Rays at Yankees
O/U 2.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
Rays MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Rays ML +116
- Published odds
- +116
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 0-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
Rays MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +110
- Published odds
- +110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 6-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 22 5:00 AM | Close Sep 22 12:46 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-125) | 6.5 (-120) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -130 | Yankees -145 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 22 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | 7 (-125) | Yankees -130 · Rays +105 |
| Sep 22 6:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+165) | 7 (-125) | Yankees -130 · Rays +105 |
| Sep 22 7:15 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+165) | 7 (-115) | Yankees -125 · Rays +105 |
| Sep 22 8:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | 7 (-115) | Yankees -130 · Rays +105 |
| Sep 22 9:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | 7 (-115) | Yankees -125 · Rays +105 |
| Sep 22 10:51 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | 7 (-105) | Yankees -125 · Rays +105 |
| Sep 22 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -140 · Rays +115 |
| Sep 22 11:09 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-110) | Yankees -135 · Rays +110 |
| Sep 22 12:05 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6.5 (-120) | Yankees -135 · Rays +115 |
| Sep 22 12:35 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | 6.5 (-120) | Yankees -145 · Rays +120 |
| CLOSESep 22 12:46 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6.5 (-120) | Yankees -145 · Rays +120 |
The read: Rays ML
Bronx matinee, first game of a doubleheader, division leaders in for four with the Yankees needing a sweep to keep the East alive. Nick Martinez against Carlos Rodón, and I am taking the plus money on Tampa Bay.
The pick rides on two things: the bullpens and the price. In the tracked window the Rays' relievers are running a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while the Yankees' pen sits at 4.14 and 1.40, and this is Game 1 of a doubleheader, so neither manager can empty the pen with a nightcap still to play. That squeeze hurts the thinner, worse pen, and that is New York's. Bryan Baker has 40 saves and a 1.49 ERA and has not worked since Saturday. On the other side Boone bypassed David Bednar for Michael Fulmer on Saturday and paid for it, Brent Headrick has a 6.75 ERA over his last seven with three inherited runners scoring Sunday, John Schreiber gave up two runs Sunday, and Clarke Schmidt's Sunday biceps scare is unresolved. If Rodón hands over a one-run lead after five or six, I trust the Tampa pen to hold twelve outs far more than I trust New York's. Then the starters: Martinez has walked 24 batters in 171.1 innings this year and two in his last five starts, while Rodón has walked 38 in 76.1 innings and allows hard contact on 39.1 percent of balls in play. Both carry a 2.9 ERA with an xERA near 4.0, so the market at -134 is paying home-field money for a Rodón number that is no more solid than Martinez's. The Rays are 40-34 on the road, so this is close to a coin flip at this venue, and I am getting +116 on the better team with the better pen.
The best argument against me is real: Martinez is a fly-ball righty who has allowed four homers in his last five starts, and he is walking into the short porch against Rice, García, Bellinger, and Jones with the Yankees posting a .365 expected wOBA over their last three games. Two swings can end this. I take the Rays anyway because the wind is blowing in, Tampa is 8-2 in its last ten allowing about two runs a game, and the part of this game the Yankees have to win with their bullpen is the part they are worst equipped to win today.
The read: Tampa Bay Rays ML
Under the lights at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 of a same-day doubleheader, Max Fried takes the ball for New York against Drew Rasmussen and the AL East-leading Rays — and the market has hung a modest -130 on the home side. I'm going the other way and taking Tampa Bay at plus money.
The two starters are close to dead even on recent run prevention — five earned runs apiece over their last five starts — but they get there very differently. Fried has averaged just under five innings a start (24.2 IP over five), while Rasmussen has been a genuine workhorse at roughly 6.2 innings a start (31.0 IP). In a game the market itself expects to be low-scoring (total 6 to 6.5), that innings gap matters: it hands the stronger late-game unit more of the game. Tampa Bay's bullpen has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the tracked sample, with closer Bryan Baker (1.49 ERA, 40 saves) fully rested at two days off. New York's relief corps sits at 4.04 and 1.37 — and its closer, David Bednar, already worked Game 1 of this doubleheader. More innings from the weaker pen, fewer from the stronger one.
