Marlins at Cubs
O/U 6.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Chicago Cubs ML -180
- Published odds
- -180
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 13 moves| Market | Opened Sep 23 5:00 AM | Close Sep 23 7:35 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-107) | 6.5 (-121) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Cubs -175 | Cubs -194 | −19 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 23 5:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 7 (-107) | Cubs -175 · Marlins +144 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 7 (-107) | Cubs -175 · Marlins +144 |
| Sep 23 7:15 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 7 (-107) | Cubs -175 · Marlins +144 |
| Sep 23 8:59 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 7 (-107) | Cubs -179 · Marlins +147 |
| Sep 23 9:26 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 6.5 (-120) | Cubs -179 · Marlins +147 |
| Sep 23 12:29 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 6.5 (-120) | Cubs -180 · Marlins +149 |
| Sep 23 12:46 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 6.5 (-120) | Cubs -181 · Marlins +149 |
| Sep 23 1:17 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+129) | 6.5 (-122) | Cubs -181 · Marlins +149 |
| Sep 23 3:26 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+124) | 6.5 (-122) | Cubs -186 · Marlins +153 |
| Sep 23 5:10 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+123) | 6.5 (-122) | Cubs -193 · Marlins +158 |
| Sep 23 5:20 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+123) | 6.5 (-120) | Cubs -193 · Marlins +158 |
| Sep 23 6:10 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+123) | 6.5 (-120) | Cubs -193 · Marlins +158 |
| Sep 23 6:45 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | 6.5 (-120) | Cubs -194 · Marlins +159 |
| CLOSESep 23 7:35 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | 6.5 (-121) | Cubs -194 · Marlins +159 |
The read
Game 2 at Wrigley on a cool 63-degree night, with a 12 mph wind blowing in from center. The Cubs can clinch a postseason berth, and the Marlins team that spoiled it last night is back. My pick rests on the middle innings. Ryan Gusto has thrown 4.1, 6.0, 4.2, 4.1 and 5.2 innings in his last five starts. He has a 1.68 WHIP over that stretch, with 18 strikeouts against 11 walks. The last time he faced the Cubs, they got 10 hits and 5 earned runs off him in 4.2 innings. His 4.14 ERA sits against a 4.95 xERA, so the market is paying for a fragile number on the Miami side. When he leaves, Miami's bullpen takes over the night after using eight relievers in a 12-inning game. Faucher and Petersen have been excellent, with 0.00 and 0.90 ERAs over the last 30 days. Behind them, Zuber is at 10.22 and Gibson at 6.35 over the same window. Miami's relievers have a 5.33 ERA over the last two weeks; the Cubs' have a 3.38.
The other side of the matchup also favors Chicago. Kevin Gausman has a 4.01 xERA and 177 strikeouts in 172 innings, and he has thrown 94 to 103 pitches in each of his last five starts. That means the Cubs' bullpen should have fewer innings to cover. With the wind blowing in tonight, fly balls shouldn't carry, and home runs are how he's been hurt as a Cub. Balls kept in play meet a Cubs defense with 59 errors to Miami's 98. The lineup gap is real too: the Cubs score 5.3 runs a game to Miami's 4.5, and the Marlins are 32-47 on the road.
The best argument against the Cubs is Gausman himself. As a Cub he has a 5.04 ERA and has allowed 10 home runs in 44.2 innings, with five or more earned runs in three of his eight starts. Last night Janson Junk and Miami's relievers held this lineup to two runs over 12 innings. Chicago is also without Bregman and has no settled closer, with Webb at a 10.29 ERA over 30 days. At -180, I'm not getting this cheap. I take it anyway because my edge doesn't need Gausman to be great. It rests on Gusto's short outings and on how thin Miami's pen is behind its top two arms. I'll take the moneyline rather than -1.5: with the wind in, a low total, and a home team that may not bat in the ninth, the margin could easily be one run.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Jakob Marsee: 1.151 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.151Marsee's 1.151 OPS over the last 15 days covers 43 at-bats, 0.444 above his .707 season baseline. His total-bases line is 0.5, so one base cashes it. A 43 at-bat run like this happens to plenty of hitters.
