Mets at Rangers
O/U 7.5 · RL Mets -1.5 · Globe Life Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Mets ML -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 7-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 18 moves| Market | Opened Sep 23 5:00 AM | Close Sep 23 7:05 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Mets -1.5 (+158) | Mets -1.5 (+153) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-112) | 8 (-108) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Rangers -112 | Rangers -110 | +2 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 23 5:00 AM | Mets -1.5 (+158) | 7.5 (-112) | Rangers -112 · Mets -107 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | Mets -1.5 (+157) | 7.5 (-112) | Rangers -112 · Mets -107 |
| Sep 23 7:15 AM | Mets -1.5 (+163) | 7.5 (-112) | Rangers -112 · Mets -107 |
| Sep 23 8:00 AM | Mets -1.5 (+162) | 7.5 (-112) | Rangers -112 · Mets -107 |
| Sep 23 8:59 AM | Mets -1.5 (+156) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -112 · Mets -108 |
| Sep 23 9:26 AM | Mets -1.5 (+157) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -112 · Mets -108 |
| Sep 23 9:38 AM | Mets -1.5 (+156) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -112 · Mets -108 |
| Sep 23 10:06 AM | Mets -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -112 · Mets -107 |
| Sep 23 10:55 AM | Mets -1.5 (+158) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -112 · Mets -107 |
| Sep 23 12:29 PM | Mets -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| Sep 23 12:46 PM | Mets -1.5 (+156) | 7.5 (-110) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| Sep 23 1:17 PM | Mets -1.5 (+152) | 8 (-102) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| Sep 23 3:26 PM | Mets -1.5 (+152) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -111 · Mets -108 |
| Sep 23 3:54 PM | Mets -1.5 (+154) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -111 · Mets -108 |
| Sep 23 4:15 PM | Mets -1.5 (+153) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| Sep 23 4:35 PM | Mets -1.5 (+152) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| Sep 23 6:05 PM | Mets -1.5 (+151) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| Sep 23 6:20 PM | Mets -1.5 (+151) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
| CLOSESep 23 7:05 PM | Mets -1.5 (+153) | 8 (-108) | Rangers -110 · Mets -109 |
The read
Under the closed roof in Arlington, a Rangers team clinging to a share of the AL West hands the ball to Cody Bradford against Nolan McLean and a Mets club playing out the string. My pick rests on two connected questions: how long each starter can stay in the game, and whose bullpen has to cover the rest. McLean has gone 6.0, 5.0, 6.0, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in his last five starts, and right-handed hitters have only a .515 OPS against him. Bradford has gone 4.0, 4.0, 5.2, 5.1 and 4.0 in his last five starts and has 20 strikeouts in 38.2 innings all season. His main pitch is an 88.5 mph four-seamer that he throws 53.5% of the time and that allows a .375 xwOBA. Soto (.424 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Benge (.398) are the bats built to punish that pitch. Bradford's 4.19 ERA sits on a 5.16 xERA, so a pick'em price is paying for a fragile number.
Because Bradford doesn't go deep, Texas has to cover roughly half the game with its bullpen. Eovaldi, Junis, Garcia and Gray all pitched Tuesday, and there is no report on whether any of them is available tonight. Silseth is rested, but he has a 7.56 ERA over his last 30 days. Latz, Montgomery and Trevor Williams give Texas real options, but that is a lot of outs for a thin group. If McLean pitches his usual length, the Mets need fewer bullpen outs, and their relievers have an 18.72 strikeout-minus-walk rate in tracked games against 10.37 for Texas. Seager (.646 OPS over his last 10 games) and Nimmo (.626) are the lefties best placed to attack McLean's weaker side, and both come in cold.
The best case against this is real. Texas is 44-35 at home with the division on the line, and McLean's control has slipped: he has walked 4.5 batters per nine innings over his last five starts. A patient Rangers lineup led by Jung and Langford could run up his pitch count and bring the Mets bullpen in early. I'm taking the Mets anyway. The price already gives Texas credit for home field and urgency. It doesn't give enough credit to a starting-pitching gap that gets bigger the longer the game goes. At -108, I'll back the better starter and the lighter bullpen load.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Cody Bradford: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.24Bradford has allowed 11 earned runs in 13.2 innings, and his 1.83 WHIP is up from an already high 1.50 for the season. Traffic has been a problem for a while and has gotten worse. His 4.19 season ERA is a fairer baseline, but that WHIP leaves less room for a rebound. Against the Mets, expect men on base and a short outing.