Tampa is also the hotter and better team — 8-2 in its last ten while allowing just 2.0 runs a game, 95-60 on the season, and it has won 11 straight Rasmussen starts. The Rays lead the season series 6-4, and eight of those ten meetings were decided by one or two runs — exactly the tight, pitching-first shape this game projects to take.
The honest case against me is real: New York stacks seven left-handed bats against a righty who has surrendered 10 of his 14 homers to lefties, and Ben Rice (.937 OPS vs RHP) and Luis García Jr. (.884) are the bats that punish that. But Rasmussen still holds lefties to a .215/.587 line overall, a 13 mph wind is blowing in from left, and the market has already paid up for the home side. At +110, I'll take the better bullpen, the longer starter, and the hotter team.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
.884Luis Garcia Jr. carries an .884 OPS against righties over 421 at-bats, well clear of his .629 mark against lefties in 81 at-bats. The right side is the larger sample and the hand he hits best. He bats cleanup tonight against right hander Nick Martinez, so the platoon lines up his way. A split with 421 at-bats behind it is the kind that tends to hold.
Ben Rice (bats L) hits 1st against Nick Martinez (RHP)
.937Ben Rice owns a .937 OPS against righties over 358 at-bats against .797 in 193 at-bats the other way, and 358 at-bats is a real sample on the strong side. He bats first tonight against right hander Nick Martinez, so the platoon lines up in his favor. The split has enough data behind it to hold rather than correct. His spot at the top of the order gives it more chances to play out.
HEAT CHECK
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.270 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.270A 1.270 OPS over 38 at bats is more than four tenths above his .825 season mark, and 14 home runs back the power. Thirty eight at bats is short, so some cooling is reasonable. The total bases line is 0.5 against the Yankees, a low bar for a bat running this hot.
COOLING OFF
Yandy Diaz: .444 OPS in Last 15 Days
.444A .444 OPS over 50 at bats is a big drop from his .807 season mark, a fall of 0.363. Two weeks is small enough that one cold stretch swings it, and the season line is nearly double the recent number. Weight the .807 far more heavily than the last two weeks in this Rays at Yankees series.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
IN 12A 12 mph wind blowing in from left field at Yankee Stadium under sunny skies and 63 degrees is enough to knock fly balls down before they reach the seats. Tonight's Rays at Yankees total sits at 7, a low number that leans on contact and defense over raw power. This is a reading tied to tonight's forecast, so it can ease off by first pitch. Sides banking on a lower scoring game get the most from it.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Rays are 6-3 vs Yankees this season
6-3Nine meetings is enough to call this a real trend, and Tampa Bay has won more often than not. New York's last win was a 12-4 blowout, and no pitching or park detail explains the split. One lopsided score against six wins does not erase the season pattern.
TEAM RECORD
Rays 6-2 in Nick Martinez's last 8 starts
6-2Six wins in eight starts is his full season, so it leans on his own outings plus the offense and bullpen behind him. Two losses in eight leaves room to move with one or two results. He faces the Yankees tonight, and the 6-2 log is the number to weigh.
REGRESSION
Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .263 xBA
.263Simpson's .309 average sits well above the .263 Statcast expected off his contact, and his .308 wOBA also beats a .266 expected mark. That gap spans 597 plate appearances, a full season sample, not a short stretch. Statcast measures contact quality, not results, and a gap this size holding for a full season suggests his production is more real than the models suggest. For hitting props tonight, his season long average looks like the more reliable number to lean on.
Jonny DeLuca: .259 AVG vs .232 xBA
.232DeLuca is hitting .259 this season, above the .232 average Statcast expected from his contact quality, and his .305 wOBA also runs ahead of a .259 expected mark. That covers 341 plate appearances, a solid season sample, not a one week blip. Statcast grades contact quality, not results, and both marks landing above expected point the same way: he gets more from his swings than the exit data credits. That gap between actual and expected numbers is the number to track as the season continues.
