Sports picks for Tuesday, September 8, 2026

198 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -132

Detroit’s opportunity comes before Minnesota reaches its late-inning relievers. Kremer has a 7.42 ERA over his last three starts and has allowed an .852 OPS to left-handed hitters this season. Detroit’s listed order has six left-handed bats, with Greene and McGonigle showing productive results against the four-seamers and sinkers that have troubled Kremer. Greene also homered twice September 5 and again in yesterday’s three-hit game. Anderson gives Detroit a reasonable chance to carry an advantage through the middle innings. His last three starts produced a 2.35 ERA, and he allowed one earned run over 5⅔ innings against Minnesota in their previous meeting. His changeup offers a specific challenge for Larnach. But Anderson has not completed six innings in any listed start, and his eight walks across the last three outings leave an early exit firmly in play. The finish is my reservation. Gómez, Hoffman and Minter last pitched September 5, while Jansen, Sommers and Kinley worked both previous days. Holton sat yesterday after throwing eight pitches Sunday, giving Detroit a credible alternative. Whether Jansen can work again remains unresolved; a confirmed restriction on him or Holton would weaken the finish I expect. Minnesota’s rested relievers also make recovering a lost lead more difficult. My expectation is that Detroit scores early and gets enough innings from Anderson to protect that advantage. Effective relief coverage remains the central assumption. I still expect a Tigers win, but I decline to endorse the wager at -132: the starting matchup supports the game call, while the uncertain finish leaves insufficient confidence to lay this price.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· -118

I expect Baltimore to build a lead while Brandon Young pitches and protect it through a difficult finish. That remains my ordinary game call, but I decline to endorse the wager at -118. The advantage is too narrow. Young has a 2.79 ERA over his last three starts, compared with Tanner Bibee’s 4.50. His .676 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters also fits Cleveland’s projected lineup. That supports an early Baltimore advantage, although Young has surrendered homers in each of his last three starts. Kwan, Bazzana and Lowe give Cleveland credible opportunities against a right-hander. Baltimore’s offensive opportunity comes from Alonso, Alexander and Basallo, whose season OPS figures against righties are .888, .845 and .795. The concern is whether those strengths produce runs tonight: Baltimore’s listed nine hit .189 over the last seven days. Yesterday’s bases-loaded walks and Mayo’s two homers do not establish a broad recovery. Bibee’s latest command failure creates an opening, but his four preceding starts each lasted at least six innings. Cleveland’s middle and finish make this a difficult wager to endorse. Herrin last pitched September 3, and Yoho threw 12 pitches yesterday, providing options before the principal finishers. Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski all had yesterday off. Baltimore has plausible answers—Garcia threw six pitches yesterday, Walker seven, and Cano last pitched September 3—but their availability and deployment remain assumptions. My central assumption is that Young supplies enough effective innings for Baltimore’s offense to establish that lead. If Cleveland gets ahead and reaches its rested finishers, I would expect the Orioles ticket to lose. Cleveland’s confirmed starting lineup could change the matchup assessment; the listed order remains projected. That uncertainty, Baltimore’s cold bats and Cleveland’s stronger finish leave insufficient conviction to pay -118.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -144

Boston is my expected winner, but I decline to endorse the wager at this price. My case depends on Sandoval keeping the game close enough for Boston’s lineup and bullpen to decide the finish. Detmers is the strongest argument against that call. He has allowed three earned runs across his latest 33 innings and completed at least six innings in each of those five starts. Sandoval walked nine in his latest 15 innings. I expect Boston to need relief earlier, and keeping those walks from becoming runs is an assumption, not something its bullpen can guarantee afterward. The Angels’ supporting offense gives Boston a chance to manage that problem. Siri is 0-for-26 over the last 15 days, and Ballesteros has a .483 season OPS against lefties. Boston has several potential contributors: Abreu and Jones carry .907 and .810 OPS figures against lefties, while White is 7-for-19 over the last seven days. Those are reasons to expect Boston to generate enough offense, although Detmers’ .615 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters makes him a difficult opponent for this order. Chapman and Miller last pitched September 6 and have season ERAs of 2.03 and 2.15. That supports Boston’s finish if Sandoval keeps it competitive. But the Angels threw four scoreless relief innings yesterday and have rested alternatives in Natera and Fermin. Boston still has to earn its late scoring. The failure path is clear: Neto and Trout capitalize on Sandoval’s traffic, Detmers carries the lead deep, and the Angels’ rested relievers protect it. Joyce’s availability remains unresolved; confirmation that he can pitch would strengthen that finish further. I retain Boston as the game call, but those dependencies leave insufficient conviction to endorse -144.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mets· -124

Miami’s best opportunity comes against Sean Manaea. He has allowed right-handed hitters a .867 OPS in 338 at-bats, and Miami starts eight right-handed bats. Heriberto Hernandez, Otto Lopez and Javier Sanoja have respective OPS figures of .879, .829 and .849 against lefties. Manaea has also allowed 15 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings. I expect that group to create an early advantage, although Miami’s weaker lower order and Agustin Ramirez’s recent struggles could interrupt those rallies. Sandy Alcantara gives Miami a credible way to carry that advantage through the middle innings. He has completed six or seven innings in each of his last six starts, with a season barrel rate allowed of 5.1% compared with Manaea’s 10.9%. That combination of contact suppression and innings is worth paying this modest favorite price. The assumption is that Alcantara contains tonight’s Mets better than his latest opponents: he allowed four earned runs in each of his last two outings. Length alone will not help if New York scores throughout those innings. The bullpen finish looks workable if Alcantara delivers. Bradley Blalock threw 48 pitches yesterday, and Josh Ekness and Cade Gibson worked consecutive days. Michael Petersen is listed as available, Calvin Faucher last pitched September 5, and Victor Vodnik last pitched September 6. I expect Miami to protect a lead through those less recently used options. Griffin Conine and Kyle Stowers also provide left-handed bench options later. Petersen’s ability to handle a normal assignment remains an assumption; a confirmed restriction would weaken my assessment of the finish. New York’s strongest counter is to make that shorter bullpen assignment disappear. Juan Soto has a 1.010 OPS against righties, while Bo Bichette and A.J. Ewing have contributed to the recent wins. The Mets also have more relief flexibility after nobody worked both of the last two days. If their bats force Alcantara out early while Miami’s weaker lineup slots let Manaea settle in, I would expect the game to turn toward New York. That is the principal risk behind this endorsement.

Sandy Alcantara gives Miami a credible way to carry that advantage through the middle innings. He has completed six or seven innings in each of his last six starts, with a season barrel rate allowed of 5.1% compared with Manaea’s 10.9%. That combination of contact suppression and innings is worth paying this modest favorite price. The assumption is that Alcantara contains tonight’s Mets better than his latest opponents: he allowed four earned runs in each of his last two outings. Length alone will not help if New York scores throughout those innings.

The bullpen finish looks workable if Alcantara delivers. Bradley Blalock threw 48 pitches yesterday, and Josh Ekness and Cade Gibson worked consecutive days. Michael Petersen is listed as available, Calvin Faucher last pitched September 5, and Victor Vodnik last pitched September 6. I expect Miami to protect a lead through those less recently used options. Griffin Conine and Kyle Stowers also provide left-handed bench options later. Petersen’s ability to handle a normal assignment remains an assumption; a confirmed restriction would weaken my assessment of the finish.

