Sports Picks Archive — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· +116

Bronx matinee, first game of a doubleheader, division leaders in for four with the Yankees needing a sweep to keep the East alive. Nick Martinez against Carlos Rodón, and I am taking the plus money on Tampa Bay. The pick rides on two things: the bullpens and the price. In the tracked window the Rays' relievers are running a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while the Yankees' pen sits at 4.14 and 1.40, and this is Game 1 of a doubleheader, so neither manager can empty the pen with a nightcap still to play. That squeeze hurts the thinner, worse pen, and that is New York's. Bryan Baker has 40 saves and a 1.49 ERA and has not worked since Saturday. On the other side Boone bypassed David Bednar for Michael Fulmer on Saturday and paid for it, Brent Headrick has a 6.75 ERA over his last seven with three inherited runners scoring Sunday, John Schreiber gave up two runs Sunday, and Clarke Schmidt's Sunday biceps scare is unresolved. If Rodón hands over a one-run lead after five or six, I trust the Tampa pen to hold twelve outs far more than I trust New York's. Then the starters: Martinez has walked 24 batters in 171.1 innings this year and two in his last five starts, while Rodón has walked 38 in 76.1 innings and allows hard contact on 39.1 percent of balls in play. Both carry a 2.9 ERA with an xERA near 4.0, so the market at -134 is paying home-field money for a Rodón number that is no more solid than Martinez's. The Rays are 40-34 on the road, so this is close to a coin flip at this venue, and I am getting +116 on the better team with the better pen. The best argument against me is real: Martinez is a fly-ball righty who has allowed four homers in his last five starts, and he is walking into the short porch against Rice, García, Bellinger, and Jones with the Yankees posting a .365 expected wOBA over their last three games. Two swings can end this. I take the Rays anyway because the wind is blowing in, Tampa is 8-2 in its last ten allowing about two runs a game, and the part of this game the Yankees have to win with their bullpen is the part they are worst equipped to win today.

The pick rides on two things: the bullpens and the price. In the tracked window the Rays' relievers are running a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while the Yankees' pen sits at 4.14 and 1.40, and this is Game 1 of a doubleheader, so neither manager can empty the pen with a nightcap still to play. That squeeze hurts the thinner, worse pen, and that is New York's. Bryan Baker has 40 saves and a 1.49 ERA and has not worked since Saturday. On the other side Boone bypassed David Bednar for Michael Fulmer on Saturday and paid for it, Brent Headrick has a 6.75 ERA over his last seven with three inherited runners scoring Sunday, John Schreiber gave up two runs Sunday, and Clarke Schmidt's Sunday biceps scare is unresolved. If Rodón hands over a one-run lead after five or six, I trust the Tampa pen to hold twelve outs far more than I trust New York's. Then the starters: Martinez has walked 24 batters in 171.1 innings this year and two in his last five starts, while Rodón has walked 38 in 76.1 innings and allows hard contact on 39.1 percent of balls in play. Both carry a 2.9 ERA with an xERA near 4.0, so the market at -134 is paying home-field money for a Rodón number that is no more solid than Martinez's. The Rays are 40-34 on the road, so this is close to a coin flip at this venue, and I am getting +116 on the better team with the better pen.

The best argument against me is real: Martinez is a fly-ball righty who has allowed four homers in his last five starts, and he is walking into the short porch against Rice, García, Bellinger, and Jones with the Yankees posting a .365 expected wOBA over their last three games. Two swings can end this. I take the Rays anyway because the wind is blowing in, Tampa is 8-2 in its last ten allowing about two runs a game, and the part of this game the Yankees have to win with their bullpen is the part they are worst equipped to win today.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -172

Tuesday night at PNC Park, 59 degrees with a 14 mph wind blowing in off the river, and two eliminated clubs open Pittsburgh's final home series with Jared Jones against Andre Pallante. The standings say both are playing for nothing, so this one comes down to the arms and the ninth inning. Two things carry my pick. First, the mound mismatch runs deeper than the ERAs. Jones owns a slider with a 41.5 percent whiff rate on 523 pitches, and the two Cardinals bats that matter most are exposed to it. Burleson posts a .336 xwOBA against sliders on 83 plate appearances and Walker a .206 on 100. Jones has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 15 starts, carries a 2.75 ERA over his last five, and struck out nine Brewers his last time out. Pallante is the opposite profile. He is a 6.2 K/9 pitcher whose strikeout rate has slipped to 4.7 over his last five turns, and he walks into a lineup where seven of nine hitters bat left-handed against his .703 OPS allowed to lefties on 321 at-bats. Oneil Cruz hits .337 with a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers on 111 plate appearances, and Pallante throws that pitch 33.8 percent of the time with a 14.9 percent whiff rate. Cruz is slashing .318/.407/.533 since coming off the injured list, and Pittsburgh is 52-41 with him in the lineup. Then the ninth inning belongs to Pittsburgh. Mason Montgomery has not allowed a run in 23 and two-thirds innings dating to July 26. Riley O'Brien has 38 saves but nine blown, and reporting puts his post-break ERA at 10.80. In a game with a total of 7 to 7.5, where one run decides it, that closer gap is the edge. The best argument against me is Pallante's road split, a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings backed by a 4.9 percent barrel rate and a cleaner infield behind him at .987. That is real, and it is why I am not touching the run line. But his 4.04 xERA says the market is already paying for a fragile number, his last start was six earned on 99 pitches, and a contact pitcher who cannot miss bats is a bad fit against this many lefties. Paying -172 for a 79-77 team is steep, and I would rather have it at Caesars' -164, but the starter, the platoon fit, and the closer all point the same direction. Pirates to win.

Pallante is the opposite profile. He is a 6.2 K/9 pitcher whose strikeout rate has slipped to 4.7 over his last five turns, and he walks into a lineup where seven of nine hitters bat left-handed against his .703 OPS allowed to lefties on 321 at-bats. Oneil Cruz hits .337 with a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers on 111 plate appearances, and Pallante throws that pitch 33.8 percent of the time with a 14.9 percent whiff rate. Cruz is slashing .318/.407/.533 since coming off the injured list, and Pittsburgh is 52-41 with him in the lineup. Then the ninth inning belongs to Pittsburgh. Mason Montgomery has not allowed a run in 23 and two-thirds innings dating to July 26. Riley O'Brien has 38 saves but nine blown, and reporting puts his post-break ERA at 10.80. In a game with a total of 7 to 7.5, where one run decides it, that closer gap is the edge.

The best argument against me is Pallante's road split, a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings backed by a 4.9 percent barrel rate and a cleaner infield behind him at .987. That is real, and it is why I am not touching the run line. But his 4.04 xERA says the market is already paying for a fragile number, his last start was six earned on 99 pitches, and a contact pitcher who cannot miss bats is a bad fit against this many lefties. Paying -172 for a 79-77 team is steep, and I would rather have it at Caesars' -164, but the starter, the platoon fit, and the closer all point the same direction. Pirates to win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Nationals· -146

Two eliminated ballclubs under the lights at Comerica, 63 degrees and a crosswind, and Washington is about to try to cover nine innings without a starting pitcher. That's the whole ballgame for me. Riley Cornelio is listed as the starter, but his own log says otherwise — across his last ten big-league appearances he threw 19.1 innings on 343 pitches, and his longest outing was three innings. His biggest pitch count was 47, twice, and neither time did he get through three. If he gives Washington three, somebody has to record eighteen outs out of a relief corps carrying a 5.26 ERA with 31 walks in 51.1 innings and 42 blown saves on the year — after Luis Perales threw 47 pitches and Josiah Gray threw 32 in this same ballpark last night. Detroit's side of that math is twelve outs with Kenley Jansen and Tyler Kinley on three days off and a pen sitting at 2.68 with twelve walks all sample. That gap isn't a narrative. It's arithmetic. The second thing carrying this: free baserunners. Cornelio has allowed 24 hits in 32 innings — he's hard to square up — but he's walked 25. Drew Anderson has walked 43 in 102. Detroit is chasing 25.3 percent of the time over its last three games and barreling 10.5 percent; Washington is chasing 31.3 and barreling 4.7 into a pitcher whose changeup and curve are built to be chased. On the price: Eduardo Valencia's .354 is flagged .081 of wOBA above his expected output, so the market is paying for something fragile in Detroit's recent box scores. I'm not leaning on his bat. I'm leaning on traffic. The honest counter is that Washington's offense is the better one — 5.1 runs a game to Detroit's 4.5 — and their bats are situational killers, with Andres Chaparro at .341 and a 1.136 OPS in scoring position and CJ Abrams at .303 across 142 such at-bats. In a low-total park that's exactly how a plus-money dog cashes. I'll wear it. When one side has to survive six innings of its own bullpen and the other doesn't, I take the side that doesn't.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -184

Two back-end starters meet at Truist Park on a warm, overcast September night, and this one figures to be decided in the middle innings by the bullpens waiting behind them. That's the spine of this pick. JR Ritchie (5.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) hasn't completed five innings in any of his last five starts, and Brandon Williamson (5.56 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) is only three starts into a comeback from a season-long shoulder injury — neither is a bet to go deep. When the game turns to relief, Atlanta has the clearer edge: its bullpen has been far better in the tracked sample (3.80 team relief ERA vs Cincinnati's 6.00), and every Atlanta arm enters with at least a day of rest. On a night both managers will be reaching for the pen early, that's a real, asymmetric advantage. The matchup details lean the same way. Williamson has been hit hard by right-handed bats — .263 AVG / .837 OPS with 5 HR allowed to RHB — and Atlanta's lineup is righty-heavy (Acuña, Dubón, Riley, Murphy, Kim, plus switch-hitter Albies). Atlanta is 51-27 at home, 7-3 over its last ten, and its team pitching (3.61 ERA / 1.25 WHIP) and offense (.248 / .722) both outclass Cincinnati's (.229 / .699, 4.89 team ERA). Williamson's 5.56 ERA also outruns his 6.35 xERA by 0.79 — a fragile number the market is paying into, and reason to value the favorite honestly rather than chase the dog. The case against me is real: Ritchie has leaked against left-handed hitters (.832 OPS, 7 HR in 137 AB), and Cincinnati stacks lefty bats at the top around Elly De La Cruz, the best hitter in this game. And -184 is steep for a team that already clinched its division. But the Reds are 72-84, 3-7 in their last ten, and averaging 7.2 runs allowed over that stretch. Two shaky starters plus a superior, rested bullpen and a platoon-friendly lineup is enough edge to lay the price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Brewers· -142

Citizens Bank Park, Tuesday night — Zack Wheeler takes the ball for a Phillies team fighting for its playoff life, against a Brewers club that has already punched its October ticket and is playing for seeding. The way I see it, the single biggest lever in a baseball game is the starting pitcher, and this gap is as wide as the price says. Wheeler is 13-5 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, and — this is the part that matters to me — that 2.99 ERA is matched by a 2.99 xERA, with his opponent wOBA (.280) actually running better than his xwOBA (.268). That's not a fragile number the market is overpaying for; the results are real. He's on five full days of rest after back-to-back 7-inning starts. Dustin May is the opposite profile: a 4.61 ERA against a 4.42 xERA, so his results are basically earned, and he's being asked to do it on shorter-than-standard rest after a 2.1-inning, 70-pitch clunker on Sep 18. He also carries a 5.76 road ERA. Then the platoon shape stacks against May. Both lineups lean left-handed, and May's weak side is genuinely soft — .272 AVG / .743 OPS to left-handers — while the Phillies stack six lefty bats (Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh, Crawford) right at him. Harper gets his monster split against righties (.301 AVG / 1.003 OPS, 24 HR), and Schwarber has punished sinkers all season (.326 AVG / .487 xwOBA) — a pitch that sits near the top of May's hard-pitch usage. Wheeler's own weak side is still a stingy .688 OPS to lefties, so the lefty-leaning Milwaukee order doesn't get the same relief. Let me be honest about the case against me: the Brewers are 98-58, riding an 8-2 L10 with 6.8 runs a game scored and 3.6 allowed, they just swept Baltimore, and they own the deeper bullpen — Milwaukee's tracked relief line is 3.60 / 1.24 against Philadelphia's 5.27 / 1.68, with the Phillies' bridge to Jhoan Duran genuinely unsettled and Jonathan Bowlan's availability unknown. That is a real path to a Brewers win, and "best team in baseball at plus money" is tempting. But that surface record is exactly what gets overvalued against a clear ace-versus-back-end mismatch, and a starter who routinely works seven innings is the cleanest way to shorten a game and keep a shaky bullpen out of the middle. Better pitcher, at home, in the better platoon spot — I'm laying the price. Phillies moneyline.

The way I see it, the single biggest lever in a baseball game is the starting pitcher, and this gap is as wide as the price says. Wheeler is 13-5 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, and — this is the part that matters to me — that 2.99 ERA is matched by a 2.99 xERA, with his opponent wOBA (.280) actually running better than his xwOBA (.268). That's not a fragile number the market is overpaying for; the results are real. He's on five full days of rest after back-to-back 7-inning starts. Dustin May is the opposite profile: a 4.61 ERA against a 4.42 xERA, so his results are basically earned, and he's being asked to do it on shorter-than-standard rest after a 2.1-inning, 70-pitch clunker on Sep 18. He also carries a 5.76 road ERA.

Then the platoon shape stacks against May. Both lineups lean left-handed, and May's weak side is genuinely soft — .272 AVG / .743 OPS to left-handers — while the Phillies stack six lefty bats (Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh, Crawford) right at him. Harper gets his monster split against righties (.301 AVG / 1.003 OPS, 24 HR), and Schwarber has punished sinkers all season (.326 AVG / .487 xwOBA) — a pitch that sits near the top of May's hard-pitch usage. Wheeler's own weak side is still a stingy .688 OPS to lefties, so the lefty-leaning Milwaukee order doesn't get the same relief.

Let me be honest about the case against me: the Brewers are 98-58, riding an 8-2 L10 with 6.8 runs a game scored and 3.6 allowed, they just swept Baltimore, and they own the deeper bullpen — Milwaukee's tracked relief line is 3.60 / 1.24 against Philadelphia's 5.27 / 1.68, with the Phillies' bridge to Jhoan Duran genuinely unsettled and Jonathan Bowlan's availability unknown. That is a real path to a Brewers win, and "best team in baseball at plus money" is tempting. But that surface record is exactly what gets overvalued against a clear ace-versus-back-end mismatch, and a starter who routinely works seven innings is the cleanest way to shorten a game and keep a shaky bullpen out of the middle. Better pitcher, at home, in the better platoon spot — I'm laying the price. Phillies moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· +110

Fenway Park on a cool September night, two left-handers on the mound, a division race on one side and a team already through to October on the other — and the market handing the road club plus money. That's where I want to be. Parker Messick is the better pitcher by the full-season body of work: 12-9, 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 186 strikeouts across 178.1 innings and 30 starts, against a rookie carrying 143.0 innings. More importantly, his splits land exactly where tonight needs them — a 2.21 road ERA and 2.34 mark at night, and he's at his best against right-handed hitters (.586 OPS allowed vs RHB). Boston's lineup is seven-of-nine right-handed once the switch-hitters turn around, so Messick draws the side of the platoon where he's strongest. Cleveland gets the better arm, on his better split, at +110. The Guardians are also the hotter and more motivated side. They're 7-3 over their last ten at 5.6 runs per game; Boston is 4-6 at 3.0 runs per game. Cleveland has to keep winning outright because the White Sox own the head-to-head tiebreaker in the Central — every night is a playoff game for them. Boston already clinched its Wild Card, and its order is thinner, with Contreras (its top OPS bat) out of the mix, leaving Abreu as the primary power threat over a cold bottom third. Cleveland's core is intact, with Ramírez and Martínez swinging it well. The honest case against me is that Tolle's peripherals are actually better than his ERA — his 2.66 xERA says he's underperformed his 3.02 mark, while Messick's 2.57 is running 0.54 ahead of his 3.11 xERA. That's a real read on the price of Boston's starter, and it's why this game is -130 and not steeper. But Tolle also draws Fenway, his worse venue split (3.55 home ERA vs 2.50 on the road), against a Cleveland team that's better away than at home. And in a game the run line prices as a one-run coin flip, the ninth inning breaks my way: Cade Smith is a clean, dominant closer, while Boston's Chapman is unconfirmed with a lat issue. I'll take the plus money on the better starter, the hotter team, and the steadier ninth.

That's where I want to be. Parker Messick is the better pitcher by the full-season body of work: 12-9, 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 186 strikeouts across 178.1 innings and 30 starts, against a rookie carrying 143.0 innings. More importantly, his splits land exactly where tonight needs them — a 2.21 road ERA and 2.34 mark at night, and he's at his best against right-handed hitters (.586 OPS allowed vs RHB). Boston's lineup is seven-of-nine right-handed once the switch-hitters turn around, so Messick draws the side of the platoon where he's strongest. Cleveland gets the better arm, on his better split, at +110.

The Guardians are also the hotter and more motivated side. They're 7-3 over their last ten at 5.6 runs per game; Boston is 4-6 at 3.0 runs per game. Cleveland has to keep winning outright because the White Sox own the head-to-head tiebreaker in the Central — every night is a playoff game for them. Boston already clinched its Wild Card, and its order is thinner, with Contreras (its top OPS bat) out of the mix, leaving Abreu as the primary power threat over a cold bottom third. Cleveland's core is intact, with Ramírez and Martínez swinging it well.

The honest case against me is that Tolle's peripherals are actually better than his ERA — his 2.66 xERA says he's underperformed his 3.02 mark, while Messick's 2.57 is running 0.54 ahead of his 3.11 xERA. That's a real read on the price of Boston's starter, and it's why this game is -130 and not steeper. But Tolle also draws Fenway, his worse venue split (3.55 home ERA vs 2.50 on the road), against a Cleveland team that's better away than at home. And in a game the run line prices as a one-run coin flip, the ninth inning breaks my way: Cade Smith is a clean, dominant closer, while Boston's Chapman is unconfirmed with a lat issue. I'll take the plus money on the better starter, the hotter team, and the steadier ninth.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -118

It's a crisp late-September night at Kauffman Stadium, the wind blowing in from center, and two short-outing starters on the mound — but only one of these teams is still playing for something. The thing that carries this pick is the structural squeeze on Kansas City's lineup. Anthony Kay's one genuinely elite skill is burying left-handed hitters (.186 AVG / .518 OPS allowed, 161 AB), and the Royals are running five left-handed bats, including their two most important ones in Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone — both of whom do their real damage against right-handed pitching. The heart of KC's order walks straight into the one thing Kay does well. Flip it around and the alignment tilts Chicago's way. Daniel Lynch IV's 3.29 ERA is a letterhead number — as a reliever he ran a 1.96 ERA, but as a starter he's at 5.28 across his eight starts, and that's the pitcher we get tonight. He's most hittable against right-handers (.236 AVG / .712 OPS, 5 HR), and the White Sox run a majority-righty order led by two bats with genuine reverse-platoon production against lefties — Randal Grichuk (.979 OPS vs LHP) and Miguel Vargas (.944 OPS vs LHP), with Vargas the best bat in this game. Lynch's two most-used pitches, the sinker and four-seamer, are also his weakest by expected contact, and Chicago's top of the order hits those pitch types hard. The honest case against me: Kay has been bad — a 7.06 ERA over his last five starts, not one past 4.2 innings — and he's on the road at night, where his splits are ugly (5.04 away, 5.36 at night). Kansas City also gets home field and a fresher bullpen. But neither starter goes deep, and the White Sox relief corps still grades out clearly better on aggregate (3.75 vs 4.89 ERA) with the stronger top arms. The Royals are 3-7 in their last ten and freshly eliminated. I'll take the better team with the cleaner lineup matchup at a modest price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -194

Coors Field in late September, an 11-run total hanging over the board, and one team playing for its October life against another already buried 39 games back. That's the scene, and the price says Arizona -194. The thing that carries this pick is the starting-pitcher fit, and it's not subtle. Kyle Freeland's platoon split is the loudest number on the page: right-handed hitters have hit him .308 with a .942 OPS, and 24 of the 27 home runs he's allowed this season — in 389 at-bats — have come from that side. Arizona's confirmed lineup runs right-handed bats in eight of nine spots; Vargas, Marte and Perdomo all switch to the right against a lefty, and the two pure lefty threats, Corbin Carroll (.313 AVG, .959 OPS vs LHP) and Nolan Arenado (.880 OPS vs LHP), both hit lefties better than righties. Ketel Marte owns a real 48-AB sample against Freeland (.354 AVG, 1.124 OPS). Meanwhile Michael Soroka's .178 AVG / .511 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters sits over the heart of the order. Freeland is also making just his second start back from a neck injury, capped at 50 pitches on Sept. 15 with one strikeout. He's almost certainly handing this to a bullpen that has posted a 5.83 ERA in the tracked window against Arizona's 2.22. The counterargument is real and I'm not ignoring it: this is Coors, the park factor is 1.28, the wind is blowing out to center, and Soroka is a fly-ball pitcher whose profile plays worse in thin air. Colorado actually scores more per game than Arizona. A 9 mph breeze and one swing can flip a game here, which is exactly why the run line at -1.5 only prices Arizona around 54% while the moneyline sits near 66% — the market sees real one-run risk. And the Rockies are loose, with a young lineup playing its last home series. I'm taking the moneyline rather than laying the run line because of that very risk — the edge is in the matchup, not in a margin. Better starter, better platoon fit, dramatically better bullpen, cleaner defense, and a team whose manager's job reportedly rides on a playoff push against a club one loss from a fourth straight 100-loss season. The season series already says the quiet part: Arizona 6-4, outscoring Colorado 52-29, with all four Rockies wins decided by one or two runs. -194 is the fair price for the better team in the better spot.

The thing that carries this pick is the starting-pitcher fit, and it's not subtle. Kyle Freeland's platoon split is the loudest number on the page: right-handed hitters have hit him .308 with a .942 OPS, and 24 of the 27 home runs he's allowed this season — in 389 at-bats — have come from that side. Arizona's confirmed lineup runs right-handed bats in eight of nine spots; Vargas, Marte and Perdomo all switch to the right against a lefty, and the two pure lefty threats, Corbin Carroll (.313 AVG, .959 OPS vs LHP) and Nolan Arenado (.880 OPS vs LHP), both hit lefties better than righties. Ketel Marte owns a real 48-AB sample against Freeland (.354 AVG, 1.124 OPS). Meanwhile Michael Soroka's .178 AVG / .511 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters sits over the heart of the order. Freeland is also making just his second start back from a neck injury, capped at 50 pitches on Sept. 15 with one strikeout. He's almost certainly handing this to a bullpen that has posted a 5.83 ERA in the tracked window against Arizona's 2.22.

The counterargument is real and I'm not ignoring it: this is Coors, the park factor is 1.28, the wind is blowing out to center, and Soroka is a fly-ball pitcher whose profile plays worse in thin air. Colorado actually scores more per game than Arizona. A 9 mph breeze and one swing can flip a game here, which is exactly why the run line at -1.5 only prices Arizona around 54% while the moneyline sits near 66% — the market sees real one-run risk. And the Rockies are loose, with a young lineup playing its last home series.

I'm taking the moneyline rather than laying the run line because of that very risk — the edge is in the matchup, not in a margin. Better starter, better platoon fit, dramatically better bullpen, cleaner defense, and a team whose manager's job reportedly rides on a playoff push against a club one loss from a fourth straight 100-loss season. The season series already says the quiet part: Arizona 6-4, outscoring Colorado 52-29, with all four Rockies wins decided by one or two runs. -194 is the fair price for the better team in the better spot.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· +115

Tuesday night at Wrigley, 61 degrees with a 14 mph wind knifing in from center, and Shota Imanaga gets the ball against Janson Junk to open a three-game set. The wind-in is the one condition that cuts against the home side's power — but it's also the exact condition that covers the softest part of Imanaga's profile, and the pitching matchup underneath it is the load-bearing reason I'm here. Imanaga is the better pitcher by more than the ERA line (3.80 vs 4.50): 164 strikeouts in 168.1 innings versus 78 in 114.0, a genuine bat-missing pitch in his splitter, and — importantly — a profile that fits this Miami lineup. Junk's most-documented weakness is against left-handed bats (.293 AVG/.776 OPS over 280 AB), and the top of Chicago's order runs Crow-Armstrong, Busch and Conforto from the left side plus switch-hitters Happ and Ramírez. Junk also lands in his worse splits tonight — road and night. And he has not completed six innings in any of his last five starts (averaging about four), which hands 4-5 innings to a Miami bullpen that has been the weaker unit (5.40 ERA in tracked relief work) and just lost its top two high-leverage arms for the season in Bender and Fairbanks. Chicago's pen, for all its own wobble, sits at 2.61 in the same tracked window. The strongest case against me is the price and the park. -200 is steep, the run-line market (Marlins +1.5 at -138) treats this as nearly a coin flip, Bregman is out with the facial fractures, and a wind-in night suppresses the Cubs' home power — Crow-Armstrong (.949 OPS, 45 HR) does much of his damage at Wrigley, and fly balls die here tonight. That's real, and it's why I'm not chasing the run line. But the pitching gap stacks at the stuff, platoon and situational levels, and it compounds with the bullpen gap and the exposure gap — a short-outing starter in front of a depleted pen. Chicago is home, holds the tiebreaker in a live Wild Card race, and Miami is eliminated and 31-47 on the road. I'll pay the juice for the side I actually trust.

Imanaga is the better pitcher by more than the ERA line (3.80 vs 4.50): 164 strikeouts in 168.1 innings versus 78 in 114.0, a genuine bat-missing pitch in his splitter, and — importantly — a profile that fits this Miami lineup. Junk's most-documented weakness is against left-handed bats (.293 AVG/.776 OPS over 280 AB), and the top of Chicago's order runs Crow-Armstrong, Busch and Conforto from the left side plus switch-hitters Happ and Ramírez. Junk also lands in his worse splits tonight — road and night. And he has not completed six innings in any of his last five starts (averaging about four), which hands 4-5 innings to a Miami bullpen that has been the weaker unit (5.40 ERA in tracked relief work) and just lost its top two high-leverage arms for the season in Bender and Fairbanks. Chicago's pen, for all its own wobble, sits at 2.61 in the same tracked window.

The strongest case against me is the price and the park. -200 is steep, the run-line market (Marlins +1.5 at -138) treats this as nearly a coin flip, Bregman is out with the facial fractures, and a wind-in night suppresses the Cubs' home power — Crow-Armstrong (.949 OPS, 45 HR) does much of his damage at Wrigley, and fly balls die here tonight. That's real, and it's why I'm not chasing the run line.

But the pitching gap stacks at the stuff, platoon and situational levels, and it compounds with the bullpen gap and the exposure gap — a short-outing starter in front of a depleted pen. Chicago is home, holds the tiebreaker in a live Wild Card race, and Miami is eliminated and 31-47 on the road. I'll pay the juice for the side I actually trust.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· +110

Under the lights at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 of a same-day doubleheader, Max Fried takes the ball for New York against Drew Rasmussen and the AL East-leading Rays — and the market has hung a modest -130 on the home side. I'm going the other way and taking Tampa Bay at plus money. The two starters are close to dead even on recent run prevention — five earned runs apiece over their last five starts — but they get there very differently. Fried has averaged just under five innings a start (24.2 IP over five), while Rasmussen has been a genuine workhorse at roughly 6.2 innings a start (31.0 IP). In a game the market itself expects to be low-scoring (total 6 to 6.5), that innings gap matters: it hands the stronger late-game unit more of the game. Tampa Bay's bullpen has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the tracked sample, with closer Bryan Baker (1.49 ERA, 40 saves) fully rested at two days off. New York's relief corps sits at 4.04 and 1.37 — and its closer, David Bednar, already worked Game 1 of this doubleheader. More innings from the weaker pen, fewer from the stronger one. Tampa is also the hotter and better team — 8-2 in its last ten while allowing just 2.0 runs a game, 95-60 on the season, and it has won 11 straight Rasmussen starts. The Rays lead the season series 6-4, and eight of those ten meetings were decided by one or two runs — exactly the tight, pitching-first shape this game projects to take. The honest case against me is real: New York stacks seven left-handed bats against a righty who has surrendered 10 of his 14 homers to lefties, and Ben Rice (.937 OPS vs RHP) and Luis García Jr. (.884) are the bats that punish that. But Rasmussen still holds lefties to a .215/.587 line overall, a 13 mph wind is blowing in from left, and the market has already paid up for the home side. At +110, I'll take the better bullpen, the longer starter, and the hotter team.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -108

Late September at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento — two eliminated AL West clubs, a six-game Athletics losing streak on one side, and a dead-even pick'em line that tells you the books see these teams cancelling out. My job is to find where they don't, and the separation is on the mound. The single biggest lever here is starting-pitcher length, and it points to Los Angeles. Yusei Kikuchi has averaged roughly 5.3 innings over his last five starts and reached the 6th or 7th twice, while Brady Basso has not completed five innings in weeks — averaging about 2.6 innings and functioning as a deliberate short "starter/opener" audition. That means Oakland has to ask its bullpen for five to six innings tonight against roughly three to four for the Angels. Kikuchi also carries the higher strikeout rate (9.1 K/9 vs 6.3), and while his results match his expected numbers almost exactly, Basso's short outings mean the Athletics must reach deep into arms like Yunior Tur (16.55 season ERA) and Seth Johnson (6.35) to cover the gap. The platoon fit compounds it. Basso is meaningfully worse against right-handers (.324 AVG / .853 OPS over 105 AB) than lefties, and the Angels roll out seven right-handed bats — headlined by Zach Neto, who owns a large, well-sampled edge against lefties (.869 OPS over 166 AB) and converts with runners in scoring position (.917 OPS). Oakland, meanwhile, arrives scoring just 2.6 runs a game over its last five and sitting 3-7 in its last ten with a 6.5 RA/gm; the Angels are 4-6 over that span with a much healthier 4.8 RA/gm. Here's the case against me: Oakland's middle relief has genuinely been the hotter group recently (Medina 0.75 L30 ERA, Roycroft 1.54, Hartlieb 1.64), Basso limits hard contact well (35.7% hard-hit, 5.6% barrel allowed), and Shea Langeliers mashes lefties (.991 OPS) — a real reverse-platoon counter. I take the Angels anyway because the length edge and the righty-heavy platoon alignment both compound inning by inning, and Oakland's bullpen-quality edge gets diluted when it has to cover five-plus innings. At a dead-even -108/-108, I'll take the side with the deeper starter and the better matchup fit.

The single biggest lever here is starting-pitcher length, and it points to Los Angeles. Yusei Kikuchi has averaged roughly 5.3 innings over his last five starts and reached the 6th or 7th twice, while Brady Basso has not completed five innings in weeks — averaging about 2.6 innings and functioning as a deliberate short "starter/opener" audition. That means Oakland has to ask its bullpen for five to six innings tonight against roughly three to four for the Angels. Kikuchi also carries the higher strikeout rate (9.1 K/9 vs 6.3), and while his results match his expected numbers almost exactly, Basso's short outings mean the Athletics must reach deep into arms like Yunior Tur (16.55 season ERA) and Seth Johnson (6.35) to cover the gap.

The platoon fit compounds it. Basso is meaningfully worse against right-handers (.324 AVG / .853 OPS over 105 AB) than lefties, and the Angels roll out seven right-handed bats — headlined by Zach Neto, who owns a large, well-sampled edge against lefties (.869 OPS over 166 AB) and converts with runners in scoring position (.917 OPS). Oakland, meanwhile, arrives scoring just 2.6 runs a game over its last five and sitting 3-7 in its last ten with a 6.5 RA/gm; the Angels are 4-6 over that span with a much healthier 4.8 RA/gm.

Here's the case against me: Oakland's middle relief has genuinely been the hotter group recently (Medina 0.75 L30 ERA, Roycroft 1.54, Hartlieb 1.64), Basso limits hard contact well (35.7% hard-hit, 5.6% barrel allowed), and Shea Langeliers mashes lefties (.991 OPS) — a real reverse-platoon counter. I take the Angels anyway because the length edge and the righty-heavy platoon alignment both compound inning by inning, and Oakland's bullpen-quality edge gets diluted when it has to cover five-plus innings. At a dead-even -108/-108, I'll take the side with the deeper starter and the better matchup fit.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -142

T-Mobile Park on a 65-degree September night, a 3 mph breeze drifting out to right, and Logan Gilbert on the hill for Seattle against Cristian Javier — this is a game the Mariners should control from the first inning. The starting-pitcher gap is the load-bearing reason I'm here. Gilbert is a 178-inning workhorse with a 1.06 WHIP, 194 strikeouts, and — this is what I care about most — underlying numbers that confirm the surface: an xERA of 3.63 against a 3.69 ERA, and an opponent wOBA of .297 against an xwOBA of .294. There's no regression gap hiding a fragile number; he is exactly what he's priced as. Javier is a 61-inning arm with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, and the geometry is ugly: his most-used pitch, the four-seam at 48.4% usage, is also his worst (.364 xwOBA allowed), and Dominic Canzone carries a 139-PA sample of .465 xwOBA and .627 SLG against that exact pitch. When a starter's primary weapon is his weakest and the opponent has a real, large-sample book on it, that's a structural problem, not a one-night fluke. Recent form backs Seattle up. Over their last ten, the Mariners are scoring 5.7 runs a game while Houston has managed just 2.8 — the Astros arrive cold and swept. Seattle's bullpen has been the cleaner unit through the tracked window (4.97 ERA to Houston's 6.04), with Seranthony Domínguez at a 0.63 ERA over his last 14.1 innings. Javier is on a genuine uptick — 2.20 ERA across his last three starts — but every one of those outings was short, capped around 4-to-6 innings, and the magnitude should be discounted on 61 season innings. Houston then has to cover the middle innings with a relief corps that's been hit hard. The case against me is real, and I'll name it: Gilbert has been markedly worse at home (4.41 ERA) than on the road (2.72), Houston stacks seven right-handed bats at his marginally weaker side, Jose Altuve owns him (.351, 2 HR in 37 AB), Yordan Alvarez crushes the four-seam (.501 xwOBA over 176 PA), and Houston's Josh Hader is fully rested and automatic while Seattle's Andrés Muñoz is a knee-question mark. That's a live path for the road dog. But urgency doesn't change who's pitching better over nine innings, and the better arm, the hotter bats, and the deeper recent bullpen all sit on the home side. I'll pay the -142.

