Sports picks for Monday, September 7, 2026

218 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· +108

Pérez’s command makes Miami’s favorite price harder to justify. He has 10 walks against 12 strikeouts in his last three starts, and the trouble already showed up at home: his latest home outing required 100 pitches for five innings, with only 56 strikes. I expect those location problems to give New York opportunities to reach base and push Miami into its bullpen. Soto and Benge have specific ways to capitalize. Soto has slugged .619 against four-seam fastballs, while Benge has hit .325 against both four-seamers and sinkers. Those results give Pérez’s current command problems relevance against this lineup. Both hitters have struggled recently, so this bet depends on their ability to punish mistakes today. Tong’s reported recovery of his changeup feel is the other piece carrying the decision. Conine has hit .150 against changeups over 42 plate appearances, giving Tong a plausible answer to an important Miami bat. The reporting still describes uneven command, but the improvement in his secondary pitches gives me reason to expect a competitive start. New York also has workable relief options. Duarte and Núñez last pitched September 2, and Lavender threw only five pitches yesterday. Lavender offers a left-handed option against Miami’s six left-handed hitters. Miami still has Petersen and Faucher coming off an unused Sunday, so I’m assigning New York no automatic advantage simply because other Marlins relievers worked yesterday. The strongest counterargument is Pérez’s .603 OPS allowed against left-handed hitters, which fits much of New York’s lineup. My judgment is that his recent command trouble will limit that advantage, while Tong’s improved changeup will carry into this start. Those are assumptions about today’s performance. A restrictive pitch limit for Tong would change my decision: with Pintaro having covered two innings yesterday, an early planned handoff would put more pressure on New York’s relief options.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· -136

Cantillo’s recent walks are the deciding factor for me because of who can capitalize on them today. He has 12 strikeouts and 13 walks over his last three starts; Rogers has 24 strikeouts and two walks over his last three. I expect that difference in control to give Baltimore more opportunities to build an inning without needing consecutive hits. Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand make those opportunities dangerous. Their OPS marks against left-handed pitching are 1.126 and 1.108, respectively. They also carry .881 and .856 OPS marks over the last 15 days. Encarnacion-Strand’s platoon result covers only 52 at-bats, so it deserves less weight than Mayo’s 127-at-bat sample. Even with that distinction, Baltimore has specific hitters whose matchup and recent production support an offensive improvement. The bullpen situation strengthens that case. Smith threw 27 pitches across two innings yesterday, and he has not pitched the following day after any of his 11 outings of at least 25 pitches. I consider a rest day likely, although it has not been announced. Gaddis has also appeared on three of the last four days. Baltimore has Kittredge and Cano unused over the last three days, while Garcia threw nine pitches Saturday. If Cantillo’s walks shorten his start, Cleveland could face the more difficult relief assignment. Cleveland’s strongest answer is Adell and Ramírez against Rogers: their OPS marks against lefties are .940 and .903. Rogers has also allowed 11 earned runs over his last three starts, so his strikeout-and-walk advantage has not consistently prevented damage. That keeps my confidence moderate. At this price, I judge Baltimore’s combination of control, favorable individual hitting matchups and relief options sufficient to back it. My assumption is that the recent control difference remains meaningful today and Baltimore converts the extra opportunities. Smith’s availability is the unresolved fact most capable of changing the decision: confirmation that he can handle his normal closing assignment would remove an important part of my edge at -136.

Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand make those opportunities dangerous. Their OPS marks against left-handed pitching are 1.126 and 1.108, respectively. They also carry .881 and .856 OPS marks over the last 15 days. Encarnacion-Strand’s platoon result covers only 52 at-bats, so it deserves less weight than Mayo’s 127-at-bat sample. Even with that distinction, Baltimore has specific hitters whose matchup and recent production support an offensive improvement.

The bullpen situation strengthens that case. Smith threw 27 pitches across two innings yesterday, and he has not pitched the following day after any of his 11 outings of at least 25 pitches. I consider a rest day likely, although it has not been announced. Gaddis has also appeared on three of the last four days. Baltimore has Kittredge and Cano unused over the last three days, while Garcia threw nine pitches Saturday. If Cantillo’s walks shorten his start, Cleveland could face the more difficult relief assignment.

Cleveland’s strongest answer is Adell and Ramírez against Rogers: their OPS marks against lefties are .940 and .903. Rogers has also allowed 11 earned runs over his last three starts, so his strikeout-and-walk advantage has not consistently prevented damage. That keeps my confidence moderate.

At this price, I judge Baltimore’s combination of control, favorable individual hitting matchups and relief options sufficient to back it. My assumption is that the recent control difference remains meaningful today and Baltimore converts the extra opportunities. Smith’s availability is the unresolved fact most capable of changing the decision: confirmation that he can handle his normal closing assignment would remove an important part of my edge at -136.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· +146

My judgment is that this price gives Philadelphia too much credit for carrying its starting-pitching advantage through the entire game. Atlanta has a credible path through Holmes to a bullpen that I expect to be better positioned for the decisive outs. The relief assignments carry the most weight. Fuentes pitched two innings on 21 pitches Friday and sat Saturday and Sunday. Lee and Iglesias each threw 13 pitches Sunday after sitting Saturday. Philadelphia’s Duran worked both days, while the setup roles around Bowlan, Kerkering and McFarlane remain unsettled. I allow for Duran to pitch today; this bet does not require his absence. Bowlan also sat Sunday, so Philadelphia has options. My judgment is that Atlanta has the more dependable route through those innings, supported by today’s workloads and the documented role uncertainty in Philadelphia. Holmes’s abbreviated last start was caused by rain. It supplies no reason to expect a restricted outing today. He has allowed three earned runs over his last 14.0 IP, although seven strikeouts and four walks temper how strongly I read those results. Philadelphia’s starting nine are 17-for-75 this series. I expect Holmes to keep Atlanta competitive, but that is a projection—not something the recent ERA establishes. Atlanta also has specific ways to threaten Luzardo. Thomas owns an .820 OPS against left-handed pitching, and Acuña is 7-for-12 with two homers this series. Luzardo has allowed a .713 OPS to right-handed hitters against .371 to left-handed hitters. That gives Atlanta’s right-handed bats a more workable matchup, although their handedness alone does not make them dangerous. The strongest objection is Luzardo himself: his last three starts produced three earned runs, 24 strikeouts and five walks. His suppression of lefties directly matters against Baldwin, Olson and Harris. Harper’s 1.036 OPS against right-handed pitching also makes Holmes’s assignment dangerous. Those facts keep my confidence modest. The working assumptions are that Holmes delivers a competitive normal start and Atlanta can use its principal late-inning options. The unresolved fact that could change my decision is that bullpen availability: a confirmed restriction on Fuentes or Lee would materially weaken the central reason for backing Atlanta. With the documented workloads, I judge the Braves’ full-game chances sufficient for the offered return.

The relief assignments carry the most weight. Fuentes pitched two innings on 21 pitches Friday and sat Saturday and Sunday. Lee and Iglesias each threw 13 pitches Sunday after sitting Saturday. Philadelphia’s Duran worked both days, while the setup roles around Bowlan, Kerkering and McFarlane remain unsettled. I allow for Duran to pitch today; this bet does not require his absence. Bowlan also sat Sunday, so Philadelphia has options. My judgment is that Atlanta has the more dependable route through those innings, supported by today’s workloads and the documented role uncertainty in Philadelphia.

Holmes’s abbreviated last start was caused by rain. It supplies no reason to expect a restricted outing today. He has allowed three earned runs over his last 14.0 IP, although seven strikeouts and four walks temper how strongly I read those results. Philadelphia’s starting nine are 17-for-75 this series. I expect Holmes to keep Atlanta competitive, but that is a projection—not something the recent ERA establishes.

Atlanta also has specific ways to threaten Luzardo. Thomas owns an .820 OPS against left-handed pitching, and Acuña is 7-for-12 with two homers this series. Luzardo has allowed a .713 OPS to right-handed hitters against .371 to left-handed hitters. That gives Atlanta’s right-handed bats a more workable matchup, although their handedness alone does not make them dangerous.

The strongest objection is Luzardo himself: his last three starts produced three earned runs, 24 strikeouts and five walks. His suppression of lefties directly matters against Baldwin, Olson and Harris. Harper’s 1.036 OPS against right-handed pitching also makes Holmes’s assignment dangerous. Those facts keep my confidence modest.

The working assumptions are that Holmes delivers a competitive normal start and Atlanta can use its principal late-inning options. The unresolved fact that could change my decision is that bullpen availability: a confirmed restriction on Fuentes or Lee would materially weaken the central reason for backing Atlanta. With the documented workloads, I judge the Braves’ full-game chances sufficient for the offered return.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -116

Arizona’s recent bullpen success is the part of this price I’m challenging. Law opens today after Garcia, Morillo, Ginkel and Loáisiga all pitched Saturday and Sunday. Loáisiga threw 36 pitches across those games, Morillo 32 and Ginkel 26. Arizona now needs to cover an opener game while deciding how much more to ask of the pitchers who protected those wins. I think that makes Kansas City worth the small favorite’s price. The Royals have a more favorable route through their pitching staff today. Pearson and Cruz last pitched September 3, while Kimbrel sat Sunday after working Saturday. Cameron’s last three starts produced a 3.38 ERA, and his season matchup against right-handed hitters matters here: a .659 OPS allowed over 442 at-bats. Arizona’s confirmed lineup consists of right-handed and switch hitters. Loading that lineup against a lefty does not automatically create an advantage against this particular pitcher. Kansas City also gets Jensen back after Sunday’s day off. His .793 OPS against right-handers and Pasquantino’s .767 give the Royals credible bats near the top against Law. Across the field, Carroll starts on the bench despite a .942 OPS against left-handers. That helps Cameron’s initial assignment, although Carroll remains a potential option later. There are meaningful objections. Caglianone’s fresh elbow injury removes an .864 OPS bat against right-handed pitching from Kansas City’s lineup. Marte and Moreno give Arizona legitimate threats against Cameron. And Arizona’s late relievers have not been ruled unavailable: Garcia threw only three pitches Sunday, so I am allowing for him to contribute. My assumption is that Cameron provides enough innings for Kansas City to reach its less recently used relief options, while Arizona’s consecutive-day usage limits some of its preferred choices. The workload is established; its effect on today’s deployment is my judgment. That supports a modest Royals edge. The unresolved detail most capable of changing this bet is Arizona’s pitching plan behind Law. A substantial bulk assignment for Cabrera, together with normal availability for the late-inning group, would weaken the central reason I’m paying this price.

