Angels at Red Sox

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  PATRICK SANDOVALPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· -146

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  GARY'S TAKE

  I only need two earned runs against a pitcher who has allowed at least two in six of his last eight starts. Sandoval carries a 1.73 WHIP, has walked nine over his last 15 innings and has been particularly vulnerable with his sinker and four-seam fastball. That creates opportunities for Zach Neto and Mike Trout at the top of an Angels lineup featuring eight right-handed bats. Los Angeles has struggled to score, but this number is low enough that one traffic-heavy inning can cash it before Boston's bullpen takes over.

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  Patrick Sandoval
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 1.5

  -146 · CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  I only need two earned runs against a pitcher who has allowed at least two in six of his last eight starts. Sandoval carries a 1.73 WHIP, has walked nine over his last 15 innings and has been particularly vulnerable with his sinker and four-seam fastball. That creates opportunities for Zach Neto and Mike Trout at the top of an Angels lineup featuring eight right-handed bats. Los Angeles has struggled to score, but this number is low enough that one traffic-heavy inning can cash it before Boston's bullpen takes over.

• GARY'S PICK

  CONNOR WONGH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· -141

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Wong has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15 games, and his .748 OPS against left-handed pitching is stronger than his overall mark. Batting ninth lowers his volume, but it also puts Roman Anthony, Jahmai Jones and Wilyer Abreu directly behind him if he reaches. Detmers is pitching exceptionally well and has held right-handed hitters to a .615 OPS, so I am keeping the confidence modest. The appeal is having three ways to clear a line of only half a contribution.

  ×

  Connor Wong
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -141 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Wong has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15 games, and his .748 OPS against left-handed pitching is stronger than his overall mark. Batting ninth lowers his volume, but it also puts Roman Anthony, Jahmai Jones and Wilyer Abreu directly behind him if he reaches. Detmers is pitching exceptionally well and has held right-handed hitters to a .615 OPS, so I am keeping the confidence modest. The appeal is having three ways to clear a line of only half a contribution.

• THE LONG SHOT

  JOSE SIRIHR OVER 0.5

  MLBLos Angeles Angels· +700

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is a price play on Siri's power against a vulnerable left-hander. Five of Siri's seven home runs have come against lefties despite only 88 at-bats in that split. Sandoval has allowed six homers in 10 starts, and three of his four primary pitches have been hit hard enough to leave him exposed when he misses location. Siri is 0-for-26 over the last 15 days, which makes the failure risk obvious, but that drought is also why I am getting +700 on a hitter batting third with pull-side access to Fenway's short left-field corner.

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  Jose Siri
  HR over 0.5

  +700 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Los Angeles Angels

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is a price play on Siri's power against a vulnerable left-hander. Five of Siri's seven home runs have come against lefties despite only 88 at-bats in that split. Sandoval has allowed six homers in 10 starts, and three of his four primary pitches have been hit hard enough to leave him exposed when he misses location. Siri is 0-for-26 over the last 15 days, which makes the failure risk obvious, but that drought is also why I am getting +700 on a hitter batting third with pull-side access to Fenway's short left-field corner.