB) is inactive for IND
IND lists Austin Ajiake as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
George Gumbs Jr. (LB) is inactive for IND
IND lists George Gumbs Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jackie Marshall (DT) is inactive for TEN
TEN lists Jackie Marshall as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Bobby Jamison-Travis (DT) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Bobby Jamison-Travis as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jason Pinnock (S) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Jason Pinnock as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Darius Alexander (DT) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Darius Alexander as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Landon Robinson (DT) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Landon Robinson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Kevin Jobity Jr. (DT) is inactive for PIT
PIT lists Kevin Jobity Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Anthony Bradford (G) is on injured reserve for SEA
The Seahawks placed Bradford (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Connor O'Toole (LB) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Connor O'Toole as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Ricky Barber (DT) is inactive for WSH
WSH lists Ricky Barber as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Leonard Taylor III (DT) is inactive for NE
NE lists Leonard Taylor III as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Mike Onwenu (G) is on injured reserve for NE
The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jalen Huskey (S) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Jalen Huskey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jack Kiser (LB) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Jack Kiser as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Tatum Bethune (LB) is inactive for SF
SF lists Tatum Bethune as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jake Tonges (TE) is on injured reserve for SF
Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jakobe Thomas (S) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Jakobe Thomas as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
DeMonte Capehart (DT) is inactive for TB
TB lists DeMonte Capehart as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Elijah Simmons (DT) is inactive for TB
TB lists Elijah Simmons as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
James Houston (LB) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists James Houston as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Dalton Johnson (S) is inactive for LV
LV lists Dalton Johnson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
JJ Pegues (DT) is inactive for LV
LV lists JJ Pegues as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Tristin McCollum (S) is inactive for LV
LV lists Tristin McCollum as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
John Ridgeway III (DT) is inactive for NO
NO lists John Ridgeway III as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Zach Wood (LS) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Eli Stowers (TE) is on injured reserve for PHI
The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jayden Loving (DT) is inactive for CHI
CHI lists Jayden Loving as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
PASS RUSHMIN @ TB
MIN: 3 sacks taken per game to TB's 3.5
MIN is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; TB is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season MIN was at 4 over 17 games and TB at 2.38 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to CLE's 2
CAR is at 2.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; CLE is at 2 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PASS RUSHNYJ @ DET
DET: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to NYJ's 3
NYJ is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DET is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PASS RUSHCIN @ PIT
CIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to PIT's 3.5
CIN is at 4 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; PIT is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PASS RUSHNE @ JAX
NE: 3 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.5
NE is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; JAX is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
PASS RUSHNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 2 sacks taken per game to DET's 2.5
NYJ is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DET is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and DET at 3 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 37.5% third-down conversion rate to NYJ's 32.3%
NYJ is at 32.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DET is at 37.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season NYJ was at 34.9% over 17 games and DET at 38.8% over 17 games.
BALLPARKSD @ LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 3.13 ERA at Dodger Stadium and 1.77 everywhere else
Yamamoto's ERA at Dodger Stadium is 3.13 across 15 starts and 97.2 innings, worse than the 1.77 he owns on the road over 81.1 innings, even though hitters are batting just .188 off him at home. Fifteen starts is a full season's sample, so the gap looks like a real split, and that .188 average shows the underlying stuff still plays well even where the ERA lags. He starts at Dodger Stadium tonight against San Diego, the tougher of his two ERA marks but backed by the better contact number.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSLV @ NO
NO: 5.1 yards per play to LV's 4.7
New Orleans has only a small per-play edge over Las Vegas early on. Both offenses are basically tracking last season, Las Vegas up slightly from 4.35 to 4.7, New Orleans holding around 5.05 to 5.1, so this reads as normal variance rather than a real gap. With just two games and less than half a yard separating them, this is not a matchup where one offense is dictating pace. Expect a tighter, more even battle for yards than a bigger per-play gap would suggest.
COVERAGEARI @ SF
SF: 5.1 yards per play allowed to ARI's 5.5
ARI is at 5.5 yards per play allowed over 2 games; SF is at 5.1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
COVERAGELAC @ BUF
LAC: 35.7% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.7%
LAC is at 35.7% third downs allowed over 2 games; BUF is at 40.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 22.
TRENCHESLV @ NO
LV: 93.5 rushing yards per game to NO's 78
LV is at 93.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; NO is at 78 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 22. Last season LV was at 77.5 over 17 games and NO at 94.3 over 17 games.
BATTER VS ARMMIL @ PHI
Brice Turang vs Aaron Nola: .333
Turang has 4 hits in 12 career at-bats against Nola, which is a good track record. Twelve at-bats is a small sample, and one or two hits either way would change that average a lot. His recent form is stronger evidence: he has a 1.162 OPS over the last 15 days. With the hot streak and the history both pointing up, his hit props in Philadelphia deserve a look, as long as you give the recent form more weight than the head-to-head.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
BATTER VS ARMSTL @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds vs Matthew Liberatore: .333
Reynolds is 4-for-12 with a home run against Liberatore, so he has hit him well in the few times they have met. Twelve at-bats is too small a sample to count on, and he comes in cold with a .639 OPS over the last 15 days. When a good head-to-head record meets a slump, the recent slump usually tells you more. Keep that in mind before paying up for Reynolds props in Pittsburgh.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
BATTER VS ARMLAA @ OAK
Mike Trout vs Jeffrey Springs: .385
Thirteen career at-bats, 5-for-13 with 3 walks and a .962 OPS off Springs. He enters hot too, at .894 OPS over his last 15 games. The at-bat count is small, and his current form agrees with the history rather than fighting it.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ NYY
Jonny DeLuca: .257 AVG vs .230 xBA
Jonny DeLuca's .257 average comes against a .230 expected (xBA) on 348 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .303 against a .257 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Tip Reiman (TE) is pup-r for ARI
The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Billy Schrauth (G) is inactive for TB
TB lists Billy Schrauth as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Luke Haggard (G) is inactive for TB
TB lists Luke Haggard as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Skylar Thompson (QB) is on injured reserve for BAL
BAL lists Skylar Thompson as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Aug 19.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Andrew Vorhees (G) is inactive for BAL
BAL lists Andrew Vorhees as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Carter Runyon (TE) is ir-r for LV
Runyon (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Raiders on Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Bryce Cabeldue (G) is inactive for LV
LV lists Bryce Cabeldue as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Bill Murray (G) is inactive for LAR
LAR lists Bill Murray as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Caleb Lohner (TE) is ir-r for DEN
Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Tanoa Togiai (G) is inactive for WSH
WSH lists Tanoa Togiai as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Dallen Bentley (TE) is inactive for DEN
DEN lists Dallen Bentley as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Grant Calcaterra (TE) is ir-r for PHI
Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Micah Morris (G) is inactive for PHI
PHI lists Micah Morris as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jordan McFadden (G) is inactive for CHI
CHI lists Jordan McFadden as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Cameron Williams (OL) is on injured reserve for ATL
The Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 12.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG is on a short week
Both sides are working on short weeks here, but the Giants have it tighter, just two days of rest against Tennessee's three. A one day gap is small, but it does mean less practice time for New York to get healthy and install a game plan. Short rest for both teams tends to level things out some, since neither gets a normal week to prepare. Watch how the Giants manage the extra day of disadvantage, especially up front.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Daniel Faalele (G) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Daniel Faalele as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
B.J. Green II (DE) is on injured reserve for JAX
The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 17.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR is on a short week
The Rams have the tighter turnaround here, two days of rest compared to Denver's three. Both teams are on short weeks, so neither gets a normal amount of practice time, but the one day gap still matters for how much LA can prepare. Short weeks like this usually affect execution and health more than scheme. Keep an eye on how the Rams look early, especially up front where fatigue shows first.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Dalton Tucker (G) is inactive for IND
IND lists Dalton Tucker as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REGRESSIONSD @ LAD
Will Smith: .248 AVG vs .273 xBA
Across 264 plate appearances, Will Smith carries a .248 average versus a .273 xBA. His wOBA sits at .336 against a .385 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 3 BB
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Gennings Dunker (G) is inactive for PIT
PIT lists Gennings Dunker as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Atonio Mafi (G) is inactive for TEN
TEN lists Atonio Mafi as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
DJ Campbell (G) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists DJ Campbell as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jared Wiley (TE) is inactive for KC
KC lists Jared Wiley as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Luke Musgrave (TE) is pup-r for GB
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that he's "really hopeful" Musgrave (neck) will be able to play at some point during the 2026 season, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports. Reported Sep 1.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
John Williams (G) is inactive for GB
GB lists John Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Alex Harkey (G) is inactive for LAC
LAC lists Alex Harkey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.