COOLING OFF
Ezequiel Duran: .356 OPS in Last 15 Days
.356A .356 OPS across 45 at bats over the last 15 days is well under his .755 season mark. Fifteen days is a short window, so this reads as a slump rather than a new level for him, one that could flip with a single strong week. With the Mets visiting Texas next, .755 remains the more reliable read on what he brings to the lineup until the recent number moves closer to it.
TEAM RECORD
Rangers 1-6 in Cody Bradford's last 7 starts
1-6Texas has lost the last 6 games Bradford started, and the one win came before that streak. A team record in a pitcher's starts also depends on the lineup and the bullpen, and 7 starts is a small sample. A skid this long is usually built into the line against the Mets already, so check whether his own pitching explains it before you lean on it.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 23, 2026 at 11:21 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betmgm, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKNOLAN MCLEANPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5
I'm taking Nolan McLean under 2.5 earned runs at -160. That price implies about a 61.5% chance he allows two or fewer. Over his full season, he has done it in 22 of 30 starts, which is 73%. In his last eight starts he allowed 1, 5, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 5 earned runs, and he averages 2.0 per start. The line is sitting above what he usually allows, and I'm happy to take the extra margin.
The matchup helps. Texas is hitting .234 with a .694 OPS against right-handed pitching and is 51-59 against right-handed starters. Joc Pederson is out, and the bottom of tonight's order is thin against righties: Nicky Lopez has a .666 OPS against them, Danny Jansen .664 and Evan Carter .666. Right-handed hitters have a .515 OPS off McLean this season. Five of tonight's nine Rangers bat right-handed, including Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford and Jake Burger. McLean has 189 strikeouts in 172.2 innings and a 6.5% barrel rate allowed. His curveball has a .191 xwOBA and a 53% chase rate, so he can get himself out of a jam when runners reach. Workload is part of this too. This is his last regular season start on a team out of the race. The club has said it is managing his innings, and he threw 82 pitches last time out. A shorter night gives him fewer innings in which to give up runs.
The strongest case against this is the left-handed bats and his walks. Lefties have a .730 OPS and 13 homers against him. Seager, Nimmo, Lopez and Carter all bat left, and Seager has an .840 OPS in September. McLean has walked at least three batters in five of his last eight starts, and his September ERA is 4.24 over 17 innings. His worst start of the month was 5 earned runs at Yankee Stadium. A few walks and one ball in the air against a Texas team fighting for the division could push this over. Still, over a 30 start sample he stays at two or fewer far more often than -160 suggests, and I'll take it.
- GARY'S PICKCODY BRADFORDPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
I'm taking Cody Bradford over 1.5 earned runs at -158. For this to cash, he has to be charged with two runs. He has done that in six of his seven starts this season. After four scoreless innings on Aug. 5, his starts went 3, 2, 2, 3, 5 and 3 earned runs. Seven starts is a small sample, but the pattern is consistent, and the underlying numbers explain it. He has struck out 20 batters in 38.2 innings with a 1.50 WHIP. Opponents have a 37% hard-hit rate against him, and his ground-out to air-out ratio is 0.61. Hitters make contact, and a lot of that contact is in the air. Across his recent starts he allowed 14 scoring plays and only 4 were home runs. He gives up runs by allowing baserunners in bunches, and that makes two runs a low bar.
The Mets have right-handed hitters who handle lefties. Mark Vientos has an .859 OPS against lefties in 105 at bats, and Bo Bichette has a .786 OPS against them. Right-handed hitters have a .751 OPS off Bradford. The short leash also works in my favor in one way. Texas will go to the bullpen quickly, and any runner Bradford leaves on base still counts against him if he scores.
The strongest case against this is the same short leash. The outs line is 12.5, and his last three starts ended after 12, 12 and 13 outs. Jacob Latz, Jordan Montgomery and Trevor Williams are all rested, and Skip Schumaker has a division race to manage. If Bradford is pulled at the first sign of trouble, he has fewer chances to reach two runs. The Mets are a poor lineup against left-handers, with a .682 OPS, and they are 19-26 against left-handed starters. Juan Soto is 0 for 4 against Bradford in his career. Bradford's last outing was his best of the year: 4.1 scoreless innings in bulk relief against Boston, with his changeup getting a 33% whiff rate. Even so, a pitcher who allows this much contact reaches two runs more often than the 61% that -158 implies, and I'm betting the over.
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