Cardinals at Pirates
O/U 4.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pirates ML -172
- Published odds
- -172
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 0-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 17 moves| Market | Opened Sep 22 5:00 AM | Close Sep 22 6:35 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pirates -1.5 (+145) | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (+105) | 7 (-130) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Pirates -150 | Pirates -170 | −20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 22 5:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+145) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -150 · Cardinals +125 |
| Sep 22 6:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+145) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -150 · Cardinals +125 |
| Sep 22 7:15 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+145) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -150 · Cardinals +125 |
| Sep 22 8:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -155 · Cardinals +125 |
| Sep 22 9:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -155 · Cardinals +125 |
| Sep 22 10:51 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7.5 (+100) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 11:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 12:35 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 2:24 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 2:47 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+125) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 3:37 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 3:47 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -170 · Cardinals +140 |
| Sep 22 4:29 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+125) | 7 (-125) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 5:25 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -175 · Cardinals +145 |
| Sep 22 5:40 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -170 · Cardinals +140 |
| Sep 22 5:40 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -170 · Cardinals +140 |
| Sep 22 6:05 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -165 · Cardinals +135 |
| CLOSESep 22 6:35 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-130) | Pirates -170 · Cardinals +140 |
The read
Tuesday night at PNC Park, 59 degrees with a 14 mph wind blowing in off the river, and two eliminated clubs open Pittsburgh's final home series with Jared Jones against Andre Pallante. The standings say both are playing for nothing, so this one comes down to the arms and the ninth inning. Two things carry my pick. First, the mound mismatch runs deeper than the ERAs. Jones owns a slider with a 41.5 percent whiff rate on 523 pitches, and the two Cardinals bats that matter most are exposed to it. Burleson posts a .336 xwOBA against sliders on 83 plate appearances and Walker a .206 on 100. Jones has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 15 starts, carries a 2.75 ERA over his last five, and struck out nine Brewers his last time out.
Pallante is the opposite profile. He is a 6.2 K/9 pitcher whose strikeout rate has slipped to 4.7 over his last five turns, and he walks into a lineup where seven of nine hitters bat left-handed against his .703 OPS allowed to lefties on 321 at-bats. Oneil Cruz hits .337 with a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers on 111 plate appearances, and Pallante throws that pitch 33.8 percent of the time with a 14.9 percent whiff rate. Cruz is slashing .318/.407/.533 since coming off the injured list, and Pittsburgh is 52-41 with him in the lineup. Then the ninth inning belongs to Pittsburgh. Mason Montgomery has not allowed a run in 23 and two-thirds innings dating to July 26. Riley O'Brien has 38 saves but nine blown, and reporting puts his post-break ERA at 10.80. In a game with a total of 7 to 7.5, where one run decides it, that closer gap is the edge.
The best argument against me is Pallante's road split, a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings backed by a 4.9 percent barrel rate and a cleaner infield behind him at .987. That is real, and it is why I am not touching the run line. But his 4.04 xERA says the market is already paying for a fragile number, his last start was six earned on 99 pitches, and a contact pitcher who cannot miss bats is a bad fit against this many lefties. Paying -172 for a 79-77 team is steep, and I would rather have it at Caesars' -164, but the starter, the platoon fit, and the closer all point the same direction. Pirates to win.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Jared Jones: 1.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.50An 18 inning, 3 earned run, 26 strikeout stretch works out to a 1.50 ERA, 2.67 runs better than his 4.17 season number. The strikeouts back up the run prevention, so this is more than an ERA outlier. Three starts is still small and some of that gap should close toward the season rate.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Jared Jones (RHP)
.934Burleson has hit right handers hard this season, a .934 OPS in 398 at-bats, well ahead of his .552 mark against lefties in 188 tries. Jared Jones is a right hander tonight and Burleson hits third, right where that split works in his favor. That's a full season of at-bats on each side, not a short sample, so it looks like a real read on him. The order and the matchup point the same direction for his production tonight.
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Andre Pallante (RHP), batting 2nd
.915Lowe has a .915 OPS against right handers this season in 380 at-bats, well above the .635 he has against lefties in 185 tries. Andre Pallante is a right hander tonight and Lowe hits second, a spot that lines up with his stronger side. That gap comes from a full season on both sides, a real read on him rather than a blended number. A righty starter with Lowe batting second is where the split should matter most.
COOLING OFF
Jordan Walker: .372 OPS in Last 15 Days
.372.372 over the last 42 at bats is more than four tenths off his .806 season line, and that stretch covers about three weeks. A cold run swings a sample this small hard. Given how far off his norm this is, it likely bends back toward his usual production against Pittsburgh.
