MLB · Mon, Oct 5 · 8:00 PM

Yankees at Rays

O/U 6.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Tropicana Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rays· -120

I'm betting on the starting pitcher. Cam Schlittler went 8-2 with a 1.16 ERA in 17 road starts this season and led the majors in road WHIP at 0.74. He comes into Game 2 having allowed 3 earned runs over his last 28.1 innings, with 39 strikeouts. Tampa's usual trick of stacking left-handed bats doesn't work well against him: lefties hit .560 OPS off him and righties .520, so there's little platoon edge to find. He also has a curveball that buried Boston in the Wild Card round, and the Rays posted a .262 wOBA against curveballs, fifth-lowest in baseball. Their offense is coming in cool, too. The 0.79 ERA over Freddy Peralta's last six starts hides some warning signs. Over his last three he walked 8 in 16.0 innings, and his strike rates were 57.0%, 60.8% and 63.4%. His strikeout rate over his last five starts is 7.4 per nine. Lefties have hit .757 OPS against him with 17 homers, and the Yankees will start eight of them. He throws his four-seamer 53% of the time, and it's his weakest major pitch at a .334 xwOBA. Ben Rice (.424) and Luis García Jr. (.410) post big xwOBA numbers against four-seamers, and Rice has hit 7 homers off Tampa pitching in 13 games. Peralta hasn't gone past 6.0 innings since August 21, so the Rays bullpen will likely need to cover the middle innings. That group includes Tyler Wells, who hasn't pitched in a game since September 12, Garrett Cleavinger, out since September 4, and Steven Matz, who has a 5.67 ERA. David Bednar is on four full days of rest, and the off-day tomorrow lets Boone use his whole bullpen. The best case against this pick is real. Peralta has a 1.69 ERA in his Trop starts. The Rays outfield may be the best in the Statcast era at turning fly balls into outs, the building will be loud, and Tampa already won a 1-0 game in this series. But that 1-0 game came from Drew Rasmussen, not Peralta. At -120, the market is pricing this close to a coin flip when the gap between the two starters is clear. I'm taking the moneyline instead of -1.5 because the Rays make contact, the total is 6.5, and Tampa has been good at keeping games close.

The 0.79 ERA over Freddy Peralta's last six starts hides some warning signs. Over his last three he walked 8 in 16.0 innings, and his strike rates were 57.0%, 60.8% and 63.4%. His strikeout rate over his last five starts is 7.4 per nine. Lefties have hit .757 OPS against him with 17 homers, and the Yankees will start eight of them. He throws his four-seamer 53% of the time, and it's his weakest major pitch at a .334 xwOBA. Ben Rice (.424) and Luis García Jr. (.410) post big xwOBA numbers against four-seamers, and Rice has hit 7 homers off Tampa pitching in 13 games. Peralta hasn't gone past 6.0 innings since August 21, so the Rays bullpen will likely need to cover the middle innings. That group includes Tyler Wells, who hasn't pitched in a game since September 12, Garrett Cleavinger, out since September 4, and Steven Matz, who has a 5.67 ERA. David Bednar is on four full days of rest, and the off-day tomorrow lets Boone use his whole bullpen.

The best case against this pick is real. Peralta has a 1.69 ERA in his Trop starts. The Rays outfield may be the best in the Statcast era at turning fly balls into outs, the building will be loud, and Tampa already won a 1-0 game in this series. But that 1-0 game came from Drew Rasmussen, not Peralta. At -120, the market is pricing this close to a coin flip when the gap between the two starters is clear. I'm taking the moneyline instead of -1.5 because the Rays make contact, the total is 6.5, and Tampa has been good at keeping games close.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML -120
Published odds: -120
Result: Lost
Final score: 2-5

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANDUEL · 7 moves

Market	Opened Oct 4 5:00 AM	Close Oct 5 7:30 PM	Move
SPREAD	Yankees -1.5 (+146)	Yankees -1.5 (+140)	Price
TOTAL	6.5 (-110)	6.5 (-108)	Price
MONEYLINE	Yankees -126	Yankees -124	+2