New York’s strongest counter is to make that shorter bullpen assignment disappear. Juan Soto has a 1.010 OPS against righties, while Bo Bichette and A.J. Ewing have contributed to the recent wins. The Mets also have more relief flexibility after nobody worked both of the last two days. If their bats force Alcantara out early while Miami’s weaker lineup slots let Manaea settle in, I would expect the game to turn toward New York. That is the principal risk behind this endorsement.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -142

Philadelphia remains my expected winner, but I decline to endorse the wager at -142. The case supports a modest lean, with too much uncertainty to justify this price. Both starters most recently delivered seven scoreless innings, so I expect a competitive opening. Painter’s 20 strikeouts against three walks over his last three starts give me a concrete reason to trust him through the middle innings. Houston’s projected lineup contains six right-handed hitters, matching his stronger season split. Sustaining that recent command is the central assumption behind my call. Philadelphia’s offensive case rests on its principal hitters producing against Wesneski himself. Schwarber homered in each of the last three games, Harper has a 1.027 OPS against right-handers, and Arraez has hit .319 against them. But Harper went 2-for-14 against Atlanta, and Wesneski has allowed only one earned run in his last 17 innings. Those are substantial obstacles for an offense that has struggled to generate sustained scoring. Both bullpens had yesterday off. Bowlan, Raley and Duran give Philadelphia a credible route to protecting a lead, although the Atlanta series exposed problems getting to the ninth. Houston can finish through Blubaugh, Abreu and Hader without using its weaker setup alternatives. Hader’s 0.69 ERA makes establishing a lead before the closing inning particularly important. I expect Painter to keep Philadelphia in position for its hitters to establish that lead. If his command breaks down early, Houston’s available finish makes a comeback difficult. The official batting orders remain unconfirmed; a meaningful change among Philadelphia’s principal hitters or Houston’s handedness mix could alter that assessment. I retain the Phillies game call, but those uncertainties keep me from backing it at this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -162

I expect New York to win and cover, but I decline to endorse the wager at -162. The pitching advantage supports the game call; uncertainty over the Yankees’ scoring keeps me from paying that price. Schlittler has a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts, and his season results show effectiveness against both batting sides. Hughes’s improved latest outing still ended before he completed five innings. His nine strikeouts against eight walks over his last three starts leave New York opportunities to build innings. Rice and García bring respective .929 and .902 OPS figures against right-handers, with Judge returning between Bellinger and García. I expect that group to generate scoring opportunities against Hughes and the relievers following him. The finish also favors New York. Headrick carries a 1.89 season ERA and Bednar a 2.64 ERA, with neither used in the latest game. Both clubs had Monday off, so Colorado’s bullpen should not be dismissed as exhausted. Its latest series nevertheless exposed several vulnerable arms, while Bernardino remains a credible option for stopping New York’s left-handed hitters. That is where the cover can fail. Hughes has allowed a .699 OPS to lefties compared with .831 to righties, and New York starts seven left-handed hitters. The Yankees’ weaker lower order could strand opportunities before Bernardino helps Colorado through the middle innings. Rumfield and McCarthy provide enough offensive threat to keep the game close, and the short right-field porch benefits Colorado’s left-handed bats too. My central assumption is that New York converts its opportunities into enough separation. Strong pitching alone does not establish a cover. I’m also assuming Headrick and Bednar are available based on their recent work and Monday’s rest; a confirmed restriction would weaken the expected finish. Those limitations leave the Yankees as my game call while keeping this exact wager unendorsed at its price.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· -146

Chicago is my game call, but I decline to endorse the wager at -146. I expect the White Sox to generate enough offense against Chandler and finish ahead, with Burke’s control the biggest threat to that expectation. Peters is 19-for-47 and Vargas 17-for-53 over the last 15 days, while Antonacci brings a .367 season on-base percentage. They give Chicago identifiable ways to create opportunities against Chandler, whose four-seamer accounts for 48.9% of his pitches. All three have favorable supplied season results against that pitch. Chandler has also allowed a .761 OPS to left-handed hitters, which matters against Chicago’s projected order. Those matchups support the offense, although the projected nine batting .212 over the last seven days keeps my expectations measured. Burke’s 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP support Chicago’s starting-pitching case against an offense that scored one run in each of its latest three games. But he walked eight and four in his latest two starts. Lowe and Reynolds are each 8-for-22 over the last seven days, so Pittsburgh has hitters capable of making those free passes costly. I’m assuming Burke controls the walks well enough to avoid an early deficit; his extra rest leaves that question open. Both bullpens had Monday off. Newcomb’s 2.42 ERA and Taylor’s 2.16 give Chicago credible finishing options, but Taylor allowed a homer in each of his latest two appearances. Pittsburgh can answer with Soto and Mason Montgomery, who has four scoreless innings over his last seven days. If Chicago falls behind, its uneven offense would have to recover against a functioning late-inning group. The official batting orders and any announced restrictions on Newcomb, Taylor or Smith could change the offensive or relief matchups this call depends on. I expect Chicago to win, but the unresolved personnel questions and the consequences of another walk-filled Burke outing leave too little conviction to endorse this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· -102

I expect Tampa Bay to get ahead against AJ Smith-Shawver, receive the longer start from Freddy Peralta and leave Kelly and Wells a manageable finish. Peralta has 17 strikeouts and one walk in his last 19 innings. Smith-Shawver has nine walks in his last 13⅓ innings and has not completed more than five innings in any of his four starts. That gives Tampa Bay opportunities to score and a reasonable expectation of needing fewer relief innings. The Rays have hitters positioned to use those opportunities. Yandy Díaz is 10-for-30 over the last seven days, while Jonathan Aranda is 7-for-23 with two homers. Liam Hicks has a .890 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. I expect that group to produce against Smith-Shawver before Atlanta can bring in left-handers Dylan Lee and Dylan Dodd. Aranda and Hicks have weaker season splits against lefties, so scoring early matters. The bullpen comparison keeps this competitive. Atlanta allowed three earned runs in 12⅓ relief innings in Philadelphia; Tampa Bay allowed 10 in 13⅔ innings in Texas. But the Rays had Monday off. Kevin Kelly’s three appearances from September 4–6 totaled 34 pitches, and Tyler Wells last worked September 5, delivering two scoreless innings. Wells’ demonstrated ability to cover multiple innings gives Tampa Bay some flexibility if Peralta’s start ends a little earlier than expected. Rest improves the available options; it does not erase the recent mistakes. My main assumption is that Peralta’s recent command carries into this Atlanta lineup. Michael Harris II and Drake Baldwin each have a .500 slugging percentage against four-seamers in their supplied season samples, and Ronald Acuña Jr. brings strong recent production. If they force Peralta out early while Smith-Shawver’s splitter keeps Tampa Bay contained, Atlanta can reach its available late relievers ahead. That is the strongest path against this bet. The batting orders remain provisional. My finishing expectation rests on Kelly and Wells, with Tampa Bay’s closer availability still unconfirmed. A confirmed change to the Rays’ expected top four or a pregame restriction on Wells could change the judgment. With those assumptions stated, the early offensive matchup, starter command and available finishing options support the endorsed ticket.

The Rays have hitters positioned to use those opportunities. Yandy Díaz is 10-for-30 over the last seven days, while Jonathan Aranda is 7-for-23 with two homers. Liam Hicks has a .890 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. I expect that group to produce against Smith-Shawver before Atlanta can bring in left-handers Dylan Lee and Dylan Dodd. Aranda and Hicks have weaker season splits against lefties, so scoring early matters.

The bullpen comparison keeps this competitive. Atlanta allowed three earned runs in 12⅓ relief innings in Philadelphia; Tampa Bay allowed 10 in 13⅔ innings in Texas. But the Rays had Monday off. Kevin Kelly’s three appearances from September 4–6 totaled 34 pitches, and Tyler Wells last worked September 5, delivering two scoreless innings. Wells’ demonstrated ability to cover multiple innings gives Tampa Bay some flexibility if Peralta’s start ends a little earlier than expected. Rest improves the available options; it does not erase the recent mistakes.

My main assumption is that Peralta’s recent command carries into this Atlanta lineup. Michael Harris II and Drake Baldwin each have a .500 slugging percentage against four-seamers in their supplied season samples, and Ronald Acuña Jr. brings strong recent production. If they force Peralta out early while Smith-Shawver’s splitter keeps Tampa Bay contained, Atlanta can reach its available late relievers ahead. That is the strongest path against this bet.

