Cardinals at Pirates
O/U 8.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · PNC Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -134
- Published odds
- -134
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 5-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 20 moves| Market | Opened Sep 23 5:00 AM | Close Sep 23 6:35 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pirates +1.5 (-205) | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-120) | 7.5 (+100) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Pirates -120 | Pirates -140 | −20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 23 5:00 AM | Pirates +1.5 (-205) | 7.5 (-120) | Pirates -120 · Cardinals +100 |
| Sep 23 7:15 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+165) | 7.5 (-110) | Pirates -120 · Cardinals +100 |
| Sep 23 8:00 AM | Pirates +1.5 (-205) | 7.5 (-110) | Pirates -120 · Cardinals +100 |
| Sep 23 9:26 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 10:06 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 10:06 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 11:22 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 12:29 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+100) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 3:26 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:05 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:23 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:30 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+105) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:35 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:44 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:49 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 4:53 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 5:08 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 6:05 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| Sep 23 6:25 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-120) | Pirates -145 · Cardinals +120 |
| Sep 23 6:26 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-135) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
| CLOSESep 23 6:35 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+100) | Pirates -140 · Cardinals +115 |
The read
Game two at PNC Park. The wind is blowing in from center at 12 mph, and Pittsburgh hands the ball to Lake Bachar to open a bullpen game against Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore. My pick comes down to which pitching staff handles the middle and late innings better, and that starts with Liberatore. His 5.36 ERA isn't a shaky number the market is overreacting to. His 5.02 xERA and 41.9% hard-hit rate say he's earned most of it. In each of his last five starts he's gone between 4.0 and 6.0 innings, and he was pulled at 69 and 72 pitches in two of them. That leaves 12 to 15 outs for a St. Louis bullpen that has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in its recent relief work, with 26 walks in 44 innings. Setup man George Soriano has allowed 12 hits and 8 walks in 8 innings over the last 30 days.
Pittsburgh's top relievers were reported available by name for tonight: - Mason Montgomery: no earned runs in 13.1 innings over the last 30 days - Yohan Ramirez: 14 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.2 innings in that span - Carmen Mlodzinski: 2.50 ERA - Brandon Eisert
Bachar's 3.56 ERA sits on a 3.52 xERA, so his roughly two innings to open the game rest on something solid. The Pirates are also the better offense, with a .736 team OPS to the Cardinals' .695. St. Louis has scored 3.2 runs per game over its last five. Pittsburgh has run this setup before, going 5-2 in Bachar's seven openings with the club and allowing 3.0 runs per game, though that's a small sample.
The best case against Pittsburgh is the middle of its bullpen game. The Pirates need roughly 21 outs from relievers, and the innings between Bachar and the late-inning arms likely go to a rookie like Antwone Kelly (5.02 ERA) or Khristian Curtis (8.68 ERA over the last 30 days). Luke Weaver and Gregory Soto both pitched last night, and nobody has reported whether they can go. Kirby Yates is back after 23 days off. With Paul Skenes starting a 12:35 PM game tomorrow, Pittsburgh has a reason to save arms, and Oneil Cruz is on the bench against the lefty. I'm taking Pittsburgh anyway. That weak stretch is about three innings, and Wilber Dotel (1.35 ERA over the last 30 days) is in that group too. The Cardinals' weak bottom of the order also has to produce in a pitcher's park with the wind blowing in. At -134 I'm paying a fair price, not getting a bargain. The market's total of 7 to 7.5 says this could be a tight game, so I'll take the moneyline rather than give 1.5 runs.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
BATTER VS ARM
Bryan Reynolds vs Matthew Liberatore: .333
.333Reynolds is 4-for-12 with a home run against Liberatore, so he has hit him well in the few times they have met. Twelve at-bats is too small a sample to count on, and he comes in cold with a .639 OPS over the last 15 days. When a good head-to-head record meets a slump, the recent slump usually tells you more. Keep that in mind before paying up for Reynolds props in Pittsburgh.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Lake Bachar (RHP)
.934Burleson hits right-handers hard and drops to .552 against lefties. The .934 comes from 398 AB, a large sample, so the split is stable. Lake Bachar is a righty, so Burleson has the edge from the 3rd spot early. A lefty reliever late takes it away, so his first trips against Bachar carry the most value.
HEAT CHECK
Brandon Lowe: 1.096 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.096Lowe's run over 41 AB sits on an .819 season mark, and his 33 home runs are the most in this group, so the power is part of who he is. Expect a mild pullback toward .819. His total-bases line at PIT is 0.5, so one hit clears it, a modest bar for his profile.
Rafael Flores Jr.: 1.194 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.194Flores has done this over 39 AB on top of an excellent .895 season, so the floor is high. His 10 home runs show less pop than the OPS suggests. His total-bases line at PIT is 1.5, which needs extra bases or two hits, and the modest power makes that tougher than it looks.
