Astros at Mariners

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  GEORGE KIRBYPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

  MLBSeattle Mariners· -130

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 6

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm taking George Kirby over 4.5 hits allowed at -130. Kirby has allowed five or more hits in seven of his last eight starts. Over 29 starts this season he averages 6.6 hits allowed. Left-handed hitters are batting .284 against him and right-handed hitters .288, so he gives up contact to both sides. The Astros in tonight's lineup also know him well. The eight with career at-bats against him are a combined 34-for-126 (.270), led by Isaac Paredes at 8-for-19 and Jose Altuve at 6-for-27. The top four in Houston's order are hot. Over the past week Altuve is 10-for-25, Yordan Alvarez 9-for-22, Paredes 7-for-20 and Yainer Diaz 8-for-22. His outs line is 17.5 with the over at -178, so the market expects about six innings. That should give the top of the order three trips each. The case against is his home park. Kirby has a 3.27 ERA in 15 home starts. Three of his last eight starts were at home, and he allowed 7, 6 and 4 hits in them, so one of the three stayed under this line. The bottom of Houston's order is weak tonight. Lucas Spence is hitting .162 in 37 at-bats, Cam Smith is 1-for-18 over the past week, and Nick Allen starts at shortstop with Jeremy Peña out. An early exit is also possible: he recorded fewer than 15 outs in three of his last eight starts. I still want five hits against a pitcher who has allowed at least that many in almost every recent start, and at -130 I'll pay it.

  ×

  George Kirby
  Pitcher Hits Allowed over 4.5

  -130 · CASHED · ACTUAL 6

  Seattle Mariners

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm taking George Kirby over 4.5 hits allowed at -130. Kirby has allowed five or more hits in seven of his last eight starts. Over 29 starts this season he averages 6.6 hits allowed. Left-handed hitters are batting .284 against him and right-handed hitters .288, so he gives up contact to both sides. The Astros in tonight's lineup also know him well. The eight with career at-bats against him are a combined 34-for-126 (.270), led by Isaac Paredes at 8-for-19 and Jose Altuve at 6-for-27. The top four in Houston's order are hot. Over the past week Altuve is 10-for-25, Yordan Alvarez 9-for-22, Paredes 7-for-20 and Yainer Diaz 8-for-22. His outs line is 17.5 with the over at -178, so the market expects about six innings. That should give the top of the order three trips each.

  The case against is his home park. Kirby has a 3.27 ERA in 15 home starts. Three of his last eight starts were at home, and he allowed 7, 6 and 4 hits in them, so one of the three stayed under this line. The bottom of Houston's order is weak tonight. Lucas Spence is hitting .162 in 37 at-bats, Cam Smith is 1-for-18 over the past week, and Nick Allen starts at shortstop with Jeremy Peña out. An early exit is also possible: he recorded fewer than 15 outs in three of his last eight starts. I still want five hits against a pitcher who has allowed at least that many in almost every recent start, and at -130 I'll pay it.

• GARY'S PICK

  LAZARO MONTESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBSeattle Mariners· -139

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm taking Lazaro Montes over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -139. Montes is a left-handed rookie with 42 major league at-bats, and he bats eighth tonight. His results so far split by the pitcher's hand. Against right-handers he is 8-for-30 with a 1.053 OPS, and all four of his home runs came against them. Against lefties he is 0-for-12. Tonight he starts against right-hander Ethan Pecko, whose split runs the same way. Left-handed hitters have a .791 OPS and all five of his home runs allowed in 63 at-bats, while right-handed hitters have a .487 OPS. This prop pays on a hit, a run or an RBI. One swing like the ones he has already hit against right-handers covers it. So does a single followed by a hit from the top of Seattle's order. The evidence against him is heavy, and I'm pricing it in. He has cleared this line in only 6 of his last 15 games. He has 21 strikeouts in 42 at-bats, and he is 1-for-14 over the last week with six strikeouts in his last three games. Hitting eighth, he averages 2.7 plate appearances a game. Pecko is unlikely to pitch deep, so Houston's rested lefties, Josh Hader and Bryan King, could face him late. Seattle also has right-handed bench bats in Victor Robles and Taylor Ward if a lefty comes in. My conviction here is smaller, but he opens the game in the one matchup where he has produced.

  ×

  Lazaro Montes
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -139 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Seattle Mariners

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm taking Lazaro Montes over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -139. Montes is a left-handed rookie with 42 major league at-bats, and he bats eighth tonight. His results so far split by the pitcher's hand. Against right-handers he is 8-for-30 with a 1.053 OPS, and all four of his home runs came against them. Against lefties he is 0-for-12. Tonight he starts against right-hander Ethan Pecko, whose split runs the same way. Left-handed hitters have a .791 OPS and all five of his home runs allowed in 63 at-bats, while right-handed hitters have a .487 OPS. This prop pays on a hit, a run or an RBI. One swing like the ones he has already hit against right-handers covers it. So does a single followed by a hit from the top of Seattle's order.

  The evidence against him is heavy, and I'm pricing it in. He has cleared this line in only 6 of his last 15 games. He has 21 strikeouts in 42 at-bats, and he is 1-for-14 over the last week with six strikeouts in his last three games. Hitting eighth, he averages 2.7 plate appearances a game. Pecko is unlikely to pitch deep, so Houston's rested lefties, Josh Hader and Bryan King, could face him late. Seattle also has right-handed bench bats in Victor Robles and Taylor Ward if a lefty comes in. My conviction here is smaller, but he opens the game in the one matchup where he has produced.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.