MLB · Mon, Sep 7 · 1:10 PM

Mets at Marlins

O/U 13.5 · RL Marlins -1.5 · loanDepot park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· +108

Pérez’s command makes Miami’s favorite price harder to justify. He has 10 walks against 12 strikeouts in his last three starts, and the trouble already showed up at home: his latest home outing required 100 pitches for five innings, with only 56 strikes. I expect those location problems to give New York opportunities to reach base and push Miami into its bullpen. Soto and Benge have specific ways to capitalize. Soto has slugged .619 against four-seam fastballs, while Benge has hit .325 against both four-seamers and sinkers. Those results give Pérez’s current command problems relevance against this lineup. Both hitters have struggled recently, so this bet depends on their ability to punish mistakes today. Tong’s reported recovery of his changeup feel is the other piece carrying the decision. Conine has hit .150 against changeups over 42 plate appearances, giving Tong a plausible answer to an important Miami bat. The reporting still describes uneven command, but the improvement in his secondary pitches gives me reason to expect a competitive start. New York also has workable relief options. Duarte and Núñez last pitched September 2, and Lavender threw only five pitches yesterday. Lavender offers a left-handed option against Miami’s six left-handed hitters. Miami still has Petersen and Faucher coming off an unused Sunday, so I’m assigning New York no automatic advantage simply because other Marlins relievers worked yesterday. The strongest counterargument is Pérez’s .603 OPS allowed against left-handed hitters, which fits much of New York’s lineup. My judgment is that his recent command trouble will limit that advantage, while Tong’s improved changeup will carry into this start. Those are assumptions about today’s performance. A restrictive pitch limit for Tong would change my decision: with Pintaro having covered two innings yesterday, an early planned handoff would put more pressure on New York’s relief options.

The pick & result

Published pick: Mets ML +108
Published odds: +108
Result: Won
Final score: 9-4

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 18 moves

Market	Opened Sep 7 5:00 AM	Close Sep 7 4:30 PM	Move
SPREAD	Mets +1.5 (-200)	Mets -4.5 (-1300)	+3
MONEYLINE	Mets +100	Mets -10000	−10100

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENSep 7 5:00 AM	Mets +1.5 (-200)	—	Mets +100 · Marlins -120
Sep 7 7:15 AM	Mets +1.5 (-205)	—	Mets +100 · Marlins -120
Sep 7 8:00 AM	Mets -1.5 (+165)	—	Mets +100 · Marlins -120
Sep 7 9:00 AM	Mets +1.5 (-205)	—	Mets +100 · Marlins -120
Sep 7 10:11 AM	Mets +1.5 (-190)	—	Mets +110 · Marlins -130
Sep 7 10:31 AM	Mets +1.5 (-185)	—	Mets +110 · Marlins -130
Sep 7 10:31 AM	Mets +1.5 (-185)	—	Mets +110 · Marlins -130
Sep 7 10:43 AM	Mets +1.5 (-180)	—	Mets +110 · Marlins -130
Sep 7 11:00 AM	Mets +1.5 (-185)	—	Mets +115 · Marlins -140
Sep 7 11:16 AM	Mets +1.5 (-180)	—	Mets +115 · Marlins -140
Sep 7 11:48 AM	Mets +1.5 (-185)	—	Mets +115 · Marlins -140
Sep 7 11:57 AM	Mets +1.5 (-180)	—	Mets +115 · Marlins -140
Sep 7 12:05 PM	Mets +1.5 (-185)	—	Mets +115 · Marlins -140
Sep 7 12:35 PM	Mets +1.5 (-180)	—	Mets +115 · Marlins -140
Sep 7 1:20 PM	Mets -1.5 (+100)	—	Mets -165 · Marlins +125
Sep 7 1:20 PM	Mets -1.5 (+100)	—	Mets -165 · Marlins +125
Sep 7 3:38 PM	Mets -4.5 (-180)	—	Mets -5000 · Marlins +1700
Sep 7 4:03 PM	Mets -5.5 (+250)	—	Mets -10000 · Marlins +2500
CLOSESep 7 4:30 PM	Mets -4.5 (-1300)	—	Mets -10000 · Marlins +2500

The read

Soto and Benge have specific ways to capitalize. Soto has slugged .619 against four-seam fastballs, while Benge has hit .325 against both four-seamers and sinkers. Those results give Pérez’s current command problems relevance against this lineup. Both hitters have struggled recently, so this bet depends on their ability to punish mistakes today.

Tong’s reported recovery of his changeup feel is the other piece carrying the decision. Conine has hit .150 against changeups over 42 plate appearances, giving Tong a plausible answer to an important Miami bat. The reporting still describes uneven command, but the improvement in his secondary pitches gives me reason to expect a competitive start.

New York also has workable relief options. Duarte and Núñez last pitched September 2, and Lavender threw only five pitches yesterday. Lavender offers a left-handed option against Miami’s six left-handed hitters. Miami still has Petersen and Faucher coming off an unused Sunday, so I’m assigning New York no automatic advantage simply because other Marlins relievers worked yesterday.