BALLPARK
Jared Jones owns a 4.68 ERA at PNC Park and 3.54 everywhere else
4.68Jones' ERA is over a run higher at PNC Park, 4.68 against 3.54 away, over 50 home innings and 40.2 on the road, so it is not a tiny sample. Hitters bat just .215 off him there, which points to runs coming in bursts rather than steady hard contact. Against St. Louis at PNC, that low average says this is more a pitcher pattern than the park playing as a hitter's park.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 14 mph at PNC Park tonight
IN 14Fourteen miles an hour blowing straight in from center at PNC Park tonight turns fly balls into outs instead of homers. It's just tonight's reading, but a steady wind like that consistently caps power more than it caps line drives and walks. The total sits at 7 for Cardinals and Pirates, so the number already has some scoring built in, and the wind mainly works against anything hit for distance rather than the running game or shorter routes.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 6-4 vs Pirates this season
6-4Ten games is a full season series, so the Cardinals' edge reflects real results. Pittsburgh took the last meeting 5-4 in a tight one, and no starters or venue splits explain the split. A close division series can swing any night, and the last meeting shows it already has.
STREAK
PIT have won 4 straight
W4Pittsburgh has won four straight, outscoring teams by 8 runs over that run. They're 6-4 over their last 10 games, so the streak accounts for most of that stretch but not all of it.
TEAM RECORD
Pirates 2-6 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts
2-6Two wins in eight starts is his entire season rather than a bad recent run, so it points to a broader pattern in his games. Eight outings is a small sample and a couple of different results change the picture. He is home against St. Louis tonight with that 2-6 mark as the backdrop.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 22, 2026 at 11:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKNATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Church bats eighth and plays center field, and this ticket is the widest of the three ways to win at -162: one hit, one run scored, or one run driven in clears it. His role is settled, 126 games and 416 at-bats with 3.6 plate appearances a night, so there is no guessing about whether he is in there for four trips. The season rate is 1.7 hits plus runs plus RBI per game, and the number has come in for him in 12 of his last 15.
What I like tonight is the shape of his bat and the recent read on this starter. Church is 15 for 46 over the last 15 days and hitting .328 in September across 64 at-bats, a full turnaround from a July when he hit .145 across 76 at-bats. His strikeout rate sits around 18 percent, so he puts the bat on the ball and gives himself live trips. St. Louis also saw Jared Jones on August 28 and put seven hits on him across 4.2 innings with a home run. Jones has thrown 90.2 innings over 19 starts, so Church's later trips likely come against the Pittsburgh pen rather than against Jones a third time.
The case against is Jones right now. He carries a 1.50 ERA over 18 September innings with 26 strikeouts and four walks in his last three starts, he throws a slider 35 percent of the time that misses bats 41.5 percent of the time, and he has held left-handed hitters to .216 across 199 at-bats. The lineup slot is the other problem. Church hits eighth in front of Masyn Winn and his .629 OPS, behind a bottom third that has gone cold, which thins the run and RBI paths and leaves most of this riding on his own knock. Wind at 11 miles an hour in from center at 61 degrees trims the extra-base version too. Break-even at this price is just under 62 percent, and a regular with his contact profile and his current form gets there. Give me the over.
- GARY'S PICKRONNY SIMONHITS OVER 0.5
Simon hits seventh in right field and the price is -160 that he collects one hit. The case starts with who is throwing. Andre Pallante is a 6.2 strikeout per nine pitcher whose four-seam draws whiffs on 14.9 percent of swings and whose sinker draws 10.4 percent, with a 1.73 ground out to air out ratio on the season. He gets outs by letting hitters put the ball in play, which is the friendliest arm profile there is for a one-hit line: more balls in play means more chances for one to land. Simon has struck out seven times in 48 at-bats, so he is going to make contact and take his chances. He switch hits, which puts him on the left side tonight, and Pallante has allowed .255 with a .703 OPS to left-handed bats over 321 at-bats against .244 and .639 to righties.
Form backs it. Simon is 6 for 16 over the last seven days with a home run, he has hit safely in 11 of the 15 games the market logs, and this slot projects for 3.5 plate appearances with Pittsburgh at home and favored.
The argument against is the sample, and it is a real one. Everything I just said about Simon rests on 48 at-bats across 15 games, and a .313 average on that many trips is one warm week away from being a .260 average. Pallante has been a different pitcher away from Busch Stadium, a 2.76 ERA over 65.1 road innings with a 4.9 percent barrel rate, and his ground ball tilt feeds a lot of routine outs to the middle infield. He also gave Pittsburgh six innings of one-run ball at this park in April. I need roughly 62 percent at this price, and the low-whiff arm plus the left-side platoon edge gets me past it. One hit.
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