The batting orders remain provisional. My finishing expectation rests on Kelly and Wells, with Tampa Bay’s closer availability still unconfirmed. A confirmed change to the Rays’ expected top four or a pregame restriction on Wells could change the judgment. With those assumptions stated, the early offensive matchup, starter command and available finishing options support the endorsed ticket.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· +102

I expect Michael Wacha to give Kansas City enough innings and run prevention to hand its bullpen a lead. His last three starts produced four earned runs in 21 innings, with 23 strikeouts and three walks. Corbin Burnes returns with an expectation of approximately 60 pitches and three to five innings, depending on efficiency. That creates an opportunity for Kansas City through the middle innings, but the bet requires its hitters to turn that opportunity into runs. Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen and Vinnie Pasquantino carry the offensive case. Their season OPS figures against right-handed pitching are .817, .793 and .782, respectively. I expect that group to establish the lead while Wacha works. Jac Caglianone’s fresh elbow absence puts more responsibility on those hitters. Whether they produce against Burnes immediately upon his return is the central uncertain assumption. Arizona’s bullpen makes this a modest endorsement. Juan Morillo, Jonathan Loáisiga and Kevin Ginkel all had yesterday off, giving Arizona credible options to finish. Brandyn Garcia has worked three consecutive days, and Taylor Clarke threw 28 pitches yesterday, making the earlier relief coverage more consequential. If Burnes delivers an effective start and reaches those rested relievers with the game level, Arizona has a strong path to winning. Wacha also has a specific danger to navigate: right-handed hitters have an .813 OPS against him, and Gabriel Moreno owns an .867 OPS against right-handed pitching. My expected finish assumes Kansas City can get help from at least one of Nate Pearson or Steven Cruz. Pearson needed 20 pitches for two innings yesterday; Cruz threw 17 pitches. Their availability remains unconfirmed. I expect the Royals to build and protect the lead, but confirmation that both pitchers cannot contribute would materially weaken that judgment. The stronger case for Kansas City is getting ahead through Wacha and its upper order; a tied game handed entirely to the bullpens favors Arizona.

Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen and Vinnie Pasquantino carry the offensive case. Their season OPS figures against right-handed pitching are .817, .793 and .782, respectively. I expect that group to establish the lead while Wacha works. Jac Caglianone’s fresh elbow absence puts more responsibility on those hitters. Whether they produce against Burnes immediately upon his return is the central uncertain assumption.

Arizona’s bullpen makes this a modest endorsement. Juan Morillo, Jonathan Loáisiga and Kevin Ginkel all had yesterday off, giving Arizona credible options to finish. Brandyn Garcia has worked three consecutive days, and Taylor Clarke threw 28 pitches yesterday, making the earlier relief coverage more consequential. If Burnes delivers an effective start and reaches those rested relievers with the game level, Arizona has a strong path to winning. Wacha also has a specific danger to navigate: right-handed hitters have an .813 OPS against him, and Gabriel Moreno owns an .867 OPS against right-handed pitching.

My expected finish assumes Kansas City can get help from at least one of Nate Pearson or Steven Cruz. Pearson needed 20 pitches for two innings yesterday; Cruz threw 17 pitches. Their availability remains unconfirmed. I expect the Royals to build and protect the lead, but confirmation that both pitchers cannot contribute would materially weaken that judgment. The stronger case for Kansas City is getting ahead through Wacha and its upper order; a tied game handed entirely to the bullpens favors Arizona.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· +100

Milwaukee’s right-handed core gets the matchup that carries this decision. Peterson has allowed right-handed hitters a .297 average and .810 OPS across 353 at-bats. Chourio has an .892 OPS against lefties, and Vaughn has a .972 OPS. Those two, Contreras and Lara supplied all seven hits against Peterson in their last meeting. That encounter supports the broader matchup evidence, and I expect Milwaukee to create repeated scoring opportunities against him. Misiorowski’s job is to make that offensive advantage hold up through the middle innings. He completed six innings in each of his four starts before Chicago’s latest meeting with him. His season opponent OPS is .396 against left-handed hitters and .577 against right-handers. But the Cubs just reached him for five earned runs and four walks. I’m expecting his command to improve enough to provide effective length; a corrected delivery remains an assumption. I expect Milwaukee to add some scoring after Peterson leaves, with Bauers’ .890 season OPS providing a productive bench option. Chicago has credible answers, though: Rolison last pitched Saturday and Civale Friday. Peterson’s 2.83 August ERA also supports a competitive rebound. Bregman’s four homers over the last seven days and Crow-Armstrong’s recent power make an early Milwaukee bullpen handoff especially dangerous. That handoff is the main risk to this ticket. Anderson’s fresh IL absence removes an option, Ashby has worked three of the last four days, and Uribe would be making a third consecutive appearance. Megill threw 11 pitches yesterday, while Hall last pitched Saturday, giving Milwaukee a plausible finishing plan if Misiorowski supplies the length I expect. Their availability remains unconfirmed. An announced restriction on Megill or Hall could change my assessment, particularly if Uribe also needs rest. I endorse the run line because I expect Milwaukee’s early offensive advantage, effective starting innings and additional scoring to carry through the finish. If Misiorowski’s command fails again, Chicago’s less recently used relief options make preserving that advantage much harder.

Misiorowski’s job is to make that offensive advantage hold up through the middle innings. He completed six innings in each of his four starts before Chicago’s latest meeting with him. His season opponent OPS is .396 against left-handed hitters and .577 against right-handers. But the Cubs just reached him for five earned runs and four walks. I’m expecting his command to improve enough to provide effective length; a corrected delivery remains an assumption.

I expect Milwaukee to add some scoring after Peterson leaves, with Bauers’ .890 season OPS providing a productive bench option. Chicago has credible answers, though: Rolison last pitched Saturday and Civale Friday. Peterson’s 2.83 August ERA also supports a competitive rebound. Bregman’s four homers over the last seven days and Crow-Armstrong’s recent power make an early Milwaukee bullpen handoff especially dangerous.

That handoff is the main risk to this ticket. Anderson’s fresh IL absence removes an option, Ashby has worked three of the last four days, and Uribe would be making a third consecutive appearance. Megill threw 11 pitches yesterday, while Hall last pitched Saturday, giving Milwaukee a plausible finishing plan if Misiorowski supplies the length I expect. Their availability remains unconfirmed. An announced restriction on Megill or Hall could change my assessment, particularly if Uribe also needs rest.

I endorse the run line because I expect Milwaukee’s early offensive advantage, effective starting innings and additional scoring to carry through the finish. If Misiorowski’s command fails again, Chicago’s less recently used relief options make preserving that advantage much harder.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· +114

I expect Texas to get more innings from its starter and reach the late innings ahead. Cal Quantrill has 19 strikeouts against two walks across his last three starts, completing seven, six and six innings. Bryce Miller failed to finish five in each of his last three. His latest outing brought fewer walks and just one earned run, but seven hits leave me unconvinced that his struggles are behind him. Texas has ways to make that difference count. Joc Pederson brings an .833 OPS against right-handers into the leadoff spot, while Miller has allowed lefties a .762 OPS. Ezequiel Duran is 17-for-50 over the last 15 days, and Jake Burger’s recent production adds another threat. That supports an offense capable of building rallies, although Miller’s effective splitter and Burger’s .674 season OPS against righties temper the argument. Seattle’s strongest answer starts with Arozarena’s success against sinkers, Canzone’s production against four-seamers, and Raleigh and Crawford’s recent hitting. Quantrill must navigate that order before his recent depth becomes an advantage tonight. If Seattle forces him out early, its lightly used bullpen can protect a lead while Texas has more innings to cover. The pitcher-friendly park also leaves little room to waste scoring opportunities. My expected finish relies on Latz and Junis being usable after Monday’s off-day. Their season ERAs of 1.85 and 2.74 support that route, but their individual availability remains an assumption. A confirmed restriction on either would weaken the late-inning case. The central baseball assumption is that Quantrill sustains his command against this left-heavy lineup. With those uncertainties acknowledged, I still expect Texas to win outright and endorse the supplied price.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

DREW ANDERSONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -138

Anderson has completed six innings only once in eight starts, leaving this under with a full out of protection if he reaches the end of the fifth. Minnesota saw him six days ago, and its patient top half can make him work even without doing major damage. Detroit also has rested alternatives behind him, including Tyler Holton and Kyle Finnegan. Anderson may pitch effectively again, but I expect his night to end before the sixth is complete.