The Royals have a more favorable route through their pitching staff today. Pearson and Cruz last pitched September 3, while Kimbrel sat Sunday after working Saturday. Cameron’s last three starts produced a 3.38 ERA, and his season matchup against right-handed hitters matters here: a .659 OPS allowed over 442 at-bats. Arizona’s confirmed lineup consists of right-handed and switch hitters. Loading that lineup against a lefty does not automatically create an advantage against this particular pitcher.

Kansas City also gets Jensen back after Sunday’s day off. His .793 OPS against right-handers and Pasquantino’s .767 give the Royals credible bats near the top against Law. Across the field, Carroll starts on the bench despite a .942 OPS against left-handers. That helps Cameron’s initial assignment, although Carroll remains a potential option later.

There are meaningful objections. Caglianone’s fresh elbow injury removes an .864 OPS bat against right-handed pitching from Kansas City’s lineup. Marte and Moreno give Arizona legitimate threats against Cameron. And Arizona’s late relievers have not been ruled unavailable: Garcia threw only three pitches Sunday, so I am allowing for him to contribute.

My assumption is that Cameron provides enough innings for Kansas City to reach its less recently used relief options, while Arizona’s consecutive-day usage limits some of its preferred choices. The workload is established; its effect on today’s deployment is my judgment. That supports a modest Royals edge.

The unresolved detail most capable of changing this bet is Arizona’s pitching plan behind Law. A substantial bulk assignment for Cabrera, together with normal availability for the late-inning group, would weaken the central reason I’m paying this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· -142

Bello’s recent work gives the Angels a credible opening, and their bullpen rest helps support the extra run we’re buying. His latest appearance required 69 pitches for 3.0 innings, with seven hits, two walks, four earned runs and no strikeouts. His previous outing also included four earned runs. Boston’s recent pitching success came with different starters; I expect this assignment to give Los Angeles more offensive opportunities. Neto and Trout provide a specific reason to believe those opportunities can produce runs. They have hit .321 and .362 against sinkers, respectively, and the sinker is Bello’s most-used pitch. Those results span different pitchers, so they support the matchup without guaranteeing it. My judgment is that the Angels’ top order can generate enough offense to make the run protection valuable. Rodriguez has delivered a 2.41 ERA across his last three starts, covering 18.2 innings. Every Angels reliever had yesterday off, which gives Los Angeles flexibility after his departure. That matters when preventing an additional Boston run can decide the ticket. Boston still has rested relief options, particularly Whitlock; this bet does not depend on Chapman being unavailable. The strongest argument against us is Rodriguez’s vulnerability to left-handed hitters: a .929 OPS allowed, with continued damage in his recent outings. Gasper’s .563 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs across 59 plate appearances is particularly relevant against Rodriguez’s primary pitch. Boston has a clear route to extra-base damage, and the Angels’ two shutouts in their last three games show the risk of insufficient support. I’m judging the combination of early scoring opportunities, Rodriguez’s recent innings coverage and rested relief sufficient to justify -142. That assumes Rodriguez contains Boston’s left-handed top order well enough and Bello receives a meaningful starting assignment. The unresolved detail that could change my decision is Boston’s intended workload for Bello: a confirmed brief appearance with an early handoff to rested relief would reduce the exposure this bet is counting on.

Neto and Trout provide a specific reason to believe those opportunities can produce runs. They have hit .321 and .362 against sinkers, respectively, and the sinker is Bello’s most-used pitch. Those results span different pitchers, so they support the matchup without guaranteeing it. My judgment is that the Angels’ top order can generate enough offense to make the run protection valuable.

Rodriguez has delivered a 2.41 ERA across his last three starts, covering 18.2 innings. Every Angels reliever had yesterday off, which gives Los Angeles flexibility after his departure. That matters when preventing an additional Boston run can decide the ticket. Boston still has rested relief options, particularly Whitlock; this bet does not depend on Chapman being unavailable.

The strongest argument against us is Rodriguez’s vulnerability to left-handed hitters: a .929 OPS allowed, with continued damage in his recent outings. Gasper’s .563 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs across 59 plate appearances is particularly relevant against Rodriguez’s primary pitch. Boston has a clear route to extra-base damage, and the Angels’ two shutouts in their last three games show the risk of insufficient support.

I’m judging the combination of early scoring opportunities, Rodriguez’s recent innings coverage and rested relief sufficient to justify -142. That assumes Rodriguez contains Boston’s left-handed top order well enough and Bello receives a meaningful starting assignment. The unresolved detail that could change my decision is Boston’s intended workload for Bello: a confirmed brief appearance with an early handoff to rested relief would reduce the exposure this bet is counting on.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· +102

Minnesota’s rested late-inning group tips this close matchup for me. Gómez, Hoffman and Minter all sat Sunday after throwing seven, 17 and 18 pitches Saturday. Yesterday’s bullpen collapse did not involve that group. Detroit’s relief work improved in Cleveland, but Jansen, Holton, Kinley and Sommers pitched Sunday, and Finnegan worked consecutive days. That supports a modest Minnesota advantage in recent workload, without assuming Detroit’s relievers are unavailable. Melton’s recent performance gives Minnesota a credible route to reaching those late innings in position to win. He allowed 11 earned runs in 18.0 innings across his last three starts. His season splits also matter against this order: left-handed hitters have a .716 OPS against him, versus .517 for right-handers. Minnesota can hit from the left side through its left-handed bats and switch-hitters. Brooks Lee, Clemens and Larnach each have stronger season production against right-handed pitching. I give that combination more weight tonight than Melton’s excellent overall ERA, while recognizing that a short rough stretch does not erase his effective season. Detroit’s strongest counterargument is its opportunity against Ryan. Greene’s two-homer Saturday and two-hit Sunday are tangible evidence of production since returning, and both Greene and McGonigle have productive season results against four-seamers—the pitch Ryan uses most. Ryan’s positive rehab reporting supports improvement from his pre-injury struggles, but does not establish how effectively he will pitch today. My assumption is that Ryan provides enough competitive innings for Minnesota to reach its rested late-game options without an extended middle-relief exposure. A confirmed restrictive workload limit without an available bulk option would change my assessment. With the current information, I give Minnesota a narrow overall edge; the plus-money price makes that the bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Brewers· +106

Chicago’s lineup makes this look closer to an even game than Milwaukee’s favorite price suggests. Gasser has allowed an .829 OPS to right-handed hitters, compared with .572 to lefties. The Cubs can attack that split with Suzuki, Bregman and Taylor, whose OPS figures against left-handed pitching are .992, .863 and .954. Even their left-handed leadoff hitter, Crow-Armstrong, has a .952 OPS against lefties. That matchup carries my decision more than either club’s recent record. The opportunity extends into the middle innings. Boyd has supplied more consistent innings coverage in his listed recent starts. If Chicago makes Gasser work through an early exit, Milwaukee faces difficult relief choices: Anderson is on the injured list, and Romero threw 35 pitches yesterday after 13 the previous day. Anderson’s absence is not an additional fatigue penalty—his 44 pitches yesterday already made substantial work today unlikely. Chicago has its own constraint after Rea’s 61 pitches, but Zeferjahn and Rolison both had yesterday off. Milwaukee’s strongest counterargument is its finish. Megill rested through the weekend, and Uribe threw only four pitches yesterday. Gasser has also allowed less hard contact than Boyd, while Boyd’s heavily used four-seamer has been vulnerable. Chicago therefore needs to make its lineup advantage count; simply reaching Milwaukee’s bullpen does not guarantee a favorable matchup. Suzuki’s recent 4-for-26 stretch also keeps his strong season platoon numbers from being an automatic forecast. My assumption is that Chicago generates enough early pressure, with Boyd providing enough innings, to make this approximately an even contest. The plus price makes that judgment worth backing, with modest confidence. The unresolved fact that could change it is Milwaukee’s actual middle-relief capacity today: if Patrick and the recalled replacement can cover substantial innings effectively, the concern about an early Gasser exit shrinks. This is a bet on Chicago’s matchup and the price, not a claim that Milwaukee’s entire bullpen is exhausted.

The opportunity extends into the middle innings. Boyd has supplied more consistent innings coverage in his listed recent starts. If Chicago makes Gasser work through an early exit, Milwaukee faces difficult relief choices: Anderson is on the injured list, and Romero threw 35 pitches yesterday after 13 the previous day. Anderson’s absence is not an additional fatigue penalty—his 44 pitches yesterday already made substantial work today unlikely. Chicago has its own constraint after Rea’s 61 pitches, but Zeferjahn and Rolison both had yesterday off.

Milwaukee’s strongest counterargument is its finish. Megill rested through the weekend, and Uribe threw only four pitches yesterday. Gasser has also allowed less hard contact than Boyd, while Boyd’s heavily used four-seamer has been vulnerable. Chicago therefore needs to make its lineup advantage count; simply reaching Milwaukee’s bullpen does not guarantee a favorable matchup. Suzuki’s recent 4-for-26 stretch also keeps his strong season platoon numbers from being an automatic forecast.

My assumption is that Chicago generates enough early pressure, with Boyd providing enough innings, to make this approximately an even contest. The plus price makes that judgment worth backing, with modest confidence. The unresolved fact that could change it is Milwaukee’s actual middle-relief capacity today: if Patrick and the recalled replacement can cover substantial innings effectively, the concern about an early Gasser exit shrinks. This is a bet on Chicago’s matchup and the price, not a claim that Milwaukee’s entire bullpen is exhausted.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Florida State Seminoles· -115

Monday night belongs to Tallahassee, with Florida State coming off its opening win and SMU making its season debut on the standalone Labor Day stage. The matchup carrying my decision is SMU’s passing game against Florida State’s coverage. New Mexico State converted 10 of 17 third downs, repeatedly finding quick slants, curls and outs against generous cushions. Florida State recorded three sacks, but those disruptions did not consistently end possessions. The opening for SMU is the access to those throws, rather than an expectation that the same third-down conversion rate repeats. Jennings returns alongside three offensive-line starters to an offense that already features quick passes and misdirection. I expect that combination to test the communication and spacing problems Florida State showed. Florida State has a credible answer through its running game. Kromah gained 115 yards on 14 carries, and the offense produced a 54.4% success rate in the opener. Sustaining that production would help Daniels avoid difficult passing situations and create opportunities for Robinson and Danzy. The late 90-yard touchdown drive also showed Florida State could respond when its opponent closed the gap. SMU’s rebuilt defensive front faces a real test here. What tilts my decision is that Florida State’s production came alongside uneven blocking and protection; the backs helped overcome those problems, but the offense has not demonstrated that the problems are corrected. SMU’s strongest obstacle is sustaining its own execution. Jennings threw three second-half interceptions in the Holiday Bowl, and SMU went scoreless after halftime. That is a concrete example of how an early offensive advantage can disappear. The changed receiving personnel adds another execution challenge. My bet assumes the new targets can execute the quick passing game and Jennings can avoid another stretch of damaging turnovers. Quarterback and offensive-line continuity support that judgment, but they do not guarantee it. I’m taking the spread because I expect SMU’s passing advantage to generate sustained scoring opportunities across four quarters. The unresolved issue most capable of changing my decision is Florida State’s coverage adjustment: if the Seminoles have corrected the spacing and communication that allowed those accessible completions, the main advantage behind this ticket weakens considerably.