The starting-pitcher gap is the load-bearing reason I'm here. Gilbert is a 178-inning workhorse with a 1.06 WHIP, 194 strikeouts, and — this is what I care about most — underlying numbers that confirm the surface: an xERA of 3.63 against a 3.69 ERA, and an opponent wOBA of .297 against an xwOBA of .294. There's no regression gap hiding a fragile number; he is exactly what he's priced as. Javier is a 61-inning arm with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, and the geometry is ugly: his most-used pitch, the four-seam at 48.4% usage, is also his worst (.364 xwOBA allowed), and Dominic Canzone carries a 139-PA sample of .465 xwOBA and .627 SLG against that exact pitch. When a starter's primary weapon is his weakest and the opponent has a real, large-sample book on it, that's a structural problem, not a one-night fluke.

Recent form backs Seattle up. Over their last ten, the Mariners are scoring 5.7 runs a game while Houston has managed just 2.8 — the Astros arrive cold and swept. Seattle's bullpen has been the cleaner unit through the tracked window (4.97 ERA to Houston's 6.04), with Seranthony Domínguez at a 0.63 ERA over his last 14.1 innings. Javier is on a genuine uptick — 2.20 ERA across his last three starts — but every one of those outings was short, capped around 4-to-6 innings, and the magnitude should be discounted on 61 season innings. Houston then has to cover the middle innings with a relief corps that's been hit hard.

The case against me is real, and I'll name it: Gilbert has been markedly worse at home (4.41 ERA) than on the road (2.72), Houston stacks seven right-handed bats at his marginally weaker side, Jose Altuve owns him (.351, 2 HR in 37 AB), Yordan Alvarez crushes the four-seam (.501 xwOBA over 176 PA), and Houston's Josh Hader is fully rested and automatic while Seattle's Andrés Muñoz is a knee-question mark. That's a live path for the road dog. But urgency doesn't change who's pitching better over nine innings, and the better arm, the hotter bats, and the deeper recent bullpen all sit on the home side. I'll pay the -142.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· +110

Dodger Stadium, clear 71-degree night, a 7 mph breeze drifting out to center. The Dodgers — 96-60, 50-28 at home — hand the ball to a reliever who has never started a game this season. The Padres hand it to their ace. That asymmetry is where I'm putting my money. Michael King is the one proven starter in this game: 181.0 innings across 31 starts, 154 strikeouts, eight straight quality starts and a 2.48 ERA since the All-Star break. He reliably gives you six or seven innings on ~96-104 pitches with no shortened outings in his recent log, and his platoon line is essentially neutral (LHB .630 OPS / RHB .679), so LA's lefty stack is a smaller paper edge than it looks. Across the way, Brock Stewart has made zero starts in 2026 and hasn't exceeded one inning in any of his last ten appearances — this is a bullpen game dressed as a start, and the Dodgers just optioned their best bulk arm off the roster. When one side starts a real starter and the other starts a spot arm, that's the single biggest lever on the board, and I'm getting plus money on it. Here's the honest counterargument, because I owe it: King's 3.03 ERA outruns his 4.39 xERA, LA's lineup is disciplined and Freeman and Muncy handle the sinker he leans on most, and the Dodgers are the deeper, fresher bullpen with Scott, Vesia and Phillips all on two-plus days of rest. That gap between King's ERA and his expected mark tells me the market may be paying for a slightly fragile number — but it's a read on the price, not a verdict on tonight. Over a single start, an "overdue to regress" pitcher spins a gem all the time, and King has done exactly that for a month straight. My read: the Padres are the hottest team in baseball (9-1 L10, 13 of 14), they have the only true starter on the field, and they close with Mason Miller (1.21 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 37 saves) behind a bullpen that only needs to bridge three innings. A win plus a Diamondbacks loss clinches their playoff berth tonight — the motivation is maximum. The risk is real: San Diego is a 38-40 road team, and LA is dangerous at home, but at +110 I'm taking the better arm, the hotter team, and the closing edge in a game the market prices near a coin-flip.

Michael King is the one proven starter in this game: 181.0 innings across 31 starts, 154 strikeouts, eight straight quality starts and a 2.48 ERA since the All-Star break. He reliably gives you six or seven innings on ~96-104 pitches with no shortened outings in his recent log, and his platoon line is essentially neutral (LHB .630 OPS / RHB .679), so LA's lefty stack is a smaller paper edge than it looks. Across the way, Brock Stewart has made zero starts in 2026 and hasn't exceeded one inning in any of his last ten appearances — this is a bullpen game dressed as a start, and the Dodgers just optioned their best bulk arm off the roster. When one side starts a real starter and the other starts a spot arm, that's the single biggest lever on the board, and I'm getting plus money on it.

Here's the honest counterargument, because I owe it: King's 3.03 ERA outruns his 4.39 xERA, LA's lineup is disciplined and Freeman and Muncy handle the sinker he leans on most, and the Dodgers are the deeper, fresher bullpen with Scott, Vesia and Phillips all on two-plus days of rest. That gap between King's ERA and his expected mark tells me the market may be paying for a slightly fragile number — but it's a read on the price, not a verdict on tonight. Over a single start, an "overdue to regress" pitcher spins a gem all the time, and King has done exactly that for a month straight.

My read: the Padres are the hottest team in baseball (9-1 L10, 13 of 14), they have the only true starter on the field, and they close with Mason Miller (1.21 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 37 saves) behind a bullpen that only needs to bridge three innings. A win plus a Diamondbacks loss clinches their playoff berth tonight — the motivation is maximum. The risk is real: San Diego is a 38-40 road team, and LA is dangerous at home, but at +110 I'm taking the better arm, the hotter team, and the closing edge in a game the market prices near a coin-flip.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -134

Oracle Park, Tuesday night — two sub-.500 clubs playing out the string with audition lineups, and the market has hung a modest -134 on the road side. That's the side I want, and it's built on the one lever that swings hardest in a single baseball game. That lever is the starting pitcher, and the gap here is wide. Taj Bradley is a 172.1-inning workhorse: 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 199 strikeouts, and his recent form is trending better than the season line — 5.0 to 7.0 innings in each of his last six starts, and his underlying numbers sit right on top of his results (3.81 ERA vs 3.98 xERA), so the market isn't paying for a fragile number. Anthony Molina is a 28-inning, four-start arm (4.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) who has not completed six innings all season and averages about 4.5 over his last five. Bradley hands a 6th-or-7th-inning lead to his bullpen; Molina hands a 5th-inning game to his. That's a two-to-three-inning reliever gap, and it lands on the more tired pen — San Francisco used four arms Monday (two on back-to-back days), Minnesota used two, and the Twins' leverage corps sits on 2-3 days' rest. The platoon structure tilts the same direction. The Twins can run up to six left-or-switch bats (Clemens, Jenkins, Rodriguez plus Lee, Bell, Caratini) at Molina, whose worse split is against lefties (.258/.689). Bradley, notably, is not a platoon liability — he's actually tougher on same-handed hitters (.234/.660 vs RHB, .660 OPS both sides) — so the Giants' five lefty bats don't get a soft matchup, they just amplify his HR-to-lefty tendency inside a park (factor 0.88) built to knock down that exact fly ball. The honest counterargument: Bradley's four-seamer is a genuine target and 17 of his 23 home runs allowed came to lefties; the Giants start five of them; there's a 14 mph wind out to center; and Minnesota's closer has been shaky. But Oracle suppresses, 61°F air is denser, the Giants' bats are thin, young, and scoring 3.6 runs per game over their last five — and Molina's short outings mean the tired pen absorbs the innings either way. I'll trust the deeper starter and fresher bullpen at a fair price.

That lever is the starting pitcher, and the gap here is wide. Taj Bradley is a 172.1-inning workhorse: 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 199 strikeouts, and his recent form is trending better than the season line — 5.0 to 7.0 innings in each of his last six starts, and his underlying numbers sit right on top of his results (3.81 ERA vs 3.98 xERA), so the market isn't paying for a fragile number. Anthony Molina is a 28-inning, four-start arm (4.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) who has not completed six innings all season and averages about 4.5 over his last five. Bradley hands a 6th-or-7th-inning lead to his bullpen; Molina hands a 5th-inning game to his. That's a two-to-three-inning reliever gap, and it lands on the more tired pen — San Francisco used four arms Monday (two on back-to-back days), Minnesota used two, and the Twins' leverage corps sits on 2-3 days' rest.

The platoon structure tilts the same direction. The Twins can run up to six left-or-switch bats (Clemens, Jenkins, Rodriguez plus Lee, Bell, Caratini) at Molina, whose worse split is against lefties (.258/.689). Bradley, notably, is not a platoon liability — he's actually tougher on same-handed hitters (.234/.660 vs RHB, .660 OPS both sides) — so the Giants' five lefty bats don't get a soft matchup, they just amplify his HR-to-lefty tendency inside a park (factor 0.88) built to knock down that exact fly ball.

The honest counterargument: Bradley's four-seamer is a genuine target and 17 of his 23 home runs allowed came to lefties; the Giants start five of them; there's a 14 mph wind out to center; and Minnesota's closer has been shaky. But Oracle suppresses, 61°F air is denser, the Giants' bats are thin, young, and scoring 3.6 runs per game over their last five — and Molina's short outings mean the tired pen absorbs the innings either way. I'll trust the deeper starter and fresher bullpen at a fair price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· +110

Series opener under a closed roof in Arlington, two left-handers with nearly identical ERAs, and a market that wants you to believe the division race settles it. It doesn't. This game hinges on which lefty's recent trouble is the fixable kind, and that question has a clear answer. Over his last five starts MacKenzie Gore has walked 17 and struck out 11 — an inverted ratio over five outings is not bad luck, it's a command problem. His most recent start he threw 36 of 69 pitches for strikes, with the manager, pitching coach and head trainer all walking to the mound together, and he's failed to finish five innings in four of his last five. Sean Manaea's ERA over the same stretch looks just as ugly, but underneath it he has 19 strikeouts against 4 walks in 27.2 innings with his strike rate climbing in three straight outings. One of these guys knows where the ball is going. The best argument against me is real and I'm not dodging it: Manaea gets hurt by right-handed bats — .275 and an .856 OPS with 18 home runs in 371 at-bats — and Texas runs seven righties tonight. That's the honest counter. Here's why I'm still on New York. Hitting home runs requires squaring the ball up, and over the last three games the Rangers have averaged 87.8 mph off the bat with a 36.8% hard-hit rate and 5.9% barrels, while the Mets sit at 90.5 mph, 47.5% and 8.8% with a lower whiff and chase rate. The 3-7 team has been hitting the ball better than the 6-4 team. Manaea's damage is also time-bounded — 3.51 ERA through five innings, 7.68 from the sixth on — and an eliminated club has no reason on earth to push him past the wobble. Texas has the opposite pressure and a thinner margin behind it, having lost Cal Quantrill for the season two days ago with starters covering relief innings all week. Add Juan Soto, who carries a 1.005 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position against a Texas middle where Wyatt Langford (.357) and Josh Jung (.568) disappear in that same spot, plus today's loss of Joc Pederson's .816 OPS from the DH slot. At +110 — with one book already down to +100 — I'll take the dog.

The best argument against me is real and I'm not dodging it: Manaea gets hurt by right-handed bats — .275 and an .856 OPS with 18 home runs in 371 at-bats — and Texas runs seven righties tonight. That's the honest counter. Here's why I'm still on New York. Hitting home runs requires squaring the ball up, and over the last three games the Rangers have averaged 87.8 mph off the bat with a 36.8% hard-hit rate and 5.9% barrels, while the Mets sit at 90.5 mph, 47.5% and 8.8% with a lower whiff and chase rate. The 3-7 team has been hitting the ball better than the 6-4 team. Manaea's damage is also time-bounded — 3.51 ERA through five innings, 7.68 from the sixth on — and an eliminated club has no reason on earth to push him past the wobble.

Texas has the opposite pressure and a thinner margin behind it, having lost Cal Quantrill for the season two days ago with starters covering relief innings all week. Add Juan Soto, who carries a 1.005 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position against a Texas middle where Wyatt Langford (.357) and Josh Jung (.568) disappear in that same spot, plus today's loss of Joc Pederson's .816 OPS from the DH slot. At +110 — with one book already down to +100 — I'll take the dog.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

NICK MARTINEZPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -135

Martinez has cleared 4.5 hits in six of his last eight starts: 5, 2, 5, 7, 1, 9, 8, 6. His season line is 5.5 hits allowed per start across 29 turns, and this is a contact profile rather than a swing and miss one. His sinker draws a whiff on 10.3 percent of swings and his cutter on 12.2 percent, so the Yankees will put the ball in play, and they bring four left-handed bats and a .713 OPS against right-handed pitching into a park with a 314 foot porch in right. He has served up 21 home runs in 29 starts and four in his last five, and the Rays have been trimming his innings in September, with his most recent start ending after five, which caps how deep he can go to keep the hit count down. The strongest case against me: Martinez has handled this Yankees lineup twice this year at a 1.69 ERA with the team winning both, New York is batting .229 against right-handers on the season, and he takes the ball on five days rest after a 2.94 ERA season. At minus 135 I need five or more hits in roughly 57 percent of his starts, and his recent rate of 75 percent and his season rate both sit above that bar.

GARY'S PICK

CARLOS RODONPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -165

Rodon has walked 38 batters in 76.1 innings, 2.5 per start, and his last eight starts read 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, 2. That is over this number in six of eight. He is averaging 15.3 outs per start, so Tampa gets a third look at him, and the Rays work a walk in about nine percent of their plate appearances, which is roughly two free passes across a 23 to 25 batter game. His command was the flagged issue in his first start back from the elbow problem, and the early count trouble was visible on the tape. The contrary evidence is the price and the split. Minus 165 is steep when I need two walks, he handed out one or none in two of his last eight, and the Rays carry a .688 OPS against left-handed pitching, their weaker side of the platoon. I still take it because the walk rate is baked into the season line and the short, traffic heavy outing points to multiple passes in a game where he has to go through a patient order more than once.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -175

One hit, one run, or one RBI at -175, which asks for about a 64 percent clip. Bauers is hitting fifth and playing first base, roughly four plate appearances. He is the most complete bat offered tonight. The season line is .269/.397/.497 with 26 homers, 90 runs and 83 RBI across 138 games, and against right-handed pitching specifically he sits at .272 with an .889 OPS and 18 of those homers in 324 at-bats. Zack Wheeler is a right-hander. The lineup slot matters as much as the bat: Bauers hits behind Chourio, Turang and Contreras in an offense scoring 5.1 runs a game, and this market pays three different ways. He can single, he can walk and come around, or he can drive in a runner without a hit. That .397 on-base mark is the engine for the middle door, and 90 runs in 138 games says he uses it. He is swinging well right now too, .276 with three homers and a 1.117 OPS over the last fifteen days, and six of his last eight games have produced at least one of these three outcomes. The case against is the man holding the ball. Wheeler has given up two earned runs across 20 innings in his last three starts with 23 strikeouts against five walks, he is rested five days, and left-handed hitters are at .220 with a .688 OPS in 314 at-bats against him. That 1.06 WHIP cuts both ways for this ticket: fewer men on base ahead of Bauers means fewer RBI chances, and fewer of his own free passes means fewer run-scoring paths. Seven blanks sit in his last fifteen logged games, and two of those came in games he did not start. I am paying the freight because there are three ways to win this ticket and one way to lose it, and the man with a .397 on-base percentage is the right profile to buy in that format.

GARY'S PICK

YOHANDY MORALESHITS OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -139

A hit from Yohandy Morales at -139, and the lineup card is doing most of the work. His season is 36 at-bats deep, and the 2.8 plate appearances per game attached to his name is a bench figure: one trip on September 19, one on September 21, the pinch-hit homer off Drew Sommers. Tonight he is the confirmed designated hitter batting seventh, which in a road game plays for roughly four trips with no defensive replacement available to take one away. That is the swing this ticket needs, and it is the piece his game log understates. The matchup supports the right-handed side of it. Drew Anderson's platoon split this season runs toward righties: .238 with a .778 OPS and seven home runs in 172 at-bats against right-handed bats, against .230 and a .658 OPS to lefties. Morales has produced a hit in eight of his last 13 games, and those 36 at-bats hold three home runs and four doubles, so the contact he does make travels. Everything around it is the problem. Thirty-six at-bats with 11 strikeouts and zero walks leaves exactly one route to this ticket, with a strikeout rate above 30 percent standing in front of it. Washington collected five hits in this park last night. Anderson allows 3.4 hits per start, Comerica suppresses the ball, and if Detroit hands a five-inning lead to a rested Kenley Jansen and Tyler Kinley, the whole lineup may be scrapping for six knocks, with the seven hole first in line to go quiet. I took this over the same player's hits plus runs plus RBI at -175 for one reason: with no walks in his book, the extra paths on that ticket are a sacrifice fly, an RBI groundout, or reaching on a mistake and coming around, and 36 cents is too much to pay for them.

GARY'S PICK

PAYTON TOLLEPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -160

Over 14.5 outs at -160 asks for five full innings from Tolle. He has cleared that in all eight of his last starts, an outs line that reads 18, 18, 17, 16, 15, 24, 18, 18, and he averages 17.2 outs across 25 starts this season. The pitch counts behind those starts are what convince me: 96, 91, 96, 97, 98, 91, 84, 88. Boston runs him into the mid-90s pitch range essentially every time out, with no restricted-workload start on the board since spring. Across the whole season he has failed to finish five innings four times in 25 tries, a 16 percent miss rate against a price that needs 61.5 percent to break even. He also arrives on eight days of rest, the longest break he has had in months. The matchup fits the leash. Cleveland's card tonight is three left-handed bats, three right-handed and three switch, so the switch-hitters turn around and Tolle spends most of the night against right-handed hitters, his stronger side at .207 with a .618 OPS in 377 at-bats. His last three starts: 17.2 innings, 5 earned runs, 25 strikeouts, 3 walks, and a 1.07 WHIP on the season keeps his innings cheap. The case against him is Fenway and the home run. He carries a 3.55 ERA in 13 home starts against 2.50 in 12 road starts, and he has allowed 15 home runs in 25 starts, while Cleveland has scored 5.6 runs per game across its last ten. One crooked number ends a start early. He is also a rookie 143 innings into a career high with his club already holding a postseason spot, which makes a quick hook on a rough night more plausible than it would be in August. The five-inning bar is low enough that it takes a genuine blowup, and he has had exactly one of those since the All-Star break.

GARY'S PICK

NATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -162

Church bats eighth and plays center field, and this ticket is the widest of the three ways to win at -162: one hit, one run scored, or one run driven in clears it. His role is settled, 126 games and 416 at-bats with 3.6 plate appearances a night, so there is no guessing about whether he is in there for four trips. The season rate is 1.7 hits plus runs plus RBI per game, and the number has come in for him in 12 of his last 15. What I like tonight is the shape of his bat and the recent read on this starter. Church is 15 for 46 over the last 15 days and hitting .328 in September across 64 at-bats, a full turnaround from a July when he hit .145 across 76 at-bats. His strikeout rate sits around 18 percent, so he puts the bat on the ball and gives himself live trips. St. Louis also saw Jared Jones on August 28 and put seven hits on him across 4.2 innings with a home run. Jones has thrown 90.2 innings over 19 starts, so Church's later trips likely come against the Pittsburgh pen rather than against Jones a third time. The case against is Jones right now. He carries a 1.50 ERA over 18 September innings with 26 strikeouts and four walks in his last three starts, he throws a slider 35 percent of the time that misses bats 41.5 percent of the time, and he has held left-handed hitters to .216 across 199 at-bats. The lineup slot is the other problem. Church hits eighth in front of Masyn Winn and his .629 OPS, behind a bottom third that has gone cold, which thins the run and RBI paths and leaves most of this riding on his own knock. Wind at 11 miles an hour in from center at 61 degrees trims the extra-base version too. Break-even at this price is just under 62 percent, and a regular with his contact profile and his current form gets there. Give me the over.

GARY'S PICK

RONNY SIMONHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -160

Simon hits seventh in right field and the price is -160 that he collects one hit. The case starts with who is throwing. Andre Pallante is a 6.2 strikeout per nine pitcher whose four-seam draws whiffs on 14.9 percent of swings and whose sinker draws 10.4 percent, with a 1.73 ground out to air out ratio on the season. He gets outs by letting hitters put the ball in play, which is the friendliest arm profile there is for a one-hit line: more balls in play means more chances for one to land. Simon has struck out seven times in 48 at-bats, so he is going to make contact and take his chances. He switch hits, which puts him on the left side tonight, and Pallante has allowed .255 with a .703 OPS to left-handed bats over 321 at-bats against .244 and .639 to righties. Form backs it. Simon is 6 for 16 over the last seven days with a home run, he has hit safely in 11 of the 15 games the market logs, and this slot projects for 3.5 plate appearances with Pittsburgh at home and favored. The argument against is the sample, and it is a real one. Everything I just said about Simon rests on 48 at-bats across 15 games, and a .313 average on that many trips is one warm week away from being a .260 average. Pallante has been a different pitcher away from Busch Stadium, a 2.76 ERA over 65.1 road innings with a 4.9 percent barrel rate, and his ground ball tilt feeds a lot of routine outs to the middle infield. He also gave Pittsburgh six innings of one-run ball at this park in April. I need roughly 62 percent at this price, and the low-whiff arm plus the left-side platoon edge gets me past it. One hit.

GARY'S PICK

GEORGE LOMBARD JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -152

George Lombard Jr. bats seventh for the Yankees against Drew Rasmussen, and I want the over on his hits plus runs plus RBIs at 0.5, priced -152. He has landed on the good side of this number in 10 of his last 15 games, and his season line of 1.8 combined per game across 38 games says he clears a single event more often than not, even out of the bottom third of the order. The recent bat is the pull. Over the last seven days he is 7 for 22 with two home runs (.318 average, .939 OPS), and over 15 days he is 10 for 43 with three homers. In this market his game log reads 1, 5, 0, 6, 3, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, so when he connects the runs and RBIs arrive in bunches, which is what lifts a combined line. He sees about 3.9 plate appearances a game, and Rasmussen has never faced him, so there is no head-to-head history working against him. The honest pushback: he is a rookie with a .290 on-base and a modest .386 slugging, and five of those last 15 games were clean zeroes, so the floor is real. Hitting seventh also caps his chances. At -152 the market wants roughly 60 percent, and the 10 of 15 clip plus the 1.8 per game track record sits above that.

GARY'S PICK

JAZZ CHISHOLM JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -155

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back in the lineup tonight and hits sixth for the Yankees, and I am taking the over on his hits plus runs plus RBIs at 0.5, priced -155. He has cleared this number in 12 of his last 15 games, and he sits at 1.7 combined per game across 133 games on the season. He is a left-handed bat in this order, and his split against right-handers (.237 average, .742 OPS) is the better half of his season line, which matters against a right-handed starter. Before the wrist problem he was swinging well in September, .333 with a .900 OPS over 18 at-bats, and in this market his game log reads 2, 1, 0, 1, 6, 1, 5, 2, 0, 1, 5, 2, 6, 2, 0. He also runs, with 40 steals on the season, so a single can become a run without much help behind him. The strongest case against: this is his first game back from a right wrist sprain, so those last-15 numbers come from before the stint and I am buying a stale sample. A wrist is the joint that governs the swing, and he is 2 for 12 in his career against Rasmussen. At -155 the price is steep for a player shaking off rust, and that is the risk I am accepting.

GARY'S PICK

BRADY BASSOK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -136

Brady Basso is being run as a short starter, and this market is stacked against a pitcher who does not stay in long enough to miss many bats. He has not completed five innings in any of his six 2026 starts, and his pitch counts across that stretch read 22, 32, 36, 40, 52, 68. The A's are asking him for roughly two to three innings before the pen takes over. Across those six starts he has averaged 1.7 strikeouts and cleared this 3.5 line once, in the Toronto outing on September 9 that also stands as his season high for length at four innings. His season rate is 6.3 strikeouts per nine over 40 innings, and the per pitch whiff numbers are ordinary, the four-seam fastball at 16.4 percent and the sinker at 8.3 percent. A starter who faces about ten or eleven hitters and misses that few bats has to find one swing and miss run to reach four punchouts. The strongest case against me is the opponent. The Angels carry a 26 percent strikeout rate across tonight's nine and fanned nine times against Gavin Williams on Sunday, so a contact pitcher can still pile up punchouts when a lineup chases. Basso's curveball is his one true bat misser at 38.1 percent whiff with 57.1 percent chase. The line itself is the cushion. At 3.5 with a two to three inning leash he needs to roughly double his season per start rate, and he has done that once in six tries.

GARY'S PICK

DENZER GUZMANRBI UNDER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -165

Denzer Guzman's run production has been thin all season, and an RBI needs a specific event that his bat has not delivered often. He is hitting .225 with a .340 slugging percentage over 262 at bats, 7 home runs and 29 RBI across 74 games, which works out to 0.4 RBI per game. His last fifteen games show four with at least one RBI and eleven without, so the under has cashed 11 of 15. He is a right-handed bat against a left-handed starter, and while Basso's season numbers are the softer side against righties (.324 average allowed), Guzman's own work against left-handers this year is a .188 average in 85 at bats, so the handedness matchup does not hand him the edge. The argument against me is the lineup slot. He bats fourth, which is the spot that sees the most traffic in front of it, and Neto, Trout and Grissom can put runners on, so one clean swing produces the RBI and beats me. The Oakland bullpen walks people, which creates extra chances. The price decides it. At -165 I need him to come up empty about 62 percent of the time, and his season rate and his last fifteen games both point past 70 percent.

GARY'S PICK

JR RITCHIEPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -166

JR Ritchie has the shakiest control of any starter on this board, and the price has not caught up to how often it shows. He has walked two or more in seven of his last eight starts, and the season line reads 38 walks in 62.2 innings, above five per nine. The matchup adds to it. Tonight's Reds nine walks in roughly eleven percent of its plate appearances, and Cincinnati draws 3.48 walks a game as a club, so a rookie who falls behind will pay. Ritchie has also failed to finish five innings in any of his last five starts, which keeps the outing short while the counts run long. The clearest argument against the card is the price. At -166 this is the most expensive number available, and the same Cincinnati lineup strikes out in twenty-six percent of its plate appearances, so plenty of deep counts end in swings and misses rather than ball four. A clean, efficient night beats me. Two walks is still a low bar for a pitcher who averages about three per start, and the opponent's patience works in the bet's favor.

GARY'S PICK

JR RITCHIEPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -150

Ritchie has allowed two or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and the profile behind that record is rough. He carries a 5.03 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and nine home runs across nine starts, about 1.3 per nine innings. The Reds supply real power here in Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting .394 with a 1.262 OPS in September, and in Sal Stewart, who has 32 home runs, and Cincinnati hits 1.31 home runs a game as a team. A starter who gives up that much loud contact and walks as many as Ritchie does will usually find two earned runs inside five innings. The counter is real. Cincinnati has been weak against right-handed pitching all season (.224 average, .688 OPS) and has scored just 3.1 runs a game over its last ten, so this lineup may not punish him. Ritchie also has not worked beyond five innings in any recent start, which caps how many runs he can surrender, and -150 is a genuine price for a low bar. I take the over because the contact he allows has been hard all year and the hottest bat on the Cincinnati side sits at the top of the order.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE STOWERSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -152

The board hands me Kyle Stowers over 0.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -152, and the case starts with volume. He bats third for Miami and averages 4.2 plate appearances a night, the largest share of anyone on my board, and his season rate is 1.8 combined hits, runs and RBIs per game. He has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15, and the last three games on the market read 1, 4 and 1, so the form is warm. What I like about this market is that it does not require a hit. Stowers walks, and his recent logs show two separate games with a pair of free passes, so a walk that becomes a run pays the ticket the same as a single. He also finished August hitting .294, which tells me the bat is not buried. The honest counter is the platoon. Stowers is left-handed and so is Imanaga, and Stowers' own line against lefties this year is .206 with a .645 OPS across 97 at-bats. Imanaga's splitter is a genuine swing-and-miss pitch, and Stowers strikes out in better than a third of his at-bats, so a quiet 0 for 4 is on the table. At -152 I am paying for a little better than 60 percent, and the plate-appearance edge against the handedness risk is why I still take it.

GARY'S PICK

HERIBERTO HERNANDEZH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -171

Heriberto Hernandez is on the board over 0.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -171, and the part I trust is the platoon. He is a right-handed bat who does his damage against left-handed pitching: .235 average, .837 OPS, 10 of his 24 home runs in 136 at-bats versus lefties. Imanaga throws left-handed. Hernandez leads off, so he is first in line at roughly 3.9 plate appearances, and his season rate is 1.7 combined hits, runs and RBIs per game. He has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15. The price is the tax. -171 implies about 63 percent, and Hernandez is a .228 hitter overall who has 11 hits in his last 51 at-bats. He is 0 for 3 in his career against Imanaga, and the last three games on this market are 6, 0, 0. A leadoff man who goes 0 for 4 with nobody cashing him in loses this bet, and that is a live outcome against a pitcher who has been sharp all September. I am paying up because the handedness fits him better than any other bat in this order, the plate appearances are there, and the path to a run is real with Lopez and Stowers behind him.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN GILBERTPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -175

Logan Gilbert has made 30 starts over 178 innings, and the earned-runs line sits at 1.5 with the over priced at -175. His season rate is 2.4 earned runs per start, and the recent ledger is louder than that: his last eight starts read 2, 3, 7, 3, 2, 3, 0, 2, so the over has cleared in seven of the eight. He works on six days of rest, and the split that carries this bet is home versus road, a 4.41 ERA across 102 innings at T-Mobile against 2.72 across 76 innings away from it. September has been his roughest month, a 6.11 ERA in 17.2 innings. Houston has a real book on him. Jose Altuve is 15 for 38 with two home runs against him, Yordan Alvarez is 7 for 28 with one, and Yainer Diaz is 4 for 19 with two. Alvarez arrives hot, .400 with two homers over the last seven days to go with a 1.027 season OPS, and the Astros carry a .727 OPS against right-handed pitching with 161 home runs on the year. The case against is real. T-Mobile is a pitcher-friendly yard with marine air. The Astros have scored only 2.8 runs a game over their last ten and 3.2 a game across September. Gilbert struck out 194 men in those 178 innings, and he has faced this Houston club once in 2026, holding it to one earned run over seven innings on April 12. A 30-start arm with a 1.06 WHIP is a hard man to knock out early. I am still paying -175. The price needs about 64 percent, and seven of his last eight starts have cleared 1.5, with a home ERA almost two runs worse than his road mark sitting underneath it.

GARY'S PICK

CRISTIAN JAVIERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· -168

Cristian Javier brings a 5.31 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP across 61 innings in 11 starts, and the road profile is why I am here. His season rate is 2.9 earned runs per start, the over has cleared in six of his last eight (2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3), and away from home he has allowed a 7.23 ERA over 18.2 innings in five road starts, with his team going 1-4 in them. He draws a Mariners lineup scoring 5.7 runs a game over its last ten and 5.3 a game in September. Randy Arozarena is the engine of that group, .319 with a 1.009 OPS this month and .348 with a 1.100 OPS over the last 15 days. Cal Raleigh has taken him deep before, 3 for 6 in the career sample, and Josh Naylor is 2 for 8. The other side of it: Javier's last three starts are his best stretch of the year, a 2.20 ERA over 16.1 innings with 15 strikeouts and only four earned runs, and his September is down at 2.20. T-Mobile is a pitcher-friendly park with marine air, and Javier owns a 0.79 first-inning ERA, so he tends to open clean. Seattle's .237 average and .712 OPS against right-handers is better than its work against lefties, which cuts my way rather than against me. Three starts do not overturn a season of road damage, and the Mariners are swinging it as well as anyone in the league right now. The price asks for about 63 percent, and his last eight starts have cleared the line 75 percent of the time. That is the side I want.

GARY'S PICK

TAJ BRADLEYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -128

Bradley's walk line is 1.5, over at -128, the softest price on this board. His control is the engine: 73 walks in 172.1 innings, a 3.8 per nine rate, and 2.4 walks per start over 30 starts. His last eight starts read 1, 4, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 2, which is two or more walks in six of the eight, and that tendency follows him on the road, where the 4.47 ERA is built on traffic. This profile is a power arm who lives on the edge of the zone, and the walk total is the most reproducible part of his game. The counter is the opponent's discipline. The Giants' nine walk in only 7 percent of their plate appearances this season, below the league norm, and the team draws 2.78 walks per game, a modest figure. Bradley's last two outings finished at one and two walks, so the floor is right there, and with the Giants striking out 8.18 times per game there is a version where he stays ahead all night and never reaches two. Two of his last eight starts were short, 12 and 15 outs, which trims the innings he has to pile up free passes.

GARY'S PICK

TAJ BRADLEYPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -148

Taj Bradley's earned-runs line is 1.5, over at -148. The anchor is 2.4 earned runs per start across his 30 starts, and the recent run of 3, 0, 4, 1, 4, 1, 5, 3 shows two or more in five of his last eight. He carries a 7.20 first-inning ERA over 30 innings, so he has a habit of surrendering a run before he settles in, and his road ERA is 4.47 over 17 starts with his last three road turns at 5.30. San Francisco scored five on Monday, the wind is blowing out to center at 14 mph, and Oracle's 309-foot right-field porch plays to the five left-handed bats in the Giants order, a group that has accounted for most of the 23 homers he has allowed. The strongest case against is the venue and the opponent. Oracle is a pitcher's park, deep gaps and heavy marine air that suppress the fly ball, and 61-degree air is denser still. The Giants are a thin, young, cold lineup scoring 3.6 runs per game over their last five, and Bradley is pitching well, a 3.50 ERA over his last three with 5.0 to 7.0 innings in each of his last six starts. At -148 the market wants close to 60 percent, and a two-earned-run threshold carries real juice.