The strongest counterargument is Pérez’s .603 OPS allowed against left-handed hitters, which fits much of New York’s lineup. My judgment is that his recent command trouble will limit that advantage, while Tong’s improved changeup will carry into this start. Those are assumptions about today’s performance. A restrictive pitch limit for Tong would change my decision: with Pintaro having covered two innings yesterday, an early planned handoff would put more pressure on New York’s relief options.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Eury Perez: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
8.53
Perez’s 8.53 ERA over his last three starts comes with too much traffic and too little damage control. The Mets are positioned to turn those baserunners into a crooked inning.

PLATOON EDGE

Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 3rd against Jonah Tong (RHP)
.941
Conine hits third and gets the right-handed look that puts him on his stronger side. That gives him an early opportunity to drive in the top of Miami’s order.
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Jonah Tong (RHP), batting 1st
.873
Stowers leads off with the platoon advantage against Tong, maximizing both his opportunities and his influence. He can pressure this matchup from the opening pitch.
Juan Soto (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
1.010
Soto gets his best platoon side against the right-handed Perez and should be involved immediately from the second spot. The setup keeps his left-handed bat central to everything New York does offensively.

HR THREAT

Heriberto Hernandez
+500
Gary's Take Hernandez has homered six times in his last 15 games and went deep again Sunday. At +500, I am getting a price that implies roughly a one-in-six chance on a hitter with 24 home runs and a premium lineup spot.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Marlins are 10-5 vs Mets this season
10-5
Miami’s 10-5 control of this series is meaningful, and the latest shutout strengthens the case. At home, I give the Marlins’ sustained success real weight.

REGRESSION

Javier Sanoja: .289 AVG vs .266 xBA
.266
Sanoja’s .289 average has outrun the .266 expected mark, and his broader production has exceeded what the contact supports. Against New York tonight, I expect fewer balls in play to turn into favorable outcomes.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored September 7, 2026 at 10:42 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CARSON BENGETOTAL BASES OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Mets· -173
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Benge has cleared this in 12 of his last 15 games, and one hit gets us home. He has hit .325 against both four-seamers and sinkers, the two pitches Eury Pérez uses for more than half of his offerings. Pérez has allowed 12 earned runs with 10 walks over his last three starts, including damaging contact against both fastballs in his latest outing. His strong numbers against left-handed hitters keep me from pushing the confidence higher, but Benge batting fourth gives him enough opportunities to justify the price.
Carson Benge
Total Bases over 0.5
-173 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
New York Mets
Benge has cleared this in 12 of his last 15 games, and one hit gets us home. He has hit .325 against both four-seamers and sinkers, the two pitches Eury Pérez uses for more than half of his offerings.
Pérez has allowed 12 earned runs with 10 walks over his last three starts, including damaging contact against both fastballs in his latest outing. His strong numbers against left-handed hitters keep me from pushing the confidence higher, but Benge batting fourth gives him enough opportunities to justify the price.
THE LONG SHOT
HERIBERTO HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5
MLBMiami Marlins· +500
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Hernandez has homered six times in his last 15 games and went deep again Sunday. At +500, I am getting a price that implies roughly a one-in-six chance on a hitter with 24 home runs and a premium lineup spot. Tong has relied heavily on a four-seam fastball and cutter, pitches that have allowed a .359 and .414 expected wOBA. His fly-ball tendency adds to the appeal. This is naturally a volatile bet, but Hernandez's current power and the matchup make the number worth taking.
Heriberto Hernandez
HR over 0.5
+500 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Miami Marlins
Hernandez has homered six times in his last 15 games and went deep again Sunday. At +500, I am getting a price that implies roughly a one-in-six chance on a hitter with 24 home runs and a premium lineup spot.
Tong has relied heavily on a four-seam fastball and cutter, pitches that have allowed a .359 and .414 expected wOBA. His fly-ball tendency adds to the appeal. This is naturally a volatile bet, but Hernandez's current power and the matchup make the number worth taking.
GARY'S PICK
JOE MACKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
MLBMiami Marlins· -135
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Mack has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15 games. He owns a .728 OPS against right-handed pitching and enters after collecting a hit and driving in two runs Sunday. Jonah Tong has walked seven hitters in 10 major-league innings, so Mack does not need to solve him cleanly to contribute. Reaching base ahead of Stowers, Hernandez and Conine gives him a path to a run, while Miami's active running game can also create an RBI opportunity at the bottom of the order.
Joe Mack
H+R+RBI over 0.5
-135 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Miami Marlins
Mack has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 10 of his last 15 games. He owns a .728 OPS against right-handed pitching and enters after collecting a hit and driving in two runs Sunday.
Jonah Tong has walked seven hitters in 10 major-league innings, so Mack does not need to solve him cleanly to contribute. Reaching base ahead of Stowers, Hernandez and Conine gives him a path to a run, while Miami's active running game can also create an RBI opportunity at the bottom of the order.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every MLB game this day The MLB record Today's MLB picks Every sport this day