Blue Jays at Orioles
O/U 6.5 · RL Orioles -1.5 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Orioles MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Baltimore Orioles ML -126
- Published odds
- -126
- Result
- Game identity unresolved
- Final score
- Not available
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
Orioles MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Baltimore Orioles ML -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Game identity unresolved
- Final score
- Not available
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 13 moves| Market | Opened Sep 23 5:00 AM | Close Sep 23 1:17 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Orioles -1.5 (+169) | Orioles -1.5 (+176) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-122) | 7 (-118) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Orioles -131 | Orioles -127 | +4 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 23 5:00 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+169) | 7 (-122) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+169) | 7 (-122) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 8:00 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+169) | 7 (-118) | Orioles -126 · Blue Jays +104 |
| Sep 23 8:59 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 7 (-124) | Orioles -126 · Blue Jays +104 |
| Sep 23 9:26 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 7 (-123) | Orioles -126 · Blue Jays +104 |
| Sep 23 9:38 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 7.5 (+104) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 10:06 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 7.5 (+101) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 10:33 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+167) | 7.5 (-105) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 10:55 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+167) | 7.5 (-103) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 11:15 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+167) | 7.5 (+103) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 11:22 AM | Orioles -1.5 (+167) | 7.5 (+103) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 12:29 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 7 (-111) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| Sep 23 12:37 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 7 (-110) | Orioles -131 · Blue Jays +109 |
| CLOSESep 23 1:17 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+176) | 7 (-118) | Orioles -127 · Blue Jays +106 |
The read: Baltimore Orioles ML
Game 1 of a Camden Yards doubleheader with both seasons on the line, per Sportsnet's report that a loss eliminates either club. It's Max Scherzer against old friend Chris Bassitt: 1:35 first pitch, 62 degrees, wind blowing in from center. My pick rests on who has to cover the innings after the starters. Bassitt averages 5.7 innings per start and has thrown 88 to 99 pitches every time out since mid-August. Scherzer averages 4.5 innings and has come out at 73 to 83 pitches in his last three starts. That leaves roughly 12 outs for a Toronto bullpen that has been leaning on the same arms. Tyler Rogers pitched Sep 19, 20 and 21, and Louis Varland was reported unavailable for four outs on Monday, with no reason given. John Schneider also has no Game 2 starter, with Dylan Cease out. On Baltimore's side, Andrew Kittredge, Anthony Nunez, Josh Walker and Luis De Leon haven't pitched since Sep 18.
The second reason is the lineups. Toronto plays without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (back) and Brett Bateman (hip), both new absences, and Alejandro Kirk is on the bench. Bassitt has held this club to one run over six innings in May and two runs over five-plus innings on Sep 11. For Baltimore, Pete Alonso has 40 homers and 108 RBI, including two home runs Monday. He carries a .919 OPS against right-handers and a .482 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs, the pitch Scherzer throws 47% of the time. This same lineup tagged Scherzer for six earned runs on Sep 11.
The best argument against me is that Scherzer is better than his 6.07 ERA. His 4.35 xERA beats Bassitt's 4.95. A cool day with the wind blowing in also takes some bite out of his biggest problem as a fly-ball pitcher, the home run. But I read that gap as a pricing question, not a verdict. At -126, the market is not pricing Scherzer's 6.07 ERA at face value; it already treats the starters as close, so I'm not overpaying for a fragile number. Varland, with a 1.29 ERA, is Toronto's real trump card. But his status is unknown, and getting to him means covering four innings first on a doubleheader day. Baltimore has holes too. Samuel Basallo is out after a foul ball off his mask, and Coby Mayo bats cleanup with a .571 OPS against right-handers. Still, I'm taking the starter who goes deeper, the bullpen with more arms that haven't pitched since Sep 18, and the best bat on the field against a thinned Toronto lineup. Orioles on the moneyline.
The read: Baltimore Orioles ML
The lights come on at Camden Yards for the nightcap, with a 15 mph wind blowing in from center and an Orioles club one loss from elimination facing a Blue Jays team that was officially eliminated this afternoon. For me this game comes down to the lineup card Toronto posted. Guerrero, Springer and Gimenez all played Game 1 and all sit tonight, and Bateman is out with a hip injury. That leaves Kirk and Okamoto as the only real threats. Keys (.196), Schneider (.145), Smith (.211) and Straw (.237) fill out most of the rest of the order. Toronto's contact over its last three games was a soft .295 xwOBA, and that was with the regulars playing. The lineup news came out today, and a price around 52% no-vig for Baltimore doesn't look like it has fully caught up.
