Reds at Braves
O/U 7.5 · RL Braves -1.5 · Truist Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Braves -1.5 -114
- Published odds
- -114
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 2-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 18 moves| Market | Opened Sep 23 5:00 AM | Close Sep 23 7:10 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Braves -1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-118) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (+101) | 7 (-112) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Braves -259 | Braves -279 | −20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 23 5:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (-105) | 7.5 (+101) | Braves -259 · Reds +209 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (-105) | 7.5 (+101) | Braves -256 · Reds +207 |
| Sep 23 7:15 AM | Braves -1.5 (-105) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -263 · Reds +211 |
| Sep 23 8:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (-108) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -264 · Reds +213 |
| Sep 23 10:55 AM | Braves -1.5 (-114) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -279 · Reds +223 |
| Sep 23 11:15 AM | Braves -1.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -265 · Reds +213 |
| Sep 23 11:22 AM | Braves -1.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -269 · Reds +216 |
| Sep 23 11:35 AM | Braves -1.5 (-113) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -271 · Reds +217 |
| Sep 23 12:29 PM | Braves -1.5 (-115) | 7.5 (+100) | Braves -271 · Reds +218 |
| Sep 23 3:26 PM | Braves -1.5 (-115) | 7.5 (+101) | Braves -272 · Reds +218 |
| Sep 23 4:15 PM | Braves -1.5 (-115) | 7.5 (+102) | Braves -277 · Reds +222 |
| Sep 23 4:30 PM | Braves -1.5 (-115) | 7.5 (+102) | Braves -277 · Reds +222 |
| Sep 23 4:35 PM | Braves -1.5 (-115) | 7 (-122) | Braves -277 · Reds +222 |
| Sep 23 4:44 PM | Braves -1.5 (-115) | 7 (-118) | Braves -277 · Reds +222 |
| Sep 23 4:53 PM | Braves -1.5 (-118) | 7 (-118) | Braves -277 · Reds +222 |
| Sep 23 6:35 PM | Braves -1.5 (-118) | 7 (-117) | Braves -278 · Reds +223 |
| Sep 23 6:55 PM | Braves -1.5 (-118) | 7 (-115) | Braves -278 · Reds +223 |
| Sep 23 7:10 PM | Braves -1.5 (-118) | 7 (-112) | Braves -279 · Reds +223 |
| CLOSESep 23 7:10 PM | Braves -1.5 (-118) | 7 (-112) | Braves -279 · Reds +223 |
The read
Chris Sale takes the Truist Park mound for his last regular-season start before October. The Reds, who shut Atlanta out last night, hand the ball to Andrew Abbott with a chance to win the series. I'll say it up front: I've bled red my whole life, and this isn't the card my heart wanted to write. The pick comes down to who pitches the middle innings. Sale has a 2.12 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.66 ERA at home. Abbott has a 9.15 ERA and 6 homers allowed in 19.2 innings over his last five, at 3.9 innings per start, and he walked 5 on 98 pitches last time out. That leaves a lot of outs for a Reds bullpen whose top three arms, Burke, Antone and Pagán, all pitched last night. Nobody has reported whether they're available tonight. After them, Pierce Johnson (6.48), Graham Ashcraft (10.13) and Luis Mey (9.75) have ugly 30-day ERAs.
Atlanta's bullpen is in much better shape. Only Fuentes pitched last night, and closer Raisel Iglesias has had three full days off with a 0.90 ERA over the last 30 days. Sale's 2.18 ERA is well below his 3.06 xERA, so the market is paying a little for a fragile number. But Abbott's 5.02 xERA is worse than his 4.70 ERA, and even on expected stats these two starters are about two runs apart. The price is rich, not wrong.