GARY'S PICK

DANIEL LYNCH IVK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -132

The line is 3.5 strikeouts and the price is -132 on the under. Daniel Lynch IV has made eight starts since moving into the rotation on August 7, and his strikeout column reads 3, 3, 0, 3, 2, 1, 3, 2. He has not reached four in any of them, and he averages 2.1 per start in that role. The reason is the shape of his arsenal. Lynch works off a sinker he throws 31.9 percent of the time with a 10.7 percent whiff rate, a pitch built to produce ground balls, and neither his four-seam (15.1 percent whiff) nor his knuckle curve (16.1 percent) misses bats either. The slider is his one genuine swing-and-miss offering at 30.9 percent, and he uses it under 20 percent of the time. His whiff rate by start across the last five outings: 4, 16, 6, 15, 19 percent. Length compounds it. Five innings is his ceiling this season, he has not thrown more than 81 pitches in any start, and Kansas City has lifted him at exactly five in each of his last three with a manager who has said openly he prefers handing it to a fresh pen. Four strikeouts inside roughly 20 batters faced asks for his best swing-and-miss night of the year. The case against: Chicago is the wrong lineup for this bet. The White Sox strike out 9.24 times a game, and tonight's nine have struck out in 27 of every 100 plate appearances this season, with Munetaka Murakami (188 K in 430 AB) and Colson Montgomery (216 K in 546 AB) driving that. Give Lynch an efficient, clean five innings against a swing-and-miss order and four is live. Eight starts without once getting there, against an arsenal that does not generate whiffs, is the side I want at this number.

GARY'S PICK

MACKENZIE GOREPITCHER OUTS UNDER 13.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -105

Thirteen and a half outs is four and two thirds innings, and the under is the cheaper side of this market at -105. Gore has not gotten there in three straight starts: 12 outs, 12 outs, 9 outs, on pitch counts of 69, 76 and 68. He has cleared it once in his last five. The number the market is anchored to is his season average of 15.5 outs across 32 starts, and his September has stopped resembling that season. What is driving the short outings is command. Nine walks against three strikeouts across those last three starts, 17 against 11 across five. Walks are the fastest route to a 70-pitch fourth inning. His last time out he threw 36 of 69 pitches for strikes, the manager, pitching coach and head trainer walked to the mound together in the second, and he finished with his velocity down across the board. He is tied for the American League lead in starts, which is the other half of this: Texas has leaned on him all year and is now managing recurring back spasms in the final week. The club says it has a plan. The last three versions of that plan came out to 69, 76 and 68 pitches. The situation compounds it. Texas is one game up in the West with six to play, Skip Schumaker has said out loud that he is counting outs, and this month he pulled deGrom at 4.1 innings, Rocker at 4.1 and Quantrill at 1.1. Nobody in that bullpen threw yesterday, and Eovaldi, Trevor Williams, Montgomery and Bradford are all capable of multiple innings tonight, so there is no reason to stretch a pitcher who is being monitored. The honest case against me: the Mets are 18-26 against left-handed starters and hit .231 with a .682 OPS versus lefties, and Gore at home has averaged nearly five and a half innings across 15 starts with a 3.53 ERA. A passive lineup can hand him a quick fifth inning. At this price I will take the version of Gore who has shown up for three weeks.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON BENGETOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· -175

Total bases over 0.5 at -175 asks for one hit in what should be four trips. Benge hits fifth, averages 4.2 plate appearances a game and has played 149 of the team's 156 games, so the volume is settled. He is batting .275 with a .419 slugging percentage on the season, and he carries no platoon hole: .269 with a .728 OPS in 156 at-bats against left-handers, .278 and .769 against right-handers. He has recorded a base in each of his last four games and 10 of his last 15, and he is hitting .333 with two home runs over the past week. MacKenzie Gore has not been the left-hander who erases left-handed bats this year. He has allowed a .259 average and a .734 OPS in 158 at-bats from that side, a shade worse than the .238 and .719 he has allowed to righties, and only two of the 19 home runs he has given up have come off lefty bats. The shape of the damage against him from this side is singles and doubles, which is precisely what this line settles on. Benge has no career at-bats against him, so there is no history pulling either direction. The price is the problem and I will say so plainly. At -175 this needs to land better than 63 percent of the time, and he has been blanked in five of his last 15 games. Texas plays the cleaner defense by a wide margin, 66 errors and a .988 fielding percentage against 91 and .983 for New York, and that turns a couple of his soft ground balls into outs. If Gore leaves early the Rangers can run three left-handers at him late, led by Jacob Latz, who has a 2.08 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP over 69.1 innings and has not pitched in three days. I still want the at-bats.

GARY'S PICK

GERALDO PERDOMOH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -138

The line is 2.5 hits plus runs plus RBI and I want the under at -138, a price that asks for 58 percent. Perdomo has cleared three combined in four of his last fifteen games. His season rate across 151 games is 1.7. The matchup reason is his own platoon line, and it cuts against the way this lineup reads tonight. Arizona stacks right-handed bats against Kyle Freeland and most of them have earned the spot. Perdomo is the exception: .264 with a .700 OPS versus left-handers in 159 at-bats this season with exactly one home run, against .253 and .743 versus right-handers. He is the one bat in the top five whose OPS goes down when a lefty starts. His profile is also the wrong shape for this specific market. Ninety walks and a .367 slugging mark in 539 at-bats means a large share of his plate appearances produce a free pass that counts for nothing here, and nine home runs in a full season means he almost never banks two or three units on one swing. Reaching three requires stringing separate events together: two hits and a run, or a hit and a run and an RBI. At 4.3 plate appearances a game, that is a genuine ask. The contrary case is real. Perdomo is hot, 13-for-42 over fifteen days and 7-for-18 over seven, and his last game printed a 5 on this market with two hits, a run and two RBI. He bats fourth behind Gabriel Moreno, who is 8-for-18 with two homers in the last week, so traffic will be in front of him. This is Coors with the wind out to center, Freeland gave up eight hits in four innings his last time out, and the Colorado bullpen behind him carries a 5.21 ERA across 488 innings. Twenty steals means he can manufacture a run without a second hit. I'll take the price. Four overs in fifteen tries against a market demanding 58 percent is the gap that pays, and the platoon evidence points at the under.

GARY'S PICK

KETEL MARTEHITS UNDER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -135

Under 1.5 hits at -135, a number that needs 57 percent to break even. Marte has gone over it three times in his last fifteen games. Nine of those fifteen landed on exactly one hit and three on zero, and there is no three-hit game anywhere in the log. His season rate is precisely 1.0 hits per game across 135 games. I published the Arizona moneyline partly on this lineup's fit against Kyle Freeland, and Marte's record is part of that case. He is 17-for-51 against Freeland in his career with three home runs, and he carries a .301 average and .925 OPS against left-handers in 136 at-bats this season. Both things hold at once. A hitter running .300 against a given hand who gets four at-bats collects two or more hits about a third of the time. The bar on this ticket is the second hit, and second hits are hard for a bat that has produced one per game all year. Current form sharpens it. Marte is 12-for-51 over the last fifteen days with zero home runs, 5-for-21 over the last seven, and hitting .242 with one homer in 66 September at-bats. His distribution sits tight and it sits right underneath this number. The strongest argument against me is the same one I made on the game side. Freeland is making his second start back from a neck issue, pulled at 50 pitches on September 15 after surrendering eight hits in four innings with one strikeout. This is Coors at 76 degrees with a 9 mph breeze to center, Marte gets 4.4 trips hitting second, and the back half of them come against a Colorado pen carrying a 5.21 ERA. If any Arizona bat gets three cracks at a soft matchup tonight, it is him. I'm still laying -135. One hit clears this ticket, and one hit is exactly what he has delivered in nine of his last fifteen.