GARY'S PICK

KAELEN CULPEPPERHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -143

Culpepper has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 15 games and enters tonight after collecting two against Detroit in the opener. His .305 season average is supported by a steady contact profile, and he has already shown he can handle right-handed pitching. Batting eighth limits the ceiling, but one hit is enough, and Anderson has generally worked only about five innings. That should give Culpepper opportunities against both the starter and a bullpen whose primary late-inning arms have carried a heavy recent workload.

THE LONG SHOT

RILEY GREENEHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +550

Greene has three home runs across his last three games, including the deciding shot in last night's opener. The matchup keeps him live: Kremer has allowed a .852 OPS and nine home runs to left-handed hitters, while his four-seam fastball and especially his sinker have been vulnerable when they catch the plate. Comerica Park and the wind lower the home-run expectation, but +550 pays for that concern. With Greene batting cleanup and seeing the ball this well, the price is worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON YOUNGPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -152

I’m backing Cleveland to collect at least five hits. Young has allowed five or more in six of his last eight starts and averages 5.5 hits allowed per start. Kwan, Bazzana and Lowe all hit right-handed pitching well, while the switch hitters lengthen the matchup. Young has handled lefties effectively overall, which makes the -152 price my concern, but his typical workload should give this lineup enough opportunities to clear the number.

GARY'S PICK

TANNER BIBEEK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -146

Bibee has finished below six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts and averages only 4.6 per start this season. His fastballs have produced modest swing-and-miss rates, and recent command trouble creates a second path to the under by driving up his pitch count. Baltimore’s lineup does carry real strikeout risk, so six is certainly reachable, but Bibee has not consistently converted his innings into that many punchouts.

THE LONG SHOT

NATHANIEL LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +575

The price puts me on Lowe for the long shot. All 16 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and Young has surrendered eight homers across his last six starts. Lowe also showed his pull-side damage with last night’s three-run shot. Batting fifth costs him some plate-appearance equity, and Young has limited left-handed hitters overall, but +575 is enough compensation for a power matchup that only needs to connect once.

GARY'S PICK

PATRICK SANDOVALPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -146

I only need two earned runs against a pitcher who has allowed at least two in six of his last eight starts. Sandoval carries a 1.73 WHIP, has walked nine over his last 15 innings and has been particularly vulnerable with his sinker and four-seam fastball. That creates opportunities for Zach Neto and Mike Trout at the top of an Angels lineup featuring eight right-handed bats. Los Angeles has struggled to score, but this number is low enough that one traffic-heavy inning can cash it before Boston's bullpen takes over.

GARY'S PICK

CONNOR WONGH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -141

Wong has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15 games, and his .748 OPS against left-handed pitching is stronger than his overall mark. Batting ninth lowers his volume, but it also puts Roman Anthony, Jahmai Jones and Wilyer Abreu directly behind him if he reaches. Detmers is pitching exceptionally well and has held right-handed hitters to a .615 OPS, so I am keeping the confidence modest. The appeal is having three ways to clear a line of only half a contribution.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSE SIRIHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +700

This is a price play on Siri's power against a vulnerable left-hander. Five of Siri's seven home runs have come against lefties despite only 88 at-bats in that split. Sandoval has allowed six homers in 10 starts, and three of his four primary pitches have been hit hard enough to leave him exposed when he misses location. Siri is 0-for-26 over the last 15 days, which makes the failure risk obvious, but that drought is also why I am getting +700 on a hitter batting third with pull-side access to Fenway's short left-field corner.

GARY'S PICK

ESTEURY RUIZH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -165

Ruiz has finished with fewer than two combined hits, runs and RBIs in 13 of his last 15 games. He is hitting .158 over that span, and his limited recent playing time makes it difficult to assume an immediate offensive rebound. The left-handed matchup is the danger because Ruiz has handled lefties well this season, and his speed can turn one time on base into a run. Still, this ticket survives one isolated contribution. I am betting against him producing multiple events in the same game.

GARY'S PICK

DEYVISON DE LOS SANTOSHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -136

I need one hit from De Los Santos against a starter who has allowed right-handed hitters a .278 average and .867 OPS. Manaea has surrendered 31 hits and 15 earned runs over his last three starts, and his sinker and cutter have been especially hittable this season. De Los Santos has a hit in four of his six major-league games and owns four hits, including two doubles, in 12 at-bats. That is a tiny sample, but batting sixth should give him enough opportunities to cash this before Miami reaches the bullpen.

THE LONG SHOT

HERIBERTO HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +390

Hernandez is my long-shot swing. He has 10 home runs in 127 at-bats against left-handed pitching and has gone deep five times in his last 15 games. Manaea has allowed 16 home runs to right-handed hitters, carries a 10.9% barrel rate allowed and has surrendered eight homers across his last four starts. Hernandez bats leadoff, so he should receive four or five chances to find one pitch he can drive. His strikeout rate creates plenty of empty trips, but +390 is enough compensation for that volatility and the matchup with Manaea's recent home-run trouble.

GARY'S PICK

HAYDEN WESNESKIK'S OVER 3.5

MLBHouston Astros· -122

Wesneski has cleared this number in all seven starts, and he has recorded at least four strikeouts even when limited to four or five innings. His sweeper and changeup are legitimate swing-and-miss pitches, while Philadelphia’s lineup has enough strikeouts beyond Luis Arraez to give him multiple paths to four. The Phillies are sending six left-handed hitters at him, but he has handled lefties well and struck out nine of the last 30 he faced across his two most recent starts. I’m backing the low threshold rather than asking him to pitch deep.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW PAINTERPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +106

Painter has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight starts, and plus money is enough for me to play that recurring volatility. Houston’s first three hitters are especially capable of extending plate appearances: Yordan Alvarez and Isaac Paredes have combined for 160 walks this season, and Jeremy Peña gives Painter another test before he reaches the middle of the order. Painter’s recent command has improved, so this is not a high-conviction play, but he should face the top of the lineup three times if he works his normal workload. Two walks is a fair target at this price.

THE LONG SHOT

YAINER DIAZHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +800

Diaz is my long-shot swing because his current power is better than the price suggests. He has three home runs over his last 15 games, carries a 1.104 OPS in that span and is batting sixth, where Houston’s best hitters can create RBI situations ahead of him. Painter has been excellent lately, but his four-seam fastball has allowed loud contact throughout the season, and Citizens Bank Park is particularly favorable to right-handed power. Painter has generally controlled right-handed hitters, which keeps this speculative, but Diaz’s recent form and the +800 return make him the best option on this home-run board.

GARY'S PICK

TJ RUMFIELDH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -168

Rumfield has cleared this in 12 of his last 15 games while batting .310 with an .881 OPS against right-handers. Schlittler is a difficult matchup, but Rumfield only needs one hit, run or RBI from the third spot, and his current form gives him multiple paths to cash.

THE LONG SHOT

LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +420

Garcia has hit 25 of his 28 home runs against right-handers and brings a .902 OPS in that split into a cleanup assignment at Yankee Stadium. Hughes relies heavily on a 92.4 mph four-seamer, has a 9.00 road ERA and is followed by a vulnerable Colorado bullpen. The short right-field porch gives Garcia the best combination of matchup, park and price on this home-run board.

GARY'S PICK

MICKEY MONIAKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -136

Moniak owns an .859 OPS against right-handed pitching and bats fifth behind three hitters who reach base at useful rates. Schlittler can overpower him, so this is not a comfortable matchup, but one single or one productive plate appearance can settle a modest line at a playable price.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE TEELWALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -200

Teel has gone without a walk in 13 of his last 15 games and owns just six walks in 72 at-bats this season. Batting ninth also limits the chances he gets to draw one. Chandler's command creates some danger, but Teel's strikeout-heavy profile makes the under playable even at the steep price.

GARY'S PICK

ONEIL CRUZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -135

Cruz has recorded a hit in nine of his last 15 games and gets roughly four trips from the cleanup spot to find one. He owns a .250 average against right-handed pitching, while Burke has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .225. Burke can miss bats, but his recent control trouble should create favorable counts and opportunities for Cruz.

THE LONG SHOT

RAFAEL FLORES JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +600

Flores has legitimate long-shot power, with seven home runs in only 94 at-bats. Burke has been difficult on right-handed hitters, but his sinker and slider have been the vulnerable parts of his arsenal, giving Flores a mistake-pitch path to a homer. At +600, the payout compensates me for the difficult matchup and limited plate appearances.