Monday night belongs to Tallahassee, with Florida State coming off its opening win and SMU making its season debut on the standalone Labor Day stage.

The matchup carrying my decision is SMU’s passing game against Florida State’s coverage. New Mexico State converted 10 of 17 third downs, repeatedly finding quick slants, curls and outs against generous cushions. Florida State recorded three sacks, but those disruptions did not consistently end possessions. The opening for SMU is the access to those throws, rather than an expectation that the same third-down conversion rate repeats. Jennings returns alongside three offensive-line starters to an offense that already features quick passes and misdirection. I expect that combination to test the communication and spacing problems Florida State showed.

Florida State has a credible answer through its running game. Kromah gained 115 yards on 14 carries, and the offense produced a 54.4% success rate in the opener. Sustaining that production would help Daniels avoid difficult passing situations and create opportunities for Robinson and Danzy. The late 90-yard touchdown drive also showed Florida State could respond when its opponent closed the gap. SMU’s rebuilt defensive front faces a real test here. What tilts my decision is that Florida State’s production came alongside uneven blocking and protection; the backs helped overcome those problems, but the offense has not demonstrated that the problems are corrected.

SMU’s strongest obstacle is sustaining its own execution. Jennings threw three second-half interceptions in the Holiday Bowl, and SMU went scoreless after halftime. That is a concrete example of how an early offensive advantage can disappear. The changed receiving personnel adds another execution challenge. My bet assumes the new targets can execute the quick passing game and Jennings can avoid another stretch of damaging turnovers. Quarterback and offensive-line continuity support that judgment, but they do not guarantee it.

I’m taking the spread because I expect SMU’s passing advantage to generate sustained scoring opportunities across four quarters. The unresolved issue most capable of changing my decision is Florida State’s coverage adjustment: if the Seminoles have corrected the spacing and communication that allowed those accessible completions, the main advantage behind this ticket weakens considerably.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Nationals· +108

Washington’s bullpen situation makes Irvin’s recent short starts particularly important tonight. He needed 94 pitches for 4⅓ innings and 86 pitches for four innings in his latest two starts. San Diego has specific hitters who can make that inefficiency costly: Irvin has allowed a .815 OPS to right-handed batters, while France and Campusano carry .892 and .876 OPS against right-handed pitching. I see a credible route to scoring against Irvin and making Washington cover substantial innings afterward. The relief options behind him carry the decision. Lord threw 39 pitches yesterday and has never worked consecutive days this season. Dion threw 40 and has returned the following day after 25-plus pitches only once in 13 opportunities. I expect Washington to have reduced access to those two tonight; that is a workload judgment, not a confirmed absence. Beeter had yesterday off, but his last two appearances produced six earned runs. Washington has alternatives, including Tolman and Simpson, whose brief major-league records offer limited assurance. San Diego has a more convincing plan for its own relief innings. Matsui last pitched September 4, and Rodriguez needed 11 pitches yesterday. Miller also worked yesterday, but his season includes 13 deployments on consecutive days, making another appearance plausible. Those options matter because Pivetta’s reported allowance is roughly 75 pitches. His improved command in the final rehab outing gives me a reason to expect useful work, while his April results cannot establish how effective he will be tonight. Washington’s strongest counterargument is its left-handed core: Wood has a .975 OPS against right-handers and Abrams a .907. They can put pressure on Pivetta before San Diego reaches its preferred relievers. The inward wind also gives me less reason to expect another power-driven Padres performance, and San Diego’s weaker batting slots leave room for Irvin to contain the offense. My judgment is that the interaction between Irvin’s recent inefficiency, San Diego’s relevant right-handed bats and Washington’s relief choices makes the offered price worthwhile. This assumes Pivetta’s rehab command carries over and San Diego can use its usual late-inning options. Confirmation that Miller and Rodriguez are both unavailable—or that Pivetta faces a materially tighter limit than reported—could change my decision.

The relief options behind him carry the decision. Lord threw 39 pitches yesterday and has never worked consecutive days this season. Dion threw 40 and has returned the following day after 25-plus pitches only once in 13 opportunities. I expect Washington to have reduced access to those two tonight; that is a workload judgment, not a confirmed absence. Beeter had yesterday off, but his last two appearances produced six earned runs. Washington has alternatives, including Tolman and Simpson, whose brief major-league records offer limited assurance.

San Diego has a more convincing plan for its own relief innings. Matsui last pitched September 4, and Rodriguez needed 11 pitches yesterday. Miller also worked yesterday, but his season includes 13 deployments on consecutive days, making another appearance plausible. Those options matter because Pivetta’s reported allowance is roughly 75 pitches. His improved command in the final rehab outing gives me a reason to expect useful work, while his April results cannot establish how effective he will be tonight.

Washington’s strongest counterargument is its left-handed core: Wood has a .975 OPS against right-handers and Abrams a .907. They can put pressure on Pivetta before San Diego reaches its preferred relievers. The inward wind also gives me less reason to expect another power-driven Padres performance, and San Diego’s weaker batting slots leave room for Irvin to contain the offense.

My judgment is that the interaction between Irvin’s recent inefficiency, San Diego’s relevant right-handed bats and Washington’s relief choices makes the offered price worthwhile. This assumes Pivetta’s rehab command carries over and San Diego can use its usual late-inning options. Confirmation that Miller and Rodriguez are both unavailable—or that Pivetta faces a materially tighter limit than reported—could change my decision.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· +114

The bullpen options make the difference for me at this price. Graceffo last pitched September 2 and gives St. Louis an option for multiple innings; O’Brien last worked September 4, throwing 12 pitches. That offers a workable finish if McGreevy keeps the game competitive. San Francisco has rested alternatives in Smith and Harris, but Kuhnel and Seymour would both need a third consecutive day. Another early Webb exit would put pressure on how the Giants cover the remaining innings. Webb has allowed 16 earned runs over his last three starts. His latest outing included nine hits—all singles—and two walks. Returning to Oracle does not automatically resolve that kind of traffic. Burleson’s .925 OPS against right-handers gives the Cardinals an established matchup strength, while Herrera’s four consecutive multi-hit games and Saggese’s three homers in Los Angeles show recent contributions from different parts of this order. Those performances give St. Louis ways to compete without assuming its Colorado scoring carries over unchanged. The strongest argument against this ticket is Devers against McGreevy. Devers owns a 1.009 OPS against right-handers, and McGreevy has surrendered 14 earned runs in his last three starts. Webb also retains the stronger season contact profile and a 3.39 home ERA. I’m giving his recent failures enough weight to narrow the pitching advantage tonight; I’m not assuming that advantage disappears. My working assumptions are that McGreevy keeps the damage manageable and that Graceffo and O’Brien are available for meaningful work. Their appearance dates support that availability judgment. A pregame restriction on either would make me reconsider, especially Graceffo because of his ability to cover multiple innings. With those options available, I judge St. Louis’s chance high enough to back at +114, with modest confidence.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· +144

The hinge for me is Cincinnati’s plan to follow Chase Burns with Brandon Williamson. I expect Burns to provide the better opening pitching, and Williamson gives Cincinnati a credible route through the middle innings. Burns’ slider carries a 52.0% whiff rate; his latest start produced seven strikeouts, one walk and two earned runs over 5⅔ innings. Williamson covered 5⅓ innings on 87 pitches in his return, allowing three earned runs. At a 41.0% break-even requirement, I judge that combined assignment favorably enough to back Cincinnati. The offensive opportunity is specific to Emmet Sheehan’s matchup. Left-handed hitters have produced an .850 OPS and 12 homers against him. JJ Bleday has an .810 OPS against right-handers across 295 at-bats, while Héctor Rodríguez has an .887 OPS in a smaller 61-at-bat sample. Elly De La Cruz also homered in each of Cincinnati’s last two games. Those hitters remain in tonight’s confirmed order. Myers and Brito moving to the bench weakens the transfer from Sunday’s offensive performance, so I’m putting the weight on the hitters actually starting. Los Angeles has meaningful answers. Ohtani returns, and Burns has allowed left-handed hitters substantially better results than right-handed hitters. Scott, Vesia and Phillips received Sunday off, giving the Dodgers favorable options late. Cincinnati’s Pagán and Burke worked consecutive days, although their Sunday outings were only three and seven pitches. Another appearance from either remains an availability assumption. Sheehan’s reported Triple-A rebound also deserves weight when judging his earlier major-league struggles. My central assumption is that Williamson supplies effective middle innings and Cincinnati reaches its late relief with enough offense already generated. His return outing supports that expectation, but it remains a projection from a small current sample. Burns’ exact workload limit is the unresolved fact most likely to change my decision: a brief opening assignment would shift substantially more responsibility to Williamson. The final Dodgers batting order is another material swing point, particularly Betts and Smith’s inclusion. I see a modest price advantage for Cincinnati, with those limits on the case.

The offensive opportunity is specific to Emmet Sheehan’s matchup. Left-handed hitters have produced an .850 OPS and 12 homers against him. JJ Bleday has an .810 OPS against right-handers across 295 at-bats, while Héctor Rodríguez has an .887 OPS in a smaller 61-at-bat sample. Elly De La Cruz also homered in each of Cincinnati’s last two games. Those hitters remain in tonight’s confirmed order. Myers and Brito moving to the bench weakens the transfer from Sunday’s offensive performance, so I’m putting the weight on the hitters actually starting.

Los Angeles has meaningful answers. Ohtani returns, and Burns has allowed left-handed hitters substantially better results than right-handed hitters. Scott, Vesia and Phillips received Sunday off, giving the Dodgers favorable options late. Cincinnati’s Pagán and Burke worked consecutive days, although their Sunday outings were only three and seven pitches. Another appearance from either remains an availability assumption. Sheehan’s reported Triple-A rebound also deserves weight when judging his earlier major-league struggles.