Research

1000

FANTASY USAGEat NO
Brock Bowers
WATCH: Bowers has zero recorded 2026 games — verify he's active before locking him in Why now: The 2026 regular-season game log for Bowers returns no games at all (sample_games: 0), yet the Week 3 projection still forecasts 6.0 receptions and 59.4 receiving yards against New Orleans, an estimate not grounded in any observed 2026 play. He is also listed at 99.7% rostered with a 31.9% started rate, so most managers who hold him are likely treating him as a default lineup lock despite the missing log. Who it fits: Relevant to nearly every manager rostering Bowers, since 99.7% ownership makes him a default lineup lock in most leagues; this is about confirming he is actually active, not about his talent level. The risk: The missing games could reflect a data gap rather than an actual absence, so this is a prompt to verify, not proof he has missed time. Watch next: Look for an official 2026 game log entry or injury report update on Bowers before his Week 3 game against New Orleans. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 27, 04:25 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
Nico Collins
WATCH: Collins has only one game logged this season despite elite Week 1 volume Why now: Collins turned 10 targets into 7 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in his only recorded 2026 game, dated 2026-09-13, and the current sample stands at just 1 of a requested 5 games with 9 days since that game. The Week 3 projection still forecasts 8.1 targets and 73.3 receiving yards against Indianapolis, an estimate not grounded in a second confirmed appearance this season. Who it fits: For any manager starting Collins as a WR1, since he is rostered in 99.1% of leagues and typically auto-started without a second look. The risk: A single-game sample with no second entry could reflect a data gap rather than a missed game, so confirm against an injury report before drawing conclusions. Watch next: Look for a second 2026 box score or an official injury designation on Collins ahead of the game against IND on 2026-09-27. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 27, 01:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat TB
Kyler Murray
WATCH: Murray's only game log shows five pass attempts — confirm why before starting him Why now: The single 2026 game on record for Murray shows just 5 pass attempts, 3 completions, 18 yards and an interception, far too small a workload for a normal start, and there is no second game in the data at all (9 days since that lone game). The Week 3 projection of 33.3 attempts and 232.4 yards assumes a full workload the observed sample doesn't support. Who it fits: Relevant to managers holding Murray as a QB stream or bye-week fill, since the 17.3-point projection looks appealing on paper but isn't backed by recent usage in this data. The risk: This could reflect a reporting gap rather than an actual reduced role, so don't treat the five-attempt game as confirmed usage without checking further. Watch next: Look for a full second box score or a role/injury update on Murray before locking him into a lineup for 2026-09-27. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 27, 04:05 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
Dalton Schultz
CONSIDER ADD: Schultz is averaging 11 targets a game at just 21.6% rostered Why now: Schultz was targeted 14 times in Week 2 (12 catches, 140 yards) and 8 times in Week 1 (4 catches, 35 yards), an 11-target-per-game average that is rare tight end volume. He's rostered in only 21.6% of leagues with an 8.5% start rate, well below what that usage implies, and the Week 3 forecast against Indianapolis projects 5.8 targets and 42.2 yards. Who it fits: For managers in TE-needy leagues, especially half-PPR and PPR formats where the reception bonus turns high target volume into a real scoring floor. The risk: Week 2's 14 targets are well above Week 1's 8, so this is a two-game sample that could regress toward a smaller role once the offense settles. Watch next: Check his target count against IND on 2026-09-27 to see if the volume holds. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs LV
Tyler Shough
CONSIDER ADD: Shough is averaging 331 passing yards with rushing upside at 49.8% rostered Why now: Over his first two games Shough has thrown for 410 and 252 yards with 4 total passing touchdowns, and added a rushing score in Week 2 on top of that. He's rostered in only about half of leagues (49.8%) and started in just 14.8%, and the Week 3 projection of 18.8 points against Las Vegas lines up with what he's already produced. Who it fits: For managers streaming at QB or filling a bye week in standard, half-PPR or PPR leagues, since his rushing production adds points regardless of format. The risk: He threw 2 interceptions in Week 1 against Detroit, so turnover risk is real, and this is still just a two-game sample. Watch next: Track his interception rate and rushing attempts against LV on 2026-09-27 to see if the dual-threat profile holds. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs CAR
Denzel Boston
CONSIDER ADD: Boston has scored in both games and out-produced teammate Concepcion on touchdowns Why now: Boston caught touchdowns in both outings — 2 catches on 4 targets for 59 yards in Week 1 and 5 catches on 7 targets for 95 yards in Week 2 — while teammate KC Concepcion has run a comparable 5.5-target-per-game role but hasn't scored in either game. Boston is rostered in just 26.7% of leagues, and the Week 3 projection against Carolina is 4.1 receptions for 53.2 yards. Who it fits: For managers needing WR depth, particularly in touchdown-driven standard scoring where his two scores already stand out from a similarly-targeted teammate. The risk: Two touchdowns in two games is a small sample, and a 5.5-target-per-game role is closer to a WR3 than a true breakout, so scoring regression is likely. Watch next: Check Week 3 target share against Carolina on 2026-09-27 relative to Concepcion to see who trends toward the bigger role. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET.
TEAM RECORDTB @ NYY
Rays 8-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 8 starts
Eight starts, eight wins, and that is his entire season rather than a hot stretch, so the record folds in run support and bullpen work along with his own outings. A perfect mark is hard to keep clean because one rough night ends it. He gets the road test at Yankee Stadium tonight, and that streak is the number to weigh.
FANTASY USAGEat CLE
Bryce Young
CONSIDER ADD: Young is averaging 3 TD passes a game yet is rostered less than Shough or Love Why now: Young has thrown for 361 and 287 yards with three touchdowns in each of his first two games, a 324-yard, 3-TD per game average with only one interception total, but he's rostered in just 34.5% of leagues, below Tyler Shough (49.8% rostered) and Jordan Love (44.4% rostered) despite comparable or better output. His Week 3 projection against Cleveland (16.7 points) is also lower than either of theirs, even though his production so far has been stronger. Who it fits: For managers streaming QB or filling a bye week who want the best current output rather than the highest name-value projection; scoring format doesn't matter since none of these QBs get a reception bonus. The risk: Two games is a small sample and a 3-touchdown-per-game pace is unlikely to hold over a full season, so regression should be expected. Watch next: Check his touchdown and interception totals against Cleveland on 2026-09-27 to see if the pace holds. Evidence as of Sep 22, 11:00 PM ET.
PACE & SCRIPTTEN @ NYG
NYG: 32:03 time of possession per game to TEN's 22:25
NYG is controlling the ball for nearly 32 minutes a game while TEN is stuck under 22:30, a gap of almost ten minutes. That's over just two games, and NYG's number is close to last season's 30:58, while TEN's has dropped hard from 29:08. If TEN's time of possession stays this low, NYG's offense dictates pace and keeps the Titans defense on the field longer than usual. Bettors can build this into pace and total reads before it shows up in a wider line.
PACE & SCRIPTCIN @ PIT
CIN: 26.5 points per game to PIT's 11.5
CIN is at 26.5 points per game over 2 games; PIT is at 11.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 24.4 over 17 games and PIT at 23.4 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTSEA @ WSH
SEA: 8.5 points allowed per game to WSH's 30.5
SEA is at 8.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; WSH is at 30.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 17.2 over 17 games and WSH at 26.5 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTARI @ SF
SF: 31 points per game to ARI's 16.5
SF is scoring 31 points a game to ARI's 16.5, a 14.5-point gap through two games. SF's number is well above its 25.7 mark from last season, and ARI's is down from 20.9, but that's a two-game sample on both sides. Scoring rates like this tend to settle closer to last year's marks as more games get played. Bettors should see SF's hot start as an early edge that could narrow, not a locked-in gap between these two offenses.
PACE & SCRIPTARI @ SF
SF: 10 points allowed per game to ARI's 22.5
SF is allowing just 10 points a game while ARI is giving up 22.5, a 12.5 point gap on defense through two games. Both defenses are actually playing better than last season, SF down from 21.8 and ARI down from 28.7, so early-season scoring may be down leaguewide, not just for one side. With only two games in the books, this gap could shrink as opponents adjust. Bettors should note both defenses are trending well, with SF holding the sharper number of the two.
PACE & SCRIPTMIN @ TB
MIN: 12.5 points allowed per game to TB's 28
MIN is at 12.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; TB is at 28 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 19.6 over 17 games and TB at 24.2 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHHOU @ IND
IND: 1 sacks taken per game to HOU's 3.5
HOU is at 3.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 2.58 over 17 games and IND at 2.07 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHKC @ MIA
KC: 2 sacks taken per game to MIA's 4.5
KC is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; MIA is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 2.94 over 17 games and MIA at 2.92 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NE's 2.5
New England is turning the ball over 2.5 times a game while Jacksonville is at just 0.5, a big early gap. Both numbers are way off last year's pace, NE up from 0.94 and Jacksonville down from 1.06, and it's only two games each. Turnover rates are some of the most unstable numbers in football and rarely stay this far from career norms. If New England keeps giving the ball away at this rate, short fields for Jacksonville's offense become the story of this one.
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 turnovers committed per game to LAC's 2.5
BUF hasn't turned the ball over at all through two games, while LAC is giving it away 2.5 times a game. Last season both numbers were close and unremarkable, 1.24 for LAC and 1.12 for Buffalo, so zero turnovers for Buffalo over a full season is not realistic. Two games is a small sample for a stat that swings hard week to week. LAC's turnover rate is the bigger outlier of the two and the one to track.
PASS RUSHLV @ NO
LV: 2.5 sack yards lost per game to NO's 25.5
Vegas's line has kept its quarterback nearly untouched for sack yardage while New Orleans has been bleeding it, a real flip from last season when the Raiders were the ones getting stuffed and the Saints held up fine. That's only two games each, so it can swing fast once the schedule turns over. The number points more toward New Orleans's protection trouble than any new Raiders identity. Watch whether that pressure holds or eases as the schedule turns over.
PASS RUSHLV @ NO
LV: 1 sacks taken per game to NO's 4
New Orleans's line has given up sacks in bunches early while Vegas has kept its quarterback clean, the same pressure story showing up here as in the yardage numbers. Last season ran the other way, with Vegas allowing close to four sacks a game and New Orleans nearer three. Two games is a small window, but a line already this shaky heading into tougher pass rushes is a real flag. Watch whether Vegas's front keeps exploiting that protection issue or it evens out.
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ GB
GB: 21 points per game to ATL's 8
GB is scoring 21 points a game to ATL's 8 through two games. GB's number is close to last season's 23, but ATL has fallen way off its 20.8 average from a year ago. Two games is a short look, and points can swing hard on field position and turnovers. Bettors should treat ATL's offense as unproven until it shows it can finish drives against a real defense.
RED ZONECAR @ CLE
CAR: 70% red-zone scoring rate to CLE's 20%
CAR is scoring on 70% of its red zone trips, up from 53.3% last season, while CLE has dropped hard to 20% from 52.6%. Cleveland's number is the bigger swing here since it's such a steep fall from a year ago. Two games is a small sample for a rate stat that tends to bounce around. If Cleveland keeps stalling that close to the end zone, it caps their scoring no matter how well the offense moves the ball in between.
RED ZONEHOU @ IND
IND: 83.3% red-zone scoring rate to HOU's 44.4%
IND is converting 83.3% of its red zone trips, up from 65.2% last season, while HOU is at 44.4%, close to its 46.3% mark from a year ago. Indianapolis's number stands out since it's a real jump from an already solid rate. Two games is a small sample for a stat that can swing fast. If Indianapolis keeps finishing drives at this level, it turns yardage into points more efficiently than the raw numbers suggest.
RED ZONENE @ JAX
JAX: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 33.3%
NE is at 33.3% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; JAX is at 75% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 57.1% over 17 games and JAX at 61.8% over 17 games.
RED ZONEKC @ MIA
KC: 60% red-zone scoring rate to MIA's 20%
KC is at 60% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; MIA is at 20% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 57.6% over 17 games and MIA at 56.3% over 17 games.
RED ZONEARI @ SF
SF: 87.5% red-zone scoring rate to ARI's 50%
ARI is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; SF is at 87.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 54.1% over 17 games and SF at 65.2% over 17 games.
RED ZONEMIN @ TB
MIN: 80% red-zone scoring rate to TB's 37.5%
MIN is at 80% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; TB is at 37.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 56.9% over 17 games and TB at 54% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 312.5 team passing yards per game to CLE's 204
CAR is throwing for 312.5 yards a game, a big jump from last season's 179.3, while CLE sits at 204, also up from 165.2. Both teams are passing more than they did a year ago, but Carolina's rise is the sharper one. Two games is a small sample for a passing offense that wasn't known for this last year. Whether it holds depends on whether it's a real scheme change or just facing lighter opposition early.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU: 285.5 team passing yards per game to IND's 179.5
HOU is throwing for 285.5 yards a game, up from 218.1 last season, while IND sits lower at 179.5, down from 227.8. The roles have essentially flipped from a year ago, with Houston now the more pass-heavy offense of the two. Two games is a short look at what could just be early game scripts. Whether Houston keeps leaning on the pass like this shapes how much IND's secondary gets tested.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 271.5 team passing yards per game to MIA's 183.5
KC is throwing for 271.5 yards a game, up from 214.1 last season, while MIA is close to flat, 183.5 now against 180.5 a year ago. That makes Kansas City's rise the more notable number, since Miami looks like the same team through the air as last year. Two games is a small sample. A Chiefs offense now running and throwing well gives MIA's defense a tougher two-way problem to solve.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 24 first downs per game to MIA's 13
KC is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; MIA is at 13 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 19.8 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 44.8% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 20%
Cincinnati is converting third downs at a 44.8% clip while Pittsburgh is stuck at 20%, a huge split through two games. The Bengals number is close to last year's 43.4%, but Pittsburgh's has collapsed from 40%, so this looks more like a Pittsburgh problem than a Cincinnati surge. Two games is thin for a rate stat like this, and third down numbers tend to bounce back toward career norms. If Pittsburgh's offense can't move the chains, expect short fields and shorter drives for their defense to deal with too.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
MIN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to TB's 0%
MIN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; TB is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and TB at 44.8% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
GB: 244.5 team passing yards per game to ATL's 123.5
GB is throwing it a lot, 244.5 yards a game through the air, while ATL sits at just 123.5. Both teams passed for similar numbers last season, 207.2 for Atlanta and 212.8 for Green Bay, so this early split is a bigger swing than either team's usual role suggests. Two games each is a small sample. A pass-heavy Green Bay attack meeting a run-heavy Atlanta offense sets up a clash of styles worth tracking as more games come in.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 283 team passing yards per game to LAC's 185
BUF is putting up big passing numbers, 283 yards a game, while LAC sits lower at 185. Last season the two were nearly even, 212.2 for the Chargers and 216.6 for the Bills, so Buffalo's jump stands out more than LAC's number does. Only two games in for both sides. If Buffalo keeps throwing at this rate, it forces LAC's defense to lean on stopping the pass over the run.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 57.1% third-down conversion rate to LAC's 31.8%
LAC is at 31.8% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; BUF is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 45.8% over 17 games and BUF at 44.8% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
IND: 29.5 penalty yards per game to HOU's 94.5
HOU is racking up 94.5 penalty yards a game, well above its 58.2 mark from last season, while IND is much cleaner at 29.5, down from 51.2. Houston's jump is the bigger story, since penalties were already an issue last year and have gotten worse. Two games is a small sample, and penalty rates can swing game to game. If Houston keeps giving away yardage like this, it puts strain on a defense already facing short fields.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 63.2% third-down conversion rate to ARI's 34.6%
ARI is at 34.6% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; SF is at 63.2% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 41.5% over 17 games and SF at 49.8% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 9.5 yards per pass attempt to ARI's 5
ARI is at 5 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; SF is at 9.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 5.61 over 17 games and SF at 6.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DAL
DAL: 68.2% third-down conversion rate to BAL's 38.9%
Dallas is converting 68.2% of its third downs while Baltimore sits at just 38.9%, a wide gap through two games. Both numbers are far from last season, when they were nearly identical at 41.1% for Dallas and 40.9% for Baltimore. A jump like Dallas's rarely holds up at that level once a bigger sample kicks in. Set against Baltimore's rushing edge in this matchup, it points to a game where each side controls a different phase, Baltimore on the ground and Dallas on third down.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 305.5 team passing yards per game to LV's 204
LV is at 204 team passing yards per game over 2 games; NO is at 305.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 167.7 over 17 games and NO at 219.3 over 17 games.
TRENCHESPHI @ CHI
CHI: 212.5 rushing yards per game to PHI's 112.5
Chicago's offense has been gashing defenses on the ground, running well above last season's already solid pace, while Philadelphia's ground game looks about the same as a year ago. Two games is a small sample for Chicago's jump, so some of it could be softer fronts faced early. Philadelphia's number reads as the more stable of the two. Watch whether Chicago keeps forcing teams to load the box or fades against a tougher front.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSARI @ SF
SF: 6.85 yards per play to ARI's 4.35
San Francisco is averaging 6.85 yards per play against Arizona's 4.35, a 2.5 yard gap that's enormous by NFL standards. SF's number is well above last season's 5.49, and Arizona has fallen from 5.18, both over two games. Yards per play settles down over a bigger sample, and gaps this wide rarely survive contact with tougher defenses. Combined with SF's scoring edge, this points to an offense rolling early rather than a fixed talent gap between the two teams.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 7.2 yards per play to LAC's 5.15
BUF is averaging 7.2 yards a play to LAC's 5.15, well above where both sat last season, 5.19 for LAC and 5.94 for Buffalo. The gap shows up in chunk plays: Buffalo had seven runs or passes of 20-plus yards in its last game, led by a 43-yard Josh Allen to Joshua Palmer touchdown, while LAC had just one, a 53-yard Justin Herbert pass to Tre' Harris. Two games is a short sample. If Buffalo keeps generating explosive plays at this rate, LAC's defense faces a tougher test than the raw yardage suggests.
TRENCHESATL @ GB
ATL: 138.5 rushing yards per game to GB's 64.5
ATL is leaning on the ground game early, running for 138.5 yards a game through two weeks while GB barely gets to 64.5. Last season these two were close, 125.8 for Atlanta and 119.8 for Green Bay, so GB's drop looks more like game script than a real identity change, likely from playing behind. Two games is a thin sample. If Atlanta keeps controlling the clock on the ground, it pressures Green Bay to abandon its own run game entirely.
TRENCHESBAL @ DAL
BAL: 155 rushing yards per game to DAL's 67.5
Baltimore is running for 155 yards a game while Dallas is down at 67.5, an 87.5 yard gap through two games. Baltimore's number is right in line with last season's 156.6, so that's who they are, but Dallas has fallen off hard from 125.6. That kind of drop for Dallas over two games could be matchups faced more than a full rebuild of their run game. If Baltimore's line keeps controlling the line of scrimmage like this, expect them to lean on the run and shorten the game against Dallas.
TURNOVERSATL @ GB
GB: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to ATL's 2.5
ATL is at 2.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; GB is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 0.47 over 17 games and GB at 0.41 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLAC @ BUF
BUF: 38.5 points per game to LAC's 14
BUF is averaging 38.5 points a game to LAC's 14 through two games. BUF is well above last season's 28.3, while LAC has dropped from 21.6. It's only two games, and blowout scores can skew an average fast. The scoring gap says BUF has been able to dictate pace early, so the number to watch is whether LAC can slow things down before it turns into another lopsided game script.
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ CLE
CAR: 35.5 points per game to CLE's 16.5
CAR is scoring 35.5 points a game to CLE's 16.5 through two games. CAR's number is nearly double last season's 18.3, while CLE is right in line with its 16.4 average from a year ago. Two games of CAR scoring at this rate is a small sample for such a large jump. CLE's number looks like its real level, so the bigger question for bettors is whether CAR's offense is actually this good or just caught two soft matchups.
TURNOVERSMIN @ TB
MIN: 0 fumbles lost per game to TB's 2
MIN is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; TB is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 0.53 over 17 games and TB at 0.29 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSMIN @ TB
MIN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TB's 2.5
Minnesota has turned it over just 0.5 times a game while Tampa Bay is at 2.5, a big early split. That's a reversal from last season, when Minnesota was actually the more turnover prone team at 1.76 to Tampa's 0.94. Two games is a small sample for a stat this streaky, and turnover rates usually swing back toward the middle. If Tampa Bay keeps giving the ball away like this, Minnesota's offense could keep getting shorter fields to work with.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 15 points allowed per game to DET's 35.5
NYJ is allowing just 15 points a game on defense, while DET is giving up 35.5, through two games each. That's a big swing from last season, when NYJ allowed 29.6 a game and DET allowed 24.3. Two games is a small sample for either defense, especially for NYJ given how far its number moved from last year. If that split holds, this game leans on which offense can take advantage of the weaker defense, and right now that points to DET's side.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 32 points per game to MIA's 13
KC is outscoring opponents by 19 points a game so far, MIA is barely getting into double digits. Both numbers are only two games old: KC was a 21.3 point-per-game team last season and MIA sat at 20.4, so neither side is playing to last year's level yet. That gap should tighten as the sample grows, since a two-game stretch can swing hard either way. For bettors, this reads as early variance more than a proven talent gap, a game-script edge rather than a settled read on either offense.
TURNOVERSATL @ GB
GB: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to ATL's 3.5
ATL is at 3.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; GB is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 1.06 over 17 games and GB at 0.76 over 17 games.
TRENCHESKC @ MIA
KC: 186 rushing yards per game to MIA's 88
KC is running for 186 yards a game, way up from last season's 106.6, while MIA sits at 88, down from 120.2. Kansas City's jump is the headline here, a real shift for a team that leaned on the pass a year ago. Two games is a short sample for a run game that could just be facing softer fronts early. If KC keeps establishing the run like this, it changes how defenses have to prepare for an offense that used to live through the air.
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Taj Bradley (RHP), batting 1st
Gilbert leads off tonight against a right hander, exactly the side he hits best. He has a .778 OPS against righties over 286 at bats this season, against just .219 in 43 at bats versus lefties. The righty sample is the real one, the lefty number is too small to mean much. Batting first against Bradley, he's in the spot where his numbers actually back him up.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TRENCHESNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 65.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DET's 147
Detroit is giving up 147 rushing yards a game, more than double the Jets' 65.5 allowed, both over just two games. The Jets' number stands out early, but two games is a small window to call any run defense elite. Detroit's high mark could tighten up or could keep bleeding yards if the issue is structural rather than matchup-driven. Either way, the ground game is a real avenue to attack Detroit's defense this week.
HEAD-TO-HEADHOU @ SEA
Mariners are 9-2 vs Astros this season
Eleven meetings is close to a full season series, so winning nine of them is real repeated success against Houston and not a hot week. The last meeting was a 3-2 Seattle win. There is no detail on which arms or which parks decided those games, so nothing ties the trend to tonight's pitching matchup.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
CHI: 1.5 takeaways per game to PHI's 0
CHI's defense has forced 1.5 takeaways a game, PHI has forced zero through two games. Zero takeaways in two games stands out, though the sample is tiny and takeaway numbers move around more than almost any other defensive stat. PHI is likely to pick up a turnover or two before long simply because the rate is so unusual. Don't read PHI's zero as a lasting trait of the defense.
TURNOVERSLV @ NO
LV: 2.5 takeaways per game to NO's 1
LV is at 2.5 takeaways per game over 2 games; NO is at 1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSMIN @ TB
MIN: 2 takeaways per game to TB's 0.5
MIN is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; TB is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSSEA @ WSH
SEA: 2 takeaways per game to WSH's 0
SEA is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSCAR @ CLE
CAR: 3 takeaways per game to CLE's 0.5
Carolina is forcing 3 takeaways a game while Cleveland has managed just 0.5, both across two games. Takeaway rates are famously noisy this early, so a pace of 3 a game for Carolina is unlikely to hold at that level all season. Cleveland's low number could just as easily be a product of limited opportunities so far. Turnover margin swings like this are more about randomness than skill this early, so treat the gap as a small sample rather than a real signal.
TRENCHESLAR @ DEN
LAR: 142.5 rushing yards per game to DEN's 82.5
The Rams have been running it well early, building on a ground game that was already solid last season, while Denver's rushing numbers have dropped off from a year ago. That's only two games for Denver, so it could reflect tougher fronts faced rather than a real decline. Los Angeles's number looks like a continuation of last season's identity. Watch the Rams try to establish the run against a Denver front still finding its footing.
COVERAGENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 131.5 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 310.5
Detroit is allowing 310.5 passing yards a game, more than double the Jets' 131.5, both over two games. That gap says as much about opponents faced as it does about talent this early. Detroit's number probably won't stay this high all year, but it won't fix itself against a Jets passing attack this week. The matchup pits New York's passing attack against a defense that's already sprung a big leak through two games.
COVERAGENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 4 yards per play allowed to DET's 6
Detroit is allowing 6 yards per play, two full yards worse than the Jets' 4, both over two games. That's a wide split for such an early sample, and yards per play tends to normalize as more games get played. Efficiency numbers like this can flip fast once a defense faces a different kind of offense. New York's early mark looks strong, but the real test is whether it holds against Detroit's offense this week.
COVERAGENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 23.8% third downs allowed to DET's 58.6%
NYJ is at 23.8% third downs allowed over 2 games; DET is at 58.6% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGEKC @ MIA
KC: 4.45 yards per play allowed to MIA's 6.05
KC is at 4.45 yards per play allowed over 2 games; MIA is at 6.05 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGEKC @ MIA
KC: 29.2% third downs allowed to MIA's 50%
Miami is allowing conversions on 50% of third downs faced, compared to Kansas City's 29.2%, both over two games. A near coin flip conversion rate this early is notable, but it's built on a small sample of situations. Numbers like this tend to come back toward the middle as more downs get played. For now, third down looks like a stage where Miami's defense has been giving opponents new life.
COVERAGETEN @ NYG
TEN: 43.3% third downs allowed to NYG's 65%
TEN is at 43.3% third downs allowed over 2 games; NYG is at 65% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGECIN @ PIT
PIT: 154.5 passing yards allowed per game to CIN's 253.5
CIN is at 253.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; PIT is at 154.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGESEA @ WSH
SEA: 124.5 passing yards allowed per game to WSH's 224
SEA is at 124.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; WSH is at 224 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGESEA @ WSH
SEA: 3.65 yards per play allowed to WSH's 6.05
Washington is allowing 6.05 yards per play, well above Seattle's 3.65, both over two games. A 2.4 yard gap this early is wide, but two games is not much to build a full season read on either defense. Seattle's tight number suggests a defense limiting big plays so far, while Washington's says the opposite. This week is a chance to see whether that gap is a real talent difference or an early season mirage.
COVERAGESEA @ WSH
SEA: 28.6% third downs allowed to WSH's 52%
Washington is letting opponents convert 52% of third downs, compared to Seattle's 28.6%, both over two games. A number that high early usually means a defense has struggled to get off the field in a handful of key moments. Seattle, by contrast, has been getting off the field at a much higher rate through its first two games. Third down looks like a real weak spot for Washington heading into this game, though the sample is still just two games worth of series.
COVERAGEBAL @ DAL
BAL: 44% third downs allowed to DAL's 68%
BAL's defense has held offenses to 44% on third down, DAL has allowed 68%, a 24-point gap. Both numbers are from two games, a small sample for a third-down rate. A 68% conversion rate against you is rough regardless of opponent, and that stat usually tracks pass rush and coverage discipline more than schedule. DAL's third-down defense looks like a real soft spot heading into this game.
TRENCHESBAL @ DAL
BAL: 83.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 173.5
BAL is allowing just 83.5 rushing yards a game, DAL is giving up 173.5, roughly double. Two games each, so it's early, but that's a wide split in how each front has handled the run. A gap this large usually points to a real issue for the team on the wrong end rather than pure schedule luck. DAL's run defense looks like the softer side of this matchup on paper.
TRENCHESHOU @ IND
HOU: 85.5 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 177
Indianapolis is allowing 177 rushing yards a game, more than double Houston's 85.5, both over two games. A split that big early usually says more about opponents faced than a settled read on either run defense. Houston's number looks sturdy so far, but the true test comes against a run game that can actually stress it. This week points to the ground game as the more promising path against IND.
TRENCHESCAR @ CLE
CLE: 131.5 rushing yards allowed per game to CAR's 224
Carolina is giving up 224 rushing yards a game, well above Cleveland's 131.5, both over just two games. That's a small sample, and a run defense number this high after two weeks often reflects one bad outing more than a season-long trend. Cleveland's mark reads solid early, but two games isn't enough to call either unit settled. This week pits a leaky run defense against a run game that can either confirm the number or start to correct it.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 27 first downs per game to LAC's 17
LAC is at 17 first downs per game over 2 games; BUF is at 27 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 19.5 over 17 games and BUF at 22 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
ATL: 67.5 penalty yards per game to GB's 115.5
ATL is at 67.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; GB is at 115.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 48.2 over 17 games and GB at 48.1 over 17 games.
RED ZONEARI @ SF
SF: 20% red-zone scoring allowed to ARI's 62.5%
SF's defense has allowed a score on just 20% of red zone trips, an excellent number, while ARI's defense has let opponents score on 62.5% of theirs. Both marks come from only two games, a small sample that can swing fast. Red zone defense often reflects real coaching and personnel rather than pure luck, so SF's number has a decent chance of holding, though two games is not much proof yet.
RED ZONECAR @ CLE
CLE: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to CAR's 100%
Carolina has allowed touchdowns on 100% of opponents' red zone trips this season, compared to Cleveland's 50%, both over two games. A number that extreme after two games usually means a couple of tough short-field situations rather than a broken defense. Perfect red zone failure rates like Carolina's tend to regress toward the middle of the pack as the sample grows. Until then, red zone trips against Carolina look like a live spot for the offense.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is out for GB
Bako-Bewele tore his right patellar tendon completely in Sunday's overtime win over the Jets and has surgery scheduled for Thursday that ends his season. That is a season-ending injury, which means Green Bay needs a full-time answer at his spot on the offensive line for the rest of the year, starting with Thursday's game against Atlanta. A complete tendon tear is about as clear-cut as this kind of report gets, so the out tag here is not going anywhere.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Jayden Reed (WR) is doubtful for GB
Reed left Green Bay to get more testing and see specialists about his neck, and coach Matt LaFleur says there is still no timeline for his return. A neck injury with no clear return window is the kind of thing that tends to keep a player out longer than one game, and doubtful for a short week against Atlanta fits that. Green Bay's other receivers pick up his targets until there is real clarity.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) is questionable for ATL
Penix is questionable with a knee issue, but the Falcons have already named him their starter for Thursday's game against Green Bay, so the tag looks like standard practice-report language rather than a real doubt. A team naming its starter days out usually means the injury is manageable. Expect him under center unless something changes between now and kickoff.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) is questionable for ATL
Tagovailoa was listed as a limited participant in Monday's walk-through with an ankle injury, which is a step up from sitting out entirely. Questionable off a limited practice usually means the injury is manageable enough to play through. Watch the rest of the week's practice reports for confirmation before assuming he starts.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
David Njoku (TE) is out for LAC
Njoku is out with a fibula injury and heading to injured reserve alongside fellow tight end Charlie Kolar, so the Chargers lose both their top two tight ends at once. That is a multi-week absence by rule, not a game-to-game watch. Look for the next tight end on the depth chart to see a real jump in targets while both are out.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Charlie Kolar (TE) is out for LAC
Kolar is set for surgery to repair a broken forearm and is heading to injured reserve alongside Njoku, so the Chargers lose both tight ends at once. He hopes to return as soon as he's eligible off IR, which points toward the Chargers' game against the Rams. Until then, the tight end snaps go to whoever is left on the roster.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Dalvin Tomlinson (DT) is doubtful for LAC
Tomlinson is considered likely to miss time after hurting his hamstring during Sunday's game against the Raiders. That's a one-game injury so far, sustained in-game rather than something that lingered, and hamstring issues on the interior line often cost more than a single week. Whoever backs him up at defensive tackle should see extra snaps until he's back.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Jonathon Brooks (RB) is doubtful for CAR
Brooks hurt his groin in Sunday's 34-3 win over the Falcons and is getting more medical opinions before it's clear how long he's out. He's being treated as week-to-week rather than a quick return, so this is more than a one-week bruise. Carolina's backfield touches shift to whoever is next in the rotation while he's sidelined.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Mason Taylor (TE) is doubtful for NYJ
Taylor is dealing with a thumb injury that has him considered week-to-week, and the expectation is he sits out Sunday against the Lions. A thumb injury for a tight end can affect catching and blocking both, which is likely why this isn't a quick one-week deal. The next tight end up for the Jets absorbs his snaps and targets.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Alec Pierce (WR) is doubtful for IND
Pierce is choosing to rehab his left heel injury without surgery, and the expectation is several weeks out with a possible return around midseason if it goes well. That's a real absence, not a week-to-week tag, since the team is already planning around a return more than a month out. Indianapolis' other receivers take on his role in the passing game until he's back.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Anthony Richardson Sr. (QB) is questionable for IND
Richardson is dealing with a groin injury and did not practice Wednesday of last week, which is why he carries a questionable tag. A player missing practice entirely rather than being limited is usually a bigger flag than a limited session would be. Check the more recent practice reports to see whether that groin has cleared up since.
PASS RUSHLV @ NO
LV: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2
LV's defense is averaging 4 sacks a game, NO sits at 2. Only two games each, but sack rate tends to be more repeatable game to game than takeaways. If LV's pass rush has been winning up front consistently, that's a real factor against NO's protection this week.
PASS RUSHMIN @ TB
MIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to TB's 1.5
MIN's defense is averaging 4 sacks a game, well ahead of TB's 1.5. Both marks are from two games, but pass rush production tends to hold up better than most defensive stats this early. If MIN's front has been getting home consistently rather than catching favorable game scripts, that edge could carry into this matchup with TB's line.
PASS RUSHKC @ MIA
KC: 2 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0
Kansas City has 2 sacks a game so far, while Miami has zero through two games. A shutout on sacks over two games is still a thin sample, since one hurried scramble the other way can change it quickly. Kansas City's pressure rate has been consistent early, which at least says the front seven is doing something right. Miami's lack of sacks is one to track as the season adds games, rather than something to treat as settled.
PASS RUSHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to LAC's 1.5
Buffalo has racked up 3.5 sacks a game through two weeks, more than double the Chargers' 1.5. Both numbers come from just two games, a thin sample for judging a pass rush or a line. Rates like this move fast, so Buffalo's mark could cool once it meets a sturdier offensive line, or LAC's could keep sagging if its protection is the real issue. This matchup is a direct test of which explanation is closer to true.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jaxson Dart (QB) is doubtful for NYG
Dart's left knee injury from Monday's 28-6 loss to the Rams turned out to be worse than first thought after further testing, and he's now facing possible season-ending surgery. That's about as serious as a doubtful tag gets, closer to an out than a game-time coin flip. If he can't go, the Giants turn to whoever is next on the quarterback depth chart for an extended stretch.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Joe Burrow (QB) is questionable for CIN
Burrow (back) remains listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Texans, but he "should be good to go" barring a setback, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jayden Daniels (QB) is doubtful for WSH
Daniels underwent imaging on his elbow Monday and is now consulting with multiple specialists before there's any real clarity on his status. That kind of multi-doctor process usually points to more than a minor bump, which lines up with the doubtful tag. Washington's backup quarterback situation becomes the story if he can't answer the elbow question in time.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Sam Darnold (QB) is questionable for SEA
Darnold is dealing with a glute injury but is planning to practice Wednesday, which is a positive sign for a questionable tag this early in the week. Getting back on the practice field days before kickoff usually means the issue is trending toward playable. Watch how he moves through the rest of the week's sessions before assuming he sits.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Demarcus Robinson (WR) is out for SF
Robinson suffered a high-ankle sprain in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Dolphins and is facing a three-to-six week recovery, which is why he's out. High-ankle sprains rarely clear on the short end of that range, so this is a multi-week absence rather than a one-week watch. San Francisco's other receivers pick up his snaps and targets while he's out.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Will Johnson (CB) is out for ARI
Johnson is done for this game, and the outlook is worse than a normal week to week tag: the report says a neck injury could keep him out for the rest of the season. That's a long term hole in Arizona's secondary, more than a single missed Sunday. Nothing here says who takes his snaps, so watch how Arizona uses its cornerbacks before leaning on their pass defense either way.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
James Thompson Jr. (DT) is doubtful for SF
Thompson is banged up along San Francisco's interior line, a high ankle sprain, the kind that usually lingers. It happened in last week's blowout win over Miami, so there was no buildup, just one game that ended his week early. Doubtful means San Francisco is bracing for him to sit, and high ankle sprains rarely clear in a single week. If he's out, that's fewer snaps up front for San Francisco's run defense and pass rush against Arizona.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Cobie Durant (CB) is out for DAL
Durant is out for Dallas after a hamstring injury in last week's win over Washington, and his own coach attached a real timeline to it: a few weeks, more than a single game. That means a corner spot stays open for a while, so Dallas's secondary depth matters more than usual against Baltimore. Hamstring injuries on defensive backs tend to be handled cautiously, so don't expect a quick return before that few weeks window is up.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
P.J. Locke (S) is out for DAL
Locke is out too, a foot injury that had him leave last week's win over Washington early, and Schottenheimer used the same few weeks timeline for him as he did for Durant. That's two starting caliber pieces of Dallas's secondary out at once, not one isolated injury. Expect Dallas's back end to lean on backups against Baltimore until both are back.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is out for NO
Banks is out indefinitely for New Orleans, and this isn't a simple questionable tag: he's set for surgery on a high ankle sprain. That's a starting tackle spot that won't reopen in a week or two. Indefinite plus surgery means New Orleans is working with a backup tackle for a while, a real factor in how their pass protection holds up against Las Vegas.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Caleb Williams (QB) is doubtful for CHI
Williams is doubtful with a hamstring, and his coach said he doesn't expect him to practice at all this week, usually a bad sign ahead of a Monday game. Ben Johnson wouldn't officially rule him out either, so there's a sliver of chance he suits up without a full week of practice. A quarterback who hasn't practiced playing Monday against Philadelphia is a real downgrade risk if he does go, and a bigger one if Chicago turns to a backup instead.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tyson Bagent (QB) is questionable for CHI
Bagent, Chicago's backup, is now questionable himself after being placed in the concussion protocol on Tuesday. With Williams also dealing with a hamstring, Chicago's quarterback room is thin heading into Monday against Philadelphia. Clearing the protocol usually takes several days at minimum, so his availability could come down to the final days before kickoff.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Dallas Goedert (TE) is doubtful for PHI
Goedert is doubtful with a sprained MCL, and the expectation is a few weeks out, not a one game absence. That's Philadelphia's starting tight end missing extended time, a real hole in the passing game underneath. Whoever fills in at tight end for Philadelphia becomes a bigger part of the game plan against Chicago while Goedert is out.
MISMATCHPHI @ CHI
CHI: 212.5 rush yards a game to PHI's 112.5
Chicago is running for 212.5 yards a game, nearly double Philadelphia's 112.5, through two games each. That's a big early gap, and with only two games played it could reflect the fronts each team has faced as much as anything structural. Numbers like this tend to come back some as the schedule lengthens, but right now Chicago is clearly leaning on the run and having success doing it. Philadelphia's run defense holding up against that kind of volume is the matchup to watch here.
MISMATCHLV @ NO
LV: 1 sacks taken a game to NO's 4
Las Vegas' offensive line has allowed just one sack a game while New Orleans' line is giving up four a game through two games each. A number like New Orleans' four usually points to real pass protection trouble, though it's still just two games and could include a couple of matchups against strong pass rushes. If that protection issue continues, New Orleans' quarterback is playing under constant pressure, which changes how they can attack through the air. Las Vegas' pass rush against a line already struggling to protect is a real factor here.
MISMATCHBAL @ DAL
DAL: 68.2% on third down to BAL's 38.9%
Dallas is converting 68.2% of its own third downs while Baltimore's offense is down at just 38.9% through two games each. A rate as high as Dallas' usually cools off as the sample grows past two games, while Baltimore's number tends to climb back toward normal too. Right now Dallas is clearly the more efficient offense on third down, staying on schedule and keeping drives alive. That gap, if it holds even partly, means Dallas is likely to control the clock and limit Baltimore's possessions.
MISMATCHMIN @ TB
MIN: 0.5 turnovers a game to TB's 2.5
Minnesota has given the ball away just half a time a game while Tampa Bay is turning it over two and a half times a game through two games each. A gap like that early usually traces back to a couple of costly plays for Tampa Bay rather than a lasting trend, and turnover numbers tend to even out as more games get played. Until Tampa Bay tightens that up, they're giving Minnesota extra possessions and shorter fields to work with, and that's the kind of thing that can decide a close game.
MISMATCHARI @ SF
SF: 6.85 yards a snap to ARI's 4.35
San Francisco is averaging 6.85 yards every time it snaps the ball on offense, well ahead of Arizona's 4.35, through two games each. That's a big early efficiency gap, and with just two games in the books it could reflect the opponents each team has faced as much as anything else. Numbers this wide on a per snap basis usually narrow some as the sample grows, but right now San Francisco is getting far more out of every play it runs. If that holds even close to this level, it pressures Arizona's defense on early downs.
MISMATCHNE @ JAX
JAX: 0.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5
Jacksonville has turned the ball over just half a time a game on average while New England is giving it away two and a half times a game through two games each. A number like New England's usually comes from a couple of specific mistakes rather than a real pattern, and turnover rates tend to settle as the season goes. Until New England cleans it up, they're putting their defense in tough spots and handing Jacksonville extra chances to cash in.
MISMATCHSEA @ WSH
SEA: 8.5 points allowed a game to WSH's 30.5
Seattle's defense has allowed just 8.5 points a game while Washington's defense is giving up 30.5, nearly four times as much, through two games each. Two games is a small sample, and a number like Washington's 30.5 usually comes back down as the schedule evens out. Until it does, Seattle's offense is facing the softer defense in this matchup while Washington's offense deals with one of the tightest units through two weeks. That gap on defense is the biggest factor in how this game plays out.
MISMATCHCIN @ PIT
CIN: 44.8% on third down to PIT's 20%
Cincinnati is converting 44.8% of its third downs while Pittsburgh is down at just 20% through two games each. A number that low for Pittsburgh over two games usually means a few long, tough third downs rather than a season long trend, and it's likely to climb back toward normal. Cincinnati staying on schedule and picking up third downs at that rate keeps drives alive and keeps Pittsburgh's defense on the field longer. That imbalance is the kind of thing that decides whether this game stays close.
MISMATCHTEN @ NYG
NYG: 32:03 of possession a game to TEN's 22:25
The Giants are controlling the ball for just over 32 minutes a game while Tennessee is down at 22:25, a wide gap through two games each. That kind of split usually comes from third down success and a run game that can chew clock, and it's only two games so it can still move. If New York keeps winning time of possession like that, it limits how many series Tennessee's offense actually gets. Staying on schedule and keeping drives alive is what decides whether New York keeps controlling the clock like this.
MISMATCHKC @ MIA
KC: 186 rush yards a game to MIA's 88
Kansas City is running for 186 yards a game, more than double Miami's 88, through two games each. Early rushing splits like this can come from facing a soft front or simply leaning on the run with a lead, and two games isn't much to go on for either side. If Kansas City keeps controlling the ground game at that rate, it shortens the contest and leans on Miami's run defense to hold up. That's the matchup inside the matchup, Kansas City's ground game against a Miami front that's given up a lot early.
MISMATCHHOU @ IND
HOU: 285.5 pass yards a game to IND's 179.5
Houston is averaging 285.5 passing yards a game, more than a hundred yards ahead of Indianapolis' 179.5, through two games apiece. That's a small sample, and gaps like this early often shrink as the schedule turns over and opponents adjust their plans. Houston leaning on the pass at that rate against Indianapolis' defense is the matchup to watch, especially if Indianapolis can't keep pace and Houston ends up throwing even more to protect a lead.
MISMATCHNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 15 points allowed a game to DET's 35.5
The Jets defense has allowed just 15 points a game while Detroit's defense is giving up 35.5, more than double, through two games each. That's a small early sample for both, and a number like Detroit's 35.5 rarely holds once the schedule evens out. Until it does, the Jets offense gets to work against the softer side of this matchup while Detroit's offense faces one of the tighter defenses through two weeks. That contrast, a leaky Lions defense against a tight Jets one, shapes how this plays out.
MISMATCHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 312.5 pass yards a game to CLE's 204
Carolina is putting up 312.5 passing yards a game, well ahead of Cleveland's 204. Both numbers are early, just two games each, so a soft opponent or a game where Carolina had to throw to catch up could be inflating that gap. Big early passing numbers like this often come back toward the middle as the sample grows and defenses adjust. If Carolina keeps airing it out at that clip, Cleveland's defense is the swing factor in whether this stays a shootout or turns into a grind.
MISMATCHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 turnovers a game to LAC's 2.5
Buffalo hasn't turned the ball over in two games while the Chargers are giving it away two and a half times a game. Two games is a small sample, and turnover rates like this often swing on a couple of fluky picks and fumbles rather than a real pattern, so it should tighten some. Until the Chargers clean it up they're playing behind the chains, and a defense that protects the ball the way Buffalo does is built to cash in on the extra chances.
MISMATCHATL @ GB
GB: 244.5 pass yards a game to ATL's 123.5
Green Bay is throwing for nearly double Atlanta's pace through two games, 244.5 yards a game to 123.5. Both marks come from just two games, and passing numbers like this often reflect game script, a team ahead throws less, a team behind throws more. Expect Green Bay to keep attacking through the air here unless Atlanta finds a way to control the clock and shorten the game.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF: 8.9 yards per pass attempt to LAC's 6.15
LAC is at 6.15 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; BUF is at 8.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 5.87 over 17 games and BUF at 6.88 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHHOU @ IND
IND: 8.5 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 28
HOU is at 28 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; IND is at 8.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and IND at 15.1 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 72.5 offensive plays per game to MIA's 53
KC is at 72.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; MIA is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 62.4 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Aidan O'Connell (QB) is questionable for LV
O'Connell is listed as questionable for Las Vegas, with no specific injury detail attached to the tag. There's little to go on beyond that, so his status is one to check again as the week's practice reports come in against New Orleans.
MISMATCHLAR @ DEN
LAR: 142.5 rush yards a game to DEN's 82.5
The Rams are running for 142.5 yards a game, well ahead of Denver's 82.5, through two games each. It's a small early sample, and a gap like this can come from the fronts each team has already faced as much as anything else. If the Rams keep that up, it puts real weight on Denver's run defense to hold up and force them into more passing downs. That battle up front, the Rams' ground game against Denver's defensive line, is a big piece of how this game plays out.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to NE's 2
New England has been throwing interceptions at a rate well above last season's careful number, while Jacksonville's turnover rate is close to where it sat a year ago. Two games is a tiny sample for a stat like this, and one or two bad throws can swing a per-game average fast. New England's jump is the real departure from last season's identity here. Watch whether that trend holds against Jacksonville's defense or evens out as the sample grows.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ OAK
Angels 1-7 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 8 starts
This is his full season rather than a recent slide, so a 1-7 mark covers a lot of bad nights mixed together, with run support, defense and his own work all feeding in. Eight games is still few enough that a couple of different bounces change the picture. He starts at Oakland tonight.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ BOS
Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
Eight starts is a short sample and there is no prior season number to check it against, so weigh the 7-1 with that in mind. Four straight wins inside the stretch show one game is not propping it up. He starts at home against Cleveland, and one more decision either way moves the mark.
TEAM RECORDMIA @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts
Chicago has won 7 of Shota Imanaga's last eight starts, with a three game winning streak running now. Eight starts is a workable sample but on the smaller side, so recent form carries most of that 7-1. There is no opponent trend or last season figure to compare against, and tonight is a home game against Miami rather than a repeat of a specific spot. The run is real for the Cubs behind him.
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 interceptions thrown per game to LAC's 1.5
LAC is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 0.82 over 17 games and BUF at 0.59 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHBAL @ DAL
DAL: 6.5 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 25.5
Dallas's line has kept its quarterback clean for sack yardage, a real improvement from last season, while Baltimore has been bleeding sack yards at an even higher rate than a year ago. Two games is a small sample, and both numbers can shift once schedules turn over. Baltimore's increase is the bigger flag since it builds on an already middling number from last season. Watch whether Dallas keeps that up against a Baltimore line already struggling up front.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 35:21 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:40
KC is at 35:21 time of possession per game over 2 games; MIA is at 27:40 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 30:09 over 17 games and MIA at 28:57 over 17 games.
COVERAGEMIN @ TB
MIN: 29.6% third downs allowed to TB's 48.1%
MIN's defense has held third downs to 29.6%, TB has allowed 48.1%, an 18.5-point gap. Two games each, so it's early, but that's a real split in how each defense handles money downs. Third down defense tends to reflect actual pass rush and coverage ability more than schedule luck. TB's number looks like a genuine issue to watch in this matchup.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
DET: 31 points per game to NYJ's 20
Detroit is scoring 31 points a game, above last season's 28.3, while the Jets are at 20, actually up from 17.6 a year ago. Both numbers are over just two games, so there's room for regression, but Detroit scoring at a high clip is consistent with who they've been. The bigger question for Sunday is whether the Jets can keep pace offensively against a Lions team that's shown it can put points up in bunches.
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ MIA
KC: 20 points allowed per game to MIA's 31
KC is at 20 points allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.
TRENCHESPHI @ CHI
CHI: 5.9 yards per rush attempt to PHI's 4.1
Chicago is averaging nearly six yards every time it runs the ball, a clear jump from last season's already decent number, while Philadelphia's per-carry average is basically identical to a year ago. That's just two games for Chicago, so some of the jump could be opponents faced early. Philadelphia's steadiness suggests its ground game is already near its true level. Watch whether Chicago's number holds against a tougher front or fades back toward last season.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) is inactive for WSH
Kaliakmanis is officially out for Sunday, inactive by coach's decision, and he's Washington's emergency third quarterback. He only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down, so this has no bearing on the game plan.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Josh Johnson (QB) is inactive for CIN
Johnson is officially out for Sunday, a coach's decision rather than an injury. He's buried behind Cincinnati's top two quarterbacks, so this doesn't change anything about the game plan.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Puka Nacua (WR) is questionable for LAR
Nacua is the Rams' top receiver, and a groin injury has head coach Sean McVay unsure heading into the week, saying he isn't certain of Nacua's status but is hopeful he plays. That kind of open uncertainty from the coach points to a game time call rather than a settled situation. Losing a receiver of Nacua's role would be a real dent to Los Angeles' passing game, so this is one to track through the week's practice reports.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Ty Simpson (QB) is inactive for LAR
Simpson is the Rams' third string quarterback, inactive by coach's decision and active only as the emergency arm for Monday's game. There's no injury attached, it's a straightforward depth chart move behind the top two quarterbacks. It doesn't change anything about who's under center for Los Angeles.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Chris Olave (WR) is questionable for NO
Olave is questionable with a hamstring injury but is on track to play Sunday against Baltimore, according to Adam Schefter. That's a good sign for a hamstring issue, which can otherwise linger or resurface once a player is back on the field. If he's active, keep an eye on his early snaps for any sign the Saints are managing his workload.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Drew Allar (QB) is inactive for PIT
Allar is officially out for Sunday, ruled inactive by coach's decision rather than injury. It's a straightforward healthy scratch with no impact on Pittsburgh's quarterback plan.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kurtis Rourke (QB) is inactive for SF
Rourke is San Francisco's third string quarterback, inactive by coach's decision and on hand only as the emergency arm. There's no injury involved, just a roster move behind the top two quarterbacks. It has no bearing on how San Francisco's offense is built Sunday.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Saquon Barkley (RB) is questionable for PHI
Barkley left Sunday's game against the Titans questionable to return after a hit left him with a neck and shoulder stinger. Stingers are usually a series to series or game time call, so this reads as an in game trainer's evaluation rather than a settled pregame tag. He's Philadelphia's workhorse back, so any real absence changes the shape of the offense's run game workload. Until there's word he's back on the field, this one stays unresolved.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Kyle Monangai (RB) is questionable for CHI
Monangai (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
D'Andre Swift (RB) is questionable for CHI
Swift (ankle/knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Kyler Murray (QB) is inactive for MIN
Murray is already ruled out for Sunday with a concussion, so that part of the game is settled. Schefter reports the more useful detail: he's expected to clear protocol and is on track to play Sept 27 at Tampa Bay. That's a clean recovery timeline, not a lingering issue heading into next week.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Case Keenum (QB) is inactive for CHI
Keenum (coach's decision) is inactive but serving as the Bears' emergency third quarterback against the Vikings on Sunday. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Will Howard (QB) is inactive for PIT
Howard is officially out for Sunday, inactive by coach's decision, and he's Pittsburgh's emergency third quarterback. That role only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him are hurt, so it carries no game plan weight.