The other half is Van Eyk, making his first MLB start with 1 strikeout in 6.2 innings and a 5.92 xERA. A pitcher who doesn't miss bats is putting balls in play against Alonso, who has 41 homers, a .919 OPS against right-handers and three homers in this series already. Mayo's .571 OPS against righties means Baltimore leans on Alonso, but it only takes a couple of big swings in a game like this. Walker, Cano and Wolfram didn't pitch in Game 1, and all three have been sharp over the last 30 days: Walker has allowed 0 earned runs in 11 innings, Cano has a 1.17 ERA and Wolfram 1.54. With tomorrow off, Albernaz can use all of them, although nobody has confirmed their availability.
The best argument against Baltimore is Gibson himself. His 7.36 ERA is backed by a 6.94 xERA, he walked 18 in 20.2 innings over his last five starts, and he hasn't started in the majors since June. Kittredge, Nunez and Garcia all pitched this afternoon, although on just 13, 14 and 7 pitches. Toronto also has Varland (1.29 ERA) and Miles (1.61) unused today. That's a real risk, and I don't expect Gibson to go deep. But walks cost the least against a lineup with no power behind Okamoto. I'll take the team still playing for something against a team resting its stars, at close to even money. Orioles on the moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Josh Smith (bats L) draws Chris Bassitt (RHP), batting 2nd
.699Smith hits much better against right-handers, and tonight he gets one in Bassitt. His .237 against lefties comes from just 29 at-bats, while the .699 rests on 170, so the split against righties is the number to trust. Batting 2nd adds trips to the plate, so price his props from the .699.
Colton Cowser (bats L) hits 6th against Max Scherzer (RHP)
.725Cowser's .725 against right-handers comes from 275 at-bats, a sample you can trust, while his .452 against lefties rests on just 56. Scherzer puts him on his good side. From the 6th spot he gets fewer trips to the plate, so any prop depends on how many times he bats as much as on the matchup.
COOLING OFF
Ernie Clement: .319 OPS in Last 15 Days
.319A .319 OPS over his last 42 at bats is down from a .660 season mark that wasn't high to begin with. That's a real slide over 15 days, though 42 at bats is still a thin sample that can move fast with a couple of hot games. With Toronto playing Baltimore next, there's little cushion in this matchup until his bat comes back to life given how modest the season baseline already is.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight
IN 12A 12 mph wind straight in from center on a 62-degree night should knock down the deep fly balls that usually leave Camden Yards. Scoring will have to come from singles, walks and doubles in the gaps. The 7.5 total already expects that, so check the wind again before first pitch.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Blue Jays are 6-5 vs Orioles this season
6-5At 6-5, Toronto's edge in this series is basically a coin flip, and the last meeting went to Baltimore, 4-3. Nothing here points to a clear driver, no hot arm or park effect, just two clubs trading close games all year. A series this even doesn't say much about who wins tonight.
REPLACEMENT
Nathan Lukes (.752 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
.711With Barger out 58 days with an elbow injury, Lukes plays right field and leads off against the right-hander Bassitt. His .752 against righties over 321 at-bats is a sample you can trust, and it beats his .711 overall. Leading off gives him the most trips to the plate, so start his props from the split.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Nathan Lukes
STARTSTART: Lukes moves to leadoff today with a favorable handedness matchup Why now: Toronto's confirmed lineup has Lukes batting leadoff today, up from the 3-hole on 9/21, facing right-hander Chris Bassitt. His season splits show a real handedness gap: .752 OPS vs RHP versus .530 vs LHP. Who it fits: Runs- and average-driven rosters in standard or points leagues wanting extra plate appearances at the top of an order. The risk: Toronto has a second game today that has not posted a lineup yet, so this call only covers the first game; don't assume Lukes plays both ends of a doubleheader. Watch next: Whether the leadoff spot holds through first pitch and whether Lukes starts the nightcap once that lineup posts. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 01:35 PM ET.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 23, 2026 at 11:21 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, fanatics, betmgm, caesars, draftkings.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKMAX SCHERZERPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5
I'm taking Max Scherzer over 14.5 outs at -136. He needs to get one out into the sixth or finish five full innings, and lately he has done that almost every time. His last eight starts, newest first, went 15, 15, 17, 21, 15, 12, 15 and 16 outs. That's seven of eight over this number. The one miss was the 7 run blowup at Tampa on August 19. The detail I like most is Sep 11 against this same Orioles lineup. He gave up six earned runs and still recorded 15 outs on 83 pitches. When Toronto is short on arms, John Schneider lets him wear a bad day.