My central assumption is that Williamson supplies effective middle innings and Cincinnati reaches its late relief with enough offense already generated. His return outing supports that expectation, but it remains a projection from a small current sample. Burns’ exact workload limit is the unresolved fact most likely to change my decision: a brief opening assignment would shift substantially more responsibility to Williamson. The final Dodgers batting order is another material swing point, particularly Betts and Smith’s inclusion. I see a modest price advantage for Cincinnati, with those limits on the case.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· +105

Lopez’s improvement is the deciding factor for me. Across his last five starts, he has a 2.40 ERA over 30.0 innings, with 33 strikeouts and nine walks. That gives the Athletics a credible foundation for staying competitive through the starting-pitcher innings. My judgment is that Toronto’s price demands too much separation against the version of Lopez pitching now. Toronto’s lineup presents a selective threat against a lefty. Guerrero, Kirk and Okamoto are the strongest part of that matchup, but Springer has a .674 OPS against lefties, Clement .659 and Lukes .470. Counting Toronto’s right-handed bats overstates how uniformly dangerous this order is for Lopez. The listed nine also have just one homer over the last seven days. That short stretch gets limited weight, but it reinforces the possibility that Toronto’s offensive production comes without a comfortable cushion. The Athletics’ relief options strengthen that case. Harris last pitched September 4, and Medina last pitched September 3. Their usage supports expecting access to useful late innings after the earlier bullpen strain. Alvarado’s consecutive appearances allowing a run remain a concern, so I’m placing particular weight on Harris and Medina being usable. The Athletics have some matchup-specific offensive support, too: Walton has an .843 OPS against right-handed pitching and Gelof .778. Their lineup’s recent power gives them a route to contributing runs, although carrying that production into a matchup with Cease is an assumption. Cease is the strongest argument against this ticket. His recent run prevention and results against both handedness groups deserve substantial weight. Toronto also has Rogers and Varland coming off a Sunday without an appearance. Lopez’s season vulnerability against right-handed hitters remains real, especially against Toronto’s middle order. Those facts keep my confidence measured. The bet rests on Lopez maintaining enough of his recent execution, the listed batting orders holding, and Harris and Medina being available. Their game-time availability is the unresolved fact most capable of changing my decision: a confirmed restriction on either would weaken the Athletics’ ability to prevent Toronto from extending a lead.

Toronto’s lineup presents a selective threat against a lefty. Guerrero, Kirk and Okamoto are the strongest part of that matchup, but Springer has a .674 OPS against lefties, Clement .659 and Lukes .470. Counting Toronto’s right-handed bats overstates how uniformly dangerous this order is for Lopez. The listed nine also have just one homer over the last seven days. That short stretch gets limited weight, but it reinforces the possibility that Toronto’s offensive production comes without a comfortable cushion.

The Athletics’ relief options strengthen that case. Harris last pitched September 4, and Medina last pitched September 3. Their usage supports expecting access to useful late innings after the earlier bullpen strain. Alvarado’s consecutive appearances allowing a run remain a concern, so I’m placing particular weight on Harris and Medina being usable.

The Athletics have some matchup-specific offensive support, too: Walton has an .843 OPS against right-handed pitching and Gelof .778. Their lineup’s recent power gives them a route to contributing runs, although carrying that production into a matchup with Cease is an assumption.

Cease is the strongest argument against this ticket. His recent run prevention and results against both handedness groups deserve substantial weight. Toronto also has Rogers and Varland coming off a Sunday without an appearance. Lopez’s season vulnerability against right-handed hitters remains real, especially against Toronto’s middle order. Those facts keep my confidence measured.

The bet rests on Lopez maintaining enough of his recent execution, the listed batting orders holding, and Harris and Medina being available. Their game-time availability is the unresolved fact most capable of changing my decision: a confirmed restriction on either would weaken the Athletics’ ability to prevent Toronto from extending a lead.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

CARSON BENGETOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· -173

Benge has cleared this in 12 of his last 15 games, and one hit gets us home. He has hit .325 against both four-seamers and sinkers, the two pitches Eury Pérez uses for more than half of his offerings. Pérez has allowed 12 earned runs with 10 walks over his last three starts, including damaging contact against both fastballs in his latest outing. His strong numbers against left-handed hitters keep me from pushing the confidence higher, but Benge batting fourth gives him enough opportunities to justify the price.

THE LONG SHOT

HERIBERTO HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +500

Hernandez has homered six times in his last 15 games and went deep again Sunday. At +500, I am getting a price that implies roughly a one-in-six chance on a hitter with 24 home runs and a premium lineup spot. Tong has relied heavily on a four-seam fastball and cutter, pitches that have allowed a .359 and .414 expected wOBA. His fly-ball tendency adds to the appeal. This is naturally a volatile bet, but Hernandez's current power and the matchup make the number worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

JOE MACKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -135

Mack has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15 games. He owns a .728 OPS against right-handed pitching and enters after collecting a hit and driving in two runs Sunday. Jonah Tong has walked seven hitters in 10 major-league innings, so Mack does not need to solve him cleanly to contribute. Reaching base ahead of Stowers, Hernandez and Conine gives him a path to a run, while Miami's active running game can also create an RBI opportunity at the bottom of the order.

GARY'S PICK

JOEY CANTILLOPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -186

Cantillo has issued 13 walks across his last three starts and cleared this line in four straight. Baltimore's six-game skid does not scare me away because this bet does not require its hitters to rediscover their power—only to make Cantillo work. His season average is 2.5 walks per start, and he has completed enough innings to provide multiple chances even when his command wavers. The price is heavy, but two walks remains the strongest threshold on the board.

GARY'S PICK

TREVOR ROGERSPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -165

Rogers has allowed at least two earned runs in eight consecutive starts and 19 of 26 starts this season. His 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk line over the last three is impressive, but it still came with 11 earned runs in 18.2 innings. Cleveland can attack a left-hander with Jo Adell and José Ramírez, who own .940 and .903 OPS marks against lefties. Rogers has surrendered 15 of his 16 home runs to right-handed hitters, so Cleveland has more than one route to the two earned runs I need.

THE LONG SHOT

COBY MAYOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +750

Mayo is the long shot I want against Cantillo. He has hit 15 of his 19 home runs against left-handed pitching in only 127 at-bats, producing a 1.126 OPS in that split. He is also carrying an .881 OPS over his last 15 days. Cantillo has allowed 13 home runs to right-handed hitters, and his four-seam fastball has generated just a 17.4% whiff rate with a .367 expected weighted on-base average against it. Mayo bats fourth, giving him premium opportunities to see that fastball with traffic in front of him. At +750, his lefty-mashing profile is worth the swing.

GARY'S PICK

DRAKE BALDWINTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -176

I’m taking one base from Baldwin because he gives me the best combination of lineup position and current contact on this board. He is 5-for-14 in the series, has cleared this line in 12 of his last 15, and batting second should protect his plate appearances. The left-on-left matchup is the concern: Luzardo has held left-handed hitters to a .144 average, and his sweeper is a legitimate out pitch. But a single settles this, and Baldwin should also get opportunities against a Philadelphia bullpen that has allowed seven earned runs in eight innings during the series. The price keeps my confidence moderate.

THE LONG SHOT

RONALD ACUNA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +650

Acuña is the home-run swing I want at this price. He is 7-for-12 with two homers in this series and 11-for-25 with two homers over his last seven games. The handedness is important: right-handed hitters have produced a .713 OPS and 14 of the 15 home runs Luzardo has allowed this season. Luzardo’s sweeper can erase any hitter, so this remains a long shot. But Acuña leads off, is seeing the ball exceptionally well, and gets a park that rewards right-handed power. At +650, his current form and matchup give me enough upside to take the shot.

GARY'S PICK

MATT OLSONTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -157

This is a price play more than a form play. Olson is 0-for-11 in the series and 2-for-25 over his last seven games, but he still owns an .814 OPS with 14 home runs against left-handed pitching this season. Batting cleanup gives him several chances to find one base, and -157 is the least expensive total-bases price on the board. Luzardo’s dominance of left-handed hitters is the clear objection. I’m betting Olson gets either a fastball or sinker he can handle, or a later matchup against Philadelphia’s unsettled relief group. One well-struck ball is enough.

GARY'S PICK

GERALDO PERDOMOH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +110

Perdomo has stayed under this number in nine of his last 15 games, and his recent contact has carried little damage: no doubles in that span and a .176 average with a .426 OPS over the last seven days. Cameron has limited right-handed hitters to a .659 OPS, which is the relevant side for switch-hitting Perdomo in this matchup. Batting leadoff gives Perdomo extra chances, but he still needs multiple events to beat this line, and getting plus money on the under is the appeal.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE ISBELH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -156

Isbel has finished below this number in six of his last seven games, including three straight zeros. He owns a .617 OPS, bats ninth and averages only 3.4 plate appearances, so he has fewer opportunities than anyone else in the Kansas City lineup to produce two combined hits, runs and RBIs. Arizona’s bullpen game adds uncertainty, but Isbel’s limited role and current .176 average over the last seven days still support the under.

THE LONG SHOT

CARTER JENSENHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +475

Jensen has homered five times in his last 15 games and owns 19 home runs with a .793 OPS against right-handed pitching. He returns rested after sitting Sunday and moves into the leadoff spot, maximizing his chances against Law and an Arizona staff beginning the day with an opener. Kauffman Stadium keeps this from being a high-conviction swing, but Jensen’s current power, platoon production and expected plate-appearance volume make +475 the best home-run price on this board.

GARY'S PICK

BRAYAN BELLOPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -139

I’m asking the Angels for only two earned runs against a pitcher who has struggled whenever Boston gives him a traditional start. Bello owns a 10.35 ERA across eight starts, and each of his two latest bulk appearances produced four earned runs. His sinker and four-seamer have both allowed substantial contact, giving Neto, Trout and the in-form Meckler favorable pitches to attack. The Angels were shut out twice in Pittsburgh, but Bello is a very different assignment from the pitching they just faced. Fenway also rewards hard contact, and Boston’s plan to use Bello as the starter should give this lineup enough exposure to clear a low number.

GARY'S PICK

BRAYAN BELLOPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -133

Bello allowed seven hits in three innings in his latest appearance and five in 4.1 innings before that. He has permitted a .284 average to left-handed hitters and a .288 average to right-handed hitters, so there is no protected side of the plate here. That matters against an Angels order led by Neto, Trout and Meckler. Trout has multiple hits in consecutive games, Meckler is batting .353 over his last 15 days, and Neto has three hits in nine career at-bats against Bello. With a normal starting assignment creating a path to roughly five innings, I like Los Angeles to collect five hits before Boston turns the game over completely.

THE LONG SHOT

MICKEY GASPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +630

Gasper is the long shot I want at this price. He has five homers in 35 at-bats over his last 15 days and owns a .973 OPS with all eight of his season homers against right-handed pitching. Rodriguez throws his four-seamer more than half the time, but that pitch has generated only a 16.3% whiff rate with a .373 xwOBA allowed. Left-handed hitters have produced a .929 OPS against him, and Gasper will get that side of the matchup near the top of the order. Fenway’s dimensions add another route for a well-struck ball, and +630 pays enough for me to accept the volatility.