COOLING OFF
Jordan Walker: .390 OPS in Last 15 Days
.390A .390 OPS over his last 38 at bats is down sharply from his .802 season mark. That gap over just 15 days points to a cold stretch rather than a change in who he is as a hitter, and 38 at bats can move fast with a couple of good games. Facing Pittsburgh next, the season number remains the more trustworthy read until the recent stretch starts closing the gap.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 12 mph at PNC Park tonight
IN 12PNC Park already plays big to left-center, and a 12 mph wind in from center at 63° makes long fly balls even less likely to leave. Hitters who drive the ball up the middle lose the most. The total is 7.5, a half run above the other wind-in games, so the market is giving this one room. That gap is the angle if the wind decides the scoring.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 6-5 vs Pirates this season
6-5The Cardinals are 6-5 against Pittsburgh and lost the last meeting 2-0. Eleven games is a real sample for a one-game edge. Pittsburgh took the most recent meeting, which is the part that sticks with bettors.
STREAK
PIT have won 5 straight
W5Pittsburgh has won 5 straight with a plus-10 run margin and sits 6-4 over its last 10. The margin is modest for a 5-game streak, which fits a run of close games. Five games is short, so the streak is context and not a rating.
TEAM RECORD
Cardinals 1-7 in Matthew Liberatore's last 8 starts
1-7One win in Matthew Liberatore's last eight starts is a team number, covering the offense and bullpen as much as him. Eight starts is a thin sample, and run support can swing fast from one game to the next. Facing Pittsburgh tonight, the smarter angle is how St. Louis's bats and bullpen have performed behind him rather than treating 1-7 as a verdict on his pitching.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Brandon Lowe
WATCHWATCH: Lowe's power surge runs into a tough platoon matchup Why now: Lowe has 4 HR and 10 RBI over his last 10 games, but probable Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore throws left-handed, and Lowe carries just a .635 OPS against lefties this season versus .915 against righties. Today's Pittsburgh lineup hasn't posted; he batted second on 9/22. Who it fits: Power-category rosters deciding whether to trust a same-handed-disadvantage matchup against a struggling arm. The risk: Liberatore has been rough lately (7.03 ERA, 1.73 WHIP over his last five starts), which could offset the platoon disadvantage; today's lineup is unconfirmed. Watch next: Pittsburgh's confirmed lineup and batting order before first pitch. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 23, 06:40 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 23, 2026 at 11:21 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm, draftkings.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKMATTHEW LIBERATOREPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
I'm taking Matthew Liberatore over 1.5 earned runs at -175. That's an expensive price, and his record supports it. He has allowed two or more earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. Newest first, those starts went 1, 2, 5, 3, 8, 3, 2, 5. Across 30 starts he averages 3.0 earned runs with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Hitters make hard contact against him: a 41.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.2% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters have an .824 OPS and 20 home runs against him this season, and his first-inning ERA is 5.70 over 30 innings.
Pittsburgh's lineup tonight is built to take advantage of that. Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and Jacob Gonzalez are all on the bench, which leaves four right-handed bats and three switch hitters. Konnor Griffin leads off with a .325 average and an .837 OPS against lefties. Rafael Flores Jr. hits second with a .917 OPS against lefties, and he is 9 for 17 over the last seven days. Bryan Reynolds is 6 for 18 with a home run in his career against Liberatore. The last time Liberatore saw this club, on August 30, he gave up 3 earned runs and 2 home runs in 5.2 innings.
The short leash also helps the over. He has come out at 69 and 72 pitches in recent starts. If Marmol pulls him with runners on base, any of those runners who score are charged to Liberatore, and the Cardinals bullpen is near the bottom of the league at stranding runners.
The strongest case against this bet is the Pirates' record against lefties. They are 18-32 against left-handed starters with a .700 OPS against lefties. PNC plays in the pitcher's favor, and the wind is blowing in from center at 12 mph. Pittsburgh scored only two runs last night. Liberatore's most recent start was his best in weeks: 6 innings and 1 earned run against the Giants. At -175 I need about 64% to break even. His run history against a right-handed lineup puts him closer to 68%, so the edge is real but small.
- GARY'S PICKNATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Nathan Church over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -178. He has cleared this line in 12 of his last 15 games and averages 1.6 per game this season across 127 games. He's also swinging a hot bat. He is hitting .333 with an .857 OPS over the last 15 days and .328 in September. He had the only hit off Jared Jones last night, a double to the opposite field that ended the perfect game in the sixth.
The matchup comes from how Pittsburgh is covering this game. Lake Bachar opens and usually goes about two innings. Batting eighth, Church may face him once or not at all. Most of his plate appearances will likely come in the middle innings against rookie righties: Antwone Kelly with a 5.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, Khristian Curtis with 11 walks in 17.1 innings, or Wilber Dotel with a 4.58 ERA. Church is a left-handed hitter with a .256 average against righties, and 8 of his 10 home runs have come off them. Bachar himself allows a .696 OPS to lefties against .581 to righties. This line also pays on a run or an RBI, so a walk that comes around to score is enough.
The risks are real. From the eighth spot he averages only 3.6 plate appearances, so there are fewer chances to cash. He is 0 for 4 in his career against Bachar. Against lefties he drops to .239 with a .627 OPS, and Pittsburgh can close with Mason Montgomery or Brandon Eisert, both left-handed. The Cardinals managed one hit last night and have scored 3.2 runs per game over their last five, and the wind in from center makes it harder for the whole lineup. At -178 I need about 64% to break even. His recent form and his likely matchups against right-handed middle relief put him near 67%, so this is a thin edge.
I'm passing on Brandon Lowe's home run at +550. He faces a lefty tonight, and he has only 7 home runs in 185 at-bats against lefties this year. The wind is blowing in at PNC, so the price doesn't pay enough.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day