The case against Atlanta is real. Ronald Acuña Jr. fouled a ball off his left shin last night and isn't in the lineup. Ozzie Albies is 5-for-39 and Austin Riley is 7-for-36 over the last 10 games, and the bottom of the order includes Sean Murphy at .173 and Ha-Seong Kim at .116. This same lineup put 9 runners on last night and scored nothing. Sale is also coming off 11 full days between starts in what's been framed as a tune-up. And Elly De La Cruz has a 1.031 OPS against lefties, which makes him the Reds' best path to runs. Those holes could keep this game close, and that's why I'm taking the moneyline instead of laying the run line. But the two things that decide this game both point to Atlanta: the gap between the starters and which bullpen has to cover the middle innings. I'm following them.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Elly De La Cruz: 1.195 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.195A 1.195 OPS over his last 46 at bats is up from an already high .881 season mark, a smaller jump than most in this group since he was already hitting well. He has 28 home runs this year, the most here, backing up the power. Forty six at bats is a real two week sample, enough to mean something without being the whole season. With the total bases line at 1.5 tonight against Atlanta, this hot stretch sits closer to his season form than most others do.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Andrew Abbott
SITSIT: Abbott has allowed a 9.15 ERA over his last five starts Why now: Abbott has given up 20 earned runs in 19.2 innings (9.15 ERA, 1.98 WHIP) across his last five outings, well below an already middling 4.70 season ERA. Atlanta's order (from 9/22, today not yet posted) is fronted by Acuna Jr. (.814 OPS), Baldwin (.817) and Olson (.828). Who it fits: Category and points rosters deciding whether to bench a rostered starter carrying real ratio risk tonight. The risk: The sample is just five starts, and one outing (9/11) was a 2-inning blowup that may be skewing the average more than his true form. Watch next: Whether Atlanta's confirmed lineup today keeps the same top-of-order bats. Evidence as of Sep 23, 11:00 AM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 23, 07:15 PM ET.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 23, 2026 at 11:21 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJUAN BRITOH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Juan Brito over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -168. He only needs one thing to happen: a hit, a run scored or a run driven in. At this price the book is saying that happens about 63 percent of the time. I think it's a little more likely than that.
The case starts with where he's batting. Brito leads off tonight against a lefty. A leadoff man gets the most trips to the plate of anyone in the lineup, and Brito averages 3.7 of them a game. Right behind him are Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting .394 with a 1.262 OPS in September and .340 with a 1.031 OPS against lefties, and Sal Stewart, who has 110 RBIs. If Brito gets on base at all, one of those two can bring him home. That's what makes this combined prop work for him. He's also swinging well. He's hit .325 with an .874 OPS in 40 September at-bats, went 9 for 29 over the last 15 days, and has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games. As a switch hitter he bats right-handed against lefties, and he's hit .378 with a .968 OPS against them this year.
That .378 comes from only 37 at-bats, so I'm treating it as a sign he's comfortable from that side, not as his real talent level. The main thing working against this bet is Chris Sale. He has a 2.18 ERA, and right-handed hitters are batting just .211 with a .566 OPS against him. Brito is 0 for 3 against him in his career, and he hasn't played either of the last two games. The Braves bullpen is also well rested behind Sale. There is one thing on Brito's side: Sale's outs line is set at 15.5, so the market expects him out after about five innings. That likely gives Brito at least one trip against a reliever. Getting four chances at one thing going right is worth the price.
- GARY'S PICKANDREW ABBOTTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
I'm taking Andrew Abbott over 1.5 walks at -137. He needs to walk two batters, and his season says that's his normal night. He has walked 75 batters in 159 innings, which is 2.4 per start. He has walked two or more in 6 of his last 8 starts, including five on 98 pitches against the Dodgers last time out. His September ERA is 7.59, and his whiff rate by start has swung between 5 percent and 31 percent. When a pitcher can't get swings and misses, he ends up working deep into counts, and deep counts turn into walks.
The top of the Braves order is patient. Drake Baldwin has drawn 55 walks and Matt Olson 63, and Abbott could see each of them three times. Brewer Hicklen, down in the eighth spot, has 7 walks in only 33 at-bats. That's a small sample, but it fits what he does. On my math, Abbott should face about 22 batters, and that leaves the chance of two or more walks a little above the 58 percent this price implies.
The real risk is how long he stays in the game. His outs line is only 14.5. In his last three starts he went 4.2, 2.0 and 4.0 innings, and in the 2.0 inning start he got hit so fast that he never walked anyone. The same thing could happen tonight. The Braves as a team also don't walk much. They average 2.88 walks a game, and tonight's nine walk just 7 times per 100 plate appearances. Ronald Acuña Jr. isn't in the lineup either. I'm betting that Abbott's own walk problem outweighs a lineup that doesn't walk much, and I'd rather take that side than pay extra for the opposite.
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