GARY'S PICK

KAELEN CULPEPPERHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -145

Culpepper has a hit in 11 of his last 15 games and is batting .283 with a .790 OPS against right-handed pitching. Minnesota also saw Troy Melton six days ago and reached him for six hits and five earned runs. I prefer the hits market to his total-bases market because one hit cashes either bet, and this price is cheaper.

THE LONG SHOT

BROOKS LEEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +650

Lee has gone deep five times in his last 15 games, including Sunday, and already has 23 home runs this season. He also owns a homer in seven career at-bats against Troy Melton. Comerica Park and the wind coming in lower the home-run ceiling, but +650 more than accounts for that risk given Lee's recent power and Melton's 11 earned runs allowed across his last three starts.

GARY'S PICK

JOHN PECKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -168

Peck only needs one contribution, and this market gives him three ways to get there. Joe Ryan is making his first major-league start in 33 days after a glute injury, following a three-start stretch in which he allowed 16 earned runs over 15.1 innings. The price is heavy for a ninth-place hitter with only five games of major-league history, so this is the thinner of my two standard props.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEX BREGMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +700

This price is too large for Bregman’s combination of form and matchup. He has homered four times in his last seven games and owns an .863 OPS against left-handed pitching. Gasser has allowed an .829 OPS to right-handed hitters, with 11 of his 13 home runs surrendered coming from that side. Bregman bats third in a hitter-friendly park and should receive multiple chances to attack Gasser’s vulnerable sinker and cutter. At +700, I only need one mistake.

GARY'S PICK

ROBERT GASSERPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +105

I’m taking the plus money against Gasser’s recent command. He has issued at least two walks in four of his last five starts, while this Cubs lineup draws a walk in roughly 10% of its plate appearances. Chicago also sends six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters at a pitcher who has been considerably more vulnerable against righties. His recent short outings limit the available time, but deeper counts should give us enough chances to cash two walks.

GARY'S PICK

BRICE TURANGH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -109

Turang has cleared this number in eight of his last 15 games, and batting second gives him several ways to get there. He collected two hits against Boyd six days ago and enters after a two-hit, three-RBI game. Chourio can give him an RBI opportunity from the leadoff spot, while Contreras and Vaughn provide strong production behind him against left-handed pitching. Boyd’s success against lefties is the clear concern, so I’m keeping the confidence modest.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE IRVINPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -150

Irvin has issued at least two walks in six of his last eight starts and averages 2.2 per start this season. His fastball and sinker each generate a chase rate below 20%, giving a patient Padres lineup opportunities to extend counts. The price is substantial, but 1.5 remains low enough for me to back his recurring command trouble.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE IRVINPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -134

Irvin has recorded 16 outs in only three of his last eight starts. He needed 94 pitches to complete 4⅓ innings two starts ago and 86 pitches for four innings last time out. San Diego can pressure him with its right-handed bats, particularly Ty France, and Irvin's walk tendency creates another route to an early exit. Washington has incentive to stretch him after Brad Lord and Will Dion carried heavy workloads yesterday, but recent efficiency says the sixth inning is not a safe assumption.

THE LONG SHOT

TY FRANCEHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +525

France is my long-shot choice because his strengths line up with Irvin's trouble against right-handed hitters. France owns a .298 average and .892 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Irvin has allowed righties an .815 OPS and has surrendered a homer in six of his last eight starts. Petco Park and the wind coming in lower the home-run expectation, but +525 pays me adequately to take a cleanup hitter with 20 homers and the matchup's clearest reverse-split advantage.

GARY'S PICK

SHAY WHITCOMBHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +105

I’m willing to bet Whitcomb records no hit at plus money. He has gone hitless in 10 of his last 15 games and owns a .131 average with 22 strikeouts in 61 at-bats. Batting eighth also limits his opportunities; he averages only 2.4 plate appearances per game. McGreevy has allowed right-handed hitters a .255 average, so this is not a dominant pitching matchup, but Whitcomb’s contact problems and likely lack of a fourth trip to the plate make under 0.5 hits the better side at +105.

THE LONG SHOT

RAFAEL DEVERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +360

Devers is the one home-run price I want. He has gone deep eight times in his last 15 games, owns a 1.009 OPS with 28 homers against right-handed pitching, and has already homered twice in five career at-bats against McGreevy. The pitch matchup reinforces it: McGreevy’s four-seamer has allowed a .396 xwOBA and his cutter a .446 xwOBA, two vulnerable offerings against a left-handed power bat this locked in. Oracle Park cuts into the projection, but the short right-field corner and wind blowing out keep the long ball in play. At +360, Devers’ current form and direct matchup justify taking the shot.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL MCGREEVYPITCHER OUTS OVER 15.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -115

I need McGreevy to finish the sixth inning, and Oracle Park gives him a favorable setting to do it. He has completed at least 5⅓ innings in four of his last eight starts and averages 16.4 outs this season. The bottom four hitters in San Francisco’s lineup all carry an OPS of .622 or lower, giving him a path to efficient innings even if Devers and the top of the order create traffic. St. Louis has also asked its bullpen for 26⅓ innings over the last five games, while Hjerpe threw 54 pitches yesterday and Gastelum worked on consecutive days. McGreevy’s recent 8.22 ERA is the clear risk, but the park, lineup depth and bullpen workload are enough for me to play the over at a modest price.

GARY'S PICK

EMMET SHEEHANPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -136

Sheehan has allowed at least two earned runs in five of his last eight starts, including five runs and three homers in only 2⅔ innings in his most recent major-league outing. Left-handed hitters own an .850 OPS with 12 homers against him, and Cincinnati puts Héctor Rodríguez, Elly De La Cruz and JJ Bleday in prominent spots. With the Reds averaging 6.7 runs over their last 10 games, I expect them to get two across before Sheehan's spot assignment ends.

GARY'S PICK

EMMET SHEEHANK'S UNDER 6.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -136

Seven strikeouts asks Sheehan to clear a number he has reached in only two of his last eight starts. He averages 5.4 strikeouts per start and has completed six innings just three times this season. After 35 days away from the major-league rotation, I expect Los Angeles to manage this spot start carefully. Cincinnati can strike out, but Sheehan likely needs both premium efficiency and a longer leash than I project to reach seven.

THE LONG SHOT

HECTOR RODRIGUEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +650

Rodríguez gets the long-shot swing because the matchup and price meet in the right place. He owns an .887 OPS with four homers in 61 at-bats against right-handed pitching, has gone deep five times in his first 87 major-league at-bats and bats leadoff tonight. Sheehan has allowed 20 homers in 20 starts, with left-handed hitters accounting for 12 of them and an .850 OPS. Rodríguez should get multiple chances against him, and +650 compensates for the volatility.

GARY'S PICK

BRETT BATEMANSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -142

Bateman owns the right shape for a singles prop: a .347 average, only four extra-base hits in 101 at-bats and at least one single in 11 of his last 15 games. Leading off should give him four or five chances, and he has hit .333 against left-handed pitching. Lopez has handled lefties well, but Bateman’s contact ability and opportunity make one single worth laying this price.

GARY'S PICK

VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.WALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -150

Guerrero has gone without a walk in 12 of his last 15 games, and Lopez has issued only nine across his last five starts. Lopez has been much more vulnerable when right-handed hitters put the ball in play, so I expect him to attack Guerrero rather than create free traffic with Kirk and Okamoto behind him. Lopez’s season-long walk rate keeps this from being a higher-confidence play at -150.

THE LONG SHOT

ZACK GELOFHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +650

The price is the reason I’m taking Gelof against an elite starter. He has 17 homers in 327 at-bats, 12 against right-handed pitching, and three over his last seven games. He also gets four-plus expected plate appearances in a hitter-friendly park after already showing he can handle premium velocity. Cease’s slider, low barrel rate and two homers allowed to right-handed hitters make this a true long shot, but +650 pays enough for Gelof’s current power to be worth the swing.