GARY'S PICK

MATT OLSONWALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -169

Olson has gone without a walk in 12 of his last 15 games, and Peralta has issued only one across his last 19 innings. Peralta is attacking the zone with his delivery back in rhythm, while Olson has struck out 161 times this season and is only 1-for-24 over the last seven days. Olson's discipline and third-place lineup spot make the price demanding, but the current command matchup favors another night without a free pass.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +344

Olson has 37 home runs this season, including 23 against right-handed pitching, and he has taken Peralta deep twice in 16 career at-bats. Peralta has allowed 17 home runs to left-handed hitters and works primarily with an elevated four-seam fastball, giving Olson a pitch he can lift when Peralta comes into the zone. Olson's current slump is the clear risk, but his established power and history in this matchup make +344 worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

SEAN MURPHYH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -147

Murphy has cleared this in nine of his last 15 games and owns nine hits with three homers over his last 26 at-bats. This market gives me multiple paths: one hit settles it, but he can also score after reaching or produce an RBI without a hit. Batting ninth limits his plate appearances, but it also puts Harris and Acuña behind him when the order turns over. Peralta's recent command keeps this from being a stronger play, but Murphy's production and the forgiving line are enough for me at -147.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL WACHAPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -107

Wacha has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts, including each of his last three, when he completed 21 innings with 23 strikeouts and only three walks. Arizona is averaging 3.5 runs over its last 10 games, and Kansas City has added incentive to let Wacha work after using Pearson for two innings and Cruz and Kimbrel late Monday. Arizona's right-handed bats are the concern, but at nearly even money I trust Wacha to complete six.

GARY'S PICK

TIM TAWAH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -132

Tawa has stayed under this number in 11 of his last 15 games and is hitting eighth against a starter who has completed at least six innings in each of his last three outings. Tawa owns a .600 OPS over his last 15 days and has driven in a run only once across his last 15 games. A lone single does not beat me here; he needs a second contribution from a lineup spot that limits both plate appearances and run-producing opportunities.

THE LONG SHOT

NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +570

Arenado is 11-for-22 with four home runs against Wacha, making this a rare long-shot price backed by a specific matchup. Wacha has allowed 24 homers this season, with 16 coming against right-handed hitters, and eight of the last 11 scoring plays against him have left the yard. Arenado's recent form is the obvious risk, but the history and Wacha's vulnerability to right-handed power give me enough at +570.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHITS OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -132

Crow-Armstrong has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 15 games, including two last night, and the leadoff spot should give him four or five chances. Misiorowski is the obvious obstacle: Crow-Armstrong is 0-for-10 against him, and left-handed hitters have managed only a .117 average this season. But Chicago forced Misiorowski out after four innings six days ago, and Milwaukee's bullpen enters with several heavily used arms. The combination of current form, maximum plate-appearance volume and potential exposure to the middle relief corps gets me over the price.

GARY'S PICK

SEIYA SUZUKIH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -176

This market gives Suzuki several ways to cash from the second spot. He has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in nine of his last 15 games, and a walk can become a run with Bregman and Busch behind him. Suzuki also owns three hits, including a home run, in nine career at-bats against Misiorowski. The price is demanding, especially with Suzuki hitting .105 in September, but his matchup history and place near the top of the order make one contribution more likely than not.

THE LONG SHOT

SEIYA SUZUKIHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +680

Suzuki is my long-shot swing because the price is considerably longer than Crow-Armstrong's while Suzuki already has a home run against Misiorowski in nine career at-bats. Misiorowski's fastball command deserted him in the previous meeting, when Chicago scored five runs in four innings, and right-handed hitters have had substantially more success against him than lefties. Suzuki has 24 homers and enough opposite-field power for American Family Field. Misiorowski's 1.62 home ERA makes this a true long shot, but +680 adequately pays for that difficulty.

