Rockies at Yankees
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -2.5 · Yankee Stadium
The line
BETRIVERS · 27 moves| Market | Opened Tue 5:00 AM | Close Tue 9:40 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (-141) | Yankees -3.5 (-435) | +2 |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -345 | Yankees -10000 | −9655 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENTue 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (-141) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +275 |
| Tue 7:15 AM | Yankees -1.5 (-141) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +280 |
| Tue 9:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (-141) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +275 |
| Tue 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (-139) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +280 |
| Tue 3:01 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-141) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +285 |
| Tue 3:31 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-143) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +280 |
| Tue 3:31 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-143) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +280 |
| Tue 4:11 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-141) | — | Yankees -335 · Rockies +275 |
| Tue 4:23 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-143) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +290 |
| Tue 4:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-143) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +280 |
| Tue 4:54 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-150) | — | Yankees -375 · Rockies +300 |
| Tue 5:01 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-148) | — | Yankees -360 · Rockies +300 |
| Tue 6:40 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-152) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +295 |
| Tue 6:40 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-152) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +295 |
| Tue 7:04 PM | Yankees -2 (-118) | — | Yankees -345 · Rockies +295 |
| Tue 7:30 PM | Yankees -3 (-108) | — | Yankees -835 · Rockies +450 |
| Tue 8:40 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-120) | — | Yankees -835 · Rockies +430 |
| Tue 8:40 PM | Yankees -1.5 (-132) | — | Yankees -1000 · Rockies +510 |
| Tue 8:45 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+118) | — | Yankees -715 · Rockies +400 |
| Tue 9:10 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+148) | — | Yankees -1115 · Rockies +525 |
| Tue 9:10 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+148) | — | Yankees -1115 · Rockies +525 |
| Tue 9:10 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+215) | — | Yankees -1250 · Rockies +575 |
| Tue 9:15 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+210) | — | Yankees -2000 · Rockies +750 |
| Tue 9:25 PM | Yankees -4.5 (+140) | — | Yankees -10000 · Rockies +1050 |
| Tue 9:25 PM | Yankees -4.5 (+140) | — | Yankees -10000 · Rockies +1050 |
| Tue 9:30 PM | Yankees -4.5 (+215) | — | Yankees -10000 · Rockies +1050 |
| Tue 9:30 PM | Yankees -4.5 (-134) | — | Yankees -10000 · Rockies +1050 |
| CLOSETue 9:40 PM | Yankees -3.5 (-435) | — | Yankees -10000 · Rockies +1050 |
The read
I expect New York to win and cover, but I decline to endorse the wager at -162. The pitching advantage supports the game call; uncertainty over the Yankees’ scoring keeps me from paying that price.
Schlittler has a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts, and his season results show effectiveness against both batting sides. Hughes’s improved latest outing still ended before he completed five innings. His nine strikeouts against eight walks over his last three starts leave New York opportunities to build innings. Rice and García bring respective .929 and .902 OPS figures against right-handers, with Judge returning between Bellinger and García. I expect that group to generate scoring opportunities against Hughes and the relievers following him.
The finish also favors New York. Headrick carries a 1.89 season ERA and Bednar a 2.64 ERA, with neither used in the latest game. Both clubs had Monday off, so Colorado’s bullpen should not be dismissed as exhausted. Its latest series nevertheless exposed several vulnerable arms, while Bernardino remains a credible option for stopping New York’s left-handed hitters.
That is where the cover can fail. Hughes has allowed a .699 OPS to lefties compared with .831 to righties, and New York starts seven left-handed hitters. The Yankees’ weaker lower order could strand opportunities before Bernardino helps Colorado through the middle innings. Rumfield and McCarthy provide enough offensive threat to keep the game close, and the short right-field porch benefits Colorado’s left-handed bats too.
My central assumption is that New York converts its opportunities into enough separation. Strong pitching alone does not establish a cover. I’m also assuming Headrick and Bednar are available based on their recent work and Monday’s rest; a confirmed restriction would weaken the expected finish. Those limitations leave the Yankees as my game call while keeping this exact wager unendorsed at its price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
.859Mickey Moniak carries an .859 OPS in 279 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .558 in 80 AB vs. left-handers. He bats fifth tonight against RHP Cam Schlittler.
HEAT CHECK
TJ Rumfield: 1.194 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.194The last 15 days sample runs 45 AB: a 1.194 OPS versus .850 for the season, 0.344 above his norm. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
COOLING OFF
Mickey Moniak: .434 OPS in Last 15 Days
.434The last 15 days sample runs 48 AB: a .434 OPS versus .792 for the season, 0.358 below his norm.
BULLPEN
Colorado Rockies pen: 12.2 relief IP over their last 3 games
12.2 IPMark Manfredi worked 2 games (42 pitches); Jordan Romano worked 2 games (34 pitches; 4.88 season ERA over 27.2 IP). The pen allowed 11 ER in that 12.2-IP span (Sep 4–Sep 6). No team game on Sep 7.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of COL @ NYY
NRFINeither side has been scoring early — a 1st-inning run in only 3 of 10 for NYY and 3 of 10 for COL games lately. Tonight's 1st-inning number: Over 0.5 -115 / Under 0.5 -115. Starters' first innings this season — Cam Schlittler 2.79 ERA, .196 BA against in first innings (29.0 IP, 6 HR); Gabriel Hughes 9.90 ERA, .326 BA against in first innings (10.0 IP, 1 HR).
BALLPARK
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.41 ERA
3.41Cam Schlittler has a 3.41 ERA over 68.2 innings and 13 games at Yankee Stadium, where hitters bat .245 against him. His ERA is 1.14 across a 103.0-inning baseline elsewhere, so the supplied split does not show the park driving his stronger results entering COL @ NYY.
TEAM RECORD
Rockies 2-6 in Gabriel Hughes's last 8 starts
2-6Rockies are 2-6 in Gabriel Hughes's last 8 starts this season.
REGRESSION
TJ Rumfield: .299 AVG vs .260 xBA
.260TJ Rumfield's .299 average comes against a .260 expected (xBA) on 565 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .334 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Mickey Moniak: .251 AVG vs .218 xBA
.218Mickey Moniak's .251 average comes against a .218 expected (xBA) on 389 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .336 against a .285 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 8, 2026 at 3:22 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKTJ RUMFIELDH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Rumfield has cleared this in 12 of his last 15 games while batting .310 with an .881 OPS against right-handers. Schlittler is a difficult matchup, but Rumfield only needs one hit, run or RBI from the third spot, and his current form gives him multiple paths to cash.
- THE LONG SHOTLUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5
Garcia has hit 25 of his 28 home runs against right-handers and brings a .902 OPS in that split into a cleanup assignment at Yankee Stadium. Hughes relies heavily on a 92.4 mph four-seamer, has a 9.00 road ERA and is followed by a vulnerable Colorado bullpen. The short right-field porch gives Garcia the best combination of matchup, park and price on this home-run board.
- GARY'S PICKMICKEY MONIAKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Moniak owns an .859 OPS against right-handed pitching and bats fifth behind three hitters who reach base at useful rates. Schlittler can overpower him, so this is not a comfortable matchup, but one single or one productive plate appearance can settle a modest line at a playable price.
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