RED ZONECAR @ CLE
CAR: 5 red-zone trips per game to CLE's 2.5
CAR is at 5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; CLE is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 2.65 over 17 games and CLE at 2.24 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR) is questionable for JAX
Thomas (shoulder) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
LeQuint Allen Jr. (RB) is questionable for JAX
Allen is questionable for Jacksonville with a hip injury after being limited in Wednesday's practice. A limited session that early in the week is less telling than one closer to gameday, so his status could still shift by Sunday. Hip injuries tend to affect burst and change of direction more than outright availability. Check the later practice reports before trusting his workload.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jakobi Meyers (WR) is questionable for JAX
Meyers is questionable for Jacksonville with a thumb injury after a limited practice Thursday. A thumb problem for a receiver usually affects catching and ball security more than speed, and being limited late in the week typically leans toward playing. If he sits, Jacksonville loses one of its steadier possession targets in the passing game.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jaylin Lane (WR) is questionable for WSH
Lane is questionable with a groin injury after being limited at Thursday's practice. That's a step up from sitting out, but there's no further detail on how he trended through the rest of the week. Check the final practice report before leaning on his snap count.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Mike Evans (WR) is questionable for SF
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said that Evans (hip) will "have to be managed this week" leading up to Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Behren Morton (QB) is inactive for NE
Morton is New England's third string quarterback, inactive by coach's decision and active only as the emergency arm behind the top two. That's a roster move, not a snap battle. It says nothing about who starts or how the passing game looks Sunday.
RED ZONEATL @ GB
ATL: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 85.7%
ATL's defense has allowed a score on half of red zone trips, GB has allowed scores on 85.7% of theirs, a 35.7-point gap. Only two games each, and an 85.7% red zone rate is extreme even for a small sample. GB's defense has clearly struggled to finish drives once teams get in close. A number that high after two games often settles back some, but right now it stands out as a real weakness.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB) is questionable for ATL
Robinson is questionable with an ankle injury after being limited in Monday's walkthrough, so he's working through something rather than sitting out entirely. A limited session this early in the week usually points to a game time call by Sunday. If his workload is capped against Green Bay, Atlanta's backfield touches shift elsewhere.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Malik Nabers (WR) is questionable for NYG
Nabers left Monday's game against the Rams with a right arm injury and was questionable to return in the moment, an in-game designation more than a season-long one. There's no severity detail yet, just that he was banged up and pulled from that game. Wait for a clearer update before factoring him into Sunday's game against Tennessee.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB) is questionable for NYG
Tracy's questionable tag is for an illness, not a physical injury, according to the team's coach, flagged at Wednesday's practice. Illness cases can clear by gameday or linger, and there's nothing here saying which way this one is trending. Check the next practice report before assuming he keeps his usual workload.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Caleb Douglas (WR) is questionable for MIA
Douglas is questionable after an ankle injury he sustained in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the 49ers, and head coach Jeff Hafley said Monday it's too early to tell how serious it is. Questionable this early in the week with the severity still unknown means his status could swing either way by Sunday. The practice reports later this week will matter more than this first tag.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jaylen Wright (RB) is questionable for MIA
Wright is questionable with a neck injury, labeled day-to-day heading into Week 3, which means his availability is still up in the air. There's no detail yet on severity or practice participation, so his workload stays unclear. Check the final injury report before counting on his snaps.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Brady Cook (QB) is inactive for MIA
Cook is officially out for Sunday, inactive by coach's decision, not injury. He's Miami's emergency third quarterback, a role that only sees the field if both quarterbacks ahead of him get hurt. There's no game plan weight behind this move.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Bo Melton (WR) is questionable for GB
Melton picked up a stinger and was questionable to return during Sunday's game, a single game issue rather than something that built up over time. Stingers can clear fast or linger depending on severity, and there's no further update given here on which way this one is trending. That leaves his practice status this week as the next real signal for Green Bay's receiving room.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Riley Leonard (QB) is inactive for IND
Leonard is officially out for tonight, inactive by coach's decision rather than injury. He's only in the building as Indy's emergency third quarterback, a role that only plays if both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. That means zero snap or game plan impact here.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ladd McConkey (WR) is questionable for LAC
McConkey is questionable with ribs, but the read from Schefter is that he's trending in the right direction as kickoff nears. That's a more optimistic questionable tag than most, leaning toward him playing rather than a coin flip. Playing through ribs can still affect how a receiver takes contact, so his snap count and route tree early will say more than the tag itself.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
DJ Moore (WR) is questionable for BUF
Moore is questionable after an AC joint sprain in his shoulder, an injury that ended his day early in last Thursday's win over Detroit. Buffalo is calling him day to day rather than attaching a firm timeline, which suggests the team isn't sure yet either. A shoulder issue like that can limit contact and physicality even if he suits up, so his workload against the Chargers may look different than a normal game.
RED ZONEKC @ MIA
KC: 5 red-zone trips per game to MIA's 2.5
KC is at 5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; MIA is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 3.47 over 17 games and MIA at 2.82 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kaelon Black (RB) is questionable for SF
Black is dealing with a groin injury but is on track to play Sunday, according to Adam Schefter. That's a positive signal this close to game day, though groin injuries can still limit burst and lateral movement even for an active player. If he's on the field, watch his early workload for signs San Francisco is easing him in before trusting a full role.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Carson Beck (QB) is inactive for ARI
Beck is Arizona's third string quarterback, inactive by coach's decision and listed only as the emergency arm against Seattle. It's a depth chart designation, not an injury, and doesn't touch Arizona's starting plan. Nothing about the passing game changes because of this.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Jalen Coker (WR) is questionable for CAR
Coker is questionable with an ankle injury and was limited in Thursday's practice, working through it rather than sitting out entirely. That's a real but manageable sign since limited is a step up from not practicing at all. His questionable tag heading into Sunday against Cleveland is one to check again as the week's final practice reports come in.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Taylen Green (QB) is inactive for CLE
Green is inactive too, again a coach's decision rather than an injury, serving as Cleveland's emergency third quarterback. Like King on the other side, this doesn't affect Cleveland's actual quarterback plan for Sunday. It's a roster designation, not a health story.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Rico Dowdle (RB) is questionable for PIT
Dowdle is questionable with a toe injury, but it checked out relatively okay after Tuesday's testing and he's considered day-to-day rather than a longer-term issue. A clean test result early in the week is a good sign, though the questionable tag means it isn't locked in yet. Watch the rest of the week's practice status before counting on his workload.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Haynes King (QB) is inactive for CAR
King is inactive, but this is a coach's decision rather than an injury, and he's still around as Carolina's emergency third quarterback. That means there's no missed time to track, just a game day roster call that keeps him off the active two deep. Nothing here changes Carolina's actual starting quarterback plan against Cleveland.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Cooper Kupp (WR) is questionable for SEA
Kupp is questionable with a back injury after being limited at Wednesday's practice. Limited is a step up from sitting out entirely, but there's no detail here on how he looked or trended afterward. His practice status later in the week will tell you more than this first report does.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCAR @ CLE
CAR: 6.7 yards per play to CLE's 5.25
Carolina's efficiency is coming from explosive plays, five gains of 20-plus yards in its last game, capped by a 55-yard pass to Xavier Legette. Cleveland's number leans on one big shot too, Deshaun Watson's 55-yard touchdown to Denzel Boston. Both are up from last season's much lower per-play marks, and a two-game sample built on splash plays can swing fast. Watch whether Carolina keeps hitting those deep shots or defenses close them off.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Quinn Ewers (QB) is inactive for JAX
Ewers is inactive by coach's decision, a healthy scratch behind Jacksonville's top two quarterbacks with no injury attached. It's a roster call for this week, not a change to the depth chart plan. It doesn't touch who starts under center Sunday.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Samaje Perine (RB) is questionable for CIN
Perine is questionable with a knee injury and did not practice at all Thursday. A full non-participation that late in the week is a real red flag, though the sheet doesn't say how it trended after that. Look for Friday's status before counting on his workload.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jadarian Price (RB) is questionable for SEA
Price is questionable after hurting his shoulder in Sunday's win at Arizona, though coach Mike Macdonald said the next day it's intact and nothing serious. A quick, downplaying comment like that from the coach usually points to him playing through it rather than missing time. The practice report will confirm it, but this reads more like a formality than a real threat to his workload.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) is questionable for NE
Henderson is questionable with an ankle injury, and coach Mike Vrabel said he'd do more at Wednesday's practice, a step up in workload. That kind of midweek increase usually points toward playing rather than sitting, though the questionable tag means it isn't locked in yet. Watch how he handles the rest of the week's practices before trusting him for a full workload against Jacksonville.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Cole Payton (QB) is inactive for PHI
Payton is a coach's decision inactive for Sunday, the standard designation for a third string quarterback on gameday. There's no injury attached, so this is just paperwork confirming he's not in the mix behind the top two quarterbacks.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tanner McKee (QB) is inactive for PHI
McKee (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Titans. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Zach Wilson (QB) is inactive for NO
Wilson is New Orleans' third string quarterback, inactive by coach's decision and there only as the emergency arm against Baltimore. No injury is involved, it's simply organizational depth behind the top two options. It has no bearing on New Orleans' quarterback plan for Sunday.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
J.K. Dobbins (RB) is questionable for DEN
Dobbins carries a hamstring tag, but word from inside the building is the injury is good heading into Sunday's game against the Rams. That's an upbeat description for a questionable label, more paperwork than real doubt. If he checks out, Denver's backfield should get its usual lead option back. The safer read here is a player trending toward active rather than one in real jeopardy.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Dareke Young (WR) is questionable for LV
Young banged up his hamstring during Sunday's game against the Chargers and was labeled questionable to return. That's an in-game designation rather than a pregame one, meaning the injury happened live instead of lingering from practice. If he doesn't return, Las Vegas' receiving snaps shift to whoever is already on the field for that series.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Joe Fagnano (QB) is inactive for BAL
Fagnano is Baltimore's third string quarterback, inactive by coach's decision and present only as the emergency arm against New Orleans. There's no injury tied to this, just normal roster construction behind the top two quarterbacks. It doesn't affect Baltimore's starting plan at all.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jalen McMillan (WR) is questionable for TB
McMillan is set to play Sunday against the Browns despite a knee injury, according to Adam Schefter, but he isn't expected to have a full time role yet. That means he's active without being locked into his normal snap count. Early in his return, his usage on the field matters more than the fact that he's simply active.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Ronnie Rivers (RB) is questionable for LAR
Rivers is banged up with a calf issue that ended his day early against the Giants, and that same injury has him tagged questionable heading into Denver. There's no update yet on practice participation, so this is shaping into a game time call. With just one data point here, there isn't enough on the sheet to gauge how big a role is at stake if he sits.
TRENCHESBAL @ DAL
BAL: 5.2 yards per rush attempt to DAL's 3.45
BAL is at 5.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 3.45 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 5.28 over 17 games and DAL at 4.59 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
HOU: 75.5 offensive plays per game to IND's 58
HOU is at 75.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; IND is at 58 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and IND at 59.9 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLV @ NO
LV: 13.5 points allowed per game to NO's 24
LV is at 13.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 25.4 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 59.5 penalty yards per game to NYJ's 102
The Jets are getting flagged for penalty yardage almost double their already high total from last season, and Detroit's number has also crept up from a year ago, just by less. Two games is a small sample for a stat this noisy, since a handful of bad flags can swing a per-game average fast. New York's jump is the bigger outlier here. Watch whether that penalty trouble sticks around or normalizes as the sample grows.
COVERAGENE @ JAX
NE: 4.7 yards per play allowed to JAX's 6.1
NE is allowing 4.7 yards a play, JAX is allowing 6.1, a 1.4 gap. Both are from two games, and yards per play is a broad number that takes real issues in the front or secondary to sit that high for a stretch. It points to JAX's defense giving up more consistent chunks than NE's has. Whether that holds up depends on how it looks as the sample grows.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSLAR @ DEN
LAR: 6.55 yards per play to DEN's 5.15
The Rams are moving the ball efficiently again, essentially continuing last season's strong per-play average, while Denver's number has dipped slightly from a year ago. Two games is a small sample, so Denver's dip could just reflect the fronts it's faced early. Los Angeles's steadiness lines up with an offense that already had this identity last season. Watch whether Denver's efficiency climbs back toward last season's level or the gap holds.
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Jackson Merrill: 1.168 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over his last 58 at bats Merrill has a 1.168 OPS, more than four tenths above his .750 season line, and his 26 home runs show the power is real. Two weeks is a big enough window to notice but still not the season. Against the Dodgers at a 1.5 total bases line, the season mark is the safer anchor if this cools.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Kyle Tucker: 1.303 OPS in Last 15 Days
Tucker's 1.303 OPS over his last 41 at bats is nearly six hundred points above his .727 season mark, a huge swing for two weeks. He's already got 17 home runs this season, so the power isn't coming out of nowhere. Forty one at bats is still a short window, and some cooling toward the season line is likely. With just a 0.5 total bases number tonight against the Dodgers, even a modest game gets it done.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKARI @ COL
Nolan Arenado: 1.298 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.298 OPS over 46 at bats is smoking hot, and it sits more than half a point above his .777 season mark. He has 27 home runs, so the power fits a player who can do this. Fifteen days and 46 at bats is short enough to swing hard either way, and the 1.5 total bases line carries real regression risk.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
STREAKHOU @ SEA
HOU games have gone UNDER 9 straight
The under has hit in nine straight Astros games, with actual scoring running about 7.9 runs a game against lines that averaged 9.2, a real gap between the number and the results. Tonight's total is set at 7.25, already much closer to that real scoring pace. That means the edge behind the streak is mostly priced in now, not sitting there untouched. A lower line here reads as the market catching up, not proof the under keeps winning by the same margin.
P final total 7 vs 7.25
STREAKLAA @ OAK
OAK have lost 6 straight
Oakland has dropped six straight and been outscored by 20 runs over that span, not a series of close losses. They're 3-7 over their last 10, so the slide runs deeper than just this streak. The Angels visit a team getting hammered on the scoreboard during the run. Anyone leaning against Oakland wants to see whether those losing margins stay wide or a home game tightens things up tonight.
P team won 7-9
COVERAGEHOU @ IND
HOU: 252.5 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 337.5
HOU is allowing 252.5 passing yards a game, IND has given up 337.5, an 85-yard gap. Two games each, so it's early, but 337.5 through the air is a heavy number regardless of who IND has faced. IND's pass defense looks like the clear soft spot here, and that's the kind of gap that stands out for anyone eyeing the passing game in this matchup.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 246 team passing yards per game to ARI's 179
ARI is at 179 team passing yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 246 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 232.6 over 17 games and SF at 244.5 over 17 games.
TRENCHESKC @ MIA
KC: 5.5 yards per rush attempt to MIA's 3.8
KC is at 5.5 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; MIA is at 3.8 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 4.29 over 17 games and MIA at 4.64 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSBAL @ DAL
BAL: 6.75 yards per play to DAL's 5.4
Baltimore is playing well above last season's per-play average, while Dallas has slipped from a number that was actually right in line with Baltimore's a year ago. Two games is a small sample, so Baltimore's jump could ease once it faces tougher defenses. The gap between these two is new, since last season they were almost identical. Watch whether Baltimore's efficiency holds up or both numbers drift back toward last season's closer range.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
SEA: 7.65 yards per pass attempt to WSH's 5.3
Seattle is still averaging a strong number through the air, just a touch below last season's pace, while Washington's yards per attempt have dropped more noticeably from a year ago. Two games is early, so both numbers have room to move as the schedule turns over. Seattle's number reads as closer to its established level, while Washington's is a real step back. Watch whether Washington's passing efficiency climbs back toward last season or the dip continues.
PLATOON EDGESTL @ PIT
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Jared Jones (RHP)
Burleson has hit right handers hard this season, a .934 OPS in 398 at-bats, well ahead of his .552 mark against lefties in 188 tries. Jared Jones is a right hander tonight and Burleson hits third, right where that split works in his favor. That's a full season of at-bats on each side, not a short sample, so it looks like a real read on him. The order and the matchup point the same direction for his production tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 38:13 time of possession per game to DET's 31:33
NYJ is at 38:13 time of possession per game over 2 games; DET is at 31:33 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 28:15 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
TEN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NYG's 50%
TEN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; NYG is at 50% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 45.7% over 17 games and NYG at 46.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
ATL: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to GB's 0%
ATL is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; GB is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 50% over 17 games and GB at 56% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to SEA's 50%
Washington has converted every fourth-down try so far, building on a number that was already solid last season, while Seattle's conversion rate has dropped from a year ago. With only two games played, this is a handful of attempts at most, so the rates can move fast either direction. Washington's perfect mark is the more fragile of the two since it has less room to stay that high. Expect both numbers to drift back toward last season's levels as more fourth downs get played.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 50% third-down conversion rate to LV's 33.3%
LV is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; NO is at 50% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 33.8% over 17 games and NO at 39.5% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
PHI: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 50%
PHI is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; CHI is at 50% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 52.4% over 17 games and CHI at 51.7% over 17 games.
HEAT CHECKMIA @ CHC
Jakob Marsee: 1.164 OPS in Last 15 Days
Marsee's 1.164 OPS over 48 at bats is nearly a half point above his .707 season line, and with only 11 home runs on the year that baseline is modest. Fifteen days of at bats is real but short, and gaps this size tend to shrink. Against the Cubs at a 1.5 total bases line, the season track record says this pace is unlikely to hold.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ LAD
Mookie Betts: 1.221 OPS in Last 15 Days
Betts is at 1.221 over 47 at bats, well above his .779 season line, and his 22 home runs say the power has been there all year. Fifteen days is a real window but a fraction of the season. At a 1.5 total bases line against the Padres, the hot stretch is the angle and the season mark is the fallback.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDNYM @ TEX
Rangers 6-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 8 starts
Six wins in eight is his full season mark, folding in his own work along with the offense and bullpen around him. Two losses leaves the sample small enough that one or two results could shift it. He starts at home against the Mets, with the 6-2 log as the number going in.
TEAM RECORDTB @ NYY
Rays 6-2 in Nick Martinez's last 8 starts
Six wins in eight starts is his full season, so it leans on his own outings plus the offense and bullpen behind him. Two losses in eight leaves room to move with one or two results. He faces the Yankees tonight, and the 6-2 log is the number to weigh.
TEAM RECORDSTL @ PIT
Pirates 2-6 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts
Two wins in eight starts is his entire season rather than a bad recent run, so it points to a broader pattern in his games. Eight outings is a small sample and a couple of different results change the picture. He is home against St. Louis tonight with that 2-6 mark as the backdrop.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-3 vs Padres this season
Ten games is a real season series, so LA has held the clear edge in this rivalry. San Diego won the last meeting 5-2, and nothing here covers pitching matchups or venues, so the record does not tie to tonight. That last result is a reminder this series turns game to game.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Oscar Delp (TE) is questionable for NO
Delp (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice for the second straight day Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Malik Hooker (S) is doubtful for DAL
Hooker is doubtful for Dallas's safety spot against the Ravens, with no other detail on the injury type behind the tag. Doubtful typically means the team expects him out, so plan on Dallas's secondary rotating reps behind him.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ KC
White Sox are 7-3 vs Royals this season
Ten games is a solid season series, so Chicago has had the better of this matchup most of the year. The Royals took the last meeting 5-4, and no starters or venue splits are given to explain the edge. A gap like this can close fast against a division rival, especially right after a loss.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Nick Muse (TE) is questionable for ATL
Muse (shoulder) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Eli Raridon (TE) is questionable for NE
Raridon (thigh) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
George Kittle (TE) is questionable for SF
Kittle (Achilles) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Juwan Johnson (TE) is questionable for NO
Johnson (illness) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 17.
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ DAL
BAL @ DAL carries a 52.5 market total
The 52.5 total on Ravens at Cowboys is the highest on the board, 9 points above the 43.5 median across the 16 games with totals posted tonight. A gap that size usually means the market expects this one to score easily. Nothing else on the sheet explains why, so the number itself is the story, and any movement toward kickoff will say more about whether it holds than the static line does.
HEAT CHECKCIN @ ATL
Elly De La Cruz: 1.278 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.278 OPS over 50 at bats is nearly four tenths above a .881 season mark that was already strong. He has 28 home runs, so this is a good hitter running hotter. Two weeks is a solid sample, and at a 1.5 total bases line against Atlanta the season baseline supports the hot stretch.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 2 BB
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 80% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 33.3%
KC is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 75% over 17 games and MIA at 47.8% over 17 games.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ KC
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Grichuk has mashed left handed pitching this season, a .979 OPS in 157 at-bats, well ahead of the .644 he has against righties in 91 tries. Daniel Lynch IV starts as a lefty tonight and Grichuk hits third, right where that split favors him. 157 at-bats is a solid sample for one season, a real strength rather than a short run. A lefty on the mound with Grichuk in the 3-hole is the matchup where that split should matter most.
P 4-for-5, 9 TB
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCIN @ PIT
CIN: 5.05 yards per play to PIT's 3.8
CIN is at 5.05 yards per play over 2 games; PIT is at 3.8 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 5.23 over 17 games and PIT at 5.22 over 17 games. CIN had 4 plays of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 32-yard pass for a touchdown (Ja'Marr Chase 32 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)); 23-yard pass (Pass Complete for 23 Yds to Tee Higgins); 23-yard pass (Joe Burrow Pass Complete for 23 Yds to Tee Higgins). PIT had 1 play of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 26-yard pass (Aaron Rodgers Pass Complete for 26 Yds to Jaylen Warren).
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper's line against right handers, a 1.003 OPS in 339 at-bats, sits well above his .668 mark against lefties in 215 at-bats. Tonight's starter Dustin May throws right handed, the hand Harper hits best. That's a full season split on both sides, a real number to lean on rather than a short run. A right hander on the mound is the shape of matchup where that platoon edge should show up most.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BOS
Jo Adell (bats R) hits 4th against Payton Tolle (LHP)
Adell has been excellent against lefties this season, a .979 OPS in 157 at-bats, far better than the .591 he has hit against righties in 424 tries. Payton Tolle is a left hander tonight and Adell hits cleanup, right where that platoon split favors him. 157 at-bats is a decent sample for one season, a real strength rather than noise. A lefty starter with Adell batting fourth is the matchup where his platoon numbers should carry the most weight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
J.J. McCarthy (QB) is inactive for MIN
McCarthy (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Vikings' emergency third quarterback against the Packers on Sunday, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Malik Muhammad II (CB) is questionable for CHI
Muhammad (ankle) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB) is questionable for CHI
Stevenson suffered a hamstring injury during Sunday's 9-3 loss to the Vikings. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Will McDonald IV (DE) is questionable for NYJ
McDonald (ankle) logged a limited practice Friday and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Sep 18.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 43.5% third-down conversion rate to CLE's 28.6%
CAR is at 43.5% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; CLE is at 28.6% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 36.1% over 17 games and CLE at 33.6% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Tyson Campbell (CB) is questionable for CLE
Campbell exited last week's 23-19 win over Tampa Bay with an ankle and hip issue and never returned to the game. That in-game removal is why he carries a questionable tag now, one game removed from the injury, heading into Carolina. He's a starting cornerback, so a limited or missing Campbell means more snaps for whoever fills in behind him outside. This is a name to check closer to game day given how fresh the injury still is.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Elgton Jenkins (C) is questionable for CLE
Jenkins is working through a back injury that limited him in Thursday's practice. A single limited session doesn't confirm much on its own, but it puts him on the questionable track heading into the Panthers game. He anchors Cleveland's interior line at center, so a real absence would be a shakeup up front for pass protection and the run game.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Derius Davis (WR) is questionable for LAC
Davis picked up an undisclosed injury during the 26-14 loss to the Cardinals and has been day-to-day since. With the injury type not disclosed, there isn't much to read beyond that he's banged up and unconfirmed for this one. He's a depth piece in the passing game, so his absence would shuffle snaps rather than reshape the game plan.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Robert Beal Jr. (DE) is questionable for MIA
Beal was banged up during Sunday's game against the 49ers, a hamstring issue that had him questionable to return in that contest. That in-game tag is why he now carries a questionable label heading into Miami's game with Kansas City. He's part of Miami's edge rush group, so a missed game would mean more reps for the rest of the rotation. There isn't more detail on the sheet, so this one leans toward a game time call as kickoff nears.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Joey Porter Jr. (CB) is questionable for PIT
Porter will be evaluated Wednesday for a back injury he aggravated during practice last week, Alan Saunders of SteelersNow.com reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable for NYG
Banks has already been downgraded to inactive because of a calf injury, a firmer absence than a typical game-time call. That report came Sep 21, and he's a starting cornerback for the Giants, so missing time there affects the secondary regardless of who fills in. He's back to questionable for this one, so check his practice status before kickoff.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Romello Height (DE) is questionable for SF
Height will undergo hand surgery Tuesday, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reported Monday. Reported Sep 22.
BATTER VS ARMHOU @ SEA
Logan Gilbert vs Jeremy Pena: 1-for-25, 6 K
Jeremy Pena has one hit in 25 career at bats against Logan Gilbert, with six strikeouts and a .117 OPS. That's a 25 at bat body of work, not a single game, so it carries real signal. Gilbert has controlled this matchup for years and nothing here suggests Pena has found an answer recently. Anyone leaning on Pena to produce tonight is betting against a long, lopsided history in this exact matchup.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTB @ NYY
Yandy Diaz: .444 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .444 OPS over 50 at bats is a big drop from his .807 season mark, a fall of 0.363. Two weeks is small enough that one cold stretch swings it, and the season line is nearly double the recent number. Weight the .807 far more heavily than the last two weeks in this Rays at Yankees series.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
COOLING OFFSD @ LAD
Freddie Freeman: .402 OPS in Last 15 Days
Freeman's .402 OPS over 45 at bats is about four tenths below his .806 season mark. Two and a half weeks is thin enough that a handful of bad nights carry the whole number. His season line sits twice as high, so the season mark is the stronger signal against San Diego.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Greg Newsome II (CB) is questionable for NYG
Newsome is questionable with a rib injury after being limited at Thursday's practice, an early-week issue that had several days to heal before kickoff. Rib injuries often look worse than they play, and a limited rather than missed practice suggests he's trending toward playing. The report dates to Sep 17, so there's been time for his status to improve since then.
RED ZONELAR @ DEN
LAR: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to DEN's 42.9%
The Rams scoring on 66.7 percent of red zone trips is close to last season's 63.2, so this looks like a real, sustained strength. Denver's 42.9 percent is a sharp fall from last year's 57.9, pointing to real trouble finishing drives rather than a matchup quirk. Two games is a small sample, so Denver has more room to bounce back up than Los Angeles has to fall. Bettors should expect the Rams to keep converting red zone chances while Denver's finishing ability stays the bigger question.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG: 20 first downs per game to TEN's 12.5
New York's 20 first downs a game matches last season's 20.4, so this looks like an established identity, not a hot start. Tennessee's 12.5 is down from 15.4 a year ago, a real step back rather than just a tough two-game slate. That season-over-season drop makes Tennessee's number more believable than a small-sample fluke. Bettors can treat the Giants as the side that reliably sustains drives until Tennessee shows it can move the chains again.
COVERAGEPHI @ CHI
PHI: 166 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 240
PHI is giving up 166 passing yards a game through two games, CHI is giving up 240, a 74 yard gap. Both numbers come from just two games, so a single shootout can shift them fast. Chicago's early pass defense has been the shakier of the two, while Philadelphia has looked tight through the air so far. Bettors should watch whether that gap holds as each defense faces more passing attacks before building a number around it.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
HOU: 28 points allowed per game to IND's 37
HOU is at 28 points allowed per game over 2 games; IND is at 37 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and IND at 24.2 over 17 games.
RED ZONENYJ @ DET
NYJ: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 90%
NYJ is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DET is at 90% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
RED ZONESEA @ WSH
WSH: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to SEA's 42.9%
SEA is at 42.9% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; WSH is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 54.2% over 17 games and WSH at 65.2% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable for NO
Coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Emerson is "day-to-day" after injuring his shoulder in Week 2 at Baltimore, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Chase Young (DE) is questionable for NO
Young (calf), who is listed questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Andrew Thomas (OT) is questionable for NYG
Thomas (groin) is questionable to return to Monday's game against the Rams, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Sam Ehlinger (QB) is inactive for DEN
Ehlinger is inactive as a coach's decision rather than for injury reasons, and he'll serve strictly as Denver's emergency third quarterback. That report is from Sep 14, so it's roster business with no recovery timeline attached. Expect the Broncos to run their normal quarterback plan with Ehlinger staying on the sideline in the emergency role.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Dorance Armstrong (DE) is questionable for WSH
Armstrong (knee) was a limited participant at the Commanders' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Samson Ebukam (DE) is questionable for ATL
Ebukam (hamstring) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Panthers, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
STREAKSD @ LAD
SD have won 5 straight
San Diego's five game winning streak comes with a plus 24 run differential, meaning these wins have mostly been comfortable, not nail biters. Their last 10 games sit at 9-1, so the hot stretch covers almost their entire recent schedule. The Dodgers tonight are a real step up from whatever they've been beating, the actual test of whether this run holds. Watch whether that scoring margin shrinks against tougher competition instead of assuming it stays this wide.
P team lost 0-7
PASS RUSHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 2 sacks taken per game to CLE's 3.5
CAR is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; CLE is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 2.19 over 17 games and CLE at 3 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Troy Fautanu (OT) is questionable for PIT
Fautanu (ankle) is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game at New England, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Mansoor Delane (CB) is questionable for KC
Delane is questionable with a shoulder injury heading into Sunday's game against the Colts. The sheet doesn't include a practice detail, just the official designation. He's part of Kansas City's cornerback group, so any missed time nudges snaps to whoever is next on the depth chart. With this little detail, it's shaping up as a game time call heading into kickoff.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Garrett Nussmeier (QB) is inactive for KC
Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Monday night's game against the Broncos. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Charvarius Ward (CB) is questionable for IND
Ward is dealing with groin tightness that showed up after Sunday night's 33-30 overtime loss to the Chiefs, a game that likely piled up extra snaps given the extra period. Tightness after a long game often clears with a few days of rest, so this reads more like a maintenance tag than a serious issue. He's a starting corner for Indianapolis, so a missed game would mean more work for the backups outside. Keep this one on the radar as a game time type call rather than a real doubt.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Francis Mauigoa (OT) is questionable for NYG
Mauigoa is working through a shoulder injury and was limited at Friday's practice, which is why he carries a questionable tag instead of a clean bill of health. For an offensive tackle, a limited week often points to managed reps rather than something serious enough to sit him. The report is from Sep 19, leaving time for his status to firm up, so check the final injury report before assuming either way.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
D.J. Reed (CB) is questionable for DET
Reed is questionable with a foot injury heading into Thursday's game against Buffalo. There's no practice detail supplied beyond the tag itself, so it's hard to read how serious this one is. He's a starting cornerback, so any absence opens up snaps in Detroit's secondary. It's also a short week, which tends to make these calls tighter to game time.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jack Jones (CB) is questionable for SF
Jones (foot) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Jawaan Taylor (OT) is questionable for ATL
Taylor (ribs) was listed as limited on the Falcons' estimated injury report Monday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jalen Milroe (QB) is inactive for SEA
Milroe (coach's decision) will be the emergency third quarterback for the Wednesday night matchup with the Patriots. Reported Sep 9.
PASS RUSHNE @ JAX
JAX: 1.5 sacks taken per game to NE's 3
NE is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 3 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHARI @ SF
SF: 0 sacks taken per game to ARI's 1.5
ARI is at 1.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; SF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 3.69 over 17 games and SF at 1.8 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHBAL @ DAL
DAL: 1 sacks taken per game to BAL's 2.5
BAL is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DAL is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 2.65 over 17 games and DAL at 2.38 over 17 games.
COOLING OFFTB @ NYY
Yandy Diaz: .444 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty at bats at a .444 OPS is a big step down from Diaz's .807 season mark, a drop of 0.363. Two weeks of games is a window small enough that one cold stretch swings it, and his season line is nearly double the recent number. In this Rays at Yankees series, the .807 is the better guide to who he is at the plate.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
PASS RUSHLAR @ DEN
LAR: 0.5 sacks taken per game to DEN's 2
LAR is at 0.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and DEN at 1.77 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Lukas Van Ness (DE) is questionable for GB
Van Ness (concussion) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Wes Hodkiewicz reports. Reported Sep 18.
PASS RUSHATL @ GB
GB: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to ATL's 2
GB's defense is averaging 3.5 sacks a game, ATL sits at 2. Two games each, but sack rate is one of the more repeatable defensive numbers early in a season. If GB's front has been winning up front, that edge carries real weight against ATL's protection this week.
PASS RUSHHOU @ IND
HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to IND's 2
HOU's defense is averaging 3.5 sacks a game, IND is at 2. Only two games each, but pass rush numbers tend to hold up better early than most defensive stats. That gap points to HOU's front having an edge in this matchup, though two games is still a limited look.
PASS RUSHBAL @ DAL
BAL: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1
BAL is averaging 2.5 sacks a game, DAL is at 1. Only two games each, but pass rush tends to hold up better early than stats like takeaways. That points to BAL's front having an edge in getting after the quarterback this week, even with the sample still small.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Cameron Jordan (DE) is questionable for NO
Jordan (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Ronnie Stanley (OT) is questionable for BAL
Stanley's toe injury first came up during a game against the Saints, when he was questionable to return mid-game, so this has been a lingering issue rather than something brand new. That report landed Sep 20, and he carries the questionable tag again heading into this one. For a starting left tackle, any limitation changes how Baltimore handles protection on that side.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (DE) is questionable for MIN
Ingram-Dawkins hurt his hip in Week 2 at Chicago and is now considered day-to-day, per his coach, pointing to a short-term issue rather than a long absence. That update came Sep 22, so his practice participation this week should tell the real story. A day-to-day tag on a defensive lineman usually means the team expects him back soon rather than shutting him down for a while.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Brian O'Neill (OT) is questionable for MIN
O'Neill is questionable with a knee injury, which for a starting tackle is a real snap-count question rather than a formality. The report is from Sep 19, so watch whether his practice participation moves up or down as the week closes. If he's out, Minnesota's protection on that side falls to whoever backs him up, though that name isn't included here.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Max Melton (CB) is questionable for ARI
Melton (toe) is considered to be day-to-day ahead of Week 3, Howard Balzer of USA Today reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Cole Van Lanen (OT) is questionable for JAX
Van Lanen (knee) was limited at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Miller Moss (QB) is inactive for CHI
The Bears signed Moss to the practice squad and elevated him to the active roster Saturday. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Cooper DeJean (CB) is questionable for PHI
Dejean (calf) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
COOLING OFFSTL @ PIT
Jordan Walker: .372 OPS in Last 15 Days
.372 over the last 42 at bats is more than four tenths off his .806 season line, and that stretch covers about three weeks. A cold run swings a sample this small hard. Given how far off his norm this is, it likely bends back toward his usual production against Pittsburgh.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TRENCHESCIN @ PIT
CIN: 74.5 rushing yards allowed per game to PIT's 128
CIN is allowing just 74.5 rushing yards a game, PIT is letting teams average 128, a 53.5-yard gap. Two games each, so it's an early read, but that's a wide split in how the two fronts have handled the run. CIN's run defense looks like the stronger of the two so far, a real factor if PIT tries to lean on the ground game.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Dre'Mont Jones (DE) is questionable for NE
Jones (shoulder) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
STREAKCLE @ BOS
CLE have won 5 straight
Cleveland has won five straight, outscoring teams by 13 runs over that stretch. They're 7-3 over their last 10 games. That kind of run margin points to more than just close wins piling up.
P team won 3-2
COVERAGEPHI @ CHI
PHI: 5.05 yards per play allowed to CHI's 6.25
PHI is allowing 5.05 yards per play through two games, CHI is allowing 6.25, a 1.2 yard gap in overall defensive efficiency. That's a two-game sample for both sides, early enough that one big play swings it. Philadelphia has been the more efficient defense so far this season. Bettors should treat the edge as an early read rather than a proven form heading into more games.
RED ZONEKC @ MIA
KC: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 88.9%
KC is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; MIA is at 88.9% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TRENCHESCAR @ CLE
CAR: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to CLE's 2.95
CAR is at 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; CLE is at 2.95 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 4.16 over 17 games and CLE at 3.9 over 17 games.
RED ZONETEN @ NYG
TEN: 71.4% red-zone scoring allowed to NYG's 100%
TEN has allowed a score on 71.4% of red zone trips defended, NYG has allowed one on every single trip, 100% through two games. A perfect red zone rate against is one of the least stable numbers in football and usually comes down once the sample grows. Tennessee's own mark isn't strong either, giving up scores on more than seven of every ten trips. Bettors watching red zone markets in this matchup should expect New York's number to soften rather than hold.
RED ZONENE @ JAX
NE: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to JAX's 28.6%
NE hasn't allowed a single red zone score through two games, a flat 0%, while JAX has let opponents score on 28.6% of trips. A shutout red zone number over two games is an extreme outlier and one of the hardest marks in football to sustain. New England has been excellent once teams get inside the twenty so far. Bettors should price in some regression for that number rather than expect it to stay at zero.
COOLING OFFMIN @ SF
Royce Lewis: .355 OPS in L15, draws RHP Anthony Molina
Lewis's .355 OPS over his last 47 at bats is down even further from an already low .670 season mark. He draws right hander Anthony Molina tonight, and RHP is his weaker side at a .655 OPS across 316 at bats, a much larger sample pointing the same direction. Forty seven at bats is a real sample size sitting on top of a season that was already soft. This reads as a tough season meeting an unfavorable matchup rather than a short slump.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Andre Pallante (RHP), batting 2nd
Lowe has a .915 OPS against right handers this season in 380 at-bats, well above the .635 he has against lefties in 185 tries. Andre Pallante is a right hander tonight and Lowe hits second, a spot that lines up with his stronger side. That gap comes from a full season on both sides, a real read on him rather than a blended number. A righty starter with Lowe batting second is where the split should matter most.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
PHI: 0 fumbles lost per game to CHI's 1
PHI is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 0.47 over 17 games and CHI at 0.24 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSKC @ MIA
KC: 6.3 yards per play to MIA's 5.15
Kansas City's 6.3 yards a play is a real jump from last season's 5.05, while Miami's 5.15 sits close to its 5.4 mark a year ago. The Chiefs lean on explosive passing, five 20-plus plays in their last game with Mahomes hitting Thornton for 45 and Rice for 31 and 30. Miami's number leans on one 77-yard touchdown, so it is thinner than it looks. Two games in, Kansas City's jump looks like real quarterback play rather than a soft opponent.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DAL
BAL: 8.65 yards per pass attempt to DAL's 6.6
BAL is at 8.65 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 6.6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and DAL at 7 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCIN @ PIT
CIN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to PIT's 1.5
CIN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 1.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.88 over 17 games.
HEAT CHECKTB @ NYY
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.270 OPS in Last 15 Days
The same 1.270 over 38 at bats sits well above his .825 season average, with 14 home runs behind it. Thirty eight at bats is a two week sample, so expect some cooling toward the season mark. Tonight's total bases line is 2.5 against the Yankees, a much tougher number that usually needs an extra base hit.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TURNOVERSCIN @ PIT
CIN: 0 fumbles lost per game to PIT's 1
CIN is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 0.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.35 over 17 games.
HEAT CHECKTB @ NYY
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.270 OPS in Last 15 Days
A 1.270 OPS over 38 at bats is more than four tenths above his .825 season mark, and 14 home runs back the power. Thirty eight at bats is short, so some cooling is reasonable. The total bases line is 0.5 against the Yankees, a low bar for a bat running this hot.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 0 fumbles lost per game to LAC's 1
LAC is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 0.41 over 17 games and BUF at 0.53 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jalen Carter (DT) is questionable for PHI
Carter (wrist) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
COVERAGETEN @ NYG
TEN: 5.25 yards per play allowed to NYG's 6.35
TEN is allowing 5.25 yards per play through two games, NYG is allowing 6.35, a 1.1 yard gap. That's a two-game sample for both sides, early enough to move with one big offensive game. Tennessee's defense has been the tighter one on a per snap basis so far. Bettors should watch whether that gap holds as each team faces more offenses before building a total around it.
COVERAGENE @ JAX
NE: 166 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 236.5
NE is allowing 166 passing yards a game through two games, JAX is allowing 236.5, a 70.5 yard gap. Both numbers come from just two games, early evidence rather than a settled form. New England's secondary has been stingy through the air so far this season, Jacksonville's has not. Bettors should treat the gap as a real early signal while remembering two games can shift fast with one big passing performance against it.
COVERAGEBAL @ DAL
BAL: 4.7 yards per play allowed to DAL's 5.8
BAL is at 4.7 yards per play allowed over 2 games; DAL is at 5.8 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Kiko Mauigoa (LB) is questionable for NYJ
Mauigoa (quadriceps) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
TB: 184.5 team passing yards per game to MIN's 129.5
MIN is at 129.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; TB is at 184.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 166.7 over 17 games and TB at 205.9 over 17 games.
HEAT CHECKMIL @ PHI
Brice Turang: 1.214 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turang's 1.214 OPS over 40 at bats is better than four tenths above his .803 season average, and 19 home runs show the pop is real. Forty at bats is a decent but small piece of a season. Against the Phillies the total bases line is 0.5, plenty of margin even if the pace slows.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is questionable for GB
Cooper (shoulder) was listed as a limited participant on the Packers' estimated injury report Monday. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Derwin James Jr. (S) is questionable for LAC
James (hand) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against the Raiders. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ty Johnson (RB) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists Ty Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Cole Bishop (S) is questionable for BUF
Bishop (groin) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Lions. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Nick Scott (S) is questionable for CAR
Scott has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Falcons due to an abdominal injury, Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Claudin Cherelus (LB) is questionable for CAR
Cherelus (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons, Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Trevis Gipson (LB) is questionable for CAR
Gipson is being evaluated for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
ARI (1-1) at SF (2-0), a division game
SF is unbeaten and plus 42 on the season, a big scoring margin for two games. ARI is 1-1 and down 12, coming off a loss. Both sides have already played this exact spot once, ARI winning on the road and SF winning at home, so neither split is new. It's still just two games each in a division matchup, but the size of the gap lines up with how each team has actually played.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN (2-0) at PIT (1-1), a division game
CIN is 2-0 and outscoring people by 20 on the year, while PIT is 1-1 and down 10. CIN's win already came on the road, and PIT's only win came at home, so both marks line up with a two-game sample. That's thin enough to shift fast, especially in a division game where familiarity narrows gaps. PIT protecting its home floor is the more concrete thing to watch than the raw scoring gap.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Jamien Sherwood (LB) is questionable for NYJ
Sherwood is dealing with a knee injury and was limited at Wednesday's practice, which is why he's questionable rather than clear. That report is from Sep 16, early in the week, leaving time for his participation to change before the final report. A limited rather than missed practice that early is usually a decent early sign for a linebacker's chances of playing.
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ NYY
Rays are 6-3 vs Yankees this season
Nine meetings is a decent sample, so this is not one series deciding the picture. The Yankees' last win came by a wide 12-4 margin. That single score sits against six Tampa Bay wins, so it does not erase the season edge on its own.
RED ZONELAC @ BUF
LAC: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to BUF's 77.8%
LAC has allowed a score on half its red zone trips defended, BUF has allowed one on 77.8% of theirs, a 27.8 point gap. Both are two-game samples, so the exact rates will move as more games get logged. Buffalo's defense has been the leakier of the two once teams get inside the twenty. Bettors eyeing red zone and goal to go markets in this matchup should lean more on Buffalo's early softness than treat either number as settled.
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ NYY
Rays are 6-3 vs Yankees this season
Nine meetings is enough to call this a real trend, and Tampa Bay has won more often than not. New York's last win was a 12-4 blowout, and no pitching or park detail explains the split. One lopsided score against six wins does not erase the season pattern.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Kene Nwangwu (RB) is questionable for NYJ
Nwangwu is questionable on the Jets' injury report, but no specific injury or practice detail comes with the Sep 22 listing itself. That leaves little to go on, so this is one to check again closer to kickoff rather than lean on now.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Nico Collins (WR) is questionable for HOU
Collins is questionable on Houston's injury report, but no specific injury or practice detail is included beyond the Sep 22 listing itself. That's thin information to work with, so this one is best treated as unresolved until a clearer update lands before kickoff.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
DJ Giddens (RB) is questionable for IND
Giddens is questionable on Indianapolis's injury report, with no specific injury or practice detail given beyond the Sep 22 listing. That leaves little to go on, so check for a fuller update before assuming how much backfield work shifts.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Ashton Dulin (WR) is questionable for IND
IND lists Ashton Dulin as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chris Jones (DT) is questionable for KC
Jones (calf) is expected to play against the Colts on Sunday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Cedric Gray (LB) is questionable for TEN
Gray (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice but is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Micah McFadden (LB) is questionable for NYG
McFadden (neck) is inactive for Monday's game against the Rams, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Brian Burns (LB) is questionable for NYG
Burns (ankle) did not return to Monday's game against the Rams, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) is questionable for PIT
PIT lists Michael Pittman Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Nick Emmanwori (S) is questionable for SEA
Emmanwori (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Brandon Pili (DT) is questionable for SEA
Pili (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Odafe Oweh (LB) is questionable for WSH
Oweh (calf) was a limited participant at the Commanders' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Javon Kinlaw (DT) is questionable for WSH
Head coach Dan Quinn told reporters Monday that Kinlaw will have an MRI for a shoulder injury, JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Nick Cross (S) is questionable for WSH
Cross (undisclosed) stayed in Dallas overnight Sunday due to an internal injury, and his status for Week 3 against the Seahawks is up in the air, Ben Standig of Big 100 Washington D.C. reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Robert Spillane (LB) is questionable for NE
Spillane (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Dell Pettus (S) is questionable for NE
Pettus (ankle) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Craig Woodson (S) is questionable for NE
Woodson (shoulder) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Foyesade Oluokun (LB) is questionable for JAX
Oluokun (wrist) was a limited participant at practice Thursday. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
DaVon Hamilton (DT) is questionable for JAX
Hamilton (back) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Jaguars. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S) is questionable for ARI
Taylor-Demerson (ribs) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jack Gibbens (LB) is questionable for ARI
Gibbens (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Roy Lopez (DT) is questionable for ARI
Lopez (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Omar Speights (LB) is questionable for LAR
Speights (hip) was a limited participant at practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Jordan Whittington (WR) is questionable for LAR
LAR lists Jordan Whittington as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) is questionable for DEN
DEN lists Marvin Mims Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
RJ Harvey (RB) is questionable for DEN
DEN lists RJ Harvey as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
COVERAGEHOU @ IND
HOU: 6.2 yards per play allowed to IND's 7.3
HOU is at 6.2 yards per play allowed over 2 games; IND is at 7.3 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Andrew Mukuba (S) is questionable for PHI
Mukuba (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Tennessee. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Xavier Woods (S) is questionable for CHI
Woods (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice session. Reported Sep 16.
PACE & SCRIPTNE @ JAX
JAX: 23.5 points per game to NE's 15
NE is at 15 points per game over 2 games; JAX is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 28.8 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.
COOLING OFFNYM @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran: .436 OPS in Last 15 Days
Duran's .436 over 50 at bats is 0.319 below his .755 season line. Two weeks of soft contact or bad matchups pulls a number down fast. The season line is the stronger read against the Mets.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIA @ CHC
Kyle Stowers: .451 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .451 OPS over 50 at bats is 0.322 below Stowers' .773 season line. Two weeks is small enough that one quiet stretch drags the number down without saying much. The .773 mark is the better description of him at the plate, and against the Cubs the recent number should drift back toward it.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Nate Landman (LB) is questionable for LAR
Landman is dealing with a shoulder injury and was set for a limited session at Saturday's practice, which is why he's questionable for this game. The report is from Sep 19, close to game day, so there wasn't much time left for his status to change afterward. A limited practice that late in the week for a linebacker usually still points toward playing, barring a setback.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Treydan Stukes (S) is questionable for LV
Stukes (head) is being evaluated for a potential concussion after exiting Sunday's game against the Chargers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Trey Hendrickson (LB) is questionable for BAL
Hendrickson has been diagnosed with a broken finger but is expected to suit up with a cast on his hand for Sunday's game against the Saints, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Zay Flowers (WR) is questionable for BAL
Flowers is questionable on Baltimore's injury report, but no specific injury or practice detail comes with the Sep 22 listing. That's not much to build on, so check this one again as the injury report firms up before kickoff.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Miles Killebrew (S) is questionable for TB
Killebrew (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jauan Jennings (WR) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Jauan Jennings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Andrew Van Ginkel (LB) is questionable for MIN
Van Ginkel (chest) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Blake Cashman (LB) is questionable for MIN