Graded results

Games

W
Twins ML -154
MLB · 4-2
W
Baltimore Orioles ML -126
MLB · 2-4
W
Brewers ML -126
MLB · 4-1
L
Pittsburgh Pirates ML -134
MLB · 5-1
L
Cleveland Guardians ML +114
MLB · 0-1
L
Braves -1.5 -114
MLB · 2-3
W
Baltimore Orioles ML -120
MLB · 2-4
W
Nationals ML +134
MLB · 4-2
L
White Sox ML -116
MLB · 4-5
W
Yankees ML -144
MLB · 2-9
L
Chicago Cubs ML -180
MLB · 3-2
W
Seattle Mariners ML -130
MLB · 5-6
W
Mets ML -108
MLB · 7-2
W
Diamondbacks ML -158
MLB · 5-3
L
Angels ML -134
MLB · 3-7
L
Dodgers -1.5 -102
MLB · 5-1

Props

L
Andrew Abbott · over
Reds @ Braves · Actual 1
W
Andy Pages · over
Padres @ Dodgers · Actual 4
P
Austin Martin · under
Twins @ Giants
W
Brandon Marsh · under
Brewers @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Coby Mayo · under
Blue Jays @ Orioles · Actual 2
W
Cody Bradford · over
Mets @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
Corbin Carroll · under
Diamondbacks @ Rockies · Actual 3
L
Dustin Harris · over
Padres @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Foster Griffin · under
Guardians @ Red Sox · Actual 18
L
Framber Valdez · under
Nationals @ Tigers · Actual 6
W
George Kirby · over
Astros @ Mariners · Actual 6
W
Gerrit Cole · over
Rays @ Yankees · Actual 17
L
Jakob Marsee · over
Marlins @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Jazz Chisholm Jr. · over
Rays @ Yankees · Actual 1
W
Josh Smith · under
Blue Jays @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Juan Brito · over
Reds @ Braves · Actual 4
W
Ketel Marte · under
Diamondbacks @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Kyle Teel · under
White Sox @ Royals · Actual 1
W
Lawrence Butler · under
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0
W
Lazaro Montes · over
Astros @ Mariners · Actual 1
L
Logan Henderson · under
Brewers @ Phillies · Actual 15
L
Matthew Liberatore · over
Cardinals @ Pirates · Actual 1
W
Max Scherzer · over
Blue Jays @ Orioles · Actual 4
W
Max Scherzer · over
Blue Jays @ Orioles · Actual 15
L
Nathan Church · over
Cardinals @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Nolan McLean · under
Mets @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
Ryan Gusto · under
Marlins @ Cubs · Actual 16
W
Seth Lugo · over
White Sox @ Royals · Actual 7
W
Sonny Gray · over
Guardians @ Red Sox · Actual 18
L
Walbert Urena · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 2