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENOct 4 5:00 AM	Yankees -1.5 (+146)	6.5 (-110)	Yankees -126 · Rays +108
Oct 5 5:00 AM	Yankees -1.5 (+142)	6.5 (-114)	Yankees -130 · Rays +110
Oct 5 6:00 AM	Yankees -1.5 (+146)	6.5 (-114)	Yankees -126 · Rays +108
Oct 5 3:56 PM	Yankees -1.5 (+146)	6.5 (-118)	Yankees -120 · Rays +102
Oct 5 4:25 PM	Yankees -1.5 (+146)	6.5 (-118)	Yankees -120 · Rays +102
Oct 5 4:30 PM	Yankees -1.5 (+150)	6.5 (-118)	Yankees -120 · Rays +102
Oct 5 4:45 PM	Yankees -1.5 (+146)	6.5 (-118)	Yankees -120 · Rays +102
CLOSEOct 5 7:30 PM	Yankees -1.5 (+140)	6.5 (-108)	Yankees -124 · Rays +108

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Freddy Peralta: 0.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.56
Peralta has allowed almost no runs in his last 3 starts, a 0.56 ERA over 16 innings with 14 strikeouts. Part of that is real: his WHIP in that span is 1.00 against 1.33 for the season, so fewer runners are reaching. The rest is stranding nearly everyone who does, which usually fades, and his season ERA is 4.42. Lean on the cleaner traffic numbers more than the ERA when pricing him against the Yankees.

PLATOON EDGE

Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
.883
Liam Hicks is close to a pure platoon bat: an .883 OPS in 375 at-bats against righties and .504 in 104 at-bats against lefties. The righty number sits on the bigger sample and is the reliable read. Cam Schlittler throws right-handed, so Hicks hits 4th on his good side. His value is front-loaded, since a lefty reliever late flips him to his weak side fast.
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
.837
Jonathan Aranda has an .837 OPS in 416 at-bats against righties and .678 in 164 against lefties. Both samples are decent, so the split looks real, and it is milder than a strict platoon bat's. Hitting 2nd against right-hander Cam Schlittler gives him his better side plus extra trips to the plate near the top of the order, which helps any prop that depends on volume.

HEAT CHECK

George Lombard Jr.: .885 OPS in Last 15 Days
.885
Lombard has an .885 OPS over the last 15 days, up from .699 for the season. At 46 AB the sample is a little sturdier than most hot streaks, still far short of a season, so expect some of it to fade while a modest bump holds. His total-bases line is 0.5, meaning one hit clears it, a low bar for a hitter seeing the ball well right now.
Ben Rice: 1.041 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.041
Rice was already one of the better hitters in the league at .897 with 41 home runs, and he has a 1.041 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 AB. Because his normal level is so high, the jump is smaller than most hot streaks and easier to believe. His total-bases line is 1.5, needing a double, a homer or two singles, a fair ask for him on either his recent or season form.
Jonny DeLuca: .857 OPS in Last 15 Days
.857
DeLuca's OPS over the last 15 days sits 0.129 above his .728 season mark. That covers 42 AB, enough to notice and short enough that a couple of good games carry it. The jump is modest, so he does not need much luck to stay near this level. His total-bases line at Tampa Bay is 0.5, one hit clears it, and his 11 home runs give him a one-swing path.

COOLING OFF

Luis Garcia Jr.: .276 OPS in Last 15 Days
.276
Garcia has been close to invisible at the plate over the last 15 days, a .276 OPS against .831 for the season. That slump covers only 35 AB, where a few hard-hit outs can wreck the line. The season number is the better guide and this should climb back. If his props are priced off the cold stretch in NYY @ TB, they may be set lower than his season form supports.
Yandy Diaz: .450 OPS in Last 15 Days
.450
Diaz has gone quiet over the last 15 days with a .450 OPS in 40 AB, well under his .805 season mark. Forty at-bats is a short stretch for a hitter whose full season says he is a solid on-base bat, so expect him to drift back toward .805. If his props in NYY @ TB are priced off the cold two weeks, they may be set too low.
Junior Caminero: .749 OPS in L15, draws RHP Cam Schlittler
.749
Junior Caminero's dip is mild: a .749 OPS in 46 at-bats over the last 15 days against an .885 season mark. That is still a productive hitter running a little cool, and he should drift back toward his norm. Right-hander Cam Schlittler is technically his weaker side, but his .871 across 459 AB against righties barely trails his overall line, so handedness changes little here.

FIRST INNING

NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10
NYY scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Freddy Peralta: 3.27 ERA, .226 opponent AVG across 22.0 IP, 3 HR; Cam Schlittler: 2.45 ERA, .175 opponent AVG across 33.0 IP, 6 HR.