Hub research

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FANTASY USAGEat SEA
Rhamondre Stevenson
START: Use Stevenson as an RB2 or flex before the early Seattle kickoff Why now: The provider forecasts 13.6 carries, three receptions and 11.1–14.1 points across formats. That receiving estimate matches his three-catch average over the supplied five-game 2025 baseline, giving him more than one path to usable volume. Who it fits: Managers needing an RB2 or flex in standard, half-PPR or PPR before kickoff against Seattle. The risk: There are no completed 2026 games, his start is unconfirmed, and the historical rushing average is lifted by a 131-yard finale. Watch next: Check his active status and any official backfield or starting update before kickoff. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 09, 08:20 PM ET.
THE SWEATSMU @ FSU
THE NUMBER
SMU Mustangs -2.5 -115
FANTASY USAGEvs SF
Matthew Stafford
START: Prefer Stafford to Stroud or Young when choosing a Week 1 quarterback Why now: The provider projects Stafford for 17.5 points, ahead of Stroud's 16.2 and Young's 15.7. Stafford also averaged 326.8 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns in the supplied five-game 2025 baseline, although that is historical rather than current form. Who it fits: One-QB or superflex managers choosing among Stafford, Stroud and Young for Week 1. The risk: Stafford's start is not confirmed, and the supporting performance sample is 246 days old. Watch next: Verify his active status and any official starting-quarterback update before kickoff against San Francisco. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 10, 08:35 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs NYJ
Carnell Tate
START: Tate is the best supplied fringe-receiver start in reception formats Why now: The provider estimates 6.9 targets and 12 PPR points, compared with 9.3 for Vele and 9.1 for Tucker. That makes Tate the preferred PPR or half-PPR flex from this group, but the call rests on a forecast rather than an observed NFL role. Who it fits: Managers choosing a final receiver or flex between Tate, Vele and Tucker in PPR or half-PPR. The risk: Tate is a rookie with no completed 2026 regular-season sample, and his start is not confirmed. Watch next: Check his active status and any official starting update before kickoff against the Jets. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 13, 01:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Juwan Johnson
CONSIDER ADD: Check whether Johnson is available if PPR tight end is unsettled Why now: The provider forecasts 4.1 receptions and 8.8 PPR points, narrowly above Schultz's 8.4 and clearly above Sadiq's 5.1. Johnson's supplied five-game 2025 baseline averaged 4.6 catches and 62.6 yards, useful supporting history but not proof of his 2026 role. Who it fits: PPR or half-PPR managers needing a tight-end option, conditional on Johnson actually being available in their league. The risk: He is already rostered in 45.4% of the provider's leagues, availability is unknown, and his last five supplied games contained no touchdowns. Watch next: Check league availability, active status and any official starting update; after Week 1, review targets and receptions. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs ATL
Michael Pittman Jr.
HOLD: Keep Pittman for PPR utility, but do not treat him as a format-neutral starter Why now: The provider forecast is reception-dependent: 5.2 catches produce 12.3 PPR points but only 7.2 in standard. His supplied late-2025 baseline was much weaker at 4.0 catches, 32.8 yards and no touchdowns, yet all five games came with Indianapolis rather than his currently verified Pittsburgh team. Who it fits: PPR managers who can hold Pittman as receiver depth or a matchup flex while his Pittsburgh role becomes observable. The risk: There is no completed 2026 sample or confirmed start, so the projected target increase may not materialize on his new team. Watch next: Check his active status before kickoff, then review Week 1 targets, receptions and receiving yards before changing the roster view. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DET
Devaughn Vele
CONSIDER ADD: Vele is a conditional deep-PPR add for managers prioritizing catches Why now: The provider projects six targets, 3.9 receptions and 9.3 PPR points, slightly ahead of Tucker's 9.1. Vele also averaged four catches and 50.8 yards in the supplied five-game 2025 baseline, which supports the profile without establishing his current role. Who it fits: Deep PPR leagues needing receiver depth, provided Vele is actually available; Tate remains the stronger supplied Week 1 lineup option. The risk: His historical sample is 267 days old, his start is unconfirmed and provider ownership does not establish availability in your league. Watch next: Check league availability and active status, then compare his Week 1 targets and receptions with Tucker's usage. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs CLE
Bhayshul Tuten
WATCH: Make Tuten prove the projected workload before treating it as established Why now: The provider estimates 15 carries and 10.7–12.9 fantasy points, but his supplied five-game 2025 baseline averaged only 4.6 carries and 13.8 rushing yards. With no completed 2026 observations, that projected role change is the decision point rather than established usage. Who it fits: Managers holding Tuten or evaluating him for future RB or flex use in any supplied scoring format. The risk: Waiting could leave points on the bench if the 15-carry estimate is accurate, but starting him assumes a workload not yet observed. Watch next: Review his active status, whether he starts, and his Week 1 carries and targets against Cleveland. Evidence as of Sep 07, 11:00 PM ET.
REPLACEMENTSMU @ FSU
Devin Carter (WR) is out for FSU
FSU’s remaining receivers have to divide his routes and targets, thinning the offense’s pass-catching rotation. OUT on the final report means there is no game-time decision left; the impact is entirely on FSU’s offense.
HEAD-TO-HEADATL @ PHI
Braves are 9-2 vs Phillies this season
Atlanta’s 9-2 edge matters, but the last one-run finish keeps me from treating it as decisive. I lean Braves without calling the matchup solved.
REPLACEMENTSMU @ FSU
Christian Rhodes (RB) is out for SMU
His share of the backfield work now shifts to the remaining available backs, increasing their rushing and protection responsibilities. The final OUT designation removes him from SMU’s offensive plan tonight.
REPLACEMENTSMU @ FSU
EJ Kelly (RB) is out for SMU
SMU’s healthy running backs must cover his carries and any pass-protection assignments in the rotation. OUT this close to kickoff is final, so the strain falls on SMU’s offensive backfield.
REPLACEMENTSMU @ FSU
Link Rhodes (RB) is out for SMU
SMU has one fewer back available to spell the lead options, so the remaining group must absorb the snaps. OUT on the final availability report means he will not dress, leaving the offense with reduced backfield depth.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ BOS
Angels 1-7 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 8 starts
The Angels have lost seven of Rodriguez’s last eight starts, making his turn a recurring problem for the club. Boston can put them under pressure immediately.
TEAM RECORDCHC @ MIL
Brewers 7-1 in Robert Gasser's last 8 starts
Milwaukee is 7-1 in Gasser’s last eight starts, and the pattern is still carrying weight. I trust the Brewers to give him the support needed against Chicago.
HEAD-TO-HEADMIN @ DET
Twins are 9-3 vs Tigers this season
Minnesota’s 9-3 season-series advantage outweighs Detroit’s latest offensive response. I still give the Twins the stronger read, though another open game would narrow that edge.
TEAM RECORDATL @ PHI
Braves 7-1 in Grant Holmes's last 8 starts
Atlanta keeps finding wins behind Holmes, going 7-1 across his last eight starts. That repeatable team success gives the Braves a credible path tonight.
TEAM RECORDCIN @ LAD
Dodgers 1-7 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts
The Dodgers are 1-7 across Sheehan’s last eight starts, and the slide has only gotten worse recently. I’m cautious about trusting Los Angeles to turn his outing into a win tonight.
HEAT CHECKSTL @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.373 OPS in Last 15 Days
Devers’ surge looks legitimate, with established power behind the 1.373 OPS. Over 1.5 total bases is my cleanest way to play it.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
BULLPENCIN @ LAD
Cincinnati Reds pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cincinnati’s bullpen is stretched, with Burke and Pagán especially difficult to count on after consecutive-day work. If the Reds do not get length, the Dodgers can attack a compromised middle-to-late bridge.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Mayo gets the left-hander he wants while batting cleanup. That combination gives him an immediate chance to cash in any traffic Baltimore creates.
P 2-for-5, 8 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADNYM @ MIA
Marlins are 10-5 vs Mets this season
Miami’s 10-5 control of this series is meaningful, and the latest shutout strengthens the case. At home, I give the Marlins’ sustained success real weight.
THE SWEATSMU @ FSU
AIR
SMU Mustangs -2.5 -115
THE SWEATSMU @ FSU
GROUND
SMU Mustangs -2.5 -115
PLATOON EDGESTL @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Devers gets his preferred right-handed matchup against McGreevy and should see plenty of opportunities from the second spot. His left-handed power has a clear edge tonight.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
STREAKCLE @ BAL
BAL have lost 6 straight
Baltimore’s six-game skid looks like a run of losing decisive moments rather than getting overwhelmed nightly. Home field offers a reset, but Cleveland faces a club with almost no margin for error.
P team won 4-6
HEAT CHECKWSH @ SD
Daylen Lile: 1.240 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lile is genuinely hot, but 1.240 is too far above his baseline to price as permanent. Against San Diego, over 1.5 total bases probably needs one extra-base hit.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
STARTER FORMMIN @ DET
Joe Ryan: 9.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan’s 9.39 ERA over three starts reflects sustained traffic, not one disastrous inning. Detroit should get repeated chances to punish him if his command of baserunners does not return.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
PLATOON EDGENYM @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 3rd against Jonah Tong (RHP)
Conine hits third and gets the right-handed look that puts him on his stronger side. That gives him an early opportunity to drive in the top of Miami’s order.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFWSH @ SD
CJ Abrams: .340 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams’ .340 OPS looks like a hitter whose timing and approach are both off. San Diego is a prove-it matchup, so I am staying away at a normal price.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ SF
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Logan Webb (RHP)
Alec Burleson gets the handedness that unlocks his best offense from the third spot. Logan Webb still has to respect the heart of this St. Louis order.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKARI @ KC
Carter Jensen: 1.252 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jensen’s heater has enough substance to respect, even if 1.252 is not his new baseline. At home against Arizona, I like his power to carry him over 1.5 total bases.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDATL @ PHI
Phillies 6-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 8 starts
Philadelphia has won six of Luzardo’s last eight starts and every one of his recent turns. That gives the Phillies legitimate momentum behind him against Atlanta.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ OAK
Blue Jays 6-2 in Dylan Cease's last 8 starts
Toronto is consistently converting Cease’s starts into wins, taking six of his last eight. I give the Blue Jays the stronger team angle in Oakland.
COOLING OFFSTL @ SF
Alec Burleson: .418 OPS in Last 15 Days
Burleson’s .418 OPS has persisted long enough to call this a genuine cold spell. I am staying away until the quality of his contact returns.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKLAA @ BOS
Mickey Gasper: 1.456 OPS in Last 15 Days
Gasper’s 1.456 OPS is a real heater, but the smaller sample keeps me measured. He can clear 1.5 total bases against the Angels, likely through multiple hits unless the power shows up again.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEATL @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper batting third against a right-hander is a premium setup. He can influence the game immediately, whether he is extending an inning or driving runners home.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ BAL
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (bats R) hits 6th against Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Encarnacion-Strand brings real damage potential to the sixth spot, and Cantillo’s left-handed look puts him on the favorable side. He can punish any traffic that reaches the lower half.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMNYM @ MIA
Eury Perez: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Perez’s 8.53 ERA over his last three starts comes with too much traffic and too little damage control. The Mets are positioned to turn those baserunners into a crooked inning.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFATL @ PHI
Matt Olson: .464 OPS in Last 15 Days
Olson’s season résumé creates rebound potential, but his .464 OPS says the damage is not there right now. He is a buy-low option, not a centerpiece.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGELAA @ BOS
Wade Meckler (bats L) hits 3rd against Brayan Bello (RHP)
Meckler’s place in the three-hole lets his stronger side matter in a key part of the lineup. Bello’s right-handed look gives him a chance to create an early scoring opportunity.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ SF
Bryan Torres (bats L) draws Logan Webb (RHP), batting 1st
Bryan Torres leads off with the platoon advantage against Logan Webb, giving him repeated chances to start innings from his stronger side.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ KC
Corbin Carroll: .486 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carroll’s .486 OPS reflects a real loss of rhythm rather than a few unlucky outs. Kansas City offers a reset opportunity, but I need a slump-adjusted price to back him.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERSTL @ SF
Wind blowing out 15 mph at Oracle Park tonight
A 15 mph wind blowing out makes Oracle Park more forgiving to lifted contact, especially through the middle. With such a low total, one ball in the air could change the game quickly.
P final total 9 vs 7.5 (over lean)
PLATOON EDGENYM @ MIA
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Jonah Tong (RHP), batting 1st
Stowers leads off with the platoon advantage against Tong, maximizing both his opportunities and his influence. He can pressure this matchup from the opening pitch.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKATL @ PHI
Sean Murphy: 1.308 OPS in Last 15 Days
Murphy’s 1.308 OPS looks more like a timely power burst than a new baseline. Over 1.5 total bases is live, but it probably depends on him punishing one Philadelphia mistake.
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ OAK
Blue Jays are 3-0 vs Athletics this season
Toronto controlled the first three meetings, but a short sweep does not define the matchup after the move to Oakland. I treat the 3-0 record as supporting context only.
COOLING OFFTOR @ OAK
Ernie Clement: .369 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jacob Lopez
Clement’s .369 OPS over the last 15 days looks rooted in weak form, not merely poor fortune. Lopez also forces him onto his less productive side, reinforcing the fade tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADLAA @ BOS
Red Sox are 3-0 vs Angels this season
Boston’s 3-0 mark came from one short set, and the latest 7-5 game was competitive. I give that sweep very little influence over tonight by itself.
STARTER FORMSTL @ SF
Michael McGreevy: 8.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
McGreevy’s recent 8.22 ERA shows a sharp deterioration from his broader work. San Francisco should get repeated chances to build innings against him.
P 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
BULLPENCHC @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Milwaukee’s bullpen has absorbed 13.7 innings, with Anderson and Romero likely limited and other length options already taxed. An early exit from the starter would give Chicago a real opening in the middle innings.
HEAT CHECKCIN @ LAD
Elly De La Cruz: 1.140 OPS in Last 15 Days
Elly’s 1.140 OPS is backed by enough opportunities and an already strong baseline to look real. Even against the Dodgers, his power gives over 1.5 total bases a direct path.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
COOLING OFFARI @ KC
Nolan Arenado: .409 OPS in Last 15 Days
Arenado’s .409 OPS covers enough plate appearances to make the slump meaningful. I see a possible turnaround in Kansas City, not dependable production.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ MIA
Juan Soto (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Soto gets his best platoon side against the right-handed Perez and should be involved immediately from the second spot. The setup keeps his left-handed bat central to everything New York does offensively.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ MIL
Michael Conforto: 1.500 OPS in Last 15 Days
Conforto’s 1.500 OPS is scorching, though the tiny sample makes it a heater rather than established form. His best route tonight is catching one Milwaukee mistake with the power stroke still sharp.
REGRESSIONTOR @ OAK
Brett Bateman: .347 AVG vs .261 xBA
Bateman’s .347 average sits well above his .261 expected mark, which points toward cooling results. I see more downside than upside in his hitting overs tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENWSH @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego’s bullpen has been busy, but its primary late-inning arms should still be available. Washington’s best chance comes if the Padres need bulk coverage before they can shorten the game.
HR THREATGuardians @ Orioles
Coby Mayo
Gary's Take Mayo is the long shot I want against Cantillo. He has hit 15 of his 19 home runs against left-handed pitching in only 127 at-bats, producing a 1.126 OPS in that split.
P 2 HR — 2-for-5, 8 TB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ OAK
Lawrence Butler: .981 OPS in Last 15 Days
Butler’s .981 OPS looks like a meaningful rebound without proving he has become a different hitter. Over 0.5 total bases matches the improved contact and keeps the ask sensible.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATCardinals @ Giants
Rafael Devers
Gary's Take Devers is the one home-run price I want. He has gone deep eight times in his last 15 games, owns a 1.009 OPS with 28 homers against right-handed pitching, and has already homered twice in five career at-bats against McGreevy.
P 0 HR — 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKATL @ PHI
Bryce Harper: 1.185 OPS in Last 15 Days
Harper’s 1.185 OPS is credible form from a hitter with the track record to sustain damage. One extra-base hit can cash over 1.5 total bases, making that the angle I prefer.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIN @ DET
Kevin McGonigle: .524 OPS in Last 15 Days
McGonigle has cooled, but his larger body of work keeps me from treating the .524 OPS as a collapse. He is a reasonable buy-low candidate if the market has overcorrected.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HR THREATMets @ Marlins
Heriberto Hernandez