COOLING OFF
Kyle Stowers: .451 OPS in Last 15 Days
.451A .451 OPS across 47 at bats over the last 15 days is down from .773 for the season. That's a real dip, but 47 at bats is still a short window that a good week could erase. With Miami at Chicago next, the season mark is the more useful number for gauging what he can do at the plate until this stretch corrects.
BALLPARK
Kevin Gausman's ERA jumps to 6.75 at Wrigley Field
6.75A 6.75 ERA at Wrigley comes from just five starts and 24 innings, with hitters batting .300 off him there, well off the 4.20 he's run over 148 innings everywhere else. That's too few outings to call a real park effect, more like a couple of bad nights inflating the number. He starts at Wrigley tonight, the exact spot on the sheet, but the much larger road sample says his true form is closer to 4.20 than 6.75.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 13 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
IN 13Wrigley Field has wind at 13 mph in from right field, partly cloudy and 63 degrees, with the total at 6.5. A 13 mph wind blowing in knocks down anything hit in the air. The low total says the market has priced the conditions.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 23, 2026 at 11:21 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKRYAN GUSTOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5
I'm on Ryan Gusto under 15.5 outs at -160. To go over, he has to record 16 outs, which means getting an out in the sixth inning. He hasn't worked that way this year. In his last eight starts he recorded 13, 18, 14, 13, 17, 12, 14 and 12 outs, so he cleared 15.5 twice. Across 17 starts he averages 12.9 outs, about 4.1 innings, and his 82.2 innings over those starts work out to under five a start. Even in August, when his ERA was 1.88, he went 4.0, 5.2 and 4.1 innings. Miami has used him as a two-times-through arm, and his pitch counts in the last eight starts were 86, 89, 100, 69, 89, 62, 70 and 60.
The matchup doesn't help him go longer. This lineup got 10 hits and 5 earned runs off him in 4.2 innings on September 5, and that start cost him 100 pitches. He also gave up 8 hits and 2 home runs in 4.1 innings at Arizona last time out. Chicago bats .247 with a .760 OPS against right-handers and scores 5.3 runs a game. Crow-Armstrong hits right-handers at a .979 OPS, so the top of the order will make him work.
The strongest case against me is last night. Miami used eight relievers over 12 innings, and McCullough has reason to let Gusto go deep if he's efficient. The 12 mph wind blowing in could also keep a few fly balls in the park and save him pitches, and the Cubs are without Bregman. Still, no Miami reliever threw more than 21 pitches yesterday, and none has pitched both of the last two days, so the pen can cover the middle innings. A manager who uses a scheduled starter for an eighth-inning tie isn't going to stretch a fifth starter through the Cubs a third time to save his relievers. At -160 the price is steep. The under has cashed in six of his last eight starts, and I expect this to be the seventh.
- GARY'S PICKJAKOB MARSEEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Jakob Marsee over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -151. This cashes if he gets one hit, scores once or drives in one run. He's the hottest bat in this Miami lineup. He's hitting .369 with a 1.052 OPS in September, went 18 for 43 over the last 15 days and 7 for 16 over the last week. The over has hit in 11 of his last 15 games, and the misses were zeros rather than near misses. His scores in that stretch include a 5, two 6s and an 8. He came off the bench last night and still had a single, a run and an RBI in three at-bats.
The matchup fits him. Kevin Gausman has a 6.75 ERA in 24 innings at Wrigley. Runners are 19 for 22 stealing against him, and Marsee has 23 steals this year, so any time he reaches first he has a real chance to score. Marsee is a left-handed hitter with a .348 OBP and 77 walks. That means a walk and a stolen base can still get him a run without a hit.
The strongest evidence against me starts with where he bats. He's sixth tonight, which costs him a plate appearance compared with leading off, and he's only 1 for 5 in his career against Gausman. He also hits right-handers at a .721 OPS, below his current form, and Gausman's splitter gets a whiff on 41.6% of swings. With the wind blowing in, I also expect a lower-scoring game with fewer runs to go around. I passed on Heriberto Hernandez at -169 because he's hitting .216 with a .514 OPS over the last 15 days and is 0 for 3 against Gausman. Marsee has the better form and the cheaper price, so I'm betting that his current run carries into one more game.
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