RUNNING GAME

Green light: New York Yankees run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 16%
16% CS
Liam Hicks has thrown out 11 of 69 base stealers, so roughly five of every six runners make it. The Yankees run about 1.3 times a game, and 69 tries is a season-long sample, so this is who Hicks is behind the plate. Yankee singles tonight can turn into runners on second, which helps New York score in innings where they get only a hit or two.

BALLPARK

Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 1.69 at Tropicana Field (4 games there)
1.69
Peralta has a 1.69 ERA at Tropicana Field with hitters at .116, but that is only 4 games and 21.1 innings. Everywhere else he sits at 4.81 over 147.2 innings, a much bigger sample and a better guide. A few good nights in one park can make a split like this, so expect it to climb, and give his overall form more weight against the Yankees.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Rays are 7-6 vs Yankees this season
7-6
Tampa Bay holds a 7-6 edge over New York, close to a dead heat across 13 meetings. Nothing on the sheet ties it to particular pitchers or how the games were won. The Yankees took the last one 6-4, and tonight is in Tampa. A near-even series between division rivals says very little, so the pitching matchup and lineups should drive how you see this game.

TEAM RECORD

Yankees 7-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 8 starts
7-1
New York has won almost every time Schlittler takes the ball lately, with one loss in his last 8 turns. A team record includes the lineup and bullpen as much as the starter, and the sheet gives no detail on how he pitched in those games. Use it as a sign the Yankees play well behind him, then check how much of that the price in Tampa already reflects.
Rays 6-2 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts
6-2
Tampa Bay has won Peralta's last 6 starts in a row after dropping two of the earlier ones in this 8-start run. The team record reflects the offense and bullpen as much as Peralta, and eight starts is a short window. Hosting the Yankees, it says the Rays have been backing him well lately, which a bettor should weigh against what the price already assumes.