Gary's Take Hernandez has homered six times in his last 15 games and went deep again Sunday. At +500, I am getting a price that implies roughly a one-in-six chance on a hitter with 24 home runs and a premium lineup spot.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMLAA @ BOS
Grayson Rodriguez: 2.41 ERA over his last 3 starts
Rodriguez has tightened everything up across his last three starts, posting a 2.41 ERA while still missing bats. The Angels are facing his improved current version, not his ugly season number.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
HEAT CHECKCIN @ LAD
Hector Rodriguez: 1.084 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hector Rodriguez’s 1.084 OPS has lasted long enough to respect, even if it exceeds his established level. Over 0.5 total bases only asks him to produce one hit.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ OAK
Nathan Lukes: 1.018 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nathan Lukes’ 1.018 OPS across 44 plate appearances gives his current timing real weight. Over 0.5 total bases captures that form without demanding another huge performance.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFCLE @ BAL
Samuel Basallo: .368 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Joey Cantillo
Cantillo is exactly the wrong draw for a slumping Basallo. His poor season work against lefties makes this an easy spot for me to avoid.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
TOMORROWTB @ ATL
AJ Smith-Shawver: 7.13 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
AJ Smith-Shawver’s 7.13 ERA overstates the damage, with his 4.33 xERA pointing toward improvement. I expect a correction against Tampa Bay, not sudden dominance.
COOLING OFFMIN @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .453 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dingler’s .453 OPS sits too far below his normal production to dismiss. Against Minnesota, he is strictly a rebound angle and not a hitter I trust for immediate damage.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMMIN @ DET
Troy Melton: 5.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Melton’s 5.50 ERA over his last three starts reflects more hard contact and constant traffic. Minnesota is well positioned to force long innings and punish pitches left in the zone.
P 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
PLATOON EDGEARI @ KC
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 3rd against Derek Law (RHP)
Pasquantino hits third and gets the right-handed look that strengthens his role in the middle of Kansas City’s attack. He is well positioned to connect the table-setters with the run producers.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFCLE @ BAL
Nathaniel Lowe: .497 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lowe’s .497 OPS has lasted long enough to signal a genuinely poor swing. Baltimore is a test rather than an automatic rebound spot, so I will not pay his usual price.
P 1-for-1, 4 TB
HR THREATAngels @ Red Sox
Mickey Gasper
Gary's Take Gasper is the long shot I want at this price. He has five homers in 35 at-bats over his last 15 days and owns a .973 OPS with all eight of his season homers against right-handed pitching.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENSTL @ SF
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis has covered 14 relief innings in three games, with Gastelum likely down and several repeat-use arms facing shorter leashes. Another early exit would expose the less-used middle of the bullpen to San Francisco.
COOLING OFFCHC @ MIL
Brice Turang: .538 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turang is running well below his established level, but this cold spell is still short enough to reverse quickly. I just do not see a matchup-specific reason to force the rebound tonight.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGELAA @ BOS
Roman Anthony (bats L) draws Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), batting 1st
Anthony leads off against a right-hander, maximizing his trips from the stronger side. Rodriguez has to deal with that pressure immediately and every time the lineup turns over.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWCOL @ NYY
Gabriel Hughes: 6.19 ERA vs 3.65 xERA
Hughes’ 6.19 ERA overstates how poorly he has pitched, with a 3.65 xERA and encouraging contact indicators pointing toward correction. I rate him as a rebound candidate even in a difficult matchup with New York.
STARTER FORMCIN @ LAD
Emmet Sheehan: 8.31 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sheehan’s 8.31 ERA over his last three starts comes with too little length and too much damage once runners reach. Cincinnati should have chances to pressure him early and force the Dodgers into their bullpen.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
TOMORROWTOR @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.5 ERA vs 4.04 xERA
Perkins deserves better than his 6.50 ERA, but the 4.04 xERA does not erase a concerning barrel rate. I expect some improvement while keeping the rebound lean modest against Toronto.
NEXT SLATENFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
COOLING OFFWSH @ SD
Nasim Nunez: .219 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nunez’s .219 OPS is a serious collapse from an already modest season line. There is not enough established production here for me to assume an automatic rebound tonight.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADARI @ KC
Diamondbacks are 2-0 vs Royals this season
Arizona handled the first two meetings, but two games do not establish a meaningful pattern. I place very little weight on the 2-0 mark in Kansas City.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ BAL
Guardians are 3-1 vs Orioles this season
Cleveland’s 3-1 edge includes a convincing four-run win, so it carries some weight. The sample remains small, making this a Guardians lean rather than a commanding matchup advantage.
COOLING OFFSTL @ SF
Jung Hoo Lee: .479 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lee’s recent production has fallen far below his season level, but the sample remains small enough to turn quickly. I’m accounting for the slump without pretending the season-long hitter has disappeared.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKATL @ PHI
Jesus Luzardo owns a 4.52 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 1.76 everywhere else
Luzardo’s 4.52 ERA at Citizens Bank Park is too large a split to ignore, even if the park is not the whole explanation. Atlanta has a better chance to pressure him early than his overall performance might suggest.
P 9 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
STARTER FORMCIN @ LAD
Chase Burns: 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts
Burns’ 5.65 ERA over his last three starts comes with constant traffic and diminished control of innings. That is a dangerous profile against a Dodgers lineup built to cash repeated chances.
P 3 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFATL @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .335 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grant Holmes
Marsh’s .335 OPS over the last 15 days is ugly, but the smaller sample leaves room for the results to be lagging behind his true ability. Holmes gives him his stronger side, making this a plausible slump-breaking matchup.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
STARTER FORMTOR @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts
Lopez has found a sharper level lately, producing a 2.12 ERA with enough swing-and-miss ability to support it. Oakland is getting the in-form version of him.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
QUARTERBACKSMU @ FSU
Ashton Daniels leads FSU's passing this season
FSU is getting solid efficiency through the air, but the even touchdown-to-interception split says clean ball security has not come with it. SMU will test whether Daniels can keep drives moving without giving a possession back.
BULLPENCLE @ BAL
Cleveland Guardians pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cleveland has no obvious shutdown arm, but 13.7 relief innings have reduced the available length behind the starter. Baltimore’s opportunity is to force an early bullpen call and reach the thinner layer before the late matchups settle.
BULLPENTOR @ OAK
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto’s 13.7 relief innings look manageable because the work has been distributed and no key arm is clearly forced down. Oakland needs to create a bulk-innings problem before the Blue Jays can turn to their fresher short relievers.
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/7
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with a forearm injury, carrying a 4.50 ERA. His listed return date is September 7, but that’s a roster listing—not a promise. Stash only if you have an open IL spot; the forearm issue makes him too risky to hold otherwise.
REGRESSIONMIN @ DET
Troy Melton: 2.2 ERA vs 3.58 xERA
Melton’s 2.20 ERA is running ahead of a 3.58 xERA, and his modest strikeout rate leaves little margin if the contact turns. Minnesota gets a better matchup than the surface number advertises.
P 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONSTL @ SF
Michael McGreevy: 3.97 ERA vs 5.36 xERA
McGreevy’s 3.97 ERA is not supported by the hard contact, barrels or low strikeout rate behind it. I price him closer to the 5.36 xERA and expect San Francisco to create damage.
P 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
BATTER VS ARMCHC @ MIL
William Contreras vs Matthew Boyd: .417
William Contreras has hit Matthew Boyd at a .417 clip and already shown power in the matchup. With Contreras swinging well, he has another opportunity to attack Boyd early.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCHC @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn: .312 AVG vs .268 xBA
Andrew Vaughn’s .312 average is running well above his .268 expected mark. Against Milwaukee, I would rather anticipate a quieter line than chase another big performance.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
REGRESSIONCIN @ LAD
Emmet Sheehan: 5.29 ERA vs 3.98 xERA
Sheehan’s strikeouts and expected average support improvement from his 5.29 ERA toward the 3.98 expected mark. The elevated barrel rate remains the warning, because Cincinnati can still punish the contact he leaves over the plate.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/8
Jake Fraley
Fraley is on Tampa Bay’s 60-day IL with a groin injury and a .690 OPS. His listed return date is September 8, one day away, but it guarantees nothing. Leave him on the wire outside deep leagues; the season line does not justify a speculative stash.
PARK WEATHERCHC @ MIL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at American Family Field tonight
A 10 mph wind blowing in should outweigh the warm air and take away some easy carry at American Family Field. Both offenses will need line drives and sustained traffic rather than routine fly-ball power.
P final total 7 vs 5.5 (under lean)
REGRESSIONTOR @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 4.71 ERA vs 3.4 xERA
Lopez’s 4.71 ERA looks inflated beside a 3.40 xERA, with soft contact and a low barrel rate supporting improvement. I expect the stronger underlying version to show up in Oakland.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
REGRESSIONWSH @ SD
Ty France: .290 AVG vs .251 xBA
Ty France’s .290 average sits well above his .251 expected mark across a meaningful sample. I expect fewer hits and less damage against San Diego than his results suggest.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADCHC @ MIL
Brewers are 7-6 vs Cubs this season
Milwaukee’s 7-6 record against Chicago shows how little separates these teams after 13 meetings. The one-run result last time fits a matchup usually decided at the margins.
REGRESSIONLAA @ BOS
Wade Meckler: .297 AVG vs .259 xBA
Meckler’s .297 average has run ahead of the quality of his contact. Tonight looks like a spot where a few of those balls that found grass start turning into outs.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONWSH @ SD
Luis Campusano: .285 AVG vs .247 xBA
Luis Campusano’s contact supports a useful hitter, but not quite the .285 average he has produced against a .247 expected mark. I lean toward a step back tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ SD
Nationals are 2-1 vs Padres this season
Washington’s 2-1 edge came from one brief series and says almost nothing definitive. I am not carrying that result into San Diego as a meaningful advantage.
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/9
Lucas Giolito
Giolito is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury, carrying a 5.16 ERA. His listed return date is September 9, two days away, but it is only a roster listing. Do not stash outside the deepest formats; the elbow issue and 5.16 ERA make the gamble hard to defend.
TOMORROWCIN @ LAD
Nick Lodolo: 5.08 ERA vs 6.51 xERA
Lodolo’s 5.08 ERA may actually flatter him, with a 6.51 xERA and damaging contact pointing toward more trouble. The Dodgers are a brutal opponent for that correction to arrive against.
BALLPARKARI @ KC
Noah Cameron owns a 4.95 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 3.31 everywhere else
Cameron’s 4.95 home ERA and elevated contact suggest a real pitcher-specific issue at Kauffman Stadium. Arizona can pressure him early if that pattern continues.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONATL @ PHI
Grant Holmes: 3.62 ERA vs 4.73 xERA
Holmes’ 3.62 ERA is vulnerable beside a 4.73 xERA, especially with the hard-hit rate and modest strikeout total working against him. Philadelphia is capable of making that regression visible tonight.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
BATTER VS ARMCHC @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn vs Matthew Boyd: .231
The .231 average does not capture how well Vaughn has managed his matchups with Boyd. His patience can get him on base or earn him a count where he can do damage tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TOMORROWHOU @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 5.55 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
Painter’s 5.55 ERA looks harsher than the contact quality deserves, with a 4.33 xERA pointing toward improvement. I expect a better showing against Houston than the surface number implies.
TOMORROWMIN @ DET
Dean Kremer: 5.8 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Kremer’s 5.80 ERA should improve toward his 4.60 xERA, but the contact indicators do not support a dramatic rebound. I see limited buy-low value against Detroit.
QUARTERBACKSMU @ FSU
Kevin Jennings is SMU's returning passer on 2025 numbers
SMU’s offense leaned on Jennings for real volume and strong efficiency, with plenty of touchdowns coming alongside too many interceptions. FSU will test whether that aggressive passing style can produce without the giveaways cutting drives short.
BALLPARKLAA @ BOS
At Fenway Park, Brayan Bello pitches to a 4.34 ERA
Fenway itself is not Bello’s biggest issue, but a 4.34 home ERA still comes with too much traffic. The Angels should get opportunities tonight even in his better venue split.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONSTL @ SF
San Francisco Giants are 12-25 in one-run games (.324 win%)
San Francisco’s 12-25 record in one-run games is too extreme to treat as stable. I see the Giants as stronger than that record suggests when the market discounts them for close-game losses.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/11
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is on Arizona’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury and a 4.97 ERA. His listed return date is September 11, four days away, but it remains only a roster listing. Pass in standard leagues and stash only in very deep formats with a free IL slot.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a rib injury, carrying a 3.18 ERA. His listed return date is September 11, four days away, but that date is not a promise. Deep-league stash only; standard-league managers can wait for an actual roster move.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Robert Garcia
Garcia is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and a 3.38 ERA. His listed return date is September 11, four days away, without any guarantee he returns then. A reasonable deep-league IL stash if you need relief pitching, but not a priority in standard leagues.
TOMORROWSTL @ SF
Quinn Mathews: 4.38 ERA vs 3.32 xERA
Mathews’ 4.38 ERA is badly out of line with a 3.32 xERA, tiny barrel rate and major batting-average gap. This is one of my stronger rebound reads against San Francisco.
TOMORROWTB @ ATL
Freddy Peralta: 4.96 ERA vs 3.9 xERA
Peralta’s 4.96 ERA carries clear bad-luck signals, particularly the low barrel rate and expected batting-average gap. I rate him closer to the 3.90 xERA and expect some correction against Atlanta.
BATTER VS ARMMIN @ DET
Riley Greene vs Joe Ryan: .364
Greene’s .364 mark against Ryan reflects a matchup he has handled with confident, consistent contact. In his current form, he is well positioned to punish a mistake in the zone.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
REGRESSIONMIN @ DET
Detroit Tigers are 13-26 in one-run games (.333 win%)
Detroit’s 13-26 record in one-run games reflects too much variance to assume it will continue. The Tigers may be stronger than their overall record and market price indicate.
REGRESSIONNYM @ MIA
Javier Sanoja: .289 AVG vs .266 xBA
Sanoja’s .289 average has outrun the .266 expected mark, and his broader production has exceeded what the contact supports. Against New York tonight, I expect fewer balls in play to turn into favorable outcomes.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWTOR @ OAK
José Soriano: 3.52 ERA vs 4.48 xERA
Soriano’s 3.52 ERA has received help from favorable contact results, while the 4.48 xERA points to greater vulnerability. Oakland has a better scoring opportunity than his surface performance suggests.
RUNNING GAMELAA @ BOS
Boston Red Sox like to run — Tyler Heineman (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Boston likes to pressure teams on the bases, but Heineman’s 35% caught-stealing rate makes that aggression dangerous tonight. I still expect the Red Sox to test him, with one failed attempt capable of killing a promising inning.
P Boston Red Sox stole 1 base
REGRESSIONATL @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 24-13 in one-run games (.649 win%)
Philadelphia’s 24-13 record in one-run games is impressive but unlikely to remain that favorable. I am careful about paying a premium for a team whose record has benefited from close-game variance.
FIRST INNINGWSH @ SD
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Washington’s slow-start trend should hold in the top half, but I’m not calling the full inning safe with Irvin facing San Diego. The Padres are the side more likely to break through early.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
SITUATIONALSMU @ FSU
No. 19 SMU at Florida State
The poll gives SMU the respect edge, but at 0-0 that No. 19 spot is inherited from preseason belief, not earned on the field this season. Going into an unranked Florida State venue, SMU has more to lose because a loss would immediately put that ranking in doubt.
FIRST INNINGSTL @ SF
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
This is the cleanest scoreless-first setup of the three. Webb should handle St. Louis, and McGreevy has a good chance to match him in the bottom half.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGARI @ KC
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Cameron is set up to keep Arizona’s first-inning drought going after the Diamondbacks scored in just one of their last 10 opening frames. I expect a quiet top half before Kansas City gets its first look.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Cardinals ML +114
MLB · 4-5
L
Padres -1.5 +108
MLB · 2-3
L
Reds ML +144
MLB · 3-6
L
Royals ML -116
MLB · 5-4
W
Athletics +1.5 +105
MLB · 5-6
W
SMU Mustangs -2.5 -115
NCAAF · 27-24
L
Braves ML +146
MLB · 0-1
W
Mets ML +108
MLB · 9-4
L
Angels +1.5 -142
MLB · 2-5
W
Orioles ML -136
MLB · 4-6
L
Cubs ML +106
MLB · 3-4
L
Twins ML +102
MLB · 4-5