Hub research

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BULLPENTEX @ SEA
Texas Rangers pen: 18 relief IP across 3 games
5 of those innings came from Kumar Rocker on Sep 4 (73 pitches). Tyler Alexander worked all 3 games (47 pitches); Jacob Latz worked 2 games (40 pitches; 1.85 season ERA over 63.1 IP). The pen allowed 10 ER in that 18-IP span (Sep 4–Sep 6). No team game on Sep 7.
FANTASY USAGEat SEA
Rhamondre Stevenson
START: Use Stevenson as a PPR flex before Wednesday kickoff; his receiving work breaks the tie with Price Why now: The provider estimates 14.1 PPR points from 13.6 carries and three receptions. His final five 2025 games also averaged three catches, while Price's current estimate favors rushing volume and trails Stevenson 14.1 to 13.6 in PPR. Who it fits: PPR managers choosing Stevenson for an RB2 or flex spot, especially when the alternative is Jadarian Price. The risk: Price is projected for 16.3 carries to Stevenson's 13.6 and scores slightly better in standard, so this preference depends on reception scoring. Watch next: Check Stevenson's final game status and any refreshed workload projection before the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff Wednesday. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 09, 08:20 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEvs SF
Matthew Stafford
START: Start Stafford over Stroud or Young on Thursday, while keeping Herbert ahead of him Why now: The provider projects Stafford for 17.5 points, ahead of Stroud's 16.2 and Young's 15.7. Stafford's final five 2025 games produced 326.8 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game, supporting the forecast while remaining a historical baseline. Who it fits: One-QB managers choosing among Stafford, Stroud and Young, or superflex managers needing a second starter. The risk: Herbert carries the stronger current estimate at 19 points, and Stafford's scheduled game does not confirm that he will start. Watch next: Verify Stafford's final status and the provider projection before Thursday's 8:35 p.m. ET kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 10, 08:35 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Devaughn Vele
CONSIDER ADD: Check for Vele in deeper PPR leagues before paying for a thinner receiver profile Why now: If available, Vele offers a provider estimate of six targets and 9.3 PPR points. His five-game 2025 baseline averaged 5.8 targets and 50.8 yards, while Tucker is estimated for 4.7 targets and 9.1 PPR points this week. Who it fits: Deep PPR or half-PPR managers needing receiver depth rather than an immediate high-end starter. The risk: There are no 2026 game observations, his starting role is unconfirmed, and the 2025 sample is 268 days old. Watch next: Check his final game status, updated target projection and actual Week 1 targets before treating him as a lineup option. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Juwan Johnson
CONSIDER ADD: Juwan Johnson is the best conditional PPR tight-end add in this pool Why now: If available, Johnson's provider estimate is 4.1 catches and 8.8 PPR points, slightly above Schultz's 8.4. Johnson also averaged 4.6 catches and 62.6 yards over his final five 2025 games, although that historical stretch contained no touchdowns. Who it fits: PPR managers lacking a dependable tight end or needing an early-season streaming option. The risk: Availability is unknown, no 2026 usage has been observed, and the current projection does not confirm a starting role. Watch next: Check Johnson's final status and refreshed target estimate before Sunday's 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs BUF
C.J. Stroud
CONSIDER ADD: Stroud is a conditional QB2 add, not the preferred Week 1 streamer Why now: If available, Stroud's 16.2-point estimate is useful for two-quarterback or superflex depth. His final five 2025 games averaged 212.6 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns, but Stafford carries the better Week 1 estimate at 17.5. Who it fits: Two-quarterback or superflex managers seeking a QB2 or backup; the case is weaker in a one-quarterback league. The risk: Specific-league availability is unknown, no 2026 performance has been observed, and the scheduled game does not confirm his start. Watch next: Check his final status and any projection change before Sunday's 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs CLE
Bhayshul Tuten
SIT: Prefer Love to Tuten in reception formats until Tuten's enlarged workload appears in a game Why now: The provider projects a sharp change for Tuten: 15 carries and 12.9 PPR points after he averaged 4.6 carries and 13.8 rushing yards in his final five 2025 games. Love's current estimate is higher in half-PPR and PPR, so Tuten need not absorb that role uncertainty in this choice. Who it fits: Half-PPR or PPR managers choosing between Tuten and Jeremiyah Love for an RB2 or flex spot. The risk: Tuten's old sample does not establish his 2026 role; the current forecast may be capturing a legitimate change that has not yet produced observed results. Watch next: Check the final player status and refreshed workload estimate before Sunday's 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEat IND
Mark Andrews
SIT: Use Goedert over Andrews; the small forecast edge has stronger recent production behind it Why now: Goedert's provider estimate leads Andrews 10.9 to 10.1 in PPR and 8.8 to 8.4 in half-PPR. In their final five 2025 games, Goedert averaged 4.4 catches and 43 yards with four touchdowns; Andrews averaged 2.2 catches and 18 yards without a touchdown. Who it fits: Half-PPR or PPR managers choosing directly between Andrews and Dallas Goedert at tight end. The risk: Both samples are historical, and the provider gives Andrews a slightly higher receiving-touchdown estimate, 0.42 to 0.39. Watch next: Check both players' final statuses and refreshed target projections before their Sunday kickoffs. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET. Make this comparison before Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET, when the earliest game in this set starts.
FANTASY USAGEat MIN
Chris Brooks
WATCH: Let Week 1 reveal Brooks' role before using a bench move on the projection Why now: The provider estimates 6.4 carries, 1.9 receptions and 7.6 PPR points, but there are no 2026 observations. His final five 2025 games were uneven: one contained 13 carries for 61 yards, while none of the other recorded rushing games exceeded two carries. Who it fits: Deep PPR managers monitoring speculative running backs without needing to force an immediate add. The risk: Waiting could make him more expensive or unavailable if the projected workload materializes; current league availability is already unknown. Watch next: Watch his Week 1 carries and targets, then compare them with the next provider projection before making a roster decision. Evidence as of Sep 08, 06:04 PM ET.
HEAT CHECKTEX @ SEA
Cal Raleigh: 1.376 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 AB: a 1.376 OPS versus .675 for the season, 0.701 above his norm. He has 21 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKSTL @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.398 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 57 AB: a 1.398 OPS versus .856 for the season, 0.542 above his norm. He has 35 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDTOR @ OAK
Athletics 1-7 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts
Athletics are 1-7 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts this season.
HEAT CHECKWSH @ SD
Daylen Lile: 1.358 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.358 OPS spans the last 15 days (48 AB) against a .747 season baseline, a 0.611 swing. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDTEX @ SEA
Mariners 1-7 in Bryce Miller's last 8 starts
Mariners are 1-7 in Bryce Miller's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ BAL
Guardians 1-7 in Tanner Bibee's last 8 starts
Guardians are 1-7 in Tanner Bibee's last 8 starts this season.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ BOS
Angels 1-7 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts
Angels are 1-7 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row.
TEAM RECORDCHC @ MIL
Brewers 7-1 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts
Brewers are 7-1 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ PHI
Astros 6-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 7 starts
Astros are 6-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BAL
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Brandon Young (RHP), batting 5th
Nathaniel Lowe has an .844 OPS in 305 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .295 in 39 AB vs. left-handers. He bats fifth tonight against RHP Brandon Young.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
BATTER VS ARMARI @ KC
Nolan Arenado vs Michael Wacha: .500
Nolan Arenado has gone 11-for-22 (.500) across 22 career at-bats off Michael Wacha, with 4 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.384 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
PARK WEATHERARI @ KC
Wind blowing out 12 mph at Kauffman Stadium tonight
Kauffman Stadium is forecast at 98° and clear tonight, with a 12 mph wind blowing out to left field for ARI @ KC. The total is 9.
P final total 8 vs 9 (over lean)
HEAT CHECKARI @ KC
Carter Jensen: 1.252 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (42 AB) he is at a 1.252 OPS, up 0.496 on his .756 season mark. He has 22 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKPIT @ CHW
Tristan Peters: 1.270 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.270 OPS spans the last 15 days (47 AB) against a .822 season baseline, a 0.448 swing. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ OAK
Josh Smith (bats L) draws Jack Perkins (RHP), batting 5th
Josh Smith carries a .720 OPS vs. Right (145 AB) against .254 the other way (27 AB), and faces RHP Jack Perkins from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ SF
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Landen Roupp (RHP)
Over 376 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .936 OPS versus .540 in 176 AB the other way. He sees RHP Landen Roupp tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB, 3 BB
BULLPENCOL @ NYY
Colorado Rockies pen: 12.2 relief IP over their last 3 games
Mark Manfredi worked 2 games (42 pitches); Jordan Romano worked 2 games (34 pitches; 4.88 season ERA over 27.2 IP). The pen allowed 11 ER in that 12.2-IP span (Sep 4–Sep 6). No team game on Sep 7.
COOLING OFFTB @ ATL
Matt Olson: .427 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .427 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 AB) against a .831 season baseline, a 0.404 drop.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADTEX @ SEA
Rangers are 7-3 vs Mariners this season
Rangers lead the season series 7-3 over Mariners. TEX won the last meeting 7-3.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAA @ BOS
Red Sox are 4-0 vs Angels this season
Red Sox lead the season series 4-0 over Angels. BOS won the last meeting 5-2.
TEAM RECORDCOL @ NYY
Rockies 2-6 in Gabriel Hughes's last 8 starts
Rockies are 2-6 in Gabriel Hughes's last 8 starts this season.
TEAM RECORDMIN @ DET
Twins 1-5 in Dean Kremer's last 6 starts
Twins are 1-5 in Dean Kremer's last 6 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row.
HEAT CHECKLAA @ BOS
Mickey Gasper: 1.433 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (34 AB) he is at a 1.433 OPS, up 0.558 on his .875 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season.
COOLING OFFWSH @ SD
CJ Abrams: .431 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .431 OPS spans the last 15 days (48 AB) against a .836 season baseline, a 0.405 drop.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper owns a 1.027 OPS in 308 AB vs. right-handers, above his .675 mark in 195 AB vs. left-handers. He bats third tonight against RHP Hayden Wesneski.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ LAD
Elly De La Cruz: 1.223 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.223 OPS spans the last 15 days (51 AB) against a .859 season baseline, a 0.364 swing. He has 24 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
BULLPENPIT @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
Hagen Smith worked 2 games (61 pitches); Grant Taylor worked 2 games (50 pitches; 2.16 season ERA over 75 IP). The pen allowed 3 ER in that 16-IP span (Sep 4–Sep 6). No team game on Sep 7.
BULLPENARI @ KC
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 14.2 relief IP over their last 3 games
Brandyn Garcia worked all 3 games (31 pitches); Kevin Ginkel worked 2 games (26 pitches; 4.07 season ERA over 59.2 IP). The pen allowed 4 ER in that 14.2-IP span (Sep 5–Sep 7).
HEAT CHECKSTL @ SF
Thomas Saggese: 1.608 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.608 OPS spans the last 15 days (24 AB) against a .790 season baseline, a 0.818 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEARI @ KC
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Lars Nootbaar's vs. Right line (.754 OPS, 196 AB) sits well above his .478 mark the other way (36 AB). Tonight's starter Michael Wacha throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFLAA @ BOS
Jose Siri: .071 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Jose Siri's .071 OPS over the last 15 days (26 AB) trails his .660 season mark, down 0.589. Tonight he draws LHP Patrick Sandoval — his weaker side: a .622 OPS vs LHP across 88 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ ATL
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP)
Liam Hicks has an .890 OPS in 341 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .513 in 93 AB vs. left-handers. He bats fourth tonight against RHP AJ Smith-Shawver.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ SF
Bryan Torres (bats L) draws Landen Roupp (RHP), batting 1st
Bryan Torres carries a .757 OPS vs. Right (114 AB) against .486 the other way (25 AB), and faces RHP Landen Roupp from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ CHW
Munetaka Murakami: .482 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .482 OPS spans the last 15 days (51 AB) against a .828 season baseline, a 0.346 drop.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKWSH @ SD
WSH have lost 5 straight
Washington Nationals have dropped 5 straight, outscored by 15 runs over the skid; 4-6 across their last 10.
P team lost 4-5
STREAKLAA @ BOS
BOS have won 5 straight
BOS have taken 5 straight and own a +12 run differential over the run. Last 10: 6-4.
P team lost 6-1
COOLING OFFCOL @ NYY
Mickey Moniak: .434 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 AB: a .434 OPS versus .792 for the season, 0.358 below his norm.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFSTL @ SF
Alec Burleson: .495 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .495 OPS spans the last 15 days (53 AB) against a .810 season baseline, a 0.315 drop.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB, 3 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ KC
Nolan Arenado: .384 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 AB) he is at a .384 OPS, down 0.349 from his .733 season mark.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ CHW
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Sean Burke (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe owns an .891 OPS in 355 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .614 in 169 AB vs. left-handers. He bats second tonight against RHP Sean Burke.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ PHI
Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Yordan Alvarez carries a 1.104 OPS in 363 AB vs. right-handers, above his .840 mark in 146 AB vs. left-handers. He bats second tonight against RHP Andrew Painter.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKTB @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.146 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 AB: a 1.146 OPS versus .792 for the season, 0.354 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIN @ DET
Twins are 7-4 vs Tigers this season
Minnesota is 7-4 against Detroit across 11 meetings this season, but Detroit won the last meeting 5-4. The supplied facts do not show which arms they faced or where those games were played.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHC @ MIL
Brewers are 7-4 vs Cubs this season
Brewers lead the season series 7-4 over Cubs. MIL won the last meeting 4-3.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BAL