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
25-14Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 70-46 in their other 116 completed games.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 22, 2026 at 11:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKNICK MARTINEZPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5
Martinez has cleared 4.5 hits in six of his last eight starts: 5, 2, 5, 7, 1, 9, 8, 6. His season line is 5.5 hits allowed per start across 29 turns, and this is a contact profile rather than a swing and miss one. His sinker draws a whiff on 10.3 percent of swings and his cutter on 12.2 percent, so the Yankees will put the ball in play, and they bring four left-handed bats and a .713 OPS against right-handed pitching into a park with a 314 foot porch in right. He has served up 21 home runs in 29 starts and four in his last five, and the Rays have been trimming his innings in September, with his most recent start ending after five, which caps how deep he can go to keep the hit count down.
The strongest case against me: Martinez has handled this Yankees lineup twice this year at a 1.69 ERA with the team winning both, New York is batting .229 against right-handers on the season, and he takes the ball on five days rest after a 2.94 ERA season. At minus 135 I need five or more hits in roughly 57 percent of his starts, and his recent rate of 75 percent and his season rate both sit above that bar.
- GARY'S PICKCARLOS RODONPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
Rodon has walked 38 batters in 76.1 innings, 2.5 per start, and his last eight starts read 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, 2. That is over this number in six of eight. He is averaging 15.3 outs per start, so Tampa gets a third look at him, and the Rays work a walk in about nine percent of their plate appearances, which is roughly two free passes across a 23 to 25 batter game. His command was the flagged issue in his first start back from the elbow problem, and the early count trouble was visible on the tape.
The contrary evidence is the price and the split. Minus 165 is steep when I need two walks, he handed out one or none in two of his last eight, and the Rays carry a .688 OPS against left-handed pitching, their weaker side of the platoon. I still take it because the walk rate is baked into the season line and the short, traffic heavy outing points to multiple passes in a game where he has to go through a patient order more than once.
- GARY'S PICKGEORGE LOMBARD JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5
George Lombard Jr. bats seventh for the Yankees against Drew Rasmussen, and I want the over on his hits plus runs plus RBIs at 0.5, priced -152. He has landed on the good side of this number in 10 of his last 15 games, and his season line of 1.8 combined per game across 38 games says he clears a single event more often than not, even out of the bottom third of the order.
The recent bat is the pull. Over the last seven days he is 7 for 22 with two home runs (.318 average, .939 OPS), and over 15 days he is 10 for 43 with three homers. In this market his game log reads 1, 5, 0, 6, 3, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, so when he connects the runs and RBIs arrive in bunches, which is what lifts a combined line. He sees about 3.9 plate appearances a game, and Rasmussen has never faced him, so there is no head-to-head history working against him.
The honest pushback: he is a rookie with a .290 on-base and a modest .386 slugging, and five of those last 15 games were clean zeroes, so the floor is real. Hitting seventh also caps his chances. At -152 the market wants roughly 60 percent, and the 10 of 15 clip plus the 1.8 per game track record sits above that.
- GARY'S PICKJAZZ CHISHOLM JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back in the lineup tonight and hits sixth for the Yankees, and I am taking the over on his hits plus runs plus RBIs at 0.5, priced -155. He has cleared this number in 12 of his last 15 games, and he sits at 1.7 combined per game across 133 games on the season.
He is a left-handed bat in this order, and his split against right-handers (.237 average, .742 OPS) is the better half of his season line, which matters against a right-handed starter. Before the wrist problem he was swinging well in September, .333 with a .900 OPS over 18 at-bats, and in this market his game log reads 2, 1, 0, 1, 6, 1, 5, 2, 0, 1, 5, 2, 6, 2, 0. He also runs, with 40 steals on the season, so a single can become a run without much help behind him.
The strongest case against: this is his first game back from a right wrist sprain, so those last-15 numbers come from before the stint and I am buying a stale sample. A wrist is the joint that governs the swing, and he is 2 for 12 in his career against Rasmussen. At -155 the price is steep for a player shaking off rust, and that is the risk I am accepting.
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