Props

L
Alex Bregman · over
Cubs @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Brayan Bello · over
Angels @ Red Sox · Actual 4
L
Brayan Bello · over
Angels @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Brett Bateman · over
Blue Jays @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Brice Turang · over
Cubs @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Brooks Lee · over
Twins @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Marlins · Actual 1
L
Carter Jensen · over
Diamondbacks @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Coby Mayo · over
Guardians @ Orioles · Actual 2
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Braves @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Emmet Sheehan · under
Reds @ Dodgers · Actual 10
L
Emmet Sheehan · over
Reds @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
Geraldo Perdomo · under
Diamondbacks @ Royals · Actual 3
L
Hector Rodriguez · over
Reds @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Mets @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Jake Irvin · over
Nationals @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Jake Irvin · under
Nationals @ Padres · Actual 17
L
Joe Mack · over
Mets @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Joey Cantillo · over
Guardians @ Orioles · Actual 5
W
John Peck · over
Twins @ Tigers · Actual 1
W
Kaelen Culpepper · over
Twins @ Tigers · Actual 2
W
Kyle Isbel · under
Diamondbacks @ Royals · Actual 1
W
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Phillies · Actual 1
W
Michael McGreevy · over
Cardinals @ Giants · Actual 20
L
Mickey Gasper · over
Angels @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Cardinals @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Robert Gasser · over
Cubs @ Brewers · Actual 2
L
Ronald Acuna Jr. · over
Braves @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Shay Whitcomb · under
Cardinals @ Giants · Actual 2
L
Trevor Rogers · over
Guardians @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Ty France · over
Nationals @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · under
Blue Jays @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Zack Gelof · over
Blue Jays @ Athletics · Actual 0