Samuel Basallo (bats L) draws Tanner Bibee (RHP), batting 5th
Samuel Basallo has a .795 OPS in 244 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .466 in 84 AB vs. left-handers. He bats fifth tonight against RHP Tanner Bibee.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ NYY
TJ Rumfield: 1.194 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 AB: a 1.194 OPS versus .850 for the season, 0.344 above his norm. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ MIA
Juan Soto (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Juan Soto owns a 1.010 OPS in 206 AB vs. right-handers, above his .758 mark in 115 AB vs. left-handers. He bats second tonight against RHP Sandy Alcantara.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMTEX @ SEA
Bryce Miller: 7.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.90 ERA over his last 13.2 innings with a 1.90 WHIP (1.11 season) — the 4.01 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFHOU @ PHI
Christian Walker: .468 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andrew Painter
Christian Walker's .468 OPS over the last 15 days (52 AB) trails his .723 season mark, down 0.255. Tonight he draws RHP Andrew Painter — his weaker side: a .705 OPS vs RHP across 403 AB.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIN @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .427 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 43 AB: a .427 OPS versus .764 for the season, 0.337 below his norm.
STARTER FORMHOU @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
Andrew Painter has tightened his command, limited traffic and continued missing bats across his last three starts. Houston is facing the sharper current version tonight.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFTOR @ OAK
Ernie Clement: .369 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .369 OPS spans the last 15 days (45 AB) against a .687 season baseline, a 0.318 drop.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ NYY
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Mickey Moniak carries an .859 OPS in 279 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .558 in 80 AB vs. left-handers. He bats fifth tonight against RHP Cam Schlittler.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKWSH @ SD
SD games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for SD — their games are producing only 5.8 runs against numbers around 7.3. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 9 vs 8
STREAKCIN @ LAD
LAD have won 4 straight
4 wins in a row for LAD, a +6 run margin across the streak — they come in 6-4 over their last 10.
P team won 2-3
REGRESSIONTOR @ OAK
Brett Bateman: .333 AVG vs .256 xBA
Brett Bateman's .333 average comes against a .256 expected (xBA) on 121 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .357 against a .299 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENCHC @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Grant Anderson worked 2 games (61 pitches); Trevor Megill worked 1 game (11 pitches; 2.28 season ERA over 55.1 IP). The pen allowed 9 ER in that 13-IP span (Sep 5–Sep 7).
BULLPENCIN @ LAD
Cincinnati Reds pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
4.1 of those innings came from Brandon Williamson on Sep 7 (86 pitches). Brock Burke worked 2 games (21 pitches); Emilio Pagán worked 2 games (25 pitches; 3.93 season ERA over 36.2 IP). The pen allowed 6 ER in that 14-IP span (Sep 5–Sep 7).
HR THREATMets @ Marlins
Heriberto Hernandez
Gary's Take Hernandez is my long-shot swing. He has 10 home runs in 127 at-bats against left-handed pitching and has gone deep five times in his last 15 games.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMNYM @ MIA
Sean Manaea: 7.79 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sean Manaea is allowing too many runners and paying for nearly all of them. Miami gets a starter whose recent 7.79 ERA is far worse than the season-long case behind his price.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
PARK WEATHERPIT @ CHW
Wind blowing in 13 mph at Rate Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Rate Field — Clear, 83°, wind 13 mph, In From RF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 12 vs 8.5 (under lean)
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ OAK
Blue Jays are 3-1 vs Athletics this season
Toronto is 3-1 against Oakland across 4 meetings this season, though Oakland won the last one 6-5. No detail on pitchers, prior sites or how the other games were won is supplied for tonight.
NEXT SLATENFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
NEXT SLATENCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 11
BDL lists 2 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 2 kickoff times are confirmed.
STARTER FORMCIN @ LAD
Nick Lodolo: 8.10 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (13.1 IP) he has been tagged for 12 earned runs — a 8.10 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP (1.52 season) against a 5.08 season mark.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
HR THREATGuardians @ Orioles
Nathaniel Lowe
Gary's Take The price puts me on Lowe for the long shot. All 16 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and Young has surrendered eight homers across his last six starts.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATTwins @ Tigers
Riley Greene
Gary's Take Greene has three home runs across his last three games, including the deciding shot in last night's opener. The matchup keeps him live: Kremer has allowed a .852 OPS and nine home runs to left-handed hitters, while his four-seam fastball and especially his sinker have been vulnerable when they catch the plate.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMHOU @ PHI
Hayden Wesneski: 0.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Hayden Wesneski has controlled at-bats and allowed almost nothing across his last three starts. His current 0.53 ERA form makes the older season baseline less useful tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
PARK WEATHERSTL @ SF
Wind blowing out 12 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Partly Cloudy, 69°, wind 12 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 3 vs 7.5 (over lean)
STARTER FORMLAA @ BOS
Reid Detmers: 0.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
Reid Detmers has been far steadier than his season ERA suggests, allowing very little damage over his last three starts. Boston is not getting the vulnerable version implied by the broader numbers.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
BALLPARKCOL @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.41 ERA
Cam Schlittler has a 3.41 ERA over 68.2 innings and 13 games at Yankee Stadium, where hitters bat .245 against him. His ERA is 1.14 across a 103.0-inning baseline elsewhere, so the supplied split does not show the park driving his stronger results entering COL @ NYY.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
STARTER FORMTOR @ OAK
Jose Soriano: 5.94 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jose Soriano has lost the baserunner control that supported his stronger season results. Toronto can build pressure quickly if that extra traffic continues tonight.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
PARK WEATHERWSH @ SD
Wind blowing in 11 mph at Petco Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Petco Park — Clear, 86°, wind 11 mph, In From LF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 8.
P final total 9 vs 8 (under lean)
BATTER VS ARMARI @ KC
Salvador Perez vs Corbin Burnes: .467
Salvador Perez has gone 7-for-15 (.467) across 15 career at-bats off Corbin Burnes, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.793 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONTB @ ATL
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .257 xBA
Chandler Simpson is hitting .308 against a .257 expected average (xBA) over 548 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .307 against a .261 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
REGRESSIONNYM @ MIA
Esteury Ruiz: .234 AVG vs .187 xBA
Across 211 plate appearances, Esteury Ruiz carries a .234 average versus a .187 xBA. His wOBA sits at .343 against a .292 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/8
Jake Fraley
Jake Fraley is on Tampa Bay’s 60-day IL with a groin injury. His listed return date is today, but that’s a roster listing, not a guarantee. With a .690 OPS, I’m not holding unless my league is deep and I have an open IL spot. Deep-league stash only
REGRESSIONCHC @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn: .312 AVG vs .267 xBA
Across 311 plate appearances, Andrew Vaughn carries a .312 average versus a .267 xBA. His wOBA sits at .377 against a .335 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
BALLPARKMIN @ DET
At Comerica Park, Drew Anderson pitches to a 2.87 ERA
Comerica Park has been an excellent fit for Drew Anderson, helping him turn contact into outs on the way to a 2.87 home ERA. That comfort gives him room to challenge Minnesota tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/9
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. His listed return date is September 9, one day away, but the 5.16 ERA makes this a wait-and-see situation for me. Leave on the wire
PARK WEATHERCHC @ MIL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at American Family Field tonight
American Family Field is forecast at 76° and partly cloudy tonight, with a 10 mph wind blowing in from right field for CHC @ MIL. The total is 7.5, though the roof status is not supplied.
P final total 7 vs 7.5 (under lean)
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ BAL
Guardians are 3-2 vs Orioles this season
Cleveland is 3-2 against Baltimore across 5 meetings this season, while Baltimore won the last meeting 6-4. That narrow series record comes without pitcher, venue or win-pattern context for tonight’s game in Baltimore.
REGRESSIONWSH @ SD
Ty France: .288 AVG vs .249 xBA
Across 433 plate appearances, Ty France carries a .288 average versus a .249 xBA. His wOBA sits at .372 against a .331 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONPIT @ CHW
Esmerlyn Valdez: .233 AVG vs .195 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .233 average comes against a .195 expected (xBA) on 276 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .365 against a .328 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONCOL @ NYY
TJ Rumfield: .299 AVG vs .260 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .299 average comes against a .260 expected (xBA) on 565 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .334 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADNYM @ MIA
Marlins are 6-5 vs Mets this season
Miami is 6-5 against New York across 11 meetings this season, but the Mets won the last meeting 9-4. The record is close and includes no pitcher or prior-venue detail to explain tonight’s matchup.
HEAD-TO-HEADSTL @ SF
Giants are 1-0 vs Cardinals this season
Giants lead the season series 1-0 over Cardinals. SF won the last meeting 5-4.
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ LAD
Dodgers are 1-0 vs Reds this season
Dodgers lead the season series 1-0 over Reds. LAD won the last meeting 6-3.
HEAD-TO-HEADARI @ KC
Diamondbacks are 1-0 vs Royals this season
Diamondbacks lead the season series 1-0 over Royals. ARI won the last meeting 5-4.
REGRESSIONPIT @ CHW
Braden Montgomery: .219 AVG vs .254 xBA
Braden Montgomery's .219 average comes against a .254 expected (xBA) on 307 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .300 against a .329 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ NYY
Mickey Moniak: .251 AVG vs .218 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .251 average comes against a .218 expected (xBA) on 389 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .336 against a .285 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMNYM @ MIA
Marcus Semien vs Sandy Alcantara: .400
In 10 career at-bats against Sandy Alcantara, Marcus Semien is 4-for-10 for a 1.100 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters cold (.636 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Carter Baumler
Carter Baumler is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a rib injury. His listed return date is September 11, three days away. The 3.18 ERA is interesting, but as a reliever he’s only a stash where pitching depth carries real value. Deep-league stash
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/11
Ryne Nelson
Ryne Nelson is on Arizona’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. His listed return date is September 11, three days away, but a 4.97 ERA does not justify tying up a spot in most leagues. Leave on the wire
SITUATIONALCIN @ LAD
No off day for LAD in 6 days
LAD has not had an off day in 6 days — CIN got one yesterday.
P flagged side won 2-3
REGRESSIONNYM @ MIA
Javier Sanoja: .292 AVG vs .267 xBA
Javier Sanoja's .292 average comes against a .267 expected (xBA) on 417 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .338 against a .290 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FIRST INNINGCOL @ NYY
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of COL @ NYY
Neither side has been scoring early — a 1st-inning run in only 3 of 10 for NYY and 3 of 10 for COL games lately. Tonight's 1st-inning number: Over 0.5 -115 / Under 0.5 -115. Starters' first innings this season — Cam Schlittler 2.79 ERA, .196 BA against in first innings (29.0 IP, 6 HR); Gabriel Hughes 9.90 ERA, .326 BA against in first innings (10.0 IP, 1 HR).
P 1st inning: 0-1 (1 run)
RUNNING GAMEWSH @ SD
Washington Nationals like to run — Freddy Fermin (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Washington Nationals attempt 1.3 steals a game, but Freddy Fermin has cut down 23 of 71 runners (32%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Washington Nationals stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGWSH @ SD
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Washington has gone ten straight games without scoring in the first, and I expect another quiet opening tonight. The Nationals are more likely to find their offense later than put immediate pressure on Casey Mize.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
REGRESSIONHOU @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 25-13 in one-run games (.658 win%)
Philadelphia Phillies are 25-13 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (38 completed games). They are 56-50 in their other 106 completed games.
RUNNING GAMELAA @ BOS
Boston Red Sox like to run — Travis d'Arnaud (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
The Boston Red Sox attempt 0.9 steals per game. Travis d'Arnaud has caught 6 of 18 runners for a 33% caught-stealing rate, though those figures do not establish who will control the bases tonight.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMETEX @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Danny Jansen has caught just 15%
Danny Jansen is catching tonight at 15% on the season (6-for-40 throwing), and Seattle Mariners attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ SD
Padres and Nationals are square at 2-2 this season
The season series sits 2-2. SD won the last meeting 3-2.
FIRST INNINGARI @ KC
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Arizona has scored in the first just once over its last ten games, and Michael Wacha is well positioned to extend that trend. I expect the Diamondbacks to build their chances later rather than land the first punch.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGSTL @ SF
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
St. Louis has scored in the first inning only once in its last ten, and Landen Roupp has a strong chance to keep the top half clean. With Quinn Mathews making the bottom half less secure, the opening inning leans toward San Francisco.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGTB @ ATL
ATL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Atlanta has scored in the first inning just once in its last ten, and Freddy Peralta is a tough draw for an instant breakthrough. I expect the Braves to start quietly and the scoring to wait until the middle innings.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/18
Gavin Stone
Gavin Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His listed return date is September 18, ten days away, and there’s no season line available to strengthen the case. I’d only use a spare IL slot in a deep league. Speculative deep-league stash

