Guardians at Orioles

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  BRANDON YOUNGPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

  MLBBaltimore Orioles· -152

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 8

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m backing Cleveland to collect at least five hits. Young has allowed five or more in six of his last eight starts and averages 5.5 hits allowed per start. Kwan, Bazzana and Lowe all hit right-handed pitching well, while the switch hitters lengthen the matchup. Young has handled lefties effectively overall, which makes the -152 price my concern, but his typical workload should give this lineup enough opportunities to clear the number.

  ×

  Brandon Young
  Pitcher Hits Allowed over 4.5

  -152 · CASHED · ACTUAL 8

  Baltimore Orioles

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m backing Cleveland to collect at least five hits. Young has allowed five or more in six of his last eight starts and averages 5.5 hits allowed per start. Kwan, Bazzana and Lowe all hit right-handed pitching well, while the switch hitters lengthen the matchup. Young has handled lefties effectively overall, which makes the -152 price my concern, but his typical workload should give this lineup enough opportunities to clear the number.

• GARY'S PICK

  TANNER BIBEEK'S UNDER 5.5

  MLBCleveland Guardians· -146

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Bibee has finished below six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts and averages only 4.6 per start this season. His fastballs have produced modest swing-and-miss rates, and recent command trouble creates a second path to the under by driving up his pitch count. Baltimore’s lineup does carry real strikeout risk, so six is certainly reachable, but Bibee has not consistently converted his innings into that many punchouts.

  ×

  Tanner Bibee
  K'S under 5.5

  -146 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Cleveland Guardians

  Read Gary’s Take

  Bibee has finished below six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts and averages only 4.6 per start this season. His fastballs have produced modest swing-and-miss rates, and recent command trouble creates a second path to the under by driving up his pitch count. Baltimore’s lineup does carry real strikeout risk, so six is certainly reachable, but Bibee has not consistently converted his innings into that many punchouts.

• THE LONG SHOT

  NATHANIEL LOWEHR OVER 0.5

  MLBCleveland Guardians· +575

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  The price puts me on Lowe for the long shot. All 16 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and Young has surrendered eight homers across his last six starts. Lowe also showed his pull-side damage with last night’s three-run shot. Batting fifth costs him some plate-appearance equity, and Young has limited left-handed hitters overall, but +575 is enough compensation for a power matchup that only needs to connect once.

  ×

  Nathaniel Lowe
  HR over 0.5

  +575 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Cleveland Guardians

  Read Gary’s Take

  The price puts me on Lowe for the long shot. All 16 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and Young has surrendered eight homers across his last six starts. Lowe also showed his pull-side damage with last night’s three-run shot. Batting fifth costs him some plate-appearance equity, and Young has limited left-handed hitters overall, but +575 is enough compensation for a power matchup that only needs to connect once.