REGRESSION

Chandler Simpson: .306 AVG vs .261 xBA
.261
Simpson is getting more hits than his contact earns: by the quality of what he puts in play, he should be around .261 with a .263 xwOBA, and he is sitting at .306 and .305. Over 612 plate appearances that gap is a full season of evidence, and for a slap hitter who leans on speed, beating xBA on weak grounders is part of how he plays. Expect some pullback toward the expected marks without a full collapse. Against the Yankees, his chances come from balls in play and legs, so a defense that converts grounders cleanly cuts directly into his value in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
25-14
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 73-50 in their other 123 completed games.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, caesars, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CAM SCHLITTLERPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5
MLBNew York Yankees· -135
LOST · ACTUAL 2
I'm taking Cam Schlittler under 1.5 earned runs at -135. This is the same pitcher behind my Yankees moneyline, and the earned run line is the cleanest way to bet on him directly. He finished the season with a 1.95 ERA over 193.2 innings, averaged about one earned run per start across 34 outings, and was even better on the road with a 1.16 ERA in 17 starts away from the Bronx. He has been at his sharpest lately. Over his last nine regular season starts he allowed seven earned runs in 54 innings, and in his Wild Card start against Boston on September 29 he threw 6.1 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. He holds lefties to a .560 OPS and righties to a .520 OPS, so a Rays lineup with five left-handed bats has no platoon angle to work. That lineup is also running cold. Yandy Díaz has a .450 OPS over the last 15 days, Jonathan Aranda .672, and the Rays managed one run in Game 1. Tropicana Field is a dome that plays pitcher-friendly, so there is no weather or wind to carry a mistake. One small edge for the under: the Yankees have made five errors over their last seven games, and any run that comes off a misplay doesn't count against him. The best argument against this is the building and the opponent. Schlittler has a 2.77 ERA at the Trop over two starts, higher than his mark everywhere else, and Tampa scored three earned runs off him there on April 12. Junior Caminero has homered off him, and on September 24 the Rays put up runs with singles instead of homers. That's how this lineup scores: Chandler Simpson stole 46 bases, runners are 6-for-8 stealing against Schlittler this year, and this contact-heavy group strikes out less than most. One walk, a steal and a single can produce a run quickly. Still, two earned runs is a lot to ask of this offense against the best pitcher in the league, and -135 is a fair price for the under.
Cam Schlittler
Pitcher Earned Runs under 1.5
-135 · LOST · ACTUAL 2
New York Yankees
I'm taking Cam Schlittler under 1.5 earned runs at -135. This is the same pitcher behind my Yankees moneyline, and the earned run line is the cleanest way to bet on him directly. He finished the season with a 1.95 ERA over 193.2 innings, averaged about one earned run per start across 34 outings, and was even better on the road with a 1.16 ERA in 17 starts away from the Bronx. He has been at his sharpest lately. Over his last nine regular season starts he allowed seven earned runs in 54 innings, and in his Wild Card start against Boston on September 29 he threw 6.1 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. He holds lefties to a .560 OPS and righties to a .520 OPS, so a Rays lineup with five left-handed bats has no platoon angle to work. That lineup is also running cold. Yandy Díaz has a .450 OPS over the last 15 days, Jonathan Aranda .672, and the Rays managed one run in Game 1. Tropicana Field is a dome that plays pitcher-friendly, so there is no weather or wind to carry a mistake. One small edge for the under: the Yankees have made five errors over their last seven games, and any run that comes off a misplay doesn't count against him.
The best argument against this is the building and the opponent. Schlittler has a 2.77 ERA at the Trop over two starts, higher than his mark everywhere else, and Tampa scored three earned runs off him there on April 12. Junior Caminero has homered off him, and on September 24 the Rays put up runs with singles instead of homers. That's how this lineup scores: Chandler Simpson stole 46 bases, runners are 6-for-8 stealing against Schlittler this year, and this contact-heavy group strikes out less than most. One walk, a steal and a single can produce a run quickly. Still, two earned runs is a lot to ask of this offense against the best pitcher in the league, and -135 is a fair price for the under.
GARY'S PICK
LIAM HICKSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
MLBTampa Bay Rays· -171
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
I'm taking Liam Hicks over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -171. Of the Rays hitters on this board, Hicks is the one whose profile fits this matchup. Against a strikeout pitcher, the most important thing a hitter can do is put the ball in play, and Hicks did that all season. He struck out only 55 times in 479 at-bats, the lowest strikeout total among Tampa's regulars. He's also a strong hitter against right-handers, with a .883 OPS and 17 of his 18 home runs coming off righties, and he hit .284 with a .367 OBP overall. He's been hitting the ball hard lately too. He doubled off Gerrit Cole in Game 1 and also drew a walk, and he had back-to-back multi-hit games in Philadelphia before that. The cleanup spot also helps him. Díaz, Aranda and Caminero hit ahead of him, Caminero walked 79 times, and so Hicks gets a second way to cash this through an RBI or a run if one of them reaches. The case against this is real and comes down to the man on the mound plus the late innings. Schlittler has held left-handed hitters to a .560 OPS, and Hicks has struck out in most of his few career trips against him, a sample too small to rely on in either direction. His expected stats this season trail his actual line, which suggests some of his production came from good fortune. The biggest late-game risk is his split against left-handers, a .504 OPS. If Boone goes to Brent Headrick or Ryan Weathers for Hicks's final at-bat, his last chance comes in his worst matchup. The price is steep for a hitter facing this pitcher, but a contact hitter batting cleanup with on-base guys in front of him gets four trips to the plate and several ways to cash, so I'll pay it.
Liam Hicks
H+R+RBI over 0.5
-171 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Tampa Bay Rays
I'm taking Liam Hicks over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -171. Of the Rays hitters on this board, Hicks is the one whose profile fits this matchup. Against a strikeout pitcher, the most important thing a hitter can do is put the ball in play, and Hicks did that all season. He struck out only 55 times in 479 at-bats, the lowest strikeout total among Tampa's regulars. He's also a strong hitter against right-handers, with a .883 OPS and 17 of his 18 home runs coming off righties, and he hit .284 with a .367 OBP overall. He's been hitting the ball hard lately too. He doubled off Gerrit Cole in Game 1 and also drew a walk, and he had back-to-back multi-hit games in Philadelphia before that. The cleanup spot also helps him. Díaz, Aranda and Caminero hit ahead of him, Caminero walked 79 times, and so Hicks gets a second way to cash this through an RBI or a run if one of them reaches.
The case against this is real and comes down to the man on the mound plus the late innings. Schlittler has held left-handed hitters to a .560 OPS, and Hicks has struck out in most of his few career trips against him, a sample too small to rely on in either direction. His expected stats this season trail his actual line, which suggests some of his production came from good fortune. The biggest late-game risk is his split against left-handers, a .504 OPS. If Boone goes to Brent Headrick or Ryan Weathers for Hicks's final at-bat, his last chance comes in his worst matchup. The price is steep for a hitter facing this pitcher, but a contact hitter batting cleanup with on-base guys in front of him gets four trips to the plate and several ways to cash, so I'll pay it.

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