Graded results

Games

L
Tigers ML -132
MLB · 3-2
L
Marlins ML -124
MLB · 7-5
L
Orioles ML -118
MLB · 9-5
L
Phillies ML -142
MLB · 6-5
L
White Sox ML -146
MLB · 9-3
L
Brewers -1.5 +100
MLB · 3-4
L
Royals ML +102
MLB · 5-3
W
Rangers ML +114
MLB · 10-5
L
Red Sox ML -144
MLB · 6-1
W
Yankees -1.5 -162
MLB · 3-5
W
Rays ML -102
MLB · 7-1

Props

W
Andrew Painter · over
Astros @ Phillies · Actual 2
W
Brandon Young · over
Guardians @ Orioles · Actual 8
L
Connor Wong · over
Angels @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Deyvison De Los Santos · over
Mets @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Drew Anderson · under
Twins @ Tigers · Actual 16
W
Esteury Ruiz · under
Mets @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Hayden Wesneski · over
Astros @ Phillies · Actual 3
L
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Mets @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Jose Siri · over
Angels @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Kaelen Culpepper · over
Twins @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Kyle Teel · under
Pirates @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Rockies @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Matt Olson · over
Rays @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Matt Olson · under
Rays @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Michael Wacha · over
Diamondbacks @ Royals · Actual 18
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rockies @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Guardians @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Nolan Arenado · over
Diamondbacks @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Oneil Cruz · over
Pirates @ White Sox · Actual 3
W
Patrick Sandoval · over
Angels @ Red Sox · Actual 4
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Brewers · Actual 1
W
Rafael Flores Jr. · over
Pirates @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Riley Greene · over
Twins @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Sean Murphy · over
Rays @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Seiya Suzuki · over
Cubs @ Brewers · Actual 0
W
Seiya Suzuki · over
Cubs @ Brewers · Actual 2
W
Tanner Bibee · under
Guardians @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Tim Tawa · under
Diamondbacks @ Royals · Actual 6
W
TJ Rumfield · over
Rockies @ Yankees · Actual 2
L
Yainer Diaz · over
Astros @ Phillies · Actual 0