Toronto is short on arms today. Dylan Cease was scratched from his Wednesday start, so Game 2 of this doubleheader has no settled starter. On Monday the bullpen covered six innings after Trey Yesavage came back from the injured list and threw only 40 pitches. Tyler Rogers worked Sep 19, 20 and 21, and Chad Dallas threw 34 pitches Monday. Scherzer is on six days of rest and has been efficient. He recorded 15 outs on 73 pitches against Detroit last time out. The cool air and the wind blowing in from center also help a fly ball pitcher keep his pitch count down.
The strongest case against me is how thin the margin is. Five of those eight starts ended at exactly 15 outs, so he has been living right at this line, and one out short loses the ticket. His season average is 13.6 outs, pulled down by early starts of 2.0, 2.1 and 2.1 innings. His first inning ERA is 9.56 across 16 innings, and in a game Toronto has to win, a crooked number early could bring a hook no matter who is available in the pen. I'll take the recent pattern and the doubleheader math over the season number.
- GARY'S PICKMAX SCHERZERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
I'm taking Max Scherzer over 1.5 earned runs at -145, so two earned runs cashes it. The price implies about 59 percent. He has gone over in five of his last eight starts, allowing 1, 6, 3, 0, 2, 7, 1 and 2 newest first, and he averages 3.1 earned runs per start this season. The split I'm leaning on is his platoon line. Left-handed hitters have a .851 OPS and 9 homers in 175 at bats against him. Right-handed hitters have a .584 OPS. Baltimore's top of the order has the left-handed bats that matter. Gunnar Henderson is 8 for 25 over the last week and 4 for 10 career against him. Colton Cowser is 3 for 7 with two homers off him, and Dylan Beavers is 2 for 4 with a homer. Those are tiny samples, so I weigh the platoon split more than the head to head numbers. On Sep 11, left-handed hitters went 6 for 14 with a homer against him in the six run start.
The weather matters less than it looks. The wind blowing in hurts home runs, but 12 of the 15 recent scoring plays against him came without the ball leaving the park. They were singles and doubles strung together, which is how Baltimore scored five in the second inning on Sep 11.
The case against me is real. This Orioles lineup is thin. Samuel Basallo is out after taking a foul tip off his mask, Carlos Narvaez catches with a .477 OPS, Jeremiah Jackson has a .611 OPS, Coby Mayo has a .571 OPS against right-handers, and Beavers is 1 for 18 over the last week. Pete Alonso is only 4 for 23 lifetime against Scherzer. Baltimore averaged 3.2 runs over its last five games and was shut out twice by Milwaukee. Toronto has also made seven errors in its last seven games, and any unearned run does nothing for this ticket. Scherzer's last start was one earned run over five innings. Still, a pitcher with a 5.25 ERA outside his worst start, working five or more innings against a lineup with those left-handed bats at the top, should give up two earned runs more often than this price implies.
- GARY'S PICKJOSH SMITHH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Smith can finish with one combined hit, run and RBI and still cash this under. Two or more loses. He has stayed below this line in 11 of his last 15 games, including each of his last five, and enters tonight 1 for 17 over the last seven days. His larger split against right handed pitching is also modest: a .229 average and .699 OPS across 170 at bats. He is batting second, though his season role has produced only 3.2 plate appearances and 1.1 combined hits, runs and RBIs per game across 73 games.
The strongest concern is Trey Gibson. Gibson owns a 7.36 ERA, a 1.91 WHIP and 25 walks in 33 innings, so Smith could reach base without hitting and benefit from traffic behind him. Gibson has also been especially vulnerable to left handed hitters, who have a .304 average against him across 79 at bats. Smith's lineup position gives him more opportunities than most Toronto hitters. I still prefer the established lack of production from Smith at this number, even against a volatile starter.
- GARY'S PICKCOBY MAYOH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Mayo can contribute one combined hit, run and RBI and still cash this under. He has stayed below the line in nine of his last 15 games and is 0 for 8 through the first two games of this series. The more useful matchup split covers 254 at bats against right handed pitching. Mayo has hit .177 with a .571 OPS in those opportunities, compared with a 1.097 OPS against left handed pitching. Toronto starts right hander CJ Van Eyk and has several rested right handed relievers available behind him.
The strongest contrary evidence is Mayo's role and Van Eyk's limited major league record. Mayo bats cleanup, averages 3.6 plate appearances per game and has produced 24 home runs with 63 RBIs this season. Van Eyk has thrown only 6.2 major league innings this year, allowing a 1.95 WHIP with just one strikeout, so his current numbers provide very little certainty. Alonso and Henderson batting ahead of Mayo also create RBI chances. The price leaves a narrow edge, driven mainly by Mayo's substantial right handed pitching split and his recent lack of production.
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