Cashman is working through a wrist injury and was limited at Wednesday's practice, which is why he's questionable for this one. The report is from Sep 16, early enough in the week that his participation could still change by the final injury report. A wrist issue for a linebacker often isn't much of a limiter once he's out there, so the practice trend matters more than the injury itself.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ PHI
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Turang's line against right handers, a .889 OPS in 389 at-bats, sits well above his .603 mark against lefties in 168 at-bats. Tonight's starter Zack Wheeler throws right handed, the hand Turang hits best. That's a full season of at-bats on each side, a real split rather than a short run. A right hander on the mound is the shape of matchup where that platoon edge should show up.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TRENCHESARI @ SF
SF: 134.5 rushing yards per game to ARI's 93
ARI is at 93 rushing yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 134.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 93.1 over 17 games and SF at 106.9 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Devonte Wyatt (DT) is questionable for GB
Wyatt (ankle) was a limited participant at the Packers' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Anthony Campbell (DT) is questionable for GB
Campbell (ankle) was listed as a non-participant in Monday's estimated practice report, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Brandon Dorlus (DT) is questionable for ATL
Dorlus (thumb) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Divine Deablo (LB) is questionable for ATL
Deablo was added to the Falcons' injury report and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers due to an illness, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 5.95 yards per pass attempt to PIT's 4.05
CIN is at 5.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; PIT is at 4.05 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 5.81 over 17 games and PIT at 5.99 over 17 games.
COVERAGEATL @ GB
ATL: 33.3% third downs allowed to GB's 47.1%
ATL is holding opponents to a 33.3% third down conversion rate, GB is allowing 47.1%, a 13.7 point gap. Both marks come from two games, small enough to move with a single tough or easy slate of third downs. Atlanta's defense has been sharp on money downs early, Green Bay's has let teams move the chains far more often. Bettors tracking third down efficiency in this matchup should watch whether Atlanta's number holds as the sample grows.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
GB: 6 yards per pass attempt to ATL's 4.1
ATL is at 4.1 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; GB is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 6.21 over 17 games and GB at 6.85 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 45.5% third-down conversion rate to NE's 32.1%
NE is at 32.1% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; JAX is at 45.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 42.9% over 17 games and JAX at 39.2% over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
IND: 26.5 points per game to HOU's 18.5
HOU is at 18.5 points per game over 2 games; IND is at 26.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and IND at 27.4 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHKC @ MIA
KC: 11.5 sack yards lost per game to MIA's 25
KC is at 11.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; MIA is at 25 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and MIA at 19.5 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHSEA @ WSH
WSH: 0.5 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 14
SEA is at 14 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 14.3 over 17 games and WSH at 12.5 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ DAL
BAL: 31:18 time of possession per game to DAL's 25:56
BAL is at 31:18 time of possession per game over 2 games; DAL is at 25:56 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 29:11 over 17 games and DAL at 30:48 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
TEN: 35 penalty yards per game to NYG's 67
TEN is at 35 penalty yards per game over 2 games; NYG is at 67 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 59.5 over 17 games and NYG at 63.2 over 17 games.
TRENCHESLAC @ BUF
BUF: 144.5 rushing yards per game to LAC's 104
LAC is at 104 rushing yards per game over 2 games; BUF is at 144.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 121.6 over 17 games and BUF at 159.6 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Donovan Jennings (G) is questionable for GB
Jennings (hand) did not participate in Monday's estimated practice, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Reported Sep 22.
PARK WEATHERMIN @ SF
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Fourteen mph is blowing out to center at Oracle Park tonight, a park where fly balls usually die, so balls in the air can carry more than usual. That runs against Oracle's typical marine air, which normally knocks drives down and keeps scoring low. Wind readings like this can shift by first pitch. With the total at 7.5, fly ball hitters on both sides get a lift the park usually takes away.
P final total 5 vs 7.5 (over lean)
PARK WEATHERSTL @ PIT
Wind blowing in 14 mph at PNC Park tonight
Fourteen miles an hour blowing straight in from center at PNC Park tonight turns fly balls into outs instead of homers. It's just tonight's reading, but a steady wind like that consistently caps power more than it caps line drives and walks. The total sits at 7 for Cardinals and Pirates, so the number already has some scoring built in, and the wind mainly works against anything hit for distance rather than the running game or shorter routes.
P final total 2 vs 7 (under lean)
TRENCHESMIN @ TB
TB: 5 yards per rush attempt to MIN's 3.7
MIN is at 3.7 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; TB is at 5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 4.46 over 17 games and TB at 4.05 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 24 first downs per game to LV's 17.5
LV is at 17.5 first downs per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 15.1 over 17 games and NO at 18.8 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 23 first downs per game to ARI's 16.5
ARI is at 16.5 first downs per game over 2 games; SF is at 23 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 19.5 over 17 games and SF at 22.3 over 17 games.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ KC
Chase Meidroth (bats R) hits 5th against Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)
Meidroth has a .961 OPS against lefties this season in 152 at-bats, well above the .662 he has hit against righties in 401 tries. Daniel Lynch IV starts as a lefty tonight and Meidroth hits fifth, right where that platoon split favors him. 152 at-bats against lefties is enough of a sample this season to take seriously as a real strength. A left handed starter with Meidroth batting fifth is the shape of matchup where that number should show up most.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ DET
Ben Malgeri (bats R) hits 5th against Riley Cornelio (RHP)
Malgeri's numbers against right handers are strong this season, an .876 OPS, but that comes from just 41 at-bats. He faces righty Riley Cornelio tonight batting fifth, the spot where that small platoon edge lines up in his favor, while his mark against lefties sits at .574 in 63 at-bats. Samples that small on both sides aren't a settled read on him yet and could shift with more games. This reads as early flash more than a proven strength right now.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COVERAGEATL @ GB
GB: 175 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 239
ATL is at 239 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; GB is at 175 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ BOS
Angel Martinez: 1.182 OPS in Last 15 Days
Martinez's 1.182 OPS over his last 33 at bats is well above his .753 season mark, a jump of better than four hundred points. He's got 17 home runs this season, so there's real pop behind the surge, but 33 at bats is a small window and some cooling back toward the season line is normal. The total bases line tonight against Boston sits at 2.5, a tall number that leans on this hot stretch continuing rather than the season mark.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 38.9% third-down conversion rate to DEN's 26.1%
LAR is at 38.9% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 26.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 39.6% over 17 games and DEN at 41.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 21 first downs per game to CLE's 14.5
CAR is at 21 first downs per game over 2 games; CLE is at 14.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 18 over 17 games and CLE at 15.8 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKSEA @ WSH
Jayden Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for WSH
Through 2 games in 2026, Jayden Daniels threw for 260 passing yards, completed 56.9% of his passes and averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 7 games he threw for 1262 yards, completed 60.6% and averaged 6.71 yards per attempt, 8-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in. Jayden Daniels is also listed d for this matchup.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ CHI
Caleb Williams is the projected starting quarterback for CHI
Through 2 games in 2026, Caleb Williams threw for 407 passing yards, completed 65.5% of his passes and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3942 yards, completed 58.1% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 27-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in. Caleb Williams is also listed d for this matchup.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Isaac Seumalo (G) is questionable for ARI
Seumalo (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Reggie Virgil (WR) is inactive for ARI
Virgil (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Seahawks. Reported Sep 20.
PACE & SCRIPTLAC @ BUF
LAC @ BUF carries a 50.5 market total
At 50.5, Chargers at Bills is the second highest total on the slate, 7 points above the 43.5 median across the 16 games with totals set tonight. That is a clear market lean toward a high scoring game. There is no further detail on the sheet to explain the number, so it is one to track for movement between now and kickoff rather than something to read too deeply into on its own.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Isaiah Adams (G) is questionable for ARI
Adams (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
CJ Williams (WR) is inactive for JAX
Williams (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Broncos, John Oehser of the Jaguars' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
COOLING OFFMIN @ SF
Ryan Jeffers: .382 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .382 OPS over 33 at bats is down 0.44 from Jeffers' .822 season mark, one of the steeper drops in this group. Barely two weeks for a catcher who does not play every day, so a swing this size overstates any real change. His season number carries far more weight against San Francisco.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) is reserve-dnr for SF
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Sunday that he's not viewing Aiyuk as an option for the 49ers while the club contends with multiple injuries at receiver, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Sam Cosmi (G) is questionable for WSH
Cosmi suffered a concussion in Sunday's 37-20 loss to the Cowboys, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jordan Watkins (WR) is inactive for SF
Watkins (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Dolphins. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Eddy Pineiro (PK) is questionable for SF
Pineiro (illness) is expected to be active Sunday against the Dolphins, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Brandon Coleman (G) is questionable for WSH
Coach Dan Quinn said Monday that "all signs look good to go" regarding Coleman's (finger) odds of being available in Week 3, JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
John Simpson (G) is questionable for BAL
Simpson (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Luke McCaffrey (WR) is inactive for WSH
McCaffrey (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Cowboys. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Tyler Goodson (RB) is inactive for DAL
Goodson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Commanders, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA
Coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that the Seahawks are drawing closer to setting a date for Charbonnet (knee) to resume practicing, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports. Reported Sep 18.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Fernando Carmona (G) is questionable for TEN
Carmona suffered a shoulder injury during Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Eagles, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Kendre Miller (RB) is inactive for NO
Miller (coach's decision) is listed as inactive Sunday in Baltimore. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Davis Allen (TE) is questionable for LAR
Allen is getting examined for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Thursday's matchup with the 49ers. Reported Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jalen Tolbert (WR) is inactive for MIA
Tolbert (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the 49ers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Elijah Moore (WR) is inactive for PHI
Moore (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Skyler Bell (WR) is inactive for BUF
Bell (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game versus Detroit. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Kayode Awosika (G) is questionable for LAC
Awosika is expected to miss time after injuring his fibula during Sunday's game versus the Raiders, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Josh Whyle (TE) is questionable for GB
Whyle (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Aaron Banks (G) is questionable for GB
Banks (toe) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Jets. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Chris Lindstrom (G) is questionable for ATL
Lindstrom (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
QUARTERBACKSEA @ WSH
Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA
In his first 2026 game, Sam Darnold threw for 13 passing yards, completed 50% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in. Sam Darnold is also listed q for this matchup.
PARK WEATHERMIA @ CHC
Wind blowing in 14 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Fourteen miles an hour blowing straight in from center at Wrigley Field tonight turns fly balls into outs instead of homers. It's just tonight's reading, but a steady wind like that consistently caps power more than it caps line drives and walks. The total sits at 6.5 for Marlins and Cubs, already a lower number, so the wind adds another layer against anything hit for distance. Bettors leaning under get extra help from conditions working squarely against the long ball.
P final total 10 vs 6.5 (under lean)
HEAT CHECKCLE @ BOS
Travis Bazzana: 1.078 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bazzana's 1.078 OPS over his last 42 at-bats is a step up from his .746 mark for the season, a swing of 0.332. He has 15 home runs this year, so the recent stretch builds on real power already in place. Forty two at-bats is a short two week window, so some fade back toward .746 is likely as the sample grows. The total bases line sits at 0.5 tonight against Boston, a number the recent power stretch gives him a good chance to clear.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALARI @ SF
SF: 49.5 penalty yards per game to ARI's 79.5
ARI is at 79.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 49.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 49.5 over 17 games and SF at 38.3 over 17 games.
STREAKSTL @ PIT
PIT have won 4 straight
Pittsburgh has won four straight, outscoring teams by 8 runs over that run. They're 6-4 over their last 10 games, so the streak accounts for most of that stretch but not all of it.
P team won 0-2
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU: 3 fourth-down attempts per game to IND's 1.5
HOU is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and IND at 1.59 over 17 games.
BATTER VS ARMARI @ COL
Ketel Marte vs Kyle Freeland: .354
Marte has dominated Kyle Freeland over his career, going 17-for-48 with six walks for a 1.124 OPS, a big sample for a hitter pitcher matchup. He is cold right now though, a .622 OPS over his last 15 games, which cuts against that history. That mix, a strong matchup history against a cold recent stretch, is the kind of split that cuts both ways heading into tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
TRENCHESLAR @ DEN
LAR: 113 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 157.5
LAR is allowing 113 rushing yards a game through two games, DEN is allowing 157.5, a 44.5 yard gap. Both numbers are early, just two games each, more a signal than a settled trend. The Rams' front has held up well against the run so far, Denver's has been more exposed. Bettors weighing rushing markets in this matchup should note the gap while remembering it can move fast with one more game logged.
STREAKCHW @ KC
KC have lost 4 straight
Kansas City has dropped four straight and been outscored by 9 runs over that span, single digit margins rather than a total collapse. Their last 10 games sit at 3-7, so this skid makes up most of that stretch rather than being a new turn. The White Sox tonight give them a matchup where a shift in form either way is plausible. The losses have stayed close on the scoreboard even as the results keep going the wrong way.
P team lost 14-11
PASS RUSHTEN @ NYG
NYG: 1 sack yards lost per game to TEN's 13.5
TEN is at 13.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 26.1 over 17 games and NYG at 13.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
MIN: 20 penalty yards per game to TB's 50.5
MIN is at 20 penalty yards per game over 2 games; TB is at 50.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 52.1 over 17 games and TB at 43.4 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to IND's 1
HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and IND at 0.82 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
CHI: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to PHI's 0.5
PHI is at 0.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; CHI is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 1.24 over 17 games and CHI at 1.71 over 17 games.
RED ZONECIN @ PIT
PIT: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to CIN's 25%
PIT hasn't allowed a single red zone score through two games, a flat 0%, while CIN has let opponents score on 25% of trips. A perfect red zone number over two games is one of the least stable numbers in football and tends to climb once the sample grows. Pittsburgh's defense has been excellent in the red area so far, but zero is not something to expect to continue. Bettors should build in some regression for Pittsburgh rather than assume the shutout holds.
BATTER VS ARMHOU @ SEA
Jose Altuve vs Logan Gilbert: .351
Altuve has gone 13-for-37 against Gilbert for a .351 average with two home runs, a real track record over 37 career at bats. He's also been steady lately, a .702 OPS over his last 15 games, so this isn't a hot streak clashing with a cold matchup, both point the same way. Two homers in that span means the power is real, not just empty singles. Recent form and matchup history line up here instead of fighting each other.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ BAL
Ernie Clement: .334 OPS in Last 15 Days
Clement's .334 over 40 at bats is down 0.329 from a .663 season mark that was already modest. Two weeks is small enough that a handful of empty nights drags it this far. Against Baltimore there is less separation between his normal level and this cold run than for a typical everyday bat.
COVERAGECIN @ PIT
PIT: 25% third downs allowed to CIN's 37%
CIN is at 37% third downs allowed over 2 games; PIT is at 25% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGEATL @ GB
GB: 3.95 yards per play allowed to ATL's 4.9
ATL is at 4.9 yards per play allowed over 2 games; GB is at 3.95 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGEKC @ MIA
KC: 162.5 passing yards allowed per game to MIA's 223.5
KC is at 162.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 223.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
HEAT CHECKWSH @ DET
Spencer Torkelson: 1.085 OPS in Last 15 Days
Torkelson's 1.085 OPS over his last 40 at bats is a solid step up from his .753 season mark, a swing of about a third of a point. He's got 25 home runs this season, so the underlying power was already there before this stretch. Forty at bats is a reasonable sample, and a jump of this size tends to be more durable than one built off fewer at bats. The 1.5 total bases line tonight against Washington fits both the hot stretch and his season long power.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB, 3 BB
COOLING OFFSD @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .428 OPS in Last 15 Days
Edman's .428 OPS over his last 15 days comes from 47 at-bats, below his .704 mark for the season. That's a real gap even for a two week stretch, pointing to more than just one bad series. Bettors weighing Edman tonight are stacking a nearly full month of below average output against a season line that already wasn't especially strong.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Graham Mertz (QB) is on injured reserve for HOU
Knee - ACL
REGRESSIONWSH @ DET
Eduardo Valencia: .354 AVG vs .277 xBA
Eduardo Valencia is hitting .354 against a .277 expected average (xBA) over 119 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .432 against a .351 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Luis Garcia Jr. carries an .884 OPS against righties over 421 at-bats, well clear of his .629 mark against lefties in 81 at-bats. The right side is the larger sample and the hand he hits best. He bats cleanup tonight against right hander Nick Martinez, so the platoon lines up his way. A split with 421 at-bats behind it is the kind that tends to hold.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Seydou Traore (TE) is questionable for MIA
MIA lists Seydou Traore as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Chig Okonkwo (TE) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Chig Okonkwo as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
RED ZONEBAL @ DAL
DAL: 85.7% red-zone scoring rate to BAL's 66.7%
BAL is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DAL is at 85.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 47.5% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.
PASS RUSHCIN @ PIT
CIN: 17 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 29
CIN is at 17 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; PIT is at 29 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 14.1 over 17 games and PIT at 14.8 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Brock Bowers (TE) is questionable for LV
LV lists Brock Bowers as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
TEAM RECORDARI @ SF
NFC WEST game: ARI 0-1, SF 1-0 in the division
These two share the NFC WEST. ARI is 0-1 against it, SF is 1-0. Current-2026 standings through 2026-09-21.
STARTER FORMHOU @ SEA
Cristian Javier: 2.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
Javier's 2.20 ERA over his last three starts comes with just 4 earned runs in 16.1 innings and a 0.98 WHIP, way down from his 1.46 mark on the season, so he's stranding runners better too. That's a huge swing from his 5.31 season ERA, meaning most of the damage happened earlier this year. Three starts is a short stretch to trust over a full season with a much worse mark. Against Seattle, the question is which version of Javier shows up, the recent one or the season long one.
P 2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 44.8% third-down conversion rate to SEA's 33.3%
SEA is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; WSH is at 44.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 39.8% over 17 games and WSH at 37.6% over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTTEN @ NYG
NYG: 61.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 50
TEN is at 50 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NYG is at 61.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and NYG at 63.8 over 17 games.
RED ZONEMIN @ TB
MIN: 14.3% red-zone scoring allowed to TB's 37.5%
MIN is at 14.3% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; TB is at 37.5% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSATL @ GB
GB: 5.15 yards per play to ATL's 4.25
Green Bay is out-gaining Atlanta by nearly a yard a play, though both offenses sit below last season's marks of 5.38 for Atlanta and 5.61 for Green Bay. Atlanta's dip looks steeper, with just one 20-plus play in its last game against three for Green Bay. Two games is thin for both sides, so some bounce back toward last year's numbers is reasonable. This gap looks more like Green Bay finding a few extra explosive plays than a settled talent edge.
COVERAGELV @ NO
LV: 29.2% third downs allowed to NO's 40.9%
LV is holding opponents to a 29.2% third down conversion rate, NO is allowing 40.9%, an 11.7 point gap. Both marks are from two games, early enough that a few series can swing them. Las Vegas has done the better job getting off the field so far this season. Bettors tracking third down and drive markets in this matchup should watch whether that gap holds as more games come in.
PACE & SCRIPTNE @ JAX
NE: 8 points allowed per game to JAX's 15
NE is at 8 points allowed per game over 2 games; JAX is at 15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLV @ NO
NO: 75 offensive plays per game to LV's 63.5
LV is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NO is at 75 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 55.8 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ CHI
CHI: 31 points per game to PHI's 24
PHI is at 24 points per game over 2 games; CHI is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and CHI at 25.9 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Chauncey Golston (DE) is questionable for NYG
NYG lists Chauncey Golston as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
HEAD-TO-HEADSTL @ PIT
Cardinals are 6-4 vs Pirates this season
Ten games is a full season series, so the Cardinals' edge reflects real results. Pittsburgh took the last meeting 5-4 in a tight one, and no starters or venue splits explain the split. A close division series can swing any night, and the last meeting shows it already has.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Billy Bowman Jr. (CB) is questionable for ATL
ATL lists Billy Bowman Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Brandon Cisse (CB) is questionable for GB
GB lists Brandon Cisse as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Barryn Sorrell (DE) is questionable for GB
GB lists Barryn Sorrell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Benjamin St-Juste (CB) is questionable for GB
GB lists Benjamin St-Juste as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Anthony Belton (OT) is questionable for GB
GB lists Anthony Belton as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Deane Leonard (CB) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Deane Leonard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Elijah Molden (CB) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Elijah Molden as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Trey Pipkins III (OT) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Trey Pipkins III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Terrel Bernard (LB) is questionable for BUF
Bernard (calf) was a limited participant in Tuesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE) is inactive for CAR
Sanders (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Noah Igbinoghene (CB) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Noah Igbinoghene as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Dawand Jones (OT) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Dawand Jones as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Joseph Ossai (DE) is questionable for NYJ
NYJ lists Joseph Ossai as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Blake Miller (OT) is questionable for DET
DET lists Blake Miller as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Jadeveon Clowney (DE) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Jadeveon Clowney as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Cor'Dale Flott (CB) is questionable for TEN
TEN lists Cor'Dale Flott as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Kylen Granson (TE) is inactive for TEN
Granson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against Philadelphia. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Tory Horton (WR) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Tory Horton as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Tyler Owens (S) is questionable for WSH
Owens (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Eagles, Ben Standig of Big 100 Washington D.C. reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Charles Omenihu (DE) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Charles Omenihu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Dametrious Crownover (OT) is questionable for NE
NE lists Dametrious Crownover as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable for NE
NE lists Carlton Davis III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Tanner Arkin (TE) is inactive for NE
Arkin (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Steelers. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Tanner Koziol (TE) is inactive for JAX
Koziol (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Broncos, John Oehser of the Jaguars' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Garrett Williams (CB) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Garrett Williams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Khalid Kareem (DE) is questionable for SF
SF lists Khalid Kareem as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Keion White (DE) is questionable for SF
SF lists Keion White as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Sean Tucker (RB) is questionable for TB
TB lists Sean Tucker as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jacob Parrish (CB) is questionable for TB
TB lists Jacob Parrish as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Devontez Walker (WR) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Devontez Walker as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Darien Porter (CB) is questionable for LV
LV lists Darien Porter as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Alvin Kamara (RB) is questionable for NO
NO lists Alvin Kamara as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Kam Curl (S) is questionable for LAR
Curl (ankle) is questionable to return to Thursday's game against the 49ers, Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times reports. Reported Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Marcus Epps (S) is questionable for PHI
Epps (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Commanders. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Dayo Odeyingbo (DE) is questionable for CHI
CHI lists Dayo Odeyingbo as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Darnell Wright (OT) is questionable for CHI
CHI lists Darnell Wright as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
HEAD-TO-HEADARI @ COL
Diamondbacks are 6-4 vs Rockies this season
Ten games is a proper sample, so Arizona's edge is real, just not lopsided. Colorado won the last meeting 6-4, and no pitching or park detail ties the record to tonight. With the two teams trading recent results, this series looks more even than the 6-4 mark alone suggests.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate to DEN's 0%
LAR is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and DEN at 50% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NYJ's 66.7%
NYJ is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; DET is at 100% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 43.9% over 17 games and DET at 58.1% over 17 games.
TRENCHESLAR @ DEN
LAR: 5 yards per rush attempt to DEN's 3.9
LAR is at 5 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 3.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 4.69 over 17 games and DEN at 4.45 over 17 games.
TRENCHESATL @ GB
ATL: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to GB's 3.3
ATL is at 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; GB is at 3.3 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 4.39 over 17 games and GB at 4.21 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
IND: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to HOU's 33.3%
HOU is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; IND is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 57.9% over 17 games and IND at 66.7% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 7.7 yards per pass attempt to NE's 6.15
NE is at 6.15 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; JAX is at 7.7 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 7.99 over 17 games and JAX at 6.42 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
NO: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to LV's 66.7%
LV is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; NO is at 100% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 40.6% over 17 games and NO at 41.2% over 17 games.
STARTER FORMCIN @ ATL
Brandon Williamson: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
An 8.53 ERA over three starts, 12 earned runs in 12.2 innings, and a WHIP up to 2.13 from 1.53 on the year. That is a big jump even against an already shaky 5.56 season ERA. Three starts is enough to take seriously, and Atlanta tonight is not a soft landing.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 25
BDL lists 3 covered college games on the next college slate. All 3 kickoff times are confirmed.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSMIN @ TB
TB: 5.2 yards per play to MIN's 4.35
Tampa Bay's 5.2 yards a play is right in line with last season's 5.12, a continuation of an already efficient offense. Minnesota's 4.35 is down from 4.82 a year ago, more of a real step back than a one-game blip. Two games apiece leaves room for Minnesota to climb, but the direction matches an actual season-over-season decline. Bettors can treat Tampa Bay's per-play efficiency as the more established trait here.
RED ZONEHOU @ IND
HOU: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to IND's 3
HOU is at 4.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; IND is at 3 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 3.18 over 17 games and IND at 3.88 over 17 games.
RED ZONENYJ @ DET
DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3
NYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; DET is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 46.7% third-down conversion rate to MIA's 36%
KC is at 46.7% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 36% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 37.4% over 17 games and MIA at 34.9% over 17 games.
RED ZONECIN @ PIT
CIN: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 1.5
CIN is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 3.18 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.
RED ZONEMIN @ TB
TB: 4 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2.5
MIN is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; TB is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and TB at 2.94 over 17 games.
RED ZONECIN @ PIT
CIN: 50% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 33.3%
CIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; PIT is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 66.7% over 17 games and PIT at 58.8% over 17 games.
TRENCHESTEN @ NYG
TEN: 4.55 yards per rush attempt to NYG's 3.5
TEN is at 4.55 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; NYG is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 4.19 over 17 games and NYG at 4.31 over 17 games.
TRENCHESCAR @ CLE
CAR: 96.5 rushing yards per game to CLE's 65.5
CAR is at 96.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; CLE is at 65.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 116.3 over 17 games and CLE at 97 over 17 games.
STARTER FORMCIN @ ATL
JR Ritchie: 7.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ritchie's 7.90 ERA over three starts, 13.2 innings, is far worse than his 5.03 season mark, and his WHIP climbed to 1.83 from 1.47. The season ERA is doing a lot of work to make him look better than he has pitched lately. Against Atlanta the recent trend matters more until he proves otherwise.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 243 team passing yards per game to DEN's 201.5
LAR is at 243 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DEN is at 201.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and DEN at 223.9 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 7.95 yards per pass attempt to DEN's 6.45
LAR is at 7.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 6.45 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and DEN at 5.99 over 17 games.
RED ZONELAC @ BUF
BUF: 4 red-zone trips per game to LAC's 2.5
LAC is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; BUF is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 3.35 over 17 games and BUF at 3.82 over 17 games.
REGRESSIONMIN @ SF
Jonah Cox: .280 AVG vs .216 xBA
Jonah Cox is hitting .280 against a .216 expected average (xBA) over 148 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .326 against a .264 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
PARK WEATHERTB @ NYY
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
A 12 mph wind blowing in from left field at Yankee Stadium, sunny and 63 degrees, can turn a deep fly into a warning track out. Tonight's Rays at Yankees total is 6.5, a low number that leans on the park playing smaller than usual. This is a one-night weather reading, so it can shift by game time. The question for a bettor is how much of that low total comes from the air and how much from the matchup itself.
P final total 7 vs 6.5 (under lean)
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Tutu Atwell (WR) is inactive for LAR
Atwell (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's tilt against the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 10.
PASS RUSHSEA @ WSH
WSH: 0.5 sacks taken per game to SEA's 1.5
SEA is at 1.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 2.08 over 17 games and WSH at 2.31 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
BUF has 3 more days of rest
LAC is playing on a short turnaround, just 2 days since its last game, while Buffalo got 5 days to rest, heal and prepare. That gives the Bills a 3-day scheduling edge, more practice time and recovery than the Chargers had. Short-week teams often show it late in games through tired legs and thinner depth, so watch how LA holds up in the fourth quarter. A gap like this tends to matter more in game management and freshness than on the opening kickoff.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET has 3 more days of rest
NYJ comes in on a short week (2 days since its last game); DET on a short week (5 days since its last game). That is a 3-day spacing gap between the sides.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Christen Miller (DT) is questionable for NO
NO lists Christen Miller as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
SITUATIONALATL @ GB
ATL (0-2) at GB (1-1)
ATL is winless and down 38 through two games, the roughest scoring mark here. GB is only 1-1 and down 14 itself, though it did snap a skid with its last win. ATL's one road game this year was also a loss, so nothing in that split points to a turnaround yet. GB hasn't played at home yet this season, so its home form is still a blank slate.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
LAC (0-2) at BUF (2-0)
BUF is unbeaten and plus 15 on the year, and its only home game so far was also a win. LAC is 0-2 and down 24, and hasn't played on the road yet, so there's no travel data to lean on. That 39-point scoring gap is the clearest signal here, and it matches BUF's clean record against LAC's rough start. BUF holding its home floor is the more proven trend of the two.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR (1-1) at CLE (1-1)
CAR and CLE are both 1-1 and both won their last game, but CAR is plus 9 on the year while CLE is down 20. CAR's win already came on the road, so that split is proven, while CLE hasn't played at home yet and that side is untested. The matching records make these two look even, but the scoring margins say CAR has actually played better through two games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC (2-0) at MIA (0-2)
KC is unbeaten and plus 24 on the season, MIA is winless and down 36, a 60-point swing in margin between them. Neither team has played on the road or at home yet, so there's no split data yet, just the raw scoring gap from two games each. That's a small two-game sample for both sides, and it can shift with one different opponent. Until either team faces new competition, treat that scoring gap as early rather than settled.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
SEA (2-0) at WSH (0-2)
SEA is unbeaten and plus 27 on the season, and that road win already on the books backs up the number. WSH is 0-2 and down 19, and hasn't played at home yet, so its home floor is untested. The 46-point scoring gap is still a two-game sample for each side, wide but early. SEA already proving it can win away from home is the more reliable piece here than WSH's unknown home form.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
MIN (2-0) at TB (0-2)
MIN is unbeaten and plus 23 on the season, with a road win already banked. TB is 0-2 but only down 10, a smaller gap than the record alone suggests, and its one home game this year was also a loss. TB's record may be flattering how competitive it's actually been, since a minus-10 margin isn't a blowout number. MIN's proven road success is the stronger piece of evidence here than TB's still-winless home mark.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 25 first downs per game to NYJ's 20
NYJ is at 20 first downs per game over 2 games; DET is at 25 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 16 over 17 games and DET at 20.4 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 22 first downs per game to NE's 17
NE is at 17 first downs per game over 2 games; JAX is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 21.2 over 17 games and JAX at 20.9 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Omar Cooper Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
D'Angelo Ponds (CB) is inactive for NYJ
Ponds (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Sep 20.
PASS RUSHPHI @ CHI
CHI: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1.5
PHI is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; CHI is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
STARTER FORMSTL @ PIT
Jared Jones: 1.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
An 18 inning, 3 earned run, 26 strikeout stretch works out to a 1.50 ERA, 2.67 runs better than his 4.17 season number. The strikeouts back up the run prevention, so this is more than an ERA outlier. Three starts is still small and some of that gap should close toward the season rate.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
CHI: 21.5 first downs per game to PHI's 16.5
PHI is at 16.5 first downs per game over 2 games; CHI is at 21.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 18 over 17 games and CHI at 21.1 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Maliek Collins (DT) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Maliek Collins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
TRENCHESLV @ NO
LV: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 136.5
LV is at 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 136.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Bobby Brown III (DT) is questionable for CAR
CAR lists Bobby Brown III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
John Metchie III (WR) is inactive for CAR
Metchie (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's regular-season opener against the Bears, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Patrick Jones II (LB) is questionable for CAR
CAR lists Patrick Jones II as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Kamren Kinchens (S) is questionable for LAR
LAR lists Kamren Kinchens as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ed Oliver (DT) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists Ed Oliver as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
T.J. Sanders (DT) is questionable for BUF
BUF lists T.J. Sanders as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
PASS RUSHTEN @ NYG
TEN: 1.5 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 0.5
TEN is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; NYG is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGELAR @ DEN
LAR: 4.6 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.4
LAR is allowing 4.6 yards per play through two games, DEN is allowing 5.4, a 0.8 yard gap. That's a modest edge and still just a two-game sample for both defenses. Los Angeles has been the tighter unit on a per snap basis early in the season. Bettors should treat the gap as a small early signal rather than a proven efficiency edge this soon.
COVERAGELAR @ DEN
LAR: 38.5% third downs allowed to DEN's 48.3%
LAR is holding opponents to a 38.5% third down conversion rate, DEN is allowing 48.3%, a 9.8 point gap. Both are two-game numbers, early enough that one tough or easy third down slate could shift them. The Rams have been the better defense on third down so far this season. Bettors watching drive sustaining markets in this matchup should note the gap while treating it as early rather than settled.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Teair Tart (DT) is questionable for LAC
LAC lists Teair Tart as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Javon Hargrave (DT) is questionable for GB
GB lists Javon Hargrave as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
J. Michael Sturdivant (WR) is inactive for GB
Sturdivant (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Warren Brinson (DT) is questionable for GB
GB lists Warren Brinson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
PACE & SCRIPTHOU @ IND
HOU: 32:44 time of possession per game to IND's 28:50
HOU is at 32:44 time of possession per game over 2 games; IND is at 28:50 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and IND at 29:37 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Kendal Daniels (LB) is questionable for ATL
ATL lists Kendal Daniels as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Tyler Badie (RB) is inactive for DEN
Badie (coach's decision) is inactive for Monday's game against the Chiefs, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jonathan Greenard (LB) is questionable for PHI
PHI lists Jonathan Greenard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Ozzy Trapilo (OT) is inactive for CHI
Trapilo (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Neville Gallimore (DT) is questionable for CHI
CHI lists Neville Gallimore as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Isaiah Stalbird (LB) is questionable for NO
NO lists Isaiah Stalbird as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
DeMarvion Overshown (LB) is questionable for DAL
DAL lists DeMarvion Overshown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Keondre Jackson (S) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Keondre Jackson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL
Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Elijah Sarratt (WR) is inactive for BAL
Sarratt (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Nnamdi Madubuike (DT) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Nnamdi Madubuike as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Teddye Buchanan (LB) is questionable for BAL
BAL lists Teddye Buchanan as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Demond Claiborne (RB) is inactive for MIN
Claiborne (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Packers, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
De'Zhaun Stribling (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jordan James (RB) is inactive for SF
James (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Cody Simon (LB) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Cody Simon as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Andrew Billings (DT) is questionable for ARI
ARI lists Andrew Billings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Efton Chism III (WR) is inactive for NE
Chism (coach's decision) is inactive for Wednesday's game against the Seahawks. Reported Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Daron Payne (DT) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Daron Payne as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
K'Lavon Chaisson (LB) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists K'Lavon Chaisson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
PARK WEATHERTB @ NYY
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
A 12 mph wind blowing in from left field at Yankee Stadium under sunny skies and 63 degrees is enough to knock fly balls down before they reach the seats. Tonight's Rays at Yankees total sits at 7, a low number that leans on contact and defense over raw power. This is a reading tied to tonight's forecast, so it can ease off by first pitch. Sides banking on a lower scoring game get the most from it.
P final total 2 vs 7 (under lean)
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Frankie Luvu (LB) is questionable for WSH
WSH lists Frankie Luvu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Treylon Burks (WR) is inactive for WSH
Burks (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Eagles. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Ty Okada (S) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Ty Okada as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
B.J. Hill (DT) is questionable for CIN
CIN lists B.J. Hill as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Najee Harris (RB) is inactive for NYG
Harris (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
James Williams Sr. (LB) is questionable for TEN
TEN lists James Williams Sr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Nicholas Singleton (RB) is inactive for TEN
Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Jets. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chop Robinson (LB) is questionable for MIA
MIA lists Chop Robinson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Jake Hummel (LB) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Jake Hummel as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
The Jets placed Smith (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 22.
PASS RUSHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 2 sacks taken per game to LAC's 3
LAC is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; BUF is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 3.75 over 17 games and BUF at 2.86 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) is questionable for NYJ
NYJ lists Minkah Fitzpatrick as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
PARK WEATHERCLE @ BOS
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Fenway Park tonight
Twelve miles an hour blowing straight in from center at Fenway Park tonight knocks down fly balls that might otherwise clear the wall. It's just tonight's reading, but wind like that consistently trims power more than it trims line drives or walks. The total sits at 6 for Guardians and Red Sox, already one of the lower numbers on the board, and the wind reinforces that lean against the long ball.
P final total 5 vs 6 (under lean)
PASS RUSHLAR @ DEN
DEN: 2 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1
LAR is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ GB
ATL: 30:48 time of possession per game to GB's 26:60
ATL is at 30:48 time of possession per game over 2 games; GB is at 26:60 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ATL was at 29:60 over 17 games and GB at 29:48 over 17 games.
TRENCHESNYJ @ DET
DET: 4.15 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.2
NYJ is at 3.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DET is at 4.15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 4.53 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.
PLATOON EDGETB @ NYY
Ben Rice (bats L) hits 1st against Nick Martinez (RHP)
Ben Rice owns a .937 OPS against righties over 358 at-bats against .797 in 193 at-bats the other way, and 358 at-bats is a real sample on the strong side. He bats first tonight against right hander Nick Martinez, so the platoon lines up in his favor. The split has enough data behind it to hold rather than correct. His spot at the top of the order gives it more chances to play out.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PACE & SCRIPTSEA @ WSH
WSH: 67 offensive plays per game to SEA's 57.5
SEA is at 57.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; WSH is at 67 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 59.7 over 17 games and WSH at 58.2 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 213.5 team passing yards per game to PIT's 175
CIN is at 213.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; PIT is at 175 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 235.6 over 17 games and PIT at 202.4 over 17 games.
TRENCHESLAC @ BUF
BUF: 4.85 yards per rush attempt to LAC's 3.95
LAC is at 3.95 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; BUF is at 4.85 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 4.58 over 17 games and BUF at 4.97 over 17 games.
RED ZONEPHI @ CHI
PHI: 71.4% red-zone scoring rate to CHI's 57.1%
PHI is at 71.4% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; CHI is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 70.5% over 17 games and CHI at 58.2% over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTLAR @ DEN
LAR: 16.5 points allowed per game to DEN's 22
LAR is at 16.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 20.4 over 17 games and DEN at 18.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ CLE
CAR: 61 offensive plays per game to CLE's 52
CAR is at 61 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CLE is at 52 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 59.5 over 17 games and CLE at 60.6 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSSEA @ WSH
SEA: 5.8 yards per play to WSH's 5.1
Seattle's 5.8 yards a play edges Washington's 5.1, though both are down from last season's 5.98 and 5.53. Washington actually had more 20-plus plays last game, four including two to McLaurin, against three for Seattle that included an 82-yard score to Smith-Njigba. That mismatch means explosive plays alone don't explain the gap, and with two games each it could narrow quickly. Bettors should not assume Seattle's per-play edge holds given how many chunk plays Washington already produces.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
CJ Daniels (WR) is inactive for LAR
LAR lists CJ Daniels as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Tyrel Dodson (LB) is inactive for CAR
Dodson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Teven Jenkins (G) is questionable for CLE
CLE lists Teven Jenkins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Ke'Shawn Williams (WR) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Ke'Shawn Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSPHI @ CHI
CHI: 6.05 yards per play to PHI's 5.35
Chicago's 6.05 yards a play is up from last season's 5.71, and Philadelphia's 5.35 is also a tick above its 5.27, so both offenses are trending better than a year ago. The gap is modest and lines up with where each team stood last season, Chicago the more efficient side both then and now. Two games is still a small sample, but the year-over-year direction matches rather than looking like a fluke. Bettors can view Chicago's per-play edge as a real trait carried over from last year.
COVERAGENE @ JAX
NE: 17.4% third downs allowed to JAX's 26.3%
NE is at 17.4% third downs allowed over 2 games; JAX is at 26.3% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Montorie Foster Jr. (WR) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Montorie Foster Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
STARTER FORMARI @ COL
Michael Soroka: 5.79 ERA over his last 3 starts
Soroka's last three starts produced 14 innings, 9 earned runs and 14 hits, a 5.79 ERA that is 2.34 runs worse than his 3.45 season mark. The hit total points to hard contact. Three starts is small, but it is a clear step back, and Colorado's park favors hitters.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
STARTER FORMHOU @ SEA
Logan Gilbert: 6.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
Gilbert's 6.11 ERA over three starts comes with 12 earned runs in 17.2 innings and a WHIP up to 1.30 from 1.06. That is a real step down from a 3.69 season ERA across three separate outings, more than one bad game. Against Houston he looks less reliable than the year-long numbers suggest.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
TRENCHESARI @ SF
SF: 4.65 yards per rush attempt to ARI's 3.75
ARI is at 3.75 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; SF is at 4.65 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 4.25 over 17 games and SF at 3.81 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Christian Mahogany (G) is questionable for DET
DET lists Christian Mahogany as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Ed Ingram (G) is questionable for HOU
HOU lists Ed Ingram as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
TRENCHESSEA @ WSH
WSH: 157 rushing yards per game to SEA's 129.5
SEA is at 129.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; WSH is at 157 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 123.3 over 17 games and WSH at 134.7 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Camden Brown (WR) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Camden Brown as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Tucker Addington (LS) is questionable for MIA
MIA lists Tucker Addington as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Josh Jones (G) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Josh Jones as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Anthony Bradford (G) is questionable for SEA
SEA lists Anthony Bradford as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kyle Juszczyk (FB) is questionable for SF
SF lists Kyle Juszczyk as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
PACE & SCRIPTTEN @ NYG
TEN @ NYG carries a 39.5 market total
Titans at Giants is priced at 39.5, 4 points below the 43.5 median across tonight's slate. That is the market leaning toward a lower scoring, grind it out game. With no other detail on the sheet, it is a modest lean rather than an extreme one, and the kind of number that can shift as more information comes in before kickoff.
PARK WEATHERMIL @ PHI
Wind blowing in 11 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight
Eleven miles an hour blowing straight in from center at Citizens Bank Park tonight is enough to knock down fly balls that would normally carry. It's just tonight's reading, but an in wind at that speed tends to cut into home runs more than line drives or walks. The total sits at 7 for Brewers and Phillies, so the wind mainly works against anything that needs distance to leave the yard, not the running game or singles.
P final total 10 vs 7 (under lean)
PACE & SCRIPTLAC @ BUF
LAC: 26 points allowed per game to BUF's 31
LAC is at 26 points allowed per game over 2 games; BUF is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 20 over 17 games and BUF at 21.5 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTNYJ @ DET
NYJ @ DET carries a 47.5 market total
Jets at Lions sits at 47.5, 4 points above the 43.5 median across tonight's slate. That is a mild tilt toward more scoring than the average game, not an extreme one. With no other detail on the sheet, it is a modest market read rather than a strong signal, and the kind of number that can move either direction before kickoff.
PACE & SCRIPTARI @ SF
ARI @ SF carries a 47.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 47.5, 4 points above the 43.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.
RED ZONEHOU @ IND
HOU: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to IND's 66.7%
HOU is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; IND is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
RED ZONELAR @ DEN
LAR: 40% red-zone scoring allowed to DEN's 57.1%
LAR is at 40% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DEN is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
KC: 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game to MIA's 1.5
KC is at 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 1.88 over 17 games and MIA at 1.35 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
SEA: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to WSH's 1
SEA is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; WSH is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 0.71 over 17 games and WSH at 1.53 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DAL
BAL: 254 team passing yards per game to DAL's 220.5
BAL is at 254 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DAL is at 220.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 175.6 over 17 games and DAL at 266.3 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to DEN's 0.5
LAR is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 1.76 over 17 games and DEN at 1.18 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
PHI: 37.5 penalty yards per game to CHI's 57.5
PHI is at 37.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; CHI is at 57.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 63.1 over 17 games and CHI at 57.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAC @ BUF
LAC: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to BUF's 0.5
LAC is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 1.24 over 17 games and BUF at 1.88 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 41.5 penalty yards per game to SEA's 62
SEA is at 62 penalty yards per game over 2 games; WSH is at 41.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 46.6 over 17 games and WSH at 53.7 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKLAR @ DEN
Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN
Through 2 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 419 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLV @ NO
Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO
Through 2 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 662 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.36 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLV @ NO
Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV
Through 2 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 413 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKBAL @ DAL
Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL
Through 2 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 454 passing yards, completed 73.8% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKBAL @ DAL
Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL
Through 2 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 559 passing yards, completed 67.9% of his passes and averaged 9.98 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKMIN @ TB
Baker Mayfield is the projected starting quarterback for TB
Through 2 games in 2026, Baker Mayfield threw for 398 passing yards, completed 71% of his passes and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3693 yards, completed 63.2% and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, 26-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKMIN @ TB
Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN
In his first 2026 game, Kyler Murray threw for 18 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Jack Endries (TE) is inactive for CIN
Endries (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's matchup with the Bucs. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Shemar Stewart (DE) is questionable for CIN
CIN lists Shemar Stewart as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Josh Simmons (OT) is questionable for KC
KC lists Josh Simmons as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Blake Grupe (PK) is inactive for NYJ
Grupe (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Packers. Reported Sep 20.
BATTER VS ARMARI @ COL
Nolan Arenado vs Kyle Freeland: .500
Arenado is 5-for-10 against Kyle Freeland for a .500 average, but that's just ten career at-bats, too small to call a real trend. He is hot right now though, a 1.298 OPS over his last 15 games, and that form lines up with the matchup number instead of clashing with it. With a sample this thin, the recent hot streak matters more than the matchup history when sizing up tonight.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
QUARTERBACKNYJ @ DET
Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET
Through 2 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 533 passing yards, completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 6.92 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKHOU @ IND
C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU
Through 2 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 627 passing yards, completed 60.2% of his passes and averaged 6.74 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKHOU @ IND
Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND
Through 2 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 376 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 6.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKKC @ MIA
Patrick Mahomes is the projected starting quarterback for KC
Through 2 games in 2026, Patrick Mahomes threw for 566 passing yards, completed 63.5% of his passes and averaged 7.65 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3587 yards, completed 62.7% and averaged 7.14 yards per attempt, 22-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKKC @ MIA
Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA
Through 2 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 417 passing yards, completed 58% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKTEN @ NYG
Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN
Through 2 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 323 passing yards, completed 61.5% of his passes and averaged 6.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Ben Brown (C) is questionable for NE
NE lists Ben Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
QUARTERBACKTEN @ NYG
Jameis Winston is the projected starting quarterback for NYG
In his first 2026 game, Jameis Winston threw for 111 passing yards, completed 40.7% of his passes and averaged 4.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 567 yards, completed 56.1% and averaged 8.59 yards per attempt, 2-2 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ CHI
Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI
Through 2 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 467 passing yards, completed 64.5% of his passes and averaged 7.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLAR @ DEN
Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR
Through 2 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 482 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 8.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKATL @ GB
Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL
In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 1982 passing yards, completed 60.1% of his passes and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt. His 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line puts that prior-season passing production in the context of his ball security over the same sample.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG: 179.5 team passing yards per game to TEN's 148
TEN is at 148 team passing yards per game over 2 games; NYG is at 179.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 166.1 over 17 games and NYG at 204.4 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Max Klare (TE) is inactive for LAR
Klare (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's season-opener versus San Francisco in Melbourne, Australia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 11.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Matthew Caldwell (QB) is on injured reserve for LAR
The Rams placed Caldwell (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Aug 29.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Justin Skule (OT) is questionable for TB
TB lists Justin Skule as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Brett Thorson (P) is questionable for MIN
MIN lists Brett Thorson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Jake Tonges (TE) is on injured reserve for SF
Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports. Reported Sep 16.
QUARTERBACKARI @ SF
Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF
Through 2 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 492 passing yards, completed 80.4% of his passes and averaged 8.79 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKARI @ SF
Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI
Through 2 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 372 passing yards, completed 67.7% of his passes and averaged 5.72 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKNE @ JAX
Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX
Through 2 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 434 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 8.35 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKNE @ JAX
Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE
Through 2 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 386 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 7.02 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKCIN @ PIT
Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT
Through 2 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 408 passing yards, completed 59.5% of his passes and averaged 5.17 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKCIN @ PIT
Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN
Through 2 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 461 passing yards, completed 68.2% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
SITUATIONALLV @ NO
LV (2-0) at NO (1-1)
LV is 2-0, +26 points on the year, has won 2 straight this season. NO is 1-1, +6 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. LV is 1-0 on the road; NO is 0-0 at home.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG: 48% third-down conversion rate to TEN's 40%
TEN is at 40% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; NYG is at 48% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 31.9% over 17 games and NYG at 40.2% over 17 games.
SITUATIONALSEA @ WSH
WSH: 22 first downs per game to SEA's 18
SEA is at 18 first downs per game over 2 games; WSH is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 20 over 17 games and WSH at 19 over 17 games.
TRENCHESHOU @ IND
IND: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.6
HOU is at 3.6 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; IND is at 4.4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and IND at 4.44 over 17 games.
QUARTERBACKATL @ GB
Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB
Through 2 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 532 passing yards, completed 52.1% of his passes and averaged 7.49 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKLAC @ BUF
Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC
Through 2 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 401 passing yards, completed 59.3% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
RETURN WATCHTEX · return listed 9/22
Carter Baumler
Baumler's been out with the ribs, and the roster's got him listed back today, 9/22 — so by the letter of that listing he's active right now. A 3.18 ERA out of the pen is real value if it holds, but a fresh return-from-IL arm always needs a look before you trust him in a save/hold spot. Stash if you've got the bench space — cheap price for a 3.18 ERA arm, just confirm he's actually throwing before you rely on him.
QUARTERBACKLAC @ BUF
Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF
Through 2 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 582 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 9.7 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REGRESSIONTB @ NYY
Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .263 xBA
Simpson's .309 average sits well above the .263 Statcast expected off his contact, and his .308 wOBA also beats a .266 expected mark. That gap spans 597 plate appearances, a full season sample, not a short stretch. Statcast measures contact quality, not results, and a gap this size holding for a full season suggests his production is more real than the models suggest. For hitting props tonight, his season long average looks like the more reliable number to lean on.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ NYY
Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .263 xBA
Simpson is hitting .309 against a .263 expected average, with his wOBA of .308 also topping a .266 expected mark. That gap has held over 597 plate appearances, nearly a full season, making it far less likely to be noise than a short hot streak. It probably reflects something Statcast undercounts, like his speed turning weak contact into hits. That track record carries more weight than the raw expected numbers alone against the Yankees.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
QUARTERBACKCAR @ CLE
Bryce Young is the projected starting quarterback for CAR
Through 2 games in 2026, Bryce Young threw for 648 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 8.88 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3011 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, 23-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
QUARTERBACKCAR @ CLE
Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE
Through 2 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 443 passing yards, completed 76.9% of his passes and averaged 8.52 yards per attempt. His 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.
QUARTERBACKNYJ @ DET
Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ
Through 2 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 462 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 7.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
REPLACEMENTWSH @ DET
Ben Malgeri (.876 vs RHP) replaces Wenceel Perez at RF tonight
Malgeri takes over in right with Perez out 11 days for an orbital issue, batting fifth against Cornelio instead of wherever he usually slots in. His .876 OPS against right handers comes from just 41 at-bats, well above his .740 mark for the season, so it's a small sample likely to move. With Perez sidelined more than a week, Malgeri should keep getting everyday reps, and the platoon matchup against a right hander is the more useful angle than trusting the rate itself.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTSD @ LAD
Dustin Harris (.779 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Harris takes over in left against righty Brock Stewart tonight, batting second. His .779 OPS against right handers over 96 at bats beats his .759 season mark, so the platoon look has real teeth. Laureano's been out 10 days with a hip issue, which could keep this alignment going a while longer. It's a small sample at 96 at bats, but the split gives Harris a real edge against right handed pitching tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ CLE
CLE: 26.5 points allowed per game to CAR's 31
CAR is at 31 points allowed per game over 2 games; CLE is at 26.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 22.4 over 17 games and CLE at 22.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ CHI
CHI: 70 offensive plays per game to PHI's 62.5
PHI is at 62.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CHI is at 70 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 59.4 over 17 games and CHI at 64.9 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHLAC @ BUF
BUF: 8 sack yards lost per game to LAC's 15.5
LAC is at 15.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; BUF is at 8 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAC was at 21.6 over 17 games and BUF at 21.3 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCAR @ CLE
CAR: 8 yards per pass attempt to CLE's 6.95
CAR is at 8 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; CLE is at 6.95 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 5.47 over 17 games and CLE at 4.78 over 17 games.
COVERAGEPHI @ CHI
CHI: 31.8% third downs allowed to PHI's 39.3%
PHI is at 39.3% third downs allowed over 2 games; CHI is at 31.8% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 246.5 team passing yards per game to NYJ's 216.5
NYJ is at 216.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DET is at 246.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 140.3 over 17 games and DET at 253.1 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIA
MIA: 55.5 penalty yards per game to KC's 73
KC is at 73 penalty yards per game over 2 games; MIA is at 55.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 59.4 over 17 games and MIA at 47.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
NYJ (1-1) at DET (1-1)
NYJ and DET are both 1-1 and both coming off a loss, but NYJ is plus 10 on the year while DET is down 9, a 19-point gap in margin. NYJ's win already came on the road and DET's win came at home, so each side has proven it can hold its own split. The identical records mask a real difference in how these two have actually played. That scoring margin gap says more about these two than the matching win-loss line does.
REGRESSIONSD @ LAD
Ty France: .301 AVG vs .257 xBA
France is hitting .301 against a .257 expected average, and his wOBA of .380 runs ahead of a .334 expected mark by a similar margin. Both gaps have held over 474 plate appearances, a large enough sample to suggest real contact skill rather than a short run of luck. Some drift toward the expected marks is possible as pitchers adjust, but the sample size gives the .301 more credibility than a one month number would carry against the Dodgers.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Tim Patrick (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ
The Jets placed Patrick (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Dillon Gabriel (QB) is ir-r for CLE
CLE lists Dillon Gabriel as ir-r on the injury report. Reported Sep 8.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for LAC
The Chargers placed Lambert-Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Ty'Ron Hopper (LB) is questionable for GB
GB lists Ty'Ron Hopper as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB) is on injured reserve for ATL
The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
IND: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to HOU's 1
HOU is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; IND is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 0.18 over 17 games and IND at 0.53 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSKC @ MIA
KC: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to MIA's 1
KC is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 0.88 over 17 games and MIA at 1.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSKC @ MIA
KC: 0 fumbles lost per game to MIA's 0.5
KC is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; MIA is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season KC was at 0.18 over 17 games and MIA at 0.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 0 fumbles lost per game to NE's 0.5
NE is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; JAX is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 0.47 over 17 games and JAX at 0.35 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU: 24 first downs per game to IND's 20.5
HOU is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; IND is at 20.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and IND at 20.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALCIN @ PIT
CIN: 19 first downs per game to PIT's 15.5
CIN is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; PIT is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 20.7 over 17 games and PIT at 17.7 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR: 19 first downs per game to DEN's 15.5
LAR is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; DEN is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 23.3 over 17 games and DEN at 19.6 over 17 games.
RED ZONENYJ @ DET
DET: 77.8% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 66.7%
NYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DET is at 77.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and DET at 62.5% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jaylon Jones (CB) is inactive for TEN
Coach's Decision
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Justin Joly (TE) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Justin Joly as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE
Brown, who was officially placed on injured reserve Saturday, is expected to miss about six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chamarri Conner (S) is questionable for KC
KC lists Chamarri Conner as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 15.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Micheal Clemons (DE) is on injured reserve for IND
Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Brevin Jordan (TE) is inactive for HOU
HOU lists Brevin Jordan as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Avonte Maddox (CB) is on injured reserve for DET
The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Christian Izien (S) is questionable for DET
DET lists Christian Izien as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Isiah Pacheco (RB) is on injured reserve for DET
Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Cade Mays (C) is ir-r for DET
Mays (wrist) is looking to return from injured reserve by mid-October, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports. Reported Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
B.J. Green II (DE) is on injured reserve for JAX
The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Ricky Pearsall (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
Knee - PCL
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
T.J. Tampa (CB) is on injured reserve for BAL
The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Malik Davis (RB) is on injured reserve for DAL
The Cowboys placed Davis (hip) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Audric Estime (RB) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Paulson Adebo (CB) is on injured reserve for NYG
The Giants placed Adebo (knee) on injured reserve Friday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Thomas Fidone II (TE) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Thomas Fidone II as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR
Garrett (knee) was placed on injured reserve Thursday and will miss at least four games, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 17.
REGRESSIONMIA @ CHC
Esteury Ruiz: .222 AVG vs .182 xBA
Ruiz is hitting .222, above the .182 his contact quality supports, and his wOBA of .325 also tops a .282 expected mark. That's over 237 plate appearances, enough to suggest part of the gap is real, likely his speed turning weak contact into extra hits. The average is still low itself, so this is more about clearing a low bar than hitting well. Against the Cubs, the number has some real support even though it looks unimpressive on the surface.
P 0-for-6, 0 TB
TURNOVERSARI @ SF
ARI: 1.5 takeaways per game to SF's 1
ARI is forcing 1.5 takeaways a game through two games, SF is forcing 1, a half takeaway gap. Two games is a thin sample for takeaways specifically, one of the most volatile defensive numbers there is. Arizona has been slightly more opportunistic early on. Bettors should treat this gap as noise more than a repeatable skill this early in the season.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
PHI: 1 turnovers committed per game to CHI's 1.5
PHI is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 0.88 over 17 games and CHI at 0.65 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSLAR @ DEN
DEN: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to LAR's 1
LAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 0.41 over 17 games and DEN at 0.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNE @ JAX
JAX: 1.5 takeaways per game to NE's 1
NE is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSTEN @ NYG
NYG: 1.5 takeaways per game to TEN's 1
TEN is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSKC @ MIA
KC: 1.5 takeaways per game to MIA's 1
KC is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
IND: 0.5 takeaways per game to HOU's 0
HOU is at 0 takeaways per game over 2 games; IND is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSNYJ @ DET
DET: 1.5 takeaways per game to NYJ's 1
NYJ is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; DET is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TURNOVERSLAC @ BUF
BUF: 1 takeaways per game to LAC's 0.5
BUF is forcing 1 takeaway a game through two games, LAC is forcing 0.5, a half takeaway gap. That's a tiny early sample, and takeaways are famously streaky and hard to project off two games. Buffalo has been the slightly more opportunistic defense so far. Bettors should be cautious using this much takeaway data to project turnover margin in this matchup.
TURNOVERSLAR @ DEN
DEN: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to LAR's 2
LAR is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 0.88 over 17 games and DEN at 1 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSBAL @ DAL
DAL: 0 fumbles lost per game to BAL's 0.5
BAL is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 0.71 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSBAL @ DAL
DAL: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to BAL's 1
BAL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 1.35 over 17 games and DAL at 1.24 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSTEN @ NYG
TEN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NYG's 1
TEN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 1.12 over 17 games and NYG at 1 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSHOU @ IND
HOU: 1 turnovers committed per game to IND's 1.5
HOU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and IND at 1.35 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 0 fumbles lost per game to DET's 0.5
NYJ is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 0.59 over 17 games and DET at 0.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 0 turnovers committed per game to DET's 0.5
NYJ is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCAR @ CLE
CLE: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to CAR's 1
CAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CLE is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 0.65 over 17 games and CLE at 0.41 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSCAR @ CLE
CLE: 1 turnovers committed per game to CAR's 1.5
CAR is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CLE is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 1.35 over 17 games and CLE at 1.47 over 17 games.
TRENCHESCIN @ PIT
CIN: 95.5 rushing yards per game to PIT's 74.5
CIN is at 95.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; PIT is at 74.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CIN was at 93.6 over 17 games and PIT at 103.3 over 17 games.
TRENCHESMIN @ TB
TB: 75 rushing yards allowed per game to MIN's 100
MIN is at 100 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; TB is at 75 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
RED ZONEARI @ SF
SF: 4 red-zone trips per game to ARI's 3
ARI is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; SF is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 3.59 over 17 games and SF at 3.88 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
TB: 46.2% third-down conversion rate to MIN's 39.3%
MIN is at 39.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; TB is at 46.2% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 31.8% over 17 games and TB at 41.2% over 17 games.
PASS RUSHARI @ SF
SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to ARI's 7
ARI is at 7 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; SF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season ARI was at 24.9 over 17 games and SF at 10.7 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ DAL
BAL: 60 offensive plays per game to DAL's 53
BAL is at 60 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DAL is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season BAL was at 57.3 over 17 games and DAL at 65.9 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSLV @ NO
LV: 0 fumbles lost per game to NO's 0.5
LV is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; NO is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 0.24 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Kendrick Law (WR) is on injured reserve for DET
Knee - ACL
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Dylan Sampson (RB) is on injured reserve for CLE
Sampson (knee) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 15.
TURNOVERSLV @ NO
NO: 1 interceptions thrown per game to LV's 1.5
LV is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NO is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 1.12 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSNYJ @ DET
DET: 5.4 yards per play to NYJ's 4.9
Detroit's 5.4 yards a play is down from last season's 5.97, while the Jets' 4.9 is up from a weak 4.36 a year ago, so this gap is smaller than it likely would have been last season. Detroit still shows more explosiveness, five 20-plus plays last game including three to Amon-Ra St. Brown and a 27-yard score, against two for the Jets. Two games in, Detroit's number could climb back up while the Jets level off. This looks like a real Detroit passing attack even with its average cooled from a year ago.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSNE @ JAX
JAX: 5.65 yards per play to NE's 5.15
Jacksonville's 5.65 yards a play tops New England's 5.15, but New England is the side that fell off, down from 6.23 last season while Jacksonville rose from 5.27. New England had more explosive plays last game, six 20-plus yards led by a 63-yard pass to Doubs and a 39-yard touchdown run, against three for Jacksonville. That mismatch means the gap could bounce back toward New England, with two games each still a small sample. Bettors should treat Jacksonville's edge as fragile given how many chunk plays New England already produces.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 6.9 yards per pass attempt to DET's 6
NYJ is at 6.9 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DET is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 4.28 over 17 games and DET at 7.09 over 17 games.
TRENCHESKC @ MIA
KC: 90 rushing yards allowed per game to MIA's 112.5
KC is at 90 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 112.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
TRENCHESATL @ GB
ATL: 63 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 87
ATL is at 63 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; GB is at 87 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
REGRESSIONARI @ COL
TJ Rumfield: .300 AVG vs .263 xBA
Rumfield's .300 average comes against a .263 expected mark, and his .373 wOBA is running well ahead of a .336 expected figure. With 613 plate appearances behind it, that gap has held up across close to a full season rather than a short stretch. Some regression toward the expected numbers remains possible, but this sample size suggests it's part of who he is at the plate. Against Colorado, the production looks more earned than a one-game version of this gap would be.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ BAL
Blue Jays are 6-5 vs Orioles this season
Eleven games is a big enough sample to trust, but a one game edge either way is thin. Baltimore's 4-3 win last time out tightened it further. No starters or venues are broken out, so there is no specific matchup reason in the numbers, and a series this close is basically a coin flip.
TRENCHESSEA @ WSH
WSH: 4.9 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 4.25
SEA is at 4.25 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; WSH is at 4.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season SEA was at 4.17 over 17 games and WSH at 4.81 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSTEN @ NYG
TEN: 0 interceptions thrown per game to NYG's 0.5
TEN is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NYG is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 0.47 over 17 games and NYG at 0.59 over 17 games.
TURNOVERSPHI @ CHI
CHI: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to PHI's 1
PHI is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; CHI is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season PHI was at 0.41 over 17 games and CHI at 0.41 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Myles Hinton (OT) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Myles Hinton as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
J.C. Davis (OT) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists J.C. Davis as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Dalen Cambre (WR) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Dalen Cambre as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
RETURN WATCHLAD · return listed 9/22
Gavin Stone
Stone's shoulder kept him on the 60-day, and the listing has him back today too — but there's no season line here to lean on, which tells me nothing about how he's actually throwing right now. Shoulder trouble for a starter is exactly the kind of injury that doesn't just vanish because a calendar date hit. Speculative add only — don't trust him in mixed-league lineups until he actually throws and you see a line.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Decamerion Richardson (CB) is inactive for NO
NO lists Decamerion Richardson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson (OT) is inactive for TEN
TEN lists Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Marcellas Dial Jr. (CB) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Marcellas Dial Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA
The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Collin Wright (CB) is inactive for HOU
HOU lists Collin Wright as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU
Dell (knee) agreed to take a pay cut from the Texans on Friday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Sep 4.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Keith Abney II (CB) is inactive for DET
DET lists Keith Abney II as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
David Sills V (WR) is ir-r for TB
Sills (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Sunday with a designation to return, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
TRENCHESHOU @ IND
IND: 110.5 rushing yards per game to HOU's 92
HOU is at 92 rushing yards per game over 2 games; IND is at 110.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season HOU was at 108.9 over 17 games and IND at 118.1 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Kyle Louis (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA
The Dolphins placed Louis (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Ayden Garnes (CB) is inactive for TB
TB lists Ayden Garnes as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALMIN @ TB
TB: 18 first downs per game to MIN's 15
MIN is at 15 first downs per game over 2 games; TB is at 18 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 17.2 over 17 games and TB at 19.5 over 17 games.
SITUATIONALNE @ JAX
JAX: 203.5 team passing yards per game to NE's 179.5
NE is at 179.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; JAX is at 203.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NE was at 250.5 over 17 games and JAX at 222.3 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Nate Thomas (OT) is inactive for HOU
HOU lists Nate Thomas as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Chukwuebuka Godrick (OT) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Chukwuebuka Godrick as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Parker Brailsford (C) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Parker Brailsford as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Toriano Pride Jr. (CB) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Toriano Pride Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ
The Jets placed Onyemata (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 22.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Cooper McDonald (LB) is on injured reserve for KC
The Chiefs placed McDonald (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Ahmed Hassanein (DE) is inactive for DET
DET lists Ahmed Hassanein as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Josh Fryar (OT) is inactive for ARI
ARI lists Josh Fryar as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Isaac Guerendo (RB) is pup-r for SF
Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Christian Kirk (WR) is ir-r for SF
Kirk (calf) was placed on injured reserve by the 49ers on Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
PASS RUSHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 11.5 sack yards lost per game to CLE's 17.5
CAR is at 11.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; CLE is at 17.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season CAR was at 16 over 17 games and CLE at 20.3 over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Chau Smith-Wade (CB) is inactive for CAR
CAR lists Chau Smith-Wade as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Enrique Cruz Jr. (OT) is inactive for SF
SF lists Enrique Cruz Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Ephesians Prysock (CB) is inactive for SF
SF lists Ephesians Prysock as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jamree Kromah (DE) is inactive for CHI
CHI lists Jamree Kromah as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on injured reserve for HOU
To'oTo'o (shoulder) is expected to miss more than four games, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Caleb Tiernan (OT) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Caleb Tiernan as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Ethan Onianwa (OT) is inactive for ATL
ATL lists Ethan Onianwa as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Zemaiah Vaughn (CB) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Zemaiah Vaughn as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Elijah Williams (DE) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Elijah Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Ajani Cornelius (OT) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Ajani Cornelius as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Caelen Carson (CB) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Caelen Carson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR (1-1) at DEN (1-1)
LAR and DEN are both 1-1 and both won their last game, but LAR is plus 2 on the year while DEN is down 14, a 16-point gap in margin. DEN's win already came at home, so that record is intact, while LAR hasn't played on the road yet and that split is unknown. The matching streaks make these two look even, but the margins say LAR has been the tighter team so far. DEN defending its own building is the more established trend heading into this one.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Israel Abanikanda (RB) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists Israel Abanikanda as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Adam Randall (RB) is ir-r for BAL
Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Mason Murphy (OT) is inactive for NO
NO lists Mason Murphy as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jordan Mason (RB) is on injured reserve for MIN
MIN lists Jordan Mason as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Da'Shawn Hand (DT) is on injured reserve for ATL
The Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Jordyn Tyson (WR) is ir-r for NO
Tyson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by New Orleans on Sunday. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Mason Tipton (WR) is pup-r for NO
Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jeshaun Jones (WR) is reserve-sus for MIN
The NFL suspended Jones three games Tuesday for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Aug 26.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Beaux Collins (WR) is ir-r for ATL
The Falcons placed Collins (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return during the season, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Nick Samac (C) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Nick Samac as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Malcolm DeWalt IV (CB) is inactive for ATL
ATL lists Malcolm DeWalt IV as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB) is inactive for DET
DET lists Ennis Rakestraw Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Albert Reese IV (OT) is inactive for CAR
CAR lists Albert Reese IV as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Jude Bowry (OT) is inactive for BUF
BUF lists Jude Bowry as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Isas Waxter (CB) is inactive for LAC
LAC lists Isas Waxter as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Kitan Crawford (S) is on injured reserve for ARI
The Cardinals placed Crawford (ankle) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
James Conner (RB) is ir-r for ARI
The Cardinals are placing Conner (foot) on injured reserve with a designation to return, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Wesley Williams (DE) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Wesley Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Walter Rouse (OL) is inactive for NE
NE lists Walter Rouse as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Isaac Yiadom (CB) is inactive for WSH
WSH lists Isaac Yiadom as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Travis Glover (OT) is inactive for GB
GB lists Travis Glover as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jordan Magee (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH
The Commanders placed Magee (hamstring) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jeremy McNichols (RB) is ir-r for WSH
The Commanders placed McNichols (quadriceps) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Mike Morris (DE) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Mike Morris as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Irv Charles (WR) is ir-r for SEA
Charles (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Seahawks on Sunday with a designation to return, John Boyle of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REGRESSIONWSH @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee: .268 AVG vs .233 xBA
Lee is hitting .268 against a .233 expected average, and his .329 wOBA is running ahead of a .301 expected mark. Over 340 plate appearances the gap is real but modest, more a handful of extra hits finding grass than a wild outlier. It can hold up longer than a one-game hot streak, though some pullback toward the expected numbers is the likelier direction. Against Detroit, his average is running a bit ahead of what the contact quality supports.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
FIRST INNINGWSH @ DET
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of WSH @ DET
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 7 of 10 sampled DET games and 8 of 10 sampled WSH games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Drew Anderson: 0.90 ERA, .171 opponent AVG across 10.0 IP, 0 HR; Jackson Kent: 3.86 ERA, .208 opponent AVG across 7.0 IP, 0 HR.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Gabriel Rubio (DE) is inactive for PIT
PIT lists Gabriel Rubio as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Josh Newton (CB) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Josh Newton as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Connor Lew (C) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Connor Lew as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Juice Scruggs (G) is questionable for DET
DET lists Juice Scruggs as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
PACE & SCRIPTLAR @ DEN
LAR: 58.5 offensive plays per game to DEN's 53
LAR is at 58.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DEN is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LAR was at 63.9 over 17 games and DEN at 64.2 over 17 games.
COVERAGEARI @ SF
SF: 175 passing yards allowed per game to ARI's 203
SF is allowing 175 passing yards a game through two games, ARI is allowing 203, a 28 yard gap. Both are two-game samples, an early read rather than a proven form. San Francisco's pass defense has been the tighter of the two so far this season. Bettors should watch whether that gap holds up as each defense faces more passing attacks before leaning on it heavily.
PASS RUSHNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 14.5 sack yards lost per game to DET's 20
NYJ is at 14.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 20 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 24.9 over 17 games and DET at 20.3 over 17 games.
COVERAGEBAL @ DAL
BAL: 191 passing yards allowed per game to DAL's 218
BAL is at 191 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 218 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGECAR @ CLE
CLE: 46.2% third downs allowed to CAR's 51.9%
CAR is at 51.9% third downs allowed over 2 games; CLE is at 46.2% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
RUNNING GAMECLE @ BOS
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 7%
Boston already runs 0.9 steals a game, and Hedges is catching just 7% of base stealers this season, 3 for 42 on throws. That covers the whole year, not one shaky start, so the arm has been a problem all season. Look for Boston to keep sending runners early, turning singles into scoring position without needing extra hits. That makes steals and first-to-score angles more relevant than usual tonight.
P Boston Red Sox stole 1 base
RED ZONELV @ NO
LV: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 71.4%
LV is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; NO is at 71.4% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
RETURN WATCHBAL · return listed 9/25
Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle's oblique has him listed three days out, 9/25. But even healthy, a .690 OPS wasn't doing your lineup any favors — the injury isn't really the story here, the bat was already cold before he got hurt. Not worth a stash spot unless it's a deep league and you're desperate for a corner bat — the underlying production doesn't justify the hold.
TRENCHESLV @ NO
LV: 93.5 rushing yards per game to NO's 78
LV is at 93.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; NO is at 78 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season LV was at 77.5 over 17 games and NO at 94.3 over 17 games.
COVERAGELAC @ BUF
LAC: 35.7% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.7%
LAC is at 35.7% third downs allowed over 2 games; BUF is at 40.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
COVERAGEARI @ SF
SF: 5.1 yards per play allowed to ARI's 5.5
ARI is at 5.5 yards per play allowed over 2 games; SF is at 5.1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSLV @ NO
NO: 5.1 yards per play to LV's 4.7
New Orleans' 5.1 yards a play is almost identical to last season's 5.05, and Las Vegas at 4.7 is actually up from 4.35 a year ago. The gap is modest at 0.4 yards a play and lines up with where both offenses have generally sat. Two games is limited evidence, but nothing here looks like a fluke since both numbers track with last season. This reads as a real but small efficiency edge for New Orleans rather than one likely to move much.
SITUATIONALNYJ @ DET
DET: 37.5% third-down conversion rate to NYJ's 32.3%
NYJ is at 32.3% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DET is at 37.5% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 34.9% over 17 games and DET at 38.8% over 17 games.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jayden Loving (DT) is inactive for CHI
CHI lists Jayden Loving as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Eli Stowers (TE) is on injured reserve for PHI
The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Zach Wood (LS) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 19.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
John Ridgeway III (DT) is inactive for NO
NO lists John Ridgeway III as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Tristin McCollum (S) is inactive for LV
LV lists Tristin McCollum as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
JJ Pegues (DT) is inactive for LV
LV lists JJ Pegues as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Dalton Johnson (S) is inactive for LV
LV lists Dalton Johnson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
James Houston (LB) is inactive for DAL
DAL lists James Houston as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Elijah Simmons (DT) is inactive for TB
TB lists Elijah Simmons as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
DeMonte Capehart (DT) is inactive for TB
TB lists DeMonte Capehart as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Jakobe Thomas (S) is inactive for MIN
MIN lists Jakobe Thomas as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
PASS RUSHNYJ @ DET
NYJ: 2 sacks taken per game to DET's 2.5
NYJ is at 2 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DET is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and DET at 3 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHTEN @ NYG
NYG: 2 sacks taken per game to TEN's 2.5
TEN is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; NYG is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season TEN was at 3.5 over 17 games and NYG at 2.82 over 17 games.
PASS RUSHCAR @ CLE
CAR: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to CLE's 2
CAR is at 2.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; CLE is at 2 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
PASS RUSHNYJ @ DET
DET: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to NYJ's 3
NYJ is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DET is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
PASS RUSHCIN @ PIT
CIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to PIT's 3.5
CIN is at 4 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; PIT is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
PASS RUSHNE @ JAX
NE: 3 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.5
NE is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; JAX is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Tatum Bethune (LB) is inactive for SF
SF lists Tatum Bethune as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jack Kiser (LB) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Jack Kiser as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jalen Huskey (S) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Jalen Huskey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Mike Onwenu (G) is on injured reserve for NE
The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Leonard Taylor III (DT) is inactive for NE
NE lists Leonard Taylor III as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Ricky Barber (DT) is inactive for WSH
WSH lists Ricky Barber as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Connor O'Toole (LB) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Connor O'Toole as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Kevin Jobity Jr. (DT) is inactive for PIT
PIT lists Kevin Jobity Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Landon Robinson (DT) is inactive for CIN
CIN lists Landon Robinson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Darius Alexander (DT) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Darius Alexander as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jason Pinnock (S) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Jason Pinnock as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Bobby Jamison-Travis (DT) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Bobby Jamison-Travis as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Jackie Marshall (DT) is inactive for TEN
TEN lists Jackie Marshall as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
George Gumbs Jr. (LB) is inactive for IND
IND lists George Gumbs Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Austin Ajiake (LB) is inactive for IND
IND lists Austin Ajiake as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Mekhi Wingo (DT) is inactive for DET
DET lists Mekhi Wingo as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Jimmy Rolder (LB) is inactive for DET
DET lists Jimmy Rolder as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Trevin Wallace (LB) is inactive for NYJ
NYJ lists Trevin Wallace as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Daniel Thomas (S) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Daniel Thomas as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Justin Jefferson (LB) is inactive for CLE
CLE lists Justin Jefferson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Jalon Kilgore (S) is inactive for BUF
BUF lists Jalon Kilgore as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
PASS RUSHMIN @ TB
MIN: 3 sacks taken per game to TB's 3.5
MIN is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; TB is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 21. Last season MIN was at 4 over 17 games and TB at 2.38 over 17 games.
REGRESSIONTB @ NYY
Jonny DeLuca: .259 AVG vs .232 xBA
DeLuca is hitting .259 this season, above the .232 average Statcast expected from his contact quality, and his .305 wOBA also runs ahead of a .259 expected mark. That covers 341 plate appearances, a solid season sample, not a one week blip. Statcast grades contact quality, not results, and both marks landing above expected point the same way: he gets more from his swings than the exit data credits. That gap between actual and expected numbers is the number to track as the season continues.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Bill Murray (G) is inactive for LAR
LAR lists Bill Murray as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Bryce Cabeldue (G) is inactive for LV
LV lists Bryce Cabeldue as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Carter Runyon (TE) is ir-r for LV
Runyon (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Raiders on Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Andrew Vorhees (G) is inactive for BAL
BAL lists Andrew Vorhees as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Skylar Thompson (QB) is on injured reserve for BAL
BAL lists Skylar Thompson as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Aug 19.
SITUATIONALLAR @ DEN
LAR is on a short week
LAR is on the short end here, just 1 day since its last game, while Denver had 2 days, a short week too but with a bit more breathing room. Both teams are working a compressed schedule, but the Rams have the tougher squeeze on practice time and recovery. In these short-turnaround spots, the extra time usually shows up in freshness and execution late in the game rather than on paper beforehand.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Tip Reiman (TE) is pup-r for ARI
The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
RUNNING GAMECLE @ BOS
Cleveland Guardians like to run, and Adley Rutschman (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland attempts 0.9 steals a game despite facing a catcher who throws out 35% of runners, 21 of 60 on the season, one of the stronger caught stealing rates around. Cleveland keeps sending runners anyway at that same clip. This is strength against strength, so steals tonight likely come down to jump and pitch tempo rather than an easy mismatch. Expect fewer free bases than a matchup against a weak armed catcher would allow.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Cameron Williams (OL) is on injured reserve for ATL
The Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Luke Musgrave (TE) is pup-r for GB
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that he's "really hopeful" Musgrave (neck) will be able to play at some point during the 2026 season, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports. Reported Sep 1.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Caleb Lohner (TE) is ir-r for DEN
Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Billy Schrauth (G) is inactive for TB
TB lists Billy Schrauth as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Luke Haggard (G) is inactive for TB
TB lists Luke Haggard as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONALTEN @ NYG
NYG is on a short week
NYG has almost no time to recover, just 1 day since its last game, while Tennessee got 2 days, a short week too but with a bit more time. Both teams are dealing with a compressed schedule, but the Giants have the tighter squeeze on practice time and injury recovery. Short-week spots like this usually show up in execution and depth rather than raw talent, so the 1-day turnaround for New York is the detail to watch.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Grant Calcaterra (TE) is ir-r for PHI
Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Dallen Bentley (TE) is inactive for DEN
DEN lists Dallen Bentley as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jordan McFadden (G) is inactive for CHI
CHI lists Jordan McFadden as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Micah Morris (G) is inactive for PHI
PHI lists Micah Morris as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Daniel Faalele (G) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Daniel Faalele as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Tanoa Togiai (G) is inactive for WSH
WSH lists Tanoa Togiai as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Nick Kallerup (TE) is inactive for SEA
SEA lists Nick Kallerup as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Gennings Dunker (G) is inactive for PIT
PIT lists Gennings Dunker as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Atonio Mafi (G) is inactive for TEN
TEN lists Atonio Mafi as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
DJ Campbell (G) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists DJ Campbell as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jared Wiley (TE) is inactive for KC
KC lists Jared Wiley as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Dalton Tucker (G) is inactive for IND
IND lists Dalton Tucker as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Will Mallory (TE) is ir-r for IND
Mallory (thumb) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday with a designation to return, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Joe Royer (TE) is nfi-r for CLE
The Browns placed Royer (personal) on the reserve/non-football illness list Sunday, Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G) is inactive for BUF
BUF lists Ar'maj Reed-Adams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 17.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Logan Taylor (G) is inactive for LAC
LAC lists Logan Taylor as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Alex Harkey (G) is inactive for LAC
LAC lists Alex Harkey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
John Williams (G) is inactive for GB
GB lists John Williams as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 20.
BALLPARKSTL @ PIT
Jared Jones owns a 4.68 ERA at PNC Park and 3.54 everywhere else
Jones' ERA is over a run higher at PNC Park, 4.68 against 3.54 away, over 50 home innings and 40.2 on the road, so it is not a tiny sample. Hitters bat just .215 off him there, which points to runs coming in bursts rather than steady hard contact. Against St. Louis at PNC, that low average says this is more a pitcher pattern than the park playing as a hitter's park.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
BALLPARKARI @ COL
Kyle Freeland owns a 5.82 ERA at Coors Field and 6.96 everywhere else
Freeland's Coors ERA is 5.82 against 6.96 away, over 65 home innings and 63.1 on the road, so it is not noise. Hitters bat .296 off him at home, and the worse road number says this is about a tough season more than the park. Do not fade him extra hard for pitching at home against Arizona, since both numbers are ugly.
P 3 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
BALLPARKCLE @ BOS
Payton Tolle owns a 3.55 ERA at Fenway Park and 2.50 everywhere else
Tolle's Fenway ERA is a full run higher, 3.55 against 2.50 on the road, even though hitters bat only .232 off him there. The split is close to even at 71 home innings against 72 away, so it is a real pattern. A solid average against with a higher ERA suggests damage bunched into the innings that go wrong, so pitching at Fenway has not helped him against Cleveland.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Emery Jones Jr. (OT) is inactive for BAL
BAL lists Emery Jones Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTMIN @ TB
Michael Jurgens (C) is ir-r for MIN
The Vikings placed Jurgens (undisclosed) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday, Rob Kleifield of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Alfred Collins (DT) is on injured reserve for SF
San Francisco placed Collins (knee) on injured reserve Thursday. Reported Sep 10.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Austen Pleasants (OT) is ir-r for SF
The 49ers placed Pleasants (knee) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday. Reported Sep 1.
REPLACEMENTARI @ SF
Trey Benson (RB) is on injured reserve for ARI
Benson (knee) reverted to the Cardinals' injured reserve list Tuesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. Reported Aug 25.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Bryan Thomas Jr. (DE) is inactive for JAX
JAX lists Bryan Thomas Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Zach Durfee (DE) is ir-r for JAX
The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Karon Prunty (CB) is inactive for NE
NE lists Karon Prunty as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 9.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Calvin Austin III (WR) is on injured reserve for NYG
The Giants placed Austin (knee) on injured reserve Thursday, Patricia Traina of SI.com reports. Reported Aug 27.
FIRST INNINGMIA @ CHC
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
MIA scored in the first inning in 0 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Janson Junk: 3.13 ERA, .214 opponent AVG across 23.0 IP, 3 HR.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) could return from the PUP list when first eligible in Week 5, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports. "We have a pretty good idea once we get out of that four-game window we're going to be pretty close," Gutekunst said. Reported Sep 1.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Taylor Moton (OT) is nfi-r for CAR
The Panthers transferred Moton to the reserve/non-football illness list Sunday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Ikem Ekwonu (OT) is pup-r for CAR
Ekwonu (knee) was moved to the Panthers' reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTLAC @ BUF
Mike Danna (DE) is inactive for BUF
BUF lists Mike Danna as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Collin Oliver (DE) is ir-r for GB
Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries. and is considered week-to-week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Sep 1.
SITUATIONALHOU @ IND
HOU (0-2) at IND (0-2), a division game
HOU and IND are both winless with two-game losing streaks, and their scoring margins are almost identical, HOU at minus 19 and IND at minus 21. IND's one home game this year was also a loss, and HOU hasn't played on the road yet to test that side. With records and margins this close in a division game, there's little here to separate the two teams so far. This looks more like a game about which winless team snaps its skid first.
SITUATIONALPHI @ CHI
PHI (2-0) at CHI (1-1)
PHI is unbeaten at 2-0 but only plus 6 on the season, while CHI is 1-1 yet sits at plus 16, a better margin despite the worse record. That's the record flattering PHI and underselling CHI, which has actually outscored opponents by more. CHI's one home game this year was a loss, so that split hasn't backed up its margin yet, while PHI already has a road win banked. The perfect record here doesn't match the point margin, and that gap matters more than the win-loss column.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Ja'Marcus Ingram (CB) is ir-r for HOU
The Texans placed Ingram (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Aug 30.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Kage Casey (OT) is inactive for DEN
DEN lists Kage Casey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Frank Crum (OT) is ir-r for DEN
Crum (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Kayden McDonald (DT) is on injured reserve for HOU
The Texans placed McDonald (ankle) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 12.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Jalon Walker (LB) is on injured reserve for ATL
Knee - ACL
REGRESSIONARI @ COL
Nolan Arenado: .247 AVG vs .227 xBA
Arenado is hitting .247 against a .227 expected average, a gap of only two points. His wOBA gap is wider, .338 actual against a .293 expected mark, over the same 572 plate appearances. That's a full season sample, so the wOBA gap looks like a real feature of his contact rather than noise. Against Colorado, the batting average is close to earning its keep, while the power and contact value behind the wOBA number run further ahead of what the underlying contact quality supports.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Bryan Bresee (DT) is on injured reserve for NO
Knee - ACL
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Nick Saldiveri (OT) is pup-r for NO
NO lists Nick Saldiveri as pup-r on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Darrell Luter Jr. (CB) is inactive for LV
LV lists Darrell Luter Jr. as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Corey Rucker (WR) is on injured reserve for LV
LV lists Corey Rucker as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Justin Shorter (WR) is on injured reserve for LV
LV lists Justin Shorter as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Jeremiah Webb (WR) is on injured reserve for NE
NE lists Jeremiah Webb as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Chris Collier (RB) is on injured reserve for LV
Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 2.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Trey Amos (CB) is ir-r for WSH
Amos (ankle) was placed on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE) is pup-r for WSH
Wise (undisclosed) was placed on the reserve/PUP list on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTBAL @ DAL
Chandler Rivers (CB) is inactive for BAL
BAL lists Chandler Rivers as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTSEA @ WSH
Jake Bobo (WR) is on injured reserve for SEA
SEA lists Jake Bobo as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Jack Driscoll (OT) is ir-r for PIT
The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 1.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Donte Kent (CB) is pup-r for PIT
The Steelers placed Kent (undisclosed) on the reserve/PUP list Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 1.
BALLPARKWSH @ DET
At Comerica Park, Drew Anderson pitches to a 3.10 ERA
Anderson's ERA is over a run lower at Comerica, 3.10 against 4.17 away, and hitters bat just .202 off him there. That is 23 starts and 52.1 innings at home against 49.2 on the road, not a one game fluke. The low average lines up with the lower ERA, pointing to real command at home against Washington tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Cole Burgess (WR) is on injured reserve for PIT
PIT lists Cole Burgess as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTCIN @ PIT
Ja'Sir Taylor (CB) is ir-r for CIN
The Bengals placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Geoff Hobson of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Nic Jones (CB) is inactive for NYG
NYG lists Nic Jones as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Korie Black (CB) is ir-r for NYG
Black (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Giants on Monday, Dan Salomone and Matt Citak of the team's official site report. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Gunner Olszewski (WR) is on injured reserve for NYG
NYG lists Gunner Olszewski as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTTEN @ NYG
Joshua Williams (CB) is ir-r for TEN
The Titans placed Williams (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 1.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Reese Taylor (CB) is inactive for MIA
MIA lists Reese Taylor as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Storm Duck (CB) is pup-r for MIA
Duck (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by Miami on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Darrell Baker Jr. (CB) is pup-r for MIA
Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Diego Pounds (OT) is inactive for KC
KC lists Diego Pounds as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 14.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jimmy Holiday (WR) is on injured reserve for KC
Holiday (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Chiefs on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Jeff Caldwell (WR) is on injured reserve for KC
Caldwell (knee) reverted to the Chiefs' injured reserve list Tuesday, Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports. Reported Aug 25.
REPLACEMENTKC @ MIA
Ethan Downs (LB) is on injured reserve for KC
Knee - ACL
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
Johnathan Edwards (CB) is inactive for IND
IND lists Johnathan Edwards as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTHOU @ IND
D.J. Montgomery (WR) is on injured reserve for IND
Montgomery (abdomen) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday, JJ Stankevitz of the team's official website reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Giovanni Manu (OT) is nfi-r for DET
The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Chip Trayanum (RB) is on injured reserve for NYJ
Trayanum (neck) was placed on injured reserve by the Jets on Sunday, Eric Allen & Amanda Vogt of the team's official website report. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTNYJ @ DET
Tyler Baron (DE) is pup-r for NYJ
The Jets moved Baron (knee) to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Eric Allen and Amanda Vogt of the team's official site report. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Chris Brazzell II (WR) is on injured reserve for CAR
CAR lists Chris Brazzell II as on injured reserve on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTCAR @ CLE
Nic Scourton (LB) is on injured reserve for CAR
Knee - ACL
REPLACEMENTNE @ JAX
Marcus Bryant (OT) is ir-r for NE
The Patriots placed Bryant (ankle) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTLAR @ DEN
Keagen Trost (OT) is ir-r for LAR
Trost (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Rams on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTLV @ NO
Ty Chandler (RB) is on injured reserve for NO
The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports. Reported Aug 25.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Brittain Brown (RB) is on injured reserve for CHI
Brown (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Bears on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Kyler Gordon (CB) is pup-r for CHI
Gordon (calf) is away from the Bears and working with his own trainer to accelerate his recovery, Ian Rapoport of ESPN and NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 8.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Johnny Wilson (WR) is on injured reserve for PHI
Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log. Reported Aug 22.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Jakorian Bennett (CB) is ir-r for PHI
Bennett (knee) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Eagles on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REGRESSIONWSH @ DET
Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games (.357 win rate)
Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (42 completed games). They are 59-56 in their other 115 completed games.
REGRESSIONTB @ NYY
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 70-46 in their other 116 completed games.
RUNNING GAMECIN @ ATL
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Sean Murphy has caught just 13%
Murphy has thrown out just 2 of 15 base stealers this season, a 13% caught stealing rate, a small sample of 15 attempts but not one that's given runners any reason to stop running. Cincinnati already attempts 0.9 steals a game on its own. Pairing that tendency with a catcher this exploitable raises the odds Reds baserunners just go once they reach first tonight against Atlanta.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 1 base
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Christian Harris (LB) is inactive for ATL
ATL lists Christian Harris as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 13.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Tony Fields II (LB) is ir-r for CHI
The Bears placed Fields (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ CHI
Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI
Sewell (Achilles) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Bears on Sunday. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
DeAngelo Malone (LB) is pup-r for ATL
ATL lists DeAngelo Malone as pup-r on the injury report.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Anterio Thompson (DT) is nfi-r for ATL
The Falcons moved Thompson (undisclosed) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Aug 31.
REPLACEMENTATL @ GB
Savion Williams (WR) is ir-r for GB
GB lists Savion Williams as ir-r on the injury report. Reported Sep 8.

Graded results

Games

W
Pirates ML -172
MLB · 0-2
L
Rays ML +116
MLB · 0-2
L
Tigers ML -146
MLB · 3-1
L
Braves ML -184
MLB · 4-0
W
Phillies ML -142
MLB · 4-6
W
Guardians ML +110
MLB · 3-2
W
White Sox ML -118
MLB · 14-11
W
Diamondbacks ML -194
MLB · 7-2
L
Cubs -1.5 +115
MLB · 8-2
W
Tampa Bay Rays ML +110
MLB · 6-1
L
Angels ML -108
MLB · 7-9
L
Mariners ML -142
MLB · 7-0
L
San Diego Padres ML +110
MLB · 0-7
W
Twins ML -134
MLB · 3-2
W
Mets ML +110
MLB · 6-3

Props

W
Brady Basso · under
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Carlos Rodon · over
Rays @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Rangers · Actual 4
L
Cristian Javier · over
Astros @ Mariners · Actual 0
W
Daniel Lynch IV · under
White Sox @ Royals · Actual 2
L
Denzer Guzman · under
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 4
W
George Lombard Jr. · over
Rays @ Yankees · Actual 2
L
Geraldo Perdomo · under
Diamondbacks @ Rockies · Actual 5
W
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Marlins @ Cubs · Actual 2
W
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Phillies · Actual 1
W
Jazz Chisholm Jr. · over
Rays @ Yankees · Actual 1
L
JR Ritchie · over
Reds @ Braves · Actual 1
W
JR Ritchie · over
Reds @ Braves · Actual 3
W
Ketel Marte · under
Diamondbacks @ Rockies · Actual 1
W
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Cubs · Actual 7
W
Logan Gilbert · over
Astros @ Mariners · Actual 4
L
MacKenzie Gore · under
Mets @ Rangers · Actual 15
W
Nathan Church · over
Cardinals @ Pirates · Actual 1
W
Nick Martinez · over
Rays @ Yankees · Actual 5
W
Payton Tolle · over
Guardians @ Red Sox · Actual 17
L
Ronny Simon · over
Cardinals @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Taj Bradley · over
Twins @ Giants · Actual 3
L
Taj Bradley · over
Twins @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Yohandy Morales · over
Nationals